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Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nb...

HPAI Waning This Spring

In 2022 and 2023, most HPAI cases affected producers during the spring and fall. The years 2024 and 2025 were different, however. The bulk of cases occurre...

The Future of the U.S. – China Trade War

The Washington International Trade Association held a conference today entitled, Phase 2: The Art of the Deal with China. Experts included former USTR offi...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq has confirmed that it will not need to import as much wheat in 2024/25 as it expects...

Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar

The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with p...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina Macroeconomic Updates Argentina saw a shortened trading week, with no markets last Thursday and Friday. It was also the first week of trading und...

2025/2026 Trade Update

Almost none of the primary U.S. grain or oilseed offerings have made a solid start to 2025-26, as export sales for the upcoming marketing year are largely...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025.  Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous wee...

Cattle on Feed - April 2025

U.S. cattle on Feed totaled totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2025 - 2 percent below April 1, 2024.  Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...

Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes

There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one...

Good Friday

Tomorrow, 18 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspe...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report a Day Early

USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today because the markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. The total inventory of cattle on...

Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher

The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Dmitriy Patrushev, the Vice Premier of Russia, announced that during 2025 Russian farmers...

Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather

After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&n...

Heifers on Feed Drop Below Replacement Heifers

One of the metrics we’ve been watching as a sign of herd rebuilding is the number of heifers as a percent of on feed inventory. However, we’re...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan increased its domestic price for wheat flour by 2.8 percent. This is the selling pr...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&n...

Extreme is Necessary

While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg&rs...

EU and China on EV Tariffs

Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows com...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Grains  Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment

Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the...

A Timeline of Tariffs

As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI...

Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets

Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a...

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean export...

WASDE Corn

Corn - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels. U.S. corn ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last m...

WASDE Wheat

Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic c...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Raises Crush, Export Sales Remain Strong

The Market  Oilseed markets have been volatile again this week amid the tariff-induced meltdown in macroeconomic and ag markets and Wednesday’s...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for March 28-April 3, 2025.  Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previ...

Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause

The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he m...

War, what is it Good For?

It was another day of market turmoil over tariffs. There is still not enough clarity or transition time for businesses. The high tariffs between the U.S. a...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 31 March – 4 April 2025 Russian wheat, the only de-facto exportable commodity for the moment, is relatively stable but shows t...

Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions

CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners wi...

Some Clarity, But Long Haul

Trump officials this past weekend kept up the mixed messaging over whether reciprocal tariffs were merely a negotiating strategy or a permanent fixture. Br...

Ethanol to the Rescue!

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) headed a letter of 15 other bipartisan Senators asking President Trump to permit th...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  May...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s grain production was down by 17 percent in 2024 and due to dry weather and s...

Livestock Industry Margins

Except for beef packer and feedlot placement margins, cattle and hog industry profits were broadly lower last week with the pork industry seeing the most p...

Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix

Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. ...

MAHA and Bird Flu

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Market Update Argentina Faces Harvest Delays and Changing Trade Dynamics Corn harvest progress in Argentina was slow last week, with only 1 percentage...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Both the GBP and EUR are seen as safe-haven trades right now, which has led to appreciation in both currencies. That is making exports...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline...

Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook

Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultura...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...

Trade and Jobs Reports

Now that the Administration’s tariff plans are out, what is happening to the trade deficit? After hitting a record in January, the trade deficit shra...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&n...

Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off

The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s...

While Swinging for the Fence

Early reactions to President Trump’s tariff war are as expected. Major foreign trading partners are expressing shock and assuring Washington that if...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for March 21-27, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and...

Oilseed Highlights: “Liberation Day” Rattles Markets

The Market  Prior to the Liberation Day tariffs that President Trump announced late Wednesday, oilseed markets were seeing noted strength due to renew...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&...

“Reciprocal” Tariffs; Apocalypse Day, or Not; Misdirection

“Reciprocal” Tariffs President Trump’s political opponents acknowledge he is a great marketer and his multi-day hype of a “Liberati...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture once again announced revised figures for the 2024 crop including occupi...

Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher

The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...

Uncertainty Ends

Trump’s tariff threats are said to be causing uncertainty, though its intent is transparent. One thing tomorrow’s release of the tariff plan wi...

Quick Hits: Agency Employment, Grains Reports, and Biofuels

USDA Retirement: USDA employees have until 8 Apil to decide whether to participate in the administration's so-called deferred resignation program. USDA emp...

Livestock Industry Margins

Near-record negative margins for beef packers continue to dominate discussion of livestock industry margins this week. Beef packer profits rebounded slight...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region There is very little information on the Middle East and North Africa due to the end of Ram...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers

The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the ag...

Liberation Day is Coming!

President Trump said yesterday, his reciprocal tariffs will launch this Wednesday, calling it “Liberation Day.” Those new tariffs will affect "...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina Continues to Face Weather Instability   Argentina remains in a period of climate instability, with frequent heavy rains, strong winds,...

Grain Stocks Report Charts

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the q...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the w...

Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility

It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.5325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&...

Slow Soy Sales in Argentina Following Policy Changes

Argentine soybean farmers are selling their crop at the slowest pace in 10 years as producers bet on the likely effects of libertarian President Javier Mil...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for March 14-20, 2025.   Wheat: Net sales of 100,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the prev...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday

Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be...

Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report

USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.5 million head. This was down slightly from 1...

Oilseed Highlights: Soyoil, Rapeseed Rally on Demand Surge

The Market  The big movement in oilseed markets this week is the rally in soyoil futures, which are up 4 percent from last week. The market has rallie...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&n...

Trade War Maneuvering; MAHA HaHa; Russian Grain Agreement

Trade War Maneuvering Wall Street trading sank lower on word that the White House will announce today tariffs on automobile imports. While some U.S. farm g...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 March 2025 Russian farmers started planting and fertilizing winter crops which is rather early for this time of the ye...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&...

U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption

U.S. manufacturing energy consumption has continued to increase, according to the EIA’s recently released survey results for 2022. The agency conduct...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco’s rainfall has increased this year after the last two/three years of drought...

Livestock Industry Margins

The big story in livestock industry margins continues to be the record-breaking weakness in beef packer profits, which fell another $50/head last week to -...

Monday Policy Potpourri

Hill Trade Advice:  The U.S. House Ways & Means’ Trade Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow on American trade negotiation priorities. Witne...

Summary of Futures

May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...

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