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CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

GMO Debate Over; More China Calculations

GMO Debate Over Mark Twain may have said that a lie travels around the globe while the truth is putting on its shoes and the adage is truer today than ever...

Taking a Closer Look at a Few Details About the RVOs

There was a lot to sort through on Tuesday’s RVO announcement. Below is a look at some key issues.  SREs: There has been a lot of media coverage...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8525/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilseeds Situation Update

A summary of the bullish and bearish supply, demand and policy machinations affecting the global oilseeds sector. Supply Bullish Argentina: Soybean planted...

Export Sales

Export Sales for Nov 26 to Dec 2,2021.  Wheat:  Net sales of 239,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week, bu...

WASDE Soyoil

Soyoil: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for soyoil to average 65 cents per pound in the 2021/22 season. ...

WASDE Soymeal

Soymeal: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for meal price to increased $5.00 to $330.00 per short ton...

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. Soybean crush is unchanged but soybean oil production is raised on a higher ext...

WASDE Corn

Corn: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.45 per bushel. Global coarse...

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for a small increase in U.S. ending stock because exports are lowered 20 million bushels. U.S. export prices...

Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE

USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” ch...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7675/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&n...

Congressional Reform; Inflation Rate

Congressional Reform The U.S. Congress is held in general low regard by the American public. Seen as petty, partisan and dysfunctional, the institution doe...

WASDE, 2022 Cattle Prices and 2021 Pork Imports

Today’s WASDE shows total red meat and poultry production finishing the year slightly below last month’s forecasts, though up 0.3 percent from...

Changes in Chemical Usage

The U.S./Canada and Europe have increased pesticide usage only slightly over the past two decades whereas South America’s usage has grown by almost 1...

Wishful Thinking; Better Buyers than Sellers; Siloed Market

Wishful Thinking The EU is developing a new trade policy intended to rapidly respond to “coercive measures” by third countries, such as Donald...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.8725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.945/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Muyuan’s Credit Default Sends Shockwave Through Industry Based on recent reports from the Shanghai Commercial Paper Exchange (SHCPE), more...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 November-3 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices decreased mainly due to downward trends on international wheat markets...

Corruption Focus; Next Transportation Fuel

Corruption Focus The Biden Administration will emphasize its Strategy on Countering Corruption at this week’s Summit for Democracy. Shell companies w...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.86/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.085/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...

Government Led Nutrition

Everyone knows China loves pork, but its new affinity is dairy. Throughout Chinese history, dairy was mostly associated with nomadic tribes, like the dread...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Pakistan has agreed that the transportation of 50,000 MT wheat from India to Afghanistan, via...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.835/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.0625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Growing Threat to Trade

Russia is positioning to invade Ukraine if it wants, and China is seeking to put a military base on the Atlantic in Equatorial Guinea. Then there is China&...

Brazilian Beef and BSE

Brazilian Minister of Agriculture, Tereza Cristina, has stated she’s hopeful Brazil will be shipping beef to China again this month. Brazil’s l...

Hurdles for Beef

Making beef is challenging, and making good beef is even more complicated. It requires far more resources than competing animal proteins, which is why glob...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia continues to build its troop presence on the border with Ukraine and has mobilized some 170,000 troops to the region. That is 70...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest continues at high speed with 12 percent harvested this week. The total has now reached 45 percent of the planted area...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.84/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.0375/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Greens on Defense; Apparel Peril; NAFTA Changes Parties

Greens on Defense For decades the policy bible for Greens in Europe has included scriptures against GMO’s and nuclear energy. But GMO’s can aid...

Cotton Beats Wheat

There is much consternation over the fact that global stocks-to-use in wheat is down to 12.5 percent and as a result, the price of the March SRW contract i...

Market Commentary: Omicron Correction

It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indicat...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.7675/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.15/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. ...

Energy and Food Lessons; Implications of Ukraine; Omicron Buys WTO Time

Energy and Food Lessons Energy and food prices are spiking at the same time policy reform advocates are seeking wholesale changes in the production of both...

Livestock Round Up: Broiler Production Ramping Up

The broiler production is looking strong for the new year. Chick hatching for placements in October was up 6 percent year-over-year. That’s the large...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Senior Ag Ministry Official Warns of Sustained Low Hog Prices In a recent interview, the Deputy Director of MARA’s Animal Husbandry and Vet...

Export Sales

Export Sales for November 19-25, 2021. Wheat:  Net sales of 79,900 metric tons (MT) for2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 86 percent from the...

Market Commentary: Ag Markets Bounce, Pullback as Omicron Detected in U.S.

The CBOT started the day higher with corn and the soy complex leading the way after “buy on the bounce” and “risk on” trade develop...

China Strategy; Biotech Breakout

China Strategy The U.S., EU and Japan have agreed to collaborate on how to deal with non-market economic practices – read China. The debate over how...

AI Impact

As the media tracks the spread of the Omicron version of COVID, there are reports of additional outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in Eu...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.715/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.905/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions, but the changes were not dramatic. They took place ma...

Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)

“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets wer...

Anti-vaxxers Come to Ag; Identity Politics Come to Trade

Anti-vaxxers Come to Ag The Green Revolution created modern agriculture, which has been called a mechanism for turning fossil fuels (inputs) into food. In...

COVID Variant Inflation

The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing today entitled, “CARES Act Oversight of Treasury and the Federal Reserve: Building a Resilient Economy.&r...

Aussie Wheat Importance

Although Australia produces less than 5 percent of global wheat output, it is typically the world’s fourth largest exporter. Due to its tendency towa...

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.675/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8725/bushel, down $0.35 from yesterday's close.&n...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Pakistan and India are having difficulty in agreeing on the method to move Indian wheat to Af...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

December’s Legislative Traffic Jam

Congress has a busy December ahead of it, including keeping the government open and increasing the Treasury Department’s borrowing authority. As it s...

Summary of Futures

 Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.81/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.2225/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's clo...

India’s Dangerous Reversal; Dems vs. Coms

India’s Dangerous Reversal Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent reversal on farm policy reforms will reverberate for years to come. Ess...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Last week was a short one for trading with Monday having been an Argentine holiday and Thursday marking the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Markets were, of cou...

Poultry Politics

Inflation is worrisome to the public and so politicians feel compelled to deflect any blame from themselves. Thus, President Biden called for an FTC invest...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  France has detected the highly pathogenic bird flu virus on a farm in the northern part of the country, officials said on Saturday. The...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.8675/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.4025/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...

Cancellation of Convenience; Fox in the Henhouse

Cancellation of Convenience The WTO’s 12th ministerial conference scheduled to begin next week has reportedly been postponed due to news of a new COV...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 567,500 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 42 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior4-week average. Cor...

Delayed RVOs Leads to Pushing Back RFS Compliance Deadlines

Recently, WPI reported on the Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit hearing about the timeline for the required volume obligations (...

Happy Thanksgiving

U.S. markets, including the CBOT and CME, are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 25 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.5025/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close...

China Does it Again

Tomorrow is “turkey-day” in the U.S. but today the story is beef. Prices are up nearly 30 percent and while the cattle cycle is part of the sto...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Feed Demand Slows in Q4  Data from the surveys of China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) Affairs and the China Feed...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions. Export duties continued to increase. Export milling w...

Farm Bill Outlook; China Phase One

Farm Bill Outlook Former Congressional staffer turned University of Illinois professor Jonathon Coppess correctly opines that negotiation on the 2023 farm...

How Sweet it Isn't

  Two major U.S. sugar processors, U.S. Sugar and Imperial Sugar planned a merger, but the Justice Department is saying no. It warns that the duopoly...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.805/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.675/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close.  J...

SPR Release Turns Out to be Bullish

President Biden ordered the release of 50 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to ease gas prices. The release will be...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Bangladesh reports that the lowest offer under its 50,000 MT wheat tender is $409.77 MT CNF L...

Build Back Better Legislation Through the House

The House passed the scaled back version of the President’s Build Back Better reconciliation bill; the original package was $3.5 trillion, what got t...

Inflation Blame-Shifting; India’s Un-Reform

Inflation Blame-Shifting President Joe Biden has asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate the major oil companies for raising the cost of the fuel...

GM Advantage

Eggplant (Brinjal) is one of the more important vegetables consumed in South Asia. It is low in nutrients but provides bulk and fiber while also being high...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7675/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.4575/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s government has already started playing games with the export declarations allowances. They reopened the export registry for additional qu...

Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed, in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head, totaled 11.9 million head on November 1, 2021. The inventory was slightly below Novem...

True Conclusion; All the Above

True Conclusion Art Cullen, publisher of Iowa’s The Storm Lake Times, correctly opines that most farmers want to protect the soil and the environment...

Neutral Cattle on Feed Report

USDA released its monthly cattle on feed report today showing a total inventory of cattle and calves in feed yards of 11.9 million head on 1 November, whic...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.23/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...

Russia's Wheat Export Tax

Russia has exploded as a wheat exporter, tripling its sales in just a decade. By contrast, domestic consumption grew some but has been relatively stagnant...

Market Commentary: Record Gains, Then Losses

It was a strange trading day with twists and turns that were at a minimum, unusual: Grains and oilseeds all closed higher overnight and then continued th...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.73/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.2/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

State-led Chips; Grand Bargain Needed

State-led Chips Governments around the world spend billions of dollars in pursuit of food security and now the focus has expanded to computer security. Chi...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle Marketing Legislation Proposed

The cattle marketing bill we reported was being developed (9 November) was introduced yesterday in both the House and Senate. It is a mash-up of two cash m...

Export Sales

Exports for November 5-11, 2021 Wheat:  Net sales of 399,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 40 percent from the previous week and 21 percent f...

Selective Application; Missing Agenda

Selective Application The EU proposed a new regulation requiring due diligence on the part of companies marketing specific products (soybeans, beef, palm o...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7525/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.2225/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Prices Fall Again But Pace Slows With the average prices for fresh vegetables climbing by 15.9 percent year-on-year in October, the cos...

Food System Speed Bumps

There were plenty of critics of the food system before the pandemic and the disruptions it caused prompted even more over-the-top accusations of total fail...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions and changed insignificantly. Export duties continued to...

Where’s the RVO?

The House Agriculture Committee’s Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit held a hearing today on the “Renewable Economy in Rur...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.71/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.1025/bushel, down $0.16 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Activist Math; COP26 and Biotech Future

Activist Math In the latest analytical miss by the activist group Food & Water Watch, “The Economic Cost of Food Monopolies: The Grocery Cartels,...

“Infrastructure” Package Details

Now that the new infrastructure bill has been signed into law, we almost know what is in it. While it is called an infrastructure bill, a little over a qua...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Iraq says it intends to tender for 500,000 MT of wheat in December 2021 or early 2022. The te...

Summary of Futures

CORN December 2021 ($/bu)                      &nb...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

October Ethanol Production a Blip Not a Trend According to EIA

Last week’s WASDE raised the outlook for corn used in ethanol production by 50 million bushels based on September data from USDA’s Grain Crushi...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Brazil Last week Brazil became the first country to authorize the use of wheat flour made with genetically modified (GM) wheat (specifically, the HB4...

Orange Juice is Fleeting

In the spring of 2020 as COVID-19 was spreading, U.S. consumption of orange juice increased as consumers sought to inoculate themselves with vitamin C. How...

COP26 Informs MC12; He Who Pays; Tech Sovereignty

COP26 Informs MC12 COP26 has ended and MC12 is about to begin and while the substance is vastly different, both share the goal of reaching global agreement...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.17/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Exports for October 29 to November 4, 2021 Wheat:  Net sales of 285,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 29 percent from the previous week and...

Worsening Food Prices

Key agricultural commodity prices have risen sharply over the past two years, some reaching their highest level in a decade (see graph below). Now the UN s...

Corn versus Soybean Acres in 2022

High crop prices and generally tight stocks are bullish for fertilizer prices, from a demand-pull side. But fertilizer prices are also up on supply-push fa...

Market Commentary: Whether and Weather

The USDA Export Sales report is delayed until tomorrow due to today’s Veterans Day holiday and so it is not definitive whether China has been in the...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle Price Rally

This week’s WASDE forecast showed total meat and broiler production increased slightly over last month’s projections. Beef is up on increased s...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.695/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.125/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...

Inflation is Good; Transitory Fake Meat; Not so Fast; Fading Green

Inflation is Good The news yesterday about the surprising rise in U.S. inflation spooked markets and has President Biden’s team scrambling to avoid p...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.6925/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.03/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. ...

CAFTA-DR Rewrite; Phase One Failure; Divergent Transatlantic

CAFTA-DR Rewrite When the CAFTA-DR FTA was finalized back in 2004, GDP in the Central American region was 30 percent smaller. Since that time, growth as be...

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends U.S. Ag Exports to China Set Record Through September For the first nine months of 2021, the U.S. has shipped a total of 37.17 MMT of agricult...

No N, No GMO, No Food

Some environmentalists were aghast at the COP26 meeting when mega-billionaire and serial do-gooder Bill Gates described nitrogen fertilizer as “magic...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 November 2021 The Russian grain market was very slow due to nationwide holidays. Export milling wheat average offer price grew t...

WASDE Soyoil

The U.S. season-average soyoil price for 2020/21 is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

WASDE Soymeal

The U.S. season-average soymeal price for 2020/21 is unchanged at $325 per short ton...

WASDE Soybeans

The November WASDE projected U.S. soybean ending stocks at 340 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 20 million from the October fore...

WASDE Corn

The November WASDE projected U.S. corn ending stocks at 1,493 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. This estimate is down 7 million from the October fore...

WASDE Wheat

The November WASDE projected U.S. wheat ending stocks at 583 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 3 million from the October forecas...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.785/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...

New Cattle Market Mandate Bill Developed

As we reported in March, Senator Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) introduced his 50/14 cash marketing plan for the fed cattle market. The proposed legislation wou...

Inflation Sparks Changes; China Hits Unions

Inflation Sparks Changes Food is one of the four essentials of life and yet politicians often tax it domestically and impose tariffs against its importatio...

Beef: Where East Meets West

Beef demand in East Asia is on a long-term trend upward. Fulfilling this demand has required increased imports, primarily from Australia, Brazil, and the U...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Bangladesh poultry industry leaders have asked the government to help their suffering industr...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.515/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.68/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...

Blame the Golden Goose; Sour Mystery; Port Protectionism

Blame the Golden Goose The COP26 meeting in Glasgow continues this week and developing nations are demanding that rich countries compensate them for climat...

Infrastructure Bill Headed to President’s Desk

The House of Representatives passed the bipartisan infrastructure bill late Friday; the legislation had already passed the Senate in August, so the package...

Crop Winners and Losers

USDA issued its annual, departmental consensus, ten-year outlook for U.S. agriculture that may be viewed as the winners and losers for the decade ahead. Wi...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Argentine farmers have harvested 680,000 hectares of wheat, which equates to 10.5 percent of the planted area. Rains fell during the last two weeks b...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s farmers have planted 90 percent of the 7.1 Mha of winter crops, including 6.1 Mha of wheat and 0.844 Mha of winter barl...

Wrong Subsidies; Net-Zero; Obvious Taxes

Wrong Subsidies Green groups remind us constantly that small, extensive agriculture is better for the environment than are large “corporate” fa...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.53/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.665/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&n...

Takeaways from Economic Data Reports

There has been a plethora of economic data reports this first week of November, plus a Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) meeting of the Federal Reserve...

Market Commentary: Higher Open Quickly Collapses

Most markets opened higher but very shortly thereafter most collapsed and by the end of the session, only lean hogs eked out a net gain. The flip was influ...

Livestock Round Up: Beef and Butter for the Holidays

As of today, week to date cattle slaughter is 99.7 percent of the same period last week. Last Thursday, we speculated that last week’s slaughter &ldq...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5925/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.7375/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close...

COP26 Fallout; China Calls Bluff?; Right to Food Quirkiness

COP26 Fallout The Global Alliance for the Future of Food complains that most of the Nationally Determined Contribution plans they examined for meeting COP2...

Export Sales

Export data for October22-28, 2021.  Wheat:  Net sales of 400,100 metric tons (MT) for2021/2022 were up 49 percent from the previous week and 4 p...

Wrong Question; Worse to Come; Cows Exempt

Wrong Question In the 1980 presidential campaign just before Thanksgiving, inflation was soaring, and Iran held American diplomats’ hostage. Candidat...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.64/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.81/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...

Beer Pressures

Global supply chain issues are pressuring many industries, but beer makers face a complex set of issues. Prices have risen for malt barley, aluminum, labor...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Prices Down Again in September The impact of cratering live hog prices in September showed up in the recent monthly data release from C...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 25-29 October 2021 Average prices on the Russian grain market mainly grew. Exporters had to decrease their bid prices on the domesti...

House Ag Committee Supply Chain Hearing

Tomorrow, the House Agriculture Committee, will hold a hearing on “The Immediate Challenges to our Nation’s Food Supply Chain” – i...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.73/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.915/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Soymeal Crush versus Exports

Over the past decade, the soybean crush in the top ten countries has increased by nearly 37 percent. Over that same period, soymeal exports amongst the top...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Cyprus' government has set aside €9 million for the support of animal farmers who are su...

Market Commentary: Fund Buying Fuels Contract Highs in Wheat and a Corn Rally

The start of the new month saw funds return to the CBOT as net buyers, chasing corn and wheat higher during today’s rally. Funds were aggressive buye...

Bullish Ethanol Production

USDA released the September Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 2 percent from August, but up 1 percent from September 2...

Green Tumult; Conflicts over China

Green Tumult Going green isn’t easy because it changes the winners and losers, and that means going green isn’t happening without a fight. Euro...

Year of the Pulse

The International Grains Council (IGC) announced that it will include pulses in its definition of grains and expand market information on these products. T...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.79/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.9725/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Despite drought in Argentina that came during the early phases of the wheat crop, rains appeared during the critical yield-defining periods and boost...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The International Grains Council left its forecast of world wheat production unchanged at 781 MMT for 2021/22, but increased the world...

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies to End Strong Week; Hogs Rally while Cattle Fall

Corn and wheat futures were higher again on Friday, but volume was waning as funds slowed their buying pace. The soy complex saw continued but mild strengt...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.6825/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.7275/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Private R&D Leads; Energy Confusion

Private R&D Leads Proponents of public sector agricultural R&D have typically touted the high rate of return on such investments and lamented that...

Competitive Wheat Suppliers

Global wheat bids and offers were more closely aligned at the beginning of 2021 and then splintered as Northern Hemisphere crops became available in the Ma...

Market Commentary: Defying the Calls

The market opened as called but the grains could not be held down for long. By mid-session corn and wheat were back held aloft by trusting bulls despite an...

Right Target

The U.S. and EU attacked China’s subsidies at the WTO’s trade policy review of Beijing’s practices. Not only does China have huge state s...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.6275/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.725/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Exporters for the period October15-21, 2021.  Wheat - Net sales of 269,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 26 percent from the previous week...

Long Answer to Short; No Wiggle Room; Prescriptive Eating

Long Answer to Short WTO Deputy Director-General Angela Ellard explained the role of international trade in addressing climate change at a meeting of &ldqu...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.495/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Volatility in Pistachios

The U.S. first displaced Iran as the world’s leading producer of pistachios in 2012 and for the past four years it has not even been a contest. Iran&...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock New Data Show Regional Production Trends As noted last week, Q3 data show total hog inventory and reproductive sow inventories stood at 437.6 mil...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 October 2021 Average prices on the Russian grain market moved in different directions. Key factors pushing prices down again w...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.495/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close...

Tech City on a Hill; Distance Warms Heart

Tech City on a Hill Some nationalistic political philosophers like to characterize the U.S. as a beacon of hope for democratic ideals and while some will s...

Biden Agenda on Capitol Hill a Game of Political Whack-A-Mole

It’s a critical week on Capitol Hill, both for the Biden Administration’s agenda and more generally, breaking the legislative log jam. First, t...

Shift in Food Inflation Impact

Since agricultural commodities are fungible and tradeable, no region of the world is immune to global price pressures. However, the impact of food price ch...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Iran is reported to be the largest buyer of grain from Russia in the first three months of MY...

Food Inflation Forecast

USDA released its monthly food inflation outlook this morning. First, it’s worth noting the relative weight that each category gets in contributing t...

Hoodwinked by Mexico; Silly Diplomacy; Carbon Outlook

Hoodwinked by Mexico USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack’s announcement last week that Mexican Agriculture Secretary Victor Villalobos assured him that U.S. y...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Exporters have already bought 8 MMT of the 2021/22 crop, out of an export surplus that should be at least 12 MMT, given a 21-MMT crop. Over the past...

Notable TFP Changes

U.S. Secretary for Agriculture Tom Vilsack and EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski will be on the stage together next week at the Forum for th...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The EU Commission reported that the favorable weather conditions across most of Europe “allowed farmers to make good progress&rdq...

Cattle on Feed

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. was 1 percent below October 1, 2020.  Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.38/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.56/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close. ...

Sustainability Impacts; Sustainability Lingo

Sustainability Impacts Policymakers brandishing climate change and sustainability as their objectives may find adverse impacts hitting their home markets h...

Shifting Protein Consumption

By far, Americans consume more animal protein than either China or the EU, but the composition is different. The Chinese and Europeans consume more pork pe...

Market Commentary: Downside of Up

Markets have their ups and downs and today was the downside of up. After pretty much adding points for the last several days, today was a modest correction...

Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview

Tomorrow USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. Analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 October a...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3225/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Read My Lips; Trickle Down Policy; Red Threat

Read My Lips Former U.S. President George H.W. Bush infamously assured voters that he would not raise taxes by saying, “Read my lips.” Once ele...

Export Sales

Exports are for October 8-14, 2021 Wheat:  Net sales of 362,400 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 36 percent from the previous week and 6 perce...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.4925/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. ...

Actions Louder than Words; China Faces WTO

Actions Louder than Words The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released in August and the associated COP26 me...

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Financial Reports Show Top Hog Producers Had Rough Q3 Last week, several major domestic hog producers, also known as “Pork Concept” c...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 October 2021 The average prices on the Russian grain market showed minimal growth. One of the main factors preventing further...

Pick Your Poison

Over the past decade, pesticide sales in Europe have declined by 7 percent. At the same time, organic production has expanded at 5.5 percent a year and now...

Au Contraire; Presidential Absence; Limits of Transparency

Au Contraire U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said this past weekend that passing President Biden’s infrastructure package is the solutio...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.36/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&n...

Sorghum Dominance

Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is the largest sorghum producing region in the world, growing nearly 44 percent of global output. Yet it exports and imports only...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhara Holdings announced plans to build five animal feed facilities in E...

Market Commentary: CBOT Attention Turns to Demand

The CBOT opened mixed with corn and soybeans steady/lower while wheat saw higher trade on tightening global supplies. That early weakness, however, was mos...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.3625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...

Creeping Toward CPTPP

President Biden said he would first build back America’s infrastructure before re-engaging the U.S. in trade agreements. It should be noted that his...

Food Inflation: At Home versus Away from Home

Food inflation continues to be a hot topic. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the consumer price index (CPI) for September. The food index...

Explaining Consumption

Pig meat producers in Europe are suffering the smallest profits in a decade. Reasonable explanations include the impacts of higher feed costs and the loss...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Iran’s grain supply association stated it expects to import 8 MMT of wheat this year due to supply shortages in the country. Much...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina Rumors about a non-official agreement between the government and exporters to cap Argentina’s export sales at 38.5 MMT have been circu...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Export Sales

Export data for October 1-7,2021.  Wheat:  Net sales of 567,600 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 70 percent from the previous week and 42 p...

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2575/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Notable Push Higher

Markets pushed higher for the most part a second day in row, boost by a competitive pricing situation and strong exports. Funds have had to reverse the sel...

High-Cost Energy/Ag Inputs Forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its winter fuels outlook last week, forecasting rising prices for several key agricultural inputs...

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