Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.55/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, down $4.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Diminishing Energy Impacts on CBOT Trade
Tuesday’s energy markets took back about half of Monday’s losses as tensions in the Arab Gulf flared again, despite recent announcements of diplomatic talks and a five-day cooling-down period from the U.S. Overnight, Iran and Israel launched new rounds of attacks on each other, and...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt has seen a sharp rise in wheat prices due to increased shipping costs and the 9 percent drop in the value of Egypt’s currency. Wheat prices in Egypt are said to be up by as much as $24/MT. Both ocean freight costs and...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $326.6/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Oil and Iran Conflict Still in Drivers’ Seat, but This Time Creating Pressure
Volatility has been no stranger to the CBOT these past three weeks, and the one consistency during this time has been the dramatic coupling of ag markets’ fortunes to the foibles of crude oil. That was again true on Monday, but this time crude oil offered a bearish – rather than sup...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest continues to move forward and has now reached 13 percent of planted area, with fieldwork still concentrated in the North Core. Progress there remains steady, and yields are averaging 9.82 MT/ha. Harvest is also beginning to pick up in the South Core, where ea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the ninth straight week. Funds added 32,000 contracts (3.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a much smaller effort than the prior week’s 244,000-contract bu...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $328/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6975/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.08/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.685/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, up $10.8 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 6-12, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 189,900 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 58 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 383,100 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
45Z: The Next Big Thing or the Next Big Mess?
The U.S. Treasury Department is (still!) working on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. The broad legislative effort for the act was launched in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and picked up with some significant adjustments in President Trump’s One Big...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 March 2026 Russia’s grain market turned firmer in the second week of March, led by stronger price action in Asian Russia, where domestic values continue adjusting higher toward neighboring Kazakh levels. By contrast, European Russia and the Black Sea rema...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.7/short ton, down $0.5 from ye...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The Muslim month of Ramadan is expected to end around 19 March with the beginning of the Eid-al-Fitr holiday — the Eid holiday lasts up to five days depending on the country. Businesses, banks, and government offices will be...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week-on-week advance of 3.6 percentage points, the corn harvest reached 7.2 percent of the national area, with fieldwork concentrated mainly in Núcleo Norte and the east-central area of Entre Ríos, where yields are averaging 9.57 MT/ha and 6.52 MT/ha, respectively. Ea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2525/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.7/short ton, up $2.5 f...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 27-March 5, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 455,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 432,000 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week, but dow...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.2/short ton, up $4.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
Oilseed Highlights – Cargill vs. China; Biodiesel Margins Surge
Cargill Suspends Soybean Exports to China Cargill has stopped buying soybeans from Brazilian farmers following new regulatory and sanitary/phytosanitary requirements in the country. The Brazilian government’s recent adoption of stricter sanitary evaluations of soybeans destined for China...
WASDE Soybeans - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans had increased imports and crush, but ending stocks remained unchanged from last month. The average annual soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is increased by $5 per short ton to $300. The soybean...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 March 2026 During the week of 02–06 March, the Russian grains market stabilized and showed early signs of recovery across most grains, while pulses remained weak. The developing bullish tone reflects geopolitical developments and movements in global commod...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.5/short ton, up $1 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Middle Eastern countries have imported an average of close to 29 million MT of grains and feed products per year over the past five years according to an Ag Perspectives report. These include wheat, corn, barley, soybeans, soymeal...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.0325/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The corn harvest is beginning to gain momentum in Argentina. So far, 7 percent of the area has been harvested, with the core corn region already reaching 10 percent. Yields remain heterogeneous. Some areas are performing well above average, while others are showing the impact of late-seaso...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the seventh straight week. Funds added 125,000 contracts (27 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with buying in soybeans and corn primarily responsible for the move. ...
Market Commentary: War, Crude Oil Still Dominate
The geopolitics of war in Iran are said to now be eclipsing any market focus on next week’s USDA March WASDE report. Volumes were modest in today’s trading, but the message was nonetheless clear – shipping grain and inputs is getting complicated. Notably, the ratio of De...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1675/bushel, up $0.33 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0075/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, up $7.9 from ye...
Middle East Grain Trade Trends
Somewhat lost in the current discussion over the impacts of the conflict in Iran and the Persian Gulf is the impact on grain trade. The region is not usually at the top of grain market analysts’ thinking when it comes to major demand centers, yet it accounts for significant global grain c...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7925/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.3/short ton, down $0.6 f...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 20-26, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 203,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 348,900 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 24 percent fro...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.695/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.9/short ton, down $...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 February 2026 The Russian grain market turned bearish during the final week of February as global trends and heavy domestic stocks pressured values across most regions. According to updated 2025 crop data from Rosstat, total grain production reached 141.15 mil...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.465/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.705/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.7/short ton, up $1.8 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s flour exports in 2025, at 2.36 MMT, were back up close to 2019 levels but well below the five-year average of close to 3.0 MMT. Exports were low due to drought and Turkey’s export restrictions. Shipments of fl...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The latest crop update from the EU Commission’s MARS crop monitoring division reported “broadly satisfactory” conditions across much of the bloc through February. Persistent frost in parts of northern and eastern Europe is a concern for the winter crops, pa...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.64/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.9/short ton, down...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT As February draws to a close, wheat exports during the first quarter of the marketing year (December–February) are approaching 10 MMT, compared with a five-year average of 5 MMT. Argentina’s ample wheat supply continues to weigh on both global and domestic prices. The country...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the sixth straight week. Funds added 176,000 contracts (60 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with strong and mostly uniform buying across the ag sector. The soy co...
Market Commentary: Green Despite Many Obstacles
There was mostly green on the board for Friday and for the week as a whole. Another contract high was printed by soyoil as higher energies, higher inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions all favored commodities. There are some topical contrasts. For example, the cattle market is t...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.55/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, down $4.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Diminishing Energy Impacts on CBOT Trade
Tuesday’s energy markets took back about half of Monday’s losses as tensions in the Arab Gulf flared again, despite recent announcements of diplomatic talks and a five-day cooling-down period from the U.S. Overnight, Iran and Israel launched new rounds of attacks on each other, and...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt has seen a sharp rise in wheat prices due to increased shipping costs and the 9 percent drop in the value of Egypt’s currency. Wheat prices in Egypt are said to be up by as much as $24/MT. Both ocean freight costs and...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $326.6/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Oil and Iran Conflict Still in Drivers’ Seat, but This Time Creating Pressure
Volatility has been no stranger to the CBOT these past three weeks, and the one consistency during this time has been the dramatic coupling of ag markets’ fortunes to the foibles of crude oil. That was again true on Monday, but this time crude oil offered a bearish – rather than sup...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest continues to move forward and has now reached 13 percent of planted area, with fieldwork still concentrated in the North Core. Progress there remains steady, and yields are averaging 9.82 MT/ha. Harvest is also beginning to pick up in the South Core, where ea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the ninth straight week. Funds added 32,000 contracts (3.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a much smaller effort than the prior week’s 244,000-contract bu...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $328/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6975/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.08/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.685/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, up $10.8 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 6-12, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 189,900 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 58 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 383,100 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
45Z: The Next Big Thing or the Next Big Mess?
The U.S. Treasury Department is (still!) working on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. The broad legislative effort for the act was launched in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and picked up with some significant adjustments in President Trump’s One Big...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 March 2026 Russia’s grain market turned firmer in the second week of March, led by stronger price action in Asian Russia, where domestic values continue adjusting higher toward neighboring Kazakh levels. By contrast, European Russia and the Black Sea rema...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.7/short ton, down $0.5 from ye...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The Muslim month of Ramadan is expected to end around 19 March with the beginning of the Eid-al-Fitr holiday — the Eid holiday lasts up to five days depending on the country. Businesses, banks, and government offices will be...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week-on-week advance of 3.6 percentage points, the corn harvest reached 7.2 percent of the national area, with fieldwork concentrated mainly in Núcleo Norte and the east-central area of Entre Ríos, where yields are averaging 9.57 MT/ha and 6.52 MT/ha, respectively. Ea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2525/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.7/short ton, up $2.5 f...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 27-March 5, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 455,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 432,000 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week, but dow...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.2/short ton, up $4.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
Oilseed Highlights – Cargill vs. China; Biodiesel Margins Surge
Cargill Suspends Soybean Exports to China Cargill has stopped buying soybeans from Brazilian farmers following new regulatory and sanitary/phytosanitary requirements in the country. The Brazilian government’s recent adoption of stricter sanitary evaluations of soybeans destined for China...
WASDE Soybeans - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans had increased imports and crush, but ending stocks remained unchanged from last month. The average annual soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is increased by $5 per short ton to $300. The soybean...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 March 2026 During the week of 02–06 March, the Russian grains market stabilized and showed early signs of recovery across most grains, while pulses remained weak. The developing bullish tone reflects geopolitical developments and movements in global commod...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.5/short ton, up $1 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Middle Eastern countries have imported an average of close to 29 million MT of grains and feed products per year over the past five years according to an Ag Perspectives report. These include wheat, corn, barley, soybeans, soymeal...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.0325/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The corn harvest is beginning to gain momentum in Argentina. So far, 7 percent of the area has been harvested, with the core corn region already reaching 10 percent. Yields remain heterogeneous. Some areas are performing well above average, while others are showing the impact of late-seaso...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the seventh straight week. Funds added 125,000 contracts (27 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with buying in soybeans and corn primarily responsible for the move. ...
Market Commentary: War, Crude Oil Still Dominate
The geopolitics of war in Iran are said to now be eclipsing any market focus on next week’s USDA March WASDE report. Volumes were modest in today’s trading, but the message was nonetheless clear – shipping grain and inputs is getting complicated. Notably, the ratio of De...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1675/bushel, up $0.33 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0075/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, up $7.9 from ye...
Middle East Grain Trade Trends
Somewhat lost in the current discussion over the impacts of the conflict in Iran and the Persian Gulf is the impact on grain trade. The region is not usually at the top of grain market analysts’ thinking when it comes to major demand centers, yet it accounts for significant global grain c...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7925/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.3/short ton, down $0.6 f...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 20-26, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 203,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 348,900 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 24 percent fro...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.695/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.9/short ton, down $...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 February 2026 The Russian grain market turned bearish during the final week of February as global trends and heavy domestic stocks pressured values across most regions. According to updated 2025 crop data from Rosstat, total grain production reached 141.15 mil...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.465/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.705/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.7/short ton, up $1.8 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s flour exports in 2025, at 2.36 MMT, were back up close to 2019 levels but well below the five-year average of close to 3.0 MMT. Exports were low due to drought and Turkey’s export restrictions. Shipments of fl...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The latest crop update from the EU Commission’s MARS crop monitoring division reported “broadly satisfactory” conditions across much of the bloc through February. Persistent frost in parts of northern and eastern Europe is a concern for the winter crops, pa...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.64/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.9/short ton, down...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT As February draws to a close, wheat exports during the first quarter of the marketing year (December–February) are approaching 10 MMT, compared with a five-year average of 5 MMT. Argentina’s ample wheat supply continues to weigh on both global and domestic prices. The country...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the sixth straight week. Funds added 176,000 contracts (60 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with strong and mostly uniform buying across the ag sector. The soy co...
Market Commentary: Green Despite Many Obstacles
There was mostly green on the board for Friday and for the week as a whole. Another contract high was printed by soyoil as higher energies, higher inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions all favored commodities. There are some topical contrasts. For example, the cattle market is t...