World Perspectives
  • Markets
  • World
  • Publications

Articles

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Price Reverses Course, Futures Down Again With the surprising uptick in domestic reproductive sow inventory, hog prices pulled back last...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.03/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.9025/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Hurdles in Wheat Production

Brazil’s Embrapa, the lead government agricultural research agency, says the goal is for the country to become self-sufficient in wheat, and that goa...

War Helps EU Farmers Win; R&D Flush; Secrecy Loses

War Helps EU Farmers Win “Virtually all” EU member states have agreed to extend derogations from the new Good Agricultural and Environmental Co...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 July 2022 The major development was without a doubt the UN Agreement unblocking Ukrainian ports followed by Russian missiles b...

Market Commentary: Weather Premium

In an otherwise benign market situation, there were solid gains today in the grain and oilseed pits. This was in part out of a recognition that U.S. crop r...

Calmer Approach to China

President Joe Biden is scheduled to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, the first direct conversation since March. However, it is expected to...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0075/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0375/bushel, up $0.3375 from yesterday's close. ...

Record Holders of Soymeal

When it comes to holding stocks of surplus corn and wheat, no country comes close to China and the U.S. is a distant second. However, it is vastly differen...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Middle Eastern and African buyers of Black Sea grains are looking with an...

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Russia Blows Up Export Deal - Again

The CBOT was sharply higher after Friday’s agreement between Russia and Ukraine regarding a grain export corridor in the Black Sea was blown up &ndas...

Nahrung folgt Energie

The EU is providing member states with near-term flexibility in blending together the goals of greening agriculture and yet producing more food and German...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.  No...

Recession Impacts on Trade

Business confidence is a key factor in the economy and there is a battle over whether the Fed’s interest rate hikes (another 75 basis points coming W...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Regional Update Argentina Political and Macroeconomic Situation The Argentine economy had a very complicated week last week. While the official exchange ra...

Gasoline Demand Destruction and Bullish RINs

Like meat prices last year, gasoline prices this year have taken on a political dimension. In both cases the White House employed the bully pulpit to press...

Cattle on Feed

U.S. cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on July 1, 2022. Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.63 mill...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.6425/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.59/bushel, down $0.4725 from yesterday's close.&...

Market Commentary: Deal with the Devil

The announced deal with Russia was a major force on the market today. The quad (Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, the UN) signed an agreement providing a possible p...

Africa’s Opportunity; Dying for the Planet

Africa’s Opportunity Africa has been dependent on Russia for cheap wheat and on China for foreign direct investment. Now the U.S. and Europe are step...

Oilseeds Highlights = Messed up Markets

Where to begin? Weather is a constant variable, but politicians are also always in the competition. In the nomenclature of the trade, border measures have...

Market Commentary: Rain Makes Grain, Maybe

Markets opened sharply lower with a mid-session effort at a comeback that wasn’t sustainable. The speculators for the most part have evaporated but t...

Livestock Round Up: Big Data Day for Cattle Markets Tomorrow

Tomorrow is a big day for the cattle market to digest data from some key reports. USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report, the semi-annual cattle inven...

Tax the Other Guy

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts temperatures to continue rising across Europe at a rate exceeding average global temperature cha...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.735/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close.&...

Export Sales

Export Sales for July 8-14, 2022.   Wheat: Net sales of 511,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 10...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Latest Hog Market Data Point to More Sows than Expected The latest data release from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate t...

New World Order; Cure Worse than the Disease

New World Order U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said yesterday that harsh consequences will be imposed on countries that break the international econo...

Cotton Market Shifts

While area planted to cotton is expanding elsewhere in the world, U.S. farmers are sowing less. More importantly, abandonment is projected to jump from 8.5...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.195/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 July 2022 While the world is watching several rounds of negotiations focused on unblocking Ukrainian Black Sea ports, Russia c...

Agriculture and Emissions

It is well known that agriculture is concurrently a contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, and a potential sink for carbon and contributor to redu...

Thinking Positive

Heat waves are on everyone’s mind, and while we lack the expertise to accurately predict the impact of climate change on agricultural production, his...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.1225/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&...

House Ag Appropriations Bill Highlights Top Ag Issues

Yesterday, the House Rules Committee met to develop the “rule” for considering a “minibus’ package of seven annual appropriations f...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s government will be selling 120,000 MT of wheat to the Wo...

Future for Agriculture

To some analysts, the current global crisis is because we have outsourced too much - labor, energy, food, national security. That has opened the pathway fo...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1075/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.1275/bushel, up $0.36 from yesterday's close. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat New crop wheat continues to capture the attention of many farmers, traders, and analysts in Argentina. The drought is not ending and there are places...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7675/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close.&...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Policy Whiplash; Policy Foolhardy

Policy Whiplash A few weeks ago, and under pressure over food security concerns, EU Executive Vice President and Green Deal cheerleader Frans Timmermans re...

Oilseeds Highlights – A Whirlwind

Fears of macroeconomic weakness weighed on markets this past week. That and quad (Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, UN) discussions about opening Ukrainian exports...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.01/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.95/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Continued Pressure from Macros

Few people like the big banks but they can set the mood and that is what happened with reports of earnings declining at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. The ov...

Export Sales

Export Sales for July 1-7, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 1,017,200 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Prices See Biggest Jump in Nearly Two Years Not since September 2020 has the average cost of food in China risen by more than 3 percent...

Knowledge-based Policymaking; Russia’s Quid Pro Quo

Knowledge-based Policymaking A new report called Unleash Prosperity chides the Biden Administration for its dearth of business experience. Of the 68 top of...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9525/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.1075/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&n...

Timidity in a Brave New World

American farmers like to think they are innovative but when it comes to GMO wheat, it was Argentina that was the first mover. Bioceres’ drought resis...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Market: 4-8 July 2022 Russia’s harvest continues showing good results thus supporting an optimistic forecast for wheat production duri...

WASDE Soyoil

Soyoil – USDA’s July estimate is for the U.S. seasonal average price of soybean oil in 2022/23 to be 69 cents per pound - down 1 cent...

WASDE Soymeal

Soymeal – USDA’s July estimate is for the U.S. seasonal average price of soybean meal in 2022/23 to be $390.00 per short ton, down $10.00. ...

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans – USDA’s July estimate is for U.S. soybean production at 4.5 billion bushels, down 135 million on lower harvested area.  Harveste...

WASDE Corn

 Corn – USDA’s July estimate is for larger U.S. supplies and higher ending stocks.  U.S. corn production is up 45 million bushels due...

WASDE Wheat

Wheat – USDA’s July estimate is for larger U.S. supplies, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks:  Supplies are raised on increased prod...

Market Commentary: July WASDE Neutral/Bearish, CBOT Collapses Anyway

The CBOT was not in a good mood Tuesday (at least not from a long’s perspective) as it opened on the defensive and found reasons to justify a massive...

Farmers Pay the Price; Incorrigible Skeptics; Leveraging Security

Farmers Pay the Price Argentina is giving assurance that it will make payment on its IMF loans, but it will not be easy. Inflation is soaring and the peso...

Dollar Weighs on U.S. Exporters

The dollar and the euro reached parity for the first time in two decades, and the dollar is rising in value against other currencies. This is the result of...

WASDE Livestock and Poultry

Today’s Word Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report slightly lowered its forecast for total red meat and poultry production compared...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.865/bushel, down $0.425 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.1425/bushel, down $0.4225 from yesterday's close.&...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Yemen is expected to be dependent on India for its wheat supply for 2022...

Market Commentary: Early Strength Fades on Profit Taking, pre-WASDE Positioning

On Sunday night, the CBOT seemed set to dramatically extend last week’s rally with corn, wheat, and soybeans all gapping higher at the open in respon...

Rotten Cotton

The war against GMO’s is still playing out in Africa. French news platform RFI reports that farmers in Kenya are fighting over whether to grow Bt cot...

Anti-Antitrust; Indecision

Anti-Antitrust After two juries failed to reach a verdict and a federal judge questioned further pursuit of the charge of price fixing, the U.S. Department...

60 Days Until RFS Reset: Things to Watch

In 2005 Congress passed the Energy Policy Act (EPA) which created the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) statutory schedule. The 2005 EPA was amended it in 2007...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.29/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.565/bushel, down $0.35 from yesterday's close. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomic Outlook Argentina remains in chaos. In the last few weeks, the country has endured a strike of transporters protesting the lack of diesel, wh...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  World wheat and commodity prices remain on the defensive as 2022/23 wheat shortage estimates are less dire than previously predicted an...

Export Sales

Export Sales for June 24-30, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 286,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for Taiwan (42,800 MT), Japan (39,500 MT), South Ko...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.235/bushel, up $0.2725 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.915/bushel, up $0.55 from yesterday's close. ...

North American Live Animal Trade

USDA released monthly trade data today, including live animal trade in North America. Feeder calves from Mexico through May, at 372,342 head are down 31 pe...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Inverted Farm Politics; Most Honorable Shinzō Abe

Inverted Farm policy Politics Farmers in the U.S. tend to be conservative and vote Republican. This can sometimes be perverse. The U.S. House Republican St...

Oilseeds Highlights – Noose Around the Neck

Soybean Pressures Global oilseed supplies are tight and under further threat. More dry heat is coming to the U.S. Midwest and if it persists into August, t...

Market Commentary: Finally a Reversal

After weeks of pushing commodity indices into near-record drops, everything opened and closed today in the green, except for feeder cattle. Reversing the o...

USMCA Challenge; Throwback Thursday

USMCA Challenge There will be trilateral meetings between USMCA ministers and then national leaders later this year. Foreign policy analysts conclude that...

Livestock Round Up: Making Hay

Last week’s acreage reports showed corn acres up, and this week, Brazil’s CONAB is showing a slight increase in the safrinha corn crop, all off...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.365/bushel, up $0.32 from yesterday's close. ...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Surging Hog and Pork Prices Draw Government’s Attention Recent surveys conducted by China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs...

Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Global Recession Fears Grow

The CBOT was mixed Wednesday after oilseed markets traded higher overnight but ran into strong selling pressure during the day session. Wheat posted yet an...

Canada’s Declining Barley Area

Stats Canada issued its estimate that 7 million acres (2.83 million hectares) will be planted to barley this year. That is 15.6 percent less than last year...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.85/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.045/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Markets: 27 June-1 July 2022 Russia continued harvesting grains and it seems like the 2022 crop will be very close to a record. Russian Grai...

Market Commentary: Global Macro Worries, Technical Selling Spark CBOT Selloff

The CBOT ended sharply lower on Tuesday amid a wicked combination of a rising U.S. dollar, favorable weekend rains in the Midwest, and a “risk off&rd...

Making the Trains Run on Time

Rail capacity and operational issues have been market factors the past 18 months or more, and are increasingly having an impact as evidenced by reports of...

History Repeating is Okay

According to the news, multilateralism and globalization are in crisis. No less than U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said, “it&rsqu...

Mysterious Markets

President Biden tweeted over the weekend that, “My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey has been asked by the Ukraine to seize a vessel from Russia with 7...

U.S. Independence Day Holiday

The CBOT/CME markets will be closed on Monday, 4 July in observance of the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be...

Friday Trade Policy Shorts; Bets on Grain and Implementation

Friday Trade Policy Shorts EU Procedural: Jurisdictional issues arise as the pesticide restrictions proposed in the EU fall under DG-Sante, but the funding...

4th of July, Russian Ruble, and Ethanol

Despite high gas prices, the American Automobile Association (AAA) is predicting heavy travel over this long weekend for the 4th of July holiday, forecasti...

Oilseeds Highlights – Supply is Responding

Soybeans did not beat corn after all in the annual battle for acres. USDA’s Acreage report this week revealed that 88.33 million acres will be plante...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.46/bushel, down $0.38 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: Some Tweaks but Bearish Weather

Trading was mostly lower before USDA released its Acreage and Stocks reports at noon eastern time today. The reports could have been market movers but much...

Staying in Lanes; Goodbye Ag; East-West Helps the Poor

Staying in Lanes Under ideal governance, elected legislatures create the principles of public policy. For example, pesticides should be used when proven sc...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1975/bushel, down $0.34 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.84/bushel, down $0.46 from yesterday's close. ...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Price Remains Hot, Jumps More Than 6 Percent in One Day Tuesday saw the national average live hog price single day increase of RMB 1.12/...

Export Sales

Export Sales for June 17-23, 2022.   Wheat: Net sales of 496,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for the Philippines (68,000 MT), Brazil...

Summary of Futures

Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.5375/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $9.3/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...

Food Crisis in Mexico; No Easy End to War

Food Crisis in Mexico Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) visits President Joe Biden in the White House next month and farme...

No Global Food Crisis

The so-called global food crisis is first and foremost driven by the wheat market, where production has been under stress in major countries like Pakistan,...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Markets: 20-24 June 2022 Russia launched harvesting in the Southern Federal District as well as in seized and annexed Ukrainian Crimea. Othe...

Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday; Weather Now Secondary to USDA Reports

The CBOT posted a Turnaround Tuesday with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex pushing higher after the recent weakness. Soybeans and soymeal led the ra...

Hogs and Pigs Preview

USDA will release the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report tomorrow. All hogs and pigs as of 1 June are expected to be down 0.7 percent from last year to 72.641...

Properly Characterizing China; Concrete Plan Needed

Properly Characterizing China Former President Donald Trump had a lot of choice descriptors for China, many of them crude. Europe tried the term “str...

Feed Demand from Stopping IUR

The WTO has been searching for limits in fisheries subsidies since at least 2001. There was agreement earlier this month to curb subsidies, though overfish...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.595/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $9.36/bushel, up $0.185 from yesterday's close. ...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is hoping to increase the 2023 planted area by 1 million acres. In...

Market Commentary: Grains Still Defensive; Soy Complex Rallies on Spot Demand

The CBOT selloff continued on Monday with new crop corn and wheat futures leading the way lower. Favorable weather for the Corn Belt pressured corn futures...

Recession, Maybe Not – More Inflation, Yes

There is new economic data out showing that the economy is not destined for a recession (near term, anyway). The impact of increased interest rates may jus...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.4425/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $9.175/bushel, down $0.19 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Russia Threatens Vegetable Oil

Oil palms require fertilizer every three months to maintain productivity but Russia’s war in Ukraine has threatened world supplies and driven up pric...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Argentina’s wheat situation is increasingly complicated. It has not rained for several weeks, and the soil moistures are insufficient for plant...

Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed up 1 percent on June 1, 2022 - at 11.8 million head. (USDA notes that this is the highest June 1 inventory since the series began in 19...

Market Commentary – Tough Week

There was some reprieve today, but the cumulative toll of noncommercial selling has left its mark on the market. Speculators reduced their net long positio...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.5025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $9.365/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Cattle on Feed: Another Record

USDA released its monthly cattle on feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 11.8 million, 101 percent above June 2021, and the hi...

Oilseeds Highlights – Prices Plummet with Sales

Although soybeans closed higher today, it could not offset the losses over the previous four trading sessions and left July soybeans nearly a dollar lower...

Export Sales

Export Sales for June 10-16, 2022   Wheat: Net Export Sales of 477,800 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for Japan (163,900 MT), Mexico (1...

Market Commentary: OVERSOLD

Markets remained under pressure today amid the scare of a recession and a drop in demand. The fear is somewhat overstated in grains and oilseeds since rece...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.4675/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close.  Sep 22 Wheat closed at $9.4925/bushel, down $0.395 from yesterday's close...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 June at 101.5 per...

Gutsy USTR; Inflation Beats Exports; Ruble Hell

Gutsy USTR  USTR Katherine Tai is in an interagency battle over whether to lift tariffs on China to try and stem inflation, and she’s not backin...

Market Commentary: Technicals Are Breaking Down

The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with a collapsing crude oil market and sharp selloffs in European commodity markets pressuring values. Tuesday&rsquo...

Toughest Commodity Business

While many agricultural commodities are experiencing a boom in demand and prices, orange juice consumption has plummeted worldwide. Global demand over the...

Green Food Crisis; Geopolitical Collusion

Green Food Crisis Regardless of the war in Ukraine and a global food price shock, the EU is moving forward with its plan to cut by half the use of “r...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics COVID-19 Produces Largest Food Cost Increase in 18 Months  It has taken a few weeks, but data from China’s National Bureau of Sta...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.68/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $9.765/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Market: 13-17 June 2022 Russia launched its harvesting campaign which pushed grain prices down, especially in the Southern Federal District...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.62/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $9.84/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Ignoring Wall Street

While outside financial markets worked at reversing last week’s plunge into bear territory, agricultural commodity markets started the shortened trad...

Friends in High Places; Fertilizer Crisis; Import Solution

Friends in High Places The Biden Administration submitted an amicus brief to the Supreme Court on the challenge by livestock producers to California’...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Almarai Dairy Products will be investing $107 millio...

U.S. Juneteenth Holiday

The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed Monday, 20 June 2022 in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspec...

Looking at Food Spending for Home Delivery

USDA release its Food Expenditure series data today through 2021. It is interesting data to look at given the current inflationary environment for food and...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Testy Meeting; WTO Baby Steps; Russia and Ukraine Exports

Testy Meeting At the behest of her boss, President Biden, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has called an emergency meeting with oil refining executi...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.845/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.3425/bushel, down $0.44 from yesterday's close.&...

Oilseed Highlights – Story of Adjustments

Last week’s WASDE set the tone for the market with a nearly 10 percent cut in U.S. soybean carryover in 2022/23, a deeper cut than expected. Then Mal...

Market Commentary: Up Day, Except for Beef and Soyoil

For the most part, agricultural commodity markets ignored the blood bath on Wall Street. December corn broke through resistance, soybeans earned back some...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.8825/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.7825/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close.&n...

Developing versus Developing at WTO; Labor, Environment Flipped

Developing versus Developing at WTO India’s Commerce Minister, Piyush Goyal proclaimed to be speaking for all developing countries as held WTO negoti...

Export Sales

Export Sales for June 3 - June 9, 2022.   Wheat: Net sales of 236,900 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023.    Corn:  Net sales of 140,9...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Survey of Shanghai Businesses Reveal Severe Economic Distress The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently published the findings f...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.74/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.5/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilseeds Dominate

Japan is not alone in switching away from rice and toward other crops. Rice production has grown slower globally over the past ten years than other crops l...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Market: 6-10 June 2022 Russian markets remained bearish, however the market where prices are formed – Black Sea export market –...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.6825/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.5025/bushel, down $0.2075 from yesterday's close...

Agritech Emphasis; Fertilizer Emphasis; Whale Irony

Agritech Emphasis Climate change, geopolitical conflict and food security are coming together and changing global agriculture. Supply chain and technology...

It’s More Than Food

In Japan, rice has been called the essence of culture; it has meant more than just food, though food security is the basis for policy interventions to prot...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran reports that its cereals imports for 2022/23 will drop by 25 percent...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.6925/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.71/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Tough Road in Geneva

The start of the 12th WTO Ministerial in Geneva does not provide much hope for the rest of the week. The EU and U.S. delegations walked out when Russia&rsq...

Maybe more Chicken

The OECD notes the advantages of poultry meat over competing major animal proteins pork and beef. Its lower cost due to a better feed conversion ratio part...

WASDE Livestock and Poultry, WASDE and Exports

Friday’s June Word Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report raised its forecast for total red meat and poultry production slightly over...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Wheat continues to capture the attention of many traders and analysts in Argentina. Planting continues to be delayed due to lack of soil moisture and...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Morocco abandoned import taxes previously placed on sunflower seed, soybeans, and rapeseed.  Milling Wheat  U.S. and EU wheat...

Policymaking is Hard; Overly Discounting Private R&D

Policymaking is Hard Washington has long had troubles agreeing on major legislation and now the EU is hitting hurdles. Te European Parliament first rejecte...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.7325/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.7075/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&...

Food CPI, Equities, and Fertilizer

It was a big day for market-moving reports with the WASDE report (see Matt Herrington’s analysis) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the...

WASDE Soyoil

USDA’s June 2022 estimate for the seasonal average price of U.S. soyoil in 2022/23 is unchanged at 70 cents per pound.  ...

WASDE Soymeal

USDA’s June 2022 estimate for the seasonal average price of U.S. soymeal in 2022/23 is unchanged at $400 per short ton.  ...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s June 2022 estimate of U.S. soybeans is for lower beginning and ending stocks and higher prices in 2022/23. U.S soybean ending stocks are down...

WASDE Corn

USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for increased ending stocks of U.S. corn by 40 million bushels. U.S. exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on re...

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for slightly lower ending stocks of global wheat.  Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million to...

Oilseeds Highlights – Top Not Here

S&D The oilseeds supply cinches ever tighter but it will respond to the extent it can. Malaysian palm oil production is projected to increase 3 percent...

Market Commentary: Initial Caution Gives Way

The overnight session was a yawner and Thursday morning’s trading at first appeared to follow. However, about an hour and a half in, suddenly corn an...

Livestock Round Up: Beef Export Demand Remains Exceptional

USDA’s meat trade data for April were released this week, and global beef demand remains exceptionally strong, despite all the various hurdles and ch...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.73/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.7125/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Domestic Tariff War; IPEF/APEP Blur

Domestic Tariff War Tariffs are applied to imported goods but in the U.S. the debate over their application to China has become a domestic fight. U.S. Trea...

Export Sales

Export Sales for May 27-June 2, 2022.   Wheat: Net sales of 451,000 MT for the 2022/2023 marketing year, which began June 1.  Corn: Net sale...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Weak Demand Continues to Hold Back Live Hog Prices According to latest surveys conducted by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), th...

WTO Reforms; Cash in Lieu of Commodities; Too Much Fun

WTO Reforms Brazil has proposed annual instead of biennial ministerial meetings. The U.S. and EU agree with this plan, arguing it would make the WTO more r...

Domestic and Export Flour Limits

U.S. domestic wheat flour consumption boomed in 2020 when the COVID quarantine created a surge in home baking aficionados. In what may be a foretelling of...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.645/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.7475/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Markets: 30 May – 3 June 2022 Russian markets remained bearish, however in certain geographical areas prices were stagnant where selle...

Budget Guard Rails for 2023 Farm Bill

The House Agriculture Committee will hold two farm bill hearings this week, one on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and one on crop pro...

Sacrificing the Future; Phosphorus Paradox

Sacrificing the Future The ASPCA has announced $100,000 in grants for its Fund to End Factory Farming. Like others in the small is better camp, the result...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.57/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.7175/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Dominance in Rice

India is the world’s largest exporter of rice and Refinitiv points out that India’s export rice prices have been consistently lower than that o...

Orbán and AMLO; IPEF Leverage

Orbán and AMLO The EU must contend with Hungarian President Viktor Orbán and the U.S. must contend with Mexican President Andrés Manue...

EPA’s Final RVO Rule

As Matt Herrington noted on Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency released the final required volume obligations (RVO) rule which set the biofuels bl...

Spudtacular

FAO Director General Qu Dongyu told the World Potato Conference that the global potato crop could double over the next decade to take a larger role in feed...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Lack of rain and low soil moisture are still issues for Argentine farmers as they approach the wheat planting window. A few days ago, small areas rec...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.425/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.93/bushel, up $0.53 from yesterday's close.  J...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s spring planting has reached 13.182 Mha, 78 percent of the expected acreage. Of that, 4.553 Mha were sown to corn (83 pe...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.27/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.4/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Export Sales

Export Sales for May 20-26, 2022  Wheat:  Net sales 700 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 98 pe...

Flailing on Inflation; Japan’s Beef Craving; Incongruous Messaging

Flailing on Inflation Many months after inflation began eating into pocketbooks, the Biden Administration is on a full court press to try and address the p...

Oilseeds Highlights – Some Volatility

Over this past week, soybeans have gone up 50 cents in value and fallen 50 cents in value. Today, they appear to be falling again. Unlike wheat, the volati...

Mexico Fighting Inflation by Suspending Tariffs

Mexico announced last month that it is suspending import duties on 66 tariff lines for food and input items in order to fight inflation. The suspension wil...

Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday

After sharp losses earlier in the week, the market turned around today for everything but July corn. Egypt’s GASC paid a record sum for wheat, indica...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Price Continues Run, White Feather Broilers Rebound China’s national average live hog price continued its steady climb to close ou...

Biden Trade Policy; Messaging Food Insecure; PSH without Answers

Biden Trade Policy The Biden Administration’s approach to trade policy continues to be plodding and cautious. After meeting with New Zealand Prime Mi...

Summary of Futures

Jul 22 Corn closed at $7.3025/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Jul 22 Wheat closed at $10.5825/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Livestock Round Up: Summer Meat Demand

A key question now that the meat and poultry markets are moving into the high demand season is how consumer demand will hold up – especially compared...

Search World Perspectives

Sign In to World Perspectives

Don’t have an account yet? Sign Up