Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Trading Cools Off After an Eventful Report Week
What You Need to Know Today: The June jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k jobs, less than the 115k jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The labor force participation rate dropped by 0.3 percent to 61.5 percent, the lowest since March 2021, and the lowest in 50 ye...
U.S. Exports to Cuba: It’s About Displacement
As Cuba's economic crisis has deepened, discussions about the country's eventual economic and political transition have reemerged. One question that inevitably follows is what opportunities might emerge for U.S. agricultural exports. So, here’s a brief review of those opportunities, but n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4925/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: New Month, New Trade?
Key Market Insights July is here, and the grain markets already feel like they are shifting gears. With the June USDA reports now behind us, inflation is back in the conversation, and traders are once again turning their attention to three familiar summer drivers: demand, money flow, and weathe...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 June 2026 The Russian grain market remained volatile during the week as farmers continued to hold old-crop supplies while new-crop availability remained limited. The ruble weakened nearly 5 percent against the U.S. dollar during the week, supporting domestic grain p...
Summary of Futures
Sep 26 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $0 from...
Market Commentary: Acreage, Stocks Surprises Send Corn, Wheat Higher; Fund Selling Likely to Subside
What You Need to Know Today: The surprises from the USDA’s Acreage report were a sharp reduction in winter wheat area from the March Prospective Plantings estimates and a larger-than-expected increase in corn area. The Grain Stocks report offered relatively few surprises, but quarterly d...
High Oleic Soybeans: Premium Demand Growing, But Adoption Remains Limited
Key Takeaways: High oleic soybeans produce oil containing 70–80 percent oleic acid, improving stability and eliminating the need for partial hydrogenation, which eliminates trans fats. There are three primary varieties of high oleic soybeans available commercially: Plenish, Vistive Gold,...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Oman Flour Mills has begun its 2026 purchases of locally produced wheat. The mill runs a government-supported program that it says strengthens the country’s food supply. The program is said to “improve farming practice...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.39/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $2.3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Downside Risks Rise as Funds Pad Bearish Bets, Corn Hits New Lows
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to pause hostilities to allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz this week (theoretically, at least). There were some rumors of a possible Chinese blockade against Taiwan. Analysts are looking for the largest U.S. 1 June cor...
Indonesia’s B50 Mandate Reshapes Global Vegetable Oil Markets
Key Takeaways: Indonesia will raise its biodiesel mandate from B40 to B50 on 1 July, increasing palm oil–based diesel blending to 50 percent. The policy supports domestic palm oil demand and reduces reliance on imported diesel. Indonesia’s biodiesel program has steadily expanded si...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 29 June)
Developer's Note: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where obs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina's corn harvest continued to advance at a moderate-to-slow pace, constrained by high moisture levels in both the grain and the fields. Harvest delays remain concentrated in the remaining early-planted corn in central and southern Buenos Aires. To date, harvesting has rea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate CBOT trade, which last week resulted in the ag markets seeing another period consecutive net liquidation. Managed money traders liquidated another 84,000 contracts (42 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the largest net l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5625/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $307/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Acreage Report Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices dropped sharply with traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. There were reports that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman, which would be a violation of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Pr...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.015/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $4.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: Focus Turns to New Crop Export Sales
What You Need to Know Today: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Bayer secured a favorable Suprem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.35/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.7 fro...
Market Commentary: The Battle for Support
Key Market Insights Outside markets dominated today’s session. Crude oil traded below $70 per barrel, the U.S. dollar climbed to a 13-month high, and both gold and silver posted sharp declines as traders increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, t...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 June 2026 The Russian grain market moved lower this week as prices declined across all grain categories ahead of the end of the marketing year. Weakness was observed in both European Russia and the Asian regions, where markets continue to track bearish sentiment in...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.0975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.97/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4175/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.9/short ton, up $3.1...
Market Commentary: Searching for Something New
What You Need to Know Today: There is a global rotation out of tech stocks right now amid profit-taking and expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. The White House said Iran will use its upcoming unsanctioned oil revenue to buy U.S. agricultural products, a claim that Iran later s...
Argentina’s Agricultural Export Tax Reform at Risk
Key Takeaways: Argentina is a major global agricultural exporter, but producer returns have historically been constrained by export taxes. Export taxes have been a long-standing policy tool since 1955, reintroduced in 2002 after Argentina’s financial crisis, and have since remained a key...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Egypt’s wheat market is very quiet due to good stocks and low demand. Private sector millers are using local wheat production. Egypt’s maize imports have picked up this week, with shipment...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continue to hold broadly bearish sentiments resulted in the ag markets as last week marked another in a string of consecutive net liquidation periods. Managed money traders liquidated another 105,000 contracts (35 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.415/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, down $1.5...
Market Commentary: Mixed Macro Signals Keeping Grains Rangebound
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days after “productive talks” with Iran in Switzerland over the weekend. Chevron and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement to develop Project Kilby, a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina's wheat planting campaign advanced 13.4 percentage points week over week. Despite limited rainfall, low temperatures, and elevated atmospheric humidity, soil recovery remains slow across the southern agricultural belt, where field access for machinery continues to be constrained...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4275/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary: Selling Across Most Commodities After Hawkish Fed
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1275/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.32/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0 from yest...
Market Commentary: Markets on Pins & Needles
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Naturally Resilient Crops Are Key to Drought Mitigation
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 June 2026 The Russian grain market was highly volatile during the week. The export market, the primary driver of domestic prices, remained stagnant, and bearish sentiment persisted. Weaker demand and expectations for a strong upcoming harvest encouraged exporters to...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Market Commentary: China Buying Rumors Lift Soybeans; Cattle Rise on Beef Demand Hopes
What You Need to Know Today: American and Mexican officials met Tuesday and will meet again Wednesday for another round of trade talks, where ag and energy will be a key topic. Another round is scheduled for 20 July. Ag groups are urging President Trump to renew USMCA for another 16 years, but...
Port of Chancay's Success Hinges on Inland Infrastructure
Key Takeaways: China has invested heavily in the Port of Chancay to strengthen trade links between South America and Asia. The port could reduce shipping times to China by up to two weeks and improve export competitiveness. Inland transportation infrastructure remains the primary obstacle to r...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Wheat stocks in Egypt are at good levels, with only limited import interest. However, there is some concern over the supply of wheat from the Black Sea later in the year due to current weather problem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, up $0.7 from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall across most of Argentina's agricultural regions during the past week slowed the pace of 2026/27 wheat planting. Even so, planting progress has reached 44.2 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares, following a weekly advance of 11.8 percentage points. Fieldwork was concentra...
Peace Deal in Iran: What Does It Mean for Ags?
Early Sunday evening, President Trump and Iranian officials confirmed the two countries have agreed to a peace deal. The agreement notes the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened (though President Trump cautioned time would be needed “for purposes of mine removal”) and the U.S. bl...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.135/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Quiet Trade Follows WASDE as Livestock Sector Faces Capacity Shifts
What You Need to Know Today: It was a quiet trading day across major agricultural commodities, with most contracts closing within 1 percent of the previous day's settlement. Trading volumes for corn and the soy complex were lighter than earlier in the week, as traders were positioning before a...
WASDE Soybeans - June 2026
USDA’s June outlook for 2026/27 U.S. soybean supply, use, and price projections is unchanged. U.S. soybean ending stocks are unchanged. The result is that U.S. season-average soybean price for 2026/27 is forecast at $11.40 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are $310 per short ton and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8675/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.15/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.7/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: June WASDE Light on Major Balance Sheet Changes
What You Need to Know Today: The June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations, with no major market-altering changes to the balance sheets. The Producer Price Index rose by 1.1 percent month-over-month in May 2026, exceeding economist estimates of a 0.7 percent rise. The annual head...
AP Quant: WASDE Vegoils
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.875/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.23/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.9/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: The Return of Risk Premium
Key Market Insights Macro Markets: Inflation and Iran Reenter the Conversation Just when the grain trade had become comfortable focusing almost exclusively on weather, two major macro stories returned to the spotlight this morning: inflation and Iran. May CPI came in hotter than expected, with...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
U.S. Soybean Exports Become More Diversified as Reliance on China Declines
Key Takeaways: China's rise to become the world's largest soybean importer reshaped global trade flows, but recent trade tensions have reduced its share of U.S. soybean exports. U.S. soybean exports have become increasingly diversified as exporters expanded sales to multiple emerging markets t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Trading Cools Off After an Eventful Report Week
What You Need to Know Today: The June jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k jobs, less than the 115k jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The labor force participation rate dropped by 0.3 percent to 61.5 percent, the lowest since March 2021, and the lowest in 50 ye...
U.S. Exports to Cuba: It’s About Displacement
As Cuba's economic crisis has deepened, discussions about the country's eventual economic and political transition have reemerged. One question that inevitably follows is what opportunities might emerge for U.S. agricultural exports. So, here’s a brief review of those opportunities, but n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4925/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: New Month, New Trade?
Key Market Insights July is here, and the grain markets already feel like they are shifting gears. With the June USDA reports now behind us, inflation is back in the conversation, and traders are once again turning their attention to three familiar summer drivers: demand, money flow, and weathe...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 June 2026 The Russian grain market remained volatile during the week as farmers continued to hold old-crop supplies while new-crop availability remained limited. The ruble weakened nearly 5 percent against the U.S. dollar during the week, supporting domestic grain p...
Summary of Futures
Sep 26 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $0 from...
Market Commentary: Acreage, Stocks Surprises Send Corn, Wheat Higher; Fund Selling Likely to Subside
What You Need to Know Today: The surprises from the USDA’s Acreage report were a sharp reduction in winter wheat area from the March Prospective Plantings estimates and a larger-than-expected increase in corn area. The Grain Stocks report offered relatively few surprises, but quarterly d...
High Oleic Soybeans: Premium Demand Growing, But Adoption Remains Limited
Key Takeaways: High oleic soybeans produce oil containing 70–80 percent oleic acid, improving stability and eliminating the need for partial hydrogenation, which eliminates trans fats. There are three primary varieties of high oleic soybeans available commercially: Plenish, Vistive Gold,...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Oman Flour Mills has begun its 2026 purchases of locally produced wheat. The mill runs a government-supported program that it says strengthens the country’s food supply. The program is said to “improve farming practice...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.39/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $2.3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Downside Risks Rise as Funds Pad Bearish Bets, Corn Hits New Lows
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to pause hostilities to allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz this week (theoretically, at least). There were some rumors of a possible Chinese blockade against Taiwan. Analysts are looking for the largest U.S. 1 June cor...
Indonesia’s B50 Mandate Reshapes Global Vegetable Oil Markets
Key Takeaways: Indonesia will raise its biodiesel mandate from B40 to B50 on 1 July, increasing palm oil–based diesel blending to 50 percent. The policy supports domestic palm oil demand and reduces reliance on imported diesel. Indonesia’s biodiesel program has steadily expanded si...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 29 June)
Developer's Note: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where obs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina's corn harvest continued to advance at a moderate-to-slow pace, constrained by high moisture levels in both the grain and the fields. Harvest delays remain concentrated in the remaining early-planted corn in central and southern Buenos Aires. To date, harvesting has rea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate CBOT trade, which last week resulted in the ag markets seeing another period consecutive net liquidation. Managed money traders liquidated another 84,000 contracts (42 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the largest net l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5625/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $307/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Acreage Report Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices dropped sharply with traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. There were reports that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman, which would be a violation of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Pr...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.015/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $4.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: Focus Turns to New Crop Export Sales
What You Need to Know Today: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Bayer secured a favorable Suprem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.35/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.7 fro...
Market Commentary: The Battle for Support
Key Market Insights Outside markets dominated today’s session. Crude oil traded below $70 per barrel, the U.S. dollar climbed to a 13-month high, and both gold and silver posted sharp declines as traders increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, t...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 June 2026 The Russian grain market moved lower this week as prices declined across all grain categories ahead of the end of the marketing year. Weakness was observed in both European Russia and the Asian regions, where markets continue to track bearish sentiment in...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.0975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.97/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4175/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.9/short ton, up $3.1...
Market Commentary: Searching for Something New
What You Need to Know Today: There is a global rotation out of tech stocks right now amid profit-taking and expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. The White House said Iran will use its upcoming unsanctioned oil revenue to buy U.S. agricultural products, a claim that Iran later s...
Argentina’s Agricultural Export Tax Reform at Risk
Key Takeaways: Argentina is a major global agricultural exporter, but producer returns have historically been constrained by export taxes. Export taxes have been a long-standing policy tool since 1955, reintroduced in 2002 after Argentina’s financial crisis, and have since remained a key...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Egypt’s wheat market is very quiet due to good stocks and low demand. Private sector millers are using local wheat production. Egypt’s maize imports have picked up this week, with shipment...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continue to hold broadly bearish sentiments resulted in the ag markets as last week marked another in a string of consecutive net liquidation periods. Managed money traders liquidated another 105,000 contracts (35 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.415/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, down $1.5...
Market Commentary: Mixed Macro Signals Keeping Grains Rangebound
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days after “productive talks” with Iran in Switzerland over the weekend. Chevron and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement to develop Project Kilby, a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina's wheat planting campaign advanced 13.4 percentage points week over week. Despite limited rainfall, low temperatures, and elevated atmospheric humidity, soil recovery remains slow across the southern agricultural belt, where field access for machinery continues to be constrained...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4275/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary: Selling Across Most Commodities After Hawkish Fed
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1275/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.32/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0 from yest...
Market Commentary: Markets on Pins & Needles
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Naturally Resilient Crops Are Key to Drought Mitigation
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 June 2026 The Russian grain market was highly volatile during the week. The export market, the primary driver of domestic prices, remained stagnant, and bearish sentiment persisted. Weaker demand and expectations for a strong upcoming harvest encouraged exporters to...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Market Commentary: China Buying Rumors Lift Soybeans; Cattle Rise on Beef Demand Hopes
What You Need to Know Today: American and Mexican officials met Tuesday and will meet again Wednesday for another round of trade talks, where ag and energy will be a key topic. Another round is scheduled for 20 July. Ag groups are urging President Trump to renew USMCA for another 16 years, but...
Port of Chancay's Success Hinges on Inland Infrastructure
Key Takeaways: China has invested heavily in the Port of Chancay to strengthen trade links between South America and Asia. The port could reduce shipping times to China by up to two weeks and improve export competitiveness. Inland transportation infrastructure remains the primary obstacle to r...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Wheat stocks in Egypt are at good levels, with only limited import interest. However, there is some concern over the supply of wheat from the Black Sea later in the year due to current weather problem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, up $0.7 from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall across most of Argentina's agricultural regions during the past week slowed the pace of 2026/27 wheat planting. Even so, planting progress has reached 44.2 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares, following a weekly advance of 11.8 percentage points. Fieldwork was concentra...
Peace Deal in Iran: What Does It Mean for Ags?
Early Sunday evening, President Trump and Iranian officials confirmed the two countries have agreed to a peace deal. The agreement notes the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened (though President Trump cautioned time would be needed “for purposes of mine removal”) and the U.S. bl...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.135/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Quiet Trade Follows WASDE as Livestock Sector Faces Capacity Shifts
What You Need to Know Today: It was a quiet trading day across major agricultural commodities, with most contracts closing within 1 percent of the previous day's settlement. Trading volumes for corn and the soy complex were lighter than earlier in the week, as traders were positioning before a...
WASDE Soybeans - June 2026
USDA’s June outlook for 2026/27 U.S. soybean supply, use, and price projections is unchanged. U.S. soybean ending stocks are unchanged. The result is that U.S. season-average soybean price for 2026/27 is forecast at $11.40 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are $310 per short ton and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8675/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.15/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.7/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: June WASDE Light on Major Balance Sheet Changes
What You Need to Know Today: The June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations, with no major market-altering changes to the balance sheets. The Producer Price Index rose by 1.1 percent month-over-month in May 2026, exceeding economist estimates of a 0.7 percent rise. The annual head...
AP Quant: WASDE Vegoils
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.875/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.23/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.9/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: The Return of Risk Premium
Key Market Insights Macro Markets: Inflation and Iran Reenter the Conversation Just when the grain trade had become comfortable focusing almost exclusively on weather, two major macro stories returned to the spotlight this morning: inflation and Iran. May CPI came in hotter than expected, with...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
U.S. Soybean Exports Become More Diversified as Reliance on China Declines
Key Takeaways: China's rise to become the world's largest soybean importer reshaped global trade flows, but recent trade tensions have reduced its share of U.S. soybean exports. U.S. soybean exports have become increasingly diversified as exporters expanded sales to multiple emerging markets t...