Topics for consideration in the farm bill are starting to take shape. According to reports from Capitol Hill, one likely change in the 2023 farm bill will...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8375/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt has reportedly secured a long-term contract with Germany to buy wheat from the European nation, though details on the agreement a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rains that have fallen so far in 2023 indicate a possible change in the South American weather pattern. They have been good in terms of quantity and r...
Pricier White Liquor
The three major global suppliers of sorghum are the U.S., Argentina, and Australia. China has been a critical market for U.S. sorghum in recent years but i...
Market Commentary: Bullish Signals in KCBT Wheat and Corn; WPI 2023 Acreage Forecasts
The CBOT capped a volatile week with a relatively quiet day of trading. That didn’t mean there weren’t ample technical developments, however, w...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
House Ag Committee Reorganizing After Its Organization Announcement
On 17 January, we reported the list of new Republican majority members of the House Agriculture Committee. At the time, the Republican side increased from...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. M...
USTR Downgraded; Lightweight Committee
USTR Downgraded The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative sits inside the Executive Office of the President. No different than other offices situated und...
Oilseed Highlights: Volatile Mood
The Market The trading week got started with the weather premium getting chopped down due to rains in Argentina. Those rains turned out to be good but not...
Market Commentary: Macro and Russians
After a brutal Monday, futures have been clawing back gains the past few days. Trading on Thursday was helped along by a U.S. Q4 2022 GDP number that pleas...
Dirty Deal; Standards Battle
Dirty Deal During the early days of negotiating the Uruguay Round, industry leaders fretted that trade liberalization aspirations would be thwarted by prot...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 13-19, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 500,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 6 percent from the previous wee...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.825/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: Broiler Outlook
Preliminary December broiler production was 3.8 billion pounds, which would bring 2022 annual production to 46.2 billion pounds. That is 103 percent of 202...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Finally Finds a Bid; Cold Storage Report Bearish Livestock
The CBOT saw another day of strength in wheat as funds continue to pare back their short positions in that market while commercial buying interest picked u...
Foreign Desk at State; IRA Confusion; Grain is Value-added Water
Foreign Desk at State Under Secretary Jose Fernandez has proved that an American desk is needed at the State Department. Speaking at the Center for Strateg...
Battle for Acres
S&P Global is the first private firm to issue an acreage planted forecast following USDA’s prediction for the upcoming campaign, but it will not...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&...
China In-Country Analysis
Cultural The Year of the Rabbit Arrives The Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations began on Saturday with festive New Year’s Eve gatherings. Sunday mark...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 - 20 January 2023 Grain prices remained relatively stable and are most likely to remain stable in the near term. The...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soy Complex Weakens Further
Corn and wheat futures posted a “Turnaround Tuesday” with Monday’s selloff yielding higher prices on a combination of profit taking and s...
China Dairy Hope
Global dairy trade, which had been growing at a compound annual rate of 4.7 percent has slowed over the past couple of years. A primary reason has been Chi...
Policy Shorts
Mexico Shrug U.S. trade officials meeting with their Mexican counterparts raised "grave concerns" over AMLO’s agricultural biotechnology policies and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.77/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.345/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. ...
Anticipating GDP Release
GDP for Q4 2022 will come out on Thursday of this week; the consensus expectations is for 2.5 percent growth. But the question is what lies ahead for 2023?...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkish authorities have decided, in their infinite wisdom, to ban the im...
Market Commentary: South American Rains Create CBOT Selling Flood
The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain, but this week it’s falling on Argentina and causing a flood of CBOT sell orders. Corn, wheat, and the so...
“Friend” Shoring; Better Grain Corridor; Food versus Fuel Germany
“Friend” Shoring WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned countries against the fallacy of friend shoring. She posed the questions: who...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.6625/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.2/bushel, down $0.215 from yesterday's close. ...
Cure for High Prices
Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to C...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Recent swings in temperatures across the EU could leave winter crops weakened and more vulnerable to damage. EU winter crops have escap...
Debt Ceiling Showdown in Congress This Week
As Congress returns this week, negotiating over the debt limit will be at the top of the to-do list. Coupling spending cuts with a debt limit increase was...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat continues to be scarce in general across Latin America, but especially in Argentina. It is strange to see Argentina’s export volumes prac...
Cattle on Feed
Jan 1 U.S. Cattle on Feed down 3 percent from 2022 Dec Placements in feedlots totaled 1.80 million head, 8 percent below 2021 Dec Marketings of fed c...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Lower on Technical Follow-Through; KC Wheat Rallies on Bull Spreading
The CBOT ended the week on a quiet note with wheat futures strengthening amid commercial buying and bull spreading while soymeal futures traded sharply low...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7625/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.415/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Cattle on Feed: Contraction
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed on feedlots with 1,000 head capacity or more on 1 January...
Lake Geneva; Farm Bill/China
Lake Geneva Switzerland officially notified the WTO today that it will formally agree to the agreement on fisheries subsidies. WTO Director General Ngozi O...
Oilseed Highlights – Soft Side of the Market
The market movers this week included primarily the chances for moderate to abundant rainfall in Argentina, macro concerns about economic growth, and the im...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for Jan. 6-12, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 473,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the pre...
Market Commentary: Risk Off
This was not so much a day of trade based on commitment but on ambivalence. Volume was modest at best, except in Feeder Cattle. Corn, soybeans, and wheat t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.345/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Industrial Policy is Back; Interest Rate Impacts
Industrial Policy is Back At Davos, USTR Kathrine Tai pitched her “worker-centric” trade policy while other American representatives defended n...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 January at 96.8 p...
Market Commentary: Rains in Argentina’s Forecast Pressure CBOT
The CBOT started the day on a strong note and tried to capitalize on Tuesday’s strength but faltered and ended lower after updated weather models sho...
Sucker Punch Instead of a Gut Blow
Former WTO spokesperson Keith Rockwell criticizes the Biden Administration for pursuing partnerships that lack the key word “trade.” President...
Killing the Golden Goose II
Big Ag continues to be the focus of attacks by populists who nostalgically, though without substantiation, insist that food from small and local is environ...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices Up Nearly 5 Percent In December For the ninth straight month, the average cost of food across various categories climbed. It was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8125/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.425/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 - 13 January 2023 The Russian Statistics Agency (RosStat) has adjusted preliminary crop size numbers for the 2022 cro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off Early Weakness to Post a Bullish Day
The CBOT started Tuesday with bearish pressure that impacted corn, soybeans, and wheat alike. The day’s trade didn’t end there, however, and th...
Transatlantic Farm Arguments; Trade as Leverage; AMLO/Dalio Visions
Transatlantic Farm Arguments Germany’s Greens are protesting this coming weekend over the lack of commitment to reducing farm inputs and want farming...
Ag as Energy Future
Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, co...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8525/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...
New House Agriculture Committee Republicans Named
The new members of the Republican majority of the House Agriculture Committee have been named; the Democrat members have not yet been assigned. The Republi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran reduced its import duty on oilseeds, including soybeans, from 9 to 1...
Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets will be closed Monday, 16 January 2023 in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. WPI’s offices will be closed as well...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends WASDE Week on Quiet Strength; All Eyes on Argentine Weather
The CBOT saw somewhat volatile trade following the January WASDE but strength was noted in soybeans, corn, and KCBT wheat. The futures market did not post...
Dairy’s Remarkable Growth Forecast to Continue
The year 2022 set a record for milk prices at $25.50/cwt, beating the 2014 record of $24.00/cwt. High prices will keep cows in production – and eatin...
Market Access to the Fore
The Biden Administration has thus far resisted demands by industry and agriculture to include market access in its trade policy vehicles such as the Indo-P...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.75/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4375/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Ma...
Oilseed Highlights – Big Reports Week
The Market The most influential event of the week was USDA’s release of its January WASDE, plus stocks reports. The soy complex was trading in the gr...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: USDA reduced U.S. soybean production by 69 million bushels to 4.276 billion bushels. Reductions were in Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, and Kansas.&...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA reduced U.S. corn production to 13.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is more than offset by a 1.6 million acre...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for Dec 30, 2022 – Jan 5, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 90,800 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 93 perc...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.71/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4275/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Surprise Information Bonanza!
USDA unloaded a gigabyte of data today and a bunch of it was not as expected. The pre-report temperature was bearish. Corn, winter wheats, and livestock we...
Policy Shorts
Trade Programs Renewal: Trade promoting Republicans want to use their new majority in the U.S. House to push through renewal of the Generalized Systems of...
Livestock Roundup: 2022 Meat Prices and 2023 Livestock Prices
USDA released its monthly meat price spreads today, which show the producer, packer and retailer share of the retail value of beef and pork. As expected, b...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Pork Prices Depressed as Market Still in Oversupply Market survey data from the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs (MARA) and other gover...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.56/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 2...
Market Commentary: CBOT Steady/Higher Ahead of WASDE; Hog Selloff Intensifies
Wednesday’s CBOT trade was almost entirely focused on positioning for the January WASDE that will be released at noon Thursday. For corn and soybeans...
Nudging Consumption; USMCA as Model; With Us or Against Us
Nudging Consumption Some in Europe are pushing to waive the VAT tax on fruits and vegetables to improve their consumption. There is also talk of increased...
Less Traded Category
The news headline says that the Filipino government will import 21,060 MT of onions to fill a supply shortfall until the next domestic harvest in February...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 - 6 January 2023 With a historic grain crop and the upcoming Russian Orthodox Christmas holidays, traders seem to hav...
Market Commentary: Volatile Trade for Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Falls on European Weakness
Trading at the CBOT was active on Tuesday with most major markets scoring wide ranges but ending well away from the day’s extremes. Wheat futures plu...
Money for Nothing; Change in Argentina; Pakistan on the Brink; Trade in Perspective
Money for Nothing Indonesian President Joko Widodo (and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim) promised to fight environmental “discrimination&rdquo...
Setting Some Farm Bill Issues
We’re nearing the middle of January which means all the farm and commodity groups will be holding their annual meetings, and in a farm bill year that...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.55/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.31/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...
Reshuffling the Wheat Suppliers
One of the larger shifts in global grain markets in recent years has been the result of the ascendency of the Black Sea region. However, there has also bee...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Malta’s Kordin Grain Terminal, in Valetta port, had a minor silo fi...
Market Commentary: Grains Lower in pre-WASDE Trade; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with funds remaining in a defensive mood heading into the January WASDE and Grain Stocks reports. The USDA will...
Farm Bill Trouble; Aggie Gets Ways & Means
Farm Bill Trouble The conservative Freedom Caucus flexed its muscle in holding up the election of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California) in becoming Speaker of...
No Inflation Hedge
Former trader and now academic Ivo Sarjanovic has a new book entitled, “Commodities as an Asset Class.” He was inspired to write on the topic o...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.5275/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.415/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&n...
The House of Representatives Has a Speaker but Not a Farm Bill Budget
It took a record 15 rounds of votes on the House floor to elect Representative Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House after mid-night on Friday. One impact...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina has ended with an estimated production of 11.5-12.5 MMT. This is no surprise to the market and compares with a 22 MMT...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Germany’s winter wheat area is estimated at 2.8 Mha for 2023/24, down 1.9 percent. Winter barley was seeded across 1.3 Mha this y...
Market Commentary: Argy Crop Ratings Fuel Soy Rally; Livestock Markets Move Lower
The CBOT was mixed to end a week that featured mostly bearishness with a surprise decline in Argentina’s soybean crop ratings sparking a rally in soy...
Red Meat Exports: Gains for Pork, Headwinds for Beef
Yesterday’s export report showed big sales for 2023 delivery totaling 73,600 MT. Mexico continued as the top market with sales of 31,000 MT (42...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.54/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.435/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights – New Year, Same Arguments
The Market The March soybean contract ended 2022 at $15.24/bushel, the fourth yearly rise in soybean values. As this first week of trading in 2023 comes to...
Bullish Market but Farm Bill?
In response to WPI's last home page survey asking the state of agricultural commodity markets in 2023, there was very little debate. An overwhelming majori...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for Dec 23-29, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 47,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for China (65,000 MT s...
Market Commentary: Mixed and Confused
Today was another mixed but generally bearish trading day in the New Year. Nothing has changed from the fundamentals of December when values generally move...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.5275/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4675/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Beef and Cattle Prices Starting Year Strong
Christmas and New Year’s Day fell on a weekend this year, and a deep freeze fell on much of the country over the holidays, all of it impacting the sl...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health Rising COVID-19 Related Death Toll Dampens New Year’s Outlook Although official figures appear to understate the reality of COVID on th...
Mexico Already Won; Pakistan Pays the Price; Hollow Funding
Mexico Already Won Opponents of Big Ag are arguing that Mexico’s proposed delay of a GMO corn ban, plus its focus on corn for food use and not feed m...
Market Commentary: Recession Forecasts, Fund Selling Sink Ag Futures
Except for cattle futures, the CBOT and CME ag markets were all lower on Wednesday as bearishness remains the prevailing sentiment. Commodity markets recei...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.5375/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.455/bushel, down $0.3 from yesterday's close.&nb...
China Strike First; Bad Boy of Africa; Made in Failure
China Strikes First The Biden Administration’s light-handed approach to trade is starting to reveal its cost. Ecuador has just announced completing a...
Holes in Food Security
The population in Africa is projected to nearly double from 1.34 billion in 2020 to 2.5 billion by 2050. By contrast, the rest of the world’s populat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 - 23 December 2022 Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced a record year-end grain production of 159.5 MMT in bunk...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sags to Start New Year; Late-2022 Rallies Fade
The CBOT and CME markets were almost unanimously lower to start 2023 with demand – either from exports or domestic consumption – being a primar...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Trade Hope Springs Eternal
The Biden Administration’s “trade lite” agenda will pick up steam in 2023 as it seeks to bring to fruition rules-based changes via its In...
New Final WOTUS Rule May Not be Final
In November 2021, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Army Corps of Engineers announced they’d come up with a proposed revision fo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.705/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.755/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Show us the Meat
Through a combination of cyclical factors and disease, 2023 promises to be a year with less meat. The poultry industry has had HAPI outbreaks at 492 commer...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION On 31 December, Turkey’s official Gazette published details of the...
Happy New Year from WPI
The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forw...
Market Commentary: Bullish End-of-Year Action in Soy Complex, Wheat
The CBOT posted another day of surprising between-holiday trade with multiple markets seeing above-average volume and scoring important technical developme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.785/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.92/bushel, up $0.18 from yesterday's close. M...
Export Sales
Export Sales Commitments and Shipments for Dec 16-22, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 478,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were primarily for Japan...
Market Commentary: Rains Sink Wheat; Cattle Hit New Highs on Beef Rally; Soy Complex Firms
The CBOT seemed to abandon its early-week theatrics on Thursday and return to a more typical between-holidays trading pattern. Grain markets posted losses...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Year-end Rally
The market started a little slow, with corn trading lower, while soybeans and SRW were only modestly higher. And why should they act any differently? The...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.855/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. M...
Notable Day in Supposed Slack Week
The week between Christmas and New Year’s Day is supposed to be reserved for binge watching movies. However, this first trading day after the three-d...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.745/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed down 3 Percent from December 1, 2021 Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.93 million head, 2 percent below 2021. Mark...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.6625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.76/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. ...
Winter Storm Rally and Bullish Livestock Reports
Normally, trading on the day before a three-day holiday weekend is a lackluster affair, but 2022 is an exception: The winter storm and bitter cold w...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Holiday Schedule
Financial markets will be closed on Monday, December 26, as part of the Christmas holiday. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report on Monday...
Oilseed Highlights – Lots of Moving Parts
The Market Rains in South America provided overall downward pressure in oilseeds this week. At the same time, there is damage that has been done as the Bue...
Spinning the WTO Wheels
India this week blocked a perfunctory motion at the WTO to move surplus WTO funds from 2021 into 2023. All other WTO members agreed that the funds could be...
What is the Growing Climate Solutions Act?
On Tuesday, WPI reported that the omnibus appropriations bill included the Growing Climate Solutions Act, prior to farm bill consideration. The legislation...
Export Sales
Export Sales for Dec 9-15, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 334,200 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for unknown destinations (86,000 MT), Jap...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.6225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&...
Pre-Holiday Trading
Today was more like what is expected just before a major holiday. Trading volume was generally lower for everything but the live cattle contract. February...
Zynismus; Fleischpreise; Good/Bad Trading; New Ag Trade Leadership
Zynismus German Finance Minister Christian Lindner urged the U.S. to apply “friendshoring” by giving American taxpayer EV subsidies to German a...
Livestock Roundup: COF and Hogs and Pigs
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 December at 97 pe...
Consumer Confidence, Blizzard Worries Lift Macro Markets and CBOT
It was a rare day in the markets as the major CBOT, CME, and macroeconomic markets all posted strong gains for the day. However, the reasons for bullishnes...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health China Lifts Restrictions, COVID Case Counts Soar The fears of the central government about the near-term impact of shifting away from its zer...
ANZ Split; Labor Key to PA
Anz Split The Australia-New Zealand relationship is very tight, with both nations freely trading with one another and generally sharing positions on foreig...
Let Us Say There’s a Problem
Grain and livestock products are the primary delivery sources for dietary calories, yet the accompaniment of a salad provides additional micronutrients and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.6225/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.6775/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 – 16 December 2022 Russian grain markets remain bearish with many factors putting pressure on the market inclu...
Market Commentary: Wheat Futures Ignore Winter Storm; Soy Complex Rallies Again
The CBOT is starting to show its typical pre-holiday quieting of trade and volatility but is not without a few surprises. The soy complex was the upside le...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.52/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.505/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. J...
Notable Policy Shorts
Defining National Security: U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said the WTO “is getting itself on very, very thin ice” by ruling that Trum...
Yams versus Sweet Potatoes
Yams and sweet potatoes are easily confused and yet they are very different crops, including in global trade. Yams are starchier are more like potatoes, wh...
Agreement on Omnibus Appropriations Bill Reached
Yesterday, we noted that Congress must pass an omnibus appropriations bill by Friday to keep the government open, and that the Senate was in the driver&rsq...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has received a $3 billion 46-month loan from the IMF with extra sup...
Market Commentary: Argy Rains Pressure CBOT; Soymeal Breaks Support; Storm System Threatens U.S. Wheat
The CBOT was mostly lower in early week trade with traders still exiting positions ahead of the next two weeks’ holidays. Fundamental news was light,...
SUR without Mirror Clause; Mexico GM Corn and 2023 Outlook
SUR without Mirror Clause The EU decided this past weekend to exempt agriculture from its revised Emmissions Trading Scheme, for now, but is under increasi...
Weighing What to Plant
The battle for acres between soybeans and corn is well known but other crops are also considered by producers. For the top three cereal grain crops, there...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.4725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.485/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&n...
House Republican Study Committee Budget and Farm Bill Plans
Congress is working on an omnibus appropriations bill to keep the government open, facing a funding deadline of 23 December following the passage of a a sh...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine harvest keeps moving at a good pace and the national average yield is increasing as combines enter areas in the center and south of Bue...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises While Grains Fall in Choppy Trade; Hogs Post $4 Rally
The CBOT was relatively calm on Friday despite the ongoing meltdown in macroeconomic markets. Corn traded both sides of unchanged before ending fractionall...
FTC Updating “Green Guides” for Labeling
Food product label claims are an important aspect of food product marketing, and a standard that is constantly evolving. In the early 1990s, nutrition was...
End of Exporting; Importing is Special; Alley-way Pet Transfers
End of Exporting Humans have traded food for millennia, from the luxuries of the spice trade and the Silk Road to wheat bartering in the Middle East/North...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.53/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.535/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights – Celebrity Crop
The Market Soybeans hit a three-month peak last week, but profits were taken Monday and after that they could not fully recover. The January contract lost...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.535/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5725/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. J...
Market Commentary: Macro Slam
Last half December is generally quiet and rangebound in the markets as the B Team is instructed to ride out the holidays in a caution mode. Except for the...
Livestock Roundup: Hog and Pork Market
As we reported on Tuesday, the December WASDE reduced pork production slightly for 2022 based on lighter carcass weights, which were down about a pound fro...
War of Words; Wasted Breath; Power of Trade Agreements
War of Words The U.S. and China never miss a chance to criticize the other in international fora and that includes meetings in Geneva. At the WTO’s 1...
Export Sales
Export Sales for Dec 2-8, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 469,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for unknown destinations (164,000 MT), Sout...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rise on Bull Spreading; Corn, Wheat Drift Lower in Light Volume
The CBOT traded a quiet day at mid-week with corn and wheat pushing lower and bull spreading developing in soybeans and soymeal. The soy complex remains th...
TPA Needed; Mirror Clauses; Digital Farming
TPA Needed The Biden Administration initially placed U.S. trade policy initiatives on ice pending what it described as building back better U.S. economic c...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.505/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4925/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 - 9 December 2022 Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia is revamping its positions on grains and oilseeds market...
Planting the Solution to High Food Prices
U.S. President Joe Biden's departing economic adviser, Brian Deese, said this morning that food prices are still too high and that it remains an area where...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Surges Again; Lower U.S. Dollar Sends Wheat, Corn to Early Gains
The major feature of the CBOT on Tuesday was the rally in all legs of the soy crush. Soybeans, soyoil, and to a lesser extent, soymeal, all posted strong g...
WASDE Livestock Forecast and CPI
The Word Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report marginally increased the forecast for total red meat and broiler production by 0.1 percent...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.535/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5075/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Politics and Food Safety; India’s G20 Leadership; Good for Pork and Eggs
Politics and Food Safety Considering food security concerns, a majority on the EU Council has asked the Directorate for Health and Food Safety to provide a...
Remodeling U.S.-Africa Relationship
Today kicks off the Biden White House hosting leaders from Africa for the U.S.-Africa Leaders’ Summit. Officials from the region want an extension of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MENA region grain importers have been assured by Ukraine shippers that th...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Flips Recent Trends; Corn, Wheat Rally After Russia Attacks Odessa Port
The CBOT essentially abandoned its existing trends on Monday and volatility was pronounced, especially in the soy complex. For the past few weeks, soybeans...
Counter-intuitive; Food Trade Rebound
Counter-intuitive Short-sellers are disliked by most, including corporate executives, politicians and regulators. Yet, research data shows that they contri...
Inflation and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data tomorrow. The pre-report expectation is for an annual rate of 7.3 percent (...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.54/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5475/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Ja...
Latin American Political Stability
Political instability should be a threat to food security, though that does not appear to be the case in Latin America. The UN Food and Agriculture Organiz...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Dry weather and a sweltering heat wave allowed for a rapid advance of the wheat harvest and an even earlier harvest date in the southern part of the...
WASDE Soybeans
Domestics U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23 are unchanged from last month. USDA explained that due to their review of EPA's recent...
WASDE Corn
U.S. domestic corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels due to slow sales. As a result, corn ending stocks are raised 75 million bushels. The...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. domestic wheat data is unchanged from last month. The global wheat supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million on reduced production for...
Market Commentary: USDA Cuts Corn Exports; Argy Wheat Crop Falls to 12.5 MMT; Cattle Take Back Early Losses
The December WASDE made few changes to its outlook for the world grain supply and demand situation, which left the CBOT to essentially continue its existin...
IPEF Lacks Leverage; Climate Import Barriers; Export Restrictions Failed
IPEF Lacks Leverage The U.S. will table actual text on some key issues at the soon to start next meeting of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) coun...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights – Shake it Up
The Market Soybeans were in the green on Friday morning until USDA released its bearish December WASDE report. Traders had expected U.S. carryover stocks t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.44/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.3425/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...
Temporary E15 Waiver Made a Difference in 2022
Ethanol blending rates increased in 2022 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), especially during this summer. In April the Biden EPA is...
Market Commentary: A Tale of Tails
Wheat and corn continue to trade on one edge of the distribution while soybeans and soymeal chase the other side. The continuing trend is for declines in t...
Balancing Act; Mercosur Collapse
Balancing Act On the outskirts of the EU’s annual Outlook conference today, Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski stated that there is the ne...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.425/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4625/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&n...
Export Sales
Export Sales for Nov 25 - Dec 1, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 189,900 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were primarily for China (65,000 MT), Iraq (50...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle Contract Library
Yesterday, USDA released the regulation for the Cattle Contract Library pilot program, a provision that was included in the 2022 appropriations bill which...
Market Commentary: The Dead Cat Bounces Again in Wheat; Soymeal Hits Fresh Highs on Argy Weather
The CBOT seemed to start looking ahead to Friday’s December WASDE from the USDA at mid-week, which created a temporary, at least, pause in the sellin...
Monoculture Phobia
We are idiots. There is a certain elegance to New Age agriculture. Miles and miles of fields dedicated to either corn or soybeans are so vainly contrived b...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health New COVID-19 Cases Fall By A Third, Beijing Lifts Restrictions The sharp run-up in new coronavirus cases in November have quickly fallen at t...
Bright Side is Meat Trade
Rabobank says it sees an animal protein production slowdown in 2023, led by beef since it is the downside of the U.S. cattle cycle, but continued expansion...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.4125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.495/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 Novermber – 2 December 2022 With the UN humanitarian corridor back in place, Russia is reportedly procrastinating with insp...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Highs New Highs; Cattle, Hogs Plunge Lower; Weakness in Corn, Wheat Continues
Soymeal was the upside leader (and one of the few markets to finish higher) on Tuesday as a combination of tight spot supplies and strong feed demand bolst...
2023 Farm Bill Dynamics; Deforestation versus CO2
2023 Farm Bill Dynamics A Farm Foundation session today perusing the dynamics of writing the 2023 Farm Bill had several key takeaways: Political Dynamic: T...
Japan’s Beef Imports
The U.S. and Japan struck an initial agreement in 1988 that reduced the barrier to imports of American beef. This year the two countries signed an updated...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.3725/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.29/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
EPA’s Estimated Impact of Approving Canola Oil as Renewable Diesel
As mentioned on Friday 2 December, in a separate proposed rule issued with the RVOs, EPA finalized an approved pathway for canola oil to be used in renewab...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan recently received very good rainfalls which the Ag Ministry says b...
Market Commentary: CBOT Selloff Intensifies; Aussie Wheat Crop Gets Bigger
Monday offered little reprieve from the CBOT’s recent trends with the selloffs in soyoil and wheat intensifying. Funds were net sellers in both marke...
TTC Yes, IRA No; Industrial Policy Caution; IPEF to Senate
TTC Yes, IRA No Despite French President Emmanuel Macron’s high profile State Dinner with President Joe Biden last week, modifying the Inflation Redu...
USA Lost Benefits of CPTPP
The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership entered into force in 2019 without the U.S. as a member. Although four years of trade data plus...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.405/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.39/bushel, down $0.22 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Another Look at the RVOs for Ethanol
On Friday 2 December, WPI broke down the proposed 2023 - 2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The rule was 692 pages...