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MAHA: More Pulses? Does it Matter?

The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, spearheaded by the Secretary of Health and Human Services Department includes a lot of transformational goa...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders continuing to oscillate between slightly bullish and slightly bearish thinking. The past several we...

Market Commentary: Good Weather Trumps Demand

Markets opened today pretty much where they ended in the overnight and pretty much stayed that way all day, which is to say in the red. And it did so prett...

Bullish Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed Reports

USDA released two key reports on the cattle market today, the Cattle on Feed report and the July Cattle Inventory report.  The Cattle Inventory report...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&...

Cattle on Feed for July 1, 2025

U.S. Cattle on Feed is down 2 percent annually at 11.1 million head on July 1, 2025.  Placements in June totaled 1.44 million head, 8 percent below 20...

WPI Transportation Report

Dy Bulk Markets  Again this week, the bullish story is the rapid rise in Capesize vessel freight values with demand for Australian iron ore driving mo...

Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday but Friday is Another Day

Today’s trading opened with a head scratcher after USDA reported 135 KMT of U.S. corn sold to China. There isn’t any corn import demand in Chin...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for July 11-17, 2025  Wheat: Net sales of 712,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 44 percent from the previous week...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...

Further Identification of Mispricing in Ag Futures

WPI offers the following analysis as a continuation of last week’s work examining mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. Readers may recal...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow, along with the biannual July Cattle Inventory report for the first time in two years...

Market Commentary: Trade Deal News Fails to Excite Ag Markets

The CBOT tried to rally early on Wednesday after traders had the opportunity to react to the U.S.-Japan trade deal, but a lack of details left markets wond...

15 Percent and Certainty; Purity Tests; Cherry Picking Cherries

15 Percent and Certainty The U.S. trade agreement with Japan announced late yesterday was likely Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s final act. Financial...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 July 2025 The new 2025/26 season export market is the driving force behind pricing patterns asking for more goods at t...

Market Commentary: Weather Premia Withdrawn; Trade Talks Make Progress

CBOT futures saw mixed trade Tuesday with summer row crops pulling back amid a favorable Midwest weather forecast while wheat turned higher on slow sales f...

Ready for War; Deals Trickly In

Ready for War Europe has not won a kinetic war without U.S. help, but one German official quoted by the Wall Street Journal boasted, “If they [U.S.]...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Egg Report Analysis

The July CPI showed that retail egg prices have steadily dropped this year, down 7.4 percent from June, but still remain 27.3 percent higher than last year...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region A BRICS spokesman said that in light of the consolidation of companies in the grain trade,...

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins fell over $100/head for the second straight week to hit - $151/head, which is among the worst margins in the past decade. The culprit f...

Market Commentary: Grains and Livestock Take Diverging Paths

Grain and oilseed markets pulled back to start the week after favorable showers fell across the U.S. over the weekend. The moisture revived crop prospects...

Ten Days and Counting

Outside markets are counting on trade deals or another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) come 1 August. Since the 7 July announcement of the small window to...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&n...

Tariffs Rock Japan’s Election: Rice, Oil, and Autos

Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to stay on as Prime Minister despite his coalition government losing its majority in the upper house afte...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Export  Taxes The topic of export taxes continues to spark debate in Argentina, particularly soybean taxes. The return to a 33 percent rate for soybea...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money shifting into a slightly more bearish stance in the ag space as they added 25,490 contacts (37 percent) to...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Market Commentary: Mostly a Green Finish of a Bullish Week

The market was green across the board in grain and oilseed in the overnight and mostly finished that way in the day session except for soyoil, where profit...

Strong Retail Sales Report and Inflation Outlook

The June retail sales report beat consensus expectations, rising 0.6 percent. Moreover, it was a strong report, with 10 out of 13 of the sales categories i...

WPI Transportation Report

Dry Bulk Markets The Capesize market is up more than 80 percent from last week’s report due to greatly improved iron ore demand in the Atlantic. Ther...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for July 4-10, 2025.  Wheat: Net sales of 494,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 13 percent from the previous wee...

Market Commentary: Quirky Day in a Quirky Week

It was a somewhat quirky day as grains took their lumps and soyoil supported beans. There was a new contract low in HRW, low volume trading corn and livest...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Identifying Mispricing Opportunities in Ag Futures

In many ways, human nature is fascinated with the future – predicting what will and what could be and formulating plans accordingly. This is one fact...

Livestock Roundup: July WASDE Beef Forecast Update

Per USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory report, the total number of cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 January was at its lowest point in more than 70...

Market Commentary: Three-Factor Rally for Soy Complex; Corn Extends Gains

Overnight trade saw short covering and corrective trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat but only the former two markets were able to hold their gains. Soybean...

Ups and Downs in EU AG; Brazil Targeted

Ups and Downs in EU AG Farmers in Europe cannot catch a break. For years they were they toast of the EU with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) garnering...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 July 2025 The export market is drawing all the attention and in the southern (export oriented) regions of Russia, deman...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Trade War Dynamics

First quarter global merchandise trade accelerated faster than expected as everyone expedited purchases ahead of tariffs and potential slowing of import de...

Consumer Price Index and Employment Reports

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the June CPI this morning. The CPI increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after rising...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s annual inflation level is at 14.4 percent in the latest month, down from 16...

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins abandoned their two-week streak of positive numbers and fell $102/head last week to -$47. The move was expected as the Choice cutout wa...

Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal while Soy, Wheat Slip Lower

Monday’s trade at the CBOT was interesting with corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallying off fresh contract or selloff lows overnight, but only corn ho...

States’ Rights and Hypocrisy; Purple Hair, Not Purple Food

States’ Rights and Hypocrisy Texas has become the seventh state to prohibit food products cultured from animal cells. Another half dozen states are c...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat  Argentina’s wheat planting is entering its final stage after a weekly advance of 12.7 percentage points at the national level, now coveri...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  President Trump announced 30 percent tariffs on imports from the EU effective 1 August even as the EU and U.S. trade negotiations conti...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money surprisingly shifting into a more bullish stance across the ag space, though still retaining a small net sh...

Market Commentary: Bears Resist WASDE Curveballs

U.S. crop growing weather looks near perfect. Even dry parts of Nebraska and northern Illinois have just received good relief rains. The rest of July is co...

WASDE Soybeans - July 2025

USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for increased ending stocks compared to last month: U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 was raised 50 millio...

WASDE Corn - July 2025

USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. corn is a reduction in ending stocks from the June estimate of 1.75 billion bushels to 1.66 billion bushels. U.S. c...

Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices

Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs,...

WASDE Wheat - July 2025

USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. whe...

Hog and Pork Prices Set to Decline in Last-Half 2025

Lean hog futures surged to new contract highs over the past several weeks, followed by a correction in values that remains ongoing. Despite strong pork dem...

AP Quant: WASDE Wheat

WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...

AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans

WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...

AP Quant: WASDE Corn

WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&n...

WPI Transportation Report

Dry Bulk  Dry bulk markets continue to see diverging trends with the Capesize sector suffering under slack demand for iron ore, coal, and bauxite whil...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for June 27-July 3, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 567,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were primarily for South Korea (90,000 MT),...

Market Commentary: Mostly Higher Ahead of Tomorrow’s WASDE

Wheat spent the session mostly higher while corn, soybeans, and soymeal bounced around treading lower but eking out gains later in the action. Part of this...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.545/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close.  N...

Livestock Roundup: Feds Sue California over Eggs

Yesterday, the federal government filed suit against California over Proposition 12’s effects on egg prices under the Egg Products Inspection Act of...

WPI 20225/26 Grain Outlook: Supplies Outpace Demand Growth

Heading into the USDA’s July WASDE report on Friday, WPI offers our outlook on the 2025/26 U.S. grain balance sheets and the season-average price. Th...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Trump’s Realpolitik; Tariff Reality; Farmer Gerontology

Trump’s Realpolitik Peter Thiel and others have said they backed Mr. Trump for the presidency not as ideal governance, but as a disruptor of a stagna...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 30 June – 4 July 2025 During the first week of the new season 2025/26, seasonal price depreciation continued, however, delayed...

Market Commentary: Corn Hits New Lows while Cattle Hit New Highs

Grains markets came under pressure again on Tuesday with USDA’s positive Crop Conditions report Monday evening reassuring traders and analysts of exc...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1425/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close...

Tariffs and Geopolitics

Reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies are notably different for each country and are evolving. A Pew survey shows that 59 percent...

Trump Tariff Letters Issued

Over the weekend and yesterday, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries proposing new blanket rate tariffs to go into effect on 1 August unless a trad...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria reports that the wheat collected in the North/East region since 5 June is at 282,000...

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins were positive for the second straight week with holiday grilling demand supporting the beef market and packer profits. Packers have don...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders shifting from a neutral to a more bearish sentiment across the ag space. Funds added 63,000...

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close...

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