Recent Feed Grains Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Wheat stocks in Egypt are at good levels, with only limited import interest. However, there is some concern over the supply of wheat from the Black Sea later in the year due to current weather problem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, up $0.7 from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 15 June)
Developer's Note: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where obs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall across most of Argentina's agricultural regions during the past week slowed the pace of 2026/27 wheat planting. Even so, planting progress has reached 44.2 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares, following a weekly advance of 11.8 percentage points. Fieldwork was concentra...
Peace Deal in Iran: What Does It Mean for Ags?
Early Sunday evening, President Trump and Iranian officials confirmed the two countries have agreed to a peace deal. The agreement notes the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened (though President Trump cautioned time would be needed “for purposes of mine removal”) and the U.S. bl...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.135/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Quiet Trade Follows WASDE as Livestock Sector Faces Capacity Shifts
What You Need to Know Today: It was a quiet trading day across major agricultural commodities, with most contracts closing within 1 percent of the previous day's settlement. Trading volumes for corn and the soy complex were lighter than earlier in the week, as traders were positioning before a...
Regenerate, or not? You Get to Choose
It is easy to get overwhelmed by the debates surrounding farm policy and crop production, especially the current back-and-forth about regenerative agriculture. Regeneration appears to be the word of the decade, the one that won’t go away. Its ubiquity cannot be ignored; in the same way we...
WASDE Corn - June 2026
USDA’s June outlook for 2026/27 U.S. corn is unchanged from last month. Slightly higher ending stocks for 2026/27 results in no change for the season-average price received by U.S. farmers producers at $4.40 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2026/27 is forecast 5.8 million to...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8675/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.15/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.7/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: June WASDE Light on Major Balance Sheet Changes
What You Need to Know Today: The June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations, with no major market-altering changes to the balance sheets. The Producer Price Index rose by 1.1 percent month-over-month in May 2026, exceeding economist estimates of a 0.7 percent rise. The annual head...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.875/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.23/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.9/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: The Return of Risk Premium
Key Market Insights Macro Markets: Inflation and Iran Reenter the Conversation Just when the grain trade had become comfortable focusing almost exclusively on weather, two major macro stories returned to the spotlight this morning: inflation and Iran. May CPI came in hotter than expected, with...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 June 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing the first signs of the new season. The shift became visible on export trading platforms as global bearish sentiment intensified, supported by improving crop expectations across Russia's sou...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1375/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $1.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Stabilization Continues, But What Next?
What You Need to Know Today: Early Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Secretary said vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising in a “very meaningful way.” Tuesday afternoon, however, President Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormu...
China Market Analysis
Miscellaneous Initial excitement over China’s pledges to buy American farm products has faded, as no purchases have immediately materialized. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet its purchase commitments from the U.S., but market conditions and tra...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s currency has weakened in the past few weeks as higher energy costs related to the US/Iran conflict have pushed import prices up. Imports are paid mainly in US dollars and demand for the dollar has caused the Egyptian...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.7/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT, Sends Wheat Higher and Soybeans Lower
What You Need to Know Today: After a volatile weekend with Israel and Iran launching attacks at each other, peace seems to have returned to the region after President Trump called for both sides to cease hostilities. Soybean trade remains defensive as funds are liquidating longs amid no signs...
Mexico’s Drought Accelerated the Growth of U.S. Corn Exports
Key Takeaways: Mexico's drought intensified from 2022 to 2024, with critically low reservoir levels in Sinaloa driving a sharp decline in corn production. Sinaloa produces roughly one-quarter of Mexico's corn crop and is the country's leading supplier of white corn used for staple foods such a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Planting of the 2026/27 wheat crop continues at an exceptional pace, with 32.4 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares already seeded. This represents the fastest progress for this time of year since at least the 1998/99 season. Favorable soil moisture conditions have supported rapi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 188,000 contracts (23 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just four weeks...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.5/short ton, down $5.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Lowers Risk Appetite
What You Need to Know Today: Non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 jobs in May, above economist expectations of 80,000 jobs. With the job market strong, the Fed may consider raising interest rates to tame inflation. The strong jobs report was a catalyst for lower risk appetite across financial and...
Market Commentary: New World Screwworm Appears in the U.S., Grains and Soy Sink
What You Need to Know Today: A case of New World Screwworm was detected in Texas, the first in the U.S. since 1966. With cases creeping closer to the U.S. border, it was only a matter of time. APHIS confirmed that larvae were detected in the umbilical area of a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.245/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.295/bushel, down $0.245 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $313.7/short ton, down $7.1...
Market Commentary: Risk Premium: Gone or Just Hiding?
Key Market Insights Macro: Dollar Up, Stocks Down The U.S. dollar moved higher today, creating another headwind for American exports. A stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive on the global market and can make it harder for exporters to compete against South American and Black Sea...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8725/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.54/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $5...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market, 25-29 May 2026 Russian grain markets remained firm across most of European Russia last week, while activity in Asian regions was more mixed. Farmer selling remains limited despite large carryover stocks, helping support domestic values. The spread between old-crop and new-...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.03/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6525/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.2/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Technical Pressure, Crude Oil Decoupling Drive CBOT Selling
What You Need to Know Today: The USTR says Brazil has committed “unreasonable” acts against global trade rules and is recommending at 25 percent tariff on nearly all Brazilian ag products (unclear whether this includes beef amid President Trump’s effort to lower beef prices)...
Cellulosic Ethanol Fell Short of Expectations, but New Opportunities Are Emerging
Key Takeaways: The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set a goal of producing 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol annually by 2022, but actual production reached only a small fraction of that target. High production costs, feedstock collection challenges, and technological hurdl...
China Market Analysis
Corn The U.S. has yet to ship any corn to China, though last year’s sales were a paltry 32 KMT. Soybeans U.S. soybean export inspections for May rose above the previous year’s level with China as the target market. Citing reduced demand for soymeal, the Ministry of Agriculture...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MENA Region Pakistan has made “major amendments” to its biosafety regulations that it says will “simplify licensing procedures, ease import restrictions and facilitate laboratory research”. Companies will have to appl...
Market Commentary: Bears Control CBOT at Least Until Weather Market Forms
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Friday that the U.S. has seized $1b of Iranian crypto assets. Iran’s IGGC says 15 merchant vessels, including 4 oil tankers, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Managed money traders...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.0875/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8075/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, down $3...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Export Tax Reform The Argentine government announced a new long-term schedule for reducing export taxes ("retenciones"), one of the main policy tools affecting agricultural profitability and farmer selling decisions. Export taxes are applied directly to export values and have historic...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long 169,000 contracts (17 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just three weeks pr...
Market Commentary: Risk-off tone hits grains and livestock
What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.105/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $329.8/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.945/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.1/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Market Commentary: Trading Headlines, Pricing Risk
Key Market Insights Today was another reminder that this market is trading headlines first, facts second. Early optimism surrounding reports of a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding helped pressure energy risk premium and kept the broader commodity space defensive. An hour later, how...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8525/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.6/short ton, up $2 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market, 18-22 May 2026 Last week, Russian grain markets remained bullish all over the European part of the country. This times, even the Asian regions saw prices recover to new levels. This rally occurred on the heels of zero export duties and a very strong RUB. The rally i...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Better Weather, Geopolitical Trade Dynamics
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. conducted “self-defense strikes” in Iran and said the two sides are “close” to negotiating a ceasefire. “Close” is a relative term, however, and even if 95 percent of the terms are agreed to, the remaining 5 percent is l...
Brazil’s Emerging Corn Ethanol Industry Driven by Market Forces and Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Brazil has been the second-largest producer of fuel ethanol globally, but almost all of it was derived from sugarcane until recently. Corn ethanol production has increased due to expanded second-crop corn production, sugarcane storage limitations, and biofuel policy. Brazil is e...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.355/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.86/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, down $3...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
China Market Analysis
Grain China’s General Administration of Customs says that grain imports were up 34.3 percent in April and an overall 18.1 percent for the January to April period. On the one hand, China produces more grain that it consumes and stockpiles large volumes. But Canadian grain analyst Mitch Mil...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Eid Al-Adha will be celebrated in the Muslim world from 27 to 30 May 2026. The actual dates vary by country. Governments, banks and businesses will all be closed during this period. Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government reports tha...
Market Commentary: Small Gains as Corn/Soybeans Correct; Commodity Supercycle
What You Need to Know Today: The corn and soybean markets closed slightly higher in low-volume trade. The wheat market was mixed, with HRW continuing its downward trek on improved moisture. As expected, the bearish cattle on feed report drove down cattle prices and pulled hogs down with it. Mi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.965/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, up $3.5 fr...
Market Commentary: A Market Trading War — Until It Wasn’t
Key Market Insights Macro markets delivered a full whipsaw today. Early in the session, crude oil had rallied back above $100/barrel as traders priced renewed concern over the U.S.-Iran standoff and potential supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz. That strength helped pull grains off their o...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6225/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.475/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Lower on Improved Weather, Pre-Holiday Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese officials indicated that China and the U.S. have agreed to cut 10 percent tariffs on imports. Chinese officials confirmed that a “guiding target” has been set for purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, but fell short of confirming that the U.S. r...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6575/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9975/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.9/short ton, down...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 - 15 May 2026 The Russian grains market showed a broadly bullish tone across the European part of the country during the week, while conditions in the Asian regions remained stable to slightly bearish. In the southern federal district, the key wheat export hub, prices...
Market Commentary: Markets Pause to Assess China Deal Amid Broadly Bullish Backdrop
What You Need to Know Today: Excitement over China’s agreement to purchase $17 billion of U.S. ag commodities subsided, as traders are cautious amid the yet-unspecified allocation of those purchases. Monday’s Crop Progress report did not significantly change the narrative for corn...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts, reversing a three-week buying trend. Funds reduced the net long on all-ags by 92,000 contracts (8.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016. The...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.6725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.095/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $332.3/short ton, down $2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran is said to import about 20 million MT of grains and oilseeds annually through Persian Gulf ports, plus about 5.0 million MT on the Caspian Sea. Maize, soybeans, soymeal, and vegetable oil are all highly dependent on imports &...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.77/bushel, up $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.645/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.13/bushel, up $0.36 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.5/short ton, up $0.2 from yes...
Market Commentary: Assumptions, Uncertainty, Volatility
What You Need to Know Today: Markets opened double digits higher Sunday evening following the release of Chinese and American official summaries of bilateral discussions last week. They chose the more optimistic view of future Chinese purchases of American farm goods versus the more opaque inte...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest remains virtually stalled as producers continue prioritizing the soybean harvest, which has advanced rapidly in recent weeks. During the past week, corn harvest progress increased only two percentage points, while soybean harvest advanced more than 30 percent...
Market Commentary: Funds Come Off Their High Horse
With no bullish surprise out of Beijing this week and good weather taking over many global crop areas, funds spent the past couple of days selling off the peak positions they had built. CNN’s Live Updates blared, “No signs Trump and Xi resolved any thorny challenges.” By...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.3575/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.77/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.3/short ton, up $1...
Market Commentary: Lack of China Specifics Sink Market
There was heavy volume exiting soybeans, which dragged down the broader market today. The lack of a specific Chinese buying commitment for soybeans undermined speculators who had placed bets on state-directed trade. But even the Chinese do not totally ignore market fundamentals. They may still...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.58/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, down $0.365 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $6 f...
Market Commentary: War, Weather, and Waiting
Key Market Insights The broad market is locked in on this week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, but this is no longer just a trade summit. Increasingly, the meeting is becoming tied directly to Iran, energy security, and the growing global economic fallout from disruptions through the Strai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 - 8 May 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing more bullish sentiment despite the traditionally slow pace of business during the May holiday period. Russia celebrates several holidays during early May, with Victory Day on 9 May being t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.755/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.29/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $338.5/short ton, up $10.1 fr...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
Xi-Trump Summit Bottom Line
If the media headlines and Trump critics are to be believed, President Trump is headed to Beijing this Thursday in a weakened position. China is in control, it has the upper hand, and expectations are very low. These are the same critics that argue against overly simplistic zero-sum analyses in...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional News Egypt reiterated plans to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat supplies for the country’s subsidized bread program by 2028, although the target remains ambitious given current production and consumption dynamics. Egypt consumes approximately 21 MMT of wheat annually, with rough...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.79/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2675/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $3.6 from yes...
Market Commentary: Risks Abound During Headline Week
What You Need to Know Today: Energy markets are sharply higher after President Trump rejected a weekend Iranian counter proposal that did not include limits on the country’s nuclear program. The ceasefire looks increasingly fragile, with energy markets unlikely to return to normal soon...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest remains practically paralyzed, with weekly progress of less than 2 percent, in sharp contrast to soybeans, which advanced 16 percentage points. Rainfall across much of the agricultural region, with accumulations exceeding 100 mm and strong winds in southeaste...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.13/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $5.1 from yester...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to net long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week as weather concerns sustained risk-on buying. Funds added 97,000 contracts (9.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week, essentially reversing the...
Market Commentary: Equities Easily Outperform Ags
What You Need to Know Today Ag markets have placed bets on new soybean demand from China after next week’s Xi-Trump meeting. While the media predicts no major deals or agreements, Beijing sees Trump as transactional so it will “buy” some stability, and soybeans are relatively...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.19/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.08/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $319.7/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Al Gore and the Unidentified Opportunity Costs
Twenty years ago, An Inconvenient Truth helped bring climate risk into the public foreground. Al Gore’s film and book contributed to a transformation in how climate change was understood, moving it from a largely scientific discussion into a broad political and cultural movement. Its infl...
Market Commentary: Prices Slide on a Hiatus in the Market
What You Need to Know Today Agricultural futures spent a third straight session mostly lower after partially recovering from morning lows. The war in Iran continues to drive energy markets with spillover into ags. After two days lower, crude oil turned higher after Iran demanded unlikely...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1225/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, up $1.6 f...
Market Commentary: War Premium Out. Weather Premium Next?
Key Market Insights Macros: Macro markets traded a sharp shift in tone Wednesday as traders aggressively pulled risk premium from the market on growing optimism surrounding a possible U.S.–Iran agreement. Crude oil briefly traded back below $89/barrel while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 push...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1725/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $317.3/short ton, down $...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 April - 1 May 2026 The Russian grains market remained volatile but predominantly bullish during the week in review. However, ruble (RUB) movements continue to distort domestic price signals. With export duties at zero for three consecutive weeks and export prices relat...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Wheat stocks in Egypt are at good levels, with only limited import interest. However, there is some concern over the supply of wheat from the Black Sea later in the year due to current weather problem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, up $0.7 from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 15 June)
Developer's Note: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where obs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall across most of Argentina's agricultural regions during the past week slowed the pace of 2026/27 wheat planting. Even so, planting progress has reached 44.2 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares, following a weekly advance of 11.8 percentage points. Fieldwork was concentra...
Peace Deal in Iran: What Does It Mean for Ags?
Early Sunday evening, President Trump and Iranian officials confirmed the two countries have agreed to a peace deal. The agreement notes the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened (though President Trump cautioned time would be needed “for purposes of mine removal”) and the U.S. bl...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.135/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Quiet Trade Follows WASDE as Livestock Sector Faces Capacity Shifts
What You Need to Know Today: It was a quiet trading day across major agricultural commodities, with most contracts closing within 1 percent of the previous day's settlement. Trading volumes for corn and the soy complex were lighter than earlier in the week, as traders were positioning before a...
Regenerate, or not? You Get to Choose
It is easy to get overwhelmed by the debates surrounding farm policy and crop production, especially the current back-and-forth about regenerative agriculture. Regeneration appears to be the word of the decade, the one that won’t go away. Its ubiquity cannot be ignored; in the same way we...
WASDE Corn - June 2026
USDA’s June outlook for 2026/27 U.S. corn is unchanged from last month. Slightly higher ending stocks for 2026/27 results in no change for the season-average price received by U.S. farmers producers at $4.40 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2026/27 is forecast 5.8 million to...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8675/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.15/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.7/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: June WASDE Light on Major Balance Sheet Changes
What You Need to Know Today: The June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations, with no major market-altering changes to the balance sheets. The Producer Price Index rose by 1.1 percent month-over-month in May 2026, exceeding economist estimates of a 0.7 percent rise. The annual head...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.875/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.23/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.9/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: The Return of Risk Premium
Key Market Insights Macro Markets: Inflation and Iran Reenter the Conversation Just when the grain trade had become comfortable focusing almost exclusively on weather, two major macro stories returned to the spotlight this morning: inflation and Iran. May CPI came in hotter than expected, with...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 June 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing the first signs of the new season. The shift became visible on export trading platforms as global bearish sentiment intensified, supported by improving crop expectations across Russia's sou...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1375/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $1.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Stabilization Continues, But What Next?
What You Need to Know Today: Early Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Secretary said vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising in a “very meaningful way.” Tuesday afternoon, however, President Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormu...
China Market Analysis
Miscellaneous Initial excitement over China’s pledges to buy American farm products has faded, as no purchases have immediately materialized. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet its purchase commitments from the U.S., but market conditions and tra...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s currency has weakened in the past few weeks as higher energy costs related to the US/Iran conflict have pushed import prices up. Imports are paid mainly in US dollars and demand for the dollar has caused the Egyptian...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.7/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT, Sends Wheat Higher and Soybeans Lower
What You Need to Know Today: After a volatile weekend with Israel and Iran launching attacks at each other, peace seems to have returned to the region after President Trump called for both sides to cease hostilities. Soybean trade remains defensive as funds are liquidating longs amid no signs...
Mexico’s Drought Accelerated the Growth of U.S. Corn Exports
Key Takeaways: Mexico's drought intensified from 2022 to 2024, with critically low reservoir levels in Sinaloa driving a sharp decline in corn production. Sinaloa produces roughly one-quarter of Mexico's corn crop and is the country's leading supplier of white corn used for staple foods such a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Planting of the 2026/27 wheat crop continues at an exceptional pace, with 32.4 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares already seeded. This represents the fastest progress for this time of year since at least the 1998/99 season. Favorable soil moisture conditions have supported rapi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 188,000 contracts (23 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just four weeks...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.5/short ton, down $5.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Lowers Risk Appetite
What You Need to Know Today: Non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 jobs in May, above economist expectations of 80,000 jobs. With the job market strong, the Fed may consider raising interest rates to tame inflation. The strong jobs report was a catalyst for lower risk appetite across financial and...
Market Commentary: New World Screwworm Appears in the U.S., Grains and Soy Sink
What You Need to Know Today: A case of New World Screwworm was detected in Texas, the first in the U.S. since 1966. With cases creeping closer to the U.S. border, it was only a matter of time. APHIS confirmed that larvae were detected in the umbilical area of a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.245/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.295/bushel, down $0.245 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $313.7/short ton, down $7.1...
Market Commentary: Risk Premium: Gone or Just Hiding?
Key Market Insights Macro: Dollar Up, Stocks Down The U.S. dollar moved higher today, creating another headwind for American exports. A stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive on the global market and can make it harder for exporters to compete against South American and Black Sea...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8725/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.54/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $5...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market, 25-29 May 2026 Russian grain markets remained firm across most of European Russia last week, while activity in Asian regions was more mixed. Farmer selling remains limited despite large carryover stocks, helping support domestic values. The spread between old-crop and new-...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.03/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6525/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.2/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Technical Pressure, Crude Oil Decoupling Drive CBOT Selling
What You Need to Know Today: The USTR says Brazil has committed “unreasonable” acts against global trade rules and is recommending at 25 percent tariff on nearly all Brazilian ag products (unclear whether this includes beef amid President Trump’s effort to lower beef prices)...
Cellulosic Ethanol Fell Short of Expectations, but New Opportunities Are Emerging
Key Takeaways: The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set a goal of producing 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol annually by 2022, but actual production reached only a small fraction of that target. High production costs, feedstock collection challenges, and technological hurdl...
China Market Analysis
Corn The U.S. has yet to ship any corn to China, though last year’s sales were a paltry 32 KMT. Soybeans U.S. soybean export inspections for May rose above the previous year’s level with China as the target market. Citing reduced demand for soymeal, the Ministry of Agriculture...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MENA Region Pakistan has made “major amendments” to its biosafety regulations that it says will “simplify licensing procedures, ease import restrictions and facilitate laboratory research”. Companies will have to appl...
Market Commentary: Bears Control CBOT at Least Until Weather Market Forms
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Friday that the U.S. has seized $1b of Iranian crypto assets. Iran’s IGGC says 15 merchant vessels, including 4 oil tankers, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Managed money traders...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.0875/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8075/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, down $3...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Export Tax Reform The Argentine government announced a new long-term schedule for reducing export taxes ("retenciones"), one of the main policy tools affecting agricultural profitability and farmer selling decisions. Export taxes are applied directly to export values and have historic...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long 169,000 contracts (17 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just three weeks pr...
Market Commentary: Risk-off tone hits grains and livestock
What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.105/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $329.8/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.945/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.1/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Market Commentary: Trading Headlines, Pricing Risk
Key Market Insights Today was another reminder that this market is trading headlines first, facts second. Early optimism surrounding reports of a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding helped pressure energy risk premium and kept the broader commodity space defensive. An hour later, how...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8525/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.6/short ton, up $2 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market, 18-22 May 2026 Last week, Russian grain markets remained bullish all over the European part of the country. This times, even the Asian regions saw prices recover to new levels. This rally occurred on the heels of zero export duties and a very strong RUB. The rally i...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Better Weather, Geopolitical Trade Dynamics
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. conducted “self-defense strikes” in Iran and said the two sides are “close” to negotiating a ceasefire. “Close” is a relative term, however, and even if 95 percent of the terms are agreed to, the remaining 5 percent is l...
Brazil’s Emerging Corn Ethanol Industry Driven by Market Forces and Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Brazil has been the second-largest producer of fuel ethanol globally, but almost all of it was derived from sugarcane until recently. Corn ethanol production has increased due to expanded second-crop corn production, sugarcane storage limitations, and biofuel policy. Brazil is e...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.355/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.86/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, down $3...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
China Market Analysis
Grain China’s General Administration of Customs says that grain imports were up 34.3 percent in April and an overall 18.1 percent for the January to April period. On the one hand, China produces more grain that it consumes and stockpiles large volumes. But Canadian grain analyst Mitch Mil...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Eid Al-Adha will be celebrated in the Muslim world from 27 to 30 May 2026. The actual dates vary by country. Governments, banks and businesses will all be closed during this period. Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government reports tha...
Market Commentary: Small Gains as Corn/Soybeans Correct; Commodity Supercycle
What You Need to Know Today: The corn and soybean markets closed slightly higher in low-volume trade. The wheat market was mixed, with HRW continuing its downward trek on improved moisture. As expected, the bearish cattle on feed report drove down cattle prices and pulled hogs down with it. Mi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.965/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, up $3.5 fr...
Market Commentary: A Market Trading War — Until It Wasn’t
Key Market Insights Macro markets delivered a full whipsaw today. Early in the session, crude oil had rallied back above $100/barrel as traders priced renewed concern over the U.S.-Iran standoff and potential supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz. That strength helped pull grains off their o...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6225/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.475/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Lower on Improved Weather, Pre-Holiday Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese officials indicated that China and the U.S. have agreed to cut 10 percent tariffs on imports. Chinese officials confirmed that a “guiding target” has been set for purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, but fell short of confirming that the U.S. r...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.6575/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9975/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $330.9/short ton, down...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 - 15 May 2026 The Russian grains market showed a broadly bullish tone across the European part of the country during the week, while conditions in the Asian regions remained stable to slightly bearish. In the southern federal district, the key wheat export hub, prices...
Market Commentary: Markets Pause to Assess China Deal Amid Broadly Bullish Backdrop
What You Need to Know Today: Excitement over China’s agreement to purchase $17 billion of U.S. ag commodities subsided, as traders are cautious amid the yet-unspecified allocation of those purchases. Monday’s Crop Progress report did not significantly change the narrative for corn...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts, reversing a three-week buying trend. Funds reduced the net long on all-ags by 92,000 contracts (8.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016. The...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.6725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.095/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $332.3/short ton, down $2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran is said to import about 20 million MT of grains and oilseeds annually through Persian Gulf ports, plus about 5.0 million MT on the Caspian Sea. Maize, soybeans, soymeal, and vegetable oil are all highly dependent on imports &...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.77/bushel, up $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.645/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.13/bushel, up $0.36 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.5/short ton, up $0.2 from yes...
Market Commentary: Assumptions, Uncertainty, Volatility
What You Need to Know Today: Markets opened double digits higher Sunday evening following the release of Chinese and American official summaries of bilateral discussions last week. They chose the more optimistic view of future Chinese purchases of American farm goods versus the more opaque inte...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest remains virtually stalled as producers continue prioritizing the soybean harvest, which has advanced rapidly in recent weeks. During the past week, corn harvest progress increased only two percentage points, while soybean harvest advanced more than 30 percent...
Market Commentary: Funds Come Off Their High Horse
With no bullish surprise out of Beijing this week and good weather taking over many global crop areas, funds spent the past couple of days selling off the peak positions they had built. CNN’s Live Updates blared, “No signs Trump and Xi resolved any thorny challenges.” By...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.3575/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.77/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $334.3/short ton, up $1...
Market Commentary: Lack of China Specifics Sink Market
There was heavy volume exiting soybeans, which dragged down the broader market today. The lack of a specific Chinese buying commitment for soybeans undermined speculators who had placed bets on state-directed trade. But even the Chinese do not totally ignore market fundamentals. They may still...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.58/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, down $0.365 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $6 f...
Market Commentary: War, Weather, and Waiting
Key Market Insights The broad market is locked in on this week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, but this is no longer just a trade summit. Increasingly, the meeting is becoming tied directly to Iran, energy security, and the growing global economic fallout from disruptions through the Strai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 - 8 May 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing more bullish sentiment despite the traditionally slow pace of business during the May holiday period. Russia celebrates several holidays during early May, with Victory Day on 9 May being t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.755/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.29/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $338.5/short ton, up $10.1 fr...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
Xi-Trump Summit Bottom Line
If the media headlines and Trump critics are to be believed, President Trump is headed to Beijing this Thursday in a weakened position. China is in control, it has the upper hand, and expectations are very low. These are the same critics that argue against overly simplistic zero-sum analyses in...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional News Egypt reiterated plans to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat supplies for the country’s subsidized bread program by 2028, although the target remains ambitious given current production and consumption dynamics. Egypt consumes approximately 21 MMT of wheat annually, with rough...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.8/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.79/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2675/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $3.6 from yes...
Market Commentary: Risks Abound During Headline Week
What You Need to Know Today: Energy markets are sharply higher after President Trump rejected a weekend Iranian counter proposal that did not include limits on the country’s nuclear program. The ceasefire looks increasingly fragile, with energy markets unlikely to return to normal soon...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest remains practically paralyzed, with weekly progress of less than 2 percent, in sharp contrast to soybeans, which advanced 16 percentage points. Rainfall across much of the agricultural region, with accumulations exceeding 100 mm and strong winds in southeaste...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.13/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $5.1 from yester...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to net long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week as weather concerns sustained risk-on buying. Funds added 97,000 contracts (9.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week, essentially reversing the...
Market Commentary: Equities Easily Outperform Ags
What You Need to Know Today Ag markets have placed bets on new soybean demand from China after next week’s Xi-Trump meeting. While the media predicts no major deals or agreements, Beijing sees Trump as transactional so it will “buy” some stability, and soybeans are relatively...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.7125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.19/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $12.08/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $319.7/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Al Gore and the Unidentified Opportunity Costs
Twenty years ago, An Inconvenient Truth helped bring climate risk into the public foreground. Al Gore’s film and book contributed to a transformation in how climate change was understood, moving it from a largely scientific discussion into a broad political and cultural movement. Its infl...
Market Commentary: Prices Slide on a Hiatus in the Market
What You Need to Know Today Agricultural futures spent a third straight session mostly lower after partially recovering from morning lows. The war in Iran continues to drive energy markets with spillover into ags. After two days lower, crude oil turned higher after Iran demanded unlikely...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1225/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, up $1.6 f...
Market Commentary: War Premium Out. Weather Premium Next?
Key Market Insights Macros: Macro markets traded a sharp shift in tone Wednesday as traders aggressively pulled risk premium from the market on growing optimism surrounding a possible U.S.–Iran agreement. Crude oil briefly traded back below $89/barrel while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 push...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1725/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $317.3/short ton, down $...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 April - 1 May 2026 The Russian grains market remained volatile but predominantly bullish during the week in review. However, ruble (RUB) movements continue to distort domestic price signals. With export duties at zero for three consecutive weeks and export prices relat...