USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Once again, placements surprised to the upside compared to pre-report analysts’ consensus expectatio...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6475/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&...
WPI Quarterly Grain Balance Sheet Forecasts
The latest updates and model runs from WPI’s grain balance sheet and pricing forecasts show that corn and wheat are likely to see stronger-than-expected de...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 8-14, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 549,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 45 percent from the previous we...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Fall on Export Data
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex finding their way into the red for various reasons. Wheat initially rall...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
The monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 100 percent...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.695/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oilseed Highlights: Continued Pressure from South America and Policy Uncertainties
The MarketDespite a decent USDA Export Sales report, the market continues to be weighed down by the large developing South American soybean crop. Soybean p...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volume...
Turkey is a Turkey
And we don’t mean Türkiye. Turkey can mean unsuccessful and the production and trade in the domesticated large bird called the turkey leaves much to be des...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.525/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. J...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 November 2024Russian Union of Grain producers and exporters announced that winter wheat area for 2025/26 may drop to 15.4 Mh...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on th...
Farm Bill Deficiencies; Transatlantic Tensions; GMO Correction
Farm Bill DeficienciesU.S. Senate Democrats have finally laid down their marker in a bicameral negotiation over a farm bill renewal. In it, Democrats conce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.4975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONEgypt’s strategic wheat reserves are at 4.6 months. This is a little lower than usual due to dela...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock margins continue to be characterized by weakness in the packing sector and strength in producer profitability. Last week, both beef and pork pack...
Agriculture Committees in the 119th Congress
With the Republicans maintaining control of the House, Representative G.T. Thompson (R-PA) will retain the gavel as committee chairman, unless he is nomina...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina is progressing at a steady pace. Last week, the harvested area share increased by 5 percentage points, bringing t...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Ukraine War Developments, Fund Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with markets reacting to Friday’s CFTC data as well as news that will impact the Ukraine-Russia war. First, th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.4725/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
RFK, Jr. Equals Opportunity; Quarter Century of GMO’s
RFK, Jr. Equals OpportunityRobert F. Kennedy, Jr. wants to eliminate processed foods, artificial colorings, chemicals, and other broadly named boogeymen. H...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the European Parliament voted on the EUDR regulation and officially delayed the full implementation of the ruling until Decem...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into...
Market Commentary: Today was Green but Headwinds for the Week
Corn, soymeal, live cattle and lean hogs all traded lower during the morning start but by the end of the day, only lean hogs ended lower. There were modest...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 1-7, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 380,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 1 percent from the previous week...
Cow-Calf Margins Steady in November, Herd Expansion Still Likely
Despite recent decreases in feeder cattle futures and rising feedstuff costs, estimated cow-calf producer margins are largely unchanged from WPI’s October...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan...
McSustainability Through Feed Efficiency
McDonalds has entered the sustainability space by partnering with Syngenta and paying cattle producers to use Syngenta’s Enogen Trait corn to improve feed...
Livestock Roundup: Turkey Production Adjusted Down
Turkey production in August totaled 434.7 million pounds, slightly above July production but down 11 percent year-over-year. August slaughter was down 15 p...
Market Commentary: Biofuel and Trade Policy Worries Pressure CBOT along with Dollar Strength
The CBOT saw another day of pronounced weakness with expectations for larger global soybean and wheat production and stocks in 2025 weighing on values. Pro...
Oilseed Highlights: Multi-Bearish Factors
The MarketThe January soybean contract has been sliding all week and despite support at the 20-day moving average of $10.01/ST, it closed today below $10/b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price an...
EU Studies Trading Houses
As part of its witch hunt for unfair market practices, the EU Parliament’s AGRI Committee requested a study of the major agricultural commodity trading com...
USA Gone Nuts
While oilseeds receive much of the attention, tree nuts, which are technically a seed and containing oil, have gone even more gangbusters for U.S. producer...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in n...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid b...
Cuban Pipedream
Some in the U.S. agriculture community have spent years trying to improve sales to Cuba, which have increased though from a very small base. Now there is e...
Trump’s Tariff Plan; Whither Europe; RTO Beats WFH
Trump’s Tariff PlanFew things attract more speculation than how President-Elect Donald Trump will model his plan to increase tariffs on imports. Some econo...
Political Landscape Taking Shape
After the 2024 elections, the Republicans look to have taken control of Congress, along with a Trump victory, providing a Republican triple sweep. The Sena...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close.&n...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – cri...
Livestock Industry Margins
WPI is excited to present the latest edition of our newest data-driven publication Ag Perspectives Quant: U.S. Livestock Industry Profit Margins. This repo...
Market Commentary: CBOT Slips as Demand Worries Overtake Supply-Side Surprises
The November WASDE offered mixed influences for the major ag markets with USDA making surprise cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean crops and ending stocks, w...
Deep Bench to Fight RFK; China Market Risk; Thankless Job
Deep Bench to Fight RFKBeing the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture is usually a pretty good job. It involves doling out billions of dollars, the constituency i...
Rice as a Stable Crop
Last year, India restricted non-Basmati rice exports believing there would be a weather-related short supply. Production was ample and now the country face...
Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation
As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Ja...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing qui...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. A...
Market Commentary: Somewhat Tumultuous WASDE
The November WASDE report usually involves some tweaking of the numbers by USDA, and that is all it mostly was today, but with some quirky impacts. First,...
Who Might Be the Next Ag Secretary?
As most Presidents-elect do, former President and President-elect Donald Trump has named his new White House Chief of Staff as his first appointment. It is...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bu...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average c...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up...
WPI 2025 Hog and Pork Outlook
U.S. hog producers saw a mixed year in 2024 with early-year prices bringing poor profitability while the dramatic hog rally since the summer has lifted fin...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Rally on Export Numbers; Cattle Gain on Macro Strength
The CBOT was mixed on Thursday following the news of Donald Trump’s election to President of the United States with markets, particularly corn and cattle f...
Transatlantic Trade War; Traders Beat Pollsters; Transatlantic Lesson
Transatlantic Trade WarU.S. equity markets rose yesterday on news of Donald Trump’s victory, while shares in Europe fell. The EU is America’s biggest tradi...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Overview
Little to no action has been reported in the cash markets and asking prices are back at $190/cwt and higher. Cattle supply numbers are tighter in the south...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 25-31, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 374,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 9 percent from the previous week an...
Oilseed Highlights: On an Upswing
The MarketThe January soybean contract is up 3.2 percent on the week and has is now up 3.5 percent from its late October low at 979/bushel, but it is still...
Market Commentary: Mild Election Impacts
Outside markets closed higher and the dollar was up, but not because of bullishness over Mr. Trump’s victory. The business sector likes his pledge for lowe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
The Day After
The political establishment in Washington is stunned following yesterday's rout by Donald Trump and the Republicans. The Democrats’ arch nemesis not only s...
WPI Preliminary 2025 Acreage Forecasts
The polling for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election had significant forecast errors and history will likely judge the numbers as “wrong”. While it’s hard t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories...
Market Commentary: Election Day Brings CBOT Gains
It’s election day in the U.S. and the nation will decide on new leadership for the White House and Congress, though results may not be available for days o...
Tax Policy Outlook Post Election
After the votes are fully counted, as a new Administration forms, and Congress organizes, WPI will take a deeper look into the policy implications of today...
EU Confirmation Hearings; Japanese Independence; Lemonades out of Lemons; Border War
EU Confirmation HearingsIn a few months, it will be the turn of either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris’s cabinet nominees to seek confirmation by the legisla...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Ja...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first ship...
Livestock Industry Margins
WPI is excited to present the second edition of our newest data-driven publication Ag Perspectives Quant: U.S. Livestock Industry Profit Margins. This repo...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves...
Renewable Fuel Policy Outlook in 2025
Tomorrow is election day; the make-up of Congress and who is in the White House is expected to have an impact on renewable fuel policy in 2025. As a genera...
Transatlantic Inverse; Farm Bill Chances
Transatlantic InverseDepending on tomorrow’s election outcome, American businesses will either be saddled with more taxes, regulations, and attacks on cons...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6875/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. J...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall is...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their ne...