Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iran is reported to be the largest buyer of grain from Russia in the first three months of MY...
Articles
Market Commentary: Wheat Rally Holds; Vegoils Support Soy Complex; Cattle Firm After COF Report
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with KC wheat holding Friday’s contract-high gains and soybeans rallying on export inspections data and...
Food Inflation Forecast
USDA released its monthly food inflation outlook this morning. First, it’s worth noting the relative weight that each category gets in contributing t...
Hoodwinked by Mexico; Silly Diplomacy; Carbon Outlook
Hoodwinked by Mexico USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack’s announcement last week that Mexican Agriculture Secretary Victor Villalobos assured him that U.S. y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Exporters have already bought 8 MMT of the 2021/22 crop, out of an export surplus that should be at least 12 MMT, given a 21-MMT crop. Over the past...
Notable TFP Changes
U.S. Secretary for Agriculture Tom Vilsack and EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski will be on the stage together next week at the Forum for th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission reported that the favorable weather conditions across most of Europe “allowed farmers to make good progress&rdq...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. was 1 percent below October 1, 2020. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Cattle on Feed: Surprise (Kind of, but Not Really) on Placements
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today showing a total inventory of cattle and calves in feed yards of 11.6 million head on 1 October. That...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.38/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.56/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close. ...
Sustainability Impacts; Sustainability Lingo
Sustainability Impacts Policymakers brandishing climate change and sustainability as their objectives may find adverse impacts hitting their home markets h...
Shifting Protein Consumption
By far, Americans consume more animal protein than either China or the EU, but the composition is different. The Chinese and Europeans consume more pork pe...
Market Commentary: Downside of Up
Markets have their ups and downs and today was the downside of up. After pretty much adding points for the last several days, today was a modest correction...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed Preview
Tomorrow USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. Analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 October a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3225/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Read My Lips; Trickle Down Policy; Red Threat
Read My Lips Former U.S. President George H.W. Bush infamously assured voters that he would not raise taxes by saying, “Read my lips.” Once ele...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; China Soy Stocks; New Renewable Diesel Facility
U.S. Soybean Export Sales and Exports Continue to Surge Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report confirmed exporters are seeing surging sales of soybeans...
Export Sales
Exports are for October 8-14, 2021 Wheat: Net sales of 362,400 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 36 percent from the previous week and 6 perce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.4925/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Breaks Resistance, Soy Complex Rallies; Lean Hogs Break Support
The CBOT was higher overnight with wheat and the soy complex leading the way. European wheat and rapeseed futures were also stronger, creating spillover bu...
Actions Louder than Words; China Faces WTO
Actions Louder than Words The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released in August and the associated COP26 me...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Financial Reports Show Top Hog Producers Had Rough Q3 Last week, several major domestic hog producers, also known as “Pork Concept” c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 October 2021 The average prices on the Russian grain market showed minimal growth. One of the main factors preventing further...
Pick Your Poison
Over the past decade, pesticide sales in Europe have declined by 7 percent. At the same time, organic production has expanded at 5.5 percent a year and now...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Higher on China Buying Rumors, Soymeal Short Covering; Grains End Mixed
The CBOT was mixed Tuesday with wheat leading the way higher overnight but with the day session seeing increased weakness in grains while oilseeds rallied...
Au Contraire; Presidential Absence; Limits of Transparency
Au Contraire U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said this past weekend that passing President Biden’s infrastructure package is the solutio...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.36/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Sorghum Dominance
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is the largest sorghum producing region in the world, growing nearly 44 percent of global output. Yet it exports and imports only...
How Much of Ag Spending Could be Dropped from Reconciliation?
Congress is back in session this week and the White House is reaching out to Democratic lawmakers to scale back the Biden $3.4 trillion “Build Back B...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhara Holdings announced plans to build five animal feed facilities in E...
Market Commentary: CBOT Attention Turns to Demand
The CBOT opened mixed with corn and soybeans steady/lower while wheat saw higher trade on tightening global supplies. That early weakness, however, was mos...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.3625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...
Creeping Toward CPTPP
President Biden said he would first build back America’s infrastructure before re-engaging the U.S. in trade agreements. It should be noted that his...
Food Inflation: At Home versus Away from Home
Food inflation continues to be a hot topic. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the consumer price index (CPI) for September. The food index...
Explaining Consumption
Pig meat producers in Europe are suffering the smallest profits in a decade. Reasonable explanations include the impacts of higher feed costs and the loss...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Iran’s grain supply association stated it expects to import 8 MMT of wheat this year due to supply shortages in the country. Much...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Rumors about a non-official agreement between the government and exporters to cap Argentina’s export sales at 38.5 MMT have been circu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Export Sales
Export data for October 1-7,2021. Wheat: Net sales of 567,600 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 70 percent from the previous week and 42 p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2575/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Notable Push Higher
Markets pushed higher for the most part a second day in row, boost by a competitive pricing situation and strong exports. Funds have had to reverse the sel...
High-Cost Energy/Ag Inputs Forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its winter fuels outlook last week, forecasting rising prices for several key agricultural inputs...
F2F Proxy; Rolling Inflation; Selective View of Tensions
F2F Proxy Greens in Europe have been downplaying the impact on production from reduced use of inputs, arguing that studies showing lower production are fla...
Market Commentary: Hosanna High
After several days of closing lower it was an upside day for everything but lean hogs. Yesterday’s selloff and a long stream of red led to an oversol...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2475/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
Inflation’s Sentinel – Labor Fight; Linkages and Watering; USMCA Lesson
Inflation’s Sentinel – Labor Fight The IMF’s chief economist has opined that stagflation is not a risk and JP Morgan’s influential...
Turkey, Ham or Beef for Thanksgiving?
Thanksgiving is about 40 days away; retailers have been ordering turkey and soon distribution will get underway. Last year, with COVID resulting in smaller...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Stocks; Another Soy Crush Plant; China Vegoil Imports; India Tariffs
USDA WASDE Report Substantially Loosens Soy Supply/Demand Situation Only a few days after USDA raised its estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks in 2020/2...
Market Commentary: Funds Selling Pressures Corn, Soy, and Wheat; Argentina’s GM Wheat Issue Evolves
The CBOT found ample follow-through selling on yesterday’s bearish October WASDE with funds turning into large sellers in corn, soybeans, and –...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1225/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1875/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Futures Stage Rally as Cash Prices Continue to Tank With the conclusion of China’s National Day Holiday last Thursday, the live ho...
False Falsehoods; Underwhelming Mush
False Falsehoods The environmentalists in Europe are accusing the farm lobby of falsehoods and “underhand tactics” to undermine the impending F...
Vegetable Oil Volatility
Although global vegetable oil prices have moderated from their peaks this past spring, they remain substantially elevated above historic values. However, c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 October 2021 The average price on the Russian grain market continued to grow but the price increases were minimal. One of the ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Record U.S. Soy Crop Pressures Futures; Ending Stocks Grow for Corn, Fall for Wheat
The CBOT opened on the defensive heading into the WASDE with traders bracing for bearish numbers. The soy complex led the way lower with a 2 percent decrea...
Land Utilization Changes
A coalition of agriculture groups has proposed paying farmers $100/acre to implement climate-smart practices. The total price tag of $40 billion a year is...
WASDE Protein Forecasts: Margins Not Enough to Motivate Roosters
Today’s WASDE reduced the forecast for red meat and poultry production slightly from the September forecast with higher cow slaughter from culling be...
Limits of Leverage; Price of Opaqueness; Goldilocks Climate Policy
Limits of Leverage The livestock industry is awaiting word from the U.S. Supreme Court on whether it will hear its challenge to California’s Prop 12...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA The World Bank estimates that MENA region economies have been affected by about $200 billion...
Market Commentary: Expected WASDE Yield Increases Pressure CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower in quiet trade with the federal government, most banks, and bond markets closed for the Columbus Day holiday. Trading volume was...
Long-Term Outlook: Watching Farm Program Enrollment
USDA will publish the October WASDE tomorrow. The market will be watching for changes in the corn and soybean yield estimates and what that means for endin...
Land Rents Smooth Sector
There is much angst that more than half of cropland in the U.S. is rented, with the usual opprobrium involving farmers at the mercy of landlords, and landl...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat GM Wheat Saga Continues Argentina’s lone GM wheat variety (HB4 wheat from Bioceres) continues to generate polemic from various outside interest...
How Sweet It Isn't
Global sugar consumption has now paced below the population growth rate for three years in a row. After dipping sharply in 2019, per capita consumption con...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt’s GASC purchased 240,000 MT of wheat (25 percent Romanian and 75 percent Russian) last week for shipment for 11-20 November...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.305/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Rally Falters; Wheat Tries to Define Range; Corn Quiet Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT was mostly lower in mixed trade on Friday with an early soyoil rally supporting soybeans while corn and wheat edged lower. Profit taking developed...
We’ve Already Got More than $3 Trillion Stimulus – Without the Pending Bill
Congress has passed a continuing resolution to keep the government open until 3 December. The Senate has passed a temporary debt ceiling increase whic...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodit...
India’s Opportunity; Mexico’s Loss; Meat of the Issue
India’s Opportunity Sometime next year India will promulgate its next five-year Foreign Trade Policy (FTP). Based on the past five years, India has b...
Oats of Course
The December 2021 futures contract on oats is up over 72 percent since the beginning of the year and may yet surge higher. The volume traded in recent days...
PM Post - Meal Drags
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 higher Dec meal: .50 lower Dec soyoil: 35 higher Dec corn: 1 higher Dec wheat: 1 higher The markets ope...
Technical Views - The Upshot
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.36c/bu while oilshare trades to new highs at 49.47%. Bean spreads are weaker as November contracts continue to roll for...
AM Outlook - Demand Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices were higher at the start of the PM session with beans and soyoil in the lead to the upside. Global vegoil prices remain lock-ste...
Market Commentary: Upside Down Day
Markets were higher overnight and were called for similar follow through this morning, but things did not initially go as planned. Instead, funds came out...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Record Meat Exports and Congressional Review of Livestock
Exports are driving red meat demand. August export data was released yesterday, and beef shipments were $1.04 billion for the month (a record for any month...
Biodiversity Killer; Desperate for a Deal; All for One; OECD China Platform
Biodiversity Killer The EU is mandating that 25 percent of agricultural production be organic. Member states are being told that organic brings social, eco...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices Fall Again, Pace Quickens as Cost of Pork Drops Further The steep drop in pork prices since mid-spring kicked into overdrive dur...
PM Post - Buy Wheat, Sell Corn
THE OPEN November beans: 3 lower December meal: 1.30 lower December soyoil: 25 higher December corn: 2 lower December wheat: 3 lower The...
Export Sales
Exporters for September 24-30, 2021 Wheat: Net sales of 333,200 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 15 percent from the previous week, but down 19...
AM Outlook - Trends Intact
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened close to home, higher for soy with some light profit-taking in wheat. All markets are higher heading into the close led b...
Market Commentary: Putin Pressures Energies; CBOT Ends Mixed; Commercials Book Soymeal
The CBOT was mixed in low-volume trade with corn and soybeans turning lower while wheat traded a volatile day and ended slightly higher. Energy markets wer...
MFN Hurdle; Sovereign Losers; Trade Policy Movement
MFN Hurdle German Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner is urging the European Commission to ensure that third countries with a trade agreement with Eur...
Ongoing Biofuel Demand
The U.S. Energy Information Agency published its latest forecast for energy use through 2050 and it foresees no slackening in demand. Its projection for de...
PM Post - Eyeing Next WASDE
THE OPEN November beans: 1 higher December meal: .30 higher December soyoil: 50 pts higher December corn: 3 higher December wheat:&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 September-1 October 2021 Pricing trends of the previous week persisted: wheat and barley domestic prices increased moderately in...
AM Outlook - Congestive, Constructive, Bearish, Friendly
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened fairly close to home with wheat again the firm trade out, and all else mixed to slightly lower. During the PM session, pr...
Technical Views - Rebound Higher
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.34c/bu, new highs, while oilshare trades 48.80%. Dec/March corn trades from 8c to 8 1/2c carry while the Dec 21/22 inve...
Market Commentary: Energies Surge, Send Soyoil Higher; Soybeans Post Reversal
The CBOT formed a Turnaround Tuesday with sharply higher energy prices supporting a bullish technical breakout for soyoil and pulled soybeans higher. The o...
Trade Prevails
There is much gnashing of teeth over the persistent burden of the pandemic on the world but the trade sector appears to have overcome it, and its associate...
Ethanol Exports Up in August, but Still Missing Brazil
After dropping in July to the lowest level since October 2013, August ethanol exports shot back up in August, increasing about 55 percent. However, the Aug...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.4475/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close...
Mounting Political Hurdles; Tai Speech Critique; Slow Shipping; Green Arising
Mounting Political Hurdles The metrics could change by 2022 but political analysts in Washington are citing a growing number of challenges for Presid...
PM Post - Soyoil Drives; Grains Relax
THE OPEN November beans: 1/4 higher Deceme meal: 2.00 lower December soyoil: 72 higher December corn: 3 1/2 lower December wheat:&n...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Iran officials say 2021/22 wheat imports are expected to reach 8 MMT – three times last...
AM Outlook - Macro Pressures
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning, lower for everything but soyoil. Soyoil futures followed a strong performance by palm, which jumped to n...
Technical Views - Sliding
SPREADS Dec crush trades higher to 1.28c/bu while oilshare firms up to 47.54%. Dec/March corn trades out to 9c from 8 1/2c. Dec 21/22 inverse t...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Lower on Technical Weakness; Grains Firm; Crude Oil Hits Seven-Year High
The CBOT was mixed with continued weakness in the soy complex as soybeans and soymeal broke technical support levels. Soyoil traded a volatile day and ende...
Anomalous China Trade Year
The Biden Administration announced that it will ensure enforcement of the Phase One trade deal with China but that will not be much of a challenge when it...
Could Lack of Compliance with the Federal Employee COVID Vaccine Mandate Impact USDA Services?
As we reported last Thursday, the Senate passed a continuing resolution – i.e., a temporary funding bill to keep the government from shutting down at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.565/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Same Old with China; Mexico Plunges; Carbon Support
Same Old with China U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai detailed today how the Biden Administration would largely continue the status quo approach to C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest has started in the northern tip of the country, which was most affected by this year’s drought. Recently, hot t...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat World wheat prices continue to rally after USDA surprised the market with smaller-than-expected U.S. 2020/21 ending stocks last week. A...
PM Post - Good Inspections
THE OPEN November beans: 7 lower December meal: 1.40 lower December soyoil: 15 higher December corn: 3/4 lower December wheat: 6 hi...
Technical Views - Mostly Sideways
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 1.22c/bu while oilshare trades at 47.24%. Dec/March corn trades 8 1/4c to 8 1/2c, Dec 21/22 inverse trades down to...
AM Outlook - Grains Over Beans
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the PM session lower with corn prices slowly recovering led by wheat. Harvest proceeds forward as trading volumes...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rally and Soy Selloff Continue; Hogs Rest After $8 Weekly Gain
The CBOT largely followed the trends set yesterday by the Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports. Wheat rallied sharply and posted near-30-cent gain...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Lump of Coal; Outcomes Not Means
Lump of Coal About 17 countries plus the EU presently have national carbon pricing. Some countries are threatening border taxes to prevent so-called carbon...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.5525/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Disappearing Fertilizer Supply
On 26 July, WPI wrote about the Department of Commerce decision to consider countervailing duties (CVD) and anti-dumping duties (AD) on imports of urea amm...
Energy and GDP
Rising energy prices should have an impact on global GDP growth in 2021, though the ratio has been declining. Over the past 20 years, expenditures on energ...
PM Post - Buy Grains/Sell Soy
THE OPEN November beans: 2 lower December meal: 1.60 higher December soyoil: 12 lower December corn: 6 higher December wheat: 12 higher T...
AM Outlook - Two Potential Plays
GOOD MORNING, Prices for the soy complex are mixed, with beans lower, products trading both sides. Oilshare is seeing some profit-taking on the...
Technical Views - Post-Report Adjustments
SPREADS Dec crush trades higher to 1.11c/bu, which will incentivize crushers to do all they can. Oilshare trades higher to 47.0%. Dec/March cor...
Market Commentary: Overplayed Then Corrected
The NASS stocks report initially felt like a bomb had dropped but after the trade assessed the situation with a clearer head, markets came back off their l...
Livestock Round Up: Pressure Release from Government Shutdown, Drought, ASF Threat, and Maybe Cattle Prices
The Senate passed, by a vote of 65-35, a temporary funding bill to keep the government from shutting down at midnight tonight, the last day of the fiscal y...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.255/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&n...
Practical Politics
Whether Buenos Aires or Washington, politicians are finding a practical middle to prevent all out failure. In Argentina, after a devastating blow ear...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Soybean Stocks; Palm Oil Price; ND Soy Crush Plant
U.S. Soy Export Sales and Exports Update Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters had a positive week selling U.S. soybeans for expor...
PM Post - Post-Report Adjustments
THE OPEN Nov beans: 4 higher Dec meal: 1.60 lower Dec soyoil: 90 higher Dec corn: 4 higher Dec wheat: 9 higher The markets opened a...
Export Sales
USDA Reports for Sept 17-23, 2021: Wheat: Net sales of 290,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 19 percent from the previous week and 30 perc...
Technical Views - Mostly Firm
SPREADS Dec crush trades higher to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades firmer as well to 46.20%. Dec/March corn trades from 7 3/4c carry to 8c. Dec...
AM Outlook - Bears are Watching
GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to put on good rallies. Features overnight include higher oilshare and soyoil strength, (on the back of strong pal...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms in Pre-Grain Stocks Report Positioning
The CBOT ended higher on Wednesday after a mixed overnight session gave way to day-session gains. Outside markets recovered some of yesterday’s losse...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Pragmatism versus Philosophy; Big Pig
Pragmatism versus Philosophy Farmers are generally conservative when it comes to government, except when it involves benefits for themselves. This is playi...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Chinese Live Hog Market Facing More Challenges Despite recent market optimism that improved genetics and a better stream of ne...
Inflation Implications
Concerns about inflation exceeding transitory terms have increased in recent days but it was reported yesterday that inventories of consumer goods have sta...
Ag Review - September 2021
For 23 years, WPI’s monthly AgReview publication has provided in-depth analysis of markets and policy. Responding to changes in both business economi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 September 2021 Prices for grain crops (except for corn) in the domestic Russian market increased but at a more moderate rate t...
PM Post - Up Leveling
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: .20 higher Dec soyoil: 32 higher Dec corn: 3 higher Dec wheat: 7 higher The mark...
AM Outlook - "V" is for Volatility
GOOD MORNING, Prices were mixed overnight but gradually turned higher led by wheat, as traders seem more pre-occupied by what is going on in outside...
Technical Views - Leveling Up
SPREADS Dec crush trades 1.03c/bu while oilshare is steady at 45.78%. Dec/March corn trades out to 8 1/4c from 7 3/4c while the Dec 21/22 inverse fal...
Market Commentary: CBOT Succumbs to Macro Risk-Off Day; Cattle Pause Amid Hog Rally
The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with the U.S. Congressional battle over the debt ceiling, spending packages, and anything else the two parties can argue a...
Barley Market Tightens
The global barley market is only about one-eighth the size of the corn market but to major exporters (France, Russia, Australia, Canada) and to major impor...
Senator Grassley on RVOs: “Worst Week in Washington for Ethanol Ever”
There are more rumors circulating about potential cuts in the require volume obligations (RVOs) for biofuels. Those stories have certainly gained the atten...
U.S. – EU Agreement; Macro Bearishness
U.S. – EU Agreement Although France was balking at agreeing to the 17-page transatlantic agreement, tomorrow’s meeting of the U.S. – EU T...
PM Post - Macros Prompt Fund Selling
THE OPEN Nov beans: 5 3/4 lower Dec meal: 1.40 lower Dec soyoil: 15 lower Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 1 higher The markets opene...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan sees a wheat cargo of 59,700 MT arrive with another 58,000 MT to arrive this week. T...
Technical Views - Weight of the Soy Complex
SPREADS Dec crush trades up to 1.00c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.98%. Spreads trade from 7 1/2c to 7 3/4c for Dec/March, while Dec 21/22 inverse t...
AM Outlook - Oil is the Big Kahuna
GOOD MORNING, The markets have put in a good rally as we head into the Sep. 1 Quarterly Stocks report. Corn rallied on any number of items, inc...
Market Commentary: Corn, Crude Oil Rally; Lean Hogs Hit Limit-Gains
Confirmation of a 300,000+ MT sale of soybeans to China, plus rumors of continued interest from Chinese buyers, put a bid under the CBOT on Monday. Corn fu...
Meat Maneuvers; German Maneuvers; Weighing Biden/Global Coverage
Meat Maneuvers The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association asked USDA to opine on whether alternative proteins such as cell-cultured products could be labeled a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.395/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Corn Crude Comparison
The December corn contract rose 2.4 percent today and WTI Crude was up 1.7 percent. The corn price is rising in the middle of otherwise bearish indicators...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Despite stable FAS prices near $200-205/MT, Argentina’s market saw traded volume decrease. Even so, October is almost here, and farmers have sol...
Big Week for Biden Agenda and Fiscal Policy on Capitol Hill
This week will be pivotal on Capitol Hill. Much of President Biden’s agenda – the American Families Plan (43.5 trillion budget reconciliation b...
PM Post - Outside Money Boost
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: 2.00 higher Dec soyoil: 50 lower Dec corn: 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 1 lower The markets op...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The United Nations is tendering for 200,000 MT of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government with a submission deadline of 8 O...
Technical Views - Sideways Range-bound
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 93.70c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.51%. Spreads are firmer with Dec/March corn trading from 7 1/2c to 7 3/4c, while De...
AM Outlook - Bearish Tone
GOOD MORNING, Prices opened on a mixed note overnight, higher beans and wheat, lower corn. Weather is wide open for harvest. Soyoil futures ope...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle on feed totaled 11.2 million head on September 1, 2021. The inventory was 1 percent below September 1, 2020. This is the second highest September 1...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed; Soy Crushing Stops in China; Cattle and Hog Reports Bullish 2022 Futures
The CBOT was mixed in low-volume trade to end the week. Chicago wheat was the upside leader, though few contracts followed that market’s lead. Corn a...
USDA Inventory Reports: Hogs Bullish, Cattle More Bearish
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report today with most all categories coming in below pre-report expectations. Total inventory was 75.4 million h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Wine over Beer; Bad Timing; PR Approach; Korean Hope
Wine over Beer Policymakers hoping to compel the citizenry into drastic actions to cut carbon emissions have poured cold water on their messaging with the...
Minor Misnomer
In agriculture, there are major and minor crops. This seemingly disparaging characterization relates solely to the amount of acreage utilized. Minor crops...
PM Post - Risk-off, Profit-taking, Position-leveling
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 lower Dec meal: .20 lower Dec soyoil: 5 lower Dec corn: 1 lower Dec wheat: 1/2 lower The markets opened lower on a cautio...
Am Outlook - Notable Stories
GOOD MORNING, Prices were mixed in the evening, higher for beans and soyoil with corn struggling and all turning in the red by the AM hour. Soyoil pr...
Technical Views - Round We Go
SPREADS Dec crush trades up to 91.20c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 45.55%. Dec/March trades from 7 1/2c to 8c, while Dec 21/22 trades fro...
Market Commentary: Off the Bottom
The market opened soft with wheat and soyoil as leaders and the rest in the hole, but a route was found out of the hole by everything but soymeal and feede...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed and Hogs and Pigs Preview
Tomorrow, USDA will release two important reports: the monthly Cattle on Feed Report and the quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory. Analysts’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2925/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1775/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...
Killing CBAM; Nation Killing; Markets versus Regulation
Killing CBAM European Commission Executive Vice President Frans Timmerman says that the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism would not apply to Japan due to...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Soy Stocks; Argentina Soy Crush; India Soymeal
U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 16 September indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans and soyme...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Chinese Live Hog Price Decline Accelerates After Holiday The fall optimism that emerged mid-summer with respect to the return...
PM Post - As Called
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: 1.10 lower Dec soyoil: 40 higher Dec corn: 2 lower Dec wheat: 4 higher The markets opened as...
Export Sales
For the period September 10-16, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 355,900 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 42 percent from the previous week, but up...
Technical Views - Corn/Soymeal Lower
SPREADS Dec oilshare trades to 45.20% while crush trades up to 89.85c. Dec/March corn narrows into 7 1/4c from 7 1/2c. Dec 21/22 trades from 24...
AM Outlooked - Mixed Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed with wheat and soyoil leading the way in strength. The PM session featured more congestion trade as harvest rolls on a...
Market Commentary: Real Reaction to Fake RVOs; Oats, Wheat Rally
The CBOT finished higher on Wednesday with corn and soyoil trading a volatile day with rumors and reports of new EPA biofuel requirements and suspicions of...
September Cold Storage Report
August total red meat and poultry stocks were steady compared to July but down 14.3 percent from August 2020. Once again, beef, pork, chicken, and turkey s...
Wheat Status Quo
Bulgaria is headed toward record crops this year with wheat output more than doubling since joining the EU. However, the overall record for countries joini...
China In-Country Analysis
Today's China analysis is delayed due to the country's Harvest Moon Festival which delayed delivery of current data. ...
Blinding Reality; Differential Distortions; Subs are Good
Blinding Reality UN’s Food Systems Summit opens tomorrow and like much else about the institution, it proves to be a bust. It started with the usual...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.255/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.0575/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. ...
PM Post - Healthy Rally
THE OPEN Nov beans: 9 higher Dec meal: .20 lower Dec soyoil: 120 pts higher Dec corn: 4 higher Dec wheat: 10 higher Prices op...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 September 2021 Prices for grain crops in the domestic Russian market mainly increased. In the Ural region and in some areas in...
AM Outlook - Mixed
GOOD MORNING, Prices started the evening on a tentative note, but beans, wheat, and soyoil prices rallied into the morning hours taking corn along with it...
Technical Views - Upside Follow-through
SPREADS Dec crush is 88.65% with oilshare at 44.83%. Spreads are wider with Dec/March corn trading from 7 /34c to 8 1/2c carry, while Dec 21/Dec 22 t...
Market Commentary: Macro Markets Stabilize, Soy Rallies on China Buying; Wheat Weaker on Planting
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with soybeans grinding lower and breaking support early in the day before rumors of Chinese purchases pushed the market to a...
China: Will It, or Won’t It, Meet Phase One in Year Two?
As the two-year China-U.S. Phase One trade agreement nears its final months, and seasonal exports trend up, what China does for the rest of the year has be...
Double Exposure; New Old Era
Double Exposure In a concept paper yesterday at the WTO, the U.S. outlined its lessons from the pandemic in terms of a more resilient planet. Notably missi...
PM Post - Loss of Upside Steam
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 higher Dec meal: 1.30 higher Dec soyoil: 15 higher Dec corn: 1 lower Dec wheat: 4 lower Pri...
Missing Energy Diversity
The theme of the pandemic has been the need for reshoring and diversification of supply chains to strengthen future resilience from such black swan events...
Technical Views - Soy to Lead
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 89c while oilshare trades to 44.76%. Dec/March corn carry trades from 8c to 8 1/4c, while Dec 21/22 trades from 20c inver...
AM Outlook - Still Awaiting Upside Reversal
GOOD MORNING, Prices overnight continue to trend lower for grains, while attempting to put in some stabilization trade for soyoil and beans. Ou...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Morocco is forecast by USDA-FAS to be importing about 4.5 MMT of wheat in 2021/22 – dow...
Market Commentary: Macro Risk-Off Trade Pressures CBOT
The CBOT was lower to start the week with widespread “risk off” trade taking place in light of weaker macro markets. U.S. and world stocks were...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.0075/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&n...
Reap What You Sow; Energy Poverty; Deadly Food
Reap What you Sow French President Emmanuel Macron withdrew his ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia over the shift of a submarine purchase from his count...
Methane and Climate Policies Ag Focus before U.N. Climate Meeting
There was a lot of activity last week in preparation for the upcoming United Nations climate meeting to be held in Glasgow, including a new U.S.-EU methane...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat World wheat markets are steady/higher this week after futures markets rallied despite the September WASDE’s addition of 4 MMT to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It’s been an interesting week for the corn market with significant volumes traded. Almost every exporter has been pushing for grain, paying up f...
Meathead Packing Policy
Last week, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack charged the U.S. meat industry with unethically profiting off of Americans during the pandemic. A charge totally refu...
PM Post - Beans Beaten Worst
THE OPEN Nov beans: 17 lower Dec meal: 2.80 lower Dec soyoil: 108 pts lower Dec corn: 11 lower Dec wheat: 10 lower The market...
AM Outlook - Exiting Some Longs
GOOD MORNING, Prices are lower across the board on more fund selling as weather moving forward continues to favor a good pace of harvest. Outside mar...
Technical Views - Retrace Lower
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare trades at 45.0%. Dec/March corn trades out to 8c from 7c, while Dec 21/22 trades from 23 1/2c carry...
Market Commentary: Macro Risk Off
Don’t take it personally that markets across the board showed weakness today. Exceptions being the dollar and lean hogs. The problem is dropping cons...
Will Biofuels Go Sky High in Taking to the Air?
The Biden Administration last week announced an effort to lower carbon emissions in aviation, targeting a 20 percent drop in aviation emissions by 2030 and...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.0875/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close...
Biden Buckles; Future-casting Politics
Biden Buckles Much the way Donald Trump’s threat to end NAFTA united Congressional Republicans and Democrats in support of the USMCA, China has manag...
PM Post - Macro Sell-off
THE OPEN Nov beans: 10 lower Dec meal; 2.30 lower Dec soyoil: 52 lower Dec corn: 2 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 3 3/4 lower The marke...
Technical Views - Lower Range Profit-tacking
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 86c/bu while oilshare trades at 45.44%. Dec/March corn trades from 7 1/2c to 7 3/4c, while Dec 21/Dec 22 trades fro...
AM Outlook - Moving Lower
GOOD MORNING, The markets were lower overnight as we cap off a week that contained a rally, and will end with good harvest weather across the heart of the...
Market Commentary: Tenuous Nudges
Without a lot driving the direction of the market, today was like a bickering old couple where bulls and bears disagreed over nothing important. Trades cou...
Livestock Round Up: Back to School Outlook for Dairy
After on-line, remote learning, and shortened and staggered weeks at schools, this fall semester offers some hope to return to a more normal year for dairy...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.295/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.13/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. ...
Subs and Trade; International Tyranny; ESG Green Washing
Subs and Trade China has applied for membership to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a move that should re...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 617,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022--a marketing-year high—were up 59 percent from the previous week and up noticeably f...
PM Post - Choppy but Constructive
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 higher Dec meal; 2.70 higher Dec soyoil: 34 lower Dec corn: 1 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 3 1/2 lower The markets opened as exp...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentina Election Impact; Brazil Soy; WASDE Changes; Canada Canola
Electoral Defeats May Cause Argentine Peronists to Revisit Export Restrictions Midterm congressional primary elections were held on Sunday in Argentina. Th...
AM Outlook - More Upside Follow-through
GOOD MORNING, The surprising strength of the rallies this week caught bears off guard, creating a short-covering rally which found little selling pressure...
Technical Views - Ownership
SPREADS Crush trades down to 91c/bu with oilshare at 45.89%. Spreads were firmer with Dec/March corn narrowing into 7c from 7 1/2c. Dec 21/Dec...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rally; Corn Yields Concerning; Crude Oil Offers Support
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday, led by rallies in corn and wheat that broke their Friday (post-WASDE) highs. Milling wheat stocks are tightening a...
Individual Action; AMR for Everyone
Individual Action An anti-animal agriculture group falsely calling itself Americans For Family Farmers is promoting legislation entitled Exposing Agricultu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.1225/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. ...
Food to Follow Fossil Fuels
The strategy in Europe and now developing in the U.S. is to replace fossil fuels with new green energy. Europe also wants to replace food produced using ch...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Producers Cut Output as Prices Plummet With China’s leading hog producers reporting their monthly sales for August, the country&rs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 September 2021 Prices for grain crops in the domestic Russian market mainly increased. In the Ural region and in some areas in...
PM Post - Weakness Gets Purchased
THE OPEN Nov beans: 6 higher Dec meal: .10 lower Dec soyoil: 50 higher Dec corn: 6 higher Dec wheat: 3 higher Prices opened as called but...
Technical Views - Upside Follow-through
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.72%. Corn spreads are firmer across the board. Dec/March corn trades into...
AM Outlook - Momentum Lower is Stalled
GOOD MORNING, Prices begin the PM session mixed, led higher by corn with wheat lower, but most are higher heading into the close. The soy complex is...
Market Commentary: Day Shift Follow-Through
After higher closes overnight (except soymeal), markets showed follow-through and opened higher this morning (except soymeal). While corn, wheat, and soyoi...
Ag Negotiator; Curious Quad
Ag Negotiator President Joe Biden announced his intent to nominate Elaine Trevino to be the U.S. Chief Agricultural Trade Negotiator. Trevino is President...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2025/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.0075/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. ...
Proposed Taxes to Pay for the Reconciliation Bill
As we wrote yesterday, while the House Agriculture Committee finished its version of the reconciliation bill, the House Ways and Means Committee is working...
China Boosts USA Sorghum
Unlike corn, China does not impose a tariff rate quota on sorghum imports and now the Middle Kingdom is hoovering up all the sorghum that American farmers...
PM Post - Upside Follow-through
THE OPEN Nov beans: 9 higher Dec meal: 1.00 higher Dec soyoil: 70 higher Dec corn: 3 1/2 higher Dec wheat: 10 hig...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Turkey has stopped the import tax on wheat (45 percent), barley (35 percent), and corn (25 pe...
AM Outlook - Waiting on Exports
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher on the early night session as charts build on gains and on chatter that China has been actively purchasing US beans. ...
Technical Views - Trading in Ranges
SPREADS December crush pops up to 91c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.10%. Spreads firm with Dec/March corn narrowing into 8 1/2c from 9c carry. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Steady While Livestock Markets Collapse; 1970’s Fashion and the Fed
The CBOT was mostly steady on Monday following Friday’s volatile reaction to the September WASDE. Corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat were all lower but tr...
Policymakers Back to Work with 17 Days Until End of Fiscal Year
Fiscal year 2021 ends 30 September. There is much work still to be done including funding the government past 1 October, extending key authorizations that...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains After a long period of below-normal rains, September started with meaningful precipitation for a large portion of Argentina’s agricultural are...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.1325/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $6.87/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&n...
PM Post - Continued Weakness
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 lower Dec meal: 2.00 lower Dec soyoil: 3 higher Dec corn: 8 lower Dec wheat: 5 1/2 lower The mark...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Morocco is rumored to be suspending its import duty on soft wheat starting 1 November to ensure sufficient domestic supply and maintain...
Breaking: Fire at JBS Beef Plant
A fire broke out at JBS’ beef packing plant in Grand Island, Nebraska late Sunday night. The fire was reportedly caused by a boiler exploding i...
Sino-American Similarities; Business Flips; Cost of Dependency
Sino-American Similarities While China and the U.S. are in a competitive battle both strategically and economically, there are many similarities between th...
AM Outlook - Seesaw Continues
GOOD MORNING, The markets opened on a steady note, but the weight of harvest upon the markets sent prices into the red even though they remain off their Fr...
Technical Views - Spreads and Oilshare
SPREADS Dec crush trades down to new lows at 84.14c/bu, while oilshare trades to 45.10%. Dec/March corn trades into 8 3/4c from 9 1/4c. DecMarc...
Pandemic "Food Crisis"
Politico interviewed 11 leaders in U.S. agriculture and determined that based on the pandemic, the food system is not ready for prime time. The thrust of t...
WASDE Soyoil
The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound...
WASDE Soymeal
The soybean meal price is forecast at $360 per short ton, down 25 dollars...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, ending stocks, and lower cru...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. corn is for larger supplies, increased feed and residual use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks. Projec...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stock...
Export Sales
This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period August27-September 2, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 388,400 metric tons (MT) for2021/2022...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.175/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $6.885/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary - WASDE Boosts US Production, Stocks, CBOT Rallies Anyway
Today was all about the WASDE and the lack of an anticipated bearish surprise from USDA sent the CBOT higher by the close. Near-term, it is likely th...
A Closer Look at the WASDE and Inflation for Livestock
Today’s WASDE reduced the outlook for red meat and poultry production by 0.2 percent from August based on a lower outlook for red meat and a forecast...
PM Post - Split Decision
THE OPEN Nov beans: 3 higher Dec meal: 2.40 higher Dec soyoil: 24 lower Dec corn: 1 higher Dec wheat: 5 lower The markets ope...
Making Big Better; Papering Over/Jawboning; Policy; Powerfully Wrong
Making Big Better The Biden Administration claims that big is bad and that it wants to elevate competition, including by funneling cash to small meat proce...
Oilseed Bonanza
Rabobank reports that over $2 billion is being invested to expand North American oilseed crush capacity. Part will be to support the expansion in biodiesel...
Technical Views - Holding Pattern
SPREADS Dec. crush trades down to 90c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.43%. Dec/March corn spread narrows into 8c from 9 1/4c. Dec/March wh...
AM Outlook - Soft Ahead of Report
GOOD MORNING, Prices overnight generally were steady after a week of pressure. It is report day and the market has priced in a lot of bearish news, p...