Recent Livestock Analysis
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Livestock Roundup: Latest CPI Data, Eggs Still in Driver’s Seat
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the “all items index” increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adj...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
Except for beef packer and feedlot placement margins, cattle and hog industry profits were broadly lower last week with the pork industry seeing the most pronounced weakness. Pork packer margins drifted lower on weaker pork values and despite slightly lower hog purchase costs. Last week’s...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America Healthy Again” message. He’s promoting state-level policies that ban ultra-processed foods and dyes in public schools, restrict...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Tight Supplies, Strong U.S. Demand to Support Cattle Prices Despite Trade War
Anyone following the beef and cattle markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Now, the outlook is further complicated by the tariffs that will be placed on Mexican feeder cattle impo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. We wi...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Near-record negative margins for beef packers continue to dominate discussion of livestock industry margins this week. Beef packer profits rebounded slightly last week on the heels of firmer beef markets, but remain at -$176/head, which is among the weakest levels in the past two decades. Feedl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Livestock Roundup: Latest CPI Data, Eggs Still in Driver’s Seat
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the “all items index” increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adj...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
Except for beef packer and feedlot placement margins, cattle and hog industry profits were broadly lower last week with the pork industry seeing the most pronounced weakness. Pork packer margins drifted lower on weaker pork values and despite slightly lower hog purchase costs. Last week’s...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America Healthy Again” message. He’s promoting state-level policies that ban ultra-processed foods and dyes in public schools, restrict...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Tight Supplies, Strong U.S. Demand to Support Cattle Prices Despite Trade War
Anyone following the beef and cattle markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Now, the outlook is further complicated by the tariffs that will be placed on Mexican feeder cattle impo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. We wi...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Near-record negative margins for beef packers continue to dominate discussion of livestock industry margins this week. Beef packer profits rebounded slightly last week on the heels of firmer beef markets, but remain at -$176/head, which is among the weakest levels in the past two decades. Feedl...