Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationw...
Articles
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Union has threatened Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia with legal action as the three nations have adopted unilateral bans on...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures mar...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two v...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell f...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promoti...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Preside...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the Whi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s...
No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities
No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 20–24 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained relatively stable with divergent regional trends. European Russia exhibi...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Ja...
Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math
Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-fr...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reportedly late in payment on a number of Ukraine wheat vessels – six that...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreem...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. ...
Minority Supplier; Trade “Agreements”
Minority Supplier Following negotiations with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects China to rev...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest is gaining momentum in northern Argentina, with yields exceeding expectations. In the northwest, yields range from 0.8–1.5 MT...
Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation
Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. T...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures mar...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&...
Trump’s Beef Market Fiasco: The Why and Wherefores of Market Fundamentals
As Matt Herrington and Gary Blumenthal covered Wednesday, Trump has announced big plans for the beef market (Market Commentary, Disconnected Beef) which we...
Forecasting 2026 Cattle Inventories: Beef and Dairy Herd Increases Expected
The cattle industry – and beef in particular – has been in the headlines more than usual this year with record-breaking prices for beef and cat...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were mixed and relatively quiet this week. The Capesize sector traded steady on flagging spot demand despite an increase in Chinese iron o...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been les...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. No...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Analysts’ Guesses
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report would normally be released tomorrow. It is suspended however due to the government shutdown. The question is whe...
What Are Funds Doing Now? Forecasting the Missing CFTC Data
One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report,...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Disconnected Beef
U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. T...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13–17 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish undertone, despite zero export duties and...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on...
Splitting Decision
Policymaking in democracies is hard and nowhere is that truer than in the multinational setting of the European Union. Belatedly, a larger construct of EU...
Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further n...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
16 October was World Bread Day, just in case you missed it. The European Commodity Exchange held in Berlin Germany last week was well attended with over 4,...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the sixth straight week and were negative for the third week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$217/head – down $100 o...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of P...
Ag Complexity; Some Get Disciplined; Vice Pays to Virtue
Ag Complexity President Trump hasn’t met a problem he doesn’t think he can solve, and that is a good thing, but it does run into the reality of...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess mo...
European Market Analysis
Regional News German and central European cattle values are starting to decline after their recent, multi-year rally. Slaughter cow values declined t...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of cou...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, an...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
With October and the fall calf run now officially here, the beef industry is getting its first look at the realized profitability of many cow-calf operatio...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were mixed this past week with paper values rising as the Chinese holiday ended, but physical values seeing little of the same enthusiasm...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks
Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was...
Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?
CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massiv...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed t...
Sorry Soy; Strategy for Generational Rebuttal
Sorry Soy Thomas Suddes, a reporter for The Plain Dealer cutely writes that Trump’s bubble-gum-and-twine trade “policy” has wrecked Ameri...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 6–10 October 2025 The Russian grains market showed mixed dynamics. While bearish sentiment persisted in the Asian regions and...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the fifth straight week and remained in negative territory for the second week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$118/head,...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals...
The Strange Effects of Screwworm
For the first six months of 2025, cattle imports from Mexico are down 73.1 percent due to restrictions from the discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in M...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Worse Before Better; Tech Rescue; Value Added
Worse Before Better First China announced restrictions on rare earth exports, then President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs and software restrictions...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and France have extended their cooperation program in agricultural and rural devel...