The CBOT ended mixed in two-sided trade on Friday with the lack of significant changes in Thursday’s WASDE leaving the markets somewhat directionless...
Articles
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
GMO Debate Over; More China Calculations
GMO Debate Over Mark Twain may have said that a lie travels around the globe while the truth is putting on its shoes and the adage is truer today than ever...
Taking a Closer Look at a Few Details About the RVOs
There was a lot to sort through on Tuesday’s RVO announcement. Below is a look at some key issues. SREs: There has been a lot of media coverage...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8525/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseeds Situation Update
A summary of the bullish and bearish supply, demand and policy machinations affecting the global oilseeds sector. Supply Bullish Argentina: Soybean planted...
Export Sales
Export Sales for Nov 26 to Dec 2,2021. Wheat: Net sales of 239,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up noticeably from the previous week, bu...
WASDE Soyoil
Soyoil: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for soyoil to average 65 cents per pound in the 2021/22 season. ...
WASDE Soymeal
Soymeal: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for meal price to increased $5.00 to $330.00 per short ton...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. Soybean crush is unchanged but soybean oil production is raised on a higher ext...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.45 per bushel. Global coarse...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for a small increase in U.S. ending stock because exports are lowered 20 million bushels. U.S. export prices...
Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE
USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” ch...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.7675/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&n...
Congressional Reform; Inflation Rate
Congressional Reform The U.S. Congress is held in general low regard by the American public. Seen as petty, partisan and dysfunctional, the institution doe...
WASDE, 2022 Cattle Prices and 2021 Pork Imports
Today’s WASDE shows total red meat and poultry production finishing the year slightly below last month’s forecasts, though up 0.3 percent from...
Market Commentary: EPA Numbers Crater Soyoil; Export Fears Force Wheat Selloff; Corn, Soybeans Grind Higher
Wheat futures sank lower the day before the December WASDE on concerns that the USDA will cut its U.S. export forecast in the coming report. Certainly, the...
Changes in Chemical Usage
The U.S./Canada and Europe have increased pesticide usage only slightly over the past two decades whereas South America’s usage has grown by almost 1...
Wishful Thinking; Better Buyers than Sellers; Siloed Market
Wishful Thinking The EU is developing a new trade policy intended to rapidly respond to “coercive measures” by third countries, such as Donald...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.8725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.945/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Muyuan’s Credit Default Sends Shockwave Through Industry Based on recent reports from the Shanghai Commercial Paper Exchange (SHCPE), more...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 November-3 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices decreased mainly due to downward trends on international wheat markets...
Market Commentary: Hogs Crumble; EPA Mandate Rumors Support Corn, Pressure Soy Complex
Corn and wheat turned higher on Tuesday while the soy complex sold off despite strength in palm oil futures. Rumors that the EPA will soon announce its bio...
Retro RVOs May Disappoint, but 2022 RVO Bullish Corn and Veg Oil
EPA released its 2022 proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS along with the retroactive 2021 volumes and an adjustment to the 2020 volume...
Corruption Focus; Next Transportation Fuel
Corruption Focus The Biden Administration will emphasize its Strategy on Countering Corruption at this week’s Summit for Democracy. Shell companies w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.86/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.085/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...
Government Led Nutrition
Everyone knows China loves pork, but its new affinity is dairy. Throughout Chinese history, dairy was mostly associated with nomadic tribes, like the dread...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan has agreed that the transportation of 50,000 MT wheat from India to Afghanistan, via...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.835/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.0625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: CBOT Chops Sideways; Wheat Firmer on Russian Troop Movement; Hogs Fall on Weak Cash Prices
The CBOT traded mostly lower to start the week with soymeal dragging soybeans lower, despite a slight rise in soyoil futures. Corn rebounded from the day&r...
Growing Threat to Trade
Russia is positioning to invade Ukraine if it wants, and China is seeking to put a military base on the Atlantic in Equatorial Guinea. Then there is China&...
Brazilian Beef and BSE
Brazilian Minister of Agriculture, Tereza Cristina, has stated she’s hopeful Brazil will be shipping beef to China again this month. Brazil’s l...
Hurdles for Beef
Making beef is challenging, and making good beef is even more complicated. It requires far more resources than competing animal proteins, which is why glob...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to build its troop presence on the border with Ukraine and has mobilized some 170,000 troops to the region. That is 70...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest continues at high speed with 12 percent harvested this week. The total has now reached 45 percent of the planted area...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Rally on South American Forecast; Wheat Falls on Russia Export Rumors
Summer row crops rallied on the CBOT Friday while wheat futures turned lower on expectations that near-term Russian exports will increase substantially. Ru...
Ethanol Starting Out Marketing Year Strong; Vilsack Says RVOs Coming
USDA released the October Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was up 16 percent from October 2020, and up 15 percent from Septemb...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.84/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.0375/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Greens on Defense; Apparel Peril; NAFTA Changes Parties
Greens on Defense For decades the policy bible for Greens in Europe has included scriptures against GMO’s and nuclear energy. But GMO’s can aid...
Cotton Beats Wheat
There is much consternation over the fact that global stocks-to-use in wheat is down to 12.5 percent and as a result, the price of the March SRW contract i...
Market Commentary: Omicron Correction
It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indicat...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.7675/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.15/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. ...
Energy and Food Lessons; Implications of Ukraine; Omicron Buys WTO Time
Energy and Food Lessons Energy and food prices are spiking at the same time policy reform advocates are seeking wholesale changes in the production of both...
Livestock Round Up: Broiler Production Ramping Up
The broiler production is looking strong for the new year. Chick hatching for placements in October was up 6 percent year-over-year. That’s the large...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Senior Ag Ministry Official Warns of Sustained Low Hog Prices In a recent interview, the Deputy Director of MARA’s Animal Husbandry and Vet...
Export Sales
Export Sales for November 19-25, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 79,900 metric tons (MT) for2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 86 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Bounce, Pullback as Omicron Detected in U.S.
The CBOT started the day higher with corn and the soy complex leading the way after “buy on the bounce” and “risk on” trade develop...
China Strategy; Biotech Breakout
China Strategy The U.S., EU and Japan have agreed to collaborate on how to deal with non-market economic practices – read China. The debate over how...
AI Impact
As the media tracks the spread of the Omicron version of COVID, there are reports of additional outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in Eu...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.715/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.905/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions, but the changes were not dramatic. They took place ma...
Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)
“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets wer...
Anti-vaxxers Come to Ag; Identity Politics Come to Trade
Anti-vaxxers Come to Ag The Green Revolution created modern agriculture, which has been called a mechanism for turning fossil fuels (inputs) into food. In...
COVID Variant Inflation
The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing today entitled, “CARES Act Oversight of Treasury and the Federal Reserve: Building a Resilient Economy.&r...
Aussie Wheat Importance
Although Australia produces less than 5 percent of global wheat output, it is typically the world’s fourth largest exporter. Due to its tendency towa...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.675/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8725/bushel, down $0.35 from yesterday's close.&n...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan and India are having difficulty in agreeing on the method to move Indian wheat to Af...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Weaker on Limited News, Strong U.S. Dollar, and Technical Selling
The CBOT was generally weaker to start the week with heavy overnight trade pushing wheat and soybeans higher while corn was lower. Today was the last tradi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
December’s Legislative Traffic Jam
Congress has a busy December ahead of it, including keeping the government open and increasing the Treasury Department’s borrowing authority. As it s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.81/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.2225/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's clo...
India’s Dangerous Reversal; Dems vs. Coms
India’s Dangerous Reversal Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent reversal on farm policy reforms will reverberate for years to come. Ess...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Last week was a short one for trading with Monday having been an Argentine holiday and Thursday marking the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Markets were, of cou...
Poultry Politics
Inflation is worrisome to the public and so politicians feel compelled to deflect any blame from themselves. Thus, President Biden called for an FTC invest...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France has detected the highly pathogenic bird flu virus on a farm in the northern part of the country, officials said on Saturday. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.8675/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.4025/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: COVID-19 News Craters Markets; Corn, Wheat, and Cattle Show Strength Amid Selling
Once again, coronavirus dominated the market’s psychology and action after the WHO identified the new southern Africa strain as a “variant of c...
Cancellation of Convenience; Fox in the Henhouse
Cancellation of Convenience The WTO’s 12th ministerial conference scheduled to begin next week has reportedly been postponed due to news of a new COV...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 567,500 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 42 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior4-week average. Cor...
Delayed RVOs Leads to Pushing Back RFS Compliance Deadlines
Recently, WPI reported on the Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit hearing about the timeline for the required volume obligations (...
Happy Thanksgiving
U.S. markets, including the CBOT and CME, are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 25 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.5025/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Rally; Wheat Posts Reversal; Corn Fails at Key Resistance Level
The CBOT was higher overnight with continued worries about world wheat supplies and weather driving the markets. Wheat futures continued their upside run i...
China Does it Again
Tomorrow is “turkey-day” in the U.S. but today the story is beef. Prices are up nearly 30 percent and while the cattle cycle is part of the sto...
Slippery Liability Slope; Papered Over; IP Confusion; Trilateral Double Talk
Slippery Liability Slope A federal jury in Ohio opined that since the pharmacies at major corporations filled prescriptions for opioids, they are therefore...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Feed Demand Slows in Q4 Data from the surveys of China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) Affairs and the China Feed...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions. Export duties continued to increase. Export milling w...
Market Commentary: New Highs in Wheat and Cattle; Soymeal Crashes; Oil Rallies as Biden Increases Supply
CBOT futures were mixed on Tuesday with wheat once again leading the way higher with new contract highs, corn following, and the soy complex ending mixed...
Farm Bill Outlook; China Phase One
Farm Bill Outlook Former Congressional staffer turned University of Illinois professor Jonathon Coppess correctly opines that negotiation on the 2023 farm...
How Sweet it Isn't
Two major U.S. sugar processors, U.S. Sugar and Imperial Sugar planned a merger, but the Justice Department is saying no. It warns that the duopoly...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.805/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.675/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. J...
SPR Release Turns Out to be Bullish
President Biden ordered the release of 50 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to ease gas prices. The release will be...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Bangladesh reports that the lowest offer under its 50,000 MT wheat tender is $409.77 MT CNF L...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally; Cattle Higher After Neutral On Feed Report
CBOT futures were higher to start the week with wheat leading the rally. Drought in the U.S. Plains, too much rain in eastern Australia, and geopolitical c...
Build Back Better Legislation Through the House
The House passed the scaled back version of the President’s Build Back Better reconciliation bill; the original package was $3.5 trillion, what got t...
Inflation Blame-Shifting; India’s Un-Reform
Inflation Blame-Shifting President Joe Biden has asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate the major oil companies for raising the cost of the fuel...
GM Advantage
Eggplant (Brinjal) is one of the more important vegetables consumed in South Asia. It is low in nutrients but provides bulk and fiber while also being high...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7675/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.4575/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s government has already started playing games with the export declarations allowances. They reopened the export registry for additional qu...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed, in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head, totaled 11.9 million head on November 1, 2021. The inventory was slightly below Novem...
Market Commentary: Weak Energies Weigh on Soy Complex; Wheat Ignores Bearish Technicals
Continued declines in energy markets pressured the CBOT on Friday and reduced fund buying interest. Soyoil futures fell lower and to near trading range sup...
True Conclusion; All the Above
True Conclusion Art Cullen, publisher of Iowa’s The Storm Lake Times, correctly opines that most farmers want to protect the soil and the environment...
Neutral Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released its monthly cattle on feed report today showing a total inventory of cattle and calves in feed yards of 11.9 million head on 1 November, whic...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.23/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
Russia's Wheat Export Tax
Russia has exploded as a wheat exporter, tripling its sales in just a decade. By contrast, domestic consumption grew some but has been relatively stagnant...
Market Commentary: Record Gains, Then Losses
It was a strange trading day with twists and turns that were at a minimum, unusual: Grains and oilseeds all closed higher overnight and then continued th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.73/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.2/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
State-led Chips; Grand Bargain Needed
State-led Chips Governments around the world spend billions of dollars in pursuit of food security and now the focus has expanded to computer security. Chi...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Marketing Legislation Proposed
The cattle marketing bill we reported was being developed (9 November) was introduced yesterday in both the House and Senate. It is a mash-up of two cash m...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Sales; U.S. Soyoil Stocks; Lysine Shortage; Brazilian Production Costs
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans and soymeal had fair success making export sale...
Export Sales
Exports for November 5-11, 2021 Wheat: Net sales of 399,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 40 percent from the previous week and 21 percent f...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Break Long-Term Resistance; Meal Extends Rally; SRW Wheat Posts Contract Highs
Bulls won the day Wednesday as the CBOT was higher across the board. The soy complex led the way higher on strong export news and soybeans posted a technic...
Selective Application; Missing Agenda
Selective Application The EU proposed a new regulation requiring due diligence on the part of companies marketing specific products (soybeans, beef, palm o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7525/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.2225/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices Fall Again But Pace Slows With the average prices for fresh vegetables climbing by 15.9 percent year-on-year in October, the cos...
Food System Speed Bumps
There were plenty of critics of the food system before the pandemic and the disruptions it caused prompted even more over-the-top accusations of total fail...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions and changed insignificantly. Export duties continued to...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls as Dollar Rallies; Hogs Rally Despite Weak Cash, Pork Markets
The CBOT was mostly lower in consolidation and profit-taking trade with wheat futures leading the way in weakening technical trade. Fresh news was light am...
Where’s the RVO?
The House Agriculture Committee’s Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit held a hearing today on the “Renewable Economy in Rur...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.71/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.1025/bushel, down $0.16 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Activist Math; COP26 and Biotech Future
Activist Math In the latest analytical miss by the activist group Food & Water Watch, “The Economic Cost of Food Monopolies: The Grocery Cartels,...
“Infrastructure” Package Details
Now that the new infrastructure bill has been signed into law, we almost know what is in it. While it is called an infrastructure bill, a little over a qua...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iraq says it intends to tender for 500,000 MT of wheat in December 2021 or early 2022. The te...
Summary of Futures
CORN December 2021 ($/bu) &nb...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Rally Continues; NOPA Crush Report Supportive; New Highs for Chicago Wheat
Soymeal and Chicago wheat were the upside leaders at the CBOT on Monday. Soymeal saw a round of active short-covering and technical buying while the wheat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
October Ethanol Production a Blip Not a Trend According to EIA
Last week’s WASDE raised the outlook for corn used in ethanol production by 50 million bushels based on September data from USDA’s Grain Crushi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Brazil Last week Brazil became the first country to authorize the use of wheat flour made with genetically modified (GM) wheat (specifically, the HB4...
Orange Juice is Fleeting
In the spring of 2020 as COVID-19 was spreading, U.S. consumption of orange juice increased as consumers sought to inoculate themselves with vitamin C. How...
COP26 Informs MC12; He Who Pays; Tech Sovereignty
COP26 Informs MC12 COP26 has ended and MC12 is about to begin and while the substance is vastly different, both share the goal of reaching global agreement...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Rally Leads CBOT; Brazil Approves GM Wheat Flour; China Likely Buyer of U.S. Soy
The CBOT ended sharply higher for the day with soymeal – surprisingly enough – leading the way higher. Soymeal futures posted a massive bullish...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.17/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Exports for October 29 to November 4, 2021 Wheat: Net sales of 285,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 29 percent from the previous week and...
Worsening Food Prices
Key agricultural commodity prices have risen sharply over the past two years, some reaching their highest level in a decade (see graph below). Now the UN s...
Corn versus Soybean Acres in 2022
High crop prices and generally tight stocks are bullish for fertilizer prices, from a demand-pull side. But fertilizer prices are also up on supply-push fa...
Market Commentary: Whether and Weather
The USDA Export Sales report is delayed until tomorrow due to today’s Veterans Day holiday and so it is not definitive whether China has been in the...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Price Rally
This week’s WASDE forecast showed total meat and broiler production increased slightly over last month’s projections. Beef is up on increased s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.695/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.125/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...
Inflation is Good; Transitory Fake Meat; Not so Fast; Fading Green
Inflation is Good The news yesterday about the surprising rise in U.S. inflation spooked markets and has President Biden’s team scrambling to avoid p...
Oilseed Highlights: China Soy Crush; U.S. Soy Yield; Egypt Tender; NOPA Crush
China’s Soybean Crush Increasing as Power Rationing Ends For the last several weeks many Chinese soybean processors were forced to shut down because...
Market Commentary: Wheat Posts Contract Highs on Russia Tax/Quota Rumors; China Seeking Ukrainian Corn
Traders adopted a “risk-on” mentality the day after the November WASDE with wheat playing the role of the upside leader. While soybeans receive...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.6925/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.03/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. ...
CAFTA-DR Rewrite; Phase One Failure; Divergent Transatlantic
CAFTA-DR Rewrite When the CAFTA-DR FTA was finalized back in 2004, GDP in the Central American region was 30 percent smaller. Since that time, growth as be...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends U.S. Ag Exports to China Set Record Through September For the first nine months of 2021, the U.S. has shipped a total of 37.17 MMT of agricult...
No N, No GMO, No Food
Some environmentalists were aghast at the COP26 meeting when mega-billionaire and serial do-gooder Bill Gates described nitrogen fertilizer as “magic...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 November 2021 The Russian grain market was very slow due to nationwide holidays. Export milling wheat average offer price grew t...
WASDE Soyoil
The U.S. season-average soyoil price for 2020/21 is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
The U.S. season-average soymeal price for 2020/21 is unchanged at $325 per short ton...
WASDE Soybeans
The November WASDE projected U.S. soybean ending stocks at 340 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 20 million from the October fore...
WASDE Corn
The November WASDE projected U.S. corn ending stocks at 1,493 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. This estimate is down 7 million from the October fore...
WASDE Wheat
The November WASDE projected U.S. wheat ending stocks at 583 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 3 million from the October forecas...
Market Commentary: WASDE Surprises Soybeans; Wheat Exporter Supplies Tighten; Record U.S. Corn Yield
Traders and analysts were decidedly bearish soybeans heading into the WASDE, but USDA’s report was anything but bearish the U.S. market. USDA cut U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.785/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...
New Cattle Market Mandate Bill Developed
As we reported in March, Senator Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) introduced his 50/14 cash marketing plan for the fed cattle market. The proposed legislation wou...
Inflation Sparks Changes; China Hits Unions
Inflation Sparks Changes Food is one of the four essentials of life and yet politicians often tax it domestically and impose tariffs against its importatio...
Beef: Where East Meets West
Beef demand in East Asia is on a long-term trend upward. Fulfilling this demand has required increased imports, primarily from Australia, Brazil, and the U...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Bangladesh poultry industry leaders have asked the government to help their suffering industr...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Fall Under Bearish WASDE Expectations; Cattle Trade Starts Week Strong
The CBOT was mixed to start WASDE week with the soy complex pushing lower under the threat of larger yield projections, which pulled corn lower too. Wheat...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.515/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.68/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Blame the Golden Goose; Sour Mystery; Port Protectionism
Blame the Golden Goose The COP26 meeting in Glasgow continues this week and developing nations are demanding that rich countries compensate them for climat...
Infrastructure Bill Headed to President’s Desk
The House of Representatives passed the bipartisan infrastructure bill late Friday; the legislation had already passed the Senate in August, so the package...
Crop Winners and Losers
USDA issued its annual, departmental consensus, ten-year outlook for U.S. agriculture that may be viewed as the winners and losers for the decade ahead. Wi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentine farmers have harvested 680,000 hectares of wheat, which equates to 10.5 percent of the planted area. Rains fell during the last two weeks b...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s farmers have planted 90 percent of the 7.1 Mha of winter crops, including 6.1 Mha of wheat and 0.844 Mha of winter barl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Correction Continues; Cash Wheat Strong Despite Futures’ Decline
The CBOT ended the week on a down note with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all posting losses for the day. Corn and wheat attempted to rally early in the...
Wrong Subsidies; Net-Zero; Obvious Taxes
Wrong Subsidies Green groups remind us constantly that small, extensive agriculture is better for the environment than are large “corporate” fa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.53/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.665/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&n...
Takeaways from Economic Data Reports
There has been a plethora of economic data reports this first week of November, plus a Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) meeting of the Federal Reserve...
Market Commentary: Higher Open Quickly Collapses
Most markets opened higher but very shortly thereafter most collapsed and by the end of the session, only lean hogs eked out a net gain. The flip was influ...
Livestock Round Up: Beef and Butter for the Holidays
As of today, week to date cattle slaughter is 99.7 percent of the same period last week. Last Thursday, we speculated that last week’s slaughter &ldq...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.5925/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.7375/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close...
COP26 Fallout; China Calls Bluff?; Right to Food Quirkiness
COP26 Fallout The Global Alliance for the Future of Food complains that most of the Nationally Determined Contribution plans they examined for meeting COP2...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales Highlights; Brazilian Soybeans Priced Below U.S.; Egypt Buys Sunoil Instead of Soyoil
U.S. Soy Export Sales Today’s USDA export sales report indicated last week was good for exporters of U.S. soybeans and soymeal. Export sales of soybe...
Export Sales
Export data for October22-28, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 400,100 metric tons (MT) for2021/2022 were up 49 percent from the previous week and 4 p...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower in Consolidation, Profit Taking; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT ended lower Wednesday as profit taking and risk-off trade occurred ahead of next week’s WASDE report. World ag markets were overbought after...
Wrong Question; Worse to Come; Cows Exempt
Wrong Question In the 1980 presidential campaign just before Thanksgiving, inflation was soaring, and Iran held American diplomats’ hostage. Candidat...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.64/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.81/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...
Beer Pressures
Global supply chain issues are pressuring many industries, but beer makers face a complex set of issues. Prices have risen for malt barley, aluminum, labor...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices Down Again in September The impact of cratering live hog prices in September showed up in the recent monthly data release from C...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25-29 October 2021 Average prices on the Russian grain market mainly grew. Exporters had to decrease their bid prices on the domesti...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Reverse on Fund Buying Slowdown; Soy Complex Higher on Meal Rally
The CBOT traded to new highs overnight with funds remaining active buyers while Paris milling wheat futures hit a new all-time high for the spot contract o...
House Ag Committee Supply Chain Hearing
Tomorrow, the House Agriculture Committee, will hold a hearing on “The Immediate Challenges to our Nation’s Food Supply Chain” – i...
Transatlantic Agriculture’s Beating; Hemispheric Interloping; COP26 Newspeak
Transatlantic Agriculture’s Beating In the name of beating both China and climate change, U.S. and EU agriculture confront a diminished future. China...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.73/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.915/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Soymeal Crush versus Exports
Over the past decade, the soybean crush in the top ten countries has increased by nearly 37 percent. Over that same period, soymeal exports amongst the top...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Cyprus' government has set aside €9 million for the support of animal farmers who are su...
Market Commentary: Fund Buying Fuels Contract Highs in Wheat and a Corn Rally
The start of the new month saw funds return to the CBOT as net buyers, chasing corn and wheat higher during today’s rally. Funds were aggressive buye...
Bullish Ethanol Production
USDA released the September Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 2 percent from August, but up 1 percent from September 2...
Green Tumult; Conflicts over China
Green Tumult Going green isn’t easy because it changes the winners and losers, and that means going green isn’t happening without a fight. Euro...
Year of the Pulse
The International Grains Council (IGC) announced that it will include pulses in its definition of grains and expand market information on these products. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.79/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.9725/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite drought in Argentina that came during the early phases of the wheat crop, rains appeared during the critical yield-defining periods and boost...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The International Grains Council left its forecast of world wheat production unchanged at 781 MMT for 2021/22, but increased the world...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies to End Strong Week; Hogs Rally while Cattle Fall
Corn and wheat futures were higher again on Friday, but volume was waning as funds slowed their buying pace. The soy complex saw continued but mild strengt...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.6825/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.7275/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Private R&D Leads; Energy Confusion
Private R&D Leads Proponents of public sector agricultural R&D have typically touted the high rate of return on such investments and lamented that...
Competitive Wheat Suppliers
Global wheat bids and offers were more closely aligned at the beginning of 2021 and then splintered as Northern Hemisphere crops became available in the Ma...
Tens of Billions for Ag Conservation Programs in Reconciliation Package
We’ve covered the up-and-down, back-and-forth process of the budget reconciliation bill, and by extension the bipartisan infrastructure package that...
Market Commentary: Defying the Calls
The market opened as called but the grains could not be held down for long. By mid-session corn and wheat were back held aloft by trusting bulls despite an...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Market Up on Tighter Supply and Demand Balance
Cattle markets have gained support of late. Foremost, this week’s slaughter, as of today, is running 6,000 head above last week. Last week was...
Right Target
The U.S. and EU attacked China’s subsidies at the WTO’s trade policy review of Beijing’s practices. Not only does China have huge state s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.6275/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.725/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; China Soy Crush; Brazilian Soy; Inefficient Ports
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated that in the week ending 21 October, exporters of U.S. soybeans and so...
Export Sales
Exporters for the period October15-21, 2021. Wheat - Net sales of 269,300 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 26 percent from the previous week...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Ethanol, End-User Buying; World Ag Markets Strengthen
The CBOT ended mostly higher for the day with ethanol production data and end-user buying supporting corn futures overnight and during Wednesday morning&rs...
Long Answer to Short; No Wiggle Room; Prescriptive Eating
Long Answer to Short WTO Deputy Director-General Angela Ellard explained the role of international trade in addressing climate change at a meeting of &ldqu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.495/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Volatility in Pistachios
The U.S. first displaced Iran as the world’s leading producer of pistachios in 2012 and for the past four years it has not even been a contest. Iran&...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock New Data Show Regional Production Trends As noted last week, Q3 data show total hog inventory and reproductive sow inventories stood at 437.6 mil...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 October 2021 Average prices on the Russian grain market moved in different directions. Key factors pushing prices down again w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.495/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: Trouble Brewing in China Grains and CME Hogs; Wheat Reverses while Corn Rallies
“Mixed” is the word for the CBOT/CME trade on Tuesday with wheat forming technical reversals and settling lower while corn posted strong techni...
Tech City on a Hill; Distance Warms Heart
Tech City on a Hill Some nationalistic political philosophers like to characterize the U.S. as a beacon of hope for democratic ideals and while some will s...
Biden Agenda on Capitol Hill a Game of Political Whack-A-Mole
It’s a critical week on Capitol Hill, both for the Biden Administration’s agenda and more generally, breaking the legislative log jam. First, t...
Shift in Food Inflation Impact
Since agricultural commodities are fungible and tradeable, no region of the world is immune to global price pressures. However, the impact of food price ch...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iran is reported to be the largest buyer of grain from Russia in the first three months of MY...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rally Holds; Vegoils Support Soy Complex; Cattle Firm After COF Report
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with KC wheat holding Friday’s contract-high gains and soybeans rallying on export inspections data and...
Food Inflation Forecast
USDA released its monthly food inflation outlook this morning. First, it’s worth noting the relative weight that each category gets in contributing t...
Hoodwinked by Mexico; Silly Diplomacy; Carbon Outlook
Hoodwinked by Mexico USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack’s announcement last week that Mexican Agriculture Secretary Victor Villalobos assured him that U.S. y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Exporters have already bought 8 MMT of the 2021/22 crop, out of an export surplus that should be at least 12 MMT, given a 21-MMT crop. Over the past...
Notable TFP Changes
U.S. Secretary for Agriculture Tom Vilsack and EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski will be on the stage together next week at the Forum for th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission reported that the favorable weather conditions across most of Europe “allowed farmers to make good progress&rdq...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. was 1 percent below October 1, 2020. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Cattle on Feed: Surprise (Kind of, but Not Really) on Placements
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today showing a total inventory of cattle and calves in feed yards of 11.6 million head on 1 October. That...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.38/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.56/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close. ...
Sustainability Impacts; Sustainability Lingo
Sustainability Impacts Policymakers brandishing climate change and sustainability as their objectives may find adverse impacts hitting their home markets h...
Shifting Protein Consumption
By far, Americans consume more animal protein than either China or the EU, but the composition is different. The Chinese and Europeans consume more pork pe...
Market Commentary: Downside of Up
Markets have their ups and downs and today was the downside of up. After pretty much adding points for the last several days, today was a modest correction...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview
Tomorrow USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. Analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 October a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3225/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Read My Lips; Trickle Down Policy; Red Threat
Read My Lips Former U.S. President George H.W. Bush infamously assured voters that he would not raise taxes by saying, “Read my lips.” Once ele...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; China Soy Stocks; New Renewable Diesel Facility
U.S. Soybean Export Sales and Exports Continue to Surge Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report confirmed exporters are seeing surging sales of soybeans...
Export Sales
Exports are for October 8-14, 2021 Wheat: Net sales of 362,400 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 36 percent from the previous week and 6 perce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.4925/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Breaks Resistance, Soy Complex Rallies; Lean Hogs Break Support
The CBOT was higher overnight with wheat and the soy complex leading the way. European wheat and rapeseed futures were also stronger, creating spillover bu...
Actions Louder than Words; China Faces WTO
Actions Louder than Words The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released in August and the associated COP26 me...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Financial Reports Show Top Hog Producers Had Rough Q3 Last week, several major domestic hog producers, also known as “Pork Concept” c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 October 2021 The average prices on the Russian grain market showed minimal growth. One of the main factors preventing further...
Pick Your Poison
Over the past decade, pesticide sales in Europe have declined by 7 percent. At the same time, organic production has expanded at 5.5 percent a year and now...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Higher on China Buying Rumors, Soymeal Short Covering; Grains End Mixed
The CBOT was mixed Tuesday with wheat leading the way higher overnight but with the day session seeing increased weakness in grains while oilseeds rallied...
Au Contraire; Presidential Absence; Limits of Transparency
Au Contraire U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said this past weekend that passing President Biden’s infrastructure package is the solutio...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.36/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Sorghum Dominance
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is the largest sorghum producing region in the world, growing nearly 44 percent of global output. Yet it exports and imports only...
How Much of Ag Spending Could be Dropped from Reconciliation?
Congress is back in session this week and the White House is reaching out to Democratic lawmakers to scale back the Biden $3.4 trillion “Build Back B...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhara Holdings announced plans to build five animal feed facilities in E...
Market Commentary: CBOT Attention Turns to Demand
The CBOT opened mixed with corn and soybeans steady/lower while wheat saw higher trade on tightening global supplies. That early weakness, however, was mos...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.3625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...
Creeping Toward CPTPP
President Biden said he would first build back America’s infrastructure before re-engaging the U.S. in trade agreements. It should be noted that his...
Food Inflation: At Home versus Away from Home
Food inflation continues to be a hot topic. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the consumer price index (CPI) for September. The food index...
Explaining Consumption
Pig meat producers in Europe are suffering the smallest profits in a decade. Reasonable explanations include the impacts of higher feed costs and the loss...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Iran’s grain supply association stated it expects to import 8 MMT of wheat this year due to supply shortages in the country. Much...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Rumors about a non-official agreement between the government and exporters to cap Argentina’s export sales at 38.5 MMT have been circu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Export Sales
Export data for October 1-7,2021. Wheat: Net sales of 567,600 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 70 percent from the previous week and 42 p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2575/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Notable Push Higher
Markets pushed higher for the most part a second day in row, boost by a competitive pricing situation and strong exports. Funds have had to reverse the sel...
High-Cost Energy/Ag Inputs Forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its winter fuels outlook last week, forecasting rising prices for several key agricultural inputs...