The U.S. beef cow herd stabilized somewhat in 2024. The average culling rate was 10.5 percent, but with a beef cow herd of 28 million, the cull rate would have to be around 9 percent – or less – and heifer retention must increase in order to enter into an expansion phase.   Holding back heifer retention is the current record price level for feeder cattle; producers are more than willing to take advantage of those record prices than to invest in future expansion. For many operations, current production risks outweigh potential future returns. April prices for medium to large-frame feeder cattle between 600 and 650 pounds are $290/cwt.

Steer prices are projected to reach $205.51/cwt for the year, up 10 percent, while fe...