The CBOT ended mixed on Tuesday as traders parsed through a slew of different data points. Perhaps the most influential news for the day was private crop a...
Articles
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nb...
HPAI Waning This Spring
In 2022 and 2023, most HPAI cases affected producers during the spring and fall. The years 2024 and 2025 were different, however. The bulk of cases occurre...
The Future of the U.S. – China Trade War
The Washington International Trade Association held a conference today entitled, Phase 2: The Art of the Deal with China. Experts included former USTR offi...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq has confirmed that it will not need to import as much wheat in 2024/25 as it expects...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with p...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...
Barriers are Good; Squeezed in the Trade War; Calculating the Impacts; Tax is a Tax
Barriers are Good The issue de jour is tariffs. Donald Trump is vilified by conventionalists for the self-induced wound of raising this single barrier to b...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Macroeconomic Updates Argentina saw a shortened trading week, with no markets last Thursday and Friday. It was also the first week of trading und...
2025/2026 Trade Update
Almost none of the primary U.S. grain or oilseed offerings have made a solid start to 2025-26, as export sales for the upcoming marketing year are largely...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous wee...
Cattle on Feed - April 2025
U.S. cattle on Feed totaled totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2025 - 2 percent below April 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 18 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspe...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report a Day Early
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today because the markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. The total inventory of cattle on...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day...
Trade War Machinations; Chicken War; Uncomfortable Europe; MAHA Coke
Trade War Machinations EU trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic left Washington saying the Trump Administration’s trade policy goals were unclear. Yet, the...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Dmitriy Patrushev, the Vice Premier of Russia, announced that during 2025 Russian farmers...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&n...
Heifers on Feed Drop Below Replacement Heifers
One of the metrics we’ve been watching as a sign of herd rebuilding is the number of heifers as a percent of on feed inventory. However, we’re...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan increased its domestic price for wheat flour by 2.8 percent. This is the selling pr...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&n...
Extreme is Necessary
While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg&rs...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows com...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting po...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Budget Reconciliation: A Step Closer to “One Big Beautiful Bill”
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill by a vote of 216 to 214. The two Republican “no” votes were from Thomas Massie of...
Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment
Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean export...
WASDE Corn
Corn - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels. U.S. corn ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last m...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic c...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Raises Crush, Export Sales Remain Strong
The Market Oilseed markets have been volatile again this week amid the tariff-induced meltdown in macroeconomic and ag markets and Wednesday’s...
Livestock Roundup: Latest CPI Data, Eggs Still in Driver’s Seat
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 28-April 3, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previ...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he m...
War, what is it Good For?
It was another day of market turmoil over tariffs. There is still not enough clarity or transition time for businesses. The high tariffs between the U.S. a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 March – 4 April 2025 Russian wheat, the only de-facto exportable commodity for the moment, is relatively stable but shows t...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners wi...
Some Clarity, But Long Haul
Trump officials this past weekend kept up the mixed messaging over whether reciprocal tariffs were merely a negotiating strategy or a permanent fixture. Br...
Ethanol to the Rescue!
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) headed a letter of 15 other bipartisan Senators asking President Trump to permit th...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s grain production was down by 17 percent in 2024 and due to dry weather and s...
Livestock Industry Margins
Except for beef packer and feedlot placement margins, cattle and hog industry profits were broadly lower last week with the pork industry seeing the most p...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. ...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Update Argentina Faces Harvest Delays and Changing Trade Dynamics Corn harvest progress in Argentina was slow last week, with only 1 percentage...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Both the GBP and EUR are seen as safe-haven trades right now, which has led to appreciation in both currencies. That is making exports...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultura...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
Trade and Jobs Reports
Now that the Administration’s tariff plans are out, what is happening to the trade deficit? After hitting a record in January, the trade deficit shra...
Tight Supplies, Strong U.S. Demand to Support Cattle Prices Despite Trade War
Anyone following the beef and cattle markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consens...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s...
While Swinging for the Fence
Early reactions to President Trump’s tariff war are as expected. Major foreign trading partners are expressing shock and assuring Washington that if...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as t...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 21-27, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and...
Oilseed Highlights: “Liberation Day” Rattles Markets
The Market Prior to the Liberation Day tariffs that President Trump announced late Wednesday, oilseed markets were seeing noted strength due to renew...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberat...
“Reciprocal” Tariffs; Apocalypse Day, or Not; Misdirection
“Reciprocal” Tariffs President Trump’s political opponents acknowledge he is a great marketer and his multi-day hype of a “Liberati...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture once again announced revised figures for the 2024 crop including occupi...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Uncertainty Ends
Trump’s tariff threats are said to be causing uncertainty, though its intent is transparent. One thing tomorrow’s release of the tariff plan wi...
Quick Hits: Agency Employment, Grains Reports, and Biofuels
USDA Retirement: USDA employees have until 8 Apil to decide whether to participate in the administration's so-called deferred resignation program. USDA emp...
Livestock Industry Margins
Near-record negative margins for beef packers continue to dominate discussion of livestock industry margins this week. Beef packer profits rebounded slight...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region There is very little information on the Middle East and North Africa due to the end of Ram...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the ag...
Liberation Day Minus One; States Rights, National Losses; The Hammer and USDA
Liberation Day Minus One The Trump team is said to be weighing 20 percent across the board tariffs, reducing the share of U.S. funding of the WTO, and crit...
Liberation Day is Coming!
President Trump said yesterday, his reciprocal tariffs will launch this Wednesday, calling it “Liberation Day.” Those new tariffs will affect "...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Continues to Face Weather Instability Argentina remains in a period of climate instability, with frequent heavy rains, strong winds,...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the q...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the w...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&...
Slow Soy Sales in Argentina Following Policy Changes
Argentine soybean farmers are selling their crop at the slowest pace in 10 years as producers bet on the likely effects of libertarian President Javier Mil...
Hog Outlook Shows Smaller Production and Exports, but Strong Demand in 2025
The March Hogs and Pigs report offered the industry a much-needed look at what the supply situation is and is likely to be for the coming year. As WPI read...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 14-20, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 100,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the prev...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.5 million head. This was down slightly from 1...
Oilseed Highlights: Soyoil, Rapeseed Rally on Demand Surge
The Market The big movement in oilseed markets this week is the rally in soyoil futures, which are up 4 percent from last week. The market has rallie...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news rem...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&n...
Trade War Maneuvering; MAHA HaHa; Russian Grain Agreement
Trade War Maneuvering Wall Street trading sank lower on word that the White House will announce today tariffs on automobile imports. While some U.S. farm g...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 March 2025 Russian farmers started planting and fertilizing winter crops which is rather early for this time of the ye...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamenta...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&...
U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption
U.S. manufacturing energy consumption has continued to increase, according to the EIA’s recently released survey results for 2022. The agency conduct...
Transatlantic Provocations; Indian Adjustments; Grain Industry Threats
Transatlantic Provocations No one knows what to fully expect on 2 April and the launch of President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Bill Reinsc...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco’s rainfall has increased this year after the last two/three years of drought...
Livestock Industry Margins
The big story in livestock industry margins continues to be the record-breaking weakness in beef packer profits, which fell another $50/head last week to -...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any upda...
Monday Policy Potpourri
Hill Trade Advice: The U.S. House Ways & Means’ Trade Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow on American trade negotiation priorities. Witne...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...