Market Commentary: Black Sea Instability and Trade War Influences
There were some jitters this week as Russia and Ukraine stepped up assaults ahead of what may become talks to end the conflict. Alongside concerns about a kinetic war is the uncertainty around the incoming Trump Administration’s aggressions in trade policy.It should be noted that geopolitical u...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Once again, placements surprised to the upside compared to pre-report analysts’ consensus expectations. The total cattle on feed inventory was 11.986 million head, which was slightly above last year’s 11.956 million head. Total feedlot inve...
WPI Quarterly Grain Balance Sheet Forecasts
The latest updates and model runs from WPI’s grain balance sheet and pricing forecasts show that corn and wheat are likely to see stronger-than-expected demand that should create upside potential for cash and futures markets. Conversely, soybeans are expected to see weaker demand (particularly...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 22 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 November 2024By Matt HerringtonThe major story behind dry bulk freight markets remains the same: slack demand causing additional weakness in rates. The downturn in rates is accelerating as markets head into the holiday season, which is usually a lull period for freig...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Fall on Export Data
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex finding their way into the red for various reasons. Wheat initially rallied on rising tensions and attacks between Rusia and Ukraine, with Ukraine accusing Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missil...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
The monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 100 percent of last year’s 11.9 million head, at a range of estimates between 99.5 percent and 101.3 percent of 1 November 2023. This would be 11.6 mil...
Oilseed Highlights: Continued Pressure from South America and Policy Uncertainties
The MarketDespite a decent USDA Export Sales report, the market continues to be weighed down by the large developing South American soybean crop. Soybean prices rose in the overnight market on short-covering but they resumed their decline on Thursday, falling below trendline support. March soyb...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volumes were muted on Wednesday and other than the KC wheat market and soyoil futures, none of the major ag markets made major technical moves. Ma...
Turkey is a Turkey
And we don’t mean Türkiye. Turkey can mean unsuccessful and the production and trade in the domesticated large bird called the turkey leaves much to be desired. It originated in North America and that is where it has mostly stayed. The U.S. produces about half the world’s turkey meat. U.S. and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 November 2024Russian Union of Grain producers and exporters announced that winter wheat area for 2025/26 may drop to 15.4 Mha which will be the smallest planted winter crops area since 2018/19. Particularly, wheat area may drop by 0.9 Mha to 16.3 Mha, and after wi...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior Russia or bearishness from favorable weather in South America. Based solely upon that statement, you can probably figure out which markets d...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
Farm Bill Deficiencies; Transatlantic Tensions; GMO Correction
Farm Bill DeficienciesU.S. Senate Democrats have finally laid down their marker in a bicameral negotiation over a farm bill renewal. In it, Democrats conceded to a House Republican initiative to double spending on export promotion programs. However, they did not accept the Republican position t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt’s strategic wheat reserves are at 4.6 months. This is a little lower than usual due to delays in wheat shipments from Russia.Iraq advises that is has sent 50 truckloads of aid to Syria, mainly wheat. The aid will be used to support...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock margins continue to be characterized by weakness in the packing sector and strength in producer profitability. Last week, both beef and pork packer margins fell due to weakness in meat prices and beef margins scored their third straight weekly loss and pork margins their second. The d...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 18 November)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Agriculture Committees in the 119th Congress
With the Republicans maintaining control of the House, Representative G.T. Thompson (R-PA) will retain the gavel as committee chairman, unless he is nominated for Secretary of Agriculture by President-elect Trump. Thompson’s name has been mentioned more frequently as of late as a potential nomi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina is progressing at a steady pace. Last week, the harvested area share increased by 5 percentage points, bringing the total to 17 percent of the sown area. The harvest begins in the north and gradually moves southward. In the northwest, the harvest is nea...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Ukraine War Developments, Fund Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with markets reacting to Friday’s CFTC data as well as news that will impact the Ukraine-Russia war. First, the CFTC data showed managed money traders engaged in a surprise, massive buying spree in corn last week, a move that sparked support in futur...
RFK, Jr. Equals Opportunity; Quarter Century of GMO’s
RFK, Jr. Equals OpportunityRobert F. Kennedy, Jr. wants to eliminate processed foods, artificial colorings, chemicals, and other broadly named boogeymen. He and his ilk are social media trolls that disparage the regulated and regulators alike, fabricating conspiracy theories about Big Food want...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the European Parliament voted on the EUDR regulation and officially delayed the full implementation of the ruling until December 2025.After a soggy start to autumn for most of continental Europe, particularly the western regions, the recent weather and two-week for...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into a near-100,000 contract bullish position. Over the period 5 through 12 November, funds bought over 96,000 contracts, which is the 11th large...
Market Commentary: Today was Green but Headwinds for the Week
Corn, soymeal, live cattle and lean hogs all traded lower during the morning start but by the end of the day, only lean hogs ended lower. There were modest volumes being traded on Friday for most contracts, except feeder cattle where it was nearly double the five-day average.December soymeal hi...
Cow-Calf Margins Steady in November, Herd Expansion Still Likely
Despite recent decreases in feeder cattle futures and rising feedstuff costs, estimated cow-calf producer margins are largely unchanged from WPI’s October estimate. The stable and positive financial environment means that producers are still facing strong financial incentives to expand the U.S...
McSustainability Through Feed Efficiency
McDonalds has entered the sustainability space by partnering with Syngenta and paying cattle producers to use Syngenta’s Enogen Trait corn to improve feed efficiency. Enogen corn contains an enzyme, alpha amylase. This enzyme has been added during the ethanol production process to induce starch...
Livestock Roundup: Turkey Production Adjusted Down
Turkey production in August totaled 434.7 million pounds, slightly above July production but down 11 percent year-over-year. August slaughter was down 15 percent year-over-year, but heavier weights in August (32.25 pounds) offset the reduced slaughter. Based on the August production data, estim...
Market Commentary: Biofuel and Trade Policy Worries Pressure CBOT along with Dollar Strength
The CBOT saw another day of pronounced weakness with expectations for larger global soybean and wheat production and stocks in 2025 weighing on values. Product demand in the soy complex has also been a huge negative factor recently with uncertainty over U.S. biofuels policy causing a sharp redu...
Oilseed Highlights: Multi-Bearish Factors
The MarketThe January soybean contract has been sliding all week and despite support at the 20-day moving average of $10.01/ST, it closed today below $10/bushel for the first time this month. The reasons are many including: a rising dollar value, 2) large impending South American production, 3)...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
EU Studies Trading Houses
As part of its witch hunt for unfair market practices, the EU Parliament’s AGRI Committee requested a study of the major agricultural commodity trading companies and their impacts. The study may inform populists in the U.S. that also see consolidated industries as inherently harmful, but...
USA Gone Nuts
While oilseeds receive much of the attention, tree nuts, which are technically a seed and containing oil, have gone even more gangbusters for U.S. producers in recent years. Almonds have received much of the focus as the U.S. produces nearly 80 percent of the crop and a comparable share of the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Cuban Pipedream
Some in the U.S. agriculture community have spent years trying to improve sales to Cuba, which have increased though from a very small base. Now there is even less reason to think they’ll succeed. Their pipedream has been a hungry population of around 11 million people just 60 miles off the Ame...
Trump’s Tariff Plan; Whither Europe; RTO Beats WFH
Trump’s Tariff PlanFew things attract more speculation than how President-Elect Donald Trump will model his plan to increase tariffs on imports. Some economists have taken his most exaggerated claims and predict they will cause slower economic growth and higher inflation. At least one advisor s...
Political Landscape Taking Shape
After the 2024 elections, the Republicans look to have taken control of Congress, along with a Trump victory, providing a Republican triple sweep. The Senate GOP majority is 53 to 47; and the House GOP majority is still TBD. However, as of today, the Republicans have secured 215 seats, and Demo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
Livestock Industry Margins
WPI is excited to present the latest edition of our newest data-driven publication Ag Perspectives Quant: U.S. Livestock Industry Profit Margins. This report offers a comprehensive look at the profitability of the U.S. beef and pork sectors, from cow-calf and farrow-to-finish producers up the v...
Market Commentary: CBOT Slips as Demand Worries Overtake Supply-Side Surprises
The November WASDE offered mixed influences for the major ag markets with USDA making surprise cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean crops and ending stocks, which rallied markets on Friday. The report also, however, cast doubts on the demand-side outlook for both crops and wheat, and that is what...
Deep Bench to Fight RFK; China Market Risk; Thankless Job
Deep Bench to Fight RFKBeing the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture is usually a pretty good job. It involves doling out billions of dollars, the constituency is dominated by courteous country people, and controversies tend to be minor. The person serving the longest in any Cabinet position was Jame...
Rice as a Stable Crop
Last year, India restricted non-Basmati rice exports believing there would be a weather-related short supply. Production was ample and now the country faces record high inventories that will likely be dumped on the world market. The OECD calculates that Indian farmers are implicitly taxed $120...
Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation
As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely to include a role for electric vehicles, and a renewable fuels policy that will focus on reducing c...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Market Commentary: Somewhat Tumultuous WASDE
The November WASDE report usually involves some tweaking of the numbers by USDA, and that is all it mostly was today, but with some quirky impacts. First, there were a few surprises but not dramatic ones and yet the report spurred larger to outsized volume in trading across the grain and oilsee...
Who Might Be the Next Ag Secretary?
As most Presidents-elect do, former President and President-elect Donald Trump has named his new White House Chief of Staff as his first appointment. It is Susi S. Wiles. Wiles was the co-manager of Trump’s 2024 campaign, and also was a key strategist focused on Florida in his 2016 and 2020 cam...
WPI 2025 Hog and Pork Outlook
U.S. hog producers saw a mixed year in 2024 with early-year prices bringing poor profitability while the dramatic hog rally since the summer has lifted financial fortunes significantly. A major component of those rising prices was the unexpected surge in pork demand, which pushed the cutout to...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Rally on Export Numbers; Cattle Gain on Macro Strength
The CBOT was mixed on Thursday following the news of Donald Trump’s election to President of the United States with markets, particularly corn and cattle futures, seeing continued support from “risk on” trade. It’s not necessarily that traders and investors are particularly excited about Trump’...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Instability and Trade War Influences
There were some jitters this week as Russia and Ukraine stepped up assaults ahead of what may become talks to end the conflict. Alongside concerns about a kinetic war is the uncertainty around the incoming Trump Administration’s aggressions in trade policy.It should be noted that geopolitical u...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Once again, placements surprised to the upside compared to pre-report analysts’ consensus expectations. The total cattle on feed inventory was 11.986 million head, which was slightly above last year’s 11.956 million head. Total feedlot inve...
WPI Quarterly Grain Balance Sheet Forecasts
The latest updates and model runs from WPI’s grain balance sheet and pricing forecasts show that corn and wheat are likely to see stronger-than-expected demand that should create upside potential for cash and futures markets. Conversely, soybeans are expected to see weaker demand (particularly...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 22 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 22 November 2024By Matt HerringtonThe major story behind dry bulk freight markets remains the same: slack demand causing additional weakness in rates. The downturn in rates is accelerating as markets head into the holiday season, which is usually a lull period for freig...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Fall on Export Data
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex finding their way into the red for various reasons. Wheat initially rallied on rising tensions and attacks between Rusia and Ukraine, with Ukraine accusing Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missil...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
The monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 100 percent of last year’s 11.9 million head, at a range of estimates between 99.5 percent and 101.3 percent of 1 November 2023. This would be 11.6 mil...
Oilseed Highlights: Continued Pressure from South America and Policy Uncertainties
The MarketDespite a decent USDA Export Sales report, the market continues to be weighed down by the large developing South American soybean crop. Soybean prices rose in the overnight market on short-covering but they resumed their decline on Thursday, falling below trendline support. March soyb...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volumes were muted on Wednesday and other than the KC wheat market and soyoil futures, none of the major ag markets made major technical moves. Ma...
Turkey is a Turkey
And we don’t mean Türkiye. Turkey can mean unsuccessful and the production and trade in the domesticated large bird called the turkey leaves much to be desired. It originated in North America and that is where it has mostly stayed. The U.S. produces about half the world’s turkey meat. U.S. and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 November 2024Russian Union of Grain producers and exporters announced that winter wheat area for 2025/26 may drop to 15.4 Mha which will be the smallest planted winter crops area since 2018/19. Particularly, wheat area may drop by 0.9 Mha to 16.3 Mha, and after wi...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior Russia or bearishness from favorable weather in South America. Based solely upon that statement, you can probably figure out which markets d...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
Farm Bill Deficiencies; Transatlantic Tensions; GMO Correction
Farm Bill DeficienciesU.S. Senate Democrats have finally laid down their marker in a bicameral negotiation over a farm bill renewal. In it, Democrats conceded to a House Republican initiative to double spending on export promotion programs. However, they did not accept the Republican position t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt’s strategic wheat reserves are at 4.6 months. This is a little lower than usual due to delays in wheat shipments from Russia.Iraq advises that is has sent 50 truckloads of aid to Syria, mainly wheat. The aid will be used to support...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock margins continue to be characterized by weakness in the packing sector and strength in producer profitability. Last week, both beef and pork packer margins fell due to weakness in meat prices and beef margins scored their third straight weekly loss and pork margins their second. The d...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 18 November)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Agriculture Committees in the 119th Congress
With the Republicans maintaining control of the House, Representative G.T. Thompson (R-PA) will retain the gavel as committee chairman, unless he is nominated for Secretary of Agriculture by President-elect Trump. Thompson’s name has been mentioned more frequently as of late as a potential nomi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina is progressing at a steady pace. Last week, the harvested area share increased by 5 percentage points, bringing the total to 17 percent of the sown area. The harvest begins in the north and gradually moves southward. In the northwest, the harvest is nea...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Ukraine War Developments, Fund Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with markets reacting to Friday’s CFTC data as well as news that will impact the Ukraine-Russia war. First, the CFTC data showed managed money traders engaged in a surprise, massive buying spree in corn last week, a move that sparked support in futur...
RFK, Jr. Equals Opportunity; Quarter Century of GMO’s
RFK, Jr. Equals OpportunityRobert F. Kennedy, Jr. wants to eliminate processed foods, artificial colorings, chemicals, and other broadly named boogeymen. He and his ilk are social media trolls that disparage the regulated and regulators alike, fabricating conspiracy theories about Big Food want...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the European Parliament voted on the EUDR regulation and officially delayed the full implementation of the ruling until December 2025.After a soggy start to autumn for most of continental Europe, particularly the western regions, the recent weather and two-week for...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into a near-100,000 contract bullish position. Over the period 5 through 12 November, funds bought over 96,000 contracts, which is the 11th large...
Market Commentary: Today was Green but Headwinds for the Week
Corn, soymeal, live cattle and lean hogs all traded lower during the morning start but by the end of the day, only lean hogs ended lower. There were modest volumes being traded on Friday for most contracts, except feeder cattle where it was nearly double the five-day average.December soymeal hi...
Cow-Calf Margins Steady in November, Herd Expansion Still Likely
Despite recent decreases in feeder cattle futures and rising feedstuff costs, estimated cow-calf producer margins are largely unchanged from WPI’s October estimate. The stable and positive financial environment means that producers are still facing strong financial incentives to expand the U.S...
McSustainability Through Feed Efficiency
McDonalds has entered the sustainability space by partnering with Syngenta and paying cattle producers to use Syngenta’s Enogen Trait corn to improve feed efficiency. Enogen corn contains an enzyme, alpha amylase. This enzyme has been added during the ethanol production process to induce starch...
Livestock Roundup: Turkey Production Adjusted Down
Turkey production in August totaled 434.7 million pounds, slightly above July production but down 11 percent year-over-year. August slaughter was down 15 percent year-over-year, but heavier weights in August (32.25 pounds) offset the reduced slaughter. Based on the August production data, estim...
Market Commentary: Biofuel and Trade Policy Worries Pressure CBOT along with Dollar Strength
The CBOT saw another day of pronounced weakness with expectations for larger global soybean and wheat production and stocks in 2025 weighing on values. Product demand in the soy complex has also been a huge negative factor recently with uncertainty over U.S. biofuels policy causing a sharp redu...
Oilseed Highlights: Multi-Bearish Factors
The MarketThe January soybean contract has been sliding all week and despite support at the 20-day moving average of $10.01/ST, it closed today below $10/bushel for the first time this month. The reasons are many including: a rising dollar value, 2) large impending South American production, 3)...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
EU Studies Trading Houses
As part of its witch hunt for unfair market practices, the EU Parliament’s AGRI Committee requested a study of the major agricultural commodity trading companies and their impacts. The study may inform populists in the U.S. that also see consolidated industries as inherently harmful, but...
USA Gone Nuts
While oilseeds receive much of the attention, tree nuts, which are technically a seed and containing oil, have gone even more gangbusters for U.S. producers in recent years. Almonds have received much of the focus as the U.S. produces nearly 80 percent of the crop and a comparable share of the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Cuban Pipedream
Some in the U.S. agriculture community have spent years trying to improve sales to Cuba, which have increased though from a very small base. Now there is even less reason to think they’ll succeed. Their pipedream has been a hungry population of around 11 million people just 60 miles off the Ame...
Trump’s Tariff Plan; Whither Europe; RTO Beats WFH
Trump’s Tariff PlanFew things attract more speculation than how President-Elect Donald Trump will model his plan to increase tariffs on imports. Some economists have taken his most exaggerated claims and predict they will cause slower economic growth and higher inflation. At least one advisor s...
Political Landscape Taking Shape
After the 2024 elections, the Republicans look to have taken control of Congress, along with a Trump victory, providing a Republican triple sweep. The Senate GOP majority is 53 to 47; and the House GOP majority is still TBD. However, as of today, the Republicans have secured 215 seats, and Demo...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
Livestock Industry Margins
WPI is excited to present the latest edition of our newest data-driven publication Ag Perspectives Quant: U.S. Livestock Industry Profit Margins. This report offers a comprehensive look at the profitability of the U.S. beef and pork sectors, from cow-calf and farrow-to-finish producers up the v...
Market Commentary: CBOT Slips as Demand Worries Overtake Supply-Side Surprises
The November WASDE offered mixed influences for the major ag markets with USDA making surprise cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean crops and ending stocks, which rallied markets on Friday. The report also, however, cast doubts on the demand-side outlook for both crops and wheat, and that is what...
Deep Bench to Fight RFK; China Market Risk; Thankless Job
Deep Bench to Fight RFKBeing the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture is usually a pretty good job. It involves doling out billions of dollars, the constituency is dominated by courteous country people, and controversies tend to be minor. The person serving the longest in any Cabinet position was Jame...
Rice as a Stable Crop
Last year, India restricted non-Basmati rice exports believing there would be a weather-related short supply. Production was ample and now the country faces record high inventories that will likely be dumped on the world market. The OECD calculates that Indian farmers are implicitly taxed $120...
Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation
As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely to include a role for electric vehicles, and a renewable fuels policy that will focus on reducing c...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Market Commentary: Somewhat Tumultuous WASDE
The November WASDE report usually involves some tweaking of the numbers by USDA, and that is all it mostly was today, but with some quirky impacts. First, there were a few surprises but not dramatic ones and yet the report spurred larger to outsized volume in trading across the grain and oilsee...
Who Might Be the Next Ag Secretary?
As most Presidents-elect do, former President and President-elect Donald Trump has named his new White House Chief of Staff as his first appointment. It is Susi S. Wiles. Wiles was the co-manager of Trump’s 2024 campaign, and also was a key strategist focused on Florida in his 2016 and 2020 cam...
WPI 2025 Hog and Pork Outlook
U.S. hog producers saw a mixed year in 2024 with early-year prices bringing poor profitability while the dramatic hog rally since the summer has lifted financial fortunes significantly. A major component of those rising prices was the unexpected surge in pork demand, which pushed the cutout to...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Rally on Export Numbers; Cattle Gain on Macro Strength
The CBOT was mixed on Thursday following the news of Donald Trump’s election to President of the United States with markets, particularly corn and cattle futures, seeing continued support from “risk on” trade. It’s not necessarily that traders and investors are particularly excited about Trump’...