Beef packer margins were positive for the second straight week with holiday grilling demand supporting the beef market and packer profits. Packers have don...
Articles
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders shifting from a neutral to a more bearish sentiment across the ag space. Funds added 63,000...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Ideal Weather; Cattle Rally Despite Feeder Imports Resuming
Grain markets gapped-lower on the Sunday night opening after a weekend of uneventful and favorable weather that was absent of any significant trade news. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close...
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened; African Moves; WTO Reforms
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened President Trump announced that the 9 July deadline for trade agreements with the U.S. to avoid reciprocal tariff...
Skinny Farm Bill Left to Finish
President Trump said yesterday that the U.S. is nearing several new trade deals and that letters will be sent to trading partners by 9 July warning of incr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting now covers 78.2 percent of Argentina’s projected 6.7 million hectares after a weekly advance of 5.5 percentage points. Fie...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania moved to extend its grain import licensing system for Ukrainian products through the end of 2025. The measure is intended to mi...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day But a Strong Week, And More Ahead
It was the last trading day of a shorter trading week that provided lots of inputs. It started with the Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports, which changed...
U.S. July Fourth Holiday
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow, Friday, 4 July in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resume our...
Livestock Roundup: China Impact on Red Meat Markets
Pork export sales for the week ending 26 June slowed, following the large volume booked the previous week. However, in the last five weeks pork export sale...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.37/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Emerge from Hibernation
Usually, one discusses bears - not bulls - emerging from hibernation, but the somewhat discongruous title of today's report is an accurate image of Wednesd...
Vietnam Deal; EU Green Targets
Vietnam Deal As the 9 July deadline approaches, a second trade deal was announced by President Trump. He says the U.S. will apply a 20 percent tariff on im...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.64/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of g...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday&rsq...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...
Feeder Cattle Import Update
As summer demand for beef is upon us, fed cattle hit $233 per cwt yesterday, having moved above $200 per cwt in April on tight supplies. The cattle herd as...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is closing several collection centers for this year’s wheat crop due to a drop...
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12; Power of Ag; Trump Power
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12 Delineating the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution from the rights of the states has long been a legal fight in the...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins finally turned positive last week, the first time packers have made money killing cattle since last October. Margins swung dramatically...
Market Commentary: USDA Reports Offer Few Surprises, Weather Dominates Trade Outlook
The USDA’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports dominated the CBOT’s attention on Monday with the Noon ET release of both datasets driving the day&...
Un-Trade Agreements; Ag in Big Beautiful Bill; CAP Controversy
Un-Trade Agreements It did not take long for Canadian officials to reverse their digital services tax after President Trump threatened to end trade negotia...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close...
WPI Wheat Outlook: 2025/26 Prices to Firm After Q1 Weakness
With the June Grain Stocks report now in the rear-view mirror and having offered USDA’s somewhat final (there is always the possibility of revisions)...
Crop Life America Registers Strong Comments on MAHA Strategy
In a 12-page letter to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Crop Life America (CLA) outlined a number of issues for the Make America Healthy Again (...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The Argentine government has officially issued a decree extending the reduction of export taxes for wheat and barley, while restoring pre...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders leaning mostly neutral the major ag markets last week, with activity across the grains and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. N...
Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering
Traders seemed content to take short risk off the table heading into the weekend with USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Monday. Fu...
Trade Negotiation Update; Miscellaneous
Trade Negotiation Update There were no shortages of eye-opening news reports this week and the notable one on trade late today was President Trump’s...
Input Costs Forecast to Rise, Led by Fertilizer
After rising sharply in 2022, input costs remain stubbornly high yet today. At the same time, the prices received for major crops like corn, soybeans and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets Dy bulk markets were mixed this week with the Capesize sector sliding lower as geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East pushed bu...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: More Declines But They Slowed
The bleeding didn’t stop, but it slowed down today. Although corn and soybeans were up in the overnight and opened that way this morning, it didn&rsq...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The numbers were in line with pre-report expectations. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 June...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Weather, Seasonal Factors Imply Short Profit Opportunities
The Market Oilseed markets have certainly seen no lack of volatility over the past several weeks, with the EPA’s surprise, bullish Renewable Vo...
Market Commentary: Good Weather is Bad for Bulls
The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with favorable weather for the U.S. 2025 spring crops and weaker global grain markets exacting a heavy toll. Notable...
Ignoring Margins; Trump Tariff Win
Ignoring Margins The U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights held a hearing yesterday on, Reducing Regulator...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1025/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 June 2025 Grain markets plummeted to seasonally low price levels which are usually established at the beginning of the...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oil Fall on Risk-off Trade after Middle East Ceasefire
The biggest drive of the CBOT’s Tuesday trade had little to do with grain markets themselves and, rather, was primarily focused on risk and positioni...
Trade Agreements Challenged; No Non-reciprocals; Miniature Meat Plant
Trade Agreements Challenged The 9 July deadline for countries to reach individual trade agreements with the U.S. is fast approaching and while the Trump Ad...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.52/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
USDA will release its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report tomorrow. The pre-report estimate is as follows: The pigs per litter for March through May is forecas...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan’s wheat reserves are reportedly at 10 month consumption with barley supply at...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...