The closure of the Mexican border to feeder cattle imports due to New World Screwworm (NWS) has led to a 17 percent increase in beef prices in Mexico and a...
Articles
Inflation Regime Changes and Commodity Market Outlooks
U.S. fiscal and monetary policy is at a crossroads, which is creating uncertainty for macroeconomic and commodity markets. Chief among these concerns is &l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Macro Malaise and Yield Expectations Turn CBOT Lower
The CBOT was almost entirely lower across the major ag markets on Wednesday with large supply expectations for the 2025 Northern Hemisphere grain and oilse...
Prop 12 Counterattack; Assault on International Organizations; Japan on Point
Prop 12 Counterattack To the great disappointment of key parts of the U.S. agriculture sector, the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that California&rs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 25 – 29 August 2025 Bearish sentiments prevail on the Russian market. Most likely the bottom price levels are near for most of...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the fourth straight week and once again added about $100/head in profits. Margins are now around $15/head, still low by po...
Market Commentary: Court Ruling Rattles Markets; Corn Rallies on Export Demand
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the holiday-shortened trading week with Friday’s ruling that President Trump’s tariffs may be illegal throw...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
SCO versus West
Instead of focusing on foes, the transatlantic alliance needs to remediate itself. Media reactions to this past weekend’s Shanghai Cooperation Counci...
Appellate Court Rules Against Tariffs; Credit Ratings Uncertain
On 28 May, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Econ...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Except for the CBOT futures market, global wheat values were lower last week as larger harvest expectations weighed on market sentiment...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia’s cereal production in 2025 has improved due to better rainfall, according t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
For the third straight week, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space...
Market Commentary: Caution About Supplies, Confidence in Demand
Although the soy complex and wheat opened lower, there was confidence in the corn number and by late morning most major contracts were in the green, aided...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 1 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives will...
Brazil Retaliation to U.S. Tariffs
The Foreign Ministry of Brazil notified the U.S. today that it has directed its trade body, Camex, to investigate whether it can retaliate against the 50 p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Identifying Mispricing in Ag Futures: Corn, Soybeans Offer Opportunity
Readers will likely be familiar with WPI’s work over the past month or so exploring mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. WPI’s wor...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets continued to strengthen this week, this time with the Supramax and Panamax sectors in the lead. Improved grain demand off the U.S...
Exceeding Expectations, Perhaps on a Thread
Commodity markets opened mostly in the red but managed a turnaround late in the session for corn, beans and wheat. There was not much fundamentally driving...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 15-21, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 579,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 12 percent from the previous wee...
U.S. and Canadian Livestock Inventories
Yesterday, NASS and Statistics Canada released the 1 July cattle inventory in the two countries. Combined, the inventory was 106.1 million head, which was...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Grains while Bulls Dominate Livestock, but will the Trends Hold?
Trade in ag futures was a tale of two cities, with grains sinking into the red while the livestock markets rallied to fresh highs. Grains and oilseeds saw...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Technology Impacts; Science and UPF’s; Perpetuating the Museum
Technology Impacts Technology is driving markets around the world, but not always in the same direction or with the same results. Today’s big story s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 18 – 22 August 2025 The market continues following a bearish trend, mostly related to the peak of the harvest campaign and a s...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Desp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3175/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Future of Tariffs
Some countries have reacted harshly to the tariffs imposed by President Trump, while other countries responded more mutedly or negotiated a settlement. Can...
New World Screwworm Human Case
The state of Maryland has reported the first human case of new world screwworm (NWS) in a person who travelled to an affected area. Reports vary citing bot...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Lebanon’s 2025 grain crops are expected to be much lower, as much as 25 percent lowe...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the third straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits on fresh record highs in the beef market. Margins are now a...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT as Markets Eye Yields, First Notice Day
Friday’s market fireworks faded a bit on Monday as traders took the opportunity to rest and reassess fundamentals. There were no particularly big new...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced only 1.3 percent this week, reaching 96 percent complete nationwide. The final stretch is always slower,...
Protectionists’ Spin; Transatlantic Spin; India’s New Bed
Protectionists’ Spin U.S. President Donald Trump is vilified for statements that his critics say are blatantly untrue, but he is not alone in trying...
Canada Exempts USMCA Products from Tariffs
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump had a telephone conversation last Thursday to discuss trade. By all accounts, the discussion was pr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space for the second straight week...
Cattle on Feed on August 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed totaled 10.9 million head on August 1, 2025 and was 2 percent below August 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1...
Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late su...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 10.9 million head, 98 percent of last year.&...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize markets falling back after their recent rally while Panamax and Supramax values continue to firm. The A...
Market Commentary: Market Wiggles on Pro Farmer, Weather and Demand
Yesterday’s grain and oilseed rally extended, for the most part, today. While wheat led the complex upward yesterday, today’s higher volume tra...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 8-14, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 519,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 28 percent from the previous week and...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Are Commodity Prices Ignoring Global Stocks?
WPI recently received a question from a client asking, in effect, if global crop prices have become immune – or at least less sensitive – to ch...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.04/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develo...
Rearranged Trade Impacts
U.S. tariffs are reordering world trade and may further impact the nation’s agricultural exports. While soybean exports to China are stalled as that...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 August 2025 During the second week of August, the market realized that harvesting produces all the grain the market ne...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and...
MAHA Draft Report Softens Pesticide Language
On 13 February President Trump signed Executive Order 14212 entitled “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission (MAHA)...
Weaponizing Trade; De-Weaponizing MAHA
Weaponizing Trade Using trade to influence geopolitical outcomes is not new but its use has intensified. While some might use the U.S. as the cause of its...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government purchased 3.93 MMT of local wheat from this year’s harvest...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the second straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits thanks to record highs in the beef market. Margins remain...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.065/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oil Cost and Input Forecast
According to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. petroleum production is forecast to hit 13.41 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 due prim...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to show good development across most of the country. While some areas remain affected by flooding, favo...
Negotiating Positions; Righteous Stand
Negotiating Positions Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is being joined in Washington today by EU leaders as they discuss with President Trump the nex...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Association of German Cooperatives (DRV) raised its forecast for the German grain harvest from 41.7 MMT to 43.0 MMT, up 10 percent from t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have f...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It w...
Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengt...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 1-7, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 722,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 2 percent from the previous wee...
Market Commentary: Another Day in a Sea of Red
After a three-day rally, the soybean complex drifted lower, wheat continued its bearish decline, and corn miraculously escaped another day of damage. ...
Livestock Roundup: WASDE Shows Protein Production Mostly Down
Red meat and poultry production total estimates were down for August in the latest WASDE report. Beef production for the year was estimated at 25.926 billi...