The CBOT saw technical trade emerge and dominate the day, which sent corn, wheat, and soybeans higher after a weak overnight start. The day’s strengt...
Articles
Wheat 180; Thinking Small
Wheat 180 Concerned that wheat modified using biotech would cause the collapse of U.S. wheat’s overseas markets, growers wrote a policy in 2008 (late...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9275/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. ...
Fiscal Policy Post Election
Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. election, policymaking in 2025 and beyond will play out in an environment shaped by the federal budget deficit and na...
Cold Storage Anomalies
USDA’s Cold Storage report for July showed the volume of beef and pork continuing to decline. There is a natural seasonal decline as the summer barbe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Iranian wheat farmers are complaining that the government has not yet pai...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Find New Lows; Soy Complex Rallies with Soyoil in the Lead
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with corn scoring new contract lows after Friday’s crop tour’s record-breaking yield forecast while wheat was on t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat On 20 August, rainfall ranged from 2-10 millimeters across almost the entire province of Buenos Aires, the agricultural region of La Pampa, and...
California LCFS Proposes Caps on Soybean and Canola Oil
This month the California Air Resources Board (CARB) issued a proposal to modify the Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS), including a cap on the use of soyoil...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.865/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Drought in Romania has affected over 2 Mha of wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seed with about 40 percent of the crops having been...
Spring Wheat Quality
Some are raising concerns that cooler temperatures and excess late season rain have caused quality problems for the typically high protein/strong gluten sp...
Political Fallacies
He who smelt it, dealt it. This vulgar framing nonetheless holds an underlying truth. Politicians are concurrently demagoguing about high food prices and w...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week...
Cattle on Feed
• U.S. Cattle on Feed totaled 11.1 million head on August 1, 2024 - slightly above 2023. • Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.70...
Market Commentary: Little to Move the Market But it Moved Anyways
The only real market mover on this last trading day of the week was the Fed’s nod to rate cuts. It is still bearish in grains, and the soy complex co...
Cattle on Feed Report: Placements, Marketings Up Compared to Low July 2023
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Total inventory and marketings were as expected, but placements were up above the pre-report consens...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.91/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.28/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. ...
Cotton Market Basics and 2024/25 Outlook
Following recent client requests, WPI provides the following overview of the cotton market, its basic structure and recent trends, and a short outlook for...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New Contract Lows; Corn, Soybeans Fall on Record Yields
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday with the Canadian rail workers strike and forecasts of record-breaking yields emboldening bears. Wheat futures score...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.935/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close.&n...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed as of 1 Augu...
Oilseed Highlights: Big Crop Gets Bigger
The Market Soybeans had been rebounding from last Friday’s new contract low but news from the Pro Farmer crop tour of seeing record high pod counts c...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 9-15, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 492,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 45 percent from the previous wee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9825/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: EU and U.S. Wheat Futures Decline Sharply; Soy Climbs on Sales to China
The CBOT saw mixed trade on Wednesday with wheat futures seeing the most interesting trade as they posted double-digit losses amid weak European markets an...
U.S. Agriculture’s Downfall; Mexican Threats
U.S. Agriculture’s Downfall Technically, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has no fingerprints on her Party’s Convention policy pla...
Wheat Supplier Trends and Volatility
Global wheat ending stocks have been on a steady decline since 2017/18. Global corn ending stocks have also declined and nothing compares to the relatively...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania’s government announced a drought compensation program for farmers that will range from €200-250/ha with the total ai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 August 2024 Crop Outlook As of 13 August, Russian farmers produced 69 MMT of grains from 20.6 Mha versus 73.5 MMT from 1...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina...
CBO Farm Bill Score
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has scored the House Agriculture Committee’s farm bill at $322.973 billion over budget over 10 years, and $15.3...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.98/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.33/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...
China Developments; Canned or Uncanned
China Developments For a second day in a row, China bought U.S. soybeans now totaling nearly a half million tons early this week, not counting sales to unk...
Dairy Trade Expands Despite Hurdles
Concerns about faltering U.S. dairy exports last year have now subsided as growth has returned to the sector. This despite: production growth leveling of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s recent massive wheat tender did not generate the 3.8 MMT of...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m b...
Jackson Hole Fed Conference Setting Outlook for Monetary Policy
As WPI reported last week, inflation – particularly food inflation – has been ensconced in the 2024 election campaign. The USDA released its fo...
Interconnected Biodiesel Mess; Food Fight over Inflation
Interconnected Biodiesel Mess Markets are globalized and so when the U.S. has border measures against Chinese steel or EVs, more get diverted to the Europe...
Limits of STU
CME corn and soybean prices rebounded today with the December corn contract price back over $4/bushel but November soybeans still under the $10 threshold a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0025/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Currently, 85 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is in normal to good condition, reflecting a nearly 10 percent decline from the previous...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the majo...
Market Commentary: Weather, Specs and Cheap Prices
The weather is bearish, except for spring wheat, and speculators are record short. Even having the cheapest grain in the world cannot spark enough new dema...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.925/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...
Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Half Full or Half Empty?
On 29 July, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced that it has purchased 4.65 million barrels of crude oil to be delivered to the Strategic Petroleu...
Despite Market Volatility, U.S. Economic Outlook Remains Strong
As WPI readers know, the U.S. stock markets have recently seen heightened volatility due to surprising macroeconomic data and trends, including unemploymen...
Third Time’s a Charm; California versus Iowa; State Run Economy
Third Time’s a Charm After losing appeals before the Ninth and Eleventh Courts of Appeal, Bayer won a unanimous decision from the Third Circuit Court...
Market Commentary: Bearish Pall Over 2024/25 Sends CBOT Lower
Soymeal was the only major CBOT ag market to see significantly higher trade with the rest of the grains and oilseed sector either holding steady or scoring...
Livestock Roundup: Food Inflation Enters the Presidential Campaign
Food inflation has made its way into the Presidential campaign. In a rally in Michigan yesterday, Republican Vice Presidential candidate Senator J.D. Vance...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.97/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oilseed Highlights: Bigger, Cheaper, Bin Busting
The Market The soy complex continues its trek lower with November soybeans down 34.1 cents (-3.4 percent) thus far this week, December soymeal down $2.70 (...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Bounce Higher; Paris Wheat Falls; Livestock Futures Extend Gains
The CBOT and CME markets were mostly higher on Wednesday with soybeans and soymeal seeing a surprise turnaround in the afternoon after scoring new contract...
Vietnam FTA; Debt versus Efficiency; Gallows Humor
Vietnam FTA USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service notes that the U.S. is the largest trading partner with Vietnam that lacks a free trade agreement. Th...
Oats Decline
A relatively minor crop, just a little over 2 MMT of oats are globally traded each year. Still, it is an important niche and yet seemingly in decline. This...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 August 2024 Crop Outlook Russian analysts woke up to the fact that grain production reported from farms is higher than ori...
Leverage at all Cost; NZ Joins Modern Era
Leverage at all Cost Activists have asked the Biden Administration to end the use of economic sanctions against other countries, saying they amount to a co...
Market Commentary: Soy Posts New Lows; Corn Eases on Yields, Conditions; Cattle Extend Rally
The aftermath of the August WASDE saw the major ag CBOT contracts push lower, with the greatest weakness concentrated in the soy complex. There was really...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9725/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.2875/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&...
Citrus Impacts
The global production of oranges is nearly five times greater than the output of lemons and limes. Their distribution is different as well. Over a third of...
Tracking Sustainable Aviation Fuel
A bill has been introduced in the House of Representatives that would require the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to add sustainable aviation...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s wheat production is estimated by the Iraq Wheat Board to be...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores Bullish Reversal; WASDE Confirms Soy’s Bearish Outlook
The WASDE held more than a few surprises on Monday with USDA offering hope for the beleaguered corn market to the extent that futures posted a bullish key...
Balancing Offense and Defense; Border Measures; Economic Returns from Sport
Balancing Offense and Defense All growers of all crops are not necessarily competitive even in a large agriculture country. Major U.S. row crop growers hav...
Spuds Sputter
It is reported that EU potato production has fallen by 37 percent over the past 20 years. This is consistent with U.S. potato production falling by 10.6 pe...
WASDE Livestock Projections
Today’s WASDE made marginal changes to the projections for red meat and broiler production for the second half of the year. The beef fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.015/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&nb...
European Market Analysis
Regional News International demand for wheat has picked up after the recent decline in prices with Egypt and Algeria issuing large tenders last week...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After several weeks of waiting, rain finally fell over much of Argentina’s wheat-planted area, bringing relief to many producers. However...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds more aggressively covering shorts in the grains and oilseed sector heading into the August WASDE. The most notable...
Market Commentary: Slow, Steady Descent Ahead of WASDE
Midwest commodity futures had a bearish but mild week relative to the volatility on Wall Street. Volume in general trended lower as the week progressed and...