Beef demand in East Asia is on a long-term trend upward. Fulfilling this demand has required increased imports, primarily from Australia, Brazil, and the U...
Articles
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Bangladesh poultry industry leaders have asked the government to help their suffering industr...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Fall Under Bearish WASDE Expectations; Cattle Trade Starts Week Strong
The CBOT was mixed to start WASDE week with the soy complex pushing lower under the threat of larger yield projections, which pulled corn lower too. Wheat...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.515/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.68/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Blame the Golden Goose; Sour Mystery; Port Protectionism
Blame the Golden Goose The COP26 meeting in Glasgow continues this week and developing nations are demanding that rich countries compensate them for climat...
Infrastructure Bill Headed to President’s Desk
The House of Representatives passed the bipartisan infrastructure bill late Friday; the legislation had already passed the Senate in August, so the package...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentine farmers have harvested 680,000 hectares of wheat, which equates to 10.5 percent of the planted area. Rains fell during the last two weeks b...
Crop Winners and Losers
USDA issued its annual, departmental consensus, ten-year outlook for U.S. agriculture that may be viewed as the winners and losers for the decade ahead. Wi...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s farmers have planted 90 percent of the 7.1 Mha of winter crops, including 6.1 Mha of wheat and 0.844 Mha of winter barl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Correction Continues; Cash Wheat Strong Despite Futures’ Decline
The CBOT ended the week on a down note with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all posting losses for the day. Corn and wheat attempted to rally early in the...
Wrong Subsidies; Net-Zero; Obvious Taxes
Wrong Subsidies Green groups remind us constantly that small, extensive agriculture is better for the environment than are large “corporate” fa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.53/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.665/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&n...
Takeaways from Economic Data Reports
There has been a plethora of economic data reports this first week of November, plus a Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) meeting of the Federal Reserve...
Market Commentary: Higher Open Quickly Collapses
Most markets opened higher but very shortly thereafter most collapsed and by the end of the session, only lean hogs eked out a net gain. The flip was influ...
Livestock Round Up: Beef and Butter for the Holidays
As of today, week to date cattle slaughter is 99.7 percent of the same period last week. Last Thursday, we speculated that last week’s slaughter &ldq...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5925/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.7375/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close...
COP26 Fallout; China Calls Bluff?; Right to Food Quirkiness
COP26 Fallout The Global Alliance for the Future of Food complains that most of the Nationally Determined Contribution plans they examined for meeting COP2...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales Highlights; Brazilian Soybeans Priced Below U.S.; Egypt Buys Sunoil Instead of Soyoil
U.S. Soy Export Sales Today’s USDA export sales report indicated last week was good for exporters of U.S. soybeans and soymeal. Export sales of soybe...
Export Sales
Export data for October22-28, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 400,100 metric tons (MT) for2021/2022 were up 49 percent from the previous week and 4 p...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower in Consolidation, Profit Taking; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT ended lower Wednesday as profit taking and risk-off trade occurred ahead of next week’s WASDE report. World ag markets were overbought after...
Wrong Question; Worse to Come; Cows Exempt
Wrong Question In the 1980 presidential campaign just before Thanksgiving, inflation was soaring, and Iran held American diplomats’ hostage. Candidat...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.64/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.81/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...
Beer Pressures
Global supply chain issues are pressuring many industries, but beer makers face a complex set of issues. Prices have risen for malt barley, aluminum, labor...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices Down Again in September The impact of cratering live hog prices in September showed up in the recent monthly data release from C...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25-29 October 2021 Average prices on the Russian grain market mainly grew. Exporters had to decrease their bid prices on the domesti...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Reverse on Fund Buying Slowdown; Soy Complex Higher on Meal Rally
The CBOT traded to new highs overnight with funds remaining active buyers while Paris milling wheat futures hit a new all-time high for the spot contract o...
House Ag Committee Supply Chain Hearing
Tomorrow, the House Agriculture Committee, will hold a hearing on “The Immediate Challenges to our Nation’s Food Supply Chain” – i...
Transatlantic Agriculture’s Beating; Hemispheric Interloping; COP26 Newspeak
Transatlantic Agriculture’s Beating In the name of beating both China and climate change, U.S. and EU agriculture confront a diminished future. China...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.73/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.915/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Soymeal Crush versus Exports
Over the past decade, the soybean crush in the top ten countries has increased by nearly 37 percent. Over that same period, soymeal exports amongst the top...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Cyprus' government has set aside €9 million for the support of animal farmers who are su...
Market Commentary: Fund Buying Fuels Contract Highs in Wheat and a Corn Rally
The start of the new month saw funds return to the CBOT as net buyers, chasing corn and wheat higher during today’s rally. Funds were aggressive buye...
Bullish Ethanol Production
USDA released the September Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 2 percent from August, but up 1 percent from September 2...
Green Tumult; Conflicts over China
Green Tumult Going green isn’t easy because it changes the winners and losers, and that means going green isn’t happening without a fight. Euro...
Year of the Pulse
The International Grains Council (IGC) announced that it will include pulses in its definition of grains and expand market information on these products. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.79/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.9725/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite drought in Argentina that came during the early phases of the wheat crop, rains appeared during the critical yield-defining periods and boost...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The International Grains Council left its forecast of world wheat production unchanged at 781 MMT for 2021/22, but increased the world...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies to End Strong Week; Hogs Rally while Cattle Fall
Corn and wheat futures were higher again on Friday, but volume was waning as funds slowed their buying pace. The soy complex saw continued but mild strengt...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.6825/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.7275/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Private R&D Leads; Energy Confusion
Private R&D Leads Proponents of public sector agricultural R&D have typically touted the high rate of return on such investments and lamented that...
Competitive Wheat Suppliers
Global wheat bids and offers were more closely aligned at the beginning of 2021 and then splintered as Northern Hemisphere crops became available in the Ma...
Tens of Billions for Ag Conservation Programs in Reconciliation Package
We’ve covered the up-and-down, back-and-forth process of the budget reconciliation bill, and by extension the bipartisan infrastructure package that...
Market Commentary: Defying the Calls
The market opened as called but the grains could not be held down for long. By mid-session corn and wheat were back held aloft by trusting bulls despite an...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Market Up on Tighter Supply and Demand Balance
Cattle markets have gained support of late. Foremost, this week’s slaughter, as of today, is running 6,000 head above last week. Last week was...
Right Target
The U.S. and EU attacked China’s subsidies at the WTO’s trade policy review of Beijing’s practices. Not only does China have huge state s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.6275/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.725/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; China Soy Crush; Brazilian Soy; Inefficient Ports
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated that in the week ending 21 October, exporters of U.S. soybeans and so...
Export Sales
Exporters for the period October15-21, 2021. Wheat - Net sales of 269,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 26 percent from the previous week...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Ethanol, End-User Buying; World Ag Markets Strengthen
The CBOT ended mostly higher for the day with ethanol production data and end-user buying supporting corn futures overnight and during Wednesday morning&rs...
Long Answer to Short; No Wiggle Room; Prescriptive Eating
Long Answer to Short WTO Deputy Director-General Angela Ellard explained the role of international trade in addressing climate change at a meeting of &ldqu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.495/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Volatility in Pistachios
The U.S. first displaced Iran as the world’s leading producer of pistachios in 2012 and for the past four years it has not even been a contest. Iran&...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock New Data Show Regional Production Trends As noted last week, Q3 data show total hog inventory and reproductive sow inventories stood at 437.6 mil...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 October 2021 Average prices on the Russian grain market moved in different directions. Key factors pushing prices down again w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.495/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: Trouble Brewing in China Grains and CME Hogs; Wheat Reverses while Corn Rallies
“Mixed” is the word for the CBOT/CME trade on Tuesday with wheat forming technical reversals and settling lower while corn posted strong techni...
Tech City on a Hill; Distance Warms Heart
Tech City on a Hill Some nationalistic political philosophers like to characterize the U.S. as a beacon of hope for democratic ideals and while some will s...
Biden Agenda on Capitol Hill a Game of Political Whack-A-Mole
It’s a critical week on Capitol Hill, both for the Biden Administration’s agenda and more generally, breaking the legislative log jam. First, t...
Shift in Food Inflation Impact
Since agricultural commodities are fungible and tradeable, no region of the world is immune to global price pressures. However, the impact of food price ch...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iran is reported to be the largest buyer of grain from Russia in the first three months of MY...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rally Holds; Vegoils Support Soy Complex; Cattle Firm After COF Report
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with KC wheat holding Friday’s contract-high gains and soybeans rallying on export inspections data and...
Food Inflation Forecast
USDA released its monthly food inflation outlook this morning. First, it’s worth noting the relative weight that each category gets in contributing t...
Hoodwinked by Mexico; Silly Diplomacy; Carbon Outlook
Hoodwinked by Mexico USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack’s announcement last week that Mexican Agriculture Secretary Victor Villalobos assured him that U.S. y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Exporters have already bought 8 MMT of the 2021/22 crop, out of an export surplus that should be at least 12 MMT, given a 21-MMT crop. Over the past...
Notable TFP Changes
U.S. Secretary for Agriculture Tom Vilsack and EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski will be on the stage together next week at the Forum for th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission reported that the favorable weather conditions across most of Europe “allowed farmers to make good progress&rdq...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. was 1 percent below October 1, 2020. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Cattle on Feed: Surprise (Kind of, but Not Really) on Placements
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today showing a total inventory of cattle and calves in feed yards of 11.6 million head on 1 October. That...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.38/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.56/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close. ...
Sustainability Impacts; Sustainability Lingo
Sustainability Impacts Policymakers brandishing climate change and sustainability as their objectives may find adverse impacts hitting their home markets h...
Shifting Protein Consumption
By far, Americans consume more animal protein than either China or the EU, but the composition is different. The Chinese and Europeans consume more pork pe...
Market Commentary: Downside of Up
Markets have their ups and downs and today was the downside of up. After pretty much adding points for the last several days, today was a modest correction...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview
Tomorrow USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. Analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 October a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3225/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Read My Lips; Trickle Down Policy; Red Threat
Read My Lips Former U.S. President George H.W. Bush infamously assured voters that he would not raise taxes by saying, “Read my lips.” Once ele...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; China Soy Stocks; New Renewable Diesel Facility
U.S. Soybean Export Sales and Exports Continue to Surge Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report confirmed exporters are seeing surging sales of soybeans...
Export Sales
Exports are for October 8-14, 2021 Wheat: Net sales of 362,400 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 36 percent from the previous week and 6 perce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.4925/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Breaks Resistance, Soy Complex Rallies; Lean Hogs Break Support
The CBOT was higher overnight with wheat and the soy complex leading the way. European wheat and rapeseed futures were also stronger, creating spillover bu...
Actions Louder than Words; China Faces WTO
Actions Louder than Words The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released in August and the associated COP26 me...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Financial Reports Show Top Hog Producers Had Rough Q3 Last week, several major domestic hog producers, also known as “Pork Concept” c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 October 2021 The average prices on the Russian grain market showed minimal growth. One of the main factors preventing further...
Pick Your Poison
Over the past decade, pesticide sales in Europe have declined by 7 percent. At the same time, organic production has expanded at 5.5 percent a year and now...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Higher on China Buying Rumors, Soymeal Short Covering; Grains End Mixed
The CBOT was mixed Tuesday with wheat leading the way higher overnight but with the day session seeing increased weakness in grains while oilseeds rallied...
Au Contraire; Presidential Absence; Limits of Transparency
Au Contraire U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said this past weekend that passing President Biden’s infrastructure package is the solutio...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.36/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Sorghum Dominance
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is the largest sorghum producing region in the world, growing nearly 44 percent of global output. Yet it exports and imports only...
How Much of Ag Spending Could be Dropped from Reconciliation?
Congress is back in session this week and the White House is reaching out to Democratic lawmakers to scale back the Biden $3.4 trillion “Build Back B...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhara Holdings announced plans to build five animal feed facilities in E...
Market Commentary: CBOT Attention Turns to Demand
The CBOT opened mixed with corn and soybeans steady/lower while wheat saw higher trade on tightening global supplies. That early weakness, however, was mos...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.3625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...
Creeping Toward CPTPP
President Biden said he would first build back America’s infrastructure before re-engaging the U.S. in trade agreements. It should be noted that his...
Food Inflation: At Home versus Away from Home
Food inflation continues to be a hot topic. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the consumer price index (CPI) for September. The food index...
Explaining Consumption
Pig meat producers in Europe are suffering the smallest profits in a decade. Reasonable explanations include the impacts of higher feed costs and the loss...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Iran’s grain supply association stated it expects to import 8 MMT of wheat this year due to supply shortages in the country. Much...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Rumors about a non-official agreement between the government and exporters to cap Argentina’s export sales at 38.5 MMT have been circu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Export Sales
Export data for October 1-7,2021. Wheat: Net sales of 567,600 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 70 percent from the previous week and 42 p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2575/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Notable Push Higher
Markets pushed higher for the most part a second day in row, boost by a competitive pricing situation and strong exports. Funds have had to reverse the sel...
High-Cost Energy/Ag Inputs Forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its winter fuels outlook last week, forecasting rising prices for several key agricultural inputs...
F2F Proxy; Rolling Inflation; Selective View of Tensions
F2F Proxy Greens in Europe have been downplaying the impact on production from reduced use of inputs, arguing that studies showing lower production are fla...
Market Commentary: Hosanna High
After several days of closing lower it was an upside day for everything but lean hogs. Yesterday’s selloff and a long stream of red led to an oversol...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2475/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
Inflation’s Sentinel – Labor Fight; Linkages and Watering; USMCA Lesson
Inflation’s Sentinel – Labor Fight The IMF’s chief economist has opined that stagflation is not a risk and JP Morgan’s influential...
Turkey, Ham or Beef for Thanksgiving?
Thanksgiving is about 40 days away; retailers have been ordering turkey and soon distribution will get underway. Last year, with COVID resulting in smaller...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Stocks; Another Soy Crush Plant; China Vegoil Imports; India Tariffs
USDA WASDE Report Substantially Loosens Soy Supply/Demand Situation Only a few days after USDA raised its estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks in 2020/2...
Market Commentary: Funds Selling Pressures Corn, Soy, and Wheat; Argentina’s GM Wheat Issue Evolves
The CBOT found ample follow-through selling on yesterday’s bearish October WASDE with funds turning into large sellers in corn, soybeans, and –...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1225/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1875/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Futures Stage Rally as Cash Prices Continue to Tank With the conclusion of China’s National Day Holiday last Thursday, the live ho...
False Falsehoods; Underwhelming Mush
False Falsehoods The environmentalists in Europe are accusing the farm lobby of falsehoods and “underhand tactics” to undermine the impending F...
Vegetable Oil Volatility
Although global vegetable oil prices have moderated from their peaks this past spring, they remain substantially elevated above historic values. However, c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 October 2021 The average price on the Russian grain market continued to grow but the price increases were minimal. One of the ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Record U.S. Soy Crop Pressures Futures; Ending Stocks Grow for Corn, Fall for Wheat
The CBOT opened on the defensive heading into the WASDE with traders bracing for bearish numbers. The soy complex led the way lower with a 2 percent decrea...
Land Utilization Changes
A coalition of agriculture groups has proposed paying farmers $100/acre to implement climate-smart practices. The total price tag of $40 billion a year is...
WASDE Protein Forecasts: Margins Not Enough to Motivate Roosters
Today’s WASDE reduced the forecast for red meat and poultry production slightly from the September forecast with higher cow slaughter from culling be...
Limits of Leverage; Price of Opaqueness; Goldilocks Climate Policy
Limits of Leverage The livestock industry is awaiting word from the U.S. Supreme Court on whether it will hear its challenge to California’s Prop 12...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The World Bank estimates that MENA region economies have been affected by about $200 billion...
Market Commentary: Expected WASDE Yield Increases Pressure CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower in quiet trade with the federal government, most banks, and bond markets closed for the Columbus Day holiday. Trading volume was...
Long-Term Outlook: Watching Farm Program Enrollment
USDA will publish the October WASDE tomorrow. The market will be watching for changes in the corn and soybean yield estimates and what that means for endin...
Land Rents Smooth Sector
There is much angst that more than half of cropland in the U.S. is rented, with the usual opprobrium involving farmers at the mercy of landlords, and landl...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat GM Wheat Saga Continues Argentina’s lone GM wheat variety (HB4 wheat from Bioceres) continues to generate polemic from various outside interest...
How Sweet It Isn't
Global sugar consumption has now paced below the population growth rate for three years in a row. After dipping sharply in 2019, per capita consumption con...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt’s GASC purchased 240,000 MT of wheat (25 percent Romanian and 75 percent Russian) last week for shipment for 11-20 November...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.305/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Rally Falters; Wheat Tries to Define Range; Corn Quiet Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT was mostly lower in mixed trade on Friday with an early soyoil rally supporting soybeans while corn and wheat edged lower. Profit taking developed...
We’ve Already Got More than $3 Trillion Stimulus – Without the Pending Bill
Congress has passed a continuing resolution to keep the government open until 3 December. The Senate has passed a temporary debt ceiling increase whic...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodit...
India’s Opportunity; Mexico’s Loss; Meat of the Issue
India’s Opportunity Sometime next year India will promulgate its next five-year Foreign Trade Policy (FTP). Based on the past five years, India has b...
Oats of Course
The December 2021 futures contract on oats is up over 72 percent since the beginning of the year and may yet surge higher. The volume traded in recent days...
PM Post - Meal Drags
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 higher Dec meal: .50 lower Dec soyoil: 35 higher Dec corn: 1 higher Dec wheat: 1 higher The markets ope...
Technical Views - The Upshot
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.36c/bu while oilshare trades to new highs at 49.47%. Bean spreads are weaker as November contracts continue to roll for...
AM Outlook - Demand Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices were higher at the start of the PM session with beans and soyoil in the lead to the upside. Global vegoil prices remain lock-ste...
Market Commentary: Upside Down Day
Markets were higher overnight and were called for similar follow through this morning, but things did not initially go as planned. Instead, funds came out...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Record Meat Exports and Congressional Review of Livestock
Exports are driving red meat demand. August export data was released yesterday, and beef shipments were $1.04 billion for the month (a record for any month...
Biodiversity Killer; Desperate for a Deal; All for One; OECD China Platform
Biodiversity Killer The EU is mandating that 25 percent of agricultural production be organic. Member states are being told that organic brings social, eco...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices Fall Again, Pace Quickens as Cost of Pork Drops Further The steep drop in pork prices since mid-spring kicked into overdrive dur...
PM Post - Buy Wheat, Sell Corn
THE OPEN November beans: 3 lower December meal: 1.30 lower December soyoil: 25 higher December corn: 2 lower December wheat: 3 lower The...
Export Sales
Exporters for September 24-30, 2021 Wheat: Net sales of 333,200 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 15 percent from the previous week, but down 19...
AM Outlook - Trends Intact
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened close to home, higher for soy with some light profit-taking in wheat. All markets are higher heading into the close led b...
Market Commentary: Putin Pressures Energies; CBOT Ends Mixed; Commercials Book Soymeal
The CBOT was mixed in low-volume trade with corn and soybeans turning lower while wheat traded a volatile day and ended slightly higher. Energy markets wer...
MFN Hurdle; Sovereign Losers; Trade Policy Movement
MFN Hurdle German Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner is urging the European Commission to ensure that third countries with a trade agreement with Eur...
Ongoing Biofuel Demand
The U.S. Energy Information Agency published its latest forecast for energy use through 2050 and it foresees no slackening in demand. Its projection for de...
PM Post - Eyeing Next WASDE
THE OPEN November beans: 1 higher December meal: .30 higher December soyoil: 50 pts higher December corn: 3 higher December wheat:&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 September-1 October 2021 Pricing trends of the previous week persisted: wheat and barley domestic prices increased moderately in...
AM Outlook - Congestive, Constructive, Bearish, Friendly
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened fairly close to home with wheat again the firm trade out, and all else mixed to slightly lower. During the PM session, pr...
Technical Views - Rebound Higher
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.34c/bu, new highs, while oilshare trades 48.80%. Dec/March corn trades from 8c to 8 1/2c carry while the Dec 21/22 inve...
Market Commentary: Energies Surge, Send Soyoil Higher; Soybeans Post Reversal
The CBOT formed a Turnaround Tuesday with sharply higher energy prices supporting a bullish technical breakout for soyoil and pulled soybeans higher. The o...
Trade Prevails
There is much gnashing of teeth over the persistent burden of the pandemic on the world but the trade sector appears to have overcome it, and its associate...
Ethanol Exports Up in August, but Still Missing Brazil
After dropping in July to the lowest level since October 2013, August ethanol exports shot back up in August, increasing about 55 percent. However, the Aug...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.4475/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close...
Mounting Political Hurdles; Tai Speech Critique; Slow Shipping; Green Arising
Mounting Political Hurdles The metrics could change by 2022 but political analysts in Washington are citing a growing number of challenges for Presid...
PM Post - Soyoil Drives; Grains Relax
THE OPEN November beans: 1/4 higher Deceme meal: 2.00 lower December soyoil: 72 higher December corn: 3 1/2 lower December wheat:&n...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iran officials say 2021/22 wheat imports are expected to reach 8 MMT – three times last...
AM Outlook - Macro Pressures
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning, lower for everything but soyoil. Soyoil futures followed a strong performance by palm, which jumped to n...
Technical Views - Sliding
SPREADS Dec crush trades higher to 1.28c/bu while oilshare firms up to 47.54%. Dec/March corn trades out to 9c from 8 1/2c. Dec 21/22 inverse t...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Lower on Technical Weakness; Grains Firm; Crude Oil Hits Seven-Year High
The CBOT was mixed with continued weakness in the soy complex as soybeans and soymeal broke technical support levels. Soyoil traded a volatile day and ende...
Anomalous China Trade Year
The Biden Administration announced that it will ensure enforcement of the Phase One trade deal with China but that will not be much of a challenge when it...
Could Lack of Compliance with the Federal Employee COVID Vaccine Mandate Impact USDA Services?
As we reported last Thursday, the Senate passed a continuing resolution – i.e., a temporary funding bill to keep the government from shutting down at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.565/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Same Old with China; Mexico Plunges; Carbon Support
Same Old with China U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai detailed today how the Biden Administration would largely continue the status quo approach to C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest has started in the northern tip of the country, which was most affected by this year’s drought. Recently, hot t...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat World wheat prices continue to rally after USDA surprised the market with smaller-than-expected U.S. 2020/21 ending stocks last week. A...
PM Post - Good Inspections
THE OPEN November beans: 7 lower December meal: 1.40 lower December soyoil: 15 higher December corn: 3/4 lower December wheat: 6 hi...
AM Outlook - Grains Over Beans
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the PM session lower with corn prices slowly recovering led by wheat. Harvest proceeds forward as trading volumes...
Technical Views - Mostly Sideways
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.22c/bu while oilshare trades at 47.24%. Dec/March corn trades 8 1/4c to 8 1/2c, Dec 21/22 inverse trades down to...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rally and Soy Selloff Continue; Hogs Rest After $8 Weekly Gain
The CBOT largely followed the trends set yesterday by the Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports. Wheat rallied sharply and posted near-30-cent gain...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Lump of Coal; Outcomes Not Means
Lump of Coal About 17 countries plus the EU presently have national carbon pricing. Some countries are threatening border taxes to prevent so-called carbon...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.5525/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Disappearing Fertilizer Supply
On 26 July, WPI wrote about the Department of Commerce decision to consider countervailing duties (CVD) and anti-dumping duties (AD) on imports of urea amm...
Energy and GDP
Rising energy prices should have an impact on global GDP growth in 2021, though the ratio has been declining. Over the past 20 years, expenditures on energ...
PM Post - Buy Grains/Sell Soy
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: 1.60 higher December soyoil: 12 lower December corn: 6 higher December wheat: 12 higher T...
Technical Views - Post-Report Adjustments
SPREADS Dec crush trades higher to 1.11c/bu, which will incentivize crushers to do all they can. Oilshare trades higher to 47.0%. Dec/March cor...
AM Outlook - Two Potential Plays
GOOD MORNING, Prices for the soy complex are mixed, with beans lower, products trading both sides. Oilshare is seeing some profit-taking on the...
Market Commentary: Overplayed Then Corrected
The NASS stocks report initially felt like a bomb had dropped but after the trade assessed the situation with a clearer head, markets came back off their l...
Livestock Round Up: Pressure Release from Government Shutdown, Drought, ASF Threat, and Maybe Cattle Prices
The Senate passed, by a vote of 65-35, a temporary funding bill to keep the government from shutting down at midnight tonight, the last day of the fiscal y...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.255/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&n...
Practical Politics
Whether Buenos Aires or Washington, politicians are finding a practical middle to prevent all out failure. In Argentina, after a devastating blow ear...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Soybean Stocks; Palm Oil Price; ND Soy Crush Plant
U.S. Soy Export Sales and Exports Update Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters had a positive week selling U.S. soybeans for expor...
PM Post - Post-Report Adjustments
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 higher Dec meal: 1.60 lower Dec soyoil: 90 higher Dec corn: 4 higher Dec wheat: 9 higher The markets opened a...
Export Sales
USDA Reports for Sept 17-23, 2021: Wheat: Net sales of 290,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 19 percent from the previous week and 30 perc...
Technical Views - Mostly Firm
SPREADS Dec crush trades higher to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades firmer as well to 46.20%. Dec/March corn trades from 7 3/4c carry to 8c. Dec...
AM Outlook - Bears are Watching
GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to put on good rallies. Features overnight include higher oilshare and soyoil strength, (on the back of strong pal...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms in Pre-Grain Stocks Report Positioning
The CBOT ended higher on Wednesday after a mixed overnight session gave way to day-session gains. Outside markets recovered some of yesterday’s losse...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Pragmatism versus Philosophy; Big Pig
Pragmatism versus Philosophy Farmers are generally conservative when it comes to government, except when it involves benefits for themselves. This is playi...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Chinese Live Hog Market Facing More Challenges Despite recent market optimism that improved genetics and a better stream of ne...
Inflation Implications
Concerns about inflation exceeding transitory terms have increased in recent days but it was reported yesterday that inventories of consumer goods have sta...
Ag Review - September 2021
For 23 years, WPI’s monthly AgReview publication has provided in-depth analysis of markets and policy. Responding to changes in both business economi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 September 2021 Prices for grain crops (except for corn) in the domestic Russian market increased but at a more moderate rate t...
PM Post - Up Leveling
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: .20 higher Dec soyoil: 32 higher Dec corn: 3 higher Dec wheat: 7 higher The mark...
AM Outlook - "V" is for Volatility
GOOD MORNING, Prices were mixed overnight but gradually turned higher led by wheat, as traders seem more pre-occupied by what is going on in outside...
Technical Views - Leveling Up
SPREADS Dec crush trades 1.03c/bu while oilshare is steady at 45.78%. Dec/March corn trades out to 8 1/4c from 7 3/4c while the Dec 21/22 inverse fal...
Market Commentary: CBOT Succumbs to Macro Risk-Off Day; Cattle Pause Amid Hog Rally
The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with the U.S. Congressional battle over the debt ceiling, spending packages, and anything else the two parties can argue a...
Barley Market Tightens
The global barley market is only about one-eighth the size of the corn market but to major exporters (France, Russia, Australia, Canada) and to major impor...
Senator Grassley on RVOs: “Worst Week in Washington for Ethanol Ever”
There are more rumors circulating about potential cuts in the require volume obligations (RVOs) for biofuels. Those stories have certainly gained the atten...
U.S. – EU Agreement; Macro Bearishness
U.S. – EU Agreement Although France was balking at agreeing to the 17-page transatlantic agreement, tomorrow’s meeting of the U.S. – EU T...
PM Post - Macros Prompt Fund Selling
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 3/4 lower Dec meal: 1.40 lower Dec soyoil: 15 lower Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 1 higher The markets opene...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan sees a wheat cargo of 59,700 MT arrive with another 58,000 MT to arrive this week. T...
AM Outlook - Oil is the Big Kahuna
GOOD MORNING, The markets have put in a good rally as we head into the Sep. 1 Quarterly Stocks report. Corn rallied on any number of items, inc...
Technical Views - Weight of the Soy Complex
SPREADS Dec crush trades up to 1.00c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.98%. Spreads trade from 7 1/2c to 7 3/4c for Dec/March, while Dec 21/22 inverse t...
Market Commentary: Corn, Crude Oil Rally; Lean Hogs Hit Limit-Gains
Confirmation of a 300,000+ MT sale of soybeans to China, plus rumors of continued interest from Chinese buyers, put a bid under the CBOT on Monday. Corn fu...
Meat Maneuvers; German Maneuvers; Weighing Biden/Global Coverage
Meat Maneuvers The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association asked USDA to opine on whether alternative proteins such as cell-cultured products could be labeled a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.395/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Corn Crude Comparison
The December corn contract rose 2.4 percent today and WTI Crude was up 1.7 percent. The corn price is rising in the middle of otherwise bearish indicators...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Despite stable FAS prices near $200-205/MT, Argentina’s market saw traded volume decrease. Even so, October is almost here, and farmers have sol...
Big Week for Biden Agenda and Fiscal Policy on Capitol Hill
This week will be pivotal on Capitol Hill. Much of President Biden’s agenda – the American Families Plan (43.5 trillion budget reconciliation b...
PM Post - Outside Money Boost
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: 2.00 higher Dec soyoil: 50 lower Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 1 lower The markets op...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The United Nations is tendering for 200,000 MT of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government with a submission deadline of 8 O...
Technical Views - Sideways Range-bound
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 93.70c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.51%. Spreads are firmer with Dec/March corn trading from 7 1/2c to 7 3/4c, while De...
AM Outlook - Bearish Tone
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened on a mixed note overnight, higher beans and wheat, lower corn. Weather is wide open for harvest. Soyoil futures ope...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle on feed totaled 11.2 million head on September 1, 2021. The inventory was 1 percent below September 1, 2020. This is the second highest September 1...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed; Soy Crushing Stops in China; Cattle and Hog Reports Bullish 2022 Futures
The CBOT was mixed in low-volume trade to end the week. Chicago wheat was the upside leader, though few contracts followed that market’s lead. Corn a...
USDA Inventory Reports: Hogs Bullish, Cattle More Bearish
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report today with most all categories coming in below pre-report expectations. Total inventory was 75.4 million h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Wine over Beer; Bad Timing; PR Approach; Korean Hope
Wine over Beer Policymakers hoping to compel the citizenry into drastic actions to cut carbon emissions have poured cold water on their messaging with the...
Minor Misnomer
In agriculture, there are major and minor crops. This seemingly disparaging characterization relates solely to the amount of acreage utilized. Minor crops...
PM Post - Risk-off, Profit-taking, Position-leveling
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 lower Dec meal: .20 lower Dec soyoil: 5 lower Dec corn: 1 lower Dec wheat: 1/2 lower The markets opened lower on a cautio...
Technical Views - Round We Go
SPREADS Dec crush trades up to 91.20c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 45.55%. Dec/March trades from 7 1/2c to 8c, while Dec 21/22 trades fro...
Am Outlook - Notable Stories
GOOD MORNING, Prices were mixed in the evening, higher for beans and soyoil with corn struggling and all turning in the red by the AM hour. Soyoil pr...
Market Commentary: Off the Bottom
The market opened soft with wheat and soyoil as leaders and the rest in the hole, but a route was found out of the hole by everything but soymeal and feede...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed and Hogs and Pigs Preview
Tomorrow, USDA will release two important reports: the monthly Cattle on Feed Report and the quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory. Analysts’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2925/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1775/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...
Killing CBAM; Nation Killing; Markets versus Regulation
Killing CBAM European Commission Executive Vice President Frans Timmerman says that the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism would not apply to Japan due to...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Soy Stocks; Argentina Soy Crush; India Soymeal
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 16 September indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans and soyme...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Chinese Live Hog Price Decline Accelerates After Holiday The fall optimism that emerged mid-summer with respect to the return...
PM Post - As Called
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: 1.10 lower Dec soyoil: 40 higher Dec corn: 2 lower Dec wheat: 4 higher The markets opened as...
Export Sales
For the period September 10-16, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 355,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 42 percent from the previous week, but up...
Technical Views - Corn/Soymeal Lower
SPREADS Dec oilshare trades to 45.20% while crush trades up to 89.85c. Dec/March corn narrows into 7 1/4c from 7 1/2c. Dec 21/22 trades from 24...
AM Outlooked - Mixed Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with wheat and soyoil leading the way in strength. The PM session featured more congestion trade as harvest rolls on a...
Market Commentary: Real Reaction to Fake RVOs; Oats, Wheat Rally
The CBOT finished higher on Wednesday with corn and soyoil trading a volatile day with rumors and reports of new EPA biofuel requirements and suspicions of...