It was another day of trading in the green in the overnight for grains and the soy complex only to fail following through in the day session for wheat and...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4975/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.&n...
Trade Deal with UK
Yesterday, President Trump announced from the Oval Office a trade deal “in principle” with the UK, the first of its kind following the reciproc...
Corn & Soybean Outlook: Riding Seasonal Patterns
With markets awaiting the May WASDE and USDA’s first comprehensive look at the 2025/26 crop balance sheets, many traders and analysts are looking for...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal, Retaliation List, Mixed Outcomes
Soybeans and soyoil held their gains from higher overnight closes, but the guidance of being higher to neutral overnight in corn, wheat and meal was reject...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 25-May 1, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 69,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 3 percent from the previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&n...
Livestock Roundup: North American Beef and Pork Forecast
The U.S. beef cow herd stabilized somewhat in 2024. The average culling rate was 10.5 percent, but with a beef cow herd of 28 million, the cull rate would...
Oilseed Highlights: Markets Turn Lower on Growing Supply Expectations
The Market Soybean futures have mostly traded sideways over the past two weeks with trade policy uncertainty, favorable weather for the U.S. and Sout...
Market Commentary: Funds Remain Bearish Ag Space Despite U.S.-China Trade Talks
The CBOT turned higher overnight after late Tuesday announcement of a China/U.S. meeting in Switzerland to discuss tariffs and reduce trade tensions. The f...
It’s Complicated
This is a list of vignettes about the most consequential politician of our times. Donald Trump is not complicated if one just reads the rants of his oppone...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4925/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 April – 2 May 2025 Russian audit, corporate finance, and consultancy company BEFL published a rating of Russia’s larg...
Market Commentary: Corn Firms on Surprise Export Demand; Soy Complex Drifts Lower
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday following Monday’s drubbing across the grains and oilseeds markets. Tuesday saw continued selling pressure in the soy c...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.555/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...
Dollar Exchange Rate Impacts on Trade
President Trump is using tariffs to rectify what he asserts is the unfair practices by other countries. He also accuses trading partners of currency manipu...
Recession Watch
Real GDP dipped at a -0.3 percent annual rate in Q1, the first decline for any quarter since 2022. However, the main reason was that trade with other count...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran’s 2025 wheat production is being hurt by very dry weather. Rainfall up to Febru...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins worsened last week for both the beef and pork sector as higher animal costs exceeded any gains in meat values. Beef packer margins fell...
Market Commentary: Corn Leads Grains Lower on Fund Selling; Cattle Hit New Highs Again
Except for the cattle markets, the CBOT was sharply lower to start the week with trade policy, favorable weather, and weak technicals and large noncommerci...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3125/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close...
Trade Policy Contradictions
There are numerous trade policy contradictions, both between the U.S. and other countries, and within U.S. politics. Internationally, China worries about i...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It was another very short trading week in Argentina, with Thursday and Friday being national holidays. Argentina’s corn harvest continues...
FDA Approves PRRS Resistant Pigs
After years of research and a lengthy regulatory approval process, Genus Pig Improvement Company (PIC) has received clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug A...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather forecast for Europe and the Black Sea remain highly varied, though mostly optimistic for grain and oilseed production. Cond...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds continue to lean bearish the ag space with money managers either paring back longs or expanding shorts. The on...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Low Volume, Higher Close Day
It was the lowest trading volume day of the week for grains and soybeans. It started with soyoil the only major contract trading lower, but by mid-session...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...
Trade Deals Being Worked on With Japan, China, and the EU
Japanese trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is in D.C. to talk trade. During a two-hour meeting with various officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bes...
Cocoa Market Outlook: Prices Set to Cool as Production Increases
The outlook for the last half of the 2024/25 cocoa market is dominated by generally favorable weather and upward revisions to production estimates. Demand...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 18-24, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 72,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and...
Market Commentary: Wheat Remains Weak, Corn and Soybeans Hold Their Own
It was modest volume trading grain and oilseeds today. Again, the lack of any new fundamental news has traders keeping their powder dry. USDA’s May W...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7225/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Round Up: Broiler Outlook 2025
Broiler fundamentals continue to be favorable largely due to tight beef supplies and a more favorable value proposition versus the rest of the beef and por...
Oilseed Highlights: Crush Margins Improve
The Market Soybean crushing margins improved 5 percent this week as lower soybean costs offset a mild dip in soyoil values while soymeal prices were...
Market Commentary: Q1 GDP Slowdown Hits Equities, Cattle Markets; Grains Gain while Soybeans Slumber
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with grain and oilseed markets lacking much fresh fundamental news, other than weather updates and the first deliveries aga...
Monumental Task; Rushed Deal; Polypessimistic
Monumental Task Luke Lindberg appeared before the Senate Agriculture Committee yesterday to be interviewed for the position of USDA Under Secretary for Tra...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.755/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The spring planting campaign in Russia is in full swing. Fifty-six regions of Russia are...
Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Record Rally; Wheat Finds New Lows; Corn, Soyoil Collapse
The CBOT tried to rally overnight and posted some slight gains heading into the morning break, but thereafter the market quickly found selling pressure. Mo...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.255/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Trade War Positions
Canadians reacted with understandable revulsion to President Trump’s insults to their nation. In yesterday’s election, they were given two choi...
Canadian Elections
Canadian voters went to the polls last night. They selected Mark Carney, the current Prime Minister, as the leader of the new government. The writ of elect...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Oman will be hosting the USSEC 9th Regional Aquaculture Production Conference 2-5 May. Sus...
Livestock Industry Margins
The pork industry saw production margins improve last week as strong pork demand lifted prices for both the pork cutout and physical hogs. Pork packer marg...
Market Commentary: Cattle Hit New Records while Wheat Hits New Lows; Planting in Focus
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with expectations of favorable planting progress in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report creating much o...
Quick Hits
Canadian Elections: Canada is going to the polls today. Earlier in the year, the Liberal Party was out of favor in Canada, but Trump’s talk of the 51...
Hard Hit with Benefits; American Consumerism; AI’s Trump Trade Solution
Hard Hit with Benefits U.S. agriculture will likely bear the brunt of retaliation by trading partners responding to Mr. Trump’s tariff war, but it co...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn A week of favorable weather has given a strong boost to the summer crop harvest. As anticipated, farmers have already switched from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News EU grain markets continue to see pressure as the euro’s meteoric rise to a 3½-year high against the U.S. dollar undermines...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures...
Market Commentary: No Raucous End to the Week
With no new input on fundamentals, traders passively went through the day making only minor changes. Monday’s crop progress report will provide some...
North Dakota and Glyphosate
Bayer CEO Bill Anderson averred in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that the company will make a decision “in months” - not years –...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
U.S. soybean processing margins have seen considerable volatility over the past month as multiple fundamental factors upended global oilseed and product pr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. J...
Market Commentary: Markets Continue Rebound
Soybeans and corn rose in overnight trading on optimism about the de-escalation of the trade war with China, the world’s largest importer of the oils...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 145,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Round Up: 2024 Slaughter Totals
The annual livestock slaughter data for 2024 was released Tuesday from USDA. Despite a reduced cattle supply, beef production totaled 27 billion pounds, up...
Oilseed Highlights: Vegoils Rally; Old Crop Demand Remains Strong
The Market The oilseed markets are mostly higher this week with U.S. old crop demand, a slow harvest start in Argentina, and a slight settling in glo...
Market Commentary: Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Hits New Lows; More Trump Uncertainty
The CBOT was mixed again on Wednesday with grains seeing pressure from fund selling and a lack of significant news while soybeans and livestock traded high...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...
Green Win/Lose, China Win, China Lose, Foreign Aid
Greens Win/Lose The only government-backed organization to say glyphosate is carcinogenic is the UN’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IA...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that around 90 percent of all winter c...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Planting Pace, Weather, South American Outlook
The CBOT ended mixed on Tuesday as traders parsed through a slew of different data points. Perhaps the most influential news for the day was private crop a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nb...
HPAI Waning This Spring
In 2022 and 2023, most HPAI cases affected producers during the spring and fall. The years 2024 and 2025 were different, however. The bulk of cases occurre...
The Future of the U.S. – China Trade War
The Washington International Trade Association held a conference today entitled, Phase 2: The Art of the Deal with China. Experts included former USTR offi...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq has confirmed that it will not need to import as much wheat in 2024/25 as it expects...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with p...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...