Recent Livestock Analysis
Exceeding Expectations, Perhaps on a Thread
Commodity markets opened mostly in the red but managed a turnaround late in the session for corn, beans and wheat. There was not much fundamentally driving the market. Export sales were solid but there have been no new flash sales reports for several days. By contrast, equity markets opened mix...
U.S. and Canadian Livestock Inventories
Yesterday, NASS and Statistics Canada released the 1 July cattle inventory in the two countries. Combined, the inventory was 106.1 million head, which was down to 99 percent of 2023 (the USDA suspended the July inventory report in 2024 due to budget constraints) and down to 92.4 percent of 2020...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Grains while Bulls Dominate Livestock, but will the Trends Hold?
Trade in ag futures was a tale of two cities, with grains sinking into the red while the livestock markets rallied to fresh highs. Grains and oilseeds saw pressure from lackluster technical conditions and, for corn and wheat, expectations of ample domestic and global supplies. Soybeans saw weak...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.2/short ton, down $5.1...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite some dryness and uneven weather over the past few weeks, conditions ratings were generally steady, and – surprisingly – in t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3175/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $293.3/short ton, up $2.4 fro...
New World Screwworm Human Case
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the third straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits on fresh record highs in the beef market. Margins are now around -$80/head, still very low by post-2010 standards but a sharp improvement from recent losses. The broad strength across beef markets &m...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT as Markets Eye Yields, First Notice Day
Friday’s market fireworks faded a bit on Monday as traders took the opportunity to rest and reassess fundamentals. There were no particularly big news items over the weekend to drive a big swing in markets, which meant that a lull was almost bound to follow last week’s large moves i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.9/short ton, down $0...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space for the second straight week. The move came amid short covering in the soy complex and corn, where technical momentum turned higher. Funds are now essentially neutral acr...
Cattle on Feed on August 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed totaled 10.9 million head on August 1, 2025 and was 2 percent below August 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.60 million head, 6 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.75 million head, 6 percent below 2024. Oth...
Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late summer loss of moisture combined with a litany of potentially damaging disease outbreaks. The number of foliar diseases that have been s...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 10.9 million head, 98 percent of last year. Total placements were down 6 percent but were above the average pre-report estimate. Marketings were down 6 percent, in...
Market Commentary: Market Wiggles on Pro Farmer, Weather and Demand
Yesterday’s grain and oilseed rally extended, for the most part, today. While wheat led the complex upward yesterday, today’s higher volume trading corn and the soy complex gave the thrust in today’s session. Soymeal and the livestock complex took a breather today. The incomin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $3 from ye...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 97.4 and 98.6 percent of 1 August 2024. Those estimates imply an on-feed i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.04/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and development were highly favorable. That, combined with high corn yield and soybean pod count estimates from various crop tours sent the mark...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the second straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits thanks to record highs in the beef market. Margins remain deeply negative, however, which will be a concern for cattle markets going forward. One encouraging factor is the broad-based strength acros...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action was mixed as funds covered corn shorts but expanded bearish positions in wheat and, to a lesser extent, the soy complex. Fresh news was light...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.065/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.8/short ton, down $...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have featured few meaningful changes in the net ag position — the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three class...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...
Market Commentary: Another Day in a Sea of Red
After a three-day rally, the soybean complex drifted lower, wheat continued its bearish decline, and corn miraculously escaped another day of damage. The market now awaits crop tour results, which at their onset appear to be confirming USDA’s view of big yields. Barring a miraculous...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE Shows Protein Production Mostly Down
Red meat and poultry production total estimates were down for August in the latest WASDE report. Beef production for the year was estimated at 25.926 billion pounds, which was 262 million pounds less than July on lower slaughter and relatively lighter dressed carcass weights. Steer prices were...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain as Dollar Falls; Soybeans Extend Rally on Acreage and Heat
The CBOT on Wednesday saw grains make a slight recovery and correction from Tuesday’s WASDE-induced selloff while the soybean market extended the bullish trade. Both corn and wheat pushed slightly higher for the day with concerns about heat in the Corn Belt supporting corn trade while whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.9725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4425/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.3/short ton, up $5.4 fr...
Market Commentary: King Corn Flexes Dominance; Soybeans Rise on Acreage Data; Cattle Surge
The August WASDE is almost always a market-moving event for at least one commodity, and Tuesday’s report was no different. Tuesday’s trade started off with some trepidation after China increased the import duty on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8 percent, which caused canola futures to cra...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.2/short ton, up $5 from y...
Market Commentary: Momentum is Stalled Pending WASDE
After yesterday’s baseless bounce, today’s trading involved some retracement on a lack of fresh inputs. There was yet another flash corn export sale this morning, but higher volume sent corn futures lower. It was an unforgiving day, and the market is in a holding pattern until USDA&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.055/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $0 fr...
Market Commentary: A Bounce but Fundamentals Unchanged
Unlike in previous days, commodity futures opened higher today and sustained upward momentum. There was some short covering and some correction from over-sold but it is unlikely the market has found a seasonal bottom. There is good demand, but there is also the potential for record crops. Next...
Livestock Round Up: Trade Update
The beef sector experienced a week of record-breaking prices, and depressed packer margins for the week ending 1 August. Live cattle were a record $244.41 per hundredweight (cwt) for Choice steers, a $48 jump compared to the same week last year, while the cutout dropped $5.22 per pound and by m...
Exceeding Expectations, Perhaps on a Thread
Commodity markets opened mostly in the red but managed a turnaround late in the session for corn, beans and wheat. There was not much fundamentally driving the market. Export sales were solid but there have been no new flash sales reports for several days. By contrast, equity markets opened mix...
U.S. and Canadian Livestock Inventories
Yesterday, NASS and Statistics Canada released the 1 July cattle inventory in the two countries. Combined, the inventory was 106.1 million head, which was down to 99 percent of 2023 (the USDA suspended the July inventory report in 2024 due to budget constraints) and down to 92.4 percent of 2020...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Grains while Bulls Dominate Livestock, but will the Trends Hold?
Trade in ag futures was a tale of two cities, with grains sinking into the red while the livestock markets rallied to fresh highs. Grains and oilseeds saw pressure from lackluster technical conditions and, for corn and wheat, expectations of ample domestic and global supplies. Soybeans saw weak...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.2/short ton, down $5.1...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite some dryness and uneven weather over the past few weeks, conditions ratings were generally steady, and – surprisingly – in t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3175/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $293.3/short ton, up $2.4 fro...
New World Screwworm Human Case
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the third straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits on fresh record highs in the beef market. Margins are now around -$80/head, still very low by post-2010 standards but a sharp improvement from recent losses. The broad strength across beef markets &m...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT as Markets Eye Yields, First Notice Day
Friday’s market fireworks faded a bit on Monday as traders took the opportunity to rest and reassess fundamentals. There were no particularly big news items over the weekend to drive a big swing in markets, which meant that a lull was almost bound to follow last week’s large moves i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.9/short ton, down $0...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space for the second straight week. The move came amid short covering in the soy complex and corn, where technical momentum turned higher. Funds are now essentially neutral acr...
Cattle on Feed on August 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed totaled 10.9 million head on August 1, 2025 and was 2 percent below August 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.60 million head, 6 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.75 million head, 6 percent below 2024. Oth...
Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late summer loss of moisture combined with a litany of potentially damaging disease outbreaks. The number of foliar diseases that have been s...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 10.9 million head, 98 percent of last year. Total placements were down 6 percent but were above the average pre-report estimate. Marketings were down 6 percent, in...
Market Commentary: Market Wiggles on Pro Farmer, Weather and Demand
Yesterday’s grain and oilseed rally extended, for the most part, today. While wheat led the complex upward yesterday, today’s higher volume trading corn and the soy complex gave the thrust in today’s session. Soymeal and the livestock complex took a breather today. The incomin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $3 from ye...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 97.4 and 98.6 percent of 1 August 2024. Those estimates imply an on-feed i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.04/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and development were highly favorable. That, combined with high corn yield and soybean pod count estimates from various crop tours sent the mark...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the second straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits thanks to record highs in the beef market. Margins remain deeply negative, however, which will be a concern for cattle markets going forward. One encouraging factor is the broad-based strength acros...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action was mixed as funds covered corn shorts but expanded bearish positions in wheat and, to a lesser extent, the soy complex. Fresh news was light...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.065/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.8/short ton, down $...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have featured few meaningful changes in the net ag position — the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three class...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...
Market Commentary: Another Day in a Sea of Red
After a three-day rally, the soybean complex drifted lower, wheat continued its bearish decline, and corn miraculously escaped another day of damage. The market now awaits crop tour results, which at their onset appear to be confirming USDA’s view of big yields. Barring a miraculous...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE Shows Protein Production Mostly Down
Red meat and poultry production total estimates were down for August in the latest WASDE report. Beef production for the year was estimated at 25.926 billion pounds, which was 262 million pounds less than July on lower slaughter and relatively lighter dressed carcass weights. Steer prices were...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain as Dollar Falls; Soybeans Extend Rally on Acreage and Heat
The CBOT on Wednesday saw grains make a slight recovery and correction from Tuesday’s WASDE-induced selloff while the soybean market extended the bullish trade. Both corn and wheat pushed slightly higher for the day with concerns about heat in the Corn Belt supporting corn trade while whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.9725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4425/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.3/short ton, up $5.4 fr...
Market Commentary: King Corn Flexes Dominance; Soybeans Rise on Acreage Data; Cattle Surge
The August WASDE is almost always a market-moving event for at least one commodity, and Tuesday’s report was no different. Tuesday’s trade started off with some trepidation after China increased the import duty on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8 percent, which caused canola futures to cra...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.2/short ton, up $5 from y...
Market Commentary: Momentum is Stalled Pending WASDE
After yesterday’s baseless bounce, today’s trading involved some retracement on a lack of fresh inputs. There was yet another flash corn export sale this morning, but higher volume sent corn futures lower. It was an unforgiving day, and the market is in a holding pattern until USDA&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.055/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $0 fr...
Market Commentary: A Bounce but Fundamentals Unchanged
Unlike in previous days, commodity futures opened higher today and sustained upward momentum. There was some short covering and some correction from over-sold but it is unlikely the market has found a seasonal bottom. There is good demand, but there is also the potential for record crops. Next...
Livestock Round Up: Trade Update
The beef sector experienced a week of record-breaking prices, and depressed packer margins for the week ending 1 August. Live cattle were a record $244.41 per hundredweight (cwt) for Choice steers, a $48 jump compared to the same week last year, while the cutout dropped $5.22 per pound and by m...