Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.95/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, up $2.4...
Market Commentary: Cattle Markets Remain Under Pressure, China Buys More Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Iran warned that it will retaliate against the U.S. if American strikes target Iranian infrastructure, as President Trump has threatened to do next week if negotiations between the two nations do not resume. President Trump is scheduled to deliver a primetime addre...
Livestock Round Up: Turkey Production Poised to Rebound Some
Turkeys for Thanksgiving are typically placed this month. Turkey production has suffered from HPAI and other diseases for the past two years, and placements are still down overall. However, at more than 34 pounds per bird, overall production is being supported by heavier weights and increased p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: The Bulls Are Back in Town?
After spending much of the year searching for a reason to stay, the bulls suddenly have several. Grain markets have strengthened, wheat is leading the charge, outside markets are becoming more supportive, and geopolitical and weather risks are once again demanding attention. Does that mean the...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Conditions Data; Wheat Reverses the Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: Attacks between the U.S. and Iran intensified overnight and the U.S. Central Command reported that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran will begin at 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday. President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all shipping traffic, except Iran. In an...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$172/head last week, up $31 from the prior week as sharply lower fed cattle prices more than offset a seasonal decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout fell to $382/cwt while fed cattle prices dropped to $248/cwt, allowing packers to recover some of the margin c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.45/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Aquaculture: A Protein Production Growth Opportunity
Key Takeaways: Aquaculture is becoming increasingly important in meeting global seafood demand, gaining market share as wild-caught fisheries face production limitations. Superior feed conversion efficiency gives aquaculture a competitive advantage over traditional livestock production, with l...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally continues to shift fund positioning and sentiment from its former bearish posture to a far more bullish configuration. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 98 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Market Commentary: Reassessing Weather and Geopolitical Risks
What You Need to Know Today: Rising hostilities and an end to any semblance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran created geopolitical risk-off trade in macroeconomic markets, though the CBOT seemed immune. President Trump announced the U.S. military would resume its naval blockade on Iran...
Livestock WASDE
USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates on Friday, forecasting tighter beef supplies and growing pork and broiler supplies. Beef production was lowered due to a slower fed cattle harvest, which was offset somewhat by cow slaughter. Fed cattle slaughter was forecast to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315/short ton, down $3.7 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4025/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9075/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $3.3 from y...
Market Commentary: Bullish WASDE and Sea of Azov Strikes Lift Grains
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat prices surged after Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels and infrastructure disrupted grain shipments, halting traffic through the Sea of Azov, Kerch Strait, and Black Sea. The July WASDE report offered a modestly supportive outlook for corn, wheat, and soybe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.52/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.1975/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.815/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $4.2 fr...
Market Commentary: The Market Is Always Looking Ahead
Weather remains the dominant driver of grain markets this time of year, but this week's trade has been a reminder that futures markets are constantly looking ahead. Corn and soybean prices don't simply react to today's weather — they respond to where traders believe production risks will...
Livestock Round Up: UFCW Wants Big 4 to Get USDA Money
As we wrote in last week’s Livestock Round Up, the Administration has announced the Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers (SPUR) program that will provide up to $500 million in payments for small- and medium-sized processors to buy cattle. The Big 4 packers are ineligible, which has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.0775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risk Back in Play
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump claimed the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was over, as both sides accused one another of violating the terms of the agreement. Commercial vessels are increasingly steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz as security risks escalate following Iran...
Can Lean Beef Futures Succeed Where Others Have Failed?
Key Takeaways: The CME Group is launching new 90 percent Lean Beef and 50 percent Lean Beef futures and options contracts in July. There are five key factors that must be present in physical markets and futures contract specifications for futures contracts to become successful. The two l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.185/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9775/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.5/short ton, up $3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Amid Weather Market; U.S. Revokes Iran’s Oil Licenses
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Choice Boxed Beef Price Falls to Yearly Low
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.445 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, up $9.1 from...
Market Commentary: Weather Risk Materializes
What You Need to Know Today: This time of year, grain markets are often just one weather forecast away from a sharp rally, and today's hotter, drier outlook provided the catalyst for significant gains in corn and soybean futures. Livestock markets were relatively quiet by comparison, with most...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Trading Cools Off After an Eventful Report Week
What You Need to Know Today: The June jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k jobs, less than the 115k jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The labor force participation rate dropped by 0.3 percent to 61.5 percent, the lowest since March 2021, and the lowest in 50 ye...
Livestock Round Up: Trump Declines USMCA Renewal and Pledges $500 Million to Beef Processors
Today was the deadline for announcing intentions regarding renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA); the U.S. will not renew the USMCA, according to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. President Trump will instead pursue separate bilateral trade deals with Canada and Mexico las...
U.S. Exports to Cuba: It’s About Displacement
As Cuba's economic crisis has deepened, discussions about the country's eventual economic and political transition have reemerged. One question that inevitably follows is what opportunities might emerge for U.S. agricultural exports. So, here’s a brief review of those opportunities, but n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4925/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: New Month, New Trade?
Key Market Insights July is here, and the grain markets already feel like they are shifting gears. With the June USDA reports now behind us, inflation is back in the conversation, and traders are once again turning their attention to three familiar summer drivers: demand, money flow, and weathe...
Poultry’s Cost Effectiveness and Versatility Fueling Consumption Growth
Key Takeaways: Poultry is the fastest-growing major animal protein, supported by lower production costs, affordability, and broad consumer appeal. Broilers are the most feed-efficient major livestock species, giving chicken a lasting cost advantage over beef and pork. Short production cycles a...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
Summary of Futures
Sep 26 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $0 from...
Market Commentary: Acreage, Stocks Surprises Send Corn, Wheat Higher; Fund Selling Likely to Subside
What You Need to Know Today: The surprises from the USDA’s Acreage report were a sharp reduction in winter wheat area from the March Prospective Plantings estimates and a larger-than-expected increase in corn area. The Grain Stocks report offered relatively few surprises, but quarterly d...
High Oleic Soybeans: Premium Demand Growing, But Adoption Remains Limited
Key Takeaways: High oleic soybeans produce oil containing 70–80 percent oleic acid, improving stability and eliminating the need for partial hydrogenation, which eliminates trans fats. There are three primary varieties of high oleic soybeans available commercially: Plenish, Vistive Gold,...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$261/head last week, down $19 from the prior week as weaker beef values (especially the Choice cutout) were offset by firmer fed cattle prices, which further compressed packer profits. The cutout slipped to $387/cwt while fed cattle prices held above $259/cw...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.39/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $2.3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Downside Risks Rise as Funds Pad Bearish Bets, Corn Hits New Lows
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to pause hostilities to allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz this week (theoretically, at least). There were some rumors of a possible Chinese blockade against Taiwan. Analysts are looking for the largest U.S. 1 June cor...
Senate Farm Bill, Prop 12, and NWS Update
Proposition 12: The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has advocated for a fix to Proposition 12, the California animal welfare law, in the Senate farm bill. The House version of the farm bill included a fix, but the Senate bill, based on the discussion draft released by Chairman John Boozm...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate CBOT trade, which last week resulted in the ag markets seeing another period consecutive net liquidation. Managed money traders liquidated another 84,000 contracts (42 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the largest net l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5625/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $307/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Acreage Report Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices dropped sharply with traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. There were reports that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman, which would be a violation of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Pr...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.015/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $4.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: Focus Turns to New Crop Export Sales
What You Need to Know Today: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Bayer secured a favorable Suprem...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 1 June today. There were 73.7 million head, which was down slightly from 1 June 2025, as well as from 1 March 2026. The hog herd sits at the same level it was on 1 September 2025 and is the lowest for June since 2023. From 2016, after the re...
Mid-Year Cow-Calf Profitability Projections
Key Takeaways: Despite rising cost pressures — including the recent run-up in fuel and energy costs — U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026. Cost pressures — particularly non-feed variable costs — and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.35/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.7 fro...
Market Commentary: The Battle for Support
Key Market Insights Outside markets dominated today’s session. Crude oil traded below $70 per barrel, the U.S. dollar climbed to a 13-month high, and both gold and silver posted sharp declines as traders increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, t...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.0975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.97/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4175/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.9/short ton, up $3.1...
Market Commentary: Searching for Something New
What You Need to Know Today: There is a global rotation out of tech stocks right now amid profit-taking and expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. The White House said Iran will use its upcoming unsanctioned oil revenue to buy U.S. agricultural products, a claim that Iran later s...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday. Below are analysts’ estimates for the report. The biggest change since the 1 March report is the number of market hogs, which is expected to be up 1.1 percent from what was implied in March. The percent increase in hogs we...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$243/head last week, down $25 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices more than offset a slight decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout eased to $390/cwt while fed cattle prices climbed to $260/cwt - just of all-time highs - extending the seasonal s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continue to hold broadly bearish sentiments resulted in the ag markets as last week marked another in a string of consecutive net liquidation periods. Managed money traders liquidated another 105,000 contracts (35 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.415/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, down $1.5...
Market Commentary: Mixed Macro Signals Keeping Grains Rangebound
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days after “productive talks” with Iran in Switzerland over the weekend. Chevron and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement to develop Project Kilby, a...
Cattle on Feed for June 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed increased two percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.7 million on June 1, 2026. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.70 million head, 10 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 1.55 million head, 12 perc...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4275/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary: Selling Across Most Commodities After Hawkish Fed
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1275/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.32/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0 from yest...
Market Commentary: Markets on Pins & Needles
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Market Commentary: China Buying Rumors Lift Soybeans; Cattle Rise on Beef Demand Hopes
What You Need to Know Today: American and Mexican officials met Tuesday and will meet again Wednesday for another round of trade talks, where ag and energy will be a key topic. Another round is scheduled for 20 July. Ag groups are urging President Trump to renew USMCA for another 16 years, but...
New World Screwworm Spreading North
Since the first U.S. case of New World Screwworm (NWS) was confirmed on 3 June, USDA has confirmed 12 cases. The latest was confirmed in a sheep on 12 June, with four additional cases confirmed in Texas on 11 June, three in cattle and one in a goat. The New Mexico case confirmed that the infect...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$218/head last week, down $20 from the prior week as a softer Choice cutout combined with slightly lower fed cattle prices. The cutout slipped to $391/cwt while fed cattle prices eased to $256/cwt, leaving packer profits under pressure. Margins remain deeply...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, up $0.7 from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.95/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, up $2.4...
Market Commentary: Cattle Markets Remain Under Pressure, China Buys More Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Iran warned that it will retaliate against the U.S. if American strikes target Iranian infrastructure, as President Trump has threatened to do next week if negotiations between the two nations do not resume. President Trump is scheduled to deliver a primetime addre...
Livestock Round Up: Turkey Production Poised to Rebound Some
Turkeys for Thanksgiving are typically placed this month. Turkey production has suffered from HPAI and other diseases for the past two years, and placements are still down overall. However, at more than 34 pounds per bird, overall production is being supported by heavier weights and increased p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: The Bulls Are Back in Town?
After spending much of the year searching for a reason to stay, the bulls suddenly have several. Grain markets have strengthened, wheat is leading the charge, outside markets are becoming more supportive, and geopolitical and weather risks are once again demanding attention. Does that mean the...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Conditions Data; Wheat Reverses the Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: Attacks between the U.S. and Iran intensified overnight and the U.S. Central Command reported that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran will begin at 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday. President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all shipping traffic, except Iran. In an...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$172/head last week, up $31 from the prior week as sharply lower fed cattle prices more than offset a seasonal decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout fell to $382/cwt while fed cattle prices dropped to $248/cwt, allowing packers to recover some of the margin c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.45/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Aquaculture: A Protein Production Growth Opportunity
Key Takeaways: Aquaculture is becoming increasingly important in meeting global seafood demand, gaining market share as wild-caught fisheries face production limitations. Superior feed conversion efficiency gives aquaculture a competitive advantage over traditional livestock production, with l...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally continues to shift fund positioning and sentiment from its former bearish posture to a far more bullish configuration. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 98 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Market Commentary: Reassessing Weather and Geopolitical Risks
What You Need to Know Today: Rising hostilities and an end to any semblance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran created geopolitical risk-off trade in macroeconomic markets, though the CBOT seemed immune. President Trump announced the U.S. military would resume its naval blockade on Iran...
Livestock WASDE
USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates on Friday, forecasting tighter beef supplies and growing pork and broiler supplies. Beef production was lowered due to a slower fed cattle harvest, which was offset somewhat by cow slaughter. Fed cattle slaughter was forecast to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315/short ton, down $3.7 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4025/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9075/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $3.3 from y...
Market Commentary: Bullish WASDE and Sea of Azov Strikes Lift Grains
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat prices surged after Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels and infrastructure disrupted grain shipments, halting traffic through the Sea of Azov, Kerch Strait, and Black Sea. The July WASDE report offered a modestly supportive outlook for corn, wheat, and soybe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.52/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.1975/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.815/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $4.2 fr...
Market Commentary: The Market Is Always Looking Ahead
Weather remains the dominant driver of grain markets this time of year, but this week's trade has been a reminder that futures markets are constantly looking ahead. Corn and soybean prices don't simply react to today's weather — they respond to where traders believe production risks will...
Livestock Round Up: UFCW Wants Big 4 to Get USDA Money
As we wrote in last week’s Livestock Round Up, the Administration has announced the Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers (SPUR) program that will provide up to $500 million in payments for small- and medium-sized processors to buy cattle. The Big 4 packers are ineligible, which has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.0775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risk Back in Play
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump claimed the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was over, as both sides accused one another of violating the terms of the agreement. Commercial vessels are increasingly steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz as security risks escalate following Iran...
Can Lean Beef Futures Succeed Where Others Have Failed?
Key Takeaways: The CME Group is launching new 90 percent Lean Beef and 50 percent Lean Beef futures and options contracts in July. There are five key factors that must be present in physical markets and futures contract specifications for futures contracts to become successful. The two l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.185/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9775/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.5/short ton, up $3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Amid Weather Market; U.S. Revokes Iran’s Oil Licenses
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Choice Boxed Beef Price Falls to Yearly Low
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.445 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, up $9.1 from...
Market Commentary: Weather Risk Materializes
What You Need to Know Today: This time of year, grain markets are often just one weather forecast away from a sharp rally, and today's hotter, drier outlook provided the catalyst for significant gains in corn and soybean futures. Livestock markets were relatively quiet by comparison, with most...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Trading Cools Off After an Eventful Report Week
What You Need to Know Today: The June jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k jobs, less than the 115k jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The labor force participation rate dropped by 0.3 percent to 61.5 percent, the lowest since March 2021, and the lowest in 50 ye...
Livestock Round Up: Trump Declines USMCA Renewal and Pledges $500 Million to Beef Processors
Today was the deadline for announcing intentions regarding renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA); the U.S. will not renew the USMCA, according to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. President Trump will instead pursue separate bilateral trade deals with Canada and Mexico las...
U.S. Exports to Cuba: It’s About Displacement
As Cuba's economic crisis has deepened, discussions about the country's eventual economic and political transition have reemerged. One question that inevitably follows is what opportunities might emerge for U.S. agricultural exports. So, here’s a brief review of those opportunities, but n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4925/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: New Month, New Trade?
Key Market Insights July is here, and the grain markets already feel like they are shifting gears. With the June USDA reports now behind us, inflation is back in the conversation, and traders are once again turning their attention to three familiar summer drivers: demand, money flow, and weathe...
Poultry’s Cost Effectiveness and Versatility Fueling Consumption Growth
Key Takeaways: Poultry is the fastest-growing major animal protein, supported by lower production costs, affordability, and broad consumer appeal. Broilers are the most feed-efficient major livestock species, giving chicken a lasting cost advantage over beef and pork. Short production cycles a...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
Summary of Futures
Sep 26 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $0 from...
Market Commentary: Acreage, Stocks Surprises Send Corn, Wheat Higher; Fund Selling Likely to Subside
What You Need to Know Today: The surprises from the USDA’s Acreage report were a sharp reduction in winter wheat area from the March Prospective Plantings estimates and a larger-than-expected increase in corn area. The Grain Stocks report offered relatively few surprises, but quarterly d...
High Oleic Soybeans: Premium Demand Growing, But Adoption Remains Limited
Key Takeaways: High oleic soybeans produce oil containing 70–80 percent oleic acid, improving stability and eliminating the need for partial hydrogenation, which eliminates trans fats. There are three primary varieties of high oleic soybeans available commercially: Plenish, Vistive Gold,...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$261/head last week, down $19 from the prior week as weaker beef values (especially the Choice cutout) were offset by firmer fed cattle prices, which further compressed packer profits. The cutout slipped to $387/cwt while fed cattle prices held above $259/cw...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.39/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $2.3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Downside Risks Rise as Funds Pad Bearish Bets, Corn Hits New Lows
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to pause hostilities to allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz this week (theoretically, at least). There were some rumors of a possible Chinese blockade against Taiwan. Analysts are looking for the largest U.S. 1 June cor...
Senate Farm Bill, Prop 12, and NWS Update
Proposition 12: The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has advocated for a fix to Proposition 12, the California animal welfare law, in the Senate farm bill. The House version of the farm bill included a fix, but the Senate bill, based on the discussion draft released by Chairman John Boozm...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate CBOT trade, which last week resulted in the ag markets seeing another period consecutive net liquidation. Managed money traders liquidated another 84,000 contracts (42 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the largest net l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5625/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $307/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Acreage Report Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices dropped sharply with traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. There were reports that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman, which would be a violation of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Pr...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.015/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $4.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: Focus Turns to New Crop Export Sales
What You Need to Know Today: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Bayer secured a favorable Suprem...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 1 June today. There were 73.7 million head, which was down slightly from 1 June 2025, as well as from 1 March 2026. The hog herd sits at the same level it was on 1 September 2025 and is the lowest for June since 2023. From 2016, after the re...
Mid-Year Cow-Calf Profitability Projections
Key Takeaways: Despite rising cost pressures — including the recent run-up in fuel and energy costs — U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026. Cost pressures — particularly non-feed variable costs — and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.35/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.7 fro...
Market Commentary: The Battle for Support
Key Market Insights Outside markets dominated today’s session. Crude oil traded below $70 per barrel, the U.S. dollar climbed to a 13-month high, and both gold and silver posted sharp declines as traders increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, t...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.0975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.97/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4175/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.9/short ton, up $3.1...
Market Commentary: Searching for Something New
What You Need to Know Today: There is a global rotation out of tech stocks right now amid profit-taking and expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. The White House said Iran will use its upcoming unsanctioned oil revenue to buy U.S. agricultural products, a claim that Iran later s...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday. Below are analysts’ estimates for the report. The biggest change since the 1 March report is the number of market hogs, which is expected to be up 1.1 percent from what was implied in March. The percent increase in hogs we...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$243/head last week, down $25 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices more than offset a slight decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout eased to $390/cwt while fed cattle prices climbed to $260/cwt - just of all-time highs - extending the seasonal s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continue to hold broadly bearish sentiments resulted in the ag markets as last week marked another in a string of consecutive net liquidation periods. Managed money traders liquidated another 105,000 contracts (35 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.415/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, down $1.5...
Market Commentary: Mixed Macro Signals Keeping Grains Rangebound
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days after “productive talks” with Iran in Switzerland over the weekend. Chevron and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement to develop Project Kilby, a...
Cattle on Feed for June 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed increased two percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.7 million on June 1, 2026. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.70 million head, 10 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 1.55 million head, 12 perc...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4275/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary: Selling Across Most Commodities After Hawkish Fed
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1275/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.32/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0 from yest...
Market Commentary: Markets on Pins & Needles
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Market Commentary: China Buying Rumors Lift Soybeans; Cattle Rise on Beef Demand Hopes
What You Need to Know Today: American and Mexican officials met Tuesday and will meet again Wednesday for another round of trade talks, where ag and energy will be a key topic. Another round is scheduled for 20 July. Ag groups are urging President Trump to renew USMCA for another 16 years, but...
New World Screwworm Spreading North
Since the first U.S. case of New World Screwworm (NWS) was confirmed on 3 June, USDA has confirmed 12 cases. The latest was confirmed in a sheep on 12 June, with four additional cases confirmed in Texas on 11 June, three in cattle and one in a goat. The New Mexico case confirmed that the infect...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$218/head last week, down $20 from the prior week as a softer Choice cutout combined with slightly lower fed cattle prices. The cutout slipped to $391/cwt while fed cattle prices eased to $256/cwt, leaving packer profits under pressure. Margins remain deeply...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, up $0.7 from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...