Brazil Soy Crop Keeps Declining The size of the Brazilian soybean crop seems to decline with each passing week. Most estimates by government and private analysts are now at least 12 MMT below earlier forecasts of around 125 MMT, and some have it much smaller than that. USDA’s estimate of last week was 117 MMT, but it is normally cautious about lowering its projections, and a further decrease next month is likely. Oil World has reduced its forecast to 113.5 MMT but suggests the total may be even lower. (It also expects the crop in Paraguay to be no more than 8.4 MMT versus 9.95 MMT a year ago.) This week the Brazilian consulting firm AgRural lowered its forecast for the same soybean crop by almost 4.5 MMT to 112.5 MMT, which would be...
What You Need to Know Today: Traders are increasingly focused on next Wednesday’s August WASDE report, with corn and soybean yield estimates expected to drive the next major move in grain markets. Recent crop condition declines and late-July heat have increased uncertainty around USDA&rs...
Yesterday the Senate Agriculture Committee held its markup of the “skinny” farm bill, and it was derailed over Democratic opposition to plans for imposing food stamp costs on state governments. The Democrats pushed back on a provision that required states to pick up a larger share o...
Key Takeaways: WPI’s 2025/26 corn export models continue to reflect strong international demand and put the total marketing year volume slightly above USDA’s estimates. Strong old crop corn exports are offset by weaker feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks slightly ele...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.