Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.895/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. No...
Articles
Livestock Roundup: A Look at Cattle Herd Rebuilding
As WPI reported yesterday, the total supply of beef per capita is up this year over last based on imports and heavier slaughter weights; both are related t...
Oilseed Highlights: Under Pressure but Hovering
The MarketToday’s IGC report increased the growth in global soybean carryout and thus reinforced the bearish trend in the November futures contract. There...
State Control of Markets – Russia; State Control of Markets – U.S
State Control of MarketsRussia’s agriculture ministry recently “suggested” that grain exporters not sell wheat internationally below the minimum price of $...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.85/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. No...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations co...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Mi...
Asymmetric on Tariffs
Most economists are clear in describing tariffs as a border tax. Their impacts include increasing costs on consumers and reducing trade, and thus self-harm...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due...
Planned Website Downtime Wednesday, 16 October
WPI is completing a series of upgrades to our website that will require about 50 minutes of downtime on Wednesday, 16 October starting at 12:00 PM EDT. The...
Red Meat and Poultry Situation
As WPI reported last week, the October WASDE increased its projection for beef production by 205 million pounds on higher slaughter and heavier carcass wei...
Farm Subsidies on the March
Subsidies can increase output and there are many ways to subsidize an industry, but that doesn’t mean that countries should do it. Cost o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and appar...
Politics: Will 2024 Election Yield an Unprecedented Triple Flip?
The 2024 election is three weeks from tomorrow. This cycle has been unusual. The campaign started as a Biden versus Trump rematch of the 2020 campaign, the...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trad...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and norther...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close...
Going up with a Bang
A futures contract that persistently moves up or down by just a penny or two each day imposes its own burden on the market. While speculators are said to p...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitm...
WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...
WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...
WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive comp...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. N...
WASDE Outlook for Livestock: More Beef
Today’s WASDE increased the price outlook for 2024 fed steers after dropping it in September. The September WASDE dropped the fed steer price b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&...
Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall
At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an out...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia...
Oilseed Highlights: Pre-WASDE but Relatively Firm
The Market The soybean market has been sliding heading into tomorrow USDA October WASDE report. The trade has positioned itself in the middle of the Septem...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Red Meat Exports
August trade data was released yesterday. High prices of U.S. beef exports have kept exports down. Compared to August 2023, total exports were 102,682 MT,...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trades Weather and WASDE Expectations
Trade at the CBOT on Wednesday was dominated by two factors: global weather and preparations for the October WASDE report, which will come out on Friday. T...
Policy Potpourri
Good Many Organisms: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded this week to scientists at Google DeepMind using AI to predict the structure of proteins and...
Say Cheese!
Ilena Peng from Bloomberg has written about the expansion of U.S. cheese exports. Former French President Charles de Gaulle once noted that his country has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soy...
War on Food Companies; Holding Back the Future
War on Food Companies Market skeptics like U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) have stepped up their attack on food companies by accusing them...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&...
USDA Announces Cattle Price Discovery Rule
Today, the Biden Administration issued an Advanced Notice of Public Rulemaking (ANPR) on Price Discovery and Transparency in Markets for Fed Cattle. This i...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsid...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. Ho...
Allowing Private Contributions to Conservation Programs to Create Public Assets
USDA’s Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) closed the comment period for the implementing rules for the Sponsoring USDA Sustainability Targe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the r...
2024/25 Corn Outlook: Strong Demand Shifts Prices Higher
In light of the surprisingly bullish Grain Stocks data, WPI has updated our quarterly corn market outlook to reflect the supply and demand trends reflected...
Market Commentary: Next Week’s Weather Makes or Breaks
It was another day lower for the grain and oilseeds sectors, and another day of weak volume for corn and the soy sector. The causes have not changed: A st...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent strength in U.S. soyoil and soymeal prices has helped push “board” crush margin (i.e., the margin implied or calculated by CBOT futu...
Port Strike Suspended: A Look at Short-Term and Long-Term Issues
East and Gulf Coast port workers are back on the job today after striking on 1 October. Many of the affected ports will add weekend overtime hours to load...
WPI Website Restored
Apologies to those that had trouble accessing WPI's website and analysis articles. Service has now been restored. Please advise if you are still having any...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close...
Oilseed Highlights: EUDR Decision and South American Weather Weigh on Complex
The Market It has been a tough week thus far for soybeans and meal. The EU’s decision to delay its European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) mea...
Livestock Roundup: Broiler Outlook
Hatcheries set 242.69 million eggs in incubators during the week ending 28 September, up 6.1 percent from a year ago. So far this year, egg sets are up 1.9...
Coffee Rally Stalls as Weather Shifts, Bear Move Ahead?
Coffee futures have been on a massive rally in 2024 with the ICE “C” contract rising above $2.60/lb last week, breaching that point for just th...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 20-26, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 443,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous...
Market Commentary: Wheat Jumps Higher on Massive Egypt Imports; Soymeal Falls on EUDR News
Wheat remains the darling of the CBOT with more bullish news pouring into the complex. Today’s rally was sparked by reports that Egypt has booked ove...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.1525/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. ...
Ludditic Longshoremen; Symptom not Disease
Ludditic Longshoremen Labor strikes are always about money, working conditions and job protection but the latter is skyrocketing to the top. The U.S. East...
Kenya’s Crop Choices
In yesterday’s WPI Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional analysis report, it was noted that Kenyan farmers are switching from growing maize...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Fuel 2-Day Corn Rally; Wheat Rises with Russian Prices
CBOT grains and oilseeds seem to be playing “follow the leader” and have recently switched roles. Previously, soybeans were rallying and pullin...
Trade Policy Spin; Interstate Trade Barriers
Trade Policy Spin It is an election year, and the Biden Administration is claiming to have opened up $26.7 billion in overseas market access for American f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.29/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. No...
East and Gulf Port Workers on Strike
A port worker strike in the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Ports started today affecting container shipments, while a strike in Vancouver, Canada affecting grain...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports in 2024/25 could drop to almost nothing as...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Bullish Corn but Neutral Soy, Wheat; Port Strike Looms
Monday’s CBOT trade was essentially dedicated to the Grain Stocks report with pre-report trading seeing muted action and steady volumes while post-re...
Hurricane Helene Impacts in the Southeast
After making landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida, Hurricane Helene struck northeast Georgia and western North Carolina. All commodities in the region...
Green for You, Grey for Me; Slaying National Champions
Green for You, Grey for Me Some say the EU has been vague about whether it will seek a delay in the December 30 implementation deadline for implementing th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.84/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...
Russia’s Grain Shortfall
Today’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report provided the market with a bullish input but there may be another shoe to drop. Russia’s stocks to u...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region i...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Four regions in Russia’s Siberia have declared states of emergency due to heavy rains and flooding. Milling Wheat Wheat mar...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the q...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and whea...
Market Commentary: Pre-Report Plus Brazil Lightens Risk
Volume was light except in soymeal, Feeders and lean hogs. USDA’s final quarterly stocks report for MY 2023/24 arrives Monday and it has surprised to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. ...
Policy Quick Hits
Government Funding President Biden yesterday signed a continuing resolution passed by Congress to fund the government at current levels until 20 December...
Cow-Calf Margins Down from July but Still Imply Herd Rebuilding
Since WPI’s July update on cow-calf margins, expected 2024 returns for producers have shifted lower but remain well above year-ago values and near re...
Nudge versus Cudgel; New Japanese PM; Pesticide Restrictions
Nudge versus Cudgel The Biden Administration has achieved some market openings in various countries, the most recent being obtaining agreement from Chile t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1325/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8425/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Selloff Sinks Soyoil, Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Lower Ahead of Stocks Report
A surprise selloff in crude oil put heavy selling pressure on the CBOT soy complex on Thursday, with soyoil and soybeans scoring bearish reversals for the...
Oilseed Highlights: Weakness Today But Still Plenty of Support
The Market The soy complex has had a bullish week thus far, moving higher on a weather premium added for Brazil, and news that China, the largest importer...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report Mostly Neutral
Today, USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the June through August quarter. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 Spetmeber was...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the co...
Industry Consolidation
U.S. antitrust law is complicated, but current efforts to block a merger between grocery retailers Albertsons and Kroger may not fit the bill. Current trig...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. More...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Extend Rallies; Wheat, Corn Fall as Short-Covering Fades
The CBOT saw diverging trading patterns on Tuesday with soybeans and soyoil continuing their rallies and extending gains to new highs. China is rumored to...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
On Thursday, USDA will release its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the June through August quarter showing the inventory as of 1 September. Pre-report e...
Tariff Spiral and WTO Failure; Nuclear Power and GMO’s
Tariff Spiral and WTO Failure Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump now says he will impose 200 percent tariffs on farm machinery from John Deere sh...
Energy and Agriculture
Global agriculture produces energy, with 23 percent of ethanol produced from sugarcane, and another 7 percent produced from the molasses byproduct of proce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.78/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&n...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh reports that it will be importing 400,000 MT of wheat immediat...