World Perspectives

Economic Growth and Food Inflation

July data shows that the ag trade situation has been a drag on inflationary pressure, mostly through dropped earnings from exports. Total export prices declined 0.5 percent, mostly driven by general farm commodities (down 5.3 percent) and, specifically, soybeans (down 14.1 percent). USDA will release its latest monthly forecast for food inflation later this week, and it will be instructive. In July, the broad category of “all food” items was adjusted down to an expected 0.75-1.75 percent annual inflation rate for 2018 and projected to be 1.5-2.5 percent for 2019. Food at home, which is about 58 percent of total domestic consumption, was the deflationary driver, and every category except for sugar and sweets was steady or adjust...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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