Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.4325/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4825/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.7/short ton, down $6.1...
Market Commentary: Weaker Spread Trade Hints at Slack Demand, Triggers Fund Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybeans were under heavy selling pressure as weaker (or at least as-expected) export demand runs into an accelerating harvest pace with more grain available in the spot market. Corn and soybean harvest progress remains below average across the U.S., espec...
Newcastle Disease Threatens Brazilian Poultry Exports, but Impact May Be Limited
Key Takeaways: Brazil confirmed a Newcastle disease outbreak at a commercial turkey farm in Santa Catarina on 18 October, raising concerns about potential disruptions to poultry exports despite the outbreak being confined to a single facility thus far. Mexico and Malaysia have imposed nationwi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.5525/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Perceptions of Production Change as Harvest Advances
What You Need to Know Today: Harvest pressure in the U.S. sent corn and soybeans lower as supplies increased and there were signs USDA’s upward revisions to yields in the October WASDE could be close to right. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend, with Ukrai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.6125/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Another Big Soybean Purchase from China This Week
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans continued to accelerate, with USDA reporting another 558 KMT sold to China and 236 KMT to unknown destinations. Combined with sales announced Wednesday and Thursday, the latest purchases bring the three-day total to approximately...
First Look at Realized 2026 Cow-Calf Profits
Key Takeaways: With the fall calf run now upon us, producers are finally getting a glimpse of what their realized profits will be for 2026. Some producers may have already obtained a strong estimate of 2026 revenues, especially if calves were forward sold in, for example, the mid-summer...
The Dynamics of the HPAI Vaccine Plan
As fall begins, wild migratory birds are starting their seasonal migration. That has the industry and government officials worried about the potential spread, again, of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Some members of Congress have called for the United States to be prepared for a pote...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fourth straight week, selling a net 119,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 13.1 percent. Corn accounted for 70 percent of the weekly selling, while funds also...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.78/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.63/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.8/short ton, down $4.7...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Slide Despite Renewed Chinese Buying as Crush Disappoints
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
Livestock Round Up
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
The Tale of Two Dairies under FMMO
Key Takeaways: Texas illustrates the assumptions underlying the 2025 FMMO reform; Idaho exposes their limitations. The Southwest order blend (roughly 27 percent Class I, 32 percent Class III and 31 percent Class IV) exposes Texas producers to every lever USDA adjusted, with a near-neutral proj...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7325/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $364.5/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Market Commentary: A Strong Dollar & A Short Fuse
Inflation is back in the driver’s seat, and agriculture is getting pulled in two directions. A stronger dollar is pressuring grains despite fresh Chinese buying, while renewed Middle East attacks lift crude oil. Higher energy prices can support commodities, but they also raise expenses an...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Ideas Abound
What You Need to Know Today: China’s state-run COFCO, in statements on Tuesday, implied that U.S. corn exports were currently uneconomical but hinted that the Middle Kingdom would import 3.5 MMT of the feed grain this year, with 1 MMT likely sourced from the U.S. Another drone attack has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.6925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $363.2/short ton, down $5...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins declined to $190/head last week, down $32 from the prior week as the Choice cutout weakened while fed cattle prices remained steady. The cutout fell $2.56/cwt to $373/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $220/cwt, narrowing packer spreads after several weeks of improvement...
Market Commentary: CBOT Break Produces Flurry of Tenders; Markets Consolidate Amid Trader Debate
What You Need to Know Today: USDA reports are delayed until Tuesday due to the federal holiday on Monday. Over the weekend, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Russia warmly welcomed and confirmed this ceasefire by conducting more strikes against Ukraine. Specific...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8775/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.7/short ton, up $3.1 f...
State of USMCA Talks: Progress with Mexico, Canada Stalled
On Saturday, 10 October, at a campaign rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, President Trump said that the U.S. and Mexico would come to terms on a new trade deal, and he said Canada does not need to be part of the deal. Trump called the coming agreement with Mexico “great” but gave no d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7975/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.71/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.92/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $8 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Yield Above Expectations Shakes Outlook, Trump Announces Russian Diesel Deal
What You Need to Know Today: Markets got a surprise with a corn yield of 181.2 bushels/acre in the October WASDE, above the average estimate of 177.6 bushels/acre and up from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bushels/acre. Although stronger demand is expected to absorb some of the addit...
WASDE Livestock and Meat Price Forecasts
The USDA has lowered its 2026 red meat production forecasts slightly while forecasting a slight increase in broiler production. Beef is now projected at 24.802 billion pounds, 75 million pounds less than in September. Cow slaughter is expected to be up; however, this will be offset by lower ste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the third straight week, selling a net 43,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 911,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, all three legs of the soy crush...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.6/short ton, down $8...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Ahead of WASDE; Pork Cutout Hits Multi-Year Low
What You Need to Know Today: Attention is turning toward Friday's USDA WASDE report, with traders looking for updated corn and soybean production estimates and revisions to domestic and global supply-and-demand balances. The report could help establish a clearer direction for grain price...
Beef and Cattle Prices: Expect Another Bullish Year in 2027
Key Takeaways: U.S. beef production is forecast to fall 10.5 percent in 2026 and remain unchanged in 2027, despite a mild recovery in fed cattle slaughter. Record beef imports will help offset shrinking domestic production, with imports forecast to increase 14.0 percent in 2026 and anoth...
Livestock Round Up: Beef Lean Trim Imports Fail to Bring Consumer Relief
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e. lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the ma...
Tariffs and the American Sheep, Goat, and Wool Industries
Key Takeaways: Lamb and goat tariffs protect market share, not prices. The flock is too small to respond quickly, and the burden depends on origin: 12.5 percent on Australia and New Zealand, reportedly 37.5 percent plus the base rate on China. Wool is most exposed via the export side. The U.S...
Market Commentary: Yesterday’s Momentum, Today’s Test
Yesterday’s momentum is facing a tougher test today. Stocks and most grain markets have pulled back, while higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar are making buyers work harder to defend the gains. Crude oil has turned lower, easing some immediate energy pressure, but the Fed minutes l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.865/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.8/short ton, up $11 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Crop Ratings Fall and Wheat Planting Stalls
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. corn condition ratings took a surprise turn for the worse in Monday’s report, with 54 percent rated good/excellent (down 3 percent). Dry weather in the U.S. Wheat Belt is stalling planting and causing concerns for the 2027 crop, in turn boosting futures...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.03/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, up $7.7 from ye...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $222/head last week, up $26 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices slipped lower. The cutout rose to $376/cwt while fed cattle fell to $220/cwt, strengthening packer returns. Margins remain exceptionally strong compared with...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.4325/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4825/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.7/short ton, down $6.1...
Market Commentary: Weaker Spread Trade Hints at Slack Demand, Triggers Fund Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybeans were under heavy selling pressure as weaker (or at least as-expected) export demand runs into an accelerating harvest pace with more grain available in the spot market. Corn and soybean harvest progress remains below average across the U.S., espec...
Newcastle Disease Threatens Brazilian Poultry Exports, but Impact May Be Limited
Key Takeaways: Brazil confirmed a Newcastle disease outbreak at a commercial turkey farm in Santa Catarina on 18 October, raising concerns about potential disruptions to poultry exports despite the outbreak being confined to a single facility thus far. Mexico and Malaysia have imposed nationwi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.5525/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Perceptions of Production Change as Harvest Advances
What You Need to Know Today: Harvest pressure in the U.S. sent corn and soybeans lower as supplies increased and there were signs USDA’s upward revisions to yields in the October WASDE could be close to right. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend, with Ukrai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.6125/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Another Big Soybean Purchase from China This Week
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans continued to accelerate, with USDA reporting another 558 KMT sold to China and 236 KMT to unknown destinations. Combined with sales announced Wednesday and Thursday, the latest purchases bring the three-day total to approximately...
First Look at Realized 2026 Cow-Calf Profits
Key Takeaways: With the fall calf run now upon us, producers are finally getting a glimpse of what their realized profits will be for 2026. Some producers may have already obtained a strong estimate of 2026 revenues, especially if calves were forward sold in, for example, the mid-summer...
The Dynamics of the HPAI Vaccine Plan
As fall begins, wild migratory birds are starting their seasonal migration. That has the industry and government officials worried about the potential spread, again, of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Some members of Congress have called for the United States to be prepared for a pote...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fourth straight week, selling a net 119,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 13.1 percent. Corn accounted for 70 percent of the weekly selling, while funds also...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.78/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.63/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.8/short ton, down $4.7...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Slide Despite Renewed Chinese Buying as Crush Disappoints
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
Livestock Round Up
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
The Tale of Two Dairies under FMMO
Key Takeaways: Texas illustrates the assumptions underlying the 2025 FMMO reform; Idaho exposes their limitations. The Southwest order blend (roughly 27 percent Class I, 32 percent Class III and 31 percent Class IV) exposes Texas producers to every lever USDA adjusted, with a near-neutral proj...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7325/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $364.5/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Market Commentary: A Strong Dollar & A Short Fuse
Inflation is back in the driver’s seat, and agriculture is getting pulled in two directions. A stronger dollar is pressuring grains despite fresh Chinese buying, while renewed Middle East attacks lift crude oil. Higher energy prices can support commodities, but they also raise expenses an...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Ideas Abound
What You Need to Know Today: China’s state-run COFCO, in statements on Tuesday, implied that U.S. corn exports were currently uneconomical but hinted that the Middle Kingdom would import 3.5 MMT of the feed grain this year, with 1 MMT likely sourced from the U.S. Another drone attack has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.6925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $363.2/short ton, down $5...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins declined to $190/head last week, down $32 from the prior week as the Choice cutout weakened while fed cattle prices remained steady. The cutout fell $2.56/cwt to $373/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $220/cwt, narrowing packer spreads after several weeks of improvement...
Market Commentary: CBOT Break Produces Flurry of Tenders; Markets Consolidate Amid Trader Debate
What You Need to Know Today: USDA reports are delayed until Tuesday due to the federal holiday on Monday. Over the weekend, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Russia warmly welcomed and confirmed this ceasefire by conducting more strikes against Ukraine. Specific...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8775/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.7/short ton, up $3.1 f...
State of USMCA Talks: Progress with Mexico, Canada Stalled
On Saturday, 10 October, at a campaign rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, President Trump said that the U.S. and Mexico would come to terms on a new trade deal, and he said Canada does not need to be part of the deal. Trump called the coming agreement with Mexico “great” but gave no d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7975/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.71/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.92/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $8 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Yield Above Expectations Shakes Outlook, Trump Announces Russian Diesel Deal
What You Need to Know Today: Markets got a surprise with a corn yield of 181.2 bushels/acre in the October WASDE, above the average estimate of 177.6 bushels/acre and up from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bushels/acre. Although stronger demand is expected to absorb some of the addit...
WASDE Livestock and Meat Price Forecasts
The USDA has lowered its 2026 red meat production forecasts slightly while forecasting a slight increase in broiler production. Beef is now projected at 24.802 billion pounds, 75 million pounds less than in September. Cow slaughter is expected to be up; however, this will be offset by lower ste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the third straight week, selling a net 43,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 911,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, all three legs of the soy crush...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.6/short ton, down $8...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Ahead of WASDE; Pork Cutout Hits Multi-Year Low
What You Need to Know Today: Attention is turning toward Friday's USDA WASDE report, with traders looking for updated corn and soybean production estimates and revisions to domestic and global supply-and-demand balances. The report could help establish a clearer direction for grain price...
Beef and Cattle Prices: Expect Another Bullish Year in 2027
Key Takeaways: U.S. beef production is forecast to fall 10.5 percent in 2026 and remain unchanged in 2027, despite a mild recovery in fed cattle slaughter. Record beef imports will help offset shrinking domestic production, with imports forecast to increase 14.0 percent in 2026 and anoth...
Livestock Round Up: Beef Lean Trim Imports Fail to Bring Consumer Relief
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e. lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the ma...
Tariffs and the American Sheep, Goat, and Wool Industries
Key Takeaways: Lamb and goat tariffs protect market share, not prices. The flock is too small to respond quickly, and the burden depends on origin: 12.5 percent on Australia and New Zealand, reportedly 37.5 percent plus the base rate on China. Wool is most exposed via the export side. The U.S...
Market Commentary: Yesterday’s Momentum, Today’s Test
Yesterday’s momentum is facing a tougher test today. Stocks and most grain markets have pulled back, while higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar are making buyers work harder to defend the gains. Crude oil has turned lower, easing some immediate energy pressure, but the Fed minutes l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.865/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.8/short ton, up $11 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Crop Ratings Fall and Wheat Planting Stalls
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. corn condition ratings took a surprise turn for the worse in Monday’s report, with 54 percent rated good/excellent (down 3 percent). Dry weather in the U.S. Wheat Belt is stalling planting and causing concerns for the 2027 crop, in turn boosting futures...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.03/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, up $7.7 from ye...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $222/head last week, up $26 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices slipped lower. The cutout rose to $376/cwt while fed cattle fell to $220/cwt, strengthening packer returns. Margins remain exceptionally strong compared with...