USDA’s meat trade data for April were released this week, and global beef demand remains exceptionally strong, despite all the various hurdles and ch...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.73/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.7125/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Domestic Tariff War; IPEF/APEP Blur
Domestic Tariff War Tariffs are applied to imported goods but in the U.S. the debate over their application to China has become a domestic fight. U.S. Trea...
Export Sales
Export Sales for May 27-June 2, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 451,000 MT for the 2022/2023 marketing year, which began June 1. Corn: Net sale...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Score New Highs on Strong Demand; WPI U.S. Grain S&D Forecasts
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday with soybeans again leading the way. Strong commercial demand for soybeans is pushing basis levels sharply higher a...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Weak Demand Continues to Hold Back Live Hog Prices According to latest surveys conducted by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), th...
WTO Reforms; Cash in Lieu of Commodities; Too Much Fun
WTO Reforms Brazil has proposed annual instead of biennial ministerial meetings. The U.S. and EU agree with this plan, arguing it would make the WTO more r...
Domestic and Export Flour Limits
U.S. domestic wheat flour consumption boomed in 2020 when the COVID quarantine created a surge in home baking aficionados. In what may be a foretelling of...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.645/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.7475/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 30 May – 3 June 2022 Russian markets remained bearish, however in certain geographical areas prices were stagnant where selle...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Higher on Spread Trade, Commercial Demand; Wheat Falls Ahead of Russia-Turkey Talks
Non-Russia fundamentals were finally at the forefront of the CBOT on Tuesday with corn and soybean futures rallying on strong commercial demand and bull sp...
Budget Guard Rails for 2023 Farm Bill
The House Agriculture Committee will hold two farm bill hearings this week, one on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and one on crop pro...
Sacrificing the Future; Phosphorus Paradox
Sacrificing the Future The ASPCA has announced $100,000 in grants for its Fund to End Factory Farming. Like others in the small is better camp, the result...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.57/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.7175/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Dominance in Rice
India is the world’s largest exporter of rice and Refinitiv points out that India’s export rice prices have been consistently lower than that o...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rally as Russia Blows Up Hopes for Export Corridor
Over the weekend, Russia intensified its offensive in eastern Ukraine and bombed a Cargill-owned export facility in southern Ukraine. The export facility f...
Orbán and AMLO; IPEF Leverage
Orbán and AMLO The EU must contend with Hungarian President Viktor Orbán and the U.S. must contend with Mexican President Andrés Manue...
EPA’s Final RVO Rule
As Matt Herrington noted on Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency released the final required volume obligations (RVO) rule which set the biofuels bl...
Spudtacular
FAO Director General Qu Dongyu told the World Potato Conference that the global potato crop could double over the next decade to take a larger role in feed...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Lack of rain and low soil moisture are still issues for Argentine farmers as they approach the wheat planting window. A few days ago, small areas rec...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.425/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.93/bushel, up $0.53 from yesterday's close. J...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s spring planting has reached 13.182 Mha, 78 percent of the expected acreage. Of that, 4.553 Mha were sown to corn (83 pe...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower as Ukraine Export Corridor Talks Continue; EPA Releases 2022 Biofuel Mandates
The CBOT was mostly lower to end the week with cattle and soyoil the only major markets to post gains. China is on its Dragon Boat holiday, which kept mark...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.27/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.4/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Export Sales
Export Sales for May 20-26, 2022 Wheat: Net sales 700 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 98 pe...
Flailing on Inflation; Japan’s Beef Craving; Incongruous Messaging
Flailing on Inflation Many months after inflation began eating into pocketbooks, the Biden Administration is on a full court press to try and address the p...
Oilseeds Highlights – Some Volatility
Over this past week, soybeans have gone up 50 cents in value and fallen 50 cents in value. Today, they appear to be falling again. Unlike wheat, the volati...
Mexico Fighting Inflation by Suspending Tariffs
Mexico announced last month that it is suspending import duties on 66 tariff lines for food and input items in order to fight inflation. The suspension wil...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday
After sharp losses earlier in the week, the market turned around today for everything but July corn. Egypt’s GASC paid a record sum for wheat, indica...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Continues Run, White Feather Broilers Rebound China’s national average live hog price continued its steady climb to close ou...
Biden Trade Policy; Messaging Food Insecure; PSH without Answers
Biden Trade Policy The Biden Administration’s approach to trade policy continues to be plodding and cautious. After meeting with New Zealand Prime Mi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.3025/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.5825/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Livestock Round Up: Summer Meat Demand
A key question now that the meat and poultry markets are moving into the high demand season is how consumer demand will hold up – especially compared...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.3125/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.4625 from yesterday's clos...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Long Liquidation, Ukraine Export Rumors; Hogs Rally as Shanghai Ends Lockdowns
The CBOT attempted to stabilize overnight and in early-morning trade on Wednesday, but headlines from the Black Sea and persistent long liquidation pushed...
Wash and Repeat
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack today announced at last $2.1 billion for various programs under a “Framework for Shoring Up the Food Supply Chain and Tran...
Supercycle
Depending on global commodity supply/demand balances, crop prices tend to decline at harvest and then rise as the marketing year progresses and surplus sup...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 May 2022 Russian weather forecasting center chief Roman Wilfand is predicting a good grains and oilseeds crop this season. Coo...
Market Commentary – Selling the Rumor
Very few people, other than apparently some in the grain trade, trust Vladimir Putin. The continued belief that he will allow grain to begin flowing out of...
Administration’s Plans to Transform the Ag and Food Sector Unveiled Tomorrow
Last Thursday, WPI reported on the new rule and notice of proposed rules coming from the Packers and Stockyard Division (PSD) of the Agricultural Marketing...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.535/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.875/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Trade versus Aid; Precision without Precise Tools
Trade versus Aid Former New Zealand Trade Ambassador Mike Moore made note that through most of the multilateral trade negotiations, developing countries ha...
Volume versus Trade Balance
An analysis by Bloomberg revealed how dominant China is in trading with nations in the Indo-Pacific. In a subset of 15 countries, the closest balance in tr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey reportedly rejected a shipment of 57,000 MT of Indian durum wheat...
Market Commentary: Defensive into the Holiday
With crops in short supply and weather far from perfect, traders did not want to be short corn, wheat, and soybeans going into a three-day hiatus in tradin...
Memorial Day Holiday
Monday, 30 May is a U.S. holiday, the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 31 May...
USDA Offers Early Termination of CRP Contracts
Yesterday, USDA announced that farmers in their last year of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) contracts can opt out early this year. About 3.4 million ac...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.7725/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.575/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Middle Kingdom Approach; Friday Snippets
Middle Kingdom Approach U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken articulated the Biden Administration’s policy toward China in a highly nuanced fashion...
Oilseeds Highlights: Troubles and Opportunities
Troubled Northern Beans There are nearly weekly reports of new U.S. soybean crushing plants being built to accommodate the policy-driven demand for renewab...
Market Commentary: Truth Telling and Caution
An overly cautious market let go of the tease that Russia might negotiate the exit of Ukrainian grain. Vladimir Putin cannot abide the UN’s wishes be...
Livestock Round Up: GIPSA Rules 2.0
USDA’s Ag Marketing Service Packers and Stockyards Division (PSD) released a draft of the first of three proposed rules today: Transparency in Poultr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.65/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&n...
Bark Worse than Bite; Unprotecting Plants; ESG Slowly Joining Carbon
Bark Worse than Bite The Biden Administration has proposed new rules for poultry companies to be more transparent with growers about the number of chicks t...
Export Sales
Export Sales for May 13-19, 2022. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 2,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Early on Russian Propaganda, Recovers to End Near Day’s High
The CBOT turned lower again on Wednesday with wheat leading the way on headlines that Russia may establish export corridors for Ukrainian grain/ag products...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID Deaths Fall to One Per Week, Lockdown Damage Deepens Through yesterday, data from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Center indicate the trailin...
IPEF Missing Link; Sac Mixte; Inflation and Reconciliation
IPEF Missing Link The Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) is a set of laudable goals, but it lacks the traditional grease b...
Down Under Limits
Major wheat exporters have a tremendous opportunity if they can take their advantage. India was thought to be in the catbird seat. Production was going to...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.7225/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.4825/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 16-20 May 2022 As of 17 May, spring planting was in line with last year, yet still behind 2020 by 40 percent and 2019 by 30 percent...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls as China Approves Brazilian Imports; Wheat Falls on Technical Selling, Acreage Switch Fears
The CBOT waivered again on Tuesday with corn and wheat posting losses for the day while soybeans firmed once again. News that China is likely to soon appro...
Crazy Ideas; Strategery
Crazy Ideas Whenever there is a spike in commodity prices, the craziest ideas are put forth to supposedly solve the “problem.” Leading th...
U.S. Policy Toward China Getting More Complicated
Yesterday, we covered the outline of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and the role that plays in relation to China. Now, the Biden Administration...
Fundamentals versus Exports
Shipping and refrigeration costs become larger factors in trade during periods of high energy prices such as the present. Suppliers with lower energy costs...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.7175/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.5475/bushel, down $0.3525 from yesterday's close...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Central Bank has increased interest rates by 2 percent to a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.8625/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.9/bushel, up $0.2125 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally as Russia Rejects Ukrainian Export Corridors; U.S. Corn, Soy Planting Makes Strong Progress
CBOT grains posted slight gains for the day while the soy complex worked its way lower as traders unwound long grain/short soy spreads that were placed las...
April Cold Storage Report
April 2022 total red meat and poultry stocks were up from March and were 8.3 percent greater than April 2021 as the industry continues to rebuild stockpile...
IPEF Reality; Economic Ambiguity; For Sure No
IPEF Reality President Biden’s launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is a confusing mess but is unlikely to be what the Chinese are calling &...
Indo-Pacific Economic Framework: Trade Rules without Trade Access
On his trip to Asia, President Biden announced the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) for Prosperity, along with 12 countries in the region. The plan i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Currently, Argentina’s corn harvest is 27.4 percent complete after advancing another 1 percent last week. The harvest is significantly delayed c...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Parliament approved duty-free imports of agricultural products from Ukraine for a one-year period. The U.S. is reportedly...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls Despite Low KS Yields; Bullish Outlook for Grains, Oilseeds; Bearish Cattle Report
The CBOT traded an odd day on Friday with wheat futures selling off sharply despite private estimates of a Kansas HRW crop nearly 10 Mbu below USDA’s...
Embarrassing Distortions; Biotech Bureaucrat Hurdles; TTC Diversion
Embarrassing Distortions Populists in the U.S. Congress are once again going after Big Ag, and as usual with faulty figures. Some are calling on the Federa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Cattle on Feed: Fourth Consecutive Monthly Record
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 12 million, 2 percent above May 2021, and the highest...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.7875/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.6875/bushel, down $0.3175 from yesterday's close...
Oilseeds Highlights – Forecast is Momentum
Soybeans added almost 59 cents/bushel this week and closed back above $17/bushel indicating demand remains strong even as carryover is predicted to rise. S...
Export Sales
Export Sales for May 6-12, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 8,500 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 40 percent from the previou...
Market Commentary – Unsettled but Not Rudderless
Commodity traders should be grateful they are not equity traders. The broader economy presents less certainty than agricultural balance sheets that will ta...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 May at 101.5 perc...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.8325/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $12.005/bushel, down $0.3025 from yesterday's close.&...
Conglomerate Vision; Policy Confusion
Conglomerate Vision Agribusinesses are paying attention. They along with oil companies are being blamed for inflation via gouging. There is an effort to ra...
Market Commentary: Inflation Sparks Macro Market and CBOT Selloff, N. Kansas Wheat Yields at 39.5 BPA
The CBOT was sharply lower for the day with corn and soyoil breaking technical support levels while soybeans pulled back but maintained their recent tradin...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health Case Count Falls Further, Economic Impact Worsens The trailing seven-day average for new COVID-19 cases and related deaths has continued to d...
Misdiagnosed; Potemkin Trade Policy
Misdiagnosed U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said this week that, “Higher food and energy prices are having stagflationary effects, namely depre...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.815/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $12.3075/bushel, down $0.4675 from yesterday's close...
Wheat Weighs on Other Crops
Global food security is supposed to be broadly at risk but acute tightness in grain stocks is more limited to wheat. Global rice stocks are about the same...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 May 2022 Most businesses were closed from 1-9 May as Russians celebrated Soviet holidays. Trade has now resumed and there is a...
Market Commentary: Wheat Scores New Highs; Soybeans Rally on China Buying Rumors; Cattle Fall on Weak Cash Trade
The CBOT traded a generally bullish day with wheat futures forging a classic bullish day on the charts. Wheat futures opened higher, traded sharply lower t...
$10 Billion in 2020 and 2021 Disaster Assistance to be Released
USDA announced yesterday the details of a $10 billion package of disaster loss crop payments passed by Congress last year; the plan passed in September (wh...
Hunger Remains a Distribution Problem
World leaders express great concern that the level of world food insecurity is worsening under the weight of the Russian war on Ukraine. Then there are the...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.0075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $12.775/bushel, up $0.3 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Multilateral is Dead; Long Live Plurilaterals; Rock and Hard Spot; Quote, Requote
Multilateral is Dead; Long Live Plurilaterals Former WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo said this week that the ability of the organization to achi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egyptian officials have requested exemption from India’s recent exp...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.07/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $12.67/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Limit-Up on India’s Export Ban; Corn Rallies on Brazilian Drought/Frost Risk
Over the weekend, India announced a ban on wheat exports following the massive heat waves that have severely hurt the country’s yields. Before the ba...
Friend-shoring Agriculture; Import Sensitivity
Friend-shoring Agriculture When the EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council (TTC) platform was launched last fall, there was no war in Ukraine, and there was...
Back to the States to Fill USDA Trade Undersecretary
President Biden has announced his intention to nominate Alexis Taylor as Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. Taylor has served as th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Amid controversy and conflicting opinions, the Argentine government authorized the planting and commercialization of transgenic (genetically modified...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Drought in Europe is becoming increasingly concerning with projections for EU wheat yields deteriorating. Areas of western Europe and t...
No 1970’s Analog
The U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to accomplish a so-called soft-landing of the economy back down to a low inflation, modest growth, low unemployment scen...
WASDE Soyoil
SOYOIL: USDA's outlook is for global oilseed production in 2022/23 to be 647.1 million tons, rising 50.3 million from last marketing year when drough...
WASDE Soymeal
SOYMEAL: USDA’s outlooks is for the U.S. soybean crush in 2022/23 to be 2.26 billion bushels, up 40 million from the 2021/22 forecast. Domestic...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: USDA’s outlook is that the U.S. soybean crop in 2022/23 will be at 4.64 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year. U.S. endi...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA’s outlook is that the U.S. corn crop will be 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3 percent from last year. The corn yield is projected at 1...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning...
Market Commentary: Paris, KC, Chicago Wheat Score New Highs; Soybeans Rally as China Buys
The CBOT was sharply higher in trade that continued the bullish reaction to Thursday’s WASDE report. All three wheat classes and new crop corn future...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.8125/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.775/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close...
Novel and Magnanimous; Time to Retire; Whole of Government Effort
Novel and Magnanimous Ukraine has 20 MMT of grain that need to be exported over the next three months before the next crop comes off the fields and needs a...
Dwindling Diesel Stocks, Increasing Demand
Add diesel fuel supplies to market anxieties over shortages and high prices. Diesel hit all-time record prices this week. Both gasoline and diesel rose sha...
Oilseeds Highlights: Their Inexorable Rise Continues
WASDE Key Points Everything in oilseeds world goes higher: Global oilseed production at 647 MMT (+8 percent). Global soymeal production (4.25 percent) and...
Market Commentary – USDA Joins the Running of the Bulls
Poor spring planting conditions forced USDA to throw its usual cautiousness to the wind as the May WASDE affirmed a bull market. The market firmed ahead of...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.915/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.7875/bushel, up $0.6575 from yesterday's close. ...
Size Informs Policy; Glyphosate Bias; Biden Trade Policy Deflation; Less is Better
Size Informs Policy The policy wonk contingency hoping to refocus the 2023 farm bill on small farms and growing fruits and vegetables should note where Pre...
Livestock Round Up: Meat, Livestock and Poultry Prices
Retail price inflation continues to be an unwieldy political problem for the Biden Administration – especially prices at the gas pump and grocery she...
Export Sales
Export Sales for April 29-May 5, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 14,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 88 percent fr...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Pre-WASDE Trade; Wheat Rallies on Too Dry/Too Wet Forecast; Inflation Drives Fund Buying
The CBOT was higher the day before the May WASDE with traders turning more bullish amid persistently challenging weather forecasts for the world’s ma...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.885/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.13/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. ...
Jurisdictional Mayhem; War and Farm Policy; War and Food Inflation
Jurisdictional Mayhem According to the Constitution, the U.S. Congress has the power to regulate trade among the several states, but it does not have the o...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health China Double Downs On Zero COVID-19 Strategy As with its public attitude toward Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s leadership...
Arbitraging Energy
Food prices have increased but not as much as energy costs. The latest CPI data shows food at home increased year-on-year in April by 10.8 percent, and by...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 May 2022 Russian grain traders have continued to decrease their bids in the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports which are now 100 perce...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy, KCBT Wheat Edge Higher; Soymeal Falls Below $400; MENA Needs Wheat
The CBOT posted a soft rebound on Tuesday with corn, KCBT wheat, and soybeans edging higher to end with small gains for the day. Funds were modest net buye...
Reprieve on Emissions Data; IPEF Launch; GMO Wheat
Reprieve on Emissions Data At the request of U.S. farm groups, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended the deadline for public comments o...
Food Safety Progress
Food safety lawyer Shawn Stevens points out that the incidence of food borne illnesses in the U.S. have been in decline. The number of incidents dropped du...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.7525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.9275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has begun to harvest trial plantings of GMO wheat that is expected...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Macro Market Meltdown; Live Cattle Post Turnaround
Macro markets melted down again on Monday as rising interest rates and inflation cause a sustained effort to reprice assets and their relative risk. Its im...
War/Market Equals Farm Bill Status Quo
Despite claims by U.S. Farm Bill critics like Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) that the American food system is “broken,” Congress will not r...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.72/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.9275/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close...
Canadian Rescue?
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization says 25 MMT of exportable grain are stuck in Ukraine and threatening global food security. Canadian Prime...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to move at a slow pace as producers are still focused on harvesting soybeans and the corn still has high mois...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukrainian President Zelenskiy called on the international community to end the Russian blockade of Ukraine’s export ports to avoi...
Market Commentary: Macro-market Weakness Pressures CBOT; Wheat, Corn Fundamentals Increasingly Bullish
The CBOT ended the week on a mixed note with the soy complex continuing its selloff with additional pressure from sharp losses in palm oil futures. Corn wa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseeds Highlights – Mother Nature Threatens
Production At a critical time when the world needs more oilseeds, humans and Mother Nature are conspiring against it. Excessively wet conditions have delay...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.8475/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.085/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Geopolitics Rule; Absence Notable; Frontline Agriculture
Geopolitics Rule During the Cold War, U.S. military planners trumped efforts by American agriculture to challenge the trade distorting effects of the EU&rs...
Market Commentary: Cinco de Mayo was about Wheat
Action elsewhere was modest but there was large volume in the wheat pits with a second day in a row of strong closes. Corn and soybeans gained a few pennie...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.975/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $11.065/bushel, up $0.3 from yesterday's close. ...
After the Cattle Market Hearings, Now What?
Last week’s hearings over proposed cattle market reforms took up nine hours across two days in both chambers of Congress. These hearings, like the si...
Food Policy Confusion; MC12 Wreck
Food Policy Confusion The White House announced that it will host the first conference on hunger, nutrition, and health in over 50 years in September. The...
Export Sales
Export Sales for April 22-28, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 118,800 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 53 percent...
Market Commentary: India Suggests, Then Denies, Wheat Export Limits; Exports Rally Soyoil; OK Wheat Yields Not OK
CBOT futures ended the day mostly higher with wheat leading the way amid rumors of an export ban from India and poor Oklahoma HRW yields. The wheat strengt...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Slow, Lockdown in Beijing Widens In an effort to avoid the chaotic nature of the lockdown in Shanghai and other maj...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.9425/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.765/bushel, up $0.31 from yesterday's close. ...
Issue Loser; Policy Leader; Data Leader
Issue Loser Frans Timmermans, the EU’s Executive Vice President, and lead cheerleader for the European Green Deal is insisting that there will be no...
Fertilizer Market Crisis
If global grain markets are in turmoil, the fertilizer market is going to precipitate a crisis. The International Food Policy Research Institute held a con...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 25-29 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2022 grain crop at 123 MMT mostly due to an additiona...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Quietly Lower as WASDE Looms
The CBOT was mostly lower in two-sided trade with the soy complexed leading the way lower. Soymeal fell to a three-month low as charts and technical condit...
Inflation Trumps Trade Policy; Grain but not Freedom; Non-cyclical Labor
Inflation Trumps Trade Policy USTR Katherine Tai threw in the towel this week and conceded that reducing tariffs on Chinese goods is among the Biden Admini...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.93/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.455/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
Wheat Predator to Protectionist
Back in January, U.S. wheat growers were demanding that USTR file a WTO case against India for exceeding its de minimis limit of subsidies capped at 10 per...
Eight State Plan for E15 Equivalent to Adding One Large Ethanol Mill
In April, the Biden Administration’s EPA announced that it would provide a temporary waiver for year-round E15 (see WPI’s article about the imm...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Much of the region is closed until 5 May due to post Ramadan Muslim holid...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.035/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.555/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Vegoils Crash on Export Ban Reality; U.S. Corn Planting Slowest Since 2013
The CBOT waivered near contract and all-time highs in various commodities on Monday with better weather forecasts in the U.S. offering pressure. Moreover,...
Ministry of Truth; Russia Upsets EU Ag Policy
Ministry of Truth The U.S. Supreme Court refused to hear a case involving the ag gag rule in the state of Kansas, effectively allowing surreptitious filmin...
Hunger by Policy
U.S. officials are headed to Kenya to resume free trade negotiations and while there they ought to talk about the source of Nairobi’s food insecurity...
Stagflation Driving Toward a Recession?
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Friday that Q1 2022 GDP dropped 1.4 percent and the Q4 2021 GDP was revised to 6.9 percent. Analyst&rsq...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine is claiming that Russian forces have stolen “several hundred thousand tonnes” of grain from Ukrainian areas occupie...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There are interesting dynamic’s with Argentina’s old crop wheat. The first is an escalation in demand, not only from Brazil but als...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Week Mixed Amid Bullish U.S., Brazilian Weather
Light volume trade, profit taking, and spread reversals led to a mixed CBOT on Friday. Wheat futures were sharply lower as showers across the Plains booste...
Loan Rates/Crop Insurance: Tools for Ukraine/Food Aid
The Administration is asking Congress for $33 billion to address food shortages caused by the war in Ukraine and to assist Ukraine. Of that total, $500 mil...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.135/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.5575/bushel, down $0.3 from yesterday's close. Ju...
Risky Trade; Reassessing China
Risky Trade How much Ukraine produces, and exports are critical questions for global agricultural markets. With its own Black Sea ports blocked, some grain...
Oilseed Highlights – Adaptations Continue
Indonesia put the turd in the punch bowl this week and caused vegetable oil futures to rocket to record highs. Its export embargo of palm oil is temporary...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.135/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.8575/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Mixed for Good Reasons
There was much to contemplate today and that was reflected in the unsettled nature of various contracts and the mixed finish. Leading wheat and soybean con...
Livestock Round-Up: Looking at Cattle Herd Indicators
The final numbers from livestock marketing for red meat production are in for 2021. Cash receipts are up 23 percent from 2020 to $101 billion. Cattle were...
Aid Dependency; New Trade Vision
Aid Dependency Many poorer nations are dependent of foreign aid, including food donations, but so are some agriculture groups. Because of the war in Ukrain...
Export Sales
Export Sales for April 15-21, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 32,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 65...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.1225/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.9125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: Vegoils Rally, Pull Soybeans Higher; Brazil Sees Driest April in 17 Years; Corn Firms on Export Rumors
U.S. farmers are being patient marketing old crop corn and soybean stocks amid ongoing weather concerns in the U.S. Cash soy crush margins are near record...
Unfair Bullfight; War Dissect
Unfair Bullfight A hearing yesterday by the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee over the marketing of cattle was less equal than it appeared. Legislation spo...
Cuba Pipedream
Proponents claim that Cuba’s agricultural imports from the U.S. could double this year to $500 million. They have increased by 72 percent in the firs...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Rise as Beijing Prepares for Lockdown After reaching a low of 25 novel coronavirus related deaths per day on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that the first 3.5 Mha of spring crops have been planted out of 53.6 M...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Wheat; Corn, Soy End Mixed Ahead of First Notice Day
The CBOT was mixed and primarily focused on the weather – both in the U.S. and Brazil – on Tuesday. The most recent Crop Progress report offere...
Cattle Market Hearings
The Senate Agriculture Committee today had a hearing on cattle markets. Tomorrow, the House Agriculture Committee will convene a hearing on the same topic...
Truth About Food Safety; Truth About Deforestation; War’s Impact
Truth About Food Safety FDA Commissioner Robert Califf is on Capitol Hill this week testifying on his agency’s reported inability to move forward on...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.015/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.95/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. ...
StatsCanada Surprises
StatsCanada released the results of its survey of farmers on their planting intentions this year. The survey was conducted during March and, given developm...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The end of Ramadan means that the Middle East and North Africa will be on...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed on Crop Progress, China’s COVID-19 Conundrum, and Indonesia’s Clarification
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with the soy complex trading sharply lower after Indonesia’s President clarified that the country’s palm oil expor...
Update and Outlook on HPAI
Following is an update on the impact and ongoing issues related to the outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Since the first detection in...
U.S. – China Rift; India’s Manipulations; Then and Now
U.S. – China Rift There is a split within Washington policy circles over the continuation of Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. Backing t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.98/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The pace of corn harvesting improved last week and with a 3.8 percent weekly progress, the total harvested area reached 23.2 percent of the...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed up 2 percent - cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head...
Market Commentary: Palm Oil Export Ban Create Soyoil High; Funds Sell Corn, Soybeans Despite Hot, Dry Brazilian Weather
The CFTC was mostly lower to end the week with funds emerging as profit-takers in corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat. The soyoil market scored a new contrac...
Cattle on Feed: Third Consecutive Monthly Record
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 12.1 million, 2 percent above April 2021, and the hig...
RECPie for Nothing; Let Them Eat Broccoli; Mickey D’s Push-back
RECPie for Nothing Philippines Trade Assistant Secretary Allan B. Gepty gave assurance that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and its...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.89/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.7525/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close...
Exploding Vegetable Oil
Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to impact agricultural commodity markets and especially vegetable oils. Sunoil hit a record price of $2,570/MT in R...
Market Commentary: Pause with Mixed Results
Wheat is headed for a haircut this week while soybeans remain in the catbird seat, but the sum of the day was a pause with some profit-taking. Chicago has...
Export Sales
Export Sales for April 8-14, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 26,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 73 percent from t...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 April at 100.3 pe...
Summary of Futures
May 22 Corn closed at $7.9925/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.765/bushel, down $0.21 from yesterday's close.&n...
WTO at the Firefight; Dairy = Lumber
WTO at the Firefight WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is headed to Washington ahead of the planned MC-12 meeting but she will not like what she fin...
Market Commentary: Firm Spreads Push Corn, Soy Higher; Wheat Falls on Rain in Forecast
The CBOT waivered on Wednesday with weakness continuing from Tuesday’s trade early in the day. Wheat futures weighed on other markets as better chanc...
Summary of Futures
Jul 22 Corn closed at $8.1/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.975/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...
Worker Centric Paradox; Hoarding Disorder; Bipolar Accelerant
Worker Centric Paradox The Biden Administration has called for a “worker centric” trade policy but USTR Katherine Tai is complaining about a de...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID-19 Case Count Up, Deaths Fall, Lockdowns Spread Since the end of March, the trailing seven-day average of novel coronavirus cases in Ch...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 April 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported expectations that spring crops will be planted on 81.3 Mha of land, an...
Market Commentary: Profits and a Breather
Commodity futures opened rather volatile, dancing around both sides of nowhere before settling down to a mixture of some profit-taking, and a breather base...
Milk Price Impact of Re-Making the Make Allowance
Yesterday, WPI reported on the forecast for dairy for 2022., noting that this month’s WASDE raised the all-milk price forecast for 2022 to a record h...
Dishonorable Food; Guantes Para Niños in Mexico; Build Back Never
Dishonorable Food Eddy Wax in Politico points out that Western agribusiness companies continue to operate in Russia despite the war on Ukraine. Ukrainian P...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reportedly considering buying wheat directly from s...
Market Commentary: Wheat Ratings Worsen; Corn Soyoil Hit New Highs; Ethanol Run Rates Fall on Railcar Tightness
The CBOT was sharply higher with continued dry weather in the southern Plains pushing wheat higher while corn scored new contract highs on fund buying and...
High Milk Prices and the Dairy Herd
This month’s WASDE raised the all-milk price forecast for 2022 to a record high at $25.80/cwt. That was an increase of $0.75/cwt from the March WASDE...