Production margins across the livestock industry were broadly lower last week, with weaker profits in the beef and pork packing sectors leading the way. Be...
Articles
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Expo...
2025 Pork in China
Zhu Zengyong, an analyst and researcher with the state-backed Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said on Monday that there is no more room for pork...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle against high temperatures and sporadic rainfall. By the end of last week, many areas nee...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...
Monday Policy Shorts
Pesticide Policy: New and controversial Secretary of HHS, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. says “Nothing is off limits” including agricultural chemicals...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps mos...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week with some Bearish Headwinds
The last session of this holiday shortened trading week was much like the week itself, mixed with mostly declines. Though hogs, HRS and soymeal all had gai...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed on February 1, 2025 was down one percent from a year ago. The total was 11.7 million head in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 7-13, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 532,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week,...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total cattle on feed inventory was 11.7 million head, at 99 percent of last year. Placements in...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9125/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. ...
U.S. Consumer Food Spending Trends
U.S. consumer spending patterns have undergone several significant shifts since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the food industry was no different. Since the pa...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to...
Oilseed Highlights: Strong Vegoil Markets Support Oilseeds
The Market The major action in global oilseed markets this past week has been in the vegoil realm, where tightening global supplies have pushed price...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the...
Rollins versus Kennedy; Move Over Eggs; FSC and VAT
Rollins versus Kennedy With a vote of 72 – 28, Brooke Rollins became the 33rd U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and she achieved the fifth best Senate ap...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices froze along with expor...
Market Commentary: Exports Bouy Corn; Wheat Rallies on Cold Snap Concerns
Grain futures were weaker overnight following the long weekend and after President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy. The markets bounced back Tue...
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins
After getting a slow start to the nomination process, Brooke Rollins is now the confirmed USDA Secretary, by virtue of a 72-28 confirmation vote last week...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6.0475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...
EU’s Agriculture Vision; Reciprocal Trade; AI Pivot; War in Europe
EU’s Agriculture Vision The EU’s draft proposed “Vision” for agriculture will be released tomorrow and it is said to be “farm...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, sh...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The 2025 dates for Ramadan are estimated to be 28 February until 30 March. The actual date...
Market Commentary: Weather, Economy, Tariffs All Jiggle the Market
There were surprisingly only modest trading volumes in this last trading session before a three-day holiday. There was no rush to escape positions. The liv...
President's Day Holiday
Monday, 17 February, is a U.S. holiday. The CME/CBOT will be closed along with our offices in observance of the President’s Day holiday. The next Ag...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. M...
2025 Hog Pork Outlook Positive for Producers and Packers
Anyone following the hog and pork markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus...
No GMO Corn Ban by Mexico
Last Wednesday, the Mexican government formally repealed an import ban on genetically modified corn after the U.S. successfully argued the measure violated...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertain...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Outlook
Beef production is now forecast at 26.632 million pounds, an increase of 775 million pounds (+3 percent) from the January forecast. Before taking this numb...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7775/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 31-February 6, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 569,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 30 percent from the pr...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fund...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&...
India Concessions; Reciprocal Tariffs; Fighting for Relevance
India Concessions U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet tomorrow at the White House. Trump says other countries treat th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 February 2025 The market remained bullish. Farmers keep sitting on grains expecting a better price amid rumours that end...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cut...
Powell and Trump Showdown on Capitol Hill
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last month that he would not resign from his position, even if asked to by Trump. Since the President did not m...
U.S. Africa Relations; Money versus Regulation
U.S. Africa Relations The Biden Administration started but failed to complete regional agreements like the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Prosperity (IP3) an...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
WASDE Soybeans - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of soybeans for the 2024/25 season. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 c...
WASDE Corn - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of corn for the 2024/25 season. The projected season-average farm price is raised 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. G...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2025
USDA made a small reduction in ending stocks of U.S. wheat by 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm...
Moral Reciprocity
President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are mostly pure protectionism. Canada, Brazil and Mexico are the main suppliers, not the stat...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – Mea Region Turkey’s wheat imports and exports are lower in 2024/25 due to restrictions by the T...
Livestock Industry Margins
U.S. meat packer margins fell further last week as beef and, to a lesser extent pork, values contracted while animal procurement costs remain high. WPI&rsq...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or rang...
Trump’s World
China is set to implement retaliatory tariffs on a variety of U.S. goods starting as soon as today, further intensifying trade tensions between the two eco...
Greer Approval; Tariffs and Trading Partners; Executive Power; Tech Reality
Greer Approval Jamieson Greer is expected to win approval from the Senate Finance Committee tomorrow to become the next U.S. Trade Representative. His hear...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.915/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Significant rainfall fell across almost the entire Argentine agricultural region last week, with the highest accumulations in the core corn and soybea...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Global wheat prices were higher last week as concerns about the 2024/25 Russian supply and export program increase as well as concerns...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experie...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&n...
WPI 2025 Acreage Outlook
With the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook forum happening at the end of this month and planting season a little more than four weeks away for parts of the U...
U.S. Food Aid Status
The Trump Administration’s placement of the U.S. Agency for International Development on ice has sparked a firestorm in Washington. Critics of the ag...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 24-30, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 438,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 4 percent from the previous...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Volatile As Long As Tariffs Are Uncertain
The big news in the ag commodity markets Wednesday was the pullback in soybean futures as traders remain wary of the political tensions and tariff developm...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9325/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close...
Divergence of Markets; Fear No Beer; Little Net Gain
Divergence of Markets Food away from home has been outpacing food at home as the cost of human services has written. The categories on the rise include mea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 January 2025 The market remained bullish, however, the dynamics and stability varied from region to region. Prices in...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Tariff Relief; Cattle Selloff Extends to Second Day
Markets were encouraged by the fact both Canada and Mexico were able to secure 30-day delays on Trump’s tariff plans, which offers hope the duties ar...
Unbridled Confidence; Good Governance
Unbridled Confidence As President Trump’s tariffs were about to go into effect on Canada and Mexico, a farmer representative gave assurance that they...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.945/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s monthly inflation rate increased by 5.03 percent in January while the 12-mo...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock producer margins were mostly higher last week as gains in physical cattle prices and deferred hog futures supported profitability expectations. F...
Market Commentary: Tariff Whiplash
News of President Trump’s tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada drove the agricultural and macroeconomic markets on Monday with seemingly every t...
Agencies and Buildings; Reactions to Tariffs; USMCA Civil Disobedience
Agencies and Buildings Donald Trump’s flurry of actions to upset the status quo in Washington is upsetting bureaucrats, but perhaps not Democrats. Wh...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The reduction in export taxes has not yet had the expected impact of boosting farmer sales of grain and soybeans. The main issue is that...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds still engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Funds expan...
Market Commentary: Tariffs More Than Weather
President Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow eclipsed concerns about South American w...
Cattle Inventory Report: U.S. Cattle Herd Still in Contraction
USDA released its January Cattle Inventory report today. The U.S. cattle herd is still in a contraction phase. The total inventory of all cattle and...
Tariff Follies Begin; Ludicrous Lutnick; Hill-arious Committee Picks
Tariff Follies Begin There is playing from strength, like having the leverage of oversized trade deficits, and then there is overplaying one’s hand...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.595/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day with Wheat Hot, The Rest Not
Today’s trading session pretty much followed the overnight with wheat notching a third day of gains but traders taking a breather on corn, beans, and...
January Cattle Inventory Report Preview
Tomorrow, the USDA will release its January Cattle Inventory Report. Given USDA’s decision to drop the July mid-year report due to budget constraints...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 17-23, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 456,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.665/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Lead CBOT Higher; Cattle Correct Ahead of Inventory Report
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday due to the bullish influences of wheat and corn. The two grains saw support from Black Sea and South American weath...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.97/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. ...
Transatlantic Uncertainty
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says that the Administration is still on track to impose a 25 percent tariff on Canada and Mexico this Saturda...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 January 2025 The domestic market remained bullish while the export market in dollar terms remained relatively stable...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain but Lack Conviction; More All-Time Highs for Cattle
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday in what was mostly a technically driven corrective bounce. With South America’s weather still not perfect and vario...
WTO Epiphany; Trump Treats Ag Horribly
WTO Epiphany Keith Rockwell is a trade policy professional. The lead spokesman for the WTO for many years, he was a cheerleader for the new world order and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Trump Orders Freeze on Federal Grants and Loans, Including Ag Spending
Yesterday, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) circulated a memo that directed federal agencies to “temporarily pause all activities related to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s new state grain buyer – Mostakbal Misr – is rumored to have made...
Livestock Industry Margins
Rising animal costs pressured beef and pork packer margins last week while offering a boost to livestock feeders. Most notably, feedlot margins improved si...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Tariff Threats Ease; Cattle Surge to New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with grain and oilseed futures seeing pressure develop after the U.S. and Colombia averted a possible tit-for-t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Un-Whole of Government; Apex Predator; Heavy Lift
Un-Whole of Government President Trump’s memorandum last week announcing his America First Trade Policy (AFTP) was issued to five federal departments...
January Cattle on Feed Report Bullish
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report on Friday. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.8 million head, 99 percent...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The state of agriculture in Argentina and the loss of export competitiveness become clearer when examined through recent data. The official inflation rate...
Market Commentary: Market Stalls Waiting for South American Weather Definition
There were modest volumes on this last trading day of the week, except in soymeal and cattle where the goal was to get out of the former and into the latte...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 10-16, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 164,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.865/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. ...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on January 1, 2025 – down 1 percent from January 1, 20...
Rollins Confirmation Hearing
As Gary Blumenthal reported yesterday, the Senate Agriculture Committee held a confirmation hearing on the nomination of Brooke Rollins to be Secretary of...
Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather
TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still...
Rollins Rolled; Cluelessness at the Top
Rollins Rolled Poised, confident, charming - USDA Secretary-Designate Brooke Rollins hit the trifecta today at her confirmation hearing before the Senate A...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish Feeder Pig Market
Bullish feeder pig prices could signal an expected return to improved profitability for hog production later this year. The 17 January Nationa...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8975/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat on Profit Taking, Tariff Talk; Cattle Hit $200 for First Time
Except for soymeal and the livestock markets, the CBOT was lower on Wednesday with traders booking profits and taking a more cautious approach after the re...
Transatlantic Tariffication; Biofuel Battles
Transatlantic Tariffication President Trump’s bromance with big tech billionaires has refocused his attention on Europe. The large penalties and regu...
Summary of Futures
Please see attachment...
Global Wheat Dominance
Russia’s wheat supplies may be tighter, but it is still not out of the market. Egypt's state grain buyer, Mostakbal Misr, is said to have made a &ldq...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 January 2025 Last week, the market woke up from the prolonged Christmas holidays and surprisingly remained bullish aga...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were decidedly mixed last week with diverging trends developing across the industry. Beef packer margins gained for the second s...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Surge as Dollar Slides
The first full day of the Trump Presidency saw CBOT grain futures surge as the U.S. dollar pulled back sharply. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all saw strong bu...
Day One Trump Executive Orders
Shortly after his swearing-in as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump signed a slew of Executive Orders (EO) putting the wheels in motion...
Summary of Futures
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Tariffs Hurt Ag, Help Oil?; Billionaire Farm Boy; Ignoring the Labels
Tariffs Hurt Ag, Help Oil? The President, aka “Tariff Man” pronounced at his inauguration that, “we will tariff and tax foreign countries...