Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There were slight gains for soymeal, HRW and hogs, with the rest of the complex showing red. There was good volume for a Friday in corn, soybeans,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.8...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been less overall price significant in corn, it was the seventh session higher in the past eight. Soybeans have closed higher in six of the past sev...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4475/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, up $2.3 from yeste...
What Are Funds Doing Now? Forecasting the Missing CFTC Data
One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report, which shows how funds and commercials are positioned in the markets. The data is highly useful for myriad applications, and the current lack...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $3.1 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13–17 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish undertone, despite zero export duties and firm global demand. Reduced competition among buyers—due to fewer active exporters and limited multinational participation—has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3075/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $1.9...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on markets. The API sent a letter to congress saying it reversed its earlier support for year-round sales of E15 fuel and said the government...
Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further notice. However, there is a temporary suspension of the weekly export sales and monthly supply and demand reports. Nonetheless, USDA is repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
16 October was World Bread Day, just in case you missed it. The European Commodity Exchange held in Berlin Germany last week was well attended with over 4,000 people registered. There were many attendees from Turkey, Egypt, and across North Africa, fewer from Africa and the Middle East but stil...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4 from ye...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess moisture continues to hinder fieldwork in central and western Buenos Aires provinces. As a result, early planting will likely fall short of in...
European Market Analysis
Regional News German and central European cattle values are starting to decline after their recent, multi-year rally. Slaughter cow values declined this week as producers started to cull herds following seasonal patterns. Slaughter steers and heifer prices, however, were stable as supplie...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of course, it is more complex than that but those are authoritative sources. The corn market did not wait for such signals, instead rallying...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.195/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281/short ton, up $4.1 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, up $1 from y...
Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?
CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massive levels. The soybean crop was forecast at a record 177.6 MMT, up sharply from the prior year and easily the largest on record due to expand...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.9/short ton, up $1.6 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 6–10 October 2025 The Russian grains market showed mixed dynamics. While bearish sentiment persisted in the Asian regions and the Volga Valley, prices in European Russia stabilized and even recovered for staple grains. The sharp downward trend observed in September...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.3/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and France have extended their cooperation program in agricultural and rural development for Tunisia. The program is being supported by €76 million from the Agricultural Investment and Modernization Program funded by...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9675/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.1/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Although nearly 97 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated from normal to excellent, excessive rainfall in some areas is becoming a concern. Certain fields have been inaccessible for months, preventing necessary fieldwork. Fungal diseases are spreading, but farmers are still inve...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to dominate global agricultural export policy headlines after Moscow introduced a floating “damper” mechanism for export duties. The “damper” lowered the export tax on wheat shipments by about 20 percent for 8-14 October and pushed co...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The market was down at the open and then came even more bearish outside influences. Commodity and financial market prices plunged as the t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0675/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275/short ton, down $1.9 f...
What Spreads and Basis Are Saying About Soybean Exports
The government shutdown has entered its tenth day, leaving the grain markets without two weeks of export data. Fortunately, the USDA AMS and FGIS continue to publish the weekly Export Inspections report, leaving the grain industry not totally blind to exports. Even so, that report covers only a...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis levels provided a brief uplift but that faltered today. China gets mentioned as a possible source of the phantom demand but that seems politi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There were slight gains for soymeal, HRW and hogs, with the rest of the complex showing red. There was good volume for a Friday in corn, soybeans,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.8...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been less overall price significant in corn, it was the seventh session higher in the past eight. Soybeans have closed higher in six of the past sev...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4475/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, up $2.3 from yeste...
What Are Funds Doing Now? Forecasting the Missing CFTC Data
One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report, which shows how funds and commercials are positioned in the markets. The data is highly useful for myriad applications, and the current lack...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $3.1 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13–17 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish undertone, despite zero export duties and firm global demand. Reduced competition among buyers—due to fewer active exporters and limited multinational participation—has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3075/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $1.9...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on markets. The API sent a letter to congress saying it reversed its earlier support for year-round sales of E15 fuel and said the government...
Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further notice. However, there is a temporary suspension of the weekly export sales and monthly supply and demand reports. Nonetheless, USDA is repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
16 October was World Bread Day, just in case you missed it. The European Commodity Exchange held in Berlin Germany last week was well attended with over 4,000 people registered. There were many attendees from Turkey, Egypt, and across North Africa, fewer from Africa and the Middle East but stil...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4 from ye...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess moisture continues to hinder fieldwork in central and western Buenos Aires provinces. As a result, early planting will likely fall short of in...
European Market Analysis
Regional News German and central European cattle values are starting to decline after their recent, multi-year rally. Slaughter cow values declined this week as producers started to cull herds following seasonal patterns. Slaughter steers and heifer prices, however, were stable as supplie...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of course, it is more complex than that but those are authoritative sources. The corn market did not wait for such signals, instead rallying...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.195/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281/short ton, up $4.1 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, up $1 from y...
Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?
CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massive levels. The soybean crop was forecast at a record 177.6 MMT, up sharply from the prior year and easily the largest on record due to expand...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.9/short ton, up $1.6 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 6–10 October 2025 The Russian grains market showed mixed dynamics. While bearish sentiment persisted in the Asian regions and the Volga Valley, prices in European Russia stabilized and even recovered for staple grains. The sharp downward trend observed in September...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.3/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and France have extended their cooperation program in agricultural and rural development for Tunisia. The program is being supported by €76 million from the Agricultural Investment and Modernization Program funded by...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9675/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.1/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Although nearly 97 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated from normal to excellent, excessive rainfall in some areas is becoming a concern. Certain fields have been inaccessible for months, preventing necessary fieldwork. Fungal diseases are spreading, but farmers are still inve...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to dominate global agricultural export policy headlines after Moscow introduced a floating “damper” mechanism for export duties. The “damper” lowered the export tax on wheat shipments by about 20 percent for 8-14 October and pushed co...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The market was down at the open and then came even more bearish outside influences. Commodity and financial market prices plunged as the t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0675/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275/short ton, down $1.9 f...
What Spreads and Basis Are Saying About Soybean Exports
The government shutdown has entered its tenth day, leaving the grain markets without two weeks of export data. Fortunately, the USDA AMS and FGIS continue to publish the weekly Export Inspections report, leaving the grain industry not totally blind to exports. Even so, that report covers only a...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis levels provided a brief uplift but that faltered today. China gets mentioned as a possible source of the phantom demand but that seems politi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down...