World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Will the trade dispute with China become the “Black Swan” event for 2018 markets? Market chatter today would suggest it will, but as John Baize indicated in his most recent analysis (see Ag Perspectives, 22 March), it will be very difficult for China to cut the U.S. out of at least a significant portion of its market. Doing so would force a major shift in trade patterns as the rest of the world would have to come to the U.S. if China takes all of South America’s soybeans. Import demand of 100 MMT (and growing annually) is a huge number. Weather across the U.S. as the planting season rapidly approaches doesn’t bode well for an early start. Today’s eight-14 day weather maps (see below) show no evidence of a mu...

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feed-grains

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feed-grains

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Trade Deal, Retaliation List, Mixed Outcomes

Soybeans and soyoil held their gains from higher overnight closes, but the guidance of being higher to neutral overnight in corn, wheat and meal was rejected by day traders. Neither solid corn export sales, weather concerns in European and Chinese wheat, nor the prospect of trade agreement reli...

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