Note that WPI will not be publishing Technical Perspectives reports on Friday, August 13, 2021. However, all other articles covering markets and policy wil...
Articles
WASDE Corn
2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller ending stocks. Reduced exports are partially offset by greater corn used for ethanol, starch, and glucose an...
WASDE Soyoil
2021/22 global oilseed stocks are slightly higher as lower production is paired with lower use. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 c...
WASDE Soymeal
2021/22 soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on a lower domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast which is reduced in line with the prior year, a...
WASDE Soybeans
2021/22 U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down 66 million on lower yields. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast o...
WASDE Wheat
2021/22 world wheat is projected to decline 16.8 million tons to 1,065.7 million, primarily on lower production for Russia, Canada, and the United States.&...
Export Sales
Summary for the period July30-August 5, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 293,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 5 percent from the previous week a...
Market Commentary: Shock and Awe
Surprises are usually left for the military but today USDA pulled off the unthinkable, shocking the market to the bullish side. The August WASDE report ref...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.535/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close. ...
Stick it to Foreigners; Saved by Foreigners
Stick it to Foreigners Former U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Russel B. Long (D-Louisiana) noted how politicians protected their own constituents an...
Livestock Round Up: ASF; Exports and Cattle Price Reporting
All eyes are focused on the outbreak of ASF in the Dominican Republic; the disease was traced to backyard operations and has now been found in 14 of the co...
AM Outlook - Looking for Direction from the Report
GOOD MORNING, The markets all started the evening trade with losses, but slowly came back in the grains to trade higher. The major function of the ma...
Technical Views - Uncertainty
SPREAD Sep. crush trades to 1.19c/bu while oilshare is firm at 46.87%. Sep/Nov bean inverse trades from 7 3/4c to 6 1/4c. Nov/March beans trade...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5925/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.27/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 2...
Market Commentary: Palm Oil, Soy Complex Rally; Funds Buy Corn before WASDE
The CBOT was firmer heading into tomorrow’s much-anticipated WASDE report, but the major commodities held to their recent trading ranges. The soy com...
Fake Green Growth; ESG Trade Policy
Fake Green Growth Policymakers of a certain policy bent are keen to tell the public that economic growth and environmental sustainability are not exclusive...
Infrastructure Lacks Correlation to Trade
The Biden Administration has said it is not interested in negotiating new trade agreements until the U.S. makes investments in things like infrastructure t...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices Drop Sharply in July, Down Nearly 4 Percent The average cost of food in July was down year-on-year by 3.7 percent with pork pric...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 August 2021 Prices in the domestic Russian grain market grew significantly in all regions of the European part of Russia, mainly...
PM Post - Watching Export and Yield Changes Tomorrow
THE OPEN November beans: 10 higher December meal: steady December soyoil: 60 higher December corn: 2 higher December wheat: 2...
Technical Views - Mostly Sideways Ranges
SPREADS Sep. crush is 1.12c while oilshare trades at 46.90%. The September roll continues, and is still a bulk of trading volume. Sep/Dec...
AM Outlook - Just Following Fundamentals
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed, with the major feature that of higher soyoil which in turn is supporting the bean market. Corn follows stronger beans...
Market Commentary: Wheat Higher on Production Risks; Hog Selloff Continues; WPI Corn, Soybean S&D Estimates
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with accelerating worries for world wheat production sending Chicago and KC markets higher while stronger soyoil and Chinese...
Infrastructure Canard and Trade
The U.S. Senate passed an infrastructure investment package today, a prerequisite by the Biden Administration before Washington will again reduced barriers...
Long Term Ethanol Question: Electric Vehicles – Fact or Fantasy?
Last week, President Biden issued an executive order as part of his “Build Back Better” initiative that calls for targeting all vehicle sales t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.27/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
PM Post - Firm Ahead of Thursday
THE OPEN November beans: 9 higher December meal: 4.20 higher December soyoil: 30 higher December corn: 2 lower December wheat: ...
AMLO Plays with Fire
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has ordered a ban on GMO corn imports by 2024, has stopped approvals of all new GMO trai...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt’s bread price needs to increase according to President Sisi since the price has b...
AM Outlook - Bearish Pressures
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed overnight with corn prices lower on better-than-expected ratings, and a poor inspections report yesterday that suggests expo...
Technical Views - Still Rangebound
SPREADS Sep. crush was 1.14c/bu while oilshare traded 45.76%. August / Nov bean inverse jumps to 1.17c from 1.13c, while Sep/Nov inverse firms to 1.1...
Market Commentary: Climate Report, Energy Markets Pressure CBOT; Pre-Report Positioning in Full Swing
The CBOT was mostly red to start the week with energy and outside markets pressuring futures. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all stuck to their recent trading r...
Fire with Fire; Trade Bans Equal Price Disparities; Infrastructure and Delta
Fire with Fire Some U.S. senators have introduced legislation that would prohibit states from enacting laws dictating how livestock are produced in other s...
Infrastructure and Budget Reconciliation Moving; May Take the Rest of the Year
The Senate is moving forward on the bi-partisan infrastructure package; a cloture vote to limit debate and provide a timeline for a final vote and consider...
Rethink Livestock
The think tank RethinkX, which forecasts the disruptive impacts of merging technologies says that the global livestock industry is going bankrupt over the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.1125/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat prices are higher this week with declining Russian, Canadian, and U.S. spring wheat production prospects driving the rally. The p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting is 97 percent complete across the 6.5 Mha to be seeded. Weather conditions have been unfavorable recently with...
PM Post - Inspections Mixed; Crop Progress Lower
THE OPEN Nov. beans: 1 higher Dec. meal: 2.80 higher Dec. soyoil: 40 lower Dec. corn: 4 1/4 lower Dec wheat: 3 1/2 lowe...
Technical Views - Mostly Lower
SPREADS Sep. crush trades down to 1.15c/bu while oilshare trades lower to 45.92%. Sep/Dec corn trades from 1 1/2c to 2c carry, while Dec/March trades...
AM Outlook - A Tale of Two Weather Patterns
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with rains in the eastern Corn Belt weighing on prices, and lower crude oil creating a buy meal/sell soyoil trade. Soy...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally on China Buying; Grains End Firmer; WPI Issues Yield Forecasts
The CBOT was mostly higher to end the week with wheat leading the way once again. Corn futures settled cautiously higher with ample position evening with t...
Milk Margins Before, During, and After COVID
Feed costs and milk supply and demand are squeezing the income-over-feed-costs margins for dairy producers. The Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) has paid out si...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Climate Analysis; New Ag Markets
Climate Analysis There will be a new report out on Monday from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and predictions are that it will se...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.565/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.19/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. ...
Meteoric Sorghum Consumption
Long a staple crop in Sub-Saharan Africa, no region or country can compete with the roller coaster and meteoric rise of sorghum consumption in China. In th...
PM Post - Ranges Reflect Yield Debate
THE OPEN November beans: 7 1/2 higher December meal: 1.40 higher December soyoil: 70 higher December corn: 2 higher December wheat: 9 3/4...
Technical Views - Upside of Sideways
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 1.24c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.48%. Sep/Dec corn spread finds little direction, trading from 2 1/2c to 1c in...
AM Outlook - Pushing Higher
GOOD MORNING, Prices were mixed to begin the PM session but turned higher by the morning. The markets continue to digest all the yield guesses while...
Market Commentary: Known Unknowns
The market traded today on a little bit of what it knows, and a little bit on what it speculates to be happening. Since it is hard to believe that weeks of...
Livestock Round Up: USDA to Start New Livestock Price Reports Next Week
Fed cattle market issues continue to be the top focus in overall agriculture policy. There were three key developments this week. First, yesterday Senator...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.53/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.1275/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Debt Leverage Volatility; Land Ownership Focus; Speculators in Detention
Debt Leverage Volatility Markets hate uncertainty but the upcoming hardball political play in Washington is as transparent as cellophane. Congressional Dem...
PM Post - Lower Forecast Numbers
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: 2.50 higher December soyoil: 32 lower December corn: 5 1/2 higher December wheat:&n...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Soybean Quality; Renewable Diesel
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans had a good week selling U.S. soybeans for expo...
Export Sales
This summary is for the period July 23-29, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 308,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 40 percent from the previ...
Technical Views - A Few Tests
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 1.26c/bu while oilshare trades down to 46.76%. Sep/Dec corn trades either side of even, 3/4c inverse to 1/2c carry, whil...
AM Outlook - Split Decision
GOOD MORNING, Prices are trending lower for oilshare overnight as energies trade off, along with lower canola. Grains are firmer while the soy comple...
Market Commentary: Wheat Forms Reversal; Favorable U.S. Weather Pressures Corn, Soybeans
CBOT futures were mostly lower on Wednesday with a more favorable U.S. weather forecast once again taking away the need for a weather/yield premium in pric...
Two Sides to Every Coin; Buy China; Novel Quid Pro Quo
Two Sides to Every Coin Trees have suddenly become the solution de jour for climate change with efforts to stop the destruction of existing forests in the...
Peanut Butter Jam
Originally, a tropical South American plant, there are plenty of different names for the popular oilseed most commonly called groundnut, goober, and peanut...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4675/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.1725/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Newly Released Data Shows Live Hog Output By Province By the end of last week, all provinces across China finished reporting their live hog outpu...
PM Post - Awaiting New Signals
THE OPEN November beans: 4 3/4 higher December meal: .10 higher December soyoil: 68 higher December corn: 2 1/4 higher December whe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26-30, July 2021 Prices in the domestic Russian grain market moved in different directions with a downward trend getting weaker unde...
Technical Views - Wheat Has Strength
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 1.27c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.56%. Sep/Dec corn inverse trades at a small carry from 3/4c to 1 3/4c, while...
AM Outlook - Chop, Chop, Chop
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the session mainly mixed but turning two-sided during the overnight hours. Funds were net sellers yesterday as prices ch...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Sharply Lower on Crush and Conditions; Wheat Has Unfinished Business
The CBOT was mixed with soybeans and products sharply lower after yesterday hammered the market with surprisingly good crop conditions ratings and a bearis...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5175/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.245/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&nb...
More Biodiesel Despite Duties; Greenwashing Carbon; Transatlantic Alcohol Divide
More Biodiesel Despite Duties The EU extended antidumping and countervailing duties on imports of U.S.-produced biodiesel for an additional five years. The...
Conditions for Stagflation – 1970s versus 2020s
Last week the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the real, or inflation adjusted, GDP estimate for Q2 2021 showing the economy growing at 6.5...
Consumers Switch Off OJ
As noted in yesterday’s piece on the broader dynamics of citrus and global trade, U.S. production faces several different headwinds. One that is part...
PM Post - Selling Pressure into Range Lows
THE OPEN November beans: 24 lower December meal: 4.20 lower December soyoil: 110 pts lower December corn: 3 1/2 lower December wheat:&nbs...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA 4 August is the one-year anniversary of the fertilizer explosion in Beirut port that killed 2...
Technical Views - Defensive Day
SPREADS Sep. crush trades 1.30c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.0%. Sep/Dec corn trades out to 1 1/2c carry from 1/2c, while Dec/March trades out to 8...
AM Outlook - Dropping on Better Conditions
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board on slightly better than expected crop ratings for beans. Corn crop ratings were actually 2% lower, bu...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally; Global Grain Supply Concerns Accelerate
Wheat was the upside leader at the CBOT on Monday, posting strong gains and rallying to new two-month highs. Bull spreading between wheat and corn/soybeans...
Capitalism’s Advantage; Capitalism’s Challenge
Capitalism’s Advantage The so-called “squad” of socialists in the American Democratic party ran into a buzzsaw when it comes to Cuba. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5925/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.295/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close. ...
Citrus Dynamics
While the U.S. remains a major producer of citrus fruit, it is also a major consumer of the products and thus is increasingly dependent on imports. Over th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 9.2 percent last week, bringing the total harvest to 82 percent of the planted area. The harvest is 12 percent...
Senate Takes Up Infrastructure Bill Today
After working over the weekend, the Senate now has drafted 3,000 pages of legislative text for the bi-partisan infrastructure package. As of this morning,...
PM Post - More Upside
THE OPEN November beans: 4 lower December meal: 1.80 higher December soyoil: 60 lower December corn: 3 1/2 higher December wheat:&n...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine is increasingly becoming the dominant supplier of grains from the Black Sea region. Ukrainian grain exports are up 49 percent Y...
Technical Views - Getting In, Getting Out
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 1.25c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.40%. Corn spreads are weaker with Sep/Dec now trading into new lows at 3/4c c...
AM Outlook - Will Wheat Pull the Market Higher?
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with soyoil seeing pressure due to profit-taking in oilshare, while wheat futures remain firm. Soyoil futures fo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Stumbles but Trading Ranges Remain Intact; Hog Futures Form Top
The CBOT sank lower on Friday as end-of-the-week and end-of-the-month profit taking pressured commodity prices. Beyond position-based trading, rains across...
Legal Brief by Species
It’s been a busy week for meat and poultry lawsuits. There have been three significant legal developments in the protein sector – broilers, por...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4525/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.0375/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close...
PM Post - Rain Shakeup
THE OPEN November beans: 15 lower December meal: 2.10 lower December soyoil: 71 lower December corn: 5 3/4 lower December wheat: 5...
Loving Protectionism; Something or Everything at MC12
Loving Protectionism Market access barriers protect domestic workers and that is why they are so difficult to get rid of, even when they are wrong. U.S. Co...
Volatility in Eggs
The production of beef is inherently volatile due to cyclical nature of cattle, on top of market factors. Poultry are not thought to be as susceptible to v...
AM Outlook - More Sideways Chop
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower on first notice day for August futures. Wetter weather and end-of-week profit-taking dominates price action.&nbs...
Technical Views - Cycling Lower
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 1.28c/bu while oilshare trades down to 47.87%. Sep/Dec corn trades from 3c to 1 1/2c inverse, while Dec/March trades from 7 1/...
Ag Review - July 2021
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the impacts of climate change, c...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 515,200 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 9 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Cor...
Market Commentary: Thirsty Thursday
Crops are thirsty for water and the bartenders in the futures market today raised their prices. The ongoing North American drought prompted the Internation...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.565/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.0525/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Price Recovery; Pork Exports to Mexico Boom
Cattle prices in July were very near their 10-year (2011-2020) monthly average, but more interestingly, they have been rallying through the summer. Typical...
Where China and Russia Differ; Inflation/Infrastructure
Where China and Russia Differ U.S. President Joe Biden calls China a “most serious competitor” and dismisses Russia as having nothing but nucle...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Parana River; India Soy; LA Renewable Diesel
U.S. Old-Crop Soybean Export Sales Declined Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated old-crop soybean export sales declined last week, bu...
China In-Country Analysis
Environment Once in a Thousand-Year Rainfall Devastates Henan Province While the Western U.S. has suffered from a major heat wave, drought, and massive fir...
PM Post - Building Gains within Trading Ranges
THE OPEN November beans: 12 higher December meal: 3.00 higher December soyoil: 62 higher December corn: 3 higher December wheat:&nb...
Technical Views - Upward Momentum
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 1.27c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.79%. August /Nov bean inverse rallies to 71c before giving up some of its gai...
AM Outlook - Higher Wheat and Oilshare
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher as more reports of a devastated wheat crop in North Dakota roll in. Extreme heat in the Northern Plains and in the Mi...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Tour Yield Projections; Corn, Soybeans Steady; Hogs Tumble
Wheat was the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday, with crop tour yield results coming in below expectations. Minneapolis wheat futures were up 25 cents...
Cure Worse than the Disease
Former Deputy USTR C.J. Mahoney had some sage analysis this week regarding the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), aka Fast Track that expired earlier this mo...
Chick Cost Dilemma
Germany and France announced an official policy against culled male chicks in the egg-laying business. As noted by other analysts, it is a problem recogniz...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 July 2021 Prices continue to decrease in the domestic Russian grain market in most regions where sellers still haven’t c...
PM Post - Bearish Mood Despite the Rally
THE OPEN November beans: 7 higher December meal: .40 higher December soyoil: 58 higher December corn: 3 higher December wheat: ...
Technical News - A Bounce
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 1.24c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.45%. Sep/Dec corn inverse weakens to 1 3/4c from 2 3/4c, while the Dec/...
AM Outlook - Purchase Rumors and Weather
GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer as more rumors of possible Chinese business and hot and dry temperatures for this week underpin futures. Wheat leads...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Crop Conditions, Ends Mixed on Improved Weather Forecast
The CBOT started Tuesday’s trade sharply higher overnight after USDA’s Crop Progress data showed surprising declines in U.S. corn and soybean r...
Changing Climate for Farm Disaster Payments
The House Agriculture Committee passed a bill providing additional farm emergency payments under the Wildfires and Hurricanes Indemnity Program – Plu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4625/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.745/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Lazy Trade Officials; Made in Amurica Week; Beijing/Washington Differences
Lazy Trade Officials A hearing today before the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance on the USMCA was revealing not for what has changed since NAFTA was replac...
Security Trumps Economics
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week but do not expect any help for U.S. farmers. The two plan to ta...
PM Post - Funds Sell Rallies
THE OPEN November beans: 18 higher December meal: 6.60 higher December soyoil: 50 pts higher December corn: 9 1/4 higher December w...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Eid holidays have limited business activity in the past week in the MENA region – all w...
Technical Views - Higher in Ranges
SPREADS October crush trades to 1.15c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.58%. Sep/Dec corn inverse continues to weaken, trading down to 2 1/2c from...
AM Outlook - Technical Reversal; Poorer Crop Ratings
GOOD MORNING, Overnight prices were firmer on the technical reversal from yesterday and lower than expected crop progress ratings. Chartists and tech...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Shrug off Weak Overnight Trade; Cattle Post New Highs on Supply Data
The CBOT was sharply lower overnight and in early-day trade, thanks to rising political tensions between the U.S. and China. Reports say Chinese vice-minis...
Future Industry Impacts; Minimum Wage and Farm Labor
Future Industry Impacts The push toward shorter supply chains and plant-based food products will have perverse impacts on the food marketing industry. For...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4675/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.77/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
More Duties on Fertilizer
On 30 June, the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) received a petition to impose countervailing duties (CVD) and anti-dumping duties (AD) on imports of urea...
Costly Morning Joe
Brazil is the largest producer of coffee in the world, representing 40 percent of global production, and recent freeze damage is expected to drive global c...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Finally, Argentina’s corn harvest had a week with strong progress. Farmers harvested 10 percent of the fields, bringing total harvest...
PM Post - Soyoil the Only Constant
THE OPEN November beans: 11 lower December meal: 3.50 lower December soyoil: 15 higher December corn: 4 1/2 lower December wheat: 1...
European Market Analysis
Regional News After recent, disastrous flooding, the European weather is clearing and allowing harvest to accelerate. The flooding in Germany and Bel...
Technical Views - Headed Lower
SPREADS Crush is higher today with November trading to 1.24c/bu and oilshare at 47.63%. Sep/Dec corn inverse trades from 3 3/4c to 5 1/4c, whil...
AM Outlook - Declining Demand and OI
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the night with more losses as we head into the last week of July. The lack of demand and overall reductions in fund leng...
Cattle on Feed
USDA reported U.S. Cattle on Feed down 1% Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or mo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.43/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.84/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather, Weak Technicals; Livestock Markets Digest New Data
The CBOT pulled back again on Friday with weak technical conditions in corn and soybeans contributing to early declines. U.S. weather forecasts are mostly...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Cattle Supply Continuing to Contract in Line with Expectations
USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report was released this afternoon. All cattle and calves in the United States on 1 July totaled 101 million head...
Tilting at Windmills; Floored Prices; Greenwashing Sustainability
Tilting at Windmills China is being chided in the financial press for trying to limit commodity prices. In addition to scrutinizing pricing platforms, Beij...
Different Value-Added
USDA/FAS reports that excessive rains hit Chile earlier this year and damaged a wide swath of that country’s grape crop. What is notable is the conce...
PM Post - Bailing Out for the Weekend
THE OPEN November beans: 5 lower December meal: 3.80 lower December soyoil: 90 higher December corn: 1 1/4 lower December wheat:&nb...
Technical Views - Still Sideways
SPREADS We continue to see positive crush margins in the US, with August at 99c/bu and Sep. at 1.31c/bu. August oilshare trades to 47.70% and Sep. is...
AM Outlook - Unwinding
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with higher oilshare and soyoil and firm wheat, vs. weaker beans, meal, and corn. Traders were busy...
Market Commentary: Weather Whiplash
While the gyrations in the equities market are based on things like earnings and risks from inflation or COVID, agricultural commodities are all about the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, down $0.185 from yesterday's close...
Green Measures Have Consequences; Good Choice at FAS
Green Measures Have Consequences Under France’s new Climate and Resilience law, farmers must reduce their emissions from nitrogen fertilizer by 15 pe...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Buys Argentine Soy; EU Soy Imports; Brazil Soy
U.S. Soy Export Sales Down Last Week The week ending 15 July was not a good one for export sales of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil. Apparently, it will...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed and Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory Preview
Tomorrow, USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 July a...
PM Post - Weather or Not
THE OPEN November beans: 25 lower December meal: 5.60 lower December soyoil: 130 pts lower December corn: 13 lower December wheat: 14 low...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 473,200 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 11 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. Co...
Technical Views - Sideways and Lower
SPREADS August crush trades to 95c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.76%. Sep/Dec corn trades up to 4 1/2c from 3 1/2c while Dec/March carry trades from...
AM Outlook - Weathered Downward
GOOD MORNING, Prices took a turn lower as selling surfaced in Minneapolis wheat as rains crossed areas of Canada and the Great Lakes region. Minneapo...
Market Commentary: Corn Fills Chart Gaps; Canola, Spring Wheat Lower on Canadian Rains
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn showing the greatest strength, despite posting gains of just 2-3 cents. Soyoil fell as the Biden administration i...
Energy versus Ag; Quacks Like a Duck; Much Precedent
Energy versus Ag The Biden White House is reportedly undecided over biofuel blend mandates for 2021 and 2022 and is being asked to intervene in Mexico&rsqu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.1075/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Got Your Goat
The Washington Post featured an article about goat cheese production in the U.S. It notes that the number of dairy goats has increased nearly 132 percent s...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog and White Feather Broiler Prices Fall on Rising Supplies Even with the National Merchant Reserve Center stepping in to buy up surplus po...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 July 2021 Prices continue to decrease in the domestic Russian grain market, but in some regions, they were slightly up. Averag...
PM Post - Trading Ranges Affirmed
THE OPEN November beans: 2 higher December meal: 3.70 higher December soyoil: 70 lower December corn: 5 higher December wheat: ...
AM Outlook - Grains Firmer; Soyoil Weaker
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed, with soyoil lower and more buy meal/sell soyoil spread trade. After the close yesterday, the EPA announced they would delay...
Technical Views - Finding Values
SPREADS August crush trades to 99c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.27%. Sep crush is 1.28c/bu with oil share at 46.77%. Sep/Dec corn inver...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ignores Monday’s Meltdown, Trades Higher on Crop Conditions and Dry Weather
CBOT futures shrugged off yesterday’s macro-market selloff overnight and traded higher with corn extending gains into the open chart gap. The day ses...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.6575/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.005/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...
Popularity and Planning
Demand for the Andean pseudo-cereal quinoa has seen impressive growth and production has expended to meet it. Mushrooms are the new plant-based substitute...
Short Supply Chain Fallacy; Border Tax Mayhem
Short Supply Chain Fallacy Buy local is tribal but has quaint, emotive appeal. The EU is giving policy support to short supply chains, provided they do not...
Dual Track Infrastructure and Budget Bills Pulling Out of Station Tomorrow
The Congressional August recess is coming soon with the Senate scheduled to adjourn on 9 August. That means the next three weeks provide a busy legislative...
PM Post - Rebound but Directional Strength is Weak
THE OPEN November beans: 18 higher December meal: 4.50 higher December soyoil: 67 higher December corn: 13 1/4 higher December whea...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia flour mill sales for the Second and Fourth Milling Companies has reportedl...
Am Outlook - Rebound
GOOD MORNING, Commodities and equities saw a nice rebound to start the night. All posted gains at the start of the trading session, including soyoil...
Technical Views - Retracement and Filling Gaps
SPREADS August crush trades to 97.28c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.87%. Sep oilshare trades to 47.27%. Sep/Dec corn spread is firmer with an...
Market Commentary: Macro Selling Scuttles CBOT; Wheat Finds Strength on Dry U.S. Weather
The CBOT started higher overnight but a huge selloff in stocks, energies, and other macro-markets crushed the rally after the day session began. Only wheat...
PNW Heatwave Impacts
The Pacific Northwest (PNW) of the U.S. is suffering drought and a heatwave rarely seen in recent history. The white wheat crop has been damaged for sure b...
E15 Legislation Proposed
As we previously reported (6 July), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration EPA’s decision to provide a wai...
Why Inflation is Real; Answers for Carbon Banking and Inflation
Why Inflation is Real The debate amongst economists as to whether the current spike in inflation is transitory or a longer lasting trend is almost entirely...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5225/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.9775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Brazil The Brazilian corn production estimates look poor indeed. The combination of intense drought and recent frost/freeze events caused huge,...
PM Post - Turning Lower
THE OPEN November beans: 3 higher December meal: 3.90 higher December soyoil: 52 lower December corn: 6 higher December wheat: ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Weather continues to drive almost every market involving a crop planted in the ground. Flooding across Germany and parts of western Eur...
Technical Views - New Lines of Support
SPREADS Sep crush trades to 1.24c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.70%. August oilshare trades to new highs at 48.32%. Sep/Dec corn inverse leaks...
AM Outlook - Weather Reversal
GOOD MORNING, If the rains washed away gains over the last several weeks, a bit of hot and dry is now turning prices higher. In the meantime, the Com...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on U.S. Heat, EU Flooding, China Buying; Corn, Soybeans Trade Weather
The CBOT traded higher overnight with wheat and soybeans leading the way. Concerns about low-quality wheat in Europe fueled a rally in the Paris market tha...
The First Shot; Bad Shot
The First Shot U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping faced off today in a virtual meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Council (APEC) b...
Bearish Dairy and Lower Production Forecast
Drought, feed costs, and supply are weighing on milk production. The latest monthly data show that May daily milk production per cow is down half a pound f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Hunger at Home, Food Abroad
Bloomberg reports a dramatic increase in hunger in India last year due to the economic losses from COVID. The Centre for Sustainable Employment in India be...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.52/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.925/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Wide Ranges, Watch Buying
THE OPEN November beans: 15 higher December meal: 4.40 higher December soyoil: 71 higher December corn: 6 higher December wheat: 15...
Technical Views - Eyes on Weather
SPREADS August crush trades to 90c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.63%. Corn inverses are slightly weaker as new buying comes into December. Sep...
AM Outlook - Upside Follow Through
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to firm in the overnight session with wheat gaining on corn, and meal on soyoil, for a change. Weekly export sale...
Market Commentary: Weather Attention
The Fed continues to describe inflation as transient but said this week it is prepared to raise interest rates if proven wrong. Several business leaders ar...
Reality Check; Worker-Centric; Fit for 55
Reality Check The Mexican government says that it will halve the volume of corn imports by 2024 while concurrently eliminating the use of glyphosate. Meanw...
Livestock Round Up: Policy Clouds Gathering on Meat Industry Horizon
As we’ve covered previously, there are a number of plans and proposals for dramatic policy changes relative to livestock and meat packing. This week,...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Export Sales; June Soybean Crush; Return of La Nina; Continuing Drought
Fairly Positive Week for U.S. Soybean and Soymeal Export Sales Today’s USDA export sales report had no surprises. Sales and exports of soybeans and s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5625/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.72/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
PM Post - Thin and Choppy
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: 2.90 lower Dec soyoil: 70 higher Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 5 higher The mar...
Export Sales
USDA reports for the period July 2-8, 2021 Wheat: Net sales of 424,700 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 46 percent from the previous week and 4...
AM Outlook - Congestion and Mixed Weather
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue in congestion trade with rains this week bearish but hot and dry forecasts next week keeping markets well supported. Hi...
Technical Views - Staying in Bandwidth
SPREADS August crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare prices are 47.83%. August /Nov bean inverse remains supported trading from 70c to 76 3/4c, while...
Market Commentary: Mind the Gaps
The CBOT was sharply higher on Wednesday with the July grain contracts officially rolling off the board. Twenty-six contracts of July corn were traded this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.18 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.5425/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. ...
Conceding Market Share; Nationalist Diet
Conceding Market Share American agricultural exporters long ago gave up on hopes of boosting their market share in Europe but now Europe may be conceding o...
Reason to Produce
The countries producing the largest number of soybeans and corn are responding to current elevated prices. However, the response is uneven. China is switch...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomic Trends Food Prices in June See Biggest Decline Since November The average cost of food this past June fell by 1.7 percent from a year ago. Th...
PM Post - Seeking Value Levels
THE OPEN November beans: 15 higher December meal: 2.90 higher December soyoil: 49 higher December corn: 6 1/2 higher December wheat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 July 2021 The domestic Russian grain market continued to switch to 2021 yield prices , and as a result prices decreased. Winter...
AM Outlook - Higher into the Open
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher heading into the open. July futures expire today as noontime, and July corn placed a new contract high for the week a...
Technical Views - Up
SPREADS August crush trades up to 86c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.74%. August /Nov bean inverse strengthens to 68 3/4c from 61 1/2c while Sep/Nov...
Market Commentary: Wheat Stalls Despite Bullish Fundamentals; Corn, Soybeans Firm Post-WASDE
The CBOT was mostly higher following yesterday’s fundamental reports with corn and soybeans leading the way. Wheat saw surprisingly little follow-thr...
USDA to Propose New “Product of USA” Labeling Rules for Meat
Last Friday, we reported on the new Executive Order from the Administration on various competitive issues for agriculture and the meat sector. As we mentio...
Past is Prologue; AMLO’s Advice; Chinese Land Grab
Past is Prologue Jeffrey Garten is a Yale University dean and a former official in four different U.S. administrations. His latest book, Three Days at Camp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.3375/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Forest for the Trees
The spike in woods prices earlier this year has now subsided but there are longer term issues that need to be addressed. The production of forest products...
PM Post - Technical Recovery
THE OPEN November beans: 6 higher December meal: 4.50 lower December soyoil: 155 pts higher December corn: 1/2 lower December wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Eid Holidays Muslim countries in the region will be closed for the Eid Al Adha religious cele...
AM Outlook - Report Has Come and Gone
GOOD MORNING, The report has come and gone, and in its wake set the trend for higher oilshare and higher beans vs corn. The bullish wheat report set...
Technical Views - Mostly Firmer
SPREADS August crush trades to 90.51c/bu while oilshare trades to 48.29%. August / Nov bean inverse trades from 54 1/2c to 52 1/4c, while Sep/Nov tra...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA’s July outlook for soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents...
WASDE Soymeal
USDA’s July outook for soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month. ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s July outlook for U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, unchanged from last month. Harvested area, forecast at 86...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s July outlook for U.S. corn in 2021/22 is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. ...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s July outlook for U.S. wheat in 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies ar...
Market Commentary: USDA Surprises with Wheat Cuts; Upside Potential Still Lingers
The CBOT was called to open higher heading into the July WASDE and markets did just that. Canola offered initial support, gapping higher and trading to lim...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4075/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close. ...
Cuban Tipping Point; Antitrust China; Kick Me
Cuban Tipping Point U.S. aggies have pushed for and dreamed about access to the Cuban market for decades. Despite its relatively small size (11 million peo...
Meat and Health
Some health advocates are pushing the narrative that plant-based diets are not only better for the planet but also good for one’s health. If true, th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is still moving slowly due to high moisture content in the grain. Harvest has advanced just 8 percent in the past two w...
PM Post - Lows Printed, Back to Weather
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 1/2 higher Dec meal: 1.40 lower December soyoil: 60 pts higher December corn: 2 3/4 higher December wheat:&nb...
AM Outlook - Light Position Evening
GOOD MORNING, It is report day and traders do not expect to see many changes in the numbers, particularly where yields are concerned. The report will...
Technical Views - Slow at Open
SPREADS September crush trades to 1.22c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.74%. August / Nov bean inverse trade from 48c to 54 1/2c while Sep/Nov trades...
Market Commentary: Corn Breaks Support; Canola Finds Its Limit; Soybeans Form Bear Flag?
The CBOT saw stronger selling pressure than was initially expected with funds continuing to lighten up on long positions heading into Monday’s WASDE...
EO “Attempts” Competitive Ag Economy
Much of the Biden Administration’s agriculture agenda was furthered today by an Executive Order (EO) issued from the White House while Secretary Vils...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.17/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.15/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 290,800 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022. Corn: Net sales of 173,200 MT...
Policy Retribution; Just in Time for the Weekend
Policy Retribution California is big, wealthy and has a great climate, everything that would create jealousy from other states. Then Sacramento makes the s...
Missing Vegetables
Some policymakers are signaling the desire for us to eat less meat and consume more vegetables. The question is whether the agricultural system is prepared...
PM Post - Mid-day Trend into the Close
THE OPEN November beans: 3 1/2 lower December meal: 1.70 lower December soyoil: 16 higher December corn: 7 lower December wheat: 3...
Technical Views - Weaker Signals
SPREADS August crush trades to 84.39c/bu while oilshare remains steady at 46.0%. Sep/Dec corn inverse strengthens to 15 1/4c from 13 1/4c. &nbs...
AM Outlook - Looking for Price Direction
GOOD MORNING, The markets seem to have run out of price direction except for the continuation of small fund liquidation into end-user pricing interest.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Fracking Brilliance; Uh Oh
We only analyze petroleum as a big sister commodity greatly influencing commodity indices (and thus ags) but right now something notable is happening. Oil...
U.S. Red Meat Exports Winning the Long Game
The May export data is in. Pork export volume was the third highest on record behind March 2020 and March 2021. Beef export volume set a historic record (a...
Courts to Trump EO; Labor Trumps Ag; Greens Trump Ag
Courts to Trump EO A new Executive Order (EO) by President Biden is easy politics but difficult law. The order will supposedly allow livestock producers to...
Oilseed Highlights: Canadian Canola; U.S. Soymeal; Indian Monsoon; China ASF; Soy Stocks
Canadian Canola Crop is in Big Trouble. While most of the attention in the U.S. has been focused on the drought in the upper Midwest the drought in the Can...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2375/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.18/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&...
PM Post - CBOT Sideways in Congestion Mode
THE OPEN: Nov beans: 10 lower Dec meal: 2.00 lower Dec soyoil: 65 lower Dec corn: 4 lower Dec wheat: 3 lower The markets opened as called with prices con...
Technical Views - Downward Slope
SPREADS August crush trades to 91.90c/bu while oilshare trades 45.61%. August /Nov bean inverse trades to 43 1/2c down to 39 1/4c., while Sep/N...
AM Outlook - Grinding Sideways
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue grinding sideways into next Monday's July WASDE report. Traders continue to liquidate length and oilshare. Beans...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed as Corn Selling Continues; End-Users Become Buyers
The CBOT found continued selling from Tuesday’s market implosion with corn and SRW wheat seeing the brunt of the pressure. Corn futures settled lower...
We Have The Meat
There are a lot of voices discouraging the consumption of meat but for much of the world, demand continues to grow. Most of that demand growth is in Asia a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&...
Worker-Centric Suicide; Politics are Back
Worker-Centric Suicide The Biden Administration says it wants a worker-centric trade policy, but no one is quite sure what that means. The workers at U.S...