The weekly CFTC report featured a few surprises, most notably the 11,000-contract net buying in the Chicago wheat market. Heading into the report, expectat...

Monday, 19 February is a U.S. holiday. The CME/CBOT will be closed as will our offices in observance of the President’s Day holiday. The next Ag Pers...

Long’s rush to the exit in CBOT futures continued Friday with the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) balance sheet projections weighing heavily on m...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.605/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&n...

The Market The oilseeds market remains bearish as South American crops progress more favorably and Chicago futures face a large American crop that is over-...

International Agency Capture Regulatory capture occurs when a policymaker or regulator is co-opted to serve the interests of a minor constituency. That cap...

Yesterday, WPI covered the export demand for pork, and how that could help support hog prices moving forward, along with some other factors like lower feed...

Not totally that bad if you were betting short, or like livestock. But let’s count the ways: New contract low in corn New contract low in soybean me...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.1775/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.67/bushel, down $0.185 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Weekly trade data showed a big uptick in pork exports last week; net sales were up 83 percent from the four-week average and actual shipments were up 82 pe...

The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with USDA issuing a bearish long-term outlook late Tuesday and traders looking for bearish numbers from the agency l...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&nb...

More Subsidies for Scale The Biden Administration blames large meat packers for higher consumer prices. Its solution has been to subsidize the startup of s...

There are many different U.S. programs encouraging the research into, production of, and use of biodiesel and renewable biodiesel. The U.S. Energy Informat...

Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It&r...

Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in a...

USDA released the latest Census of Agriculture today. Typically, the release is every five years, so this is the 2022 census, updated from 2017. The respon...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.3075/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.975/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

Corn It is expected that extreme temperatures recorded in Argentina over the past fifteen days may reduce the corn crop’s yield potential, primarily...

Farm Bill Lacks Gravitas Farmer protests appear to be exploding everywhere. Of course, in Europe where it is part of the profession. But in India as well w...

As noted yesterday, China’s pork imports appear to have recently turned higher despite supposedly over-abundant and under-valued domestic supplies. I...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION North Africa is said to be the largest wheat importing region in the worl...

Corn, soybeans, and soymeal turned higher to start the week with markets bouncing from recent lows or recovering from early pushes to new lows. The Goldman...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.305/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.975/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. ...

The recent policy reversal in Europe on environmental obligations for farmers is not being welcomed by everyone. Greenpeace warns that excluding farms from...

When African Swine Fever (ASW) struck China late last decade, animals were euthanized and actual swine numbers fell from their high by nearly 38 percent. M...

USDA sets the crop insurance price guarantees based on the average settlement for December corn futures and November soybean futures during the month of Fe...

Milling Wheat  Wheat markets remain under pressure as Western Europe and Black Sea exports battle each other and the American markets for export deman...

Post-WASDE trade saw the CBOT markets largely continue their former trends with the February report – as usual – offering only minor adjustment...

The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds still being heavy net sellers in soybeans and corn with light short selling in the...

The Market It was a good week for soyoil, and another downer for soybeans and soymeal. March soyoil gained 5.6 percent to end at 47.26 cents/pound. March s...

The Ashes of EU’s Greens There is a lot of finger-pointing in Brussels over responsibility for originally drafting the Green Deal/Farm to Fork debacl...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.29/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.9675/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&nb...

As Gary Blumenthal reported in yesterday’s Market Commentary, a federal district court ruled that U.S. EPA erred when it approved dicamba.  ...

USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean...

USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is...

USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food...

It might have been a day of big surprises given the number of new crop estimates being issued around the world. Governments in China, Brazil, Canada, and t...

The agriculture commissioners and secretaries from the 50 states were in town this week for a meeting of the National Association of State Departments of A...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.3325/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.885/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Export Sales and Shipments for January 26 to February 1, 2024 Wheat:  Net sales of 378,400 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 17 percent from the...

Typically, trading the day before a major USDA report – including the WASDE – is muted and that statement held true for all but one commodity o...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.02/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...

The EU’s political leaders have made dramatic policy reversals in recent days that reflect a more reasoned approach than in the past. As noted previo...

South Korea wants more rice to be consumed and is subsidizing rice for college students, the cohort least likely to eat breakfast, and is incentivizing foo...

Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on th...

The CBOT ag markets spent most of Tuesday preparing for the coming February WASDE report with funds and commercials adjusting positions. Wheat futures saw...

In a rare bipartisan move, the House of Representatives passed the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act last week by a vote of 357 to 70. Howev...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.95/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...

Tariffs are Coming While U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump has promised more tariffs if he is elected, border measures against China are likely rega...

At the behest of the domestic rice industry, U.S. House Ways & Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) asked the U.S. International Trade Commission t...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey and Russia are reportedly discussing “a new mechanism”...

The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with the soy complex posting a bullish turnaround on stronger-than-expected export inspections and rising soymea...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.9025/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...

Only about 12 percent of global oat production is exported. Canada only produces 13.5 percent of the world’s oats, but it has a 67 percent global mar...

Wheat Like every other low-production year, the dynamics of Argentina’s FOB market are greatly reduced. On the one hand, there are fewer destinations...

While the extension of the farm bill passed back in November as part of a stop-gap funding measure takes some pressure off getting a final bill done, there...

Regional News  European farmers are flexing their political muscles and proving just how much weight they carry with lawmakers. Farmers have been prot...

The CBOT was mostly lower on Friday with the soy complex accelerating its selloff and confirming that this week’s early strength was indeed merely a...

The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged this week at the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).  As WPI reporte...

The Market It was the seventh week of lower closes for March soybean futures. After this week’s 1.7 percent haircut, soybeans are now trading at a tw...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4275/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close...

Bidenomics Analysis Inflation has helped make President Joe Biden unpopular and he’s fighting back with the accusation of “price gouging”...

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Markets opened like the overnight, all flashing red except for cattle. Then at mid-morning wheat started flashing green. SRW, HRS and cattle hung on to clo...

Innovate, Replicate or Regulate U.S. Big Tech companies should take a lesson from their Big Ag counterparts – Europe is not your friend. Looking at a...

The U.S. cattle herd is still in a contraction phase. USDA released its Cattle Inventory report yesterday. The total inventory of all cattle and calves as...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.015/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Export Sales and Shipments for January 19-25, 2024   Wheat:  Net sales of 322,500 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 29 percent from t...

The CBOT saw mixed trade on Wednesday as the grain markets (corn and wheat) failed to follow through on Tuesday’s reversal and instead either sank lo...

Rhetoric Meets Reality German Greens reacted to farmer angst by blaming supermarkets for suppressing prices. Canadian Industry Minister Francois-Philippe C...

World sugar prices have begun to moderate after hitting a multi-year high in 2023. The high of $0.28/pound last year was the highest price since 2011, but...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&n...

Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 January 2024 The grain market could not withstand the pressure from stocks which remain high at this time of year. The e...

The CBOT posted a decisive Turnaround Tuesday with the soy complex, corn, and wheat all turning sharply higher and scoring bullish days on the charts. The...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.055/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...

Tomorrow, USDA will release the semi-annual cattle inventory report reflecting cattle numbers as of 1 January. The pre-report consensus estimate is the tot...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has decided not to set up a wheat hedging program for 2024/25 due t...

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with commodity and macroeconomic markets under pressure from bearish economic news in China. Over the weekend,...

On 16 January, we reported that the Senate Environmental and Public Works Committee would be marking up the Providing Reliable, Objective, Verifiable Emiss...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4025/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...

Wheat The quality issues (low test weight) in Argentina’s wheat that WPI has noted in recent weeks now seems to be quite localized in the Southwest o...

Regional News  Turkey decided to reduce its import tax on sunflower seeds from 27 to 12 percent and on sunflower oil from 36 to 22 percent.  Mill...

Grain/oilseed and livestock markets are currently headed in diverging directions – with commodities involving plants and tractors falling while commo...

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

USDA released the December slaughter report yesterday, and with it cumulative data for the year. It is a good piece of preliminary data before the cattle i...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0025/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&n...

The Market The soy complex spent the early part of this trading week adding value, and the latter part shedding it. Bearish was an increase in the forecast...

Newly installed Argentine President Javier Milei told elites in Davos last week that they need to rally around capitalism because socialism has never impro...

There was notably higher volume trading soybeans, soyoil, HRW, and beef today. Each driven by different factors; all appeared to be driven more by fundamen...

Environmentalists in Europe are reportedly furious over the European Parliament’s Environment Committee approving the use of some new genomic techniq...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.5175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.1225/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...

USDA’s milk production forecast for 2024 reflects a reduced cow inventory for the year and slower growth in milk output per cow. Total production is...

Export Sales and Shipments for January 12-18, 2024. Wheat:  Net sales of 451,400 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 36 percent from the previous...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.1075/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close.&nb...

The CBOT was mostly higher at midweek with grains – particularly wheat – leading the rally. Market chatter suggests China has returned to the U...

EU Policy Developments Farmer protests in Europe have increased and some credit the movement with softening Brussels’ views toward Ukrainian grain th...

The export of surplus U.S. agricultural production remains hugely important to some crops, especially for cotton and sorghum where over half of output is t...

Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 January 2024 For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin mentioned grains grown and harves...

The CBOT finished higher for the day with traders increasingly engaging in bottom-picking and hopeful that last week saw the grain market develop its near-...

Crop land values appreciated significantly during the long tail of COVID impacts. It was predictable. Commodity prices were increasing. Inflation was high,...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.465/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.965/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Mar...

People In, Pork Out Earlier this year, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that California could stop pork from Iowa from coming into the state if it was not prod...

Analysts are intensely studying the changes in trade flows and their composition following the reversal from free trade by the Trump Administration, the co...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s wheat imports for 2023/24 are expected to decrease and whea...

The CBOT was mostly lower overnight with grain markets unable to find their footing after two bearish weeks and a weekend of favorable weather for Brazil a...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.965/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

The Environmental Defense Fund announced that Kansas faces more severe weather in the coming decades due to climate change, and it will have significant ne...

2022/23 Crop Export Update The historic drought that impacted Argentina one year ago resulted in a drastic 38 percent decline in grain production during th...

The International Trade Commission (ITC) announced last week it is upholding its decision that U.S fertilizer companies were harmed by Moroccan and Russian...

Regional News  Wheat shipments through the Suez Canal have fallen 40 percent in the first half of January, due to the ongoing Houthi rebel attacks in...

U.S. Cattle on Feed totaled 11.9 million head on January 1, 2024 (For feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head) Placements in feedlots during December...

Thursday saw the start of a “dead cat bounce” for many oversold CBOT futures contracts, and that trend continued Friday. Corn and wheat futures...

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today; it was right in line with analysts’ pre-report consensus expectations making it neutral and an...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.455/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.9325/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. ...

Tradition Tackles Progress At least twelve EU member states are trying to block the introduction of lab-grown meat. The pretense is that such a product &ld...

The Market Pressured by improved weather in Brazil, favorable crop conditions in Argentina, and a softening Chinese market, March soybeans declined 0.89 pe...

Export Sales and Shipments for January 5-11, 2024 Wheat:  Net sales of 707,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up noticeably from the previous wee...

After hitting new contract lows in corn and wheat again today, there was a turnaround led by wheat. However, without any change in the underlying fundament...