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U.S. – Brazil Dialogue; Tone Deaf in Europe

U.S. – Brazil Dialogue The 22nd Plenary of the U.S. – Brazil Commercial Dialogue will be held in September to discuss reducing non-tariff barri...

Egypt Needs Wheat

Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 470 KMT of wheat today. It will come from four countries: Romania, France, Ukraine,...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5825/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s government has decided to increase the price of subsidized...

From Weekend Reading

In addition to attacking China, populist politicians on both the American right and left are finding audience encouragement when they attack big companies...

No Mimosas

Brazil produces more than a third of the world’s oranges and controls 70 percent of global exports. This drought, plus disease and other issues has c...

Mexico: New President, Mostly Same Policies

Mexico’s Presidential election was held this weekend; the Mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, won an overwhelming majority.  President-ele...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.7275/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The EU Commission imposed an import tax on Russian wheat, corn, products derived from their processing, and feed. The duties range from...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat  Determining how much wheat will be planted in Argentina is difficult. Production margins have gone from very bad to very good, thereby encourag...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Market Commentary: Markets Enter May like a Lion, Leave as a Lamb

Usually, it’s the month of March that comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb, but commodity markets chose to follow that pattern in May, which c...

Oilseed Highlights: Coproduct Swap on a Bearish Week

The Market The trade shook off earlier concerns about Brazilian flooding and instead focused this week on the good start to the U.S. soybean crop, and Arge...

Friday Policy Roundup

Brussels versus Beijing: Beijing may launch an investigation into whether the EU is dumping pork into China. Brussels opened an anti-dumping probe on vanil...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.785/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&n...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for May 17-23, 2024.   Wheat:  Net sales reductions of 60,900 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably...

Market Commentary: Pigs Fly, the Rest Swim

The market open is very telltale about the trade’s beliefs. It can open hard and fast in one direction or another, or it can move in small increments...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.81/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&n...

Livestock Roundup: China Beef Market

China has just banned beef exports from the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado over ractopamine. A shipment of frozen omasum (the third stomach in a ruminant a...

Where are the Veggies?

As noted yesterday, USDA estimates that the food category incurring the most inflation this year in the U.S. will be fresh vegetables. Part of the problem...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5525/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.9275/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 May 2024 Crop Outlook Russian weather, particularly spring frosts, became an important factor in estimating the potentia...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $7.0025/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Whither U.S. Trade Policy

May is World Trade Month and President Biden declared last week World Trade Week. USDA described it as the perfect opportunity to highlight the importance...

Food Price Improvements

USDA’s Economic Research Service issued its updated forecast for food-related inflation in 2024 and for the most part it involves good news. Year-to-...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of importing wheat from Zi...

Cattle on Feed

USDA reports U.S. Cattle on Feed is down one percent for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.6 million on May 1, 2024.  Placement...

Memorial Day

U.S. financial markets are closed on Monday, 27 May and consequently there will be no Ag Perspectives report on that day. WPI's analysis reports will resum...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The big surprise in this week’s CFTC report was the expansion of funds’ short position in corn by over 54,000 contracts. Funds had been aggress...

Oilseed Highlights: Bonus Week for Soybeans

The Market For the week, July soybeans rose 20 cents (1.6 percent) to 1248/bushel. The November soybean contract added 16.25 cents. U.S. soybean futures we...

Cattle on Feed Report: Marketings Up on More Days in April

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The numbers came in very close to the pre-report expectations, making the report neural. Placements...

Friday Policy Shorts

Standards not Tariffs: The complaint against China and some other countries is that production practices are more highly distorted by government policies t...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6475/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.9725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&...

Export Sales

 Export Sales and Shipments for May 10-16, 2024.   Wheat: Net sales of 17,900 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 77 percent from the p...

Market Commentary: Wheat and Corn Still Strong; Soy Complex Waivers

Corn traded mostly higher all session and has gained value in three of the past four days. The soy complex was higher in the overnight session and opened t...

Senate Would Reject Obama; Europe Lives on Crisps

Senate Would Reject Obama President Biden has withdrawn his nominee to become the Deputy U.S. Trade Representative, Nelson Cunningham. Cunningham has stell...

Livestock Roundup: COF Preview and Farm Bill Provisions

Cattle on Feed Report USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattl...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.93/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Trade and Commerce Divide; Genetic Divide

Trade and Commerce Divide Populist Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro (D-Connecticut) wants her Democratic colleagues to undermine corporate America by disrupting...

Sunflower on Edge

Global sunflower seed production is only about one-seventh as large as soybean output, but it has surprisingly continued on a similar trend in supply despi...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 May 2024 Crop Outlook As of mid-May, Russia farmers planted 24.8 Mha of spring crops which is 44.5 percent of the foreca...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.58/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.975/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. ...

Breaking Eggs with Poor Math

Activists have been pressuring the Biden Administration to take more action against Big Ag. The latest is an attack on egg production. Opponents are blamin...

Status of Global Ag

USDA’s Economic Research Service has produced an expansive study entitled, World Agricultural Production, Resource Use, and Productivity, 1961–...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) hopes to reach an agreemen...

Ultra-Processed Dog Food; Antidumping is Legal

Ultra-Processed Dog Food The number of pets spiked during COVID but the overall trend has been more domestic animals and fewer human babies. Pets are lower...

House Farm Bill Draft: Conservation and Trade

Last week on Friday 17 May, WPI outlined the commodity program proposals in the House farm bill draft. Below are some key changes in the conservation and t...

Bye Bye Black Sheep

New Zealand famously is a country with more sheep than people, but the competition is slipping in favor of humans. The problem is the economics of wool, wh...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, up $0.375 from yesterday's close. ...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia’s agriculture ministry announced that 900,000 hectares of crops will need to be reseeded this year after several frosts/fr...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn  Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, slower than WPI expected. It currently spans 25 percent of the area, which implies...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5125/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Oilseeds Highlights: Defying the Odds

The Market Despite worries about used cooking oil imports, slow exports, and a drop in the NOPA crush, July soybeans closed the week up 9 cents (0.73 perce...

House Farm Bill Draft Commodity Program Proposals

As we reported Monday, 13 May, the full draft of the House Agriculture Committee’s farm bill was expected to be released today, and it was. Following...

Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market

There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly highe...

Livestock Roundup: Pork Demand Rebound

Going into the summer, a big question for meat has been: how will consumer demand hold up? This is especially the case with steadily increasing beef prices...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.6325/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nb...

China Retaliation?; WTO Dispute System Not Urgent

China Retaliation? The assumption is that China will retaliate against U.S. agriculture for any new tariffs applied to Chinese goods by President Biden und...

Transatlantic Glue

China understandably responded harshly to the Biden Administration’s sharp increase in tariffs on EV’s and components. However, there is not mu...

Brazil Leans into Meat

Over the past decade, Brazilian corn production has grown faster than its output of animal protein, but that may be changing. Brazil’s corn productio...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 May 2024 This year’s spring weather in Russia is abnormal; last week frost was registered across European Russia ra...

Tariffs: UCO No, Phosphate Yes

The Biden Administration just announced higher Section 301 tariffs on a host of imports from China, after the statutory four-year review of those duties im...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.725/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Tariff Man’s Competitor; Europe Correctly Fears Trump

Tariff Man’s Competitor Former President Donald Trump prided himself on his use of tariffs, which candidate Biden criticized but now President Biden...

Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan

U.S. agriculture representatives returning from a trade mission to India are all excited about their prospects for boosting sales to the world’s most...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on th...

More Details, More Conflicts on Farm Bill

The slow roll of the details of the farm bill continues. On Friday, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) released a title-b...

Psychobiotic Nonsense; SPS/TBT and Poultry

Psychobiotic Nonsense One component of a book called The Psychobiotic Revolution is scientifically reasonable – that the human gut biome contains tri...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.87/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. ...

Milking Future Demand

U.S. and Mexican dairy industry representatives met and renewed their commitment to “collaborate and advocate for mutually beneficial dairy policies...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Frosts in Russia’s central, southern, and Volga regions have halted spring planting efforts, which will likely contribute to lowe...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major flood...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4...

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bush...

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six per...

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6975/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.26 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads WASDE-Defying CBOT Rally

The CBOT was higher heading into Friday’s May WASDE report from the USDA with weather and production concerns in various parts of the globe driving f...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The surprise in this week’s CFTC report is that – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline - funds were more aggressive covering grain/o...

Oilseed Highlights: Not Much Ado About Something

The Market After hitting a new contract low yesterday, the trade took July soyoil up nearly 2 cents today and closed out the week with a 3.1 percent rise t...

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