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Farm Bill Could Change PLC Reference Prices

Topics for consideration in the farm bill are starting to take shape. According to reports from Capitol Hill, one likely change in the 2023 farm bill will...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8375/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Egypt has reportedly secured a long-term contract with Germany to buy wheat from the European nation, though details on the agreement a...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Rains that have fallen so far in 2023 indicate a possible change in the South American weather pattern. They have been good in terms of quantity and r...

Pricier White Liquor

The three major global suppliers of sorghum are the U.S., Argentina, and Australia. China has been a critical market for U.S. sorghum in recent years but i...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  M...

USTR Downgraded; Lightweight Committee

USTR Downgraded The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative sits inside the Executive Office of the President. No different than other offices situated und...

Oilseed Highlights: Volatile Mood

The Market The trading week got started with the weather premium getting chopped down due to rains in Argentina. Those rains turned out to be good but not...

Market Commentary: Macro and Russians

After a brutal Monday, futures have been clawing back gains the past few days. Trading on Thursday was helped along by a U.S. Q4 2022 GDP number that pleas...

Dirty Deal; Standards Battle

Dirty Deal During the early days of negotiating the Uruguay Round, industry leaders fretted that trade liberalization aspirations would be thwarted by prot...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for January 13-19, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 500,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 6 percent from the previous wee...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.825/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. ...

Livestock Roundup: Broiler Outlook

Preliminary December broiler production was 3.8 billion pounds, which would bring 2022 annual production to 46.2 billion pounds. That is 103 percent of 202...

Foreign Desk at State; IRA Confusion; Grain is Value-added Water

Foreign Desk at State Under Secretary Jose Fernandez has proved that an American desk is needed at the State Department. Speaking at the Center for Strateg...

Battle for Acres

S&P Global is the first private firm to issue an acreage planted forecast following USDA’s prediction for the upcoming campaign, but it will not...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&...

China In-Country Analysis

Cultural The Year of the Rabbit Arrives The Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations began on Saturday with festive New Year’s Eve gatherings. Sunday mark...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 16 - 20 January 2023    Grain prices remained relatively stable and are most likely to remain stable in the near term. The...

China Dairy Hope

Global dairy trade, which had been growing at a compound annual rate of 4.7 percent has slowed over the past couple of years. A primary reason has been Chi...

Policy Shorts

Mexico Shrug U.S. trade officials meeting with their Mexican counterparts raised "grave concerns" over AMLO’s agricultural biotechnology policies and...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.77/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.345/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. ...

Anticipating GDP Release

GDP for Q4 2022 will come out on Thursday of this week; the consensus expectations is for 2.5 percent growth. But the question is what lies ahead for 2023?...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkish authorities have decided, in their infinite wisdom, to ban the im...

Market Commentary: South American Rains Create CBOT Selling Flood

The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain, but this week it’s falling on Argentina and causing a flood of CBOT sell orders. Corn, wheat, and the so...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.6625/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.2/bushel, down $0.215 from yesterday's close. ...

Cure for High Prices

Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to C...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Recent swings in temperatures across the EU could leave winter crops weakened and more vulnerable to damage. EU winter crops have escap...

Debt Ceiling Showdown in Congress This Week

As Congress returns this week, negotiating over the debt limit will be at the top of the to-do list. Coupling spending cuts with a debt limit increase was...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Wheat continues to be scarce in general across Latin America, but especially in Argentina. It is strange to see Argentina’s export volumes prac...

Cattle on Feed

Jan 1 U.S. Cattle on Feed down 3 percent from 2022  Dec Placements in feedlots totaled 1.80 million head, 8 percent below 2021 Dec Marketings of fed c...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7625/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.415/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Cattle on Feed: Contraction

USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed on feedlots with 1,000 head capacity or more on 1 January...

Lake Geneva; Farm Bill/China

Lake Geneva Switzerland officially notified the WTO today that it will formally agree to the agreement on fisheries subsidies. WTO Director General Ngozi O...

Oilseed Highlights – Soft Side of the Market

The market movers this week included primarily the chances for moderate to abundant rainfall in Argentina, macro concerns about economic growth, and the im...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for Jan. 6-12, 2023   Wheat:  Net sales of 473,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the pre...

Market Commentary: Risk Off

This was not so much a day of trade based on commitment but on ambivalence. Volume was modest at best, except in Feeder Cattle. Corn, soybeans, and wheat t...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.345/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Industrial Policy is Back; Interest Rate Impacts

Industrial Policy is Back At Davos, USTR Kathrine Tai pitched her “worker-centric” trade policy while other American representatives defended n...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 January at 96.8 p...

Market Commentary: Rains in Argentina’s Forecast Pressure CBOT

The CBOT started the day on a strong note and tried to capitalize on Tuesday’s strength but faltered and ended lower after updated weather models sho...

Sucker Punch Instead of a Gut Blow

Former WTO spokesperson Keith Rockwell criticizes the Biden Administration for pursuing partnerships that lack the key word “trade.” President...

Killing the Golden Goose II

Big Ag continues to be the focus of attacks by populists who nostalgically, though without substantiation, insist that food from small and local is environ...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Prices Up Nearly 5 Percent In December For the ninth straight month, the average cost of food across various categories climbed. It was...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8125/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.425/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&n...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 9 - 13 January 2023    The Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) has adjusted preliminary crop size numbers for the 2022 cro...

Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off Early Weakness to Post a Bullish Day

The CBOT started Tuesday with bearish pressure that impacted corn, soybeans, and wheat alike. The day’s trade didn’t end there, however, and th...

Ag as Energy Future

Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, co...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8525/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...

New House Agriculture Committee Republicans Named

The new members of the Republican majority of the House Agriculture Committee have been named; the Democrat members have not yet been assigned. The Republi...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran reduced its import duty on oilseeds, including soybeans, from 9 to 1...

Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday

The CBOT/CME markets will be closed Monday, 16 January 2023 in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. WPI’s offices will be closed as well...

Dairy’s Remarkable Growth Forecast to Continue

The year 2022 set a record for milk prices at $25.50/cwt, beating the 2014 record of $24.00/cwt. High prices will keep cows in production – and eatin...

Market Access to the Fore

The Biden Administration has thus far resisted demands by industry and agriculture to include market access in its trade policy vehicles such as the Indo-P...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.75/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4375/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

Oilseed Highlights – Big Reports Week

The Market The most influential event of the week was USDA’s release of its January WASDE, plus stocks reports. The soy complex was trading in the gr...

WASDE Soybeans

SOYBEANS: USDA reduced U.S. soybean production by 69 million bushels to 4.276 billion bushels. Reductions were in Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, and Kansas.&...

WASDE Corn

CORN:  USDA reduced U.S. corn production to 13.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is more than offset by a 1.6 million acre...

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks.  The season-average farm price is...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for Dec 30, 2022 – Jan 5, 2023   Wheat:  Net sales of 90,800 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 93 perc...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.71/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4275/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Surprise Information Bonanza!

USDA unloaded a gigabyte of data today and a bunch of it was not as expected. The pre-report temperature was bearish. Corn, winter wheats, and livestock we...

Policy Shorts

Trade Programs Renewal: Trade promoting Republicans want to use their new majority in the U.S. House to push through renewal of the Generalized Systems of...

Livestock Roundup: 2022 Meat Prices and 2023 Livestock Prices

USDA released its monthly meat price spreads today, which show the producer, packer and retailer share of the retail value of beef and pork. As expected, b...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Pork Prices Depressed as Market Still in Oversupply Market survey data from the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs (MARA) and other gover...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.56/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Mar 2...

Market Commentary: CBOT Steady/Higher Ahead of WASDE; Hog Selloff Intensifies

Wednesday’s CBOT trade was almost entirely focused on positioning for the January WASDE that will be released at noon Thursday. For corn and soybeans...

Nudging Consumption; USMCA as Model; With Us or Against Us

Nudging Consumption Some in Europe are pushing to waive the VAT tax on fruits and vegetables to improve their consumption. There is also talk of increased...

Less Traded Category

The news headline says that the Filipino government will import 21,060 MT of onions to fill a supply shortfall until the next domestic harvest in February...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2 - 6 January 2023    With a historic grain crop and the upcoming Russian Orthodox Christmas holidays, traders seem to hav...

Setting Some Farm Bill Issues

We’re nearing the middle of January which means all the farm and commodity groups will be holding their annual meetings, and in a farm bill year that...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.55/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.31/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...

Reshuffling the Wheat Suppliers

One of the larger shifts in global grain markets in recent years has been the result of the ascendency of the Black Sea region. However, there has also bee...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Malta’s Kordin Grain Terminal, in Valetta port, had a minor silo fi...

Market Commentary: Grains Lower in pre-WASDE Trade; Livestock Markets Rally

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with funds remaining in a defensive mood heading into the January WASDE and Grain Stocks reports. The USDA will...

Farm Bill Trouble; Aggie Gets Ways & Means

Farm Bill Trouble The conservative Freedom Caucus flexed its muscle in holding up the election of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California) in becoming Speaker of...

No Inflation Hedge

Former trader and now academic Ivo Sarjanovic has a new book entitled, “Commodities as an Asset Class.” He was inspired to write on the topic o...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.5275/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.415/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&n...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina has ended with an estimated production of 11.5-12.5 MMT. This is no surprise to the market and compares with a 22 MMT...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Germany’s winter wheat area is estimated at 2.8 Mha for 2023/24, down 1.9 percent. Winter barley was seeded across 1.3 Mha this y...

Red Meat Exports: Gains for Pork, Headwinds for Beef

Yesterday’s export report showed big sales for 2023 delivery totaling 73,600 MT.  Mexico continued as the top market with sales of 31,000 MT (42...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.54/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.435/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Oilseed Highlights – New Year, Same Arguments

The Market The March soybean contract ended 2022 at $15.24/bushel, the fourth yearly rise in soybean values. As this first week of trading in 2023 comes to...

Bullish Market but Farm Bill?

In response to WPI's last home page survey asking the state of agricultural commodity markets in 2023, there was very little debate. An overwhelming majori...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for Dec 23-29, 2022   Wheat:  Net sales of 47,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for China (65,000 MT s...

Market Commentary: Mixed and Confused

Today was another mixed but generally bearish trading day in the New Year. Nothing has changed from the fundamentals of December when values generally move...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.5275/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4675/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Livestock Roundup: Beef and Cattle Prices Starting Year Strong

Christmas and New Year’s Day fell on a weekend this year, and a deep freeze fell on much of the country over the holidays, all of it impacting the sl...

China In-Country Analysis

Public Health Rising COVID-19 Related Death Toll Dampens New Year’s Outlook Although official figures appear to understate the reality of COVID on th...

Mexico Already Won; Pakistan Pays the Price; Hollow Funding

Mexico Already Won Opponents of Big Ag are arguing that Mexico’s proposed delay of a GMO corn ban, plus its focus on corn for food use and not feed m...

Market Commentary: Recession Forecasts, Fund Selling Sink Ag Futures

Except for cattle futures, the CBOT and CME ag markets were all lower on Wednesday as bearishness remains the prevailing sentiment. Commodity markets recei...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.5375/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.455/bushel, down $0.3 from yesterday's close.&nb...

China Strike First; Bad Boy of Africa; Made in Failure

China Strikes First The Biden Administration’s light-handed approach to trade is starting to reveal its cost. Ecuador has just announced completing a...

Holes in Food Security

The population in Africa is projected to nearly double from 1.34 billion in 2020 to 2.5 billion by 2050. By contrast, the rest of the world’s populat...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19 - 23 December 2022    Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced a record year-end grain production of 159.5 MMT in bunk...

Market Commentary: CBOT Sags to Start New Year; Late-2022 Rallies Fade

The CBOT and CME markets were almost unanimously lower to start 2023 with demand – either from exports or domestic consumption – being a primar...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Trade Hope Springs Eternal

The Biden Administration’s “trade lite” agenda will pick up steam in 2023 as it seeks to bring to fruition rules-based changes via its In...

New Final WOTUS Rule May Not be Final

In November 2021, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Army Corps of Engineers announced they’d come up with a proposed revision fo...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.705/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.755/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Show us the Meat

Through a combination of cyclical factors and disease, 2023 promises to be a year with less meat. The poultry industry has had HAPI outbreaks at 492 commer...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION On 31 December, Turkey’s official Gazette published details of the...

Happy New Year from WPI

The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forw...

Market Commentary: Bullish End-of-Year Action in Soy Complex, Wheat

The CBOT posted another day of surprising between-holiday trade with multiple markets seeing above-average volume and scoring important technical developme...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.785/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.92/bushel, up $0.18 from yesterday's close.  M...

Export Sales

Export Sales Commitments and Shipments for Dec 16-22, 2022  Wheat:  Net sales of 478,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were primarily for Japan...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Year-end Rally

The market started a little slow, with corn trading lower, while soybeans and SRW were only modestly higher. And why should they act any differently? The...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.855/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.  M...

Notable Day in Supposed Slack Week

The week between Christmas and New Year’s Day is supposed to be reserved for binge watching movies. However, this first trading day after the three-d...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.745/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed down 3 Percent from December 1, 2021 Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.93 million head, 2 percent below 2021.  Mark...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.6625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.76/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. ...

Winter Storm Rally and Bullish Livestock Reports

Normally, trading on the day before a three-day holiday weekend is a lackluster affair, but 2022 is an exception:  The winter storm and bitter cold w...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Holiday Schedule

Financial markets will be closed on Monday, December 26, as part of the Christmas holiday. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report on Monday...

Oilseed Highlights – Lots of Moving Parts

The Market Rains in South America provided overall downward pressure in oilseeds this week. At the same time, there is damage that has been done as the Bue...

Spinning the WTO Wheels

India this week blocked a perfunctory motion at the WTO to move surplus WTO funds from 2021 into 2023. All other WTO members agreed that the funds could be...

What is the Growing Climate Solutions Act?

On Tuesday, WPI reported that the omnibus appropriations bill included the Growing Climate Solutions Act, prior to farm bill consideration. The legislation...

Export Sales

  Export Sales for Dec 9-15, 2022 Wheat:  Net sales of 334,200 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for unknown destinations (86,000 MT), Jap...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.6225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&...

Pre-Holiday Trading

Today was more like what is expected just before a major holiday. Trading volume was generally lower for everything but the live cattle contract. February...

Livestock Roundup: COF and Hogs and Pigs

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 December at 97 pe...

Consumer Confidence, Blizzard Worries Lift Macro Markets and CBOT

It was a rare day in the markets as the major CBOT, CME, and macroeconomic markets all posted strong gains for the day. However, the reasons for bullishnes...

China In-Country Analysis

Public Health China Lifts Restrictions, COVID Case Counts Soar The fears of the central government about the near-term impact of shifting away from its zer...

ANZ Split; Labor Key to PA

Anz Split The Australia-New Zealand relationship is very tight, with both nations freely trading with one another and generally sharing positions on foreig...

Let Us Say There’s a Problem

Grain and livestock products are the primary delivery sources for dietary calories, yet the accompaniment of a salad provides additional micronutrients and...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.6225/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.6775/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12 – 16 December 2022    Russian grain markets remain bearish with many factors putting pressure on the market inclu...

Market Commentary: Wheat Futures Ignore Winter Storm; Soy Complex Rallies Again

The CBOT is starting to show its typical pre-holiday quieting of trade and volatility but is not without a few surprises. The soy complex was the upside le...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.52/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.505/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  J...

Notable Policy Shorts

Defining National Security: U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said the WTO “is getting itself on very, very thin ice” by ruling that Trum...

Yams versus Sweet Potatoes

Yams and sweet potatoes are easily confused and yet they are very different crops, including in global trade. Yams are starchier are more like potatoes, wh...

Agreement on Omnibus Appropriations Bill Reached

Yesterday, we noted that Congress must pass an omnibus appropriations bill by Friday to keep the government open, and that the Senate was in the driver&rsq...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has received a $3 billion 46-month loan from the IMF with extra sup...

SUR without Mirror Clause; Mexico GM Corn and 2023 Outlook

SUR without Mirror Clause The EU decided this past weekend to exempt agriculture from its revised Emmissions Trading Scheme, for now, but is under increasi...

Weighing What to Plant

The battle for acres between soybeans and corn is well known but other crops are also considered by producers. For the top three cereal grain crops, there...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.4725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.485/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&n...

House Republican Study Committee Budget and Farm Bill Plans

Congress is working on an omnibus appropriations bill to keep the government open, facing a funding deadline of 23 December following the passage of a a sh...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The Argentine harvest keeps moving at a good pace and the national average yield is increasing as combines enter areas in the center and south of Bue...

FTC Updating “Green Guides” for Labeling

Food product label claims are an important aspect of food product marketing, and a standard that is constantly evolving. In the early 1990s, nutrition was...

End of Exporting; Importing is Special; Alley-way Pet Transfers

End of Exporting Humans have traded food for millennia, from the luxuries of the spice trade and the Silk Road to wheat bartering in the Middle East/North...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.53/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.535/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Oilseed Highlights – Celebrity Crop

The Market Soybeans hit a three-month peak last week, but profits were taken Monday and after that they could not fully recover. The January contract lost...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.535/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5725/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close.  J...

Market Commentary: Macro Slam

Last half December is generally quiet and rangebound in the markets as the B Team is instructed to ride out the holidays in a caution mode. Except for the...

Livestock Roundup: Hog and Pork Market

As we reported on Tuesday, the December WASDE reduced pork production slightly for 2022 based on lighter carcass weights, which were down about a pound fro...

War of Words; Wasted Breath; Power of Trade Agreements

War of Words The U.S. and China never miss a chance to criticize the other in international fora and that includes meetings in Geneva. At the WTO’s 1...

Export Sales

Export Sales for Dec 2-8, 2022   Wheat: Net sales of 469,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for unknown destinations (164,000 MT), Sout...

TPA Needed; Mirror Clauses; Digital Farming

TPA Needed The Biden Administration initially placed U.S. trade policy initiatives on ice pending what it described as building back better U.S. economic c...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.505/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4925/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 5 - 9 December 2022    Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia is revamping its positions on grains and oilseeds market...

Planting the Solution to High Food Prices

U.S. President Joe Biden's departing economic adviser, Brian Deese, said this morning that food prices are still too high and that it remains an area where...

WASDE Livestock Forecast and CPI

The Word Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report marginally increased the forecast for total red meat and broiler production by 0.1 percent...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.535/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5075/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Remodeling U.S.-Africa Relationship

Today kicks off the Biden White House hosting leaders from Africa for the U.S.-Africa Leaders’ Summit. Officials from the region want an extension of...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MENA region grain importers have been assured by Ukraine shippers that th...

Counter-intuitive; Food Trade Rebound

Counter-intuitive Short-sellers are disliked by most, including corporate executives, politicians and regulators. Yet, research data shows that they contri...

Inflation and the Value of the U.S. Dollar

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data tomorrow. The pre-report expectation is for an annual rate of 7.3 percent (...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.54/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5475/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close.  Ja...

Latin American Political Stability

Political instability should be a threat to food security, though that does not appear to be the case in Latin America. The UN Food and Agriculture Organiz...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Dry weather and a sweltering heat wave allowed for a rapid advance of the wheat harvest and an even earlier harvest date in the southern part of the...

WASDE Soybeans

Domestics U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23 are unchanged from last month.  USDA explained that due to their review of EPA's recent...

WASDE Corn

U.S. domestic corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels due to slow sales.  As a result, corn ending stocks are raised 75 million bushels.  The...

WASDE Wheat

U.S. domestic wheat data is unchanged from last month. The global wheat supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million on reduced production for...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Oilseed Highlights – Shake it Up

The Market Soybeans were in the green on Friday morning until USDA released its bearish December WASDE report. Traders had expected U.S. carryover stocks t...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.44/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.3425/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...

Temporary E15 Waiver Made a Difference in 2022

Ethanol blending rates increased in 2022 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), especially during this summer. In April the Biden EPA is...

Market Commentary: A Tale of Tails

Wheat and corn continue to trade on one edge of the distribution while soybeans and soymeal chase the other side. The continuing trend is for declines in t...

Balancing Act; Mercosur Collapse

Balancing Act On the outskirts of the EU’s annual Outlook conference today, Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski stated that there is the ne...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.425/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4625/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&n...

Export Sales

Export Sales for Nov 25 - Dec 1, 2022   Wheat: Net sales of 189,900 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were primarily for China (65,000 MT), Iraq (50...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle Contract Library

Yesterday, USDA released the regulation for the Cattle Contract Library pilot program, a provision that was included in the 2022 appropriations bill which...

Monoculture Phobia

We are idiots. There is a certain elegance to New Age agriculture. Miles and miles of fields dedicated to either corn or soybeans are so vainly contrived b...

China In-Country Analysis

Public Health New COVID-19 Cases Fall By A Third, Beijing Lifts Restrictions The sharp run-up in new coronavirus cases in November have quickly fallen at t...

Bright Side is Meat Trade

Rabobank says it sees an animal protein production slowdown in 2023, led by beef since it is the downside of the U.S. cattle cycle, but continued expansion...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.4125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.495/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 28 Novermber – 2 December 2022 With the UN humanitarian corridor back in place, Russia is reportedly procrastinating with insp...

2023 Farm Bill Dynamics; Deforestation versus CO2

2023 Farm Bill Dynamics A Farm Foundation session today perusing the dynamics of writing the 2023 Farm Bill had several key takeaways: Political Dynamic: T...

Japan’s Beef Imports

The U.S. and Japan struck an initial agreement in 1988 that reduced the barrier to imports of American beef. This year the two countries signed an updated...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.3725/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.29/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan recently received very good rainfalls which the Ag Ministry says b...

Market Commentary: CBOT Selloff Intensifies; Aussie Wheat Crop Gets Bigger

Monday offered little reprieve from the CBOT’s recent trends with the selloffs in soyoil and wheat intensifying. Funds were net sellers in both marke...

TTC Yes, IRA No; Industrial Policy Caution; IPEF to Senate

TTC Yes, IRA No Despite French President Emmanuel Macron’s high profile State Dinner with President Joe Biden last week, modifying the Inflation Redu...

USA Lost Benefits of CPTPP

The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership entered into force in 2019 without the U.S. as a member. Although four years of trade data plus...

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.405/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.39/bushel, down $0.22 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Another Look at the RVOs for Ethanol

On Friday 2 December, WPI broke down the proposed 2023 - 2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The rule was 692 pages...

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