Macroeconomic and commodity market policy factors were front and center for the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, following the devaluation of the Argentine...

Wishful Thinking on China Retaliation The U.S. House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist has...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.795/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0525/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close...

Decades ago, when wheat was king, WPI had many analysts keenly interested in wheat. Since then, corn became king and now soybeans jockey for top honors. Wh...

Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 December 2023 As of 8 December, the Russian government reports the wheat crop at 95 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.6 MMT...

The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the three legs of the soy crush all trading lower amid technical selling and a steep selloff in crude oil values. In con...

Aggies See China Pain China has been the top market for U.S. agriculture since 2020 and its share in some products is overwhelming. For this reason, a coal...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.255/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. ...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s rate of inflation dropped a little in November to 34.6 perc...

The CBOT’s Monday trade saw two notable reversals from the recent week’s trends. The first was the strength in soybean futures, which erased al...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.815/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.095/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close.&nb...

GI’s for EV’s Europe’s leaders’ real concern when meeting with their Chinese counterparts last week was not the growing trade defic...

The New Delhi playbook for staple crops is to offer farmers a generous Minimum Support Price (MSP), donate the extra output to the nation’s poor, and...

Argentina’s Policy and Macroeconomic Situation  Argentina’s trading last week was shortened due to a national holiday on Friday. At the sa...

USDA’s 30 November farm income forecast shows net farm income at $151.1 billion for CY 2023, a decrease of $31.8 billion, or 17.4 percent, relative t...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.3175/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

The December WASDE is not normally a market-moving report, and this year was no exception. The USDA made only mild revisions to U.S. and global grain balan...

Back in October, the initial, or advanced, Q3 GDP report showed the U.S. economy grew 4.9 percent; and on 29 November the GDP estimate was revised up to 5...

South American weather improvement hung over the market all week, and though December's WASDE report reflected a dent imposed on Brazil's soybean crop by d...

The Biden Administration and others have already shown their animosity toward Big Ag. Heading into 2024 the hate may grow larger. The President’s ree...

Confidence in short positions was slightly challenged today as traders positioned ahead of tomorrow’s USDA December WASDE. January soybeans jumped ba...

CME cattle futures have grabbed the attention in the U.S., but in China, hog futures are the focus. January hog futures on the Dalian exchange are at a new...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. ...

Hobbling AI The EU has neared agreement on doing what it does best, regulating. This time its target is artificial intelligence. France and Germany were re...

Export Sales and Shipments for November 24-30, 2023. Wheat:  Net sales of 356,400 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 43 percent from the previou...

The CBOT turned red for the day with the rallies in wheat and corn fading with the December WASDE looming on Friday. USDA reported fresh SRW wheat export s...

NGT Optimism EU Parliament rapporteur for the Commission’s proposed new policy on new genomic techniques (NGT’s) is Jessica Polfjärd and s...

Global demand for avocados has been growing at 7 percent per year. Mexico produces 30 percent of the world’s avocados but supplies 45 percent of thos...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.335/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&n...

Russian Grain Markets: 27 November–1 December 2023 Russian markets finally broke the bear which has been present almost since the beginning of the ne...

Trends at the CBOT continue to diverge with wheat futures rallying sharply on fresh Chinese interest in U.S. SRW wheat. The wheat market has been the upsid...

As Matt Herrington has been covering, Live cattle and feeder cattle futures have been volatile since the day after Thanksgiving – but trending mostly...

The multi-year effort to negotiate a trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur appears to have run into too many hurdles on both sides of the Atlantic. F...

Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) have been trending higher in recent years. The World Health Organization describes the disease as &ld...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.905/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Red Sea and Arabian Sea shipments in transit are being attacked by forces...

Rains in Brazil and Argentina heavily influenced the CBOT to start the week and sent the entire soy complex sharply lower. The precipitation also weighed o...

Decoupling or Redirected There is much academic debate over whether U.S.- China trade has been decoupled, or merely redirected with Chinese goods diverted...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.205/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. ...

As the 28th United Nations climate summit (COP28) convenes in Dubai, sustainability and climate issues are the theme of the week, making it timely to look...

Regional News  On 1 December, Bulgaria lifted its import ban on four agricultural products (wheat, corn sunflower seed, and rapeseed) from Ukraine.&nb...

Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving at high speed and advanced 10 percent last week, which put the total harvest above 35 percent of the are...

The CBOT continued its mid-week trends into the week’s end with corn and wheat futures posting another higher day with short covering and technical,...

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8475/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0275/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...

Pork Plant Line Speeds USDA extended the New Swine Inspection System (NSIS) faster line speed trial period for 90 days; the program was scheduled to expire...

The Market Improved weather in Brazil took its toll on soybeans this week, taking Chicago prices down 5.75 cents to $13.25/bushel for the January contract...

Tautological Rabbit Hole The COP28 meeting in Dubai came to an agreement on a loss and damage fund whereby rich countries help poor countries weather the a...

It was a mixed day for futures trading with corn and wheat rebounding from early week contract lows but the soy complex sliding lower on a weak petroleum m...

The broiler sector has been “right-sizing” since Q3 after months of margin pressures reducing placement of broiler chicks.  That, along w...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales and Shipments for November 17-23, 2023. Wheat:  Net sales of 622,800 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up noticeably from the previous...

Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large ga...

Atlantic Risks EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovkis is a serious and competent politician. He is now signaling that reaching a conceptual deal with the...

Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.8575/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 November 2023  Russian markets remained quite volatile, however, the Asian area finally stabilized because Kazakhst...

Tuesday’s ag commodity trade featured several interesting developments, not the least of which was the bullish key reversal in KCBT wheat. All three...

A recurring issue since 2016 under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been EPA’s administration of the small refinery exemption (SRE) program. A c...

Last week’s win in the Netherlands by Gert Wilders was a stunning refutation of the Green Deal. The policy’s former protagonist in the EU Commi...

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.72/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.  J...

China has just over 18 percent of the world’s population, but its food imports and consumption share of world food supplies varies greatly. Soybeans...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Wadi Poultry, a division of Wadi Group, has seen the purcha...

Ag futures were almost uniformly red to start the week with wheat, corn, and the livestock markets extending Friday’s weakness and, in many cases, ca...

Rebalancing Global Meat The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization will present a plan at next week’s COP28 meeting in Dubai that calls for ric...

Analysts have noted the analog years for adverse El Niño impacts in Brazil as 2015/16 and 2020/21. As in those years, Brazil has had limited moistur...

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.555/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.61/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close.&n...

Macroeconomics and Policy Argentina’s outgoing presidential administration’s first post-election measure was to increase the percentage of fore...

Congress returns tomorrow after its Thanksgiving holiday break to face a long list of issues and the time pressurs of finalizing government funding bills...

Regional News  Russia has shipped two vessels of wheat to Somalia and Burkina Faso as part of the country’s promise to send free grain to Africa...

Export Sales and Shipments for November 10-16, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 171,800 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 3 percent from the previous...

The CBOT and CME markets were mostly lower to end the holiday-shortened week with favorable weather forecasts for Brazil pressuring the grains and oilseeds...

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close...

The Market Oilseed values temporarily dipped this week on improved moisture in Brazil. The change is temporary as the 6-15 day outlook calls for a return t...

Major Dairy Defeat In a major policy defeat for U.S. dairy, a USMCA dispute settlement panel ruled that Canada’s dairy quotas do not limit U.S. acces...

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate four times in 2023 for a cumulative rate hike of 100 basis points, though it left rates unchanged in Sept...

U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 23 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and...

CBOT grain and oilseed futures were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders reduced risk ahead of Thursday’s market closure and the shortened trading da...

The Biden Administration went through a rapid succession of descriptors for its trade policy toward China before settling on de-risking. It initially calle...

October 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were down sharply from September and were 6.4 percent below October 2022 as beef, pork, and chicken stocks c...

Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 November 2023  The Russian market remained quite volatile with European Russia bearish and the Asian region bullish...

Wheat futures were the exception to the CBOT’s trend-following trade on Tuesday, as the market rallied following another round of Russian attacks on...

African Farming This is said to be the African Century. Over half the world’s population growth to 2050 will come from that region of the world. Yet...

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...

Yesterday, USDA’s Ag Marketing Service published the premiums for hogs compliant with California Proposition 12 and Massachusetts Question 3 under th...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports for 2023/24 will be lower according to a r...

The story of the CBOT was the sharply lower opening soybeans and soymeal suffered overnight, thanks to heavy rains in Brazil over the weekend. Those early...

Cultivated versus Uncouth The Italian Chamber of Deputies passed a law banning the sale of cultivated meat. The law will prevent the production and sale of...

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Regional News  After a rainy winter crop planting season, Europe’s weather looks to finally change to favor fieldwork in the next week. The 7-da...

Argentine Policy Updates Last night, Argentina’s Liberal candidate for president, Javier Milei, was elected as the next President of Argentina and wi...

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report on Friday; the total inventory of cattle on feed in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.9 millio...

U.S. Cattle on Feed was up 2 percent on November 1, 2023 to total 11.9 million head. The inventory was 2 percent above November 1, 2022. Placements in feed...

Most of this week’s early rally in the grain and oilseed markets was justified by the challenging weather in Brazil. The weather has not only impacte...

New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at their 1 November meeting; Chairman Powell noted that this was a pause to let the 100-basis point incre...

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.5075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&...

The Market Drought in Brazil drove soybean prices higher and now rain in Brazil is driving the market lower. If it turns back dry as expected, then pricing...

The market was in the red across the board at the open and mostly stayed that way. The exceptions being corn and lean hogs. They broke to the upside late m...

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.535/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales and Shipments for November 3-9, 2023. Wheat:  Net sales of 176,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 50 percent from the previous...

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 November at 101.9...

Inclusive Trade Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) is framework embraced by the Democratic Party in the U.S. to remedy past discrimination, particularl...

The CBOT found the dip lower it attempted on Tuesday but that bulls firmly rejected. Amid improved weather forecasts for Brazil and an otherwise quiet news...

DE&I Comes to Trade It is busy this week on the U.S. West Coast. Asian leaders are negotiating with their American hosts on APEC, IPEF, and U.S. &ndash...

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7075/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.605/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.&n...

The American Salad Belt is largely on the West Coast and Congressional representatives mostly from that region have introduced legislation (The Specialty C...

Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 November 2023  Russian markets remained quite volatile last week with the European area stable and bearish but the A...

Bears tried to push the soy complex and corn lower in Tuesday’s early trade as they hoped for a correction following Monday’s rally. That was n...

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.72/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...

This is a topic WPI has reported on many times in the past couple of weeks, either directly or indirectly: the state of a continuing resolution (CR) to kee...

Just as North America both produces and consumes most of the world’s turkey meat (with a small honorable mention to Brazil), it also has a unique fas...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan has begun shipments of grain to the West Bank as part of its 45,00...

The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with sharp rallies in soymeal and soybeans creating spillover buying for the rest of the grain markets. Funds...

New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...

Over-greening Bees In 2018 we were all warned that a third or more of our food supply was being threatened by the struggles facing bees. Europe focused on...

The Biden Administration has cranked up its outreach to politically red rural America with USTR Katherine Tai now following President Biden’s focus o...

Wheat Thanks to the recent good weather, Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving from north to south and total harvest has reached 15 percent of the a...

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.79/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...

U.S. President Biden and Chinese President Xi will meet in San Francisco on Wednesday to discuss key geopolitical issues and “managed trade.” T...

Through 9 November, Ukraine’s grain harvest reached 90 percent of the total area and spanned 9.84 million hectares (MHa). The total crop is 51.275 MM...

The WASDE’s bearish implications continued to push CBOT futures lower on Friday with funds finding little reason to abandon short positions in corn a...

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7525/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

The “four corners” of the Congressional Agriculture Committees – the respective chairmen and ranking minority members of the House and Se...

The Market Large flash export sales, the smallest U.S. soybean production in five years, and the lowest domestic stocks in eight years could not overcome t...

China Teed Up President Biden meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week outside the APEC meeting. Bloomberg suggests there could be a quid pro quo wit...

Soybeans: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks, up 25 million on higher yields, to 245 million bushels. The U.S. season-average so...

Corn: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is higher U.S. ending stocks by 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by produce...

Wheat: USDA’s outlook for 2023/24 is for higher U.S. ending stocks by 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average U.S. fa...

  Export Sales and Shipments for October 27 to November 2, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 354,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 29 percent fr...

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.68/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.8075/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Futures closed mostly lower with USDA’s mid-session November WASDE report causing a drop-off on higher production and stocks.  U.S. Wheat Incr...