Recent Biofuels Analysis
AP Quant: WASDE Vegoils
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Senate Farm Bill: What’s Next?
Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has urged farmers to apply pressure on the failed farm bill during the August recess. His intent is to hold another vote on the legislation as soon as possible upon the Senate’s return from a five-week break on 14 September. From a parliamentary perspecti...
WPI August Grain Balance Sheet Projections
Key Takeaways: WPI’s 2025/26 corn export models continue to reflect strong international demand and put the total marketing year volume slightly above USDA’s estimates. Strong old crop corn exports are offset by weaker feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks slightly ele...
Sugarcane: The World’s Most Abundant Crop but Often Overlooked
Key Takeaways: Sugarcane is the world’s largest crop by total production volume, surpassing major commodities such as corn, wheat, and soybeans, and supplies roughly 80 percent of global sugar production. Sugarcane’s perennial growth cycle allows farmers to harvest multiple crops f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
E15 Expansion Could Boost Corn Demand, But Adoption Faces Hurdles
Key Takeaways: E15 expansion would support corn and ethanol demand by increasing domestic biofuel consumption and reducing reliance on petroleum-based fuels. Year-round E15 has gained bipartisan momentum, but the policy remains in legislative limbo as lawmakers continue to negotiate provisions...
Senate Farm Bill Draft Released
Late Friday afternoon, Chairman John Boozman (R-Arkansas) released an updated draft of the Senate farm bill. The farm bill markup is scheduled for Thursday, 6 August at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Boozman has been negotiating with Ranking Minority Member Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota) to craft...
Biomass-Based Diesel Feedstock Update: May Sets Record for Soyoil Usage
Key Takeaways: Soyoil consumption as a biofuel feedstock climbed to a record 1.434 billion pounds in May, setting a new all-time monthly high. Improved 45Z policy clarity in February 2026 has supported stronger soyoil demand from the biofuel sector by providing producers with greater certainty...
Sorghum’s Growing Role in Ethanol Production
Key Takeaways: Sorghum is gaining importance as an alternative ethanol feedstock, particularly in the Southern Plains where ethanol plants can utilize the grain based on relative pricing and availability compared to corn. Sorghum’s drought tolerance makes it a valuable alternative to cor...
Banning Glyphosate Could be Expensive
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement has reached a critical point after the Supreme Court ruled on 25 June that Bayer is shielded from state-level lawsuits because federal regulation does not require the company to warn of alleged cancer risks from such products. Thousands of "failure...
New Mexico’s Clean Fuel Program Adds Pressure to Renewable Feedstock Markets
Key Takeaways: New Mexico’s Clean Transportation Fuel Program expands demand for low-carbon fuels and creates another market for renewable feedstocks, adding incremental pressure to already limited supplies of lower-carbon inputs. Growing competition for waste-based feedstocks such as an...
Trade Overview: USMCA, Brazil Section 301 Investigation, Section 122 Tariffs
USMCA Re-Negotiations At the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit on Friday, former USTR Robert Lighthizer stated that the USMCA renegotiations should focus on the trade deficit with Mexico rather than the trade pact itself. The U.S. deficit with Mexico exceeds $170 billion, including a net deficit...
USDA: From Bureaucracy to Ad Hocracy
There was a time, not so long ago, when you could easily explain U.S. agricultural policy. It was countercyclical and focused on risk management, especially for traditional row crops. There were a few exceptions, like dairy and sugar, which maintained the remnants of supply control. Participati...
Global Soybean Crush Margin Forecasts
Key Takeaways: Continued domestic demand for soyoil in the U.S. will drive prices higher and create a firmer outlook for global soybean values and crush margins. U.S. soyoil prices are set to increase 13-16 percent over the next four months as the domestic demand expansion takes hold. Th...
Ethanol Margin and Corn Use Outlook
The latest EIA data showed some interesting anomalies in the ethanol industry, changes that will have a material impact on the industry’s profits and corn consumption for 2025/26 and early 2026/27. The EIA reported that ethanol production fell 4.8 percent for the week ending 10 July...
Soyoil Clears an EU Regulatory Hurdle, but Demand Growth Faces Other Challenges
Key Takeaways: The European Parliament rejected a proposal to classify soyoil as a high ILUC-risk feedstock, preventing a potential phaseout from EU biofuel markets by 2030. Palm oil remains the only major vegetable oil designated as high ILUC-risk in the EU due to concerns over expansion into...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
High Oleic Soybeans: Premium Demand Growing, But Adoption Remains Limited
Key Takeaways: High oleic soybeans produce oil containing 70–80 percent oleic acid, improving stability and eliminating the need for partial hydrogenation, which eliminates trans fats. There are three primary varieties of high oleic soybeans available commercially: Plenish, Vistive Gold,...
Indonesia’s B50 Mandate Reshapes Global Vegetable Oil Markets
Key Takeaways: Indonesia will raise its biodiesel mandate from B40 to B50 on 1 July, increasing palm oil–based diesel blending to 50 percent. The policy supports domestic palm oil demand and reduces reliance on imported diesel. Indonesia’s biodiesel program has steadily expanded si...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Naturally Resilient Crops Are Key to Drought Mitigation
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
Waste Feedstock Constraints Revive Demand for Crop-Based Biofuels
Key Takeaways: Early U.S. biofuel policy relied primarily on crop-based feedstocks such as corn and vegetable oils. California's LCFS increased demand for waste-derived feedstocks by rewarding fuels with lower carbon intensity scores. Supplies of used cooking oil, animal fats, and distillers c...
Market Commentary: Technical Pressure, Crude Oil Decoupling Drive CBOT Selling
What You Need to Know Today: The USTR says Brazil has committed “unreasonable” acts against global trade rules and is recommending at 25 percent tariff on nearly all Brazilian ag products (unclear whether this includes beef amid President Trump’s effort to lower beef prices)...
Cellulosic Ethanol Fell Short of Expectations, but New Opportunities Are Emerging
Key Takeaways: The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set a goal of producing 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol annually by 2022, but actual production reached only a small fraction of that target. High production costs, feedstock collection challenges, and technological hurdl...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Brazil’s Emerging Corn Ethanol Industry Driven by Market Forces and Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Brazil has been the second-largest producer of fuel ethanol globally, but almost all of it was derived from sugarcane until recently. Corn ethanol production has increased due to expanded second-crop corn production, sugarcane storage limitations, and biofuel policy. Brazil is e...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
Soyoil Prices Continue to Be Bullish Amid High Energy Prices and Favorable Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Soyoil futures have been trading at the highest levels since 2022. Higher crude oil prices have allowed biofuels to be more cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Recent U.S. biofuel policy, including 45Z, has been favorable toward soyoil as a feedstock. California will be limiting...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
Al Gore and the Unidentified Opportunity Costs
Twenty years ago, An Inconvenient Truth helped bring climate risk into the public foreground. Al Gore’s film and book contributed to a transformation in how climate change was understood, moving it from a largely scientific discussion into a broad political and cultural movement. Its infl...
E15: What Does It Mean?
Previous administrations—including that of President Donald Trump—have promoted domestic consumption of corn and soybeans through expanded biofuel mandates and subsidies. The original framework for this policy was the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which required the...
Quick Hits: Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins Update
Ethanol Ethanol production margins continue to experience a counter-seasonal surge, with the energy market rally driving the bulk of the move. Prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, U.S. ethanol margins were already trending above year-ago levels by $0.10-0.20/gallon...
Market Commentary: Expected Biofuel Announcement Cannot Dislodge War Worries
Thursday marked the worst day for stocks in weeks despite word on the street to “buy,” since valuations have once again become attractive. But apparently not yet. History suggests a rebound with President Trump politically compelled to dream up some form of policy stimulus on top of...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
45Z: The Next Big Thing or the Next Big Mess?
The U.S. Treasury Department is (still!) working on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. The broad legislative effort for the act was launched in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and picked up with some significant adjustments in President Trump’s One Big...
Ethanol Production Outlook Amid Energy Rally
Yesterday, WPI briefly examined how biodiesel production margins have surged alongside broader energy markets following the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict. The surge in energy prices lifted biodiesel margins to two-year, if not higher, levels and has exerted a similar, positive effect on ethanol pro...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
WPI Spring Acreage Outlook
Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...
Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...
E15 Dropped from Appropriations Bill
In a years-long, ongoing policy battle, a provision to secure E15 was dropped at the last minute from the appropriations bill. On paper, the path forward looks clear, as the oil refiners’ association is now onboard with E15; however, there are still many other smaller mechanisms in the le...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE
As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also generally lower trading ranges. The soybean complex traded higher on strength in coproducts but the rest of the board was mostly in the red...
Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes
Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis given the historical propensity for USDA’s January WASDE report to contain curve balls (see below). New sales of soybeans to China made...
Market Commentary: January WASDE is the Future
The pre-holiday risk-off, profit-taking mode continued on the last trading day of 2025. Traders closed out the calendar year with the expected low-level enthusiasm. Positions were tidied up with few fresh inputs as the past is the past and the future is now the USDA January WASDE report. ...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
AP Quant: WASDE Vegoils
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Senate Farm Bill: What’s Next?
Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has urged farmers to apply pressure on the failed farm bill during the August recess. His intent is to hold another vote on the legislation as soon as possible upon the Senate’s return from a five-week break on 14 September. From a parliamentary perspecti...
WPI August Grain Balance Sheet Projections
Key Takeaways: WPI’s 2025/26 corn export models continue to reflect strong international demand and put the total marketing year volume slightly above USDA’s estimates. Strong old crop corn exports are offset by weaker feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks slightly ele...
Sugarcane: The World’s Most Abundant Crop but Often Overlooked
Key Takeaways: Sugarcane is the world’s largest crop by total production volume, surpassing major commodities such as corn, wheat, and soybeans, and supplies roughly 80 percent of global sugar production. Sugarcane’s perennial growth cycle allows farmers to harvest multiple crops f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
E15 Expansion Could Boost Corn Demand, But Adoption Faces Hurdles
Key Takeaways: E15 expansion would support corn and ethanol demand by increasing domestic biofuel consumption and reducing reliance on petroleum-based fuels. Year-round E15 has gained bipartisan momentum, but the policy remains in legislative limbo as lawmakers continue to negotiate provisions...
Senate Farm Bill Draft Released
Late Friday afternoon, Chairman John Boozman (R-Arkansas) released an updated draft of the Senate farm bill. The farm bill markup is scheduled for Thursday, 6 August at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Boozman has been negotiating with Ranking Minority Member Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota) to craft...
Biomass-Based Diesel Feedstock Update: May Sets Record for Soyoil Usage
Key Takeaways: Soyoil consumption as a biofuel feedstock climbed to a record 1.434 billion pounds in May, setting a new all-time monthly high. Improved 45Z policy clarity in February 2026 has supported stronger soyoil demand from the biofuel sector by providing producers with greater certainty...
Sorghum’s Growing Role in Ethanol Production
Key Takeaways: Sorghum is gaining importance as an alternative ethanol feedstock, particularly in the Southern Plains where ethanol plants can utilize the grain based on relative pricing and availability compared to corn. Sorghum’s drought tolerance makes it a valuable alternative to cor...
Banning Glyphosate Could be Expensive
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement has reached a critical point after the Supreme Court ruled on 25 June that Bayer is shielded from state-level lawsuits because federal regulation does not require the company to warn of alleged cancer risks from such products. Thousands of "failure...
New Mexico’s Clean Fuel Program Adds Pressure to Renewable Feedstock Markets
Key Takeaways: New Mexico’s Clean Transportation Fuel Program expands demand for low-carbon fuels and creates another market for renewable feedstocks, adding incremental pressure to already limited supplies of lower-carbon inputs. Growing competition for waste-based feedstocks such as an...
Trade Overview: USMCA, Brazil Section 301 Investigation, Section 122 Tariffs
USMCA Re-Negotiations At the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit on Friday, former USTR Robert Lighthizer stated that the USMCA renegotiations should focus on the trade deficit with Mexico rather than the trade pact itself. The U.S. deficit with Mexico exceeds $170 billion, including a net deficit...
USDA: From Bureaucracy to Ad Hocracy
There was a time, not so long ago, when you could easily explain U.S. agricultural policy. It was countercyclical and focused on risk management, especially for traditional row crops. There were a few exceptions, like dairy and sugar, which maintained the remnants of supply control. Participati...
Global Soybean Crush Margin Forecasts
Key Takeaways: Continued domestic demand for soyoil in the U.S. will drive prices higher and create a firmer outlook for global soybean values and crush margins. U.S. soyoil prices are set to increase 13-16 percent over the next four months as the domestic demand expansion takes hold. Th...
Ethanol Margin and Corn Use Outlook
The latest EIA data showed some interesting anomalies in the ethanol industry, changes that will have a material impact on the industry’s profits and corn consumption for 2025/26 and early 2026/27. The EIA reported that ethanol production fell 4.8 percent for the week ending 10 July...
Soyoil Clears an EU Regulatory Hurdle, but Demand Growth Faces Other Challenges
Key Takeaways: The European Parliament rejected a proposal to classify soyoil as a high ILUC-risk feedstock, preventing a potential phaseout from EU biofuel markets by 2030. Palm oil remains the only major vegetable oil designated as high ILUC-risk in the EU due to concerns over expansion into...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
High Oleic Soybeans: Premium Demand Growing, But Adoption Remains Limited
Key Takeaways: High oleic soybeans produce oil containing 70–80 percent oleic acid, improving stability and eliminating the need for partial hydrogenation, which eliminates trans fats. There are three primary varieties of high oleic soybeans available commercially: Plenish, Vistive Gold,...
Indonesia’s B50 Mandate Reshapes Global Vegetable Oil Markets
Key Takeaways: Indonesia will raise its biodiesel mandate from B40 to B50 on 1 July, increasing palm oil–based diesel blending to 50 percent. The policy supports domestic palm oil demand and reduces reliance on imported diesel. Indonesia’s biodiesel program has steadily expanded si...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Naturally Resilient Crops Are Key to Drought Mitigation
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
Waste Feedstock Constraints Revive Demand for Crop-Based Biofuels
Key Takeaways: Early U.S. biofuel policy relied primarily on crop-based feedstocks such as corn and vegetable oils. California's LCFS increased demand for waste-derived feedstocks by rewarding fuels with lower carbon intensity scores. Supplies of used cooking oil, animal fats, and distillers c...
Market Commentary: Technical Pressure, Crude Oil Decoupling Drive CBOT Selling
What You Need to Know Today: The USTR says Brazil has committed “unreasonable” acts against global trade rules and is recommending at 25 percent tariff on nearly all Brazilian ag products (unclear whether this includes beef amid President Trump’s effort to lower beef prices)...
Cellulosic Ethanol Fell Short of Expectations, but New Opportunities Are Emerging
Key Takeaways: The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set a goal of producing 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol annually by 2022, but actual production reached only a small fraction of that target. High production costs, feedstock collection challenges, and technological hurdl...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Brazil’s Emerging Corn Ethanol Industry Driven by Market Forces and Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Brazil has been the second-largest producer of fuel ethanol globally, but almost all of it was derived from sugarcane until recently. Corn ethanol production has increased due to expanded second-crop corn production, sugarcane storage limitations, and biofuel policy. Brazil is e...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
Soyoil Prices Continue to Be Bullish Amid High Energy Prices and Favorable Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Soyoil futures have been trading at the highest levels since 2022. Higher crude oil prices have allowed biofuels to be more cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Recent U.S. biofuel policy, including 45Z, has been favorable toward soyoil as a feedstock. California will be limiting...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
Al Gore and the Unidentified Opportunity Costs
Twenty years ago, An Inconvenient Truth helped bring climate risk into the public foreground. Al Gore’s film and book contributed to a transformation in how climate change was understood, moving it from a largely scientific discussion into a broad political and cultural movement. Its infl...
E15: What Does It Mean?
Previous administrations—including that of President Donald Trump—have promoted domestic consumption of corn and soybeans through expanded biofuel mandates and subsidies. The original framework for this policy was the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which required the...
Quick Hits: Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins Update
Ethanol Ethanol production margins continue to experience a counter-seasonal surge, with the energy market rally driving the bulk of the move. Prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, U.S. ethanol margins were already trending above year-ago levels by $0.10-0.20/gallon...
Market Commentary: Expected Biofuel Announcement Cannot Dislodge War Worries
Thursday marked the worst day for stocks in weeks despite word on the street to “buy,” since valuations have once again become attractive. But apparently not yet. History suggests a rebound with President Trump politically compelled to dream up some form of policy stimulus on top of...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
45Z: The Next Big Thing or the Next Big Mess?
The U.S. Treasury Department is (still!) working on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. The broad legislative effort for the act was launched in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and picked up with some significant adjustments in President Trump’s One Big...
Ethanol Production Outlook Amid Energy Rally
Yesterday, WPI briefly examined how biodiesel production margins have surged alongside broader energy markets following the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict. The surge in energy prices lifted biodiesel margins to two-year, if not higher, levels and has exerted a similar, positive effect on ethanol pro...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
WPI Spring Acreage Outlook
Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...
Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...
E15 Dropped from Appropriations Bill
In a years-long, ongoing policy battle, a provision to secure E15 was dropped at the last minute from the appropriations bill. On paper, the path forward looks clear, as the oil refiners’ association is now onboard with E15; however, there are still many other smaller mechanisms in the le...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE
As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also generally lower trading ranges. The soybean complex traded higher on strength in coproducts but the rest of the board was mostly in the red...
Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes
Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis given the historical propensity for USDA’s January WASDE report to contain curve balls (see below). New sales of soybeans to China made...
Market Commentary: January WASDE is the Future
The pre-holiday risk-off, profit-taking mode continued on the last trading day of 2025. Traders closed out the calendar year with the expected low-level enthusiasm. Positions were tidied up with few fresh inputs as the past is the past and the future is now the USDA January WASDE report. ...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...