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No Technical Perspectives on August 13, 2021

Note that WPI will not be publishing Technical Perspectives reports on Friday, August 13, 2021. However, all other articles covering markets and policy wil...

WASDE Corn

2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller ending stocks.  Reduced exports are partially offset by greater corn used for ethanol, starch, and glucose an...

WASDE Soyoil

2021/22 global oilseed stocks are slightly higher as lower production is paired with lower use.  The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 c...

WASDE Soymeal

2021/22 soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on a lower domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast which is reduced in line with the prior year, a...

WASDE Soybeans

2021/22 U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down 66 million on lower yields.  The first survey-based soybean yield forecast o...

WASDE Wheat

2021/22 world wheat is projected to decline 16.8 million tons to 1,065.7 million, primarily on lower production for Russia, Canada, and the United States.&...

Export Sales

Summary for the period July30-August 5, 2021. Wheat:  Net sales of 293,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 5 percent from the previous week a...

Market Commentary: Shock and Awe

Surprises are usually left for the military but today USDA pulled off the unthinkable, shocking the market to the bullish side. The August WASDE report ref...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.535/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close. ...

Stick it to Foreigners; Saved by Foreigners

Stick it to Foreigners Former U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Russel B. Long (D-Louisiana) noted how politicians protected their own constituents an...

Livestock Round Up: ASF; Exports and Cattle Price Reporting

All eyes are focused on the outbreak of ASF in the Dominican Republic; the disease was traced to backyard operations and has now been found in 14 of the co...

AM Outlook - Looking for Direction from the Report

GOOD MORNING, The markets all started the evening trade with losses, but slowly came back in the grains to trade higher.  The major function of the ma...

Technical Views - Uncertainty

SPREAD Sep. crush trades to 1.19c/bu while oilshare is firm at 46.87%.  Sep/Nov bean inverse trades from 7 3/4c to 6 1/4c.  Nov/March beans trade...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5925/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.27/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Nov 2...

Market Commentary: Palm Oil, Soy Complex Rally; Funds Buy Corn before WASDE

The CBOT was firmer heading into tomorrow’s much-anticipated WASDE report, but the major commodities held to their recent trading ranges. The soy com...

Fake Green Growth; ESG Trade Policy

Fake Green Growth Policymakers of a certain policy bent are keen to tell the public that economic growth and environmental sustainability are not exclusive...

Infrastructure Lacks Correlation to Trade

The Biden Administration has said it is not interested in negotiating new trade agreements until the U.S. makes investments in things like infrastructure t...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Prices Drop Sharply in July, Down Nearly 4 Percent The average cost of food in July was down year-on-year by 3.7 percent with pork pric...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 August 2021 Prices in the domestic Russian grain market grew significantly in all regions of the European part of Russia, mainly...

PM Post - Watching Export and Yield Changes Tomorrow

THE OPEN November beans:  10 higher December meal:  steady December soyoil:  60 higher December corn:  2 higher December wheat:  2...

Technical Views - Mostly Sideways Ranges

SPREADS Sep. crush is 1.12c while oilshare trades at 46.90%.  The September roll continues, and is still a bulk of trading volume.   Sep/Dec...

AM Outlook - Just Following Fundamentals

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed, with the major feature that of higher soyoil which in turn is supporting the bean market.  Corn follows stronger beans...

Infrastructure Canard and Trade

The U.S. Senate passed an infrastructure investment package today, a prerequisite by the Biden Administration before Washington will again reduced barriers...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.27/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

PM Post - Firm Ahead of Thursday

THE OPEN November beans:  9 higher December meal:  4.20 higher December soyoil:  30 higher December corn:  2 lower December wheat: ...

AMLO Plays with Fire

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has ordered a ban on GMO corn imports by 2024, has stopped approvals of all new GMO trai...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Egypt’s bread price needs to increase according to President Sisi since the price has b...

AM Outlook - Bearish Pressures

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed overnight with corn prices lower on better-than-expected ratings, and a poor inspections report yesterday that suggests expo...

Technical Views - Still Rangebound

SPREADS Sep. crush was 1.14c/bu while oilshare traded 45.76%.  August / Nov bean inverse jumps to 1.17c from 1.13c, while Sep/Nov inverse firms to 1.1...

Rethink Livestock

The think tank RethinkX, which forecasts the disruptive impacts of merging technologies says that the global livestock industry is going bankrupt over the...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.1125/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close...

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  Wheat prices are higher this week with declining Russian, Canadian, and U.S. spring wheat production prospects driving the rally. The p...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat  Argentina’s wheat planting is 97 percent complete across the 6.5 Mha to be seeded. Weather conditions have been unfavorable recently with...

PM Post - Inspections Mixed; Crop Progress Lower

THE OPEN Nov. beans:  1 higher Dec. meal:  2.80 higher Dec.  soyoil:  40 lower Dec. corn:  4 1/4 lower Dec wheat:  3 1/2 lowe...

Technical Views - Mostly Lower

SPREADS Sep. crush trades down to 1.15c/bu while oilshare trades lower to 45.92%.  Sep/Dec corn trades from 1 1/2c to 2c carry, while Dec/March trades...

AM Outlook - A Tale of Two Weather Patterns

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with rains in the eastern Corn Belt weighing on prices, and lower crude oil creating a buy meal/sell soyoil trade.  Soy...

Milk Margins Before, During, and After COVID

Feed costs and milk supply and demand are squeezing the income-over-feed-costs margins for dairy producers. The Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) has paid out si...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Climate Analysis; New Ag Markets

Climate Analysis There will be a new report out on Monday from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and predictions are that it will se...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.565/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.19/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. ...

Meteoric Sorghum Consumption

Long a staple crop in Sub-Saharan Africa, no region or country can compete with the roller coaster and meteoric rise of sorghum consumption in China. In th...

PM Post - Ranges Reflect Yield Debate

THE OPEN November beans: 7 1/2 higher December meal: 1.40 higher December soyoil:  70 higher December corn:  2 higher December wheat:  9 3/4...

Technical Views - Upside of Sideways

SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 1.24c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.48%.   Sep/Dec corn spread finds little direction, trading from 2 1/2c to 1c in...

AM Outlook - Pushing Higher

GOOD MORNING, Prices were mixed to begin the PM session but turned higher by the morning.  The markets continue to digest all the yield guesses while...

Market Commentary: Known Unknowns

The market traded today on a little bit of what it knows, and a little bit on what it speculates to be happening. Since it is hard to believe that weeks of...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.53/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.1275/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

PM Post - Lower Forecast Numbers

THE OPEN November beans:  2 lower December meal:  2.50 higher December soyoil:  32 lower December corn:  5 1/2 higher December wheat:&n...

Export Sales

This summary is for the period July 23-29, 2021.  Wheat:  Net sales of 308,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 40 percent from the previ...

Technical Views - A Few Tests

SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 1.26c/bu while oilshare trades down to 46.76%.  Sep/Dec corn trades either side of even, 3/4c inverse to 1/2c carry, whil...

AM Outlook - Split Decision

GOOD MORNING, Prices are trending lower for oilshare overnight as energies trade off, along with lower canola.  Grains are firmer while the soy comple...

Two Sides to Every Coin; Buy China; Novel Quid Pro Quo

Two Sides to Every Coin Trees have suddenly become the solution de jour for climate change with efforts to stop the destruction of existing forests in the...

Peanut Butter Jam

Originally, a tropical South American plant, there are plenty of different names for the popular oilseed most commonly called groundnut, goober, and peanut...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4675/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.1725/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Newly Released Data Shows Live Hog Output By Province By the end of last week, all provinces across China finished reporting their live hog outpu...

PM Post - Awaiting New Signals

THE OPEN November beans:  4 3/4 higher December meal:  .10 higher December soyoil:  68 higher December corn:  2 1/4 higher December whe...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 26-30, July 2021 Prices in the domestic Russian grain market moved in different directions with a downward trend getting weaker unde...

Technical Views - Wheat Has Strength

SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 1.27c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.56%.   Sep/Dec corn inverse trades at a small carry from 3/4c to 1 3/4c, while...

AM Outlook - Chop, Chop, Chop

GOOD MORNING, Prices started the session mainly mixed but turning two-sided during the overnight hours.  Funds were net sellers yesterday as prices ch...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5175/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.245/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Conditions for Stagflation – 1970s versus 2020s

Last week the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the real, or inflation adjusted, GDP estimate for Q2 2021 showing the economy growing at 6.5...

Consumers Switch Off OJ

As noted in yesterday’s piece on the broader dynamics of citrus and global trade, U.S. production faces several different headwinds. One that is part...

PM Post - Selling Pressure into Range Lows

THE OPEN November beans:  24 lower December meal: 4.20 lower December soyoil:  110 pts lower December corn:  3 1/2 lower December wheat:&nbs...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  4 August is the one-year anniversary of the fertilizer explosion in Beirut port that killed 2...

Technical Views - Defensive Day

SPREADS Sep. crush trades 1.30c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.0%.  Sep/Dec corn trades out to 1 1/2c carry from 1/2c, while Dec/March trades out to 8...

AM Outlook - Dropping on Better Conditions

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board on slightly better than expected crop ratings for beans.  Corn crop ratings were actually 2% lower, bu...

Capitalism’s Advantage; Capitalism’s Challenge

Capitalism’s Advantage The so-called “squad” of socialists in the American Democratic party ran into a buzzsaw when it comes to Cuba. The...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5925/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.295/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close. ...

Citrus Dynamics

While the U.S. remains a major producer of citrus fruit, it is also a major consumer of the products and thus is increasingly dependent on imports. Over th...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 9.2 percent last week, bringing the total harvest to 82 percent of the planted area. The harvest is 12 percent...

Senate Takes Up Infrastructure Bill Today

After working over the weekend, the Senate now has drafted 3,000 pages of legislative text for the bi-partisan infrastructure package. As of this morning,...

PM Post - More Upside

THE OPEN November beans:  4 lower December meal:  1.80 higher December soyoil:  60 lower December corn:  3 1/2 higher December wheat:&n...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine is increasingly becoming the dominant supplier of grains from the Black Sea region. Ukrainian grain exports are up 49 percent Y...

Technical Views - Getting In, Getting Out

SPREADS  Sep. crush trades to 1.25c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.40%.  Corn spreads are weaker with Sep/Dec now trading into new lows at 3/4c c...

AM Outlook - Will Wheat Pull the Market Higher?

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with soyoil seeing pressure due to profit-taking in oilshare,  while wheat futures remain firm.  Soyoil futures fo...

Legal Brief by Species

It’s been a busy week for meat and poultry lawsuits. There have been three significant legal developments in the protein sector – broilers, por...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4525/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.0375/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close...

PM Post - Rain Shakeup

THE OPEN November beans:  15 lower December meal: 2.10 lower December soyoil:  71 lower December corn:  5 3/4 lower December wheat:  5...

Loving Protectionism; Something or Everything at MC12

Loving Protectionism Market access barriers protect domestic workers and that is why they are so difficult to get rid of, even when they are wrong. U.S. Co...

Volatility in Eggs

The production of beef is inherently volatile due to cyclical nature of cattle, on top of market factors. Poultry are not thought to be as susceptible to v...

AM Outlook - More Sideways Chop

GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower on first notice day for August futures.   Wetter weather and end-of-week profit-taking dominates price action.&nbs...

Technical Views - Cycling Lower

SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 1.28c/bu while oilshare trades down to 47.87%. Sep/Dec corn trades from 3c to 1 1/2c inverse, while Dec/March trades from 7 1/...

Ag Review - July 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the impacts of climate change, c...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 515,200 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 9 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Cor...

Market Commentary: Thirsty Thursday

Crops are thirsty for water and the bartenders in the futures market today raised their prices. The ongoing North American drought prompted the Internation...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.565/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.0525/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close. ...

Where China and Russia Differ; Inflation/Infrastructure

Where China and Russia Differ U.S. President Joe Biden calls China a “most serious competitor” and dismisses Russia as having nothing but nucle...

China In-Country Analysis

Environment Once in a Thousand-Year Rainfall Devastates Henan Province While the Western U.S. has suffered from a major heat wave, drought, and massive fir...

PM Post - Building Gains within Trading Ranges

THE OPEN November beans:  12 higher December meal:  3.00 higher December soyoil:  62 higher December corn:  3 higher December wheat:&nb...

Technical Views - Upward Momentum

SPREADS  Sep. crush trades to 1.27c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.79%.  August /Nov bean inverse rallies to 71c before giving up some of its gai...

AM Outlook - Higher Wheat and Oilshare

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher as more reports of a devastated wheat crop in North Dakota roll in.  Extreme heat in the Northern Plains and in the Mi...

Cure Worse than the Disease

Former Deputy USTR C.J. Mahoney had some sage analysis this week regarding the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), aka Fast Track that expired earlier this mo...

Chick Cost Dilemma

Germany and France announced an official policy against culled male chicks in the egg-laying business. As noted by other analysts, it is a problem recogniz...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 July 2021 Prices continue to decrease in the domestic Russian grain market in most regions where sellers still haven’t c...

PM Post - Bearish Mood Despite the Rally

THE OPEN November beans:  7 higher December meal:  .40 higher December soyoil:  58 higher December corn:  3 higher December wheat: ...

Technical News - A Bounce

SPREADS  Sep. crush trades to 1.24c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.45%.   Sep/Dec corn inverse weakens to 1 3/4c from 2 3/4c, while the Dec/...

AM Outlook - Purchase Rumors and Weather

GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer as more rumors of possible Chinese business and hot and dry temperatures for this week underpin futures.  Wheat leads...

Changing Climate for Farm Disaster Payments

The House Agriculture Committee passed a bill providing additional farm emergency payments under the Wildfires and Hurricanes Indemnity Program – Plu...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4625/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.745/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&n...

Security Trumps Economics

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week but do not expect any help for U.S. farmers. The two plan to ta...

PM Post - Funds Sell Rallies

THE OPEN November beans:  18 higher December meal:  6.60 higher December soyoil:  50 pts higher December corn:  9 1/4 higher December w...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Eid holidays have limited business activity in the past week in the MENA region – all w...

Technical Views - Higher in Ranges

SPREADS October crush trades to 1.15c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.58%.   Sep/Dec corn inverse continues to weaken, trading down to 2 1/2c from...

AM Outlook - Technical Reversal; Poorer Crop Ratings

GOOD MORNING, Overnight prices were firmer on the technical reversal from yesterday and lower than expected crop progress ratings.  Chartists and tech...

Future Industry Impacts; Minimum Wage and Farm Labor

Future Industry Impacts The push toward shorter supply chains and plant-based food products will have perverse impacts on the food marketing industry. For...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4675/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.77/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...

More Duties on Fertilizer

On 30 June, the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) received a petition to impose countervailing duties (CVD) and anti-dumping duties (AD) on imports of urea...

Costly Morning Joe

Brazil is the largest producer of coffee in the world, representing 40 percent of global production, and recent freeze damage is expected to drive global c...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina Finally, Argentina’s corn harvest had a week with strong progress. Farmers harvested 10 percent of the fields, bringing total harvest...

PM Post - Soyoil the Only Constant

THE OPEN November beans: 11 lower December meal:  3.50 lower December soyoil:  15 higher December corn:  4 1/2 lower December wheat:  1...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  After recent, disastrous flooding, the European weather is clearing and allowing harvest to accelerate. The flooding in Germany and Bel...

Technical Views - Headed Lower

SPREADS Crush is higher today with November trading to 1.24c/bu and oilshare at 47.63%.   Sep/Dec corn inverse trades from 3 3/4c to 5 1/4c, whil...

AM Outlook - Declining Demand and OI

GOOD MORNING, Prices started the night with more losses as we head into the last week of July.  The lack of demand and overall reductions in fund leng...

Cattle on Feed

USDA reported U.S. Cattle on Feed down 1% Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or mo...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.43/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.84/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&nb...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Different Value-Added

USDA/FAS reports that excessive rains hit Chile earlier this year and damaged a wide swath of that country’s grape crop. What is notable is the conce...

PM Post - Bailing Out for the Weekend

THE OPEN November beans:  5 lower December meal:  3.80 lower December soyoil:  90 higher December corn:  1 1/4 lower December wheat:&nb...

Technical Views - Still Sideways

SPREADS We continue to see positive crush margins in the US, with August at 99c/bu and Sep. at 1.31c/bu.  August oilshare trades to 47.70% and Sep. is...

AM Outlook - Unwinding

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning with higher oilshare and soyoil and firm wheat, vs. weaker beans, meal, and corn.   Traders were busy...

Market Commentary: Weather Whiplash

While the gyrations in the equities market are based on things like earnings and risks from inflation or COVID, agricultural commodities are all about the...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, down $0.185 from yesterday's close...

Green Measures Have Consequences; Good Choice at FAS

Green Measures Have Consequences Under France’s new Climate and Resilience law, farmers must reduce their emissions from nitrogen fertilizer by 15 pe...

PM Post - Weather or Not

THE OPEN November beans: 25 lower December meal: 5.60 lower December soyoil:  130 pts lower December corn:  13 lower December wheat:  14 low...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 473,200 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 11 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. Co...

Technical Views - Sideways and Lower

SPREADS August crush trades to 95c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.76%.  Sep/Dec corn trades up to 4 1/2c from 3 1/2c while Dec/March carry trades from...

AM Outlook - Weathered Downward

GOOD MORNING, Prices took a turn lower as selling surfaced in Minneapolis wheat as rains crossed areas of Canada and the Great Lakes region.  Minneapo...

Energy versus Ag; Quacks Like a Duck; Much Precedent

Energy versus Ag The Biden White House is reportedly undecided over biofuel blend mandates for 2021 and 2022 and is being asked to intervene in Mexico&rsqu...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.1075/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Got Your Goat

The Washington Post featured an article about goat cheese production in the U.S. It notes that the number of dairy goats has increased nearly 132 percent s...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog and White Feather Broiler Prices Fall on Rising Supplies Even with the National Merchant Reserve Center stepping in to buy up surplus po...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 July 2021 Prices continue to decrease in the domestic Russian grain market, but in some regions, they were slightly up. Averag...

PM Post - Trading Ranges Affirmed

THE OPEN November beans:  2 higher December meal:  3.70 higher December soyoil:  70 lower December corn:  5 higher December wheat: ...

AM Outlook - Grains Firmer; Soyoil Weaker

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed, with soyoil lower and more buy meal/sell soyoil spread trade. After the close yesterday, the EPA announced they would delay...

Technical Views - Finding Values

SPREADS August crush trades to 99c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.27%.  Sep crush is 1.28c/bu with oil share at 46.77%.   Sep/Dec corn inver...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.6575/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $7.005/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...

Popularity and Planning

Demand for the Andean pseudo-cereal quinoa has seen impressive growth and production has expended to meet it. Mushrooms are the new plant-based substitute...

Short Supply Chain Fallacy; Border Tax Mayhem

Short Supply Chain Fallacy Buy local is tribal but has quaint, emotive appeal. The EU is giving policy support to short supply chains, provided they do not...

PM Post - Rebound but Directional Strength is Weak

THE OPEN November beans:  18 higher December meal:  4.50 higher December soyoil:  67 higher December corn:  13 1/4 higher December whea...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates  MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Saudi Arabia flour mill sales for the Second and Fourth Milling Companies has reportedl...

Am Outlook - Rebound

GOOD MORNING, Commodities and equities saw a nice rebound to start the night.  All posted gains at the start of the trading session, including soyoil...

Technical Views - Retracement and Filling Gaps

SPREADS August crush trades to 97.28c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.87%.  Sep oilshare trades to 47.27%.  Sep/Dec corn spread is firmer with an...

PNW Heatwave Impacts

The Pacific Northwest (PNW) of the U.S. is suffering drought and a heatwave rarely seen in recent history. The white wheat crop has been damaged for sure b...

E15 Legislation Proposed

As we previously reported (6 July), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration EPA’s decision to provide a wai...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5225/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.9775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Brazil  The Brazilian corn production estimates look poor indeed. The combination of intense drought and recent frost/freeze events caused huge,...

PM Post - Turning Lower

THE OPEN November beans:  3 higher December meal:  3.90 higher December soyoil:  52 lower December corn:  6 higher December wheat: ...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Weather continues to drive almost every market involving a crop planted in the ground. Flooding across Germany and parts of western Eur...

Technical Views - New Lines of Support

SPREADS Sep crush trades to 1.24c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.70%.  August oilshare trades to new highs at 48.32%.  Sep/Dec corn inverse leaks...

AM Outlook - Weather Reversal

GOOD MORNING, If the rains washed away gains over the last several weeks, a bit of hot and dry is now turning prices higher.  In the meantime, the Com...

The First Shot; Bad Shot

The First Shot U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping faced off today in a virtual meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Council (APEC) b...

Bearish Dairy and Lower Production Forecast

Drought, feed costs, and supply are weighing on milk production. The latest monthly data show that May daily milk production per cow is down half a pound f...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Hunger at Home, Food Abroad

Bloomberg reports a dramatic increase in hunger in India last year due to the economic losses from COVID. The Centre for Sustainable Employment in India be...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.52/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.925/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. ...

PM Post - Wide Ranges, Watch Buying

THE OPEN November beans: 15 higher December meal:  4.40 higher December soyoil:  71 higher December corn:  6 higher December wheat:  15...

Technical Views - Eyes on Weather

SPREADS August crush trades to 90c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.63%.  Corn inverses are slightly weaker as new buying comes into December.  Sep...

AM Outlook - Upside Follow Through

GOOD MORNING,  Prices continue to firm in the overnight session with wheat gaining on corn, and meal on soyoil, for a change.  Weekly export sale...

Market Commentary: Weather Attention

The Fed continues to describe inflation as transient but said this week it is prepared to raise interest rates if proven wrong. Several business leaders ar...

Reality Check; Worker-Centric; Fit for 55

Reality Check The Mexican government says that it will halve the volume of corn imports by 2024 while concurrently eliminating the use of glyphosate. Meanw...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5625/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.72/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

PM Post - Thin and Choppy

THE OPEN Nov beans:  2 higher Dec meal:  2.90 lower Dec soyoil:  70 higher Dec corn:  1/2 lower Dec wheat:  5 higher  The mar...

Export Sales

USDA reports for the period July 2-8, 2021 Wheat:  Net sales of 424,700 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 46 percent from the previous week and 4...

AM Outlook - Congestion and Mixed Weather

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue in congestion trade with rains this week bearish but hot and dry forecasts next week keeping markets well supported.  Hi...

Technical Views - Staying in Bandwidth

SPREADS August crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare prices are 47.83%.  August /Nov bean inverse remains supported trading from 70c to 76 3/4c, while...

Market Commentary: Mind the Gaps

The CBOT was sharply higher on Wednesday with the July grain contracts officially rolling off the board. Twenty-six contracts of July corn were traded this...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.18 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.5425/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. ...

Conceding Market Share; Nationalist Diet

Conceding Market Share American agricultural exporters long ago gave up on hopes of boosting their market share in Europe but now Europe may be conceding o...

Reason to Produce

The countries producing the largest number of soybeans and corn are responding to current elevated prices. However, the response is uneven. China is switch...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomic Trends Food Prices in June See Biggest Decline Since November The average cost of food this past June fell by 1.7 percent from a year ago. Th...

PM Post - Seeking Value Levels

THE OPEN November beans:  15 higher December meal:  2.90 higher December soyoil:  49 higher December corn:  6 1/2 higher December wheat...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 July 2021 The domestic Russian grain market continued to switch to 2021 yield prices , and as a result prices decreased. Winter...

AM Outlook - Higher into the Open

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher heading into the open.  July futures expire today as noontime, and July corn placed a new contract high for the week a...

Technical Views - Up

SPREADS August crush trades up to 86c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.74%.  August /Nov bean inverse strengthens to 68 3/4c from 61 1/2c while Sep/Nov...

Past is Prologue; AMLO’s Advice; Chinese Land Grab

Past is Prologue Jeffrey Garten is a Yale University dean and a former official in four different U.S. administrations. His latest book, Three Days at Camp...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.3375/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Forest for the Trees

The spike in woods prices earlier this year has now subsided but there are longer term issues that need to be addressed. The production of forest products...

PM Post - Technical Recovery

THE OPEN November beans:  6 higher December meal:  4.50 lower December soyoil:  155 pts higher December corn:  1/2 lower December wheat...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Eid Holidays Muslim countries in the region will be closed for the Eid Al Adha religious cele...

AM Outlook - Report Has Come and Gone

GOOD MORNING, The report has come and gone, and in its wake set the trend for higher oilshare and higher beans vs corn.  The bullish wheat report set...

Technical Views - Mostly Firmer

SPREADS August crush trades to 90.51c/bu while oilshare trades to 48.29%.  August / Nov bean inverse trades from 54 1/2c to 52 1/4c, while Sep/Nov tra...

WASDE Soyoil

USDA’s July outlook for soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents...

WASDE Soymeal

USDA’s July outook for soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month.  ...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s July outlook for U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, unchanged from last month.  Harvested area, forecast at 86...

WASDE Corn

USDA’s July outlook for U.S. corn in 2021/22 is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. ...

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s July outlook for U.S. wheat in 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks.  Supplies ar...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.4075/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close. ...

Cuban Tipping Point; Antitrust China; Kick Me

Cuban Tipping Point U.S. aggies have pushed for and dreamed about access to the Cuban market for decades. Despite its relatively small size (11 million peo...

Meat and Health

Some health advocates are pushing the narrative that plant-based diets are not only better for the planet but also good for one’s health. If true, th...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is still moving slowly due to high moisture content in the grain. Harvest has advanced just 8 percent in the past two w...

PM Post - Lows Printed, Back to Weather

THE OPEN Nov beans:  3 1/2 higher Dec meal:  1.40 lower December soyoil:  60 pts higher December corn:  2 3/4 higher December wheat:&nb...

AM Outlook - Light Position Evening

GOOD MORNING, It is report day and traders do not expect to see many changes in the numbers, particularly where yields are concerned.  The report will...

Technical Views - Slow at Open

SPREADS September crush trades to 1.22c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.74%.  August / Nov bean inverse trade from 48c to 54 1/2c while Sep/Nov trades...

EO “Attempts” Competitive Ag Economy

Much of the Biden Administration’s agriculture agenda was furthered today by an Executive Order (EO) issued from the White House while Secretary Vils...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.17/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.15/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 290,800 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2021/2022.   Corn:  Net sales of 173,200 MT...

Policy Retribution; Just in Time for the Weekend

Policy Retribution California is big, wealthy and has a great climate, everything that would create jealousy from other states. Then Sacramento makes the s...

Missing Vegetables

Some policymakers are signaling the desire for us to eat less meat and consume more vegetables. The question is whether the agricultural system is prepared...

PM Post - Mid-day Trend into the Close

THE OPEN November beans: 3 1/2 lower December meal:  1.70 lower December soyoil:  16 higher December corn:  7 lower December wheat:  3...

Technical Views - Weaker Signals

SPREADS August crush trades to 84.39c/bu while oilshare remains steady at 46.0%.  Sep/Dec corn inverse strengthens to 15 1/4c from 13 1/4c.  &nbs...

AM Outlook - Looking for Price Direction

GOOD MORNING, The markets seem to have run out of price direction except for the continuation of small fund liquidation into end-user pricing interest.&nbs...

Market Commentary: Fracking Brilliance; Uh Oh

We only analyze petroleum as a big sister commodity greatly influencing commodity indices (and thus ags) but right now something notable is happening. Oil...

U.S. Red Meat Exports Winning the Long Game

The May export data is in. Pork export volume was the third highest on record behind March 2020 and March 2021. Beef export volume set a historic record (a...

Courts to Trump EO; Labor Trumps Ag; Greens Trump Ag

Courts to Trump EO A new Executive Order (EO) by President Biden is easy politics but difficult law. The order will supposedly allow livestock producers to...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2375/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.18/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&...

PM Post - CBOT Sideways in Congestion Mode

THE OPEN: Nov beans: 10 lower Dec meal: 2.00 lower Dec soyoil: 65 lower Dec corn: 4 lower Dec wheat: 3 lower The markets opened as called with prices con...

Technical Views - Downward Slope

SPREADS  August crush trades to 91.90c/bu while oilshare trades 45.61%.  August /Nov bean inverse trades to 43 1/2c down to 39 1/4c., while Sep/N...

AM Outlook - Grinding Sideways

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue grinding sideways into next Monday's July WASDE report.  Traders continue to liquidate length and oilshare.  Beans...

We Have The Meat

There are a lot of voices discouraging the consumption of meat but for much of the world, demand continues to grow. Most of that demand growth is in Asia a...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close.  Sep 21 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&...

Worker-Centric Suicide; Politics are Back

Worker-Centric Suicide The Biden Administration says it wants a worker-centric trade policy, but no one is quite sure what that means. The workers at U.S...

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