The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with the strength originating from the soybean market and spilling over into corn and soybeans. The soybean market d...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.15/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.48/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. ...
Weekend Reading Insights
Because the information superhighway is tl;dr, we did the work for you and summarized the most relevant. Economic Growth: It is not just the result of buil...
Perceived Rice Shortage
Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and...
Biden Drops Out 107 Days Before Election: What Now?
The 2024 election cycle has been unique from the outset, and it just got more so with President Joe Biden opting to step aside. This came after more than t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moistu...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia set a new record for wheat exports in MY 2023/24, with the country shipping 55.3 MMT of grain and accounting for 26.1 percent of...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment for oilseed and grain markets with managed money traders remaining ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week – How Low Can It Go
Trading opened today’s session mostly in the green, except for feeder cattle, but late in the session corn and the soybean complex turned lower. Nota...
Cattle on Feed Report: Inventory Up, Placements and Marketings Way Down
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Total inventory was up as expected, but a big drop in placements and a lower-than-expected volume of...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succin...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 5-11, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 578,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the pr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.05/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Spring Wheat Rallies on Dry Weather; Soybeans See Large New Crop Export Sales
The CBOT saw a mixed day of trade with corn and soybeans seeing pressure from favorable U.S. weather outlooks and large supply expectations. Soybeans manag...
Doubling Down on Protectionism; Conflicting CAP Goals
Doubling Down on Protectionism Typically, the party platforms crafted every four years by Republicans and Democrats are equally meaningless. Some of their...
Oilseed Highlights: Market Stabilizing, For Now
The Market November soybeans traded at a new intrasession contract low of 1031.75/bushel on Thursday, a four-year low, but then bounced back and closed at...
Livestock Roundup: Hog Pressures
Last week, WPI noted in a summer cattle market outlook that 14 percent of the cattle producing regions were in drought, compared to 38 percent last year, w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trends Continue; Ukraine’s Corn in Jeopardy
The CBOT saw generally quiet, steady trade at mid-week, but many players noted firmer undertones as futures stabilize or start to recover from deeply overs...
No Olive Branch; Farm Price Charade
No Olive Branch In 2018, the U.S. began imposing 30-44 percent antidumping and countervailing duties on ripe olives originating in Spain. The EU was aghast...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold tech...
Trump Picks JD Vance as Running Mate
On the eve of the Republican national nominating convention, Former President Trump has picked freshman Ohio Senator JD Vance, a one-time critic, to be his...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0875/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&n...
Food Security Angst; More Trade Agreements; Ag Regains EU Power
Food Security Angst Norway announced that it would spend $6 million a year for five years to build up a 60–75-thousand-ton grain reserve, or a three-...
Poultry Wins Meat Battle
The latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook plots the growth outlook to 2033 for the major animal proteins and with little surprise, poultry expands its lead...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan has banned the import of wheat and the export of wheat flour in...
Market Commentary: Bearishness Envelops CBOT Trade
The CBOT was sharply lower on Monday with markets seeing continued pressure from Friday’s generally bearish WASDE, favorable Midwest weather trends,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0425/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.325/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close.&...
WASDE Mid-Year Livestock and Poultry Forecasts
The July WASDE upped the projections for red meat production and trimmed the broiler forecast by 85 million pounds. The beef forecast is up on heavi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Weather Argentina has faced extreme cold across the country for several days with temperatures well below 0 degrees Celsius for many hou...
Farm Bill Reassessment; Von der Leyen Threads Needle; Trade Agreements are Dead
Farm Bill Reassessment The chance of reauthorizing the farm bill this year was already looking unlikely but now it has shifted that way for new reasons. A...
Sugar Volatility
It has been a volatile year for global sugar prices. They hit 27.95 cents/pound on 6 November 2023 – the highest since 1980. They fell 30 percent to...
Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Neutral Corn; Soybeans Fall on Demand Worries
CBOT futures had a relatively muted reaction to the USDA’s July WASDE as large U.S. and global new crop ending stocks damped much of any potential vo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.5075/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Fails to Stem Price Decline
The Market The USDA July WASDE was directionally bearish but not as much as expected. The trade initially turned higher after the report’s release bu...
SCOTUS Regulatory Ruling Already Having Impact
On 5 July, WPI reported that the recent Supreme Court decision on Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, which overturned the so-called “Chevron defer...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period June 28-July 4, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 240,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 primarily for Thailand (60...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double
Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went...
Livestock Roundup: Summer Cattle
The beef and cattle market is now past the milestone 4th of July holiday, between Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends that define the high demand season. B...
PRC GMO in USA; Food Aid Dependency; CFTC Musical Chairs
PRC GMO in USA Members of Congress on the House Select Committee on China are furious at USDA for moving forward with approval of a biotech soybean develop...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Bulls Don’t Dare Challenge CBOT Bears
Bears once again dominated trade at the CBOT on Wednesday with a favorable U.S. weather forecast and somewhat surprisingly cheap wheat from Russia proving...
U.S. Talk Representative; EUDR Expansion; Hungary Tanks Innovation; Russia Bolsters CAP
U.S. Talk Representative The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) that grants duty free access to products from poorer countries expired almost four yea...
Geopolitical Trade Substitution
Historically, Canada has been the fourth largest producer of green peas and the largest exporter of the product. Canada’s global market share for the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0725/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.615/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop for...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Stabilize while Soy Complex, Livestock Collapse Further
Trade at the CBOT was highly mixed across the different market categories Tuesday with grains (corn and wheat) seeing mild gains and signs of pre-WASDE sta...
Trade Barriers or Facilitation; Ag Rises in EU; Biden Regs
Trade Barriers or Facilitiation The WTO reported that its monitoring of various countries evidences that members are introducing more trade-facilitating po...
Wheat Supplies and Price Both Falling
Global wheat ending stocks have been persistently falling now for five years. Ordinarily, price and carryover supplies move inversely but the price of whea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.085/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.72/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Regulatory Agenda for 2024
The Administration has released its regulatory agenda for the rest of 2024. The agenda is a public notice process that details agencies’ work on prop...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report d...
Capital Investment and Productivity
While much of the focus on Europe relates to political instability in the EU, and threats from Russia, there are ample economic issues that also need to be...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the...
Dairy is Trading Despite Headwinds
U.S. dairy exporters have kept product moving despite a strong dollar and softer global demand. Prices for dairy have moved higher and are expected to stay...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Ag Appropriations Overview
Congress is back in session after the 4th of July Independence Day holiday break. But there are only 12 days on the legislative calendar for the month; the...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat planting slowed last week, and farmers only seeded any additional 4 percent of the estimated area. The main reasons are t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe saw mixed weather trends last week with showers in western Europe, Scandinavia, and the Balkans. Ukraine received little to no r...
Market Commentary: Lower Volume, Soyoil Spikes, and Short Covering
Volume was expected to be light today given yesterday’s holiday and a weekend ahead. And it was low for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 21-27, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 805,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 primarily for Mexico (154,700 MT), the Phi...
Oilseed Highlights: Soyoil Drives Reversal for Soybeans, But Not Soymeal
The Market After hitting a four-year low last week, November soybeans reversed course this week, adding 25.75 cents (2.33 percent) to end at 1129.75/...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
New Paradigm for Regulatory Policy?
On 28 June, the Supreme Court issued its decision in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (Secretary of Commerce) case, which could have significant impact...
U.S. July Fourth Holiday
Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow, Thursday, 4 July 2024 in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resu...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower
Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade...
Transatlantic Monopsonists; Ex-Im Battle Continues
Transatlantic Monopsonists The three coalition partners (EPP, S&D, Renew) set to continue running the EU cannot agree on a sustainability agenda since...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pr...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher Again; Cattle Find Pre-Holiday Support
Once again, the excitement at the CBOT was dominated by soyoil, which posted its fifth straight higher close amid rising trade tensions between Indonesia a...
Corn for Cars; Squeezed Between Two Labors
Corn for Cars Incoming Mexican agriculture minister Julio Berdegue said his country’s new government will not reduce imports of (GMO) yellow corn, bu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2125/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.81/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&nb...
FMMO Proposal Released by USDA
Yesterday, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released its proposed changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) from the hearing proc...
Corn Basis Pressure Points
Last week’s USDA Quarterly Stocks report revealed that farmers are holding 36 percent more corn in on-farm storage than a year earlier. One rule of t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.205/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.9025/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?
CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout th...
Summary of Weekend Reads
Back by popular demand. Hang on to your seat, this is a whirlwind review of this past summer weekend’s beach reads. Taxes: One of former President Do...
Misalignment of Land and Labor
U.S. fruit and vegetable growers made their annual trek to Capitol Hill but instead of their usual gift of a full box of fresh produce for the Members of C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Projections made by NOAA on 20 June for the rest of the year show, for the third consecutive month, a decrease in the predicted cooling of the sea...