Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, down $0.1 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.4/short ton, up $2.7 from...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and soyoil the lonely losers for the day. HRS continued to bounce on the lower crop rating early this week. In contrast to SRW and HRW, HRS is up...
Livestock Roundup: Chicken Weights Suggest Sandwich War Return
USDA updated its forecast for broiler production in 2025 and released its initial estimate for 2026. The 2025 estimate was revised lower by 260 million pounds and is now expected to be up just 1.1 percent from the previous year. At the beginning of the year, projections were for a 1.4 percent i...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially appeared supportive for the major markets with planting slowing for corn and soybeans and corn and spring wheat conditions coming in below exp...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, up $0.1 from yest...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s wheat crop is expected to be down by 75 percent this year due to severe drought conditions. Syria will need to find a source for about 2.7 MMT of wheat in order to supply the population. Syria is hoping that the lift...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent from a year ago on May 1, 2025. Cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head and totaled 11.4 million. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.61 million head, 3 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week, Friday brought lower prices except for soyoil, HRS, and Feeder Cattle. It was the fourth session higher this week for Minneapolis wheat. P...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory of feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.4 million head, 98 percent of last year. This weekend commences the summer grilling season. Placements were 1.6 million head, 97 percent of last year, compare...
Cow-Calf Profitability Improves, Indicates Herd Rebuilding
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ financial outlook continues to improve with the recent gains in feeder cattle prices and overall weakness in feed costs so far in 2025. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis remain below those of 2014 and 2015, but recent gains in expected profits sugg...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see lower volume and some risk-off exits given the three-day break from trading. BBB Overnight trading and today’s trading session i...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.63/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.675/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $4.4 from...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.5 percent of last year with the range of estimates between an incredibly tight 98.3 percent and 98.8 percent of 1 May 2024. &nbs...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $292.6/short ton, up $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly concerned about the Black Sea weather, and, to a lesser extent, the EU and U.S. forecasts as well. Too, wheat saw more action as it is where...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins improved for the first time in several weeks last week with gains in beef and pork prices offsetting gains in market animal values. Beef packer margins improved by $17/head last week but remain at their second-lowest levels in the past 15 years due to high fed cattle costs...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming split on their views for the grains and oilseeds complexes going forward. Funds were bearish grains as they sold a combined 120,000 contracts in corn and all three classes of wheat futures while buying 23,000 contracts ac...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $4.5 f...
Market Commentary: Corrections from Oversold/Overbought, Big Crops, Facts and Rumors
There was again a lot to unpack in today’s trade action, and not all of it was pretty. Big Crops: There is no getting around the fact that favorable weather for the most part is leading to big crops. Conab raised its soybean estimate to 169 MMT, now just 1 MMT below USDA. The Wheat Qualit...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Shortage Still Affecting Prices
Cattle supply still matters. USDA has announced the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports from Mexico due to recent detections of New World Screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico. Economic fundamentals, such as tight cattle supplies, still play a role in supporting prices in the outly...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.455/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2475/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $1.4 fro...
Market Commentary: Tax Credit Hopes Bouy Soyoil; Wheat Gains on Weather; Cattle Turn Bearish
Weather and Congressional tax policy were at the forefront of futures traders’ minds on Wednesday and these two factors drove much of the day’s price action. The weather outlooks – favorable for the Corn Belt and dry for the Southern Plains, Europe, and Black Sea – creat...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.3/short ton, down $4.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
WASDE Livestock
The May WASDE included this disclaimer: Effective May 11, 2025, the USDA announced the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports from Mexico due to recent detections of New World Screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico. Forecasts in this report reflect this suspension and, in the abs...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins worsened again last week as profits for both beef and pork packers declined. Beef packer margins were sharply lower and hit another record low at -$253/head thanks to record highs in fed cattle prices that outpaced gains in the beef markets. Pork packer margins turned negati...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, down $0.1 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.4/short ton, up $2.7 from...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and soyoil the lonely losers for the day. HRS continued to bounce on the lower crop rating early this week. In contrast to SRW and HRW, HRS is up...
Livestock Roundup: Chicken Weights Suggest Sandwich War Return
USDA updated its forecast for broiler production in 2025 and released its initial estimate for 2026. The 2025 estimate was revised lower by 260 million pounds and is now expected to be up just 1.1 percent from the previous year. At the beginning of the year, projections were for a 1.4 percent i...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially appeared supportive for the major markets with planting slowing for corn and soybeans and corn and spring wheat conditions coming in below exp...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, up $0.1 from yest...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s wheat crop is expected to be down by 75 percent this year due to severe drought conditions. Syria will need to find a source for about 2.7 MMT of wheat in order to supply the population. Syria is hoping that the lift...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent from a year ago on May 1, 2025. Cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head and totaled 11.4 million. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.61 million head, 3 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week, Friday brought lower prices except for soyoil, HRS, and Feeder Cattle. It was the fourth session higher this week for Minneapolis wheat. P...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory of feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.4 million head, 98 percent of last year. This weekend commences the summer grilling season. Placements were 1.6 million head, 97 percent of last year, compare...
Cow-Calf Profitability Improves, Indicates Herd Rebuilding
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ financial outlook continues to improve with the recent gains in feeder cattle prices and overall weakness in feed costs so far in 2025. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis remain below those of 2014 and 2015, but recent gains in expected profits sugg...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see lower volume and some risk-off exits given the three-day break from trading. BBB Overnight trading and today’s trading session i...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.63/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.675/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $4.4 from...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.5 percent of last year with the range of estimates between an incredibly tight 98.3 percent and 98.8 percent of 1 May 2024. &nbs...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $292.6/short ton, up $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly concerned about the Black Sea weather, and, to a lesser extent, the EU and U.S. forecasts as well. Too, wheat saw more action as it is where...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins improved for the first time in several weeks last week with gains in beef and pork prices offsetting gains in market animal values. Beef packer margins improved by $17/head last week but remain at their second-lowest levels in the past 15 years due to high fed cattle costs...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming split on their views for the grains and oilseeds complexes going forward. Funds were bearish grains as they sold a combined 120,000 contracts in corn and all three classes of wheat futures while buying 23,000 contracts ac...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $4.5 f...
Market Commentary: Corrections from Oversold/Overbought, Big Crops, Facts and Rumors
There was again a lot to unpack in today’s trade action, and not all of it was pretty. Big Crops: There is no getting around the fact that favorable weather for the most part is leading to big crops. Conab raised its soybean estimate to 169 MMT, now just 1 MMT below USDA. The Wheat Qualit...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Shortage Still Affecting Prices
Cattle supply still matters. USDA has announced the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports from Mexico due to recent detections of New World Screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico. Economic fundamentals, such as tight cattle supplies, still play a role in supporting prices in the outly...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.455/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2475/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $1.4 fro...
Market Commentary: Tax Credit Hopes Bouy Soyoil; Wheat Gains on Weather; Cattle Turn Bearish
Weather and Congressional tax policy were at the forefront of futures traders’ minds on Wednesday and these two factors drove much of the day’s price action. The weather outlooks – favorable for the Corn Belt and dry for the Southern Plains, Europe, and Black Sea – creat...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.3/short ton, down $4.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
WASDE Livestock
The May WASDE included this disclaimer: Effective May 11, 2025, the USDA announced the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports from Mexico due to recent detections of New World Screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico. Forecasts in this report reflect this suspension and, in the abs...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins worsened again last week as profits for both beef and pork packers declined. Beef packer margins were sharply lower and hit another record low at -$253/head thanks to record highs in fed cattle prices that outpaced gains in the beef markets. Pork packer margins turned negati...