California is by far the largest tomato producing state with Florida far behind. However, California processes most of the tomatoes, leaving Florida’...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.93/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $9.01/bushel, down $0.37 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkish officials said they want the Ukraine/Russia grain corridor agreem...
Market Commentary: Renewed Russian Attacks Send Wheat Sharply Higher; Corn, Soybeans Follow in pre-WASDE Trade
The CBOT rallied to start the week with wheat posting 55+ cent gains to lead the way. The catalyst for the day’s rally was Russia’s renewed and...
Free Trade Double Talk
U.S. House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Massachusetts) took a delegation to the WTO last week and upon return encouraged the Biden W...
Employment and Inflation Analysis
Recent economic data is still less than conclusive on where the U.S. economy is headed. Last week’s job report came out strong. Payrolls were up 263,...
Alt-Meat Conundrum
Meat substitutes appear to be having trouble in the U.S. but perhaps not in Asia. Recent headlines related to the U.S. market imply a distribution chain th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.9825/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $9.38/bushel, up $0.5775 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat prices in the local market continue to rise. The fear of drought and a tight supply/demand balance are causing daily increases. Since the begin...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Iraq tendered for 50 KMT of milling wheat last week and the lowest offer received was for Ukrainian wheat at $386/MT CNF. U.S. wheat wa...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Freeze Risks; Miss. River Issues Persist
The CBOT was mostly higher in quiet trade to end the week. Corn and soybean futures moved higher in some technical buying and short-covering due to the exp...
Worth a Try; Embarrassing Energy Policy; Broken Solution
Worth a Try WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is hoping that a “retreat” focused on agriculture and scheduled for 24 October will help c...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights - Like Shifting Sands
The Market Soybean and soymeal futures experienced a volatile week of trading but for soyoil it was all to the topside as it chased a rebound in palm oil v...
Declining Milk over Feed Margins
Yesterday, we discussed the hog to corn ratio and cost of production for pork producers; today is a look at the dairy sector. As would be expected, all the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.8325/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.8025/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Lower Follow Through
The market chased the overnight lower closes and accelerated them as the trading day wore on. Exceptions were soyoil and pork, with the latter seeing robus...
Livestock Roundup: Hog to Corn Ratio Signaling No Nearby Expansion
Last week, we covered the Hogs and Pigs report which showed the swine herd still in contraction mode but slowing down from earlier in the year. The Septemb...
Politics and Protectionism; OPEC and WTO
Politics and Protectionism Senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida) and other members of the Florida Congressional delegation are up for reelection next month. Fres...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.755/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.79/bushel, down $0.23 from yesterday's close. ...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Policy Xi Looks To Third Term as Golden Holiday Celebration Arrives With China’s Communist Party set to hold its 20th national congress on 16...
Export Sales
Export Sales for September 23-29, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 229,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for the Philippines (85,300 MT, including decre...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm After Two-Sided Trade; Soymeal Breaks Key Support
The CBOT was mixed in quiet, two-sided trade at mid-week. Corn and wheat futures managed to post slight gains after trading both in the green and red while...
Policymaker Macro-Risks
Markets are volatile due to the large number of economic cross-currents. The WTO unsurprisingly announced that global trade would decline in 2023. The comb...
No Easy Solution
The world’s population will need more food and that competes with the sustainability of resources. Historically, wars and famine took care of the pro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.84/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $9.02/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. No...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26-30 September 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 30 September wheat production showed 101.9 MMT of bunke...
Macro Market Rally Buoys Corn, Soybeans; Profit Taking Pressures Wheat; Hog Selloff Continues
Once again, macroeconomic markets drove the CBOT’s primary price action, only this time the influence from outside markets was bullish. Overnight, pa...
Watching Brazil’s Elections
The U.S. mid-term Congressional election is five weeks away; one election that much of agriculture is watching is Brazil’s Presidential race. In the...
Contrasting Corn Policies; Bye, Bye Blair; Soymeal to Follow Chicken Legs; Ethnic Food Disparagement
Contrasting Corn Policies Both Mexico and Kenya have a problem with food security and the adverse impacts of inflation, but Nairobi and Mexico City have ar...
Dollar Drives Globe Slower
Commodity markets are weakening both due to higher interest rates depressing demand and slowed world trade, and because many are traded based on the dollar...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $9.03/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION African grain importers from Russia may find that business is easier as R...
Market Commentary: CBOT Stabilizes to Start Week; River Draft and Barge Rates Drive Export Outlook
The CBOT started the week on a mixed note with markets attempting to recover from the Grain Stocks report on Friday. Soybeans and the soy complex attempted...
Scrutiny on Foreign Owned Farmland
The issue of foreign owned farmland has been percolating since the Chinese entity Fufeng bought 370 acres in Nort Dakota, near the U.S. Airforce’s Gr...
Fertilizer Crisis
Fortunately, Hurricane Ian did not adversely impact Florida’s production of phosphate for crop production, but nitrogen remains a major supply concer...
Wheat Optics
The U.S. has six major classes of wheat, with Hard Red Winter (HRW) comprising more than 40 percent of the total. Analysts have noted that the 2022 HRW cro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.8075/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $9.12/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as other exchanges and analysts have done, lowered its wheat crop estimate to 17.5 MMT versus 20.5 MMT in its previo...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Bullish Corn, Bearish Soybeans; Wheat Rallies on USDA Production Cuts
The CBOT showed the volatility often characteristic of days when the Grain Stocks report is released. The report was bullish corn and wheat and bearish soy...
WTO Forum Misses Mark; Political Red Meat
WTO Forum Misses Mark WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is a well meaning leader who has correctly focused on some of the organization’s burea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $9.215/bushel, up $0.2525 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseeds Highlights - Snap Your Fingers, Snap Your Neck
The Market Soybeans were fighting their way back to breakeven for the week until USDA issued its quarterly stocks report midday and showed more product on...
Friday Overview: Hurricane Ian, Pigs, Fertilizer and Tariffs
Yesterday we covered the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report from USDA, which showed the U.S. swine herd hasn’t broken out of its down cycle; the Septembe...
Market Commentary: Holding Pattern
Two-sided, narrow trading continues as uncertainty competes with certainty over where true value is headed. In an almost hands off manner, soybeans failed...
Campaign Calling; White House Runs Through Unions
Campaign Calling Television broadcasting use to shutdown at 7pm. Congress would go on recess for the whole month of August and might not return to DC in an...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report: Further Contraction
USDA released a much anticipated quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for September today. At 73.8 million head, the total inventory as of 1 September followed t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.695/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.9625/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Feed Costs Continue to Surge Courtesy of rising costs for corn, corn byproducts, and soymeal, major feed mills announced another round of price h...
Export Sales
Export Sales for September 16-22, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 279,800 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for Guatemala (115,400 MT, includi...
Market Commentary: Two-Sided CBOT Trade Amid Macro-Market Volatility
The CBOT saw two-sided trade on Wednesday that was again heavily influenced by macro markets. Early weakness took corn and soybean futures below major tech...
Nutrition and Food Security; Coarse Politics Amidst War
Nutrition and Food Security Today’s White House Conference on Food, Nutrition and Health included the release of a national strategy aimed at ending...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.705/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $9.0325/bushel, up $0.3175 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 September 2022 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 22 September wheat production was 99.9 MMT of bunker we...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Again on Failed Macro Market Rally; Livestock Futures Selloff Accelerates
The CBOT and U.S. stocks both seemed ready to rally in early trade on Tuesday and both markets broadly marked strong gains in the morning. By early afterno...
Policy Roundup
Currency Crisis: The skyrocketing value of the dollar is a problem not just for U.S. exporters but other countries rich and poor alike. Japan is buying dol...
Rebuilding Butter
Surplus butter stocks are at their lowest level in years and its price has increased 80 percent faster than already inflated overall grocery prices. The ca...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.675/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.715/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. ...
Interest Rate Outlook Impact on Agriculture
Last week the Federal Reserve – by a unanimous vote – moved to increase the federal funds rate by another 75 basis points for the third consecu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran and Pakistan are expected to benefit from Azerbaijan lifting its exp...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Macroeconomic Weakness Again; GBP/USD Hits Record Low
The CBOT sold off once again amid pronounced pressure from outside macroeconomic markets. Last week’s Fed interest rate hike – the fastest sinc...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.6625/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.58/bushel, down $0.225 from yesterday's close.&nb...
South America’s Fertilizer Situation
Rabobank reports that fertilizer supplies will improve in 2023 with downward pressure on phosphate and potash prices, but nitrogen may see a 20-30 percent...
Competitive Advantage; Strife and Opportunity
Competitive Advantage DimSum reports how scaled up techo-farms currently represent only 20 percent of Chinese agricultural production but much the way that...
Second of Three Livestock Rules Unveiled
Today at a public meeting of the White House Competition Council, President Biden announced the second of three promised livestock marketing rules under th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The rains that fell across Argentina last week covered a good part of the wheat-growing area, but the accumulated water was very little so soil moist...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls Sharply on Macro-Market “Risk Off” Trade and USD Rally
Friday’s trade was less about grain market fundamentals than it was “risk off” trade from a meltdown in financial and energy markets. The...
Cattle on Feed Report Predicts the Future
USDA released its monthly cattle on feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 11.3 million, which is slightly above September 2021...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.7675/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.805/bushel, down $0.3025 from yesterday's close.&...
Oilseed Highlights - Stopping Soybeans
The Market With the September WASDE fully absorbed, the trade turned its attention to central banks boosting interest rates to crush inflation but at the s...
Market Commentary: Involuntary Movement
When markets reach equilibrium with little new demonstrative information, you get days like today. The trades move up slightly or down a little and look li...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview; Policy Discussion Not Keeping Up with Market
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 September 100 per...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.8825/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $9.1075/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales for September 9 to 15, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 183,500 metric tons (MT) for 2022 Corn: Net sales of 182,300 MT for 2022 Soybeans:...
Originalism on WTO DSP
USTR Katherine Tai convened the first of what may be a series of meetings with key WTO counterparts on reform of the dispute settlement process (DSP). The...
Market Commentary: Wheat Edges Higher as Putin Signals War Escalations; Corn, Soybeans Fall on Harvest Weather
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week with wheat futures continuing to see support from the pending votes in Ukraine about whether four regions will join Russia...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Costs See Another Big Jump in August Food prices across China rose by 6.1 percent last month, marking the second straight increase of m...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.855/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $9.0375/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
Alt Meat Investment; Alt Food Security; Backward Subsidies
Alt Meat Investment U.S. beef producers reacted to President Biden’s Executive Order calling for “Advancing Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing...
Rain More Important than Area
Iraq intends to expand the area planted to wheat by 20 percent, but production may not follow. But like much of the Middle East, wheat output is highly dep...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 September 2022 As of 15 September, Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 132...
Market Commentary: Russia’s Annexation Effort Creates Turnaround Tuesday at CBOT
The CBOT rallied sharply on Tuesday with Russia’s actions in Ukraine again at the forefront of the market’s mind. Russia is trying to annex fou...
Future of the RFS 2023 and Beyond
2023 marks a major shift in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). From the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act until this year, the annual required volu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.92/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.9375/bushel, up $0.6325 from yesterday's close. ...
Pretty but Limited
The U.S. grows less than 2 percent of the world’s rapeseed, but some think this will change. This past winter and spring, canola was called a popular...
Siloed Everywhere; U.S. Agriculture’s Future
Siloed Everywhere International trade has become moral, geopolitical, and nationalistic, and so has local commerce. Global trade is now based on perc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt announced that Suez Canal fees for bulk vessels will be increased b...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls on Ukraine Exports; Soybeans Strengthen on Chinese Buying
The CBOT started this week with an apparent reversal of last week’s trends. Wheat futures were on the defensive, thanks to more shipments from Ukrain...
Federal Budget Clock Ticking
Both houses of Congress were back in session last week; the House is scheduled to be in until 30 September and the Senate until 26 September. Congress will...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.7825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.305/bushel, down $0.2925 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The outlook for wheat continues to get more complicated with rains failing to arrive and temperatures beginning to rise, thus increasing the crop's w...
Policy Conflicts and Solutions; India Highlighted
Policy Conflicts and Solutions Policymakers are realizing that the three big issues of climate change, sustainability and food security are conflicting. Th...
Food Inflation Extremes
The World Bank’s food security update notes that the agricultural price index rose one percent from August to September. Food inflation is high in lo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.7725/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.5975/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Plains, Argentine Dryness; Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower on Slow Exports
Friday’s trade was largely all about macroeconomic markets with traders showing little interest in adding risk to portfolios as the U.S. stock market...
Fewer Milk Cows, Higher Feed Price, and Spotty Supply Boosting Butter
USDA’s dairy product price outlook was increased due to a decreasing cow herd. The forecast for the average number of milk cows in 2022 has been lowe...
Undermining Justice; Slothful Process; Oilseed Apartheid
Undermining Justice The U.S. Justice Department announced it was dismissing two more price fixing cases against poultry companies. This follows two other c...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Central Government Takes More Steps to Rein in Pork Prices Following the auction of frozen reserved pork last week, China’s National Develo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseeds Highlights: Spike Followed by Slow Slide
WASDE Shocker This week started with a bang and ended on a whimper. November soybeans rallied 76 cents/bushel after USDA’s September WASDE report on...
Market Commentary: Limited Influences
It was quiet in the overnight trade as everyone awaited the first USDA Export Sales report of the month, and when that was issued it was still quiet as the...
WOTUS Volatility; G7 Dreams
WOTUS Volatility The White House is reviewing EPA’s latest attempt to definitively define the waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) for regulatory purposes unde...
Livestock Roundup: Rail Strike Diverted, Beef Prices about to Turnaround
The rail strike appears to have been diverted. That is a relief to ag markets, and to the livestock, poultry and dairy sector – especially those segm...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.775/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.45/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Wheat Grinds Higher on Uncertain Ukraine Export Outlook; Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week amid a general lack of fresh news. Corn and soybeans both drifted lower in quiet trade and extended Tuesday’s pullback...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.8225/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.7225/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&n...
Trade Policy Shorts
IPEF Impact: Thirteen countries followed the U.S. lead in launching the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework negotiations. However, the biggest market potential...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 September 2022 As of 7 September, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 125...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed After Dollar Rallies on Inflation Data
With the September WASDE now past, the CBOT largely entered consolidation mode on Tuesday with a renewed focus on weather as yields are finalized, export d...
CPI Report Higher than Expected; Everything Up but Gas, Beef, and Pork
Inflation rose at 0.1 percent in August, against the market’s expectation of a 0.1 percent drop. For the year, inflation is up 8.3 percent since Augu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.9275/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.605/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&n...
Backing Strikers
The Biden Administration is reportedly making contingency plans in case rail workers go on strike. Some point out that the President has the power to force...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran’s government increased the purchase price of local wheat, to t...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for the domestic soybean crop in 2022/23 is reduced in the September WASDE. Harvested area is down 0.6 million from the August forecas...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for the domestic corn crop in 2022/23 is reduced in the September WASDE. U.S. corn production for 2022/23 was adjusted to 13.9 billion...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for the domestic wheat crop in 2022/23 in unchanged in the September WASDE. The projected 2022/23 seasonal average farm price is lower...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rally as WASDE Surprises with Lower Yields and Carry-Out
The September WASDE is typically one of the most volatile reports of the year with USDA’s “objective yield” assessments of corn and soybe...
WASDE Forecast Extends Bullish Outlook for Cattle
Today’s Word Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report marginally increased its forecast by 0.2 percent for total red meat and poultry p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.96/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.5875/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...
Local Sham Reprise; Generating Regenerative; Flogging Large Farms; Derriere Biting Policy
Local Sham Reprise USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, proving you can’t teach an old dog new tricks, is back with a reprise of the Eat Local mantra he cheer...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat markets – and much of the world – remains focused on the weather issues plaguing the new crop, which will be harv...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.85/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.695/bushel, up $0.405 from yesterday's close. N...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Russia/Turkey Export Discussion, Falling USD; Bullish WASDE Looms
The CBOT turned higher on the final full day of trading before the September WASDE is released at Noon ET on Monday. Wheat futures led the way as the marke...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseeds Highlights: Big Day on Monday
Market Value A late week rally that pulled soybeans back above the 50-day moving average of $14/bushel was not enough to prevent an overall down week for c...
California Prop 12 Final Regs to go Before SCOTUS
The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) has finalized the implementing rules for Proposition 12 regarding animal confinement regulation. T...
Ongoing Sideways
Putin’s threats to Ukraine’s exports dominated yesterday’s trading, together with concerns about macroeconomic contraction, but both issu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.685/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.29/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Manufactured Crisis
Politicians blamed Covid and now Putin for the crisis in food and energy, but they have been just as complicit in the ongoing shortfalls. All industries, i...
Livestock Roundup: HPAI Watch
With fall and colder weather coming, so does the threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) re-emerging as wild fowl start to migrate again. As we...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Russian Export Comments; Corn, Soybeans Reject Early Rally
The CBOT mostly drifted lower in lackluster trade overnight until Russia’s President Putin made comments that hinted the country has few intentions o...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock NRDC Sets Meeting With Hog Industry to Discuss Market Stability China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will hold a priva...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.71/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.4425/bushel, up $0.2725 from yesterday's close. ...
Best Trade Bargain
Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal says that India would be “happy and willing” to negotiate a trade agreement with the U.S. Am...
Russia Ignores Fungability
Russia is complaining that Ukraine’s grain exports are not going to poor countries, undermining the intent of the grain corridor agreement. There is...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: August–2 September 2022 Grain markets were volatile. While global markets remain bullish, Russian traders are still speculatin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.76/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.17/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. No...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Dry Weather; Argentine “Soy Dollar” Pressures Soy Complex
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with a weekend of dry weather offering support to the corn market and sparking a 10-cent rally in that commodity. Conv...
Political Fallout; Unions and Productivity
Political Fallout USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said yesterday, “Candidly, our view — and I’ve expressed this to EU officials — our vi...
Alfalfa's Disappointment
In 2012, global trade in alfalfa hit 1.7 MMT and there was great optimism that it would continue to grow as a valuable forage crop. In fact, it hit the mil...
Reading the Economic Tea Leaves
There has been some underlying positive economic news starting to emerge from the August data, though given the unprecedented nature of the economic disrup...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Sri Lanka’s Minister of Trade says there is no reason for wheat flo...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 5 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. As a result, we will not upda...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Light Volume Before Long Weekend; Cattle Rally on Post-Holiday Demand Outlook
The CBOT bounced higher heading into the long, holiday weekend, but trading volume was anemic as many traders apparently decided to head home for a four-da...
Oilseeds Highlights: Becoming More Competitive
Futures Market While today’s trading session was a bit of a recovery it still left the week with overall declines for soybeans and soy products. A lo...
Farm Bill: 2023 or 2024?
Congress will return to session after the August recess in the coming weeks, the Senate next week and the House the following week. They will be in session...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.6575/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.11/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Bearish Pressures
The markets opened lower and then turned deeper red as the session wore on. Much of the pressure was from outside markets, plus caution ahead of the three-...
Livestock Round Up: New Beef Packing Capacity Announced
So far this month, two notable announcements were made about new beef packing capacity. These come after much of 2020 saw criticism about the nature of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.58/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.9425/bushel, down $0.3725 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower on Economic Worries while Wheat Makes Seasonal Gains
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures continuing their slow rally while soybeans and soymeal continue to fall, despite fresh soybean export sa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.705/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.315/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Remain Firm as Fall Holidays Near China’s domestic hog prices continued to rally here in the second half of August. The nat...
Treasure Your Agribusiness
In their report, “China's Import Potential for Beef, Corn, Pork, and Wheat,” Economic Research Service analysts correctly note that the Middle...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 August 2022 Russia’s harvest continues with grain production, as of 25 August, at 78.9 MMT which is up 24.8 percent from...
Eggs and Corn
Poultry and poultry products are among the most efficient converters of grain into animal protein products. The feed conversion ratio (FCR) for eggs at 2/1...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat End Lower in Turnaround Tuesday; Livestock Futures Rally on Technical Buying
After starting the week on a high note, the CBOT posted a “turnaround Tuesday” with corn and wheat giving back much of Monday’s gains. Th...
Broiler Meat Trying to Find a Balance
Broiler production struggled for much of the year to keep up with increased demand, especially the demand created by retail inflation and more substitution...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.7725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.2025/bushel, down $0.225 from yesterday's close...
Separation of Church and State; Scholz Encourages Trump
Separation of Church and State USDA announced a $300 million program to assist farmers in certifying organic. The agency notes that for years, organic has...
Wheat to Remain Tight
The current tight global wheat market is a dynamic that is here to stay. For the most recent five years, global wheat consumption has increased by 7 percen...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh semi-official reports say that a wheat import agreement for 50...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.4275/bushel, up $0.375 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Yield Concerns; Wheat Surges 30 Cents on Ukrainian Offensive
CBOT grain markets were higher to start the week while the soy complex drifted lower amid little fresh news and a lack of international buying interest. Co...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is finally finished and, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, total production reached 52 MMT, down 3 MMT from...
Will California’s Gasoline Motor Ban Eliminate One Third of National Gas and Ethanol Demand?
Last week, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) finalized a rule that will outlaw the sale of gas-fueled cars by 2035. The plan is phased in requiring...
Food for the Illiterate; Contract Sanctity for Energy
Food for the Illiterate Deceptive food marketing is rampant because it is successful. However, the most belittling approach is the little words campaign. F...
Real Climate Impact
Climate change is being blamed for drought limited grain crops this year, but tree nuts are a better example. Weather has caused volatility in grain market...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Week on High Note; ProFarmer Yields Revive Bullish Corn Story
The CBOT rallied to end the week with strong commercial buying early in the day that gave way to some fund buying in expectation of ProFarmer’s yield...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights - On a Roll
Crop Progress USDA’s Crop Progress report lowered the share of soybeans in the combined Good/Excellent category by one point to 57 percent, but that...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.6425/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.0525/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close.&nb...
A View of Monetary Policy and the Economy from Jackson Hole
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his address to the Federal Reserve’s annual policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It was short...
Market Commentary: Backtracking
After a run up in recent days over drought in the U.S., bad news from a major crop tour, plus drought in Europe and China, there was profit taking today as...
Livestock Round Up: U.S. and Canada Livestock Inventory
Details of the combined U.S. and Canadian cattle and swine herds were released yesterday. The cattle data is based on the semi-annual inventory as of 1 Jul...
Government Money is Complicated
President Joe Biden is handing out what could be $600 billion in student loan forgiveness just before an election. Critics argue about its fairness, and it...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.5/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.89/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.5725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.1325/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Pare Gains While Waiting for Iowa, Illinois Yield Estimates
CBOT corn and wheat gave back most or all of Tuesday’s gains as the latest weather forecasts offer better chances of rain and cooler weather heading...
Drought and Rice
Although several crops are at risk due to the drought in southern China, rice is said to be the most at risk. This is because almost half the country&rsquo...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock New Market Reports Reveal Interesting Trends in the Hog Sector The most recent data release from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (M...
Nutrition Policy Dreams
Next month is the White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition and Health and there are a lot of nutrition problems in America to solve. The country is fat,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 15-19 August 2022 Russia’s harvest continues. As of 11 August, grain production showed 75.5 MMT harvested, which is up...
Market Commentary: Crop Tour Yields Send Corn Sharply Higher; Soybeans, Wheat Follow
Tuesday’s CBOT trade was all about declining crop conditions and crop tour yield estimates. Both were supportive factors, which sent corn 4+ percent...
China to Keep Buying
Food self-sufficiency is China’s policy goal but Anna Czenthe with the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies points o...
Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Respond to Dropping of CVD/AD Case
As the 2022 harvest approaches, farmers are already making plans for the 2023 crop with an outlook toward more potential volatility, especially on margins...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Libya imports about 90 percent of its grain needs every year with total i...
Ag Ahead of Other Merchandise
The OECD reported that Q2 2022 global merchandise trade “slowed markedly” with exports and imports up 2.1 percent and 2.6 percent, respectiveyl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Higher as Stocks Fall Ahead of Fed Meeting
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with corn and soybeans finding continued support from their pricing strength uncovered at the end of last week. Bu...
Killing the Golden Goose; Pandering False Narratives
Killing the Golden Goose USTR Katherine Tai has been scoring victories against Mexico’s AMLO when it comes to organized labor issues under the USMCA,...
Inflation Reduction Act Agricultural Provisions
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), also officially known as the Budget Reconciliation bill and unofficially as the mini-Build Back Better bill, has been pa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.29/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.8825/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. ...
Ignoring Half the Market
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack told Iowa corn farmers last week that, “I pointed out to the President (AMLO in Mexico) that he’s also deeply concer...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The old crop wheat market remained quiet last week. On the sell-side, the government’s allowed export quota seems to be practically committed a...
Cattle on Feed
USDA reported U.S. Cattle on Feed was 1 percent above year ago – for a totaled of 11.2 million head on August 1, 2022. Placements in feedlots d...
Market Commentary – Lower for the Week
Modest volumes were traded today, except HRW and Lean Hogs where there was some added play. For the week overall, the bears were in charge with weather and...
Cattle on Feed: July Placements Up, Marketings Down
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 11.2 million, 101 percent above August 2021, and in l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.2325/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.71/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. N...
Oilseeds Highlights – Larger Supplies
Prices Soybeans and coproducts futures prices closed out this week with lower prices: November Soybeans: -50.25 cents to end at 1404/bushel December Soymea...
Market Commentary: Wheat Down Again; Rest Rangebound
Weather and Ukraine remain bearish factors in agricultural markets. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited Ukraine today and highlighted that 21 shi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1575/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.49/bushel, down $0.315 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Discriminatory Trade to Hit Ag; High Standard Redefined
Discriminatory Trade to Hit Ag The Inflation Reduction Act increases taxes and spending but also invites retaliation against U.S. agricultural exports. Agr...
Export Sales
Export Sales for August 5-11, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 207,200 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were down 42 percent from the previous...
Livestock Round Up: COF Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 August at 100.8 p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.12/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.805/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Bad Day for Wheat
It was a somewhat volatile open but there was one certainty – wheat was going down. Joined by soyoil. Lower wheat weighed on corn, which hung on for...
Western Currency Dominance
Western sanctions have bolstered interest by China and Russia in creating a third reserve currency to challenge the dollar and the euro. There is discussio...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Rising Feed Costs and Hot Temperatures Force Some to Sell Hogs Here in August average feedstuff prices have continued to climb as a result of hig...
Russian Wheat Price Moves Lower
The consultancy Sovecon this week increased its estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 94.7 MMT. That is 7.6 percent more than USDA's guess at 88 MMT and if...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 August 2022 The harvest in Russia continues. Some areas in the south are entering the final stage and producing a record crop...
Market Commentary: The Good and the Bad
Yesterday’s steep losses in the futures market was followed by a lower close overnight that fed today’s narrative for yet still more declines i...
Pivot to Latin America
Washington made a famous “pivot to Asia” in 2012 under the Obama Administration. The rise of China and a realization that 60 percent of the wor...
COVID and Inflation Boosting Home Cooking
One of the significant impacts of the COVID pandemic was its effect on the balance of food demand between retail grocery and food service. This was particu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1025/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.86/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Ongoing Shortages
A French fry shortage is now expanding into a tomato shortage. The U.S. production of potatoes had been expanding even as the acres harvested declined due...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Lebanon officially rejected the first shipment of 26,000 MT of corn from...
Market Commentary: Rains, Cool Weather Pressures Corn, Soybeans; China Economic Data Sparks Worries
Despite Friday’s bullish, post-WASDE turnaround, the CBOT posted steep losses on Monday with corn and soybeans leading the way. Ag futures markets we...
Hay Supplies Will Continue to Pressure Cattle
With Friday’s WASDE and crop production reports there was much attention, rightfully so, on corn and soybean yields. However, an important metric pot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.2825/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&...
Agriculture Key in Presidential Races; Philosophical Fight Over Farm Spending
Agriculture Key in Presidential Races Current Kenyan Trade Minister Betty Maina this week said her country’s goals ‘haven’t changed&rsquo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued at full speed and reached 90 percent of the expected harvested area. Despite rains that fell last week, the w...
Meat Price Machinations
Meat prices have been distorted ever since COVID struck and the contortions continue despite the pandemic now being considered endemic. The pandemic itself...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: USDA forecast U.S. soybean production for 2022/23 at 4.53 billion bushels, up 26 million - higher yields more than offset lower harvested area; H...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA forecast U.S. corn production for 2022/23 at 14.4 billion bushels, down 146 million from the July projection. The season’s fir...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in wint...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Surprises and Questions Linger Going Forward
The CBOT was strictly focused on the August WASE in Friday’s trade. Price action before the USDA’s noon report featured quiet, weaker spread tr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...