Russia is complaining that Ukraine’s grain exports are not going to poor countries, undermining the intent of the grain corridor agreement. There is...
Articles
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: August–2 September 2022 Grain markets were volatile. While global markets remain bullish, Russian traders are still speculatin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.76/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.17/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. No...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Dry Weather; Argentine “Soy Dollar” Pressures Soy Complex
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with a weekend of dry weather offering support to the corn market and sparking a 10-cent rally in that commodity. Conv...
Political Fallout; Unions and Productivity
Political Fallout USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said yesterday, “Candidly, our view — and I’ve expressed this to EU officials — our vi...
Alfalfa's Disappointment
In 2012, global trade in alfalfa hit 1.7 MMT and there was great optimism that it would continue to grow as a valuable forage crop. In fact, it hit the mil...
Reading the Economic Tea Leaves
There has been some underlying positive economic news starting to emerge from the August data, though given the unprecedented nature of the economic disrup...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Sri Lanka’s Minister of Trade says there is no reason for wheat flo...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 5 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. As a result, we will not upda...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Light Volume Before Long Weekend; Cattle Rally on Post-Holiday Demand Outlook
The CBOT bounced higher heading into the long, holiday weekend, but trading volume was anemic as many traders apparently decided to head home for a four-da...
Oilseeds Highlights: Becoming More Competitive
Futures Market While today’s trading session was a bit of a recovery it still left the week with overall declines for soybeans and soy products. A lo...
Farm Bill: 2023 or 2024?
Congress will return to session after the August recess in the coming weeks, the Senate next week and the House the following week. They will be in session...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.6575/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.11/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Bearish Pressures
The markets opened lower and then turned deeper red as the session wore on. Much of the pressure was from outside markets, plus caution ahead of the three-...
Livestock Round Up: New Beef Packing Capacity Announced
So far this month, two notable announcements were made about new beef packing capacity. These come after much of 2020 saw criticism about the nature of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.58/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.9425/bushel, down $0.3725 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower on Economic Worries while Wheat Makes Seasonal Gains
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures continuing their slow rally while soybeans and soymeal continue to fall, despite fresh soybean export sa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.705/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.315/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Remain Firm as Fall Holidays Near China’s domestic hog prices continued to rally here in the second half of August. The nat...
Treasure Your Agribusiness
In their report, “China's Import Potential for Beef, Corn, Pork, and Wheat,” Economic Research Service analysts correctly note that the Middle...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 August 2022 Russia’s harvest continues with grain production, as of 25 August, at 78.9 MMT which is up 24.8 percent from...
Eggs and Corn
Poultry and poultry products are among the most efficient converters of grain into animal protein products. The feed conversion ratio (FCR) for eggs at 2/1...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat End Lower in Turnaround Tuesday; Livestock Futures Rally on Technical Buying
After starting the week on a high note, the CBOT posted a “turnaround Tuesday” with corn and wheat giving back much of Monday’s gains. Th...
Broiler Meat Trying to Find a Balance
Broiler production struggled for much of the year to keep up with increased demand, especially the demand created by retail inflation and more substitution...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.7725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.2025/bushel, down $0.225 from yesterday's close...
Separation of Church and State; Scholz Encourages Trump
Separation of Church and State USDA announced a $300 million program to assist farmers in certifying organic. The agency notes that for years, organic has...
Wheat to Remain Tight
The current tight global wheat market is a dynamic that is here to stay. For the most recent five years, global wheat consumption has increased by 7 percen...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh semi-official reports say that a wheat import agreement for 50...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.4275/bushel, up $0.375 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Yield Concerns; Wheat Surges 30 Cents on Ukrainian Offensive
CBOT grain markets were higher to start the week while the soy complex drifted lower amid little fresh news and a lack of international buying interest. Co...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is finally finished and, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, total production reached 52 MMT, down 3 MMT from...
Will California’s Gasoline Motor Ban Eliminate One Third of National Gas and Ethanol Demand?
Last week, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) finalized a rule that will outlaw the sale of gas-fueled cars by 2035. The plan is phased in requiring...
Food for the Illiterate; Contract Sanctity for Energy
Food for the Illiterate Deceptive food marketing is rampant because it is successful. However, the most belittling approach is the little words campaign. F...
Real Climate Impact
Climate change is being blamed for drought limited grain crops this year, but tree nuts are a better example. Weather has caused volatility in grain market...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Week on High Note; ProFarmer Yields Revive Bullish Corn Story
The CBOT rallied to end the week with strong commercial buying early in the day that gave way to some fund buying in expectation of ProFarmer’s yield...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights - On a Roll
Crop Progress USDA’s Crop Progress report lowered the share of soybeans in the combined Good/Excellent category by one point to 57 percent, but that...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.6425/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.0525/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close.&nb...
A View of Monetary Policy and the Economy from Jackson Hole
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his address to the Federal Reserve’s annual policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It was short...
Market Commentary: Backtracking
After a run up in recent days over drought in the U.S., bad news from a major crop tour, plus drought in Europe and China, there was profit taking today as...
Livestock Round Up: U.S. and Canada Livestock Inventory
Details of the combined U.S. and Canadian cattle and swine herds were released yesterday. The cattle data is based on the semi-annual inventory as of 1 Jul...
Government Money is Complicated
President Joe Biden is handing out what could be $600 billion in student loan forgiveness just before an election. Critics argue about its fairness, and it...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.5/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.89/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.5725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.1325/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Pare Gains While Waiting for Iowa, Illinois Yield Estimates
CBOT corn and wheat gave back most or all of Tuesday’s gains as the latest weather forecasts offer better chances of rain and cooler weather heading...
Drought and Rice
Although several crops are at risk due to the drought in southern China, rice is said to be the most at risk. This is because almost half the country&rsquo...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock New Market Reports Reveal Interesting Trends in the Hog Sector The most recent data release from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (M...
Nutrition Policy Dreams
Next month is the White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition and Health and there are a lot of nutrition problems in America to solve. The country is fat,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 15-19 August 2022 Russia’s harvest continues. As of 11 August, grain production showed 75.5 MMT harvested, which is up...
Market Commentary: Crop Tour Yields Send Corn Sharply Higher; Soybeans, Wheat Follow
Tuesday’s CBOT trade was all about declining crop conditions and crop tour yield estimates. Both were supportive factors, which sent corn 4+ percent...
China to Keep Buying
Food self-sufficiency is China’s policy goal but Anna Czenthe with the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies points o...
Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Respond to Dropping of CVD/AD Case
As the 2022 harvest approaches, farmers are already making plans for the 2023 crop with an outlook toward more potential volatility, especially on margins...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Libya imports about 90 percent of its grain needs every year with total i...
Ag Ahead of Other Merchandise
The OECD reported that Q2 2022 global merchandise trade “slowed markedly” with exports and imports up 2.1 percent and 2.6 percent, respectiveyl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Higher as Stocks Fall Ahead of Fed Meeting
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with corn and soybeans finding continued support from their pricing strength uncovered at the end of last week. Bu...
Killing the Golden Goose; Pandering False Narratives
Killing the Golden Goose USTR Katherine Tai has been scoring victories against Mexico’s AMLO when it comes to organized labor issues under the USMCA,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.29/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.8825/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. ...
Inflation Reduction Act Agricultural Provisions
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), also officially known as the Budget Reconciliation bill and unofficially as the mini-Build Back Better bill, has been pa...
Ignoring Half the Market
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack told Iowa corn farmers last week that, “I pointed out to the President (AMLO in Mexico) that he’s also deeply concer...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The old crop wheat market remained quiet last week. On the sell-side, the government’s allowed export quota seems to be practically committed a...
Cattle on Feed
USDA reported U.S. Cattle on Feed was 1 percent above year ago – for a totaled of 11.2 million head on August 1, 2022. Placements in feedlots d...
Market Commentary – Lower for the Week
Modest volumes were traded today, except HRW and Lean Hogs where there was some added play. For the week overall, the bears were in charge with weather and...
Cattle on Feed: July Placements Up, Marketings Down
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 11.2 million, 101 percent above August 2021, and in l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.2325/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.71/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. N...
Oilseeds Highlights – Larger Supplies
Prices Soybeans and coproducts futures prices closed out this week with lower prices: November Soybeans: -50.25 cents to end at 1404/bushel December Soymea...
Market Commentary: Wheat Down Again; Rest Rangebound
Weather and Ukraine remain bearish factors in agricultural markets. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited Ukraine today and highlighted that 21 shi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1575/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.49/bushel, down $0.315 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Discriminatory Trade to Hit Ag; High Standard Redefined
Discriminatory Trade to Hit Ag The Inflation Reduction Act increases taxes and spending but also invites retaliation against U.S. agricultural exports. Agr...
Export Sales
Export Sales for August 5-11, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 207,200 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were down 42 percent from the previous...
Livestock Round Up: COF Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 August at 100.8 p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.12/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.805/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Bad Day for Wheat
It was a somewhat volatile open but there was one certainty – wheat was going down. Joined by soyoil. Lower wheat weighed on corn, which hung on for...
Western Currency Dominance
Western sanctions have bolstered interest by China and Russia in creating a third reserve currency to challenge the dollar and the euro. There is discussio...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Rising Feed Costs and Hot Temperatures Force Some to Sell Hogs Here in August average feedstuff prices have continued to climb as a result of hig...
Russian Wheat Price Moves Lower
The consultancy Sovecon this week increased its estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 94.7 MMT. That is 7.6 percent more than USDA's guess at 88 MMT and if...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 August 2022 The harvest in Russia continues. Some areas in the south are entering the final stage and producing a record crop...
Market Commentary: The Good and the Bad
Yesterday’s steep losses in the futures market was followed by a lower close overnight that fed today’s narrative for yet still more declines i...
Pivot to Latin America
Washington made a famous “pivot to Asia” in 2012 under the Obama Administration. The rise of China and a realization that 60 percent of the wor...
COVID and Inflation Boosting Home Cooking
One of the significant impacts of the COVID pandemic was its effect on the balance of food demand between retail grocery and food service. This was particu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1025/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.86/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Ongoing Shortages
A French fry shortage is now expanding into a tomato shortage. The U.S. production of potatoes had been expanding even as the acres harvested declined due...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Lebanon officially rejected the first shipment of 26,000 MT of corn from...
Market Commentary: Rains, Cool Weather Pressures Corn, Soybeans; China Economic Data Sparks Worries
Despite Friday’s bullish, post-WASDE turnaround, the CBOT posted steep losses on Monday with corn and soybeans leading the way. Ag futures markets we...
Hay Supplies Will Continue to Pressure Cattle
With Friday’s WASDE and crop production reports there was much attention, rightfully so, on corn and soybean yields. However, an important metric pot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.2825/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&...
Agriculture Key in Presidential Races; Philosophical Fight Over Farm Spending
Agriculture Key in Presidential Races Current Kenyan Trade Minister Betty Maina this week said her country’s goals ‘haven’t changed&rsquo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued at full speed and reached 90 percent of the expected harvested area. Despite rains that fell last week, the w...
Meat Price Machinations
Meat prices have been distorted ever since COVID struck and the contortions continue despite the pandemic now being considered endemic. The pandemic itself...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: USDA forecast U.S. soybean production for 2022/23 at 4.53 billion bushels, up 26 million - higher yields more than offset lower harvested area; H...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA forecast U.S. corn production for 2022/23 at 14.4 billion bushels, down 146 million from the July projection. The season’s fir...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in wint...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Surprises and Questions Linger Going Forward
The CBOT was strictly focused on the August WASE in Friday’s trade. Price action before the USDA’s noon report featured quiet, weaker spread tr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.06/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
WASDE Forecasts Bullish Cattle and Hog Prices
Today’s Word Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report marginally increased its forecast for total red meat and poultry production comp...
Oilseeds Highlights – Reports, Oh My!
WASDE Surprise Oops, they did it again! The trade thought USDA would cut the soybean yield and instead the August WASDE increased it from July’s 51.5...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.2775/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.1075/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Pre-Report Positioning
In the last full trading day before the August WASDE is released, traders reaffirmed their belief that USDA will be marking yields lower on adverse weather...
WPI and Dow Jones’ Pre-WASDE S&D Estimates
In advance of USDA’s WASDE report that will be issued at Noon on Friday, 22 August, WPI has prepared the following set of tables. First, we detail ou...
Geopolitics and Trade; Labor’s Distortions
Geopolitics and Trade Post WWII trade policy by Washington was largely driven by Cold War tactics. Offer countries easier access to the big American consum...
Livestock Round Up: Energy Inflation Down, Food inflation Up in July
According to yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), overall consumer prices were unchanged in July...
Export Sales
Export Sales for July 29-August 4, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 359,200 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 44 percent from the previous week, but do...
Market Commentary: Hogs Post New Highs; Soy Complex Remains Volatile; Corn Pares Gains on Bearish WASDE Fears
The CBOT started the day sharply higher with support from outside markets, which rallied in celebration of the July inflation data. U.S. inflation slowed i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.185/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.9975/bushel, up $0.1825 from yesterday's close. ...
GMO Cross-Contamination; Africa’s Heartbeat – Kenya; Fertilizer Crunch; EFSA Animal Welfare
GMO Cross-Contamination The European Union Court of Justice affirmed Italy’s ban on planting MON810 corn despite its approval at the EU-level. Italy...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices See Biggest Surge in Nearly Two Years The lasting impact of the spring coronavirus lockdowns in major coastal cities coupled wit...
Princess Cotton
Global cotton production has declined, led by reductions in its two largest producers, China and India. Cotton is a heat tolerant, modest user of water, wh...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 August 2022 Russia’s harvest campaign continues. As of the first week of August, reports show 56.5 MMT of grains harvested...
Market Commentary: Declining Crop Conditions Spark CBOT Rally; WPI Corn and Soybean S&D Update
Yesterday’s Crop Conditions report featured worse-than-expected declines and sparked an overnight and early morning rally in CBOT futures Tuesday. Co...
U.S. Trade Strategy in Africa; USDA Changes Tune; Pick Your Poison
U.S. Trade Strategy in Africa U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a new Sub Saharan Africa strategy that focused on governance, security, rebo...
Cold, Hungry Winter
Europe is facing an energy crisis this coming winter and the food situation could be bad as well. This summer’s drought, reduced corn and sunflower o...
Proposed 2023 RVOs Coming in November
On 11 July, WPI reported that the 2023 required volume obligations (RVOs) were expected to come in mid-September; that was based on a proposed consent decr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.14/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.815/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA region barley buyers are looking more to French barley as supplies fr...
Market Commentary: Market Trending as Traders Position for WASDE
The CBOT was mixed in quiet trade to start the week with traders looking at the U.S. and EU weather forecasts for supply-side guidance ahead of Friday&rsqu...
Inflation Reduction Act Passes Senate
As WPI covered on 29 July, after many months of negotiating with Senator Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7975/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers took advantage of good weather conditions and corn with nearly ideal moisture levels and pushed the harvest an additional 7 percent last week...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Ukrainian government announced last week that, after a review of its new grain export corridors, it expects to export 3 MMT of grain mon...
No Rice Shortage
Food scarcity has been a frequent headline this year but with food inflation now dropping along with commodity prices, rice is an example of the scare that...
Market Commentary: Weather Outlook Supports Corn; USDA Confirms China Soy Buying; Cattle and Hogs Rally on Packer Demand
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat remaining under pressure from Ukraine’s slow but growing grain export program and from the large Russia...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Kill a Competitor; North American Lumber
Kill a Competitor Polling shows that former Brazilian President Luix Inácio Lula da Silva will beat the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, in the upcoming 2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Breaking Down the Data Behind Today’s Big Jobs Report
On Monday, WPI discussed the state of the economy (What is a Recession and Why Does it Matter if We’re In One?). As we wrote, “The whole situat...
Oilseeds Highlights – Lots to Churn
The soybean market has been jostled this week, always by weather anomalies, second by a crop progress report that showed, well progress, and third, controv...
Export Sales
Export Sales for July 22-28, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 249,900 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 55...
Market Commentary: Small Rebound
The trading session opened kind of sluggish, not even meeting the overnight closes. There was uncertainty in grains and oilseeds, though not in livestock s...
Taiwan FTA Foolery
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is doubling down on her support of Taiwan and attack on China. She said a free trade agreement (FTA) with Taiwan “mig...
Livestock Round Up: Will There be a Weather Market for Hogs?
Hog slaughter is running about 3.7 percent below last year, but live slaughter weights/carcass weights are up so the drop in pork production is only about...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0625/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: WCB Heat Pushes Corn Higher; Wheat, Soy Complex Lower on Fund Selling
CBOT futures largely continued their existing trends (i.e., lower) on Wednesday, with the exception that corn futures pushed higher and scored 2-cent gains...
Tai Not Lighthizer?; Cart Before the Horse
Tai Not Lighthizer? In one of the odder developments, Congressional Democrats are complaining about a lack of consultation by USTR over trade policy pursui...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Ag Ministry Pushes Hog Industry Toward Moderation The market exuberance regarding the nationwide recovery in hog prices that ran fr...
Food Inflation
U.S. gasoline prices are up 60 percent June to June and deservedly receive more than food price inflation. Year to date, consumer food inflation is at 6.7...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9625/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.6375/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25 – 29 July 2022 Russia’s harvesting campaign continues. The latest forecast for wheat production in Russia is 90 MMT...
Market Commentary: Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit Unnerves Grain Markets
U.S. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s surprise visit to Taiwan kept the CBOT on the defensive Tuesday amid a lack of other fundamental news. Chin...
Geopolitical Strife; ICE as Farm Bill; No Wharp Speed
Geopolitical Strife U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi surprised some after she went to Taiwan despite China’s warning that it would cause a military co...
Lowest Cost versus Export Share
The lowest cost producer is generally thought to have the advantage on market share, assuming all other resources are available. Indeed, Russian farmers ha...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9425/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7475/bushel, down $0.255 from yesterday's close.&...
USTR Ag Nominee Confirmation Hearing Sparks Enforcement versus Access
After 18 months of an empty desk for the Special Agricultural Trade negotiator at USTR (and one withdrawn nominee), the Senate Finance Committee held a con...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Lebanon is scheduled to receive the first shipment of wheat from Ukraine&...
Market Commentary: Markets Fall on Ukraine Grain Exports; U.S. Crop Conditions Exceed Expectations
The day’s big news – as WPI readers will likely already know – was that a vessel carrying Ukrainian corn left the Black Sea this morning...
What is a Recession and Why Does it Matter if We’re in One?
The news and political talk shows have been abuzz about whether the economy is in a recession, moreover, it has become political, with some Republican poli...
Risky Strategy; Factoid
Risky Strategy Some Congressional and Taiwanese officials are convinced that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan this week. The U.S. Navy has repo...
Minor Player, Minor Impact
World barley carryover stocks are forecast at 16.2 MMT in 2022/23, which would be the lowest since 1983/84 when the global population was 40 percent smalle...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0975/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Perhaps the most important news on the corn market comes from the discussions between Brazil and China to accelerate the Asian giant’s purchasin...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Perhaps the biggest news in the world – and especially Black Sea – grain markets is Monday’s shipment of 26 KMT of co...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.2/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0775/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Weekly Gains but Rough Day for Wheat
It was a week of big gains for corn and soybeans, and wheat as well, but today put a damper on it. Wheat, like corn and soybeans came out of the chute this...
Anti-Inflation Spending Bill
In a surprise move yesterday, Senator Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) signed off on a budget reconciliation bill with a number of tax provisions and more tha...
Oilseed Highlights – Adjustments Being Made
USA Soybeans A mini-rally has sent soybeans up 11.6 percent in value this week to a two-week high at 1468.5 cents/bushel. The market has weighed the impact...
Market Commentary: Trend is Your Friend
It was another mostly green day in agricultural futures, lending credence to the saying that the trend is your friend. Macro markets offered new variables...
Dems Get Their Package
With inflation and the hitting two quarters of negative GDP growth, the Democrats badly need a legislative win to bolster their chances in the mid-term ele...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.19/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.17/bushel, up $0.2675 from yesterday's close. No...
Export Sales
Export Sales for July 15-21, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 412,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 19 percent from the previous week and 29 percent fr...
Livestock Round Up: Beef on Dairy Breeding Trends
The July Cattle Inventory report showed a reduction in both beef and dairy cows by 2 percent and 1 percent respectively but adding in the last “norma...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Leads Soy Complex Higher; Spring Wheat Yields Pressure Futures
The CBOT was mixed in light-volume trading at mid-week with most of the market’s attention focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve and its interest rate...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Reverses Course, Futures Down Again With the surprising uptick in domestic reproductive sow inventory, hog prices pulled back last...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.03/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.9025/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Hurdles in Wheat Production
Brazil’s Embrapa, the lead government agricultural research agency, says the goal is for the country to become self-sufficient in wheat, and that goa...
War Helps EU Farmers Win; R&D Flush; Secrecy Loses
War Helps EU Farmers Win “Virtually all” EU member states have agreed to extend derogations from the new Good Agricultural and Environmental Co...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 July 2022 The major development was without a doubt the UN Agreement unblocking Ukrainian ports followed by Russian missiles b...
Market Commentary: Weather Premium
In an otherwise benign market situation, there were solid gains today in the grain and oilseed pits. This was in part out of a recognition that U.S. crop r...
August Congressional Recess Could Set Tone for 2023 Farm Bill
Congress will soon break for the August recess. The House is expected to recess this Friday; the Senate on Friday, 5 August. House members will be in...
Calmer Approach to China
President Joe Biden is scheduled to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, the first direct conversation since March. However, it is expected to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0075/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0375/bushel, up $0.3375 from yesterday's close. ...
Record Holders of Soymeal
When it comes to holding stocks of surplus corn and wheat, no country comes close to China and the U.S. is a distant second. However, it is vastly differen...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Middle Eastern and African buyers of Black Sea grains are looking with an...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Russia Blows Up Export Deal - Again
The CBOT was sharply higher after Friday’s agreement between Russia and Ukraine regarding a grain export corridor in the Black Sea was blown up &ndas...
Nahrung folgt Energie
The EU is providing member states with near-term flexibility in blending together the goals of greening agriculture and yet producing more food and German...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. No...
Recession Impacts on Trade
Business confidence is a key factor in the economy and there is a battle over whether the Fed’s interest rate hikes (another 75 basis points coming W...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Regional Update Argentina Political and Macroeconomic Situation The Argentine economy had a very complicated week last week. While the official exchange ra...
Gasoline Demand Destruction and Bullish RINs
Like meat prices last year, gasoline prices this year have taken on a political dimension. In both cases the White House employed the bully pulpit to press...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on July 1, 2022. Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.63 mill...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.6425/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.59/bushel, down $0.4725 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: Deal with the Devil
The announced deal with Russia was a major force on the market today. The quad (Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, the UN) signed an agreement providing a possible p...
Africa’s Opportunity; Dying for the Planet
Africa’s Opportunity Africa has been dependent on Russia for cheap wheat and on China for foreign direct investment. Now the U.S. and Europe are step...
Cattle Reports: On Feed Levels Steady from Year Ago, Total Cattle Inventory Down
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today and the semi-annual Cattle Inventory report. The number of cattle on feed – at feedlots of 1,00...
Oilseeds Highlights = Messed up Markets
Where to begin? Weather is a constant variable, but politicians are also always in the competition. In the nomenclature of the trade, border measures have...
Market Commentary: Rain Makes Grain, Maybe
Markets opened sharply lower with a mid-session effort at a comeback that wasn’t sustainable. The speculators for the most part have evaporated but t...
Livestock Round Up: Big Data Day for Cattle Markets Tomorrow
Tomorrow is a big day for the cattle market to digest data from some key reports. USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report, the semi-annual cattle inven...
Tax the Other Guy
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts temperatures to continue rising across Europe at a rate exceeding average global temperature cha...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.735/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales for July 8-14, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 511,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 10...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Latest Hog Market Data Point to More Sows than Expected The latest data release from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate t...
Market Commentary: Favorable Weather Pressures CBOT; Hogs Extend Rally on Cash Market Strength
Weather continues to drive the CBOT price action with more rains forecast for the western Corn Belt through the end of July and into August pressuring summ...
New World Order; Cure Worse than the Disease
New World Order U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said yesterday that harsh consequences will be imposed on countries that break the international econo...
Cotton Market Shifts
While area planted to cotton is expanding elsewhere in the world, U.S. farmers are sowing less. More importantly, abandonment is projected to jump from 8.5...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.195/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 July 2022 While the world is watching several rounds of negotiations focused on unblocking Ukrainian Black Sea ports, Russia c...
Market Commentary: CBOT Moves Lower After WCB Rain Forecast; Packer Margins Worrying for Cattle, Hogs
The CBOT gave back most of Monday’s gains after U.S. weather forecasts shifted to feature more scattered showers for the western Corn Belt. Along wit...
Agriculture and Emissions
It is well known that agriculture is concurrently a contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, and a potential sink for carbon and contributor to redu...
Thinking Positive
Heat waves are on everyone’s mind, and while we lack the expertise to accurately predict the impact of climate change on agricultural production, his...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.1225/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&...
House Ag Appropriations Bill Highlights Top Ag Issues
Yesterday, the House Rules Committee met to develop the “rule” for considering a “minibus’ package of seven annual appropriations f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s government will be selling 120,000 MT of wheat to the Wo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Hot, Dry Weather Forecast, Fund Short-Covering
The CBOT rallied to start the week on a combination of follow-through buying from Friday’s corn and soybean gains as well as a hot, dry forecast for...
Future for Agriculture
To some analysts, the current global crisis is because we have outsourced too much - labor, energy, food, national security. That has opened the pathway fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1075/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.1275/bushel, up $0.36 from yesterday's close. ...
Surprise ITC Vote on UAN Fertilizer Tariffs, Executive Order on Rail Labor Dispute
Today, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) voted not to impose antidumping (AD) duties on UAN from Russia and Trinidad and Tobago (see prior cove...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat New crop wheat continues to capture the attention of many farmers, traders, and analysts in Argentina. The drought is not ending and there are places...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7675/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: CBOT Caps Volatile Week with Quiet Day; Weather Increasingly Important
After a week of stunning volatility, the CBOT ended Friday with quiet trade that saw summer row crops firm while the wheat selloff continued, though in mut...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Policy Whiplash; Policy Foolhardy
Policy Whiplash A few weeks ago, and under pressure over food security concerns, EU Executive Vice President and Green Deal cheerleader Frans Timmermans re...
Oilseeds Highlights – A Whirlwind
Fears of macroeconomic weakness weighed on markets this past week. That and quad (Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, UN) discussions about opening Ukrainian exports...
Record Inflation Bringing Nuance to Biden Administration Policies
As this week’s CPI (up 9.1 percent June to June) and PPI (up 11.3 percent June to June) reports indicate, inflation is not “transitory.”...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.01/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.95/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Continued Pressure from Macros
Few people like the big banks but they can set the mood and that is what happened with reports of earnings declining at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. The ov...
Livestock Round Up: Food Inflation Sets Another Record; Meat Lags All Food
As Matt Herrington covered yesterday, consumer inflation was up, and on an annual basis food inflation led the all-goods Consumer Price Index (CPI), althou...