The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with grain and oilseed futures seeing pressure develop after the U.S. and Colombia averted a possible tit-for-t...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Un-Whole of Government; Apex Predator; Heavy Lift
Un-Whole of Government President Trump’s memorandum last week announcing his America First Trade Policy (AFTP) was issued to five federal departments...
January Cattle on Feed Report Bullish
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report on Friday. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.8 million head, 99 percent...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The state of agriculture in Argentina and the loss of export competitiveness become clearer when examined through recent data. The official inflation rate...
Market Commentary: Market Stalls Waiting for South American Weather Definition
There were modest volumes on this last trading day of the week, except in soymeal and cattle where the goal was to get out of the former and into the latte...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 10-16, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 164,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.865/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on January 1, 2025 – down 1 percent from January 1, 20...
Rollins Confirmation Hearing
As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, the Senate Agriculture Committee held a confirmation hearing on the nomination of Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of...
Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather
TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still...
Rollins Rolled; Cluelessness at the Top
Rollins Rolled Poised, confident, charming - USDA Secretary-Designate Brooke Rollins hit the trifecta today at her confirmation hearing before the Senate A...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish Feeder Pig Market
Bullish feeder pig prices could signal an expected return to improved profitability for hog production later this year. The 17 January Nationa...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8975/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat on Profit Taking, Tariff Talk; Cattle Hit $200 for First Time
Except for soymeal and the livestock markets, the CBOT was lower on Wednesday with traders booking profits and taking a more cautious approach after the re...
Transatlantic Tariffication; Biofuel Battles
Transatlantic Tariffication President Trump’s bromance with big tech billionaires has refocused his attention on Europe. The large penalties and regu...
Summary of Futures
Please see attachment...
Global Wheat Dominance
Russia’s wheat supplies may be tighter, but it is still not out of the market. Egypt's state grain buyer, Mostakbal Misr, is said to have made a &ldq...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 January 2025 Last week, the market woke up from the prolonged Christmas holidays and surprisingly remained bullish aga...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were decidedly mixed last week with diverging trends developing across the industry. Beef packer margins gained for the second s...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Surge as Dollar Slides
The first full day of the Trump Presidency saw CBOT grain futures surge as the U.S. dollar pulled back sharply. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all saw strong bu...
Day One Trump Executive Orders
Shortly after his swearing-in as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump signed a slew of Executive Orders (EO) putting the wheels in motion...
Summary of Futures
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Tariffs Hurt Ag, Help Oil?; Billionaire Farm Boy; Ignoring the Labels
Tariffs Hurt Ag, Help Oil? The President, aka “Tariff Man” pronounced at his inauguration that, “we will tariff and tax foreign countries...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Perhaps the bigge...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Market Gets a Bounce Ahead of Long Weekend
Commodity markets retraced some of the losses from Thursday, ending higher on Friday but not necessarily for the week. Corn is on a roll, nearing heights n...
Martin Luther King Holiday
Please note that Monday, 20 January is a U.S. federal holiday in honor of the remarkable achievements of Martin Luther King, Jr. As a result, both the mark...
Transitioning to Trump at USDA and in Congress
Monday is the Presidential Inaugural. This week has seen several Senate confirmation hearings on cabinet appointees. Both the Republicans and Democra...
Political Sillies
No Introspection: Joe Biden’s farewell address appears to have been written by a 25-year-old at the socialist leaning People’s Policy Project. He claims hi...
Cow-Calf Revenues Set Record in 2024, Profitability to Continue in 2025
The rally in feeder cattle and calf prices from September 2024 through mid-January 2025 provided cow-calf producers with near-record profitability for the...
Market Commentary: Give Us Our Daily Brake
Futures took a weather break today. The rain slated for Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend doesn’t appear monumental, but something is better than...
Livestock Roundup: Food Inflation Driven by Proteins
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December yesterday. For the month, the CPI was up 0.4 percent, while...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 3-9, 2025Wheat: Net sales of 513,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Trends and Acreage Outlook
U.S. Soybean Crush Dynamics On Wednesday, National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) said its members crushed an all-time record volume of soyb...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger sp...
Squeezing Russian Wheat; Save the Rats; Rollins Delayed
Squeezing Russia with WheatEurope is afraid that Donald Trump is ready to capitulate to Vladimir Putin next week when he becomes president. But Trump has a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 January 2025Traditionally during a prolonged holiday season, which in Russia does not coincide with the holiday season in mos...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest While Eyeing South American Weather
The CBOT turned mostly lower on Tuesday as the excitement from the bullish WASDE faded. Traders now see the corn and soybean yield and production cuts as f...
Produce Price Inflation Mixed Signals
Producer price inflation (PPI) ended 2024 up 0.2 percent in December. That is a modest gain and was below pre-report expectations. Nonetheless, the PPI was...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...
Impacts on U.S. Ethanol Trade
Brazil is the second largest producer and use of ethanol after the U.S. The U.S. has an import tariff on ethanol of 2.5 percent ad valorem and has asked Br...
Tariff Adjustment/Musk; Cynical Biden Trade Goals; Biofuel Proposal Disappoints
Tariff Adjustment /MuskRecognizing the inflation threat of sudden and large import tariffs, Donald Trump’s economic team: Scott Bessent (Treasury), Kevin H...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONSyria has been added to Ukraine’s list of countries eligible for assistance under the “Grain from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were broadly higher last week with the one exception being placement margins for feedlots and closeout margins for farrow-to-fin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ ac...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trying to Find New Ranges
The CBOT saw more bullish influences on Monday from Friday’s WASDE report in which USDA slashed the 2024 U.S. corn and soybean yields. After considering th...
Coming Nominations Hearings
President-elect Trump’s inauguration is in one week. In the meantime, the Senate will soon start confirmation hearings on several of his cabinet nominees...
Greedflation’s Weaknesses; UPF Attack
Greedflation’s WeaknessesThe U.S. government is suing apartment owners for using RealPage software algorithms for setting rents. The grocery industry may b...
Noise as China Faces 2025
Trade WarPost the November U.S. election, the focus has been on preparing for an inevitable trade war with the U.S. China has increased government reserve...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatWith week-on-week progress of 3.5 percentage points, Argentina’s wheat harvest has reached 98 percent of the area and is nearing completion. Total pro...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the Balkans and Ukraine saw unseasonably warm weather with moderate rainfall while Russia saw cold weather with light precipi...
Market Commentary: Big Bullish Whopper
This last trading day of the first full trading week of 2025 came in like a whimper and went out with a bang. The trading day started with a notably sub-pa...
45Z Tax Credit Preliminary Guidance Released; No GREET Model Yet
As WPI reported on 6 December, the Treasury Department had promised that the compliance regulations for the 45Z Clean Fuels Production credit would be rele...
Updated: The Historic Context for January WASDE Yield Surprises
Errata: The original version of this article incorrectly state the January 2018 soybean yield estimate at 50.6 BPA, instead of the true February (which mad...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.705/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 27, 2024 – January 2, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 111,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--...