Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9375/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.67/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $334.4/short ton, up $4.7 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Discount Risk as Grains Quietly Hold Ground
Key Market Developments Macros & Energy: Outside markets continue to trade in a tug-of-war between escalation and de-escalation — and crude oil is right at the center of it. Overnight, crude pulled back toward $87 as headlines pointed to a potential resumption of peace negotiat...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.43/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.58/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $329.7/short ton, down $2.2 fro...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Falling Conditions; Cattle Surge to New Records
The CBOT received several pieces of key fundamental information on Tuesday, including updated production figures from CONAB, the results of the USDA’s Monday Crop Progress report, and fresh export sales of corn to Mexico. The result was that wheat popped higher on growing concerns for yie...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week to -$85/head, down from -$17/head the prior week, as continued strength in fed cattle prices again outpaced weakening boxed beef values. The Choice cutout declined $5.14/cwt to $386.41/cwt, while fed cattle prices rose $3.78/cwt to $388.36/cwt,...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4025/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8225/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6225/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Political Tail Still Wagging the Market Dog
Politics are once again the tail wagging the dog in commodity markets. U.S. negotiations with Iran fell apart (again) over the weekend after Iran refused to agree to a permanent end of its nuclear weapons program. Rather than a return to the recent status quo, however, markets are adjusting to...
JBS Strike Settled, Beef Sector Still Under Inflationary Pressure
JBS USA announced on Sunday that it has reached a new collective bargaining agreement with UFCW Local 7, allowing the Greeley beef production facility to return to normal operations. The plant had been on strike since 16 March, with approximately 3,800 workers affected. The plant has the capaci...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds paring back their net long position across the major ag futures contracts, ending a ten-week streak of net buying. Funds sold 62,000 contracts (6.4 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week with selling in corn, soybeans, and CBOT wheat respon...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.41/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.71/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7575/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $331.8/short ton, up $14.2 from...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Factors Equals Mixed Day
There are so many conflicting narratives between war and peace, rain and drought, hopes and fears, that it was a mixed day of trading on Friday, and a mixed outcome for the week. For today, corn suffered its sixth lower day in the past seven trading sessions. There was high volume in soyb...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.745/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $317.6/short ton, up $3.5...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals Replace War Trading
Geopolitics has proven that it beats weather as a volatility driver, but agricultural markets and financials returned to fundamentals today. The truce/non-truce/truce had its influences, with the soy sector following oil higher, but wheat traded down on stocks reports while corn buyers’ e...
Livestock Round Up: Red Meat Production Down, Broilers Up
USDA released the April WASDE today with new 2026 meat production forecasts, changed from the March release. Beef is now projected at 25.79 billion pounds, down 20 million from March, mostly on lower first-half steer and heifer slaughter. Higher cow slaughter will partially offset the reduced...
Market Commentary: Energies Collapse on Ceasefire News but Grains Reclaim Early Losses
Once again, Trump, Iran, and the Middle East were the hub around which the CBOT trade revolved on Wednesday. Late Tuesday, the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, just days after President Trump threatened to escalate attacks against the Middle Eastern country. In the annou...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8025/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.62/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.1/short ton, up $2.3...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5825/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, down $4.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Risk is Priced In — But Not Yet Believed
Key Market Developments Macro/Geopolitics: Markets are staring down a deadline tonight as President Donald Trump pushes Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 PM Eastern. So far, Iran has rejected the U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal — reportedly delivered through Pakistan &mdash...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins reversed sharply to -$17/head from $120/head the prior week, as rising fed cattle prices more than offset a modest decline in the Choice cutout. Fed cattle prices increased $12.92/cwt from the prior week while the cutout slipped $3.24/cwt, compressing gross margins and pushi...
Market Commentary: The Long-Run Draws Near
The CBOT markets were surprisingly insulated from a jump in crude oil that started the week. Crude oil futures rallied to $115/brl - their highest levels since the earliest days of the U.S.-Iran war - on rhetoric from the White House that signaled an escalation in the conflict. While the oil he...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6675/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1.4 fro...
Market Commentary: War and Easter Exit Strategy
There were a lot of moving parts on the last trading day of the holiday-shortened week, but liquidation and profit-taking may have been the strongest. A prolonged war and higher energy prices will impact consumption and inflation, while supporting biofuels. Storm systems may reduce some of the...
Poultry Production Rebounds on Heavier Weights
Through the week ending 21 March, U.S. broiler production remains well above year-ago levels, with total headcount surpassing 2.04 billion, a 3.63 percent increase compared to 2025. While overall supply levels continue to expand, the distribution across weight classes further highlights a prono...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.2/short ton, down $3 fr...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.975/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.685/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $318.2/short ton, up $1.8...
Market Commentary: Plenty of Information — No Clear Direction
Key Market Developments Macro: Tension Without Direction Markets are trading the tension between escalation and resolution — and neither side has control. Both equities and commodities tested key technical levels this week before reversing sharply on headlines suggesting — at least...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1625/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.71/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $316.4/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on USDA Data, Hopes for End to Middle East Conflict
Except for lean hog futures, the CBOT and CME markets were higher on Tuesday in a combination of bullish factors. The day’s strength started after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he is willing to end hostilities in the Middle East even if the Strait of Hor...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins eased slightly to $119/head, declining $7/head week over week as a modest softening in the cutout combined with a small increase in live cattle prices compressed margins. Despite the weekly pullback, margins remain sharply improved on a monthly basis (+$233/head), supported...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.07/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5975/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.9/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: CBOT Cautious Ahead of Acreage, Stocks Reports
The CBOT took a bit of a breather on Monday as traders waited for the upcoming Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, which the USDA will issue Tuesday at midday. Traders were reluctant to expand risk too much ahead of these two reports, which often change market direction and tone for...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the tenth straight week. Funds added 67,000 contracts (7.7 percent) to their all-ags net long position – nearly doubling the prior week’s purchases - with buying in corn and so...
Market Commentary: Expected Biofuel Announcement Cannot Dislodge War Worries
Thursday marked the worst day for stocks in weeks despite word on the street to “buy,” since valuations have once again become attractive. But apparently not yet. History suggests a rebound with President Trump politically compelled to dream up some form of policy stimulus on top of...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5925/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, down $6.8 from ye...
Grassley and Smith Introduce Meat Industry Consolidation Bill
Previously, on 24 March, WPI wrote about fertilizer consolidation and an effort by Majority Leader John Thune to introduce mandatory price reporting for fertilizer, similar to the process for meat and dairy. However, the efforts to address concentration and market transparency continue. More re...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.1/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: War Worries Continue to Drive the Narrative
War-related higher energies are a mixed story for ags. They could stymie economic growth and thus demand, but they open the door for better biofuel sales. Ags were mostly in the green today, betting on the biofuel market. Reports Export Sales: Last week’s new commitments by foreign...
Why Beef and Pork Prices May Fall Despite Strong Demand
Beef prices dropped sharply this week, with the Choice cutout down about $11/cwt in the past six trading days. The move unnerved live cattle futures on Wednesday (though the market recovered Thursday) and quickly led to concerns about beef demand weakening. After all, isn’t this supposed...
Livestock Roundup: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.3 million head, up slightly from March 2025 but down 1.5 percent from 1 December. The report was in line with the previous five-year average of a decrease of 1.8 percent from December to...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9775/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7175/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $319.8/short ton, down $2.6...
Market Commentary: Demand Builds, Markets Await Confirmation
Key Market Developments Macro: Playing or Trading “Truth or Dare” We’ve entered the “truth or dare” phase of this market — where conviction takes a backseat and headlines drive direction. At any given moment, the narrative shifts: progress in negotiations on...
Early 2026 Projections of Cow-Calf Finances
Cow-calf margins hit all-time record highs in 2025 as the industry benefited from the downstream impacts of record-breaking beef demand and the smallest beef cattle herd in decades. As WPI readers will know well, the resulting supply crunch boosted cattle prices across the production landscape...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.55/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, down $4.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Diminishing Energy Impacts on CBOT Trade
Tuesday’s energy markets took back about half of Monday’s losses as tensions in the Arab Gulf flared again, despite recent announcements of diplomatic talks and a five-day cooling-down period from the U.S. Overnight, Iran and Israel launched new rounds of attacks on each other, and...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved further, with estimated net returns increasing to $126/head from $48/head the prior week. The gains were driven by another firming in the choice beef cutout, which rose to $392.85/cwt, while fed cattle prices were largely stable. The resulting expansion in the sprea...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $326.6/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Oil and Iran Conflict Still in Drivers’ Seat, but This Time Creating Pressure
Volatility has been no stranger to the CBOT these past three weeks, and the one consistency during this time has been the dramatic coupling of ag markets’ fortunes to the foibles of crude oil. That was again true on Monday, but this time crude oil offered a bearish – rather than sup...
U.S. Cattle on Feed - March 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.549 million head on March 1, 2026 – similar to the year-ago total on March 1, 2025 of 11.577 head. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.61 million head - 4 percent above 2025. Mark...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the ninth straight week. Funds added 32,000 contracts (3.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a much smaller effort than the prior week’s 244,000-contract bu...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $328/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.5 million head, just slightly below last year. Marketings were 1.52 million head, at 93 percent of last year, in line with the pre...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for March will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.5 million head. The pre-report estimates were spl...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.7/short ton, down $0.5 from ye...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
Greeley JBS Beef Plant on Strike
The JBS beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, went on strike yesterday. Today is day two of the labor shutdown. The Greeley plant can process about 6,000 head per day, or 5 percent of the U.S. beef supply. This is a major disruption. Notably, it comes on the heels of Tyson closing its plant in Lexin...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins turned positive for the first time since late last year as returns improved to $53/head last week. The turnaround was driven by a strong increase in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $388.16/cwt, while fed cattle prices declined further on the week. The threat of the labo...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2525/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.7/short ton, up $2.5 f...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.2/short ton, up $4.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
Livestock Round Up: CPI Overview
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) yesterday. During February, the CPI for all items increased by 0.3 percent and was up 2.4 percent year over year. The categories of shelter, food, and energy were the major contributors to February inflation...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.5/short ton, up $1 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9375/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.67/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $334.4/short ton, up $4.7 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Discount Risk as Grains Quietly Hold Ground
Key Market Developments Macros & Energy: Outside markets continue to trade in a tug-of-war between escalation and de-escalation — and crude oil is right at the center of it. Overnight, crude pulled back toward $87 as headlines pointed to a potential resumption of peace negotiat...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.43/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.58/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $329.7/short ton, down $2.2 fro...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Falling Conditions; Cattle Surge to New Records
The CBOT received several pieces of key fundamental information on Tuesday, including updated production figures from CONAB, the results of the USDA’s Monday Crop Progress report, and fresh export sales of corn to Mexico. The result was that wheat popped higher on growing concerns for yie...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week to -$85/head, down from -$17/head the prior week, as continued strength in fed cattle prices again outpaced weakening boxed beef values. The Choice cutout declined $5.14/cwt to $386.41/cwt, while fed cattle prices rose $3.78/cwt to $388.36/cwt,...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4025/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8225/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6225/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Political Tail Still Wagging the Market Dog
Politics are once again the tail wagging the dog in commodity markets. U.S. negotiations with Iran fell apart (again) over the weekend after Iran refused to agree to a permanent end of its nuclear weapons program. Rather than a return to the recent status quo, however, markets are adjusting to...
JBS Strike Settled, Beef Sector Still Under Inflationary Pressure
JBS USA announced on Sunday that it has reached a new collective bargaining agreement with UFCW Local 7, allowing the Greeley beef production facility to return to normal operations. The plant had been on strike since 16 March, with approximately 3,800 workers affected. The plant has the capaci...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds paring back their net long position across the major ag futures contracts, ending a ten-week streak of net buying. Funds sold 62,000 contracts (6.4 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week with selling in corn, soybeans, and CBOT wheat respon...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.41/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.71/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7575/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $331.8/short ton, up $14.2 from...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Factors Equals Mixed Day
There are so many conflicting narratives between war and peace, rain and drought, hopes and fears, that it was a mixed day of trading on Friday, and a mixed outcome for the week. For today, corn suffered its sixth lower day in the past seven trading sessions. There was high volume in soyb...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.745/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $317.6/short ton, up $3.5...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals Replace War Trading
Geopolitics has proven that it beats weather as a volatility driver, but agricultural markets and financials returned to fundamentals today. The truce/non-truce/truce had its influences, with the soy sector following oil higher, but wheat traded down on stocks reports while corn buyers’ e...
Livestock Round Up: Red Meat Production Down, Broilers Up
USDA released the April WASDE today with new 2026 meat production forecasts, changed from the March release. Beef is now projected at 25.79 billion pounds, down 20 million from March, mostly on lower first-half steer and heifer slaughter. Higher cow slaughter will partially offset the reduced...
Market Commentary: Energies Collapse on Ceasefire News but Grains Reclaim Early Losses
Once again, Trump, Iran, and the Middle East were the hub around which the CBOT trade revolved on Wednesday. Late Tuesday, the U.S. agreed to a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, just days after President Trump threatened to escalate attacks against the Middle Eastern country. In the annou...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8025/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.62/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.1/short ton, up $2.3...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5825/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, down $4.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Risk is Priced In — But Not Yet Believed
Key Market Developments Macro/Geopolitics: Markets are staring down a deadline tonight as President Donald Trump pushes Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 PM Eastern. So far, Iran has rejected the U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal — reportedly delivered through Pakistan &mdash...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins reversed sharply to -$17/head from $120/head the prior week, as rising fed cattle prices more than offset a modest decline in the Choice cutout. Fed cattle prices increased $12.92/cwt from the prior week while the cutout slipped $3.24/cwt, compressing gross margins and pushi...
Market Commentary: The Long-Run Draws Near
The CBOT markets were surprisingly insulated from a jump in crude oil that started the week. Crude oil futures rallied to $115/brl - their highest levels since the earliest days of the U.S.-Iran war - on rhetoric from the White House that signaled an escalation in the conflict. While the oil he...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6675/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1.4 fro...
Market Commentary: War and Easter Exit Strategy
There were a lot of moving parts on the last trading day of the holiday-shortened week, but liquidation and profit-taking may have been the strongest. A prolonged war and higher energy prices will impact consumption and inflation, while supporting biofuels. Storm systems may reduce some of the...
Poultry Production Rebounds on Heavier Weights
Through the week ending 21 March, U.S. broiler production remains well above year-ago levels, with total headcount surpassing 2.04 billion, a 3.63 percent increase compared to 2025. While overall supply levels continue to expand, the distribution across weight classes further highlights a prono...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.2/short ton, down $3 fr...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.975/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.685/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $318.2/short ton, up $1.8...
Market Commentary: Plenty of Information — No Clear Direction
Key Market Developments Macro: Tension Without Direction Markets are trading the tension between escalation and resolution — and neither side has control. Both equities and commodities tested key technical levels this week before reversing sharply on headlines suggesting — at least...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1625/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.71/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $316.4/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on USDA Data, Hopes for End to Middle East Conflict
Except for lean hog futures, the CBOT and CME markets were higher on Tuesday in a combination of bullish factors. The day’s strength started after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he is willing to end hostilities in the Middle East even if the Strait of Hor...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins eased slightly to $119/head, declining $7/head week over week as a modest softening in the cutout combined with a small increase in live cattle prices compressed margins. Despite the weekly pullback, margins remain sharply improved on a monthly basis (+$233/head), supported...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.07/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5975/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.9/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: CBOT Cautious Ahead of Acreage, Stocks Reports
The CBOT took a bit of a breather on Monday as traders waited for the upcoming Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, which the USDA will issue Tuesday at midday. Traders were reluctant to expand risk too much ahead of these two reports, which often change market direction and tone for...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the tenth straight week. Funds added 67,000 contracts (7.7 percent) to their all-ags net long position – nearly doubling the prior week’s purchases - with buying in corn and so...
Market Commentary: Expected Biofuel Announcement Cannot Dislodge War Worries
Thursday marked the worst day for stocks in weeks despite word on the street to “buy,” since valuations have once again become attractive. But apparently not yet. History suggests a rebound with President Trump politically compelled to dream up some form of policy stimulus on top of...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5925/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, down $6.8 from ye...
Grassley and Smith Introduce Meat Industry Consolidation Bill
Previously, on 24 March, WPI wrote about fertilizer consolidation and an effort by Majority Leader John Thune to introduce mandatory price reporting for fertilizer, similar to the process for meat and dairy. However, the efforts to address concentration and market transparency continue. More re...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.1/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: War Worries Continue to Drive the Narrative
War-related higher energies are a mixed story for ags. They could stymie economic growth and thus demand, but they open the door for better biofuel sales. Ags were mostly in the green today, betting on the biofuel market. Reports Export Sales: Last week’s new commitments by foreign...
Why Beef and Pork Prices May Fall Despite Strong Demand
Beef prices dropped sharply this week, with the Choice cutout down about $11/cwt in the past six trading days. The move unnerved live cattle futures on Wednesday (though the market recovered Thursday) and quickly led to concerns about beef demand weakening. After all, isn’t this supposed...
Livestock Roundup: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.3 million head, up slightly from March 2025 but down 1.5 percent from 1 December. The report was in line with the previous five-year average of a decrease of 1.8 percent from December to...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9775/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7175/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $319.8/short ton, down $2.6...
Market Commentary: Demand Builds, Markets Await Confirmation
Key Market Developments Macro: Playing or Trading “Truth or Dare” We’ve entered the “truth or dare” phase of this market — where conviction takes a backseat and headlines drive direction. At any given moment, the narrative shifts: progress in negotiations on...
Early 2026 Projections of Cow-Calf Finances
Cow-calf margins hit all-time record highs in 2025 as the industry benefited from the downstream impacts of record-breaking beef demand and the smallest beef cattle herd in decades. As WPI readers will know well, the resulting supply crunch boosted cattle prices across the production landscape...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.55/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, down $4.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Diminishing Energy Impacts on CBOT Trade
Tuesday’s energy markets took back about half of Monday’s losses as tensions in the Arab Gulf flared again, despite recent announcements of diplomatic talks and a five-day cooling-down period from the U.S. Overnight, Iran and Israel launched new rounds of attacks on each other, and...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved further, with estimated net returns increasing to $126/head from $48/head the prior week. The gains were driven by another firming in the choice beef cutout, which rose to $392.85/cwt, while fed cattle prices were largely stable. The resulting expansion in the sprea...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $326.6/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Oil and Iran Conflict Still in Drivers’ Seat, but This Time Creating Pressure
Volatility has been no stranger to the CBOT these past three weeks, and the one consistency during this time has been the dramatic coupling of ag markets’ fortunes to the foibles of crude oil. That was again true on Monday, but this time crude oil offered a bearish – rather than sup...
U.S. Cattle on Feed - March 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.549 million head on March 1, 2026 – similar to the year-ago total on March 1, 2025 of 11.577 head. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.61 million head - 4 percent above 2025. Mark...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the ninth straight week. Funds added 32,000 contracts (3.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a much smaller effort than the prior week’s 244,000-contract bu...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $328/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.5 million head, just slightly below last year. Marketings were 1.52 million head, at 93 percent of last year, in line with the pre...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for March will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.5 million head. The pre-report estimates were spl...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.7/short ton, down $0.5 from ye...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
Greeley JBS Beef Plant on Strike
The JBS beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, went on strike yesterday. Today is day two of the labor shutdown. The Greeley plant can process about 6,000 head per day, or 5 percent of the U.S. beef supply. This is a major disruption. Notably, it comes on the heels of Tyson closing its plant in Lexin...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins turned positive for the first time since late last year as returns improved to $53/head last week. The turnaround was driven by a strong increase in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $388.16/cwt, while fed cattle prices declined further on the week. The threat of the labo...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2525/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.7/short ton, up $2.5 f...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.2/short ton, up $4.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
Livestock Round Up: CPI Overview
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) yesterday. During February, the CPI for all items increased by 0.3 percent and was up 2.4 percent year over year. The categories of shelter, food, and energy were the major contributors to February inflation...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.5/short ton, up $1 fro...