World Perspectives
soy-oilseeds

U.S. Soybean Numbers Still Bearish

The U.S. soybean market has had a bearish fundamental outlook for well over a year. Record U.S. and Brazilian crops in 2017 pushed world supplies to record levels despite the consistent growing demand from China. Most market analysts expected soybean futures prices would drop to below $9.00/bushel, and the most bearish forecasts had them at sub-$8.00/bushel. The world’s fundamental traders have fought the short side of the market, while the big speculative funds have traded the long side of both soybean and soymeal futures. The funds have been the winners despite the outwardly bearish fundamentals. The last straw for the bearish fundamentals was the severe drought across Argentina that reduced soybean production there from early esti...

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Summary of Futures

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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