Recent Wheat Analysis
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6375/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $332.7/short ton, down $1...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9375/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.67/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $334.4/short ton, up $4.7 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Discount Risk as Grains Quietly Hold Ground
Key Market Developments Macros & Energy: Outside markets continue to trade in a tug-of-war between escalation and de-escalation — and crude oil is right at the center of it. Overnight, crude pulled back toward $87 as headlines pointed to a potential resumption of peace negotiat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 April 2026 During the week in review, the Russian grains market was volatile. Domestic sentiment remained bullish, supporting an upward trend; however, the export market in the south stayed bearish. Given Russia’s export-driven structure, weak export demand is...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.43/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.58/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $329.7/short ton, down $2.2 fro...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Falling Conditions; Cattle Surge to New Records
The CBOT received several pieces of key fundamental information on Tuesday, including updated production figures from CONAB, the results of the USDA’s Monday Crop Progress report, and fresh export sales of corn to Mexico. The result was that wheat popped higher on growing concerns for yie...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria is reported to be the main destination for Russia’s shipments of Ukraine grain from occupied regions. Egypt had been the main destination, but it has now stopped buying grain from occupied areas. Syria and Ukraine plan...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4025/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8225/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6225/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Political Tail Still Wagging the Market Dog
Politics are once again the tail wagging the dog in commodity markets. U.S. negotiations with Iran fell apart (again) over the weekend after Iran refused to agree to a permanent end of its nuclear weapons program. Rather than a return to the recent status quo, however, markets are adjusting to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN With a rainy start to April and excess moisture across much of Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest has slowed, advancing just 2 percentage points over the past week to reach 21 percent of the total area. Rainfall during the second and third dekads of March was significa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds paring back their net long position across the major ag futures contracts, ending a ten-week streak of net buying. Funds sold 62,000 contracts (6.4 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week with selling in corn, soybeans, and CBOT wheat respon...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.41/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.71/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7575/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $331.8/short ton, up $14.2 from...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Factors Equals Mixed Day
There are so many conflicting narratives between war and peace, rain and drought, hopes and fears, that it was a mixed day of trading on Friday, and a mixed outcome for the week. For today, corn suffered its sixth lower day in the past seven trading sessions. There was high volume in soyb...
Wheat’s Fall from Grace
Buried in the many mountains of USDA data last week was the March 2026 Prospective Plantings report. There you will find one specific figure among the many that was a record: USDA’s lowest ever prospective plantings estimate for wheat. It was not a surprise. U.S. wheat plantings and harve...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.745/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $317.6/short ton, up $3.5...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals Replace War Trading
Geopolitics has proven that it beats weather as a volatility driver, but agricultural markets and financials returned to fundamentals today. The truce/non-truce/truce had its influences, with the soy sector following oil higher, but wheat traded down on stocks reports while corn buyers’ e...
Market Commentary: Energies Collapse on Ceasefire News but Grains Reclaim Early Losses
Once again, Trump, Iran, and the Middle East were the hub around which the CBOT trade revolved on Wednesday. Late Tuesday, the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, just days after President Trump threatened to escalate attacks against the Middle Eastern country. In the annou...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt is increasingly finding itself caught between Russia and Ukraine, in a battle for supplying its domestic wheat markets. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, is facing political pressure and wooing from both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Ze...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 March - 3 April 2026 Market overview The Russian grains market remained broadly stable during the week, with a slightly firmer undertone. Export values were mostly steady, while the domestic market moved modestly higher. Broader geopolitical tensions had only a limited...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8025/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.62/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.1/short ton, up $2.3...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5825/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, down $4.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Risk is Priced In — But Not Yet Believed
Key Market Developments Macro/Geopolitics: Markets are staring down a deadline tonight as President Donald Trump pushes Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 PM Eastern. So far, Iran has rejected the U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal — reportedly delivered through Pakistan &mdash...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt has said that it will no longer import any shipments of grain exported by Russia from the occupied areas of Ukraine. Egypt has increased its purchase price for local wheat by about 11 percent in order to increase domestic pu...
Market Commentary: The Long-Run Draws Near
The CBOT markets were surprisingly insulated from a jump in crude oil that started the week. Crude oil futures rallied to $115/brl - their highest levels since the earliest days of the U.S.-Iran war - on rhetoric from the White House that signaled an escalation in the conflict. While the oil he...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6675/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1.4 fro...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 6 April)
Update for 6 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued to advance nationwide, gaining 3.8 percentage points on the week to reach 19 percent of planted area. Fieldwork maintained a solid pace across most of the agricultural region, with the national average yield currently estimated at 8.53 MT/...
Market Commentary: War and Easter Exit Strategy
There were a lot of moving parts on the last trading day of the holiday-shortened week, but liquidation and profit-taking may have been the strongest. A prolonged war and higher energy prices will impact consumption and inflation, while supporting biofuels. Storm systems may reduce some of the...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.2/short ton, down $3 fr...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.975/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.685/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $318.2/short ton, up $1.8...
Market Commentary: Plenty of Information — No Clear Direction
Key Market Developments Macro: Tension Without Direction Markets are trading the tension between escalation and resolution — and neither side has control. Both equities and commodities tested key technical levels this week before reversing sharply on headlines suggesting — at least...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 March 2026 The Russian grains market was stable to slightly firmer during the week. Export activity and port trading remained slow, while the domestic market and inland trade reflected firmer farmer price expectations. Even so, gains were limited, and the broa...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1625/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.71/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $316.4/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on USDA Data, Hopes for End to Middle East Conflict
Except for lean hog futures, the CBOT and CME markets were higher on Tuesday in a combination of bullish factors. The day’s strength started after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he is willing to end hostilities in the Middle East even if the Strait of Hor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s 2026 wheat imports are seen increasing by about 8.3 percent to 2.4 million MT, according to the FAO, as a result of the 16 percent lower 2025 wheat crop — down to 4.4 MMT in 2025 from 5.2 MMT in 2024. Planting f...
March Grain Stocks Summary
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.07/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5975/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.9/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: CBOT Cautious Ahead of Acreage, Stocks Reports
The CBOT took a bit of a breather on Monday as traders waited for the upcoming Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, which the USDA will issue Tuesday at midday. Traders were reluctant to expand risk too much ahead of these two reports, which often change market direction and tone for...
Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports Preview
The 2026 USDA Prospective Plantings Report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The report surveys farmer planting intentions for major crops, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. It also asks about 2025 planted and prevent-plant acres. This report gives the first real snapshot of what planted ac...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance at the national level. After a weekly gain of 2.2 percentage points, harvest has reached 15.2 percent of the suitable area. Although recent rainfall has partially limited fieldwork, it has not had a significant impact on overall...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the tenth straight week. Funds added 67,000 contracts (7.7 percent) to their all-ags net long position – nearly doubling the prior week’s purchases - with buying in corn and so...
Market Commentary: Expected Biofuel Announcement Cannot Dislodge War Worries
Thursday marked the worst day for stocks in weeks despite word on the street to “buy,” since valuations have once again become attractive. But apparently not yet. History suggests a rebound with President Trump politically compelled to dream up some form of policy stimulus on top of...
Downside Risk for Wheat into 2026/27
The current rally in wheat futures is widely known to be driven by fund buying in response to the conflict in the Middle East. Part of the price gains has also been motivated by concerns for the HRW crop in the U.S. Plains amid dry weather and the strong U.S. wheat export pace to date. What has...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5925/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, down $6.8 from ye...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 13-19, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 397,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 383,500 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 10 percent...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.1/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: War Worries Continue to Drive the Narrative
War-related higher energies are a mixed story for ags. They could stymie economic growth and thus demand, but they open the door for better biofuel sales. Ags were mostly in the green today, betting on the biofuel market. Reports Export Sales: Last week’s new commitments by foreign...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9775/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7175/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $319.8/short ton, down $2.6...
Market Commentary: Demand Builds, Markets Await Confirmation
Key Market Developments Macro: Playing or Trading “Truth or Dare” We’ve entered the “truth or dare” phase of this market — where conviction takes a backseat and headlines drive direction. At any given moment, the narrative shifts: progress in negotiations on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 March 2026 During the second week of February, the Russian grains market showed a sharp divergence between domestic and export trends. The domestic market was slightly bullish but overall remained stable. In contrast, export market trading in RUB was mostly be...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.55/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, down $4.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Diminishing Energy Impacts on CBOT Trade
Tuesday’s energy markets took back about half of Monday’s losses as tensions in the Arab Gulf flared again, despite recent announcements of diplomatic talks and a five-day cooling-down period from the U.S. Overnight, Iran and Israel launched new rounds of attacks on each other, and...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt has seen a sharp rise in wheat prices due to increased shipping costs and the 9 percent drop in the value of Egypt’s currency. Wheat prices in Egypt are said to be up by as much as $24/MT. Both ocean freight costs and...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $326.6/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Oil and Iran Conflict Still in Drivers’ Seat, but This Time Creating Pressure
Volatility has been no stranger to the CBOT these past three weeks, and the one consistency during this time has been the dramatic coupling of ag markets’ fortunes to the foibles of crude oil. That was again true on Monday, but this time crude oil offered a bearish – rather than sup...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest continues to move forward and has now reached 13 percent of planted area, with fieldwork still concentrated in the North Core. Progress there remains steady, and yields are averaging 9.82 MT/ha. Harvest is also beginning to pick up in the South Core, where ea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the ninth straight week. Funds added 32,000 contracts (3.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a much smaller effort than the prior week’s 244,000-contract bu...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $328/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6975/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.08/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.685/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, up $10.8 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 6-12, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 189,900 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 58 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 383,100 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 March 2026 Russia’s grain market turned firmer in the second week of March, led by stronger price action in Asian Russia, where domestic values continue adjusting higher toward neighboring Kazakh levels. By contrast, European Russia and the Black Sea rema...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.7/short ton, down $0.5 from ye...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The Muslim month of Ramadan is expected to end around 19 March with the beginning of the Eid-al-Fitr holiday — the Eid holiday lasts up to five days depending on the country. Businesses, banks, and government offices will be...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week-on-week advance of 3.6 percentage points, the corn harvest reached 7.2 percent of the national area, with fieldwork concentrated mainly in Núcleo Norte and the east-central area of Entre Ríos, where yields are averaging 9.57 MT/ha and 6.52 MT/ha, respectively. Ea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2525/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.7/short ton, up $2.5 f...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 27-March 5, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 455,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 432,000 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week, but dow...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.2/short ton, up $4.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
WASDE Wheat - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories are unchanged from last month. Global supplies increased modestly by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million and global ending stocks remain at a 5-year high. The result is that the average U.S. farm price is adjusted up modestly...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 March 2026 During the week of 02–06 March, the Russian grains market stabilized and showed early signs of recovery across most grains, while pulses remained weak. The developing bullish tone reflects geopolitical developments and movements in global commod...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.5/short ton, up $1 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Middle Eastern countries have imported an average of close to 29 million MT of grains and feed products per year over the past five years according to an Ag Perspectives report. These include wheat, corn, barley, soybeans, soymeal...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.0325/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The corn harvest is beginning to gain momentum in Argentina. So far, 7 percent of the area has been harvested, with the core corn region already reaching 10 percent. Yields remain heterogeneous. Some areas are performing well above average, while others are showing the impact of late-seaso...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the seventh straight week. Funds added 125,000 contracts (27 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with buying in soybeans and corn primarily responsible for the move. ...
Market Commentary: War, Crude Oil Still Dominate
The geopolitics of war in Iran are said to now be eclipsing any market focus on next week’s USDA March WASDE report. Volumes were modest in today’s trading, but the message was nonetheless clear – shipping grain and inputs is getting complicated. Notably, the ratio of De...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1675/bushel, up $0.33 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0075/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, up $7.9 from ye...
Middle East Grain Trade Trends
Somewhat lost in the current discussion over the impacts of the conflict in Iran and the Persian Gulf is the impact on grain trade. The region is not usually at the top of grain market analysts’ thinking when it comes to major demand centers, yet it accounts for significant global grain c...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7925/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.3/short ton, down $0.6 f...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 20-26, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 203,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 348,900 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 24 percent fro...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.695/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.9/short ton, down $...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 February 2026 The Russian grain market turned bearish during the final week of February as global trends and heavy domestic stocks pressured values across most regions. According to updated 2025 crop data from Rosstat, total grain production reached 141.15 mil...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.465/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.705/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.7/short ton, up $1.8 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s flour exports in 2025, at 2.36 MMT, were back up close to 2019 levels but well below the five-year average of close to 3.0 MMT. Exports were low due to drought and Turkey’s export restrictions. Shipments of fl...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The latest crop update from the EU Commission’s MARS crop monitoring division reported “broadly satisfactory” conditions across much of the bloc through February. Persistent frost in parts of northern and eastern Europe is a concern for the winter crops, pa...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.64/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.9/short ton, down...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT As February draws to a close, wheat exports during the first quarter of the marketing year (December–February) are approaching 10 MMT, compared with a five-year average of 5 MMT. Argentina’s ample wheat supply continues to weigh on both global and domestic prices. The country...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the sixth straight week. Funds added 176,000 contracts (60 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with strong and mostly uniform buying across the ag sector. The soy co...
Market Commentary: Green Despite Many Obstacles
There was mostly green on the board for Friday and for the week as a whole. Another contract high was printed by soyoil as higher energies, higher inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions all favored commodities. There are some topical contrasts. For example, the cattle market is t...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.915/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.5/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6375/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $332.7/short ton, down $1...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9375/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.67/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $334.4/short ton, up $4.7 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Discount Risk as Grains Quietly Hold Ground
Key Market Developments Macros & Energy: Outside markets continue to trade in a tug-of-war between escalation and de-escalation — and crude oil is right at the center of it. Overnight, crude pulled back toward $87 as headlines pointed to a potential resumption of peace negotiat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 April 2026 During the week in review, the Russian grains market was volatile. Domestic sentiment remained bullish, supporting an upward trend; however, the export market in the south stayed bearish. Given Russia’s export-driven structure, weak export demand is...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.43/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.58/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $329.7/short ton, down $2.2 fro...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Falling Conditions; Cattle Surge to New Records
The CBOT received several pieces of key fundamental information on Tuesday, including updated production figures from CONAB, the results of the USDA’s Monday Crop Progress report, and fresh export sales of corn to Mexico. The result was that wheat popped higher on growing concerns for yie...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria is reported to be the main destination for Russia’s shipments of Ukraine grain from occupied regions. Egypt had been the main destination, but it has now stopped buying grain from occupied areas. Syria and Ukraine plan...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4025/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8225/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6225/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Political Tail Still Wagging the Market Dog
Politics are once again the tail wagging the dog in commodity markets. U.S. negotiations with Iran fell apart (again) over the weekend after Iran refused to agree to a permanent end of its nuclear weapons program. Rather than a return to the recent status quo, however, markets are adjusting to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN With a rainy start to April and excess moisture across much of Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest has slowed, advancing just 2 percentage points over the past week to reach 21 percent of the total area. Rainfall during the second and third dekads of March was significa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds paring back their net long position across the major ag futures contracts, ending a ten-week streak of net buying. Funds sold 62,000 contracts (6.4 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week with selling in corn, soybeans, and CBOT wheat respon...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.41/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.71/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7575/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $331.8/short ton, up $14.2 from...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Factors Equals Mixed Day
There are so many conflicting narratives between war and peace, rain and drought, hopes and fears, that it was a mixed day of trading on Friday, and a mixed outcome for the week. For today, corn suffered its sixth lower day in the past seven trading sessions. There was high volume in soyb...
Wheat’s Fall from Grace
Buried in the many mountains of USDA data last week was the March 2026 Prospective Plantings report. There you will find one specific figure among the many that was a record: USDA’s lowest ever prospective plantings estimate for wheat. It was not a surprise. U.S. wheat plantings and harve...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.745/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $317.6/short ton, up $3.5...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals Replace War Trading
Geopolitics has proven that it beats weather as a volatility driver, but agricultural markets and financials returned to fundamentals today. The truce/non-truce/truce had its influences, with the soy sector following oil higher, but wheat traded down on stocks reports while corn buyers’ e...
Market Commentary: Energies Collapse on Ceasefire News but Grains Reclaim Early Losses
Once again, Trump, Iran, and the Middle East were the hub around which the CBOT trade revolved on Wednesday. Late Tuesday, the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, just days after President Trump threatened to escalate attacks against the Middle Eastern country. In the annou...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt is increasingly finding itself caught between Russia and Ukraine, in a battle for supplying its domestic wheat markets. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, is facing political pressure and wooing from both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Ze...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 March - 3 April 2026 Market overview The Russian grains market remained broadly stable during the week, with a slightly firmer undertone. Export values were mostly steady, while the domestic market moved modestly higher. Broader geopolitical tensions had only a limited...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8025/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.62/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.1/short ton, up $2.3...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5825/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, down $4.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Risk is Priced In — But Not Yet Believed
Key Market Developments Macro/Geopolitics: Markets are staring down a deadline tonight as President Donald Trump pushes Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 PM Eastern. So far, Iran has rejected the U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal — reportedly delivered through Pakistan &mdash...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt has said that it will no longer import any shipments of grain exported by Russia from the occupied areas of Ukraine. Egypt has increased its purchase price for local wheat by about 11 percent in order to increase domestic pu...
Market Commentary: The Long-Run Draws Near
The CBOT markets were surprisingly insulated from a jump in crude oil that started the week. Crude oil futures rallied to $115/brl - their highest levels since the earliest days of the U.S.-Iran war - on rhetoric from the White House that signaled an escalation in the conflict. While the oil he...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6675/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1.4 fro...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 6 April)
Update for 6 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued to advance nationwide, gaining 3.8 percentage points on the week to reach 19 percent of planted area. Fieldwork maintained a solid pace across most of the agricultural region, with the national average yield currently estimated at 8.53 MT/...
Market Commentary: War and Easter Exit Strategy
There were a lot of moving parts on the last trading day of the holiday-shortened week, but liquidation and profit-taking may have been the strongest. A prolonged war and higher energy prices will impact consumption and inflation, while supporting biofuels. Storm systems may reduce some of the...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.2/short ton, down $3 fr...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.975/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.685/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $318.2/short ton, up $1.8...
Market Commentary: Plenty of Information — No Clear Direction
Key Market Developments Macro: Tension Without Direction Markets are trading the tension between escalation and resolution — and neither side has control. Both equities and commodities tested key technical levels this week before reversing sharply on headlines suggesting — at least...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 March 2026 The Russian grains market was stable to slightly firmer during the week. Export activity and port trading remained slow, while the domestic market and inland trade reflected firmer farmer price expectations. Even so, gains were limited, and the broa...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1625/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.71/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $316.4/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on USDA Data, Hopes for End to Middle East Conflict
Except for lean hog futures, the CBOT and CME markets were higher on Tuesday in a combination of bullish factors. The day’s strength started after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he is willing to end hostilities in the Middle East even if the Strait of Hor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s 2026 wheat imports are seen increasing by about 8.3 percent to 2.4 million MT, according to the FAO, as a result of the 16 percent lower 2025 wheat crop — down to 4.4 MMT in 2025 from 5.2 MMT in 2024. Planting f...
March Grain Stocks Summary
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.07/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5975/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.9/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: CBOT Cautious Ahead of Acreage, Stocks Reports
The CBOT took a bit of a breather on Monday as traders waited for the upcoming Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, which the USDA will issue Tuesday at midday. Traders were reluctant to expand risk too much ahead of these two reports, which often change market direction and tone for...
Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports Preview
The 2026 USDA Prospective Plantings Report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The report surveys farmer planting intentions for major crops, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. It also asks about 2025 planted and prevent-plant acres. This report gives the first real snapshot of what planted ac...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance at the national level. After a weekly gain of 2.2 percentage points, harvest has reached 15.2 percent of the suitable area. Although recent rainfall has partially limited fieldwork, it has not had a significant impact on overall...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the tenth straight week. Funds added 67,000 contracts (7.7 percent) to their all-ags net long position – nearly doubling the prior week’s purchases - with buying in corn and so...
Market Commentary: Expected Biofuel Announcement Cannot Dislodge War Worries
Thursday marked the worst day for stocks in weeks despite word on the street to “buy,” since valuations have once again become attractive. But apparently not yet. History suggests a rebound with President Trump politically compelled to dream up some form of policy stimulus on top of...
Downside Risk for Wheat into 2026/27
The current rally in wheat futures is widely known to be driven by fund buying in response to the conflict in the Middle East. Part of the price gains has also been motivated by concerns for the HRW crop in the U.S. Plains amid dry weather and the strong U.S. wheat export pace to date. What has...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5925/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, down $6.8 from ye...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 13-19, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 397,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 383,500 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 10 percent...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.1/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: War Worries Continue to Drive the Narrative
War-related higher energies are a mixed story for ags. They could stymie economic growth and thus demand, but they open the door for better biofuel sales. Ags were mostly in the green today, betting on the biofuel market. Reports Export Sales: Last week’s new commitments by foreign...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9775/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7175/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $319.8/short ton, down $2.6...
Market Commentary: Demand Builds, Markets Await Confirmation
Key Market Developments Macro: Playing or Trading “Truth or Dare” We’ve entered the “truth or dare” phase of this market — where conviction takes a backseat and headlines drive direction. At any given moment, the narrative shifts: progress in negotiations on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 March 2026 During the second week of February, the Russian grains market showed a sharp divergence between domestic and export trends. The domestic market was slightly bullish but overall remained stable. In contrast, export market trading in RUB was mostly be...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.55/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, down $4.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Diminishing Energy Impacts on CBOT Trade
Tuesday’s energy markets took back about half of Monday’s losses as tensions in the Arab Gulf flared again, despite recent announcements of diplomatic talks and a five-day cooling-down period from the U.S. Overnight, Iran and Israel launched new rounds of attacks on each other, and...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt has seen a sharp rise in wheat prices due to increased shipping costs and the 9 percent drop in the value of Egypt’s currency. Wheat prices in Egypt are said to be up by as much as $24/MT. Both ocean freight costs and...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $326.6/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Oil and Iran Conflict Still in Drivers’ Seat, but This Time Creating Pressure
Volatility has been no stranger to the CBOT these past three weeks, and the one consistency during this time has been the dramatic coupling of ag markets’ fortunes to the foibles of crude oil. That was again true on Monday, but this time crude oil offered a bearish – rather than sup...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest continues to move forward and has now reached 13 percent of planted area, with fieldwork still concentrated in the North Core. Progress there remains steady, and yields are averaging 9.82 MT/ha. Harvest is also beginning to pick up in the South Core, where ea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the ninth straight week. Funds added 32,000 contracts (3.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a much smaller effort than the prior week’s 244,000-contract bu...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $328/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6975/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.08/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.685/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, up $10.8 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 6-12, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 189,900 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 58 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 383,100 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 March 2026 Russia’s grain market turned firmer in the second week of March, led by stronger price action in Asian Russia, where domestic values continue adjusting higher toward neighboring Kazakh levels. By contrast, European Russia and the Black Sea rema...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.7/short ton, down $0.5 from ye...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The Muslim month of Ramadan is expected to end around 19 March with the beginning of the Eid-al-Fitr holiday — the Eid holiday lasts up to five days depending on the country. Businesses, banks, and government offices will be...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week-on-week advance of 3.6 percentage points, the corn harvest reached 7.2 percent of the national area, with fieldwork concentrated mainly in Núcleo Norte and the east-central area of Entre Ríos, where yields are averaging 9.57 MT/ha and 6.52 MT/ha, respectively. Ea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2525/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.7/short ton, up $2.5 f...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 27-March 5, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 455,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 432,000 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week, but dow...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.2/short ton, up $4.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
WASDE Wheat - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories are unchanged from last month. Global supplies increased modestly by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million and global ending stocks remain at a 5-year high. The result is that the average U.S. farm price is adjusted up modestly...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 March 2026 During the week of 02–06 March, the Russian grains market stabilized and showed early signs of recovery across most grains, while pulses remained weak. The developing bullish tone reflects geopolitical developments and movements in global commod...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.5/short ton, up $1 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Middle Eastern countries have imported an average of close to 29 million MT of grains and feed products per year over the past five years according to an Ag Perspectives report. These include wheat, corn, barley, soybeans, soymeal...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.0325/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The corn harvest is beginning to gain momentum in Argentina. So far, 7 percent of the area has been harvested, with the core corn region already reaching 10 percent. Yields remain heterogeneous. Some areas are performing well above average, while others are showing the impact of late-seaso...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the seventh straight week. Funds added 125,000 contracts (27 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with buying in soybeans and corn primarily responsible for the move. ...
Market Commentary: War, Crude Oil Still Dominate
The geopolitics of war in Iran are said to now be eclipsing any market focus on next week’s USDA March WASDE report. Volumes were modest in today’s trading, but the message was nonetheless clear – shipping grain and inputs is getting complicated. Notably, the ratio of De...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1675/bushel, up $0.33 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0075/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, up $7.9 from ye...
Middle East Grain Trade Trends
Somewhat lost in the current discussion over the impacts of the conflict in Iran and the Persian Gulf is the impact on grain trade. The region is not usually at the top of grain market analysts’ thinking when it comes to major demand centers, yet it accounts for significant global grain c...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7925/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.3/short ton, down $0.6 f...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 20-26, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 203,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 348,900 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 24 percent fro...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.695/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.9/short ton, down $...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 February 2026 The Russian grain market turned bearish during the final week of February as global trends and heavy domestic stocks pressured values across most regions. According to updated 2025 crop data from Rosstat, total grain production reached 141.15 mil...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.465/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.705/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.7/short ton, up $1.8 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s flour exports in 2025, at 2.36 MMT, were back up close to 2019 levels but well below the five-year average of close to 3.0 MMT. Exports were low due to drought and Turkey’s export restrictions. Shipments of fl...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The latest crop update from the EU Commission’s MARS crop monitoring division reported “broadly satisfactory” conditions across much of the bloc through February. Persistent frost in parts of northern and eastern Europe is a concern for the winter crops, pa...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.64/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.9/short ton, down...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT As February draws to a close, wheat exports during the first quarter of the marketing year (December–February) are approaching 10 MMT, compared with a five-year average of 5 MMT. Argentina’s ample wheat supply continues to weigh on both global and domestic prices. The country...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the sixth straight week. Funds added 176,000 contracts (60 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with strong and mostly uniform buying across the ag sector. The soy co...
Market Commentary: Green Despite Many Obstacles
There was mostly green on the board for Friday and for the week as a whole. Another contract high was printed by soyoil as higher energies, higher inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions all favored commodities. There are some topical contrasts. For example, the cattle market is t...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.915/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.5/short ton, down $0.4 from...