The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. Ther...
Articles
U.S. – Brazil Dialogue; Tone Deaf in Europe
U.S. – Brazil Dialogue The 22nd Plenary of the U.S. – Brazil Commercial Dialogue will be held in September to discuss reducing non-tariff barri...
Egypt Needs Wheat
Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 470 KMT of wheat today. It will come from four countries: Romania, France, Ukraine,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5825/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Six Weeks to Register for 2025 45Z Tax Credit, Still No Final Rules However
Yesterday, the Treasury Department released its Initial Guidance on registration for the Clean Fuel Production tax credit known as Section 45Z. To qualify...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s government has decided to increase the price of subsidized...
Market Commentary: Shifting Weather Implies Sideways Wheat Trade, Lower Outlook for Corn, Soy
The CBOT was almost strictly lower to start the new month with corn and soybeans leading the way on expectations (that were proved correct) of strong plant...
From Weekend Reading
In addition to attacking China, populist politicians on both the American right and left are finding audience encouragement when they attack big companies...
No Mimosas
Brazil produces more than a third of the world’s oranges and controls 70 percent of global exports. This drought, plus disease and other issues has c...
Mexico: New President, Mostly Same Policies
Mexico’s Presidential election was held this weekend; the Mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, won an overwhelming majority. President-ele...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.7275/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission imposed an import tax on Russian wheat, corn, products derived from their processing, and feed. The duties range from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Determining how much wheat will be planted in Argentina is difficult. Production margins have gone from very bad to very good, thereby encourag...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: Markets Enter May like a Lion, Leave as a Lamb
Usually, it’s the month of March that comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb, but commodity markets chose to follow that pattern in May, which c...
Potential Q4 2024 Port Strike Impact on Containerized Grain Exports
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) faces a contract expiration on 30 September, now only four months away. The union has signaled its...
Oilseed Highlights: Coproduct Swap on a Bearish Week
The Market The trade shook off earlier concerns about Brazilian flooding and instead focused this week on the good start to the U.S. soybean crop, and Arge...
Friday Policy Roundup
Brussels versus Beijing: Beijing may launch an investigation into whether the EU is dumping pork into China. Brussels opened an anti-dumping probe on vanil...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.785/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 17-23, 2024. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 60,900 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably...
Market Commentary: Pigs Fly, the Rest Swim
The market open is very telltale about the trade’s beliefs. It can open hard and fast in one direction or another, or it can move in small increments...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.81/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&n...
Livestock Roundup: China Beef Market
China has just banned beef exports from the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado over ractopamine. A shipment of frozen omasum (the third stomach in a ruminant a...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Move to Trading Range Lows; Wheat Falls on Black Sea Rain
Ag commodity futures were almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure stemming from multiple sources, including better-than-expected U.S. planting pr...
Where are the Veggies?
As noted yesterday, USDA estimates that the food category incurring the most inflation this year in the U.S. will be fresh vegetables. Part of the problem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5525/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.9275/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 May 2024 Crop Outlook Russian weather, particularly spring frosts, became an important factor in estimating the potentia...
Market Commentary: Wheat Bulls Remain Relentless; U.S. Farmers Make Strong Planting Progress
Overnight volume was strong at the CBOT with traders eager to get back to work following a weekend of reductions in the Black Sea crop forecast(s). Several...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $7.0025/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Whither U.S. Trade Policy
May is World Trade Month and President Biden declared last week World Trade Week. USDA described it as the perfect opportunity to highlight the importance...
Food Price Improvements
USDA’s Economic Research Service issued its updated forecast for food-related inflation in 2024 and for the most part it involves good news. Year-to-...
House Farm Bill Out of Committee “Splits the Farm Bill Coalition”
As WPI reported, the House Agriculture Committee marked-up the farm bill last Thursday, 23 May. Going into the mark-up, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said the...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of importing wheat from Zi...
Cattle on Feed
USDA reports U.S. Cattle on Feed is down one percent for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.6 million on May 1, 2024. Placement...
Market Commentary: Weather Continues to Drive CBOT Strength; Meat Stocks Tighten Further
Ag commodity futures were firmer to end the week with traders looking ahead to challenging weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and South Amer...
Memorial Day
U.S. financial markets are closed on Monday, 27 May and consequently there will be no Ag Perspectives report on that day. WPI's analysis reports will resum...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The big surprise in this week’s CFTC report was the expansion of funds’ short position in corn by over 54,000 contracts. Funds had been aggress...
Oilseed Highlights: Bonus Week for Soybeans
The Market For the week, July soybeans rose 20 cents (1.6 percent) to 1248/bushel. The November soybean contract added 16.25 cents. U.S. soybean futures we...
Cattle on Feed Report: Marketings Up on More Days in April
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The numbers came in very close to the pre-report expectations, making the report neural. Placements...
Friday Policy Shorts
Standards not Tariffs: The complaint against China and some other countries is that production practices are more highly distorted by government policies t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6475/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.9725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 10-16, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 17,900 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 77 percent from the p...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Corn Still Strong; Soy Complex Waivers
Corn traded mostly higher all session and has gained value in three of the past four days. The soy complex was higher in the overnight session and opened t...
Senate Would Reject Obama; Europe Lives on Crisps
Senate Would Reject Obama President Biden has withdrawn his nominee to become the Deputy U.S. Trade Representative, Nelson Cunningham. Cunningham has stell...
Livestock Roundup: COF Preview and Farm Bill Provisions
Cattle on Feed Report USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattl...
Market Commentary: Wheat Looks Toppy while Soybeans Rise on Chinese Buying
The big development at the CBOT on Wednesday was the lower close and apparent “hook reversal” in wheat futures, which initially traded higher b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.93/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Trade and Commerce Divide; Genetic Divide
Trade and Commerce Divide Populist Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro (D-Connecticut) wants her Democratic colleagues to undermine corporate America by disrupting...
Sunflower on Edge
Global sunflower seed production is only about one-seventh as large as soybean output, but it has surprisingly continued on a similar trend in supply despi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 May 2024 Crop Outlook As of mid-May, Russia farmers planted 24.8 Mha of spring crops which is 44.5 percent of the foreca...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New Highs on Smaller Russian Crop; Corn, Soy Fall on Planting Progress
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and the soy complex finding pressure after Monday’s Crop Progress report reflected better-than-expected plant...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.58/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.975/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. ...
Banking Committee Looking at Food Prices and Corporate Greed
The Senate Banking Committee’s subcommittee on Economic Policy will be holding a hearing tomorrow entitled "Protecting Consumers’ Pocketbooks:...
Breaking Eggs with Poor Math
Activists have been pressuring the Biden Administration to take more action against Big Ag. The latest is an attack on egg production. Opponents are blamin...
Status of Global Ag
USDA’s Economic Research Service has produced an expansive study entitled, World Agricultural Production, Resource Use, and Productivity, 1961–...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) hopes to reach an agreemen...
Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans
Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging...
Ultra-Processed Dog Food; Antidumping is Legal
Ultra-Processed Dog Food The number of pets spiked during COVID but the overall trend has been more domestic animals and fewer human babies. Pets are lower...
House Farm Bill Draft: Conservation and Trade
Last week on Friday 17 May, WPI outlined the commodity program proposals in the House farm bill draft. Below are some key changes in the conservation and t...
Bye Bye Black Sheep
New Zealand famously is a country with more sheep than people, but the competition is slipping in favor of humans. The problem is the economics of wool, wh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, up $0.375 from yesterday's close. ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s agriculture ministry announced that 900,000 hectares of crops will need to be reseeded this year after several frosts/fr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, slower than WPI expected. It currently spans 25 percent of the area, which implies...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5125/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseeds Highlights: Defying the Odds
The Market Despite worries about used cooking oil imports, slow exports, and a drop in the NOPA crush, July soybeans closed the week up 9 cents (0.73 perce...
House Farm Bill Draft Commodity Program Proposals
As we reported Monday, 13 May, the full draft of the House Agriculture Committee’s farm bill was expected to be released today, and it was. Following...
Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market
There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly highe...
Livestock Roundup: Pork Demand Rebound
Going into the summer, a big question for meat has been: how will consumer demand hold up? This is especially the case with steadily increasing beef prices...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.6325/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nb...
China Retaliation?; WTO Dispute System Not Urgent
China Retaliation? The assumption is that China will retaliate against U.S. agriculture for any new tariffs applied to Chinese goods by President Biden und...
Market Commentary: CBOT Pauses and Drifts Lower; NOPA Crush Disappoints; Energies Rally as Inflation Eases
The CBOT started out firm again in the overnight session but quickly turned lower once the day session started. The reason seemed to be “sell the fac...
Transatlantic Glue
China understandably responded harshly to the Biden Administration’s sharp increase in tariffs on EV’s and components. However, there is not mu...
Brazil Leans into Meat
Over the past decade, Brazilian corn production has grown faster than its output of animal protein, but that may be changing. Brazil’s corn productio...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 May 2024 This year’s spring weather in Russia is abnormal; last week frost was registered across European Russia ra...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during t...
Tariffs: UCO No, Phosphate Yes
The Biden Administration just announced higher Section 301 tariffs on a host of imports from China, after the statutory four-year review of those duties im...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.725/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Tariff Man’s Competitor; Europe Correctly Fears Trump
Tariff Man’s Competitor Former President Donald Trump prided himself on his use of tariffs, which candidate Biden criticized but now President Biden...
Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan
U.S. agriculture representatives returning from a trade mission to India are all excited about their prospects for boosting sales to the world’s most...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on th...
Market Commentary: Wheat Still Leads CBOT Rally; Frost/Freeze Threatens Russian Wheat Crop
In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerne...
More Details, More Conflicts on Farm Bill
The slow roll of the details of the farm bill continues. On Friday, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) released a title-b...
Psychobiotic Nonsense; SPS/TBT and Poultry
Psychobiotic Nonsense One component of a book called The Psychobiotic Revolution is scientifically reasonable – that the human gut biome contains tri...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.87/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. ...
Milking Future Demand
U.S. and Mexican dairy industry representatives met and renewed their commitment to “collaborate and advocate for mutually beneficial dairy policies...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Frosts in Russia’s central, southern, and Volga regions have halted spring planting efforts, which will likely contribute to lowe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major flood...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bush...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six per...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6975/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.26 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads WASDE-Defying CBOT Rally
The CBOT was higher heading into Friday’s May WASDE report from the USDA with weather and production concerns in various parts of the globe driving f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The surprise in this week’s CFTC report is that – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline - funds were more aggressive covering grain/o...
Oilseed Highlights: Not Much Ado About Something
The Market After hitting a new contract low yesterday, the trade took July soyoil up nearly 2 cents today and closed out the week with a 3.1 percent rise t...