Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 June 2025 The grain market continued the transition from old crop to new crop meaning that the bearish trend is now acro...
Articles
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn; Wheat Selling Continues; Cattle Wobble on ICE Rumors
The overnight CBOT trade showed corn pushing lower while the soy complex traded modestly higher on hopes for positive outcomes from the U.S.-China trade me...
Calm Amidst Upheaval; Unilateral Impacts; Ethanol’s Rise
Calm Amidst Upheaval Data or surveys about attitudes or opinions are said to be “soft” data since they are emotive based and less reliable. Sof...
New Meat Giant Created in Brazil; Most of Revenue from U.S.
While the MAHA report from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. still cites consolidation in the meat packing sector, Brazil’s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Grain markets in the MENA region are quiet due to the Musim Eid holidays that extends thro...
Livestock Industry Margins
New all-time highs in fed cattle prices caused beef packer margins to collapse again last week. Beef packer margins fell $97/head to -$299 – a new al...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather Forecasts while Livestock Futures Hit New Highs
Except for the livestock futures, which all hit new contract or record highs, the CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with favorable weather and bearis...
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up; CAP Rush; Europe’s Military and Agriculture
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up The big story involves U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators meeting in London this week. Discussions lasted three hours today and...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
USDA Trade Estimates Report Comes Under Scrutiny
USDA’s delay of its quarterly agricultural trade report, and exclusion of its typical explanatory text, raised concerns because the moves raised ques...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3.3 percentage points over the past week and reached 43.8 percent of the estimated area nationwide. Prog...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s recent strikes against Ukraine and poor progress in peace talks between the two countries in Istanbul have added “...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bearish the major ag markets, last week with steady net selling across the gra...
Market Commentary: Strong Friday and an Upward Bound Week
If yesterday’s trading looked like uncertainty ultimately succumbing to the bulls, today’s trading opened with the bears fully in charge. Contr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. ...
Beyond the Report Headlines: Measuring Trump’s Effects
The BLS released the employment report this morning indicating that the U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, down slightly from April’s revised 147,000, b...
Even After Recent Market Gains, Hog and Pork Outlook Remains Rosy
Anyone following the hog and pork markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Markets In paper dry-bulk markets, the Capesize sector increased slightly this week on stronger demand from miners, but the move was insuffi...
Market Commentary: Volatility But Stability
It was a very active open this morning with lots of lead changes as corn and soybean traders wrestled over whether bears or bulls were in control. Even win...
Export Sale
Export Sales and Shipments for May 23-29, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 49,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025. Export shipments of 540,100 MT w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.455/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Margins Set to Rise; China Soymeal Prices Remain Weak
The Market U.S. soybean prices have mostly been treading water these past few weeks with neither bulls nor bears able to get the upper hand for more...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Herd Rebuilding
The cattle herd is at historic lows and herd rebuilding has continued to be put off. Profitability is the key factor, and near record cattle prices have in...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved t...
Agriculture Front and Center; Confounding Farmers; Miscellaneous Fun; Farm Bill Fight; Feeding Gaza
Agriculture Front and Center It is notable that all the examples provided by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt of high foreign tariffs involved...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 – 30 May 2025 The grain market was more similar to an end of June market rather than end of May. A new season seems to have...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while whea...
Getting Tough; Abundance Debate
Getting Tough It isn’t just the U.S. judicial system offering up hurdles to President Trump’s trade war. It has been noted that different...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
Feeder Cattle Outlook
Feeder steer prices remain at historic highs across all major regions, averaging 22.9 percent higher year-over- year, and 58 percent higher than the five-y...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan has said that it could buy additional U.S. soybeans in order to eliminate the sma...
Livestock Industry Margins
Strong meat demand for the first weekend of the unofficial summer grilling season helped both beef and pork packer margins improve last week. Beef packer m...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Rally Struggles
The major development at the CBOT on Monday was that bears finally gained full control of the corn and soybean markets with multiple bearish headlines allo...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. ...
TACO or Not; U.S. – Japan Relations; Reciprocal Trade Momentum; Nutritional Police State
TACO or Not Financial markets have again steadied following the renewed war of words between Beijing and Washington. The two competitors cannot agree on mu...
Tariff Threats Escalation Again: China and EU
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce import tariffs by a combined 115 percentage points, down to 10 percent. The agreement was intended to cool year...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with only 40 percent of the total area harvested so far. The delay...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The UK, most of northern/central Europe, parts of eastern Europe and the eastern Black Sea all received beneficial rainfall last week,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag markets, or at least less bearish. Funds cut their net sh...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 16-22, 2025. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 128,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 2...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added som...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher r...
Challenging Analogues
Drew Lerner at World Weather, Inc. makes an interesting analogy between U.S. weather this spring, and that of 1968. Both this year and 1968 involved recove...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and so...
Livestock Roundup: Chicken Weights Suggest Sandwich War Return
USDA updated its forecast for broiler production in 2025 and released its initial estimate for 2026. The 2025 estimate was revised lower by 260 million pou...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially ap...
Trade Negotiation Hurdles; Bond Market Conflict; Companionship or Dinner
Trade Negotiation Hurdles U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet again tomorrow in a bid to reach an agreement by 9 July; there is a lot of skepticism about it...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 –23 May 2025 Grain markets finally realized that the new crop is near and bearish adjustments between the old crop and new...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to st...
MAHA Targets Glyphosate
The seminal report on the state of America’s health, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report, focuses on the environmental exposure to pesticide...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul...
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning; BBB Fails Farmers; Optimal Tariffs
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning Brussels responded quickly to President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs to 50 percent. But a renewed commitment to negotiate...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s wheat crop is expected to be down by 75 percent this year due to severe drou...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets i...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent from a year ago on May 1, 2025. Cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head and totaled 11.4 million.&nbs...