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Proposed New Subsidy Program

Two Georgia Congressional officials, Senator Jon Osoff and Rep. Sanford Bishop, have introduced legislation that would extend crop loss payments to seasona...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 July–2 August 2024 Russian Vice Premier Patroushev announced that Russia is 40 percent done with harvesting small grains. T...

Politics and Trade; EU Livestock to Get Smaller

Politics and Trade Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris picked Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to be her vice president nominee on the ticket and he...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0525/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&...

RAPP versus Exchange Rate

USDA is making another $300 million available to U.S. agricultural export marketers under the Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP). The program w...

Former House Aggie Tim Walz is Democrat Veep Candidate

Vice President Kamala Harris has picked Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate a week before the Democrat National Convention in Chicago. Walz is...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply has increased its selling price of wheat...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.395/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Grains Trade Higher Amid Rout in Cattle and Equities

Despite bearish supply and demand outlooks coupled with the ongoing selloff in global equity markets, the CBOT’s major grain and oilseed markets turn...

Ideas for Sustenance

Too long; didn’t read, so summarized here.  Successful Farming: Farmers are trying new things. We are looking at the data from new harvest metho...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the wheat planting has ended with a total seeded area of 6.3 Mha, aligning it with other private estimates of 6...

Another Extension for BTC Proposed

Representatives Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and Ann Kuster (D-New Hampshire) last month introduced the Biodiesel Tax Credit Extension Act of 2024 that would extend...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia’s ag ministry says the country exported a record volume of 70 MMT of grain in 2023/24 but that total will fall to 60 MMT f...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report shows that funds were – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline – cautiously covering shorts in corn and soy...

Oilseed Highlights: Another Week Closer to a Bottom

The Market With expectations of higher U.S. soybean output this season than officially suggested thus far, new crop positions printed new contract lows thi...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0325/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for July 19-25, 2024 Wheat:  Net sales of 286,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week...

Trade Influences

Although the Biden Administration is pushing quasi-trade agreements like APEP and IPEF, they are only expected to impact the movement of goods and services...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.985/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Record Plunge in Farm Income

Tyne Morgan of the U.S. Farm Report points out that U.S. farm income is facing its largest drop in value in 2024 and its largest ever two year drop in real...

Livestock Roundup: Ground Beef Reaching Record Price Levels

Labor is still playing a role in cattle markets as it has since the COVID interruptions in 2020, and the labor shortage during the high beef demand period...

Market Commentary: Good Crop with Improving Conditions

This growing season’s major crops were already looking good, and now weather conditions are improving. If that doesn’t spell bearish, how about...

Activists Lose; AI Hurdles; Chevron and Biofuels

Activists Lose As of this week, there are 136 statewide ballot measures to be voted on this November in 39 different states. That is down more than 15 perc...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9975/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&...

Cow-Calf Margins Hit Records, Imply Herd Rebuilding

U.S. cow-calf producers are facing unprecedented economic incentives to expand the beef herd with expected production margins hitting record highs this yea...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 July 2024 This season Russia will fail to produce a record crop despite an earlier harvesting campaign. The Ministry of...

Market Commentary: CBOT Declines After Crop Conditions Didn’t

Better-than-expected crop ratings and shifting global weather forecasts sent the CBOT lower again on Tuesday. Monday’s Crop Conditions report showed...

A Buffet of Thoughts

Summarized policy ideas under current debate. Technology Revolutions: The U.S. has not missed many (computers, space, nuclear power, semiconductors, solar,...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.05/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.24/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s year end wheat stocks are expected to drop by 61 percent d...

Market Commentary: Bears Concentrate on Soybeans, Wheat Scores Reversal

The CBOT started the week with a collapse in soybeans and the broader soy complex in early trade that pulled corn and wheat lower as well. Soybeans, soyoil...

GMO’s 50 Years On

More than 50 years after direct genetic modification was first identified, and nearly three decades after GMO crop production began in the U.S., it is stil...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. ...

FOMC Preview

The Federal Reserve starts its July meeting tomorrow and has now received the last key data. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) prices – the...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Kazakhstan’s grain harvest is expected to coincide with heavy rains forecast for the next few weeks, which will likely cause a si...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat  According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat planting reached 98.5 percent of the expected 6.3 Mha last week, with som...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

As expected, short-covering was the major theme from the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which showed that managed money funds backed off from t...

Market Commentary: Down on the Day but Some Ups for the Week

Most of the major agricultural commodity contracts opened today’s trading session in the red and stayed that way to the close. Only feeder cattle and...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Friday Shorts

Non-Meat: In a first, a Europe-based company has sought EU approval to market lab-grown meat, in this case fake foie gras. Some member states have already...

Cocoa: Will the Challenges of 2023 Continue into 2024?

Recently, WPI has received requests from a few clients to provide some analysis on the cocoa market.   Clearly, there is a reason for this reques...

June Cold Storage Report

June 2024 total red meat and poultry stocks were up slightly from May but 5.4 percent below June 2023 levels due to sharp declines in poultry and pork stoc...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for July 12-18, 2024 Wheat:  Net sales of 309,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 47 percent from the previous wee...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3775/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&...

Oilseed Highlights: Good Exports and a Weather Premium

The Market The soy complex is on something of a rebound this week. A weather premium is finally being added as the outlook is hot and dry for August when p...

Livestock Roundup: Dairy Overview

As of 24 July, there have been 170 cases of HPAI in dairy herds across 13 States with the last being 22 July, in Colorado. The first confirmed case was 25...

Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Momentum Switch

The CBOT had relatively little fresh news upon which to trade Wednesday, which meant markets were largely at the mercy of fund positioning and existing tre...

Decline in U.S. Flour Trade

The International Grains Council recently increased its forecast for global flour trade by 11 percent to 16.1 MMT, though that would still be a decline of...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity o...

Counting Chickens: How Many Layers Are There Really?

At the end of June, there were 97.335 million birds depopulated due to HPAI; more than 75 percent at 73.5 birds, were egg layers. So far this month accordi...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1725/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&...

U.S. Policy Battle; WTO Policy Battle; EU Policy Battle

U.S. Policy Battle The two major parties are past the battle over President Biden’s age and should move on to the policy differences. Democrats will...

Cultivating Canola Crystalizes

In just four years, U.S. production of canola has expanded by 73 percent, albeit from a smaller base. The production of biodiesel and renewable diesel are...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s government announced record local wheat purchases of 6.3 MMT...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.15/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.48/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. ...

Weekend Reading Insights

Because the information superhighway is tl;dr, we did the work for you and summarized the most relevant. Economic Growth: It is not just the result of buil...

Perceived Rice Shortage

Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and...

Biden Drops Out 107 Days Before Election: What Now?

The 2024 election cycle has been unique from the outset, and it just got more so with President Joe Biden opting to step aside. This came after more than t...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moistu...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia set a new record for wheat exports in MY 2023/24, with the country shipping 55.3 MMT of grain and accounting for 26.1 percent of...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment for oilseed and grain markets with managed money traders remaining ma...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.4275/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close.&n...

Market Commentary: Mixed Week – How Low Can It Go

Trading opened today’s session mostly in the green, except for feeder cattle, but late in the session corn and the soybean complex turned lower. Nota...

Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action

Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succin...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for July 5-11, 2024.   Wheat:  Net sales of 578,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the pr...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.05/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Doubling Down on Protectionism; Conflicting CAP Goals

Doubling Down on Protectionism Typically, the party platforms crafted every four years by Republicans and Democrats are equally meaningless. Some of their...

Oilseed Highlights: Market Stabilizing, For Now

The Market November soybeans traded at a new intrasession contract low of 1031.75/bushel on Thursday, a four-year low, but then bounced back and closed at...

Livestock Roundup: Hog Pressures

Last week, WPI noted in a summer cattle market outlook that 14 percent of the cattle producing regions were in drought, compared to 38 percent last year, w...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Firmer Trends Continue; Ukraine’s Corn in Jeopardy

The CBOT saw generally quiet, steady trade at mid-week, but many players noted firmer undertones as futures stabilize or start to recover from deeply overs...

No Olive Branch; Farm Price Charade

No Olive Branch In 2018, the U.S. began imposing 30-44 percent antidumping and countervailing duties on ripe olives originating in Spain. The EU was aghast...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign...

Trump Picks JD Vance as Running Mate

On the eve of the Republican national nominating convention, Former President Trump has picked freshman Ohio Senator JD Vance, a one-time critic, to be his...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0875/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&n...

Food Security Angst; More Trade Agreements; Ag Regains EU Power

Food Security Angst Norway announced that it would spend $6 million a year for five years to build up a 60–75-thousand-ton grain reserve, or a three-...

Poultry Wins Meat Battle

The latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook plots the growth outlook to 2033 for the major animal proteins and with little surprise, poultry expands its lead...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan has banned the import of wheat and the export of wheat flour in...

Market Commentary: Bearishness Envelops CBOT Trade

The CBOT was sharply lower on Monday with markets seeing continued pressure from Friday’s generally bearish WASDE, favorable Midwest weather trends,...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0425/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.325/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close.&...

WASDE Mid-Year Livestock and Poultry Forecasts

The July WASDE upped the projections for red meat production and trimmed the broiler forecast by 85 million pounds.  The beef forecast is up on heavi...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Grains  Weather  Argentina has faced extreme cold across the country for several days with temperatures well below 0 degrees Celsius for many hou...

Sugar Volatility

It has been a volatile year for global sugar prices. They hit 27.95 cents/pound on 6 November 2023 – the highest since 1980. They fell 30 percent to...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.5075/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and...

Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Fails to Stem Price Decline

The Market The USDA July WASDE was directionally bearish but not as much as expected. The trade initially turned higher after the report’s release bu...

SCOTUS Regulatory Ruling Already Having Impact

On 5 July, WPI reported that the recent Supreme Court decision on Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, which overturned the so-called “Chevron defer...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for the period June 28-July 4, 2024. Wheat:  Net sales of 240,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 primarily for Thailand (60...

Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double

Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went...

Livestock Roundup: Summer Cattle

The beef and cattle market is now past the milestone 4th of July holiday, between Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends that define the high demand season. B...

PRC GMO in USA; Food Aid Dependency; CFTC Musical Chairs

PRC GMO in USA Members of Congress on the House Select Committee on China are furious at USDA for moving forward with approval of a biotech soybean develop...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.7125/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: Bulls Don’t Dare Challenge CBOT Bears

Bears once again dominated trade at the CBOT on Wednesday with a favorable U.S. weather forecast and somewhat surprisingly cheap wheat from Russia proving...

Geopolitical Trade Substitution

Historically, Canada has been the fourth largest producer of green peas and the largest exporter of the product. Canada’s global market share for the...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0725/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.615/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop for...

Trade Barriers or Facilitation; Ag Rises in EU; Biden Regs

Trade Barriers or Facilitiation The WTO reported that its monitoring of various countries evidences that members are introducing more trade-facilitating po...

Wheat Supplies and Price Both Falling

Global wheat ending stocks have been persistently falling now for five years. Ordinarily, price and carryover supplies move inversely but the price of whea...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.085/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.72/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...

Regulatory Agenda for 2024

The Administration has released its regulatory agenda for the rest of 2024. The agenda is a public notice process that details agencies’ work on prop...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in...

Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control

Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report d...

Capital Investment and Productivity

While much of the focus on Europe relates to political instability in the EU, and threats from Russia, there are ample economic issues that also need to be...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the...

Dairy is Trading Despite Headwinds

U.S. dairy exporters have kept product moving despite a strong dollar and softer global demand. Prices for dairy have moved higher and are expected to stay...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Ag Appropriations Overview

Congress is back in session after the 4th of July Independence Day holiday break. But there are only 12 days on the legislative calendar for the month; the...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat  Argentina  Wheat planting slowed last week, and farmers only seeded any additional 4 percent of the estimated area. The main reasons are t...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe saw mixed weather trends last week with showers in western Europe, Scandinavia, and the Balkans. Ukraine received little to no r...

Market Commentary: Lower Volume, Soyoil Spikes, and Short Covering

Volume was expected to be light today given yesterday’s holiday and a weekend ahead. And it was low for corn, soybeans, soymeal, and all three wheats...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for June 21-27, 2024 Wheat:  Net sales of 805,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 primarily for Mexico (154,700 MT), the Phi...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

New Paradigm for Regulatory Policy?

On 28 June, the Supreme Court issued its decision in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (Secretary of Commerce) case, which could have significant impact...

U.S. July Fourth Holiday

Please note that Ag Perspectives will not be published tomorrow, Thursday, 4 July 2024 in observance of the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. We will resu...

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower

Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade...

Transatlantic Monopsonists; Ex-Im Battle Continues

Transatlantic Monopsonists The three coalition partners (EPP, S&D, Renew) set to continue running the EU cannot agree on a sustainability agenda since...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pr...

Corn for Cars; Squeezed Between Two Labors

Corn for Cars Incoming Mexican agriculture minister Julio Berdegue said his country’s new government will not reduce imports of (GMO) yellow corn, bu...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2125/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.81/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&nb...

FMMO Proposal Released by USDA

Yesterday, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released its proposed changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) from the hearing proc...

Corn Basis Pressure Points

Last week’s USDA Quarterly Stocks report revealed that farmers are holding 36 percent more corn in on-farm storage than a year earlier. One rule of t...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year...

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.205/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.9025/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close.&n...

Market Commentary: Changing Winds for Soybeans, Wheat?

CBOT grain futures initially saw continued impacts from Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA reports, but those shockwaves seemed to fade throughout th...

Summary of Weekend Reads

Back by popular demand. Hang on to your seat, this is a whirlwind review of this past summer weekend’s beach reads. Taxes: One of former President Do...

Misalignment of Land and Labor

U.S. fruit and vegetable growers made their annual trek to Capitol Hill but instead of their usual gift of a full box of fresh produce for the Members of C...

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