Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamenta...
Articles
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&...
U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption
U.S. manufacturing energy consumption has continued to increase, according to the EIA’s recently released survey results for 2022. The agency conduct...
Transatlantic Provocations; Indian Adjustments; Grain Industry Threats
Transatlantic Provocations No one knows what to fully expect on 2 April and the launch of President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Bill Reinsc...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco’s rainfall has increased this year after the last two/three years of drought...
Livestock Industry Margins
The big story in livestock industry margins continues to be the record-breaking weakness in beef packer profits, which fell another $50/head last week to -...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any upda...
Monday Policy Potpourri
Hill Trade Advice: The U.S. House Ways & Means’ Trade Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow on American trade negotiation priorities. Witne...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Thanks to a week of minimal rainfall across Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest is gaining momentum. Weekly progress...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Hot CoF Report After the Close
The fundamentals are unchanged but there is a cloud overhead due to the impending tariff war and the headwinds that portends. So, the market today and all...
Cattle on Feed - March 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head was 11.6 million head on March 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below March 1,...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.6 million head, 98 percent of l...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Cow-Calf Revenues and Producer Responses to Inflation
Southern Plains cow-calf producers saw excellent profitability in 2024, which, by some measures, was the best in history. Current prices indicate that 2025...
Market Commentary: Export Sales, Weather Mix the Markets
Wheat was the ball and chain while corn was the balloon in today’s trading. The weekly USDA Export Sales report from USDA was notable for wheat with...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 7-13, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 248,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--we...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Exports Stumble; China Crush Falls
The Market The weekly Export Sales report was disappointing for soybeans as old crop net sales fell by half from the prior week and new crop net sale...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots...
Market Commentary: U.S., Paris Wheat Diverge; Corn Consolidates; New Highs for Cattle
Except for the wheat market, the CBOT and CME largely continued their existing trends on Wednesday. Wheat futures offered perhaps the most interesting trad...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Trade War Fractures
Today was National Agriculture Trade Day, an effort to boost awareness about the benefits of trade to the sector. However, the milestone also sparked debat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 March 2025 Probably for the first time in recent history the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has announced crop produc...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were mostly lower last week as rising input costs crimped the profitability outlook. Declines were greatest for feedlot placemen...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Cattle Rally and Form Reversal
Once again, the big action in the ag futures markets was in the cattle markets, where futures hit new contract and all-time highs for the second straight d...
Cattle Markets Still Screwy
The cattle marketing year is off to a strange start. In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same pe...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.65/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&n...
‘Dirty 15’; Ukraine’s Ag Exports; WTO and National Security
‘Dirty 15’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump Administration may provide one unique number as the newly applied general tarif...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and Algeria are seeing swarms of desert locusts coming from Libya on current stron...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black S...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. M...
Budget Deal Made Just in Time
The House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate have both passed the full-year Continuing Appropriations Act, which would fund the government under a cont...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Harvest Progress and Crop Conditions Rain has slowed the corn harvest across much of Argentina’s central region, with progress advancing just 1...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egg shortages and rising prices are not just a feature of U.S. agriculture right now, German and northern European markets broadly are...
Deciphering Trump
The first 100 days of the second Trump presidency doesn’t end until 30 April and is a meaningless metric because Donald Trump’s initiatives wil...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week’s CFTC report showed some interesting an unexpected trends. First, despite the technical bounce in corn futures, funds cut 36 percent of th...
Market Commentary: Week of Turmoil, Uncertainty, but Not All Dark
There was little in terms of new fundamentals today, and on generally lower volume the board saw mixed trading and results. It was a big week for HRW as th...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nb...
CONAB Forecasts Record Soybean Production
Brazilian soybean farmers will reap an even bigger crop in the 2024/25 season than previously expected, according to forecasts released by the Brazilian cr...
Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again
The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good unti...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6525/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE
Historical red meat and poultry supply and use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions in slaughter, inventory, cold storage, and production data. Tota...
Oilseed Highlights: Trade Wars Continue to Drive Markets
The Market Of course, the big news in oilseed markets this past week has revolved around tariffs and retaliatory tariffs – most notably China a...
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts this year's total planted area to be higher than the previous y...
Tariff Waste; Changing the EU; Cost of Data; Fake Food Safety
Tariff Waste Now that Trump tariffs are going into full swing, the question is for what objective? The President says other countries treat America unfairl...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were mostly steady/higher last week, with the notable exception of beef packer margins. Beef processing profits fell $20/head la...
Markets Fall on WASDE and Trade War
Today’s March USDA WASDE report did nothing to temper the bearish mood in both commodity and equity markets. Volume was light ahead of the WASDE rele...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bus...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged from last month – and the season-average corn price received by farmers...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close...
Making Sense of the Economy
Q1 GDP growth is expected to be negative, per the Atlanta Fed “GDPNow.” Spending data is still generally positive through January, however, con...
Contextualizing the Scope of China’s Retaliatory Tariffs
The second Trump administration has roiled global markets in just its first few weeks in office, with some of the biggest impacts coming from the applicati...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s change in government wheat importation is said to have led to market confusi...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China&rs...
New Canadian Prime Minister Selected
Last night, Canada selected a new prime minister-elect, as Justin Trudeau's reign, since November 2015, comes to a close amid a trade war with the U.S. On...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month...
Small Ideas; Technical Barriers; Advice to DOGE
Small Ideas U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the objective is to reduce the role of the government. This makes sense considering the explosion in...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread &l...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent volatility in oilseed markets has caused the three legs of the U.S. soybean crush to see interesting and divergent dynamics in 2025. Soybean fut...
First Jobs Report of Trump Administration Released
Economists predicted that the number of jobs added last month would be 160,000 ahead of the employment report, however, the actual figure was lower than ex...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration ann...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Canada Cattle Market
New trade disruptions, such as the 25 percent tariffs on Canadian feeder cattle, could possibly lead to more cattle being kept on pasture in Canada, which...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...