Recent Livestock Analysis
Market Commentary: Volume Gives Way as Bearish Slide Moderates
There was lower volume in the grain pits today, with perhaps some stronger interest in the last few days of holiday shopping. Traders were not buying corn or soybeans for their loved ones today, but maybe a wee bit of HRS, which closed up today and uniquely was higher for the week. There were...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record Low Placements, Second Lowest Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of November since the series began in 1996, dropping 11 percent on the year due to a tight cattle su...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0975/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.4925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $0.8...
It’s Official, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Record for 2025
December is upon us and the fall calf run all but ended, the beef industry is finalizing its estimates of 2025 profitability and market performance. For cow-calf producers, the results from all but the last two weeks of the year indicate profits easily hit a record high, even on an inflation-ad...
Market Commentary: Corn Firm, Bean Weak, Weak Wheat Rebound
Overall, it remains a sideways market with corn showing the most confidence but overall market weakness that is both seasonal, and reflective of the fundamentals. China’s purchases of soybeans are now humdrum, but rumor of a possible Chinese corn purchase added a little spice to the marke...
Livestock Roundup: Meat Market Recap, Beef is Driver
Reported November meat sales data show meat department sales were positive and have remained so since Q1 of 2023. In all cases, dollar gains were from a combination of inflation and demand growth. Indeed, meat demand has remained remarkably resilient through 2025. On a per capita basis, chicken...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5225/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, up $0.2 from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 2 December. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Wheat, Soybeans Fall Further
Bears were once again in charge of the CBOT on Wednesday, though they temporarily relinquished control of the corn market to bulls. Funds were aggressive sellers again in soybeans, soymeal, and wheat futures amid bearish fundamentals for each of the commodities and pushed wheat to a new contrac...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0625/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, down $4.2...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins reversed sharply lower last week, swinging back into negative territory after six straight weeks of positive returns. Margins fell $145/head to –$75 as fed cattle prices rebounded $7/cwt (live basis), while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $7/cwt. The rapid compression...
Market Commentary: Downtrend Dominance; Wheat Hits New Lows; Soy Falls on Crush Numbers
Each year, the Chinese zodiac calendar features one animal to mark and typify the coming 365 days. If that process were applied to CBOT trade, Tuesday would have been the “day of the bear”, with all major grain markets ending in the red. The only specific trigger was the bearish NOP...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.365/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.095/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $302.4/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Buying Demand; Livestock Futures Buying Time
Bears were in control of the CBOT again on Monday with technical pressure and bearish fundamental headlines driving prices lower. Soybeans and wheat were the downside leaders for the day as funds accelerated their exit from long positions in these markets amid the chart weakness. Corn futures s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2075/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7175/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $303.5/short ton, up $1 fr...
Market Commentary: Bear, Bear, Every Where a Bear
Today was National Poinsettia Day, a plant that is supposed to symbolize goodwill and success but that is only true for the bears today. There was red all over Chicago and New York as investors counted their blessings of too much grain and too much risk. The only thing rising in value was...
Market Commentary: Low Holiday Cheer
Grain markets traded without conviction today, see-sawing around unchanged and with modest volume. Aggies had WASDE day and outside markets had Fed day, and both events this week were kind of a bust. Some might consider it a positive to lack drama interrupting the holiday period, and that is th...
Livestock Round Up: WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday. The WASDE forecast corn exports for MY 2025-26 hitting a record high, topping the previous record of last year. The net change in the export forecast from a month ago was 125 million bushels, or a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.2/short ton, down $0.1...
Market Commentary: China Buys While Timeline Changes; Wheat Drops on Export Outlook
Once again, the headlines for CBOT trade revolved around news from China, this time in support of both bulls and bears. Bulls benefited from the news of “flash” export sales of 17 Mbu to China and unknown destinations, which was an obvious encouragement to the market. One of the rea...
Market Commentary: Corn Exports Hit Record; WASDE Little Changed for Soy, Wheat
The CBOT wasn’t expecting much from the December WASDE report and USDA delivered fully on those expectations. The headline numbers were the increase of corn exports to a record-breaking 3.2 Bbu and a commensurate reduction in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat were left out of the balance...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.8725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $5 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9375/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $306.3/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Cattle are Hot Again, Grain Not so Much
Despite assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the announcement this morning of nearly a half million tons of new soybean sales to China, the trade just doesn’t see the plausibility of a full 12 MMT of beans being bought near-term by Beijing. Particularly not when commitment...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4475/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0525/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $307.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mexico and Colombia but no new soybeans sales, which was bearish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is reportedly rising as a lead po...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4025/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.195/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $0.1 fr...
Livestock Round Up: Korea, Good News and Bad News for Beef
In January, Korea’s tariff on U.S. beef will drop to zero as laid out in a long schedule as part of the 2012 Korea-U.S. free trade agreement. Prior to the agreement it was 40 percent, in 2025 it was at 2.6 percent. Korea has been a growing market especially for premium cuts of beef, with...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export news, particularly from China. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled in the red for the day with soybeans leading the downside move on anot...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.3/short ton, down $0...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain on Black Sea Tensions; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT initially looked set for a quiet day of post-holiday trade on Tuesday, but that was before Russian President Putin elevated political tensions in the Black Sea region. Putin threatened to increase attacks on Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian tanker vessel...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $3 from yes...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins surged for a fourth consecutive week, jumping $108/head to $228 and marking the strongest profitability in more than two years. Margins rose on the combination of a $5.88/cwt decline in live cattle and an $13.20/cwt drop in dressed cattle prices, while the Choice cutout ease...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3775/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.315/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Cattle on Feed for Nov 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on November 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below November 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.04 million head, 10 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle dur...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.235/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $2.1 fr...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and overtly hostile as it tried to undermine her domestic political support. Beijing’s ban on seafood imports from Japan based on the Fuku...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid a sharp $7.65/cwt decline in live cattle prices and continued firmness in the beef cutout. The spread between the cutout and fed cattle val...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2325/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, down...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that will experience a slowdown is in Amarillo, Texas, which will run just one shift per week. The move to “right-size” the compan...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU MARS Crop Monitoring in Europe report is due out Monday, 24 November, but it has not been released as of WPI’s publishing time. The EU countries voted last Wednesday to postpone the implementation of EUDR and simplify the legislation, the now-mutual agreem...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.25/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $1.6 from...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, whi...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.225/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $4...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two commercial meat duck facilities, and one commercial breeder duck operation in LaGrange and Elkhart Counties. On February 8, 2022, HPAI was ini...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, down $8...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed cattle prices slipped another $4/cwt and the cutout held near recent highs. The move pushed packer profits to their firmest levels since ea...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.59/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $327/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government shutdown. In it, USDA lowered its 2025 red meat production forecast and increased its broiler production outlook. However, the WASDE include...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5725/bushel, up $0.3275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $330.8/short ton, up $8.3 from...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.245/bushel, down $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $322.5/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.47/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-opening through 30 January. Six Democrats voted “yes”, and two Republicans voted “no” on an otherwise party line vote...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3375/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $321/short ton, up $4.1 from yester...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, down $3.1 f...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an estimated $15 as fed cattle prices fell another $2/cwt while beef values rose by the same amount. The outlook for packer margins is increasingl...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $2.9 from yester...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.17/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.1/short ton, up $4.4 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.075/bushel, down $0.2675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $312.7/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for 21 November. There will be no data from the October report, but that information could be available through the month-to-month...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.4/short ton, down $3...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit an estimated -$0.89 as fed cattle prices collapsed $7/cwt and beef values rose nearly $4/cwt. Packer margins should continue to improve with...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $0.8 fro...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promotions to attract customers, mainly featuring chicken. Restaurant traffic declined 2 percent in September, and 30 percent of commercial foodser...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.945/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $2.2 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9525/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $306.5/short ton, up $8.3 from ye...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were still very weak by historical records (-$143/head) but at least started to trend in the right direction. Beef values are holding steady hea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $4.1 from y...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There were slight gains for soymeal, HRW and hogs, with the rest of the complex showing red. There was good volume for a Friday in corn, soybeans,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.8...
Trump’s Beef Market Fiasco: The Why and Wherefores of Market Fundamentals
As Matt Herrington and Gary Blumenthal covered Wednesday, Trump has announced big plans for the beef market (Market Commentary, Disconnected Beef) which were largely a bust. Gary wrote, “Live cattle futures pulled back sharply on Wednesday with no apparent fundamental catalyst, other than...
Forecasting 2026 Cattle Inventories: Beef and Dairy Herd Increases Expected
The cattle industry – and beef in particular – has been in the headlines more than usual this year with record-breaking prices for beef and cattle. The market dynamics – long known and anticipated by the industry – have even draw the attention of President Trump, who imm...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been less overall price significant in corn, it was the seventh session higher in the past eight. Soybeans have closed higher in six of the past sev...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4475/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, up $2.3 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Analysts’ Guesses
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report would normally be released tomorrow. It is suspended however due to the government shutdown. The question is whether the report will be published. What we have is history to look back on. During previous shutdowns in 2013 the report was published at th...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $3.1 from yes...
Disconnected Beef
U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. The President called on ranchers to lower their prices even though they are set by the market based on supply and demand. Jawboning will caus...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3075/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $1.9...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on markets. The API sent a letter to congress saying it reversed its earlier support for year-round sales of E15 fuel and said the government...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the sixth straight week and were negative for the third week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$217/head – down $100 on the week - pressured by a sharp rally in fed cattle prices and weaker beef values. WPI forecasts that packers will see deeply negative mar...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4 from ye...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of course, it is more complex than that but those are authoritative sources. The corn market did not wait for such signals, instead rallying...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.195/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281/short ton, up $4.1 from...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked out magic" Trump said, with no details offered. As...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
With October and the fall calf run now officially here, the beef industry is getting its first look at the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, which means Q4...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, up $1 from y...
Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks
Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was $320 in today’s dollars. Futures across the board remain elevated, averaging about $380/cwt, an indication that tight supplies will l...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.9/short ton, up $1.6 from y...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the fifth straight week and remained in negative territory for the second week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$118/head, pressured by a modest dip in the Choice cutout and a $3 increase in fed cattle prices. The drop credit also weakened for the sixth consecuti...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...
The Strange Effects of Screwworm
For the first six months of 2025, cattle imports from Mexico are down 73.1 percent due to restrictions from the discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. From January to July 2024 there were 853,976 head imported into the U.S. from Mexico, but in 2025 that volume over the same time peri...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.3/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9675/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.1/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The market was down at the open and then came even more bearish outside influences. Commodity and financial market prices plunged as the t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0675/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275/short ton, down $1.9 f...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis levels provided a brief uplift but that faltered today. China gets mentioned as a possible source of the phantom demand but that seems politi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down...
Livestock Roundup: China is Top Beef Importer of Brazilian and Australian Beef in September
Today was WASDE day, however, due to the government shutdown, that report has been suspended, as have been the reports usually highlighted below. Brazil's beef exports to China rose 38.3 percent in September from a year earlier, reaching 187,340 MT, according to the Brazilian industry group Abr...
Q4 Cattle and Beef Pricing Outlook
Beef and cattle markets are getting ready to see their much-anticipated seasonal rally ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, but beef packers won’t be receiving any presents from the market this year. WPI’s latest outlook calls for a somewhat subdued seasonal pre-ho...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Firm on Bull Spreading (and Exports?); Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly firmer on Wednesday with rumors circulating that export business is getting done – perhaps aggressively – without the USDA to publish the daily “flash” export sales report. Bull spreading in corn and soybeans likely belies this activity, as does the r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $278/short ton, up $1.1 from yes...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0675/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.22/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down $0.2 f...
Livestock Industry Margins
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the lack of slaughter data in particular, estimating livestock operations’ profit margins has become more complex. Fortunately, the AMS market reporters are still working, so the WPI has most of the data we usually require for calculating thes...
Market Commentary: Markets Cautiously Calm Amid Shutdown but Volatility Looms
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly aware of the ongoing government shutdown. Monday’s trade saw the ag markets trade somewhat cautiously with few willing to add much risk amid the reduced USDA data (we say “reduced” and not “eliminated”...
Market Commentary: Limping Home After a Dreary Week
Friday involved relatively lower volume and modest price changes as new inputs remain limited. And it wasn’t really due to the lack of USDA reports due to the shutdown since they may not have involved anything market moving. Harvest is progressing, competitors have ample supplies, and buy...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.18/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $278.6/short ton, down $0.7...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2375/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, up $5.7 fr...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Livestock Roundup: Shutdown Affects Reports; Screwworm Drug Approved
The federal government has been shut down since midnight on Wednesday and various USDA reports have been suspended. This includes some of the data typically reported in the Thursday livestock report, including slaughter data and livestock and poultry inventories. USDA posted o...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.6/short ton, up $0.3 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than traders and analysts expected. The findings are even more consequential as the U.S. heads towards a massive 2025 corn harvest and a soybean crop t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.3/short ton, down $2.1...
Livestock Industry Margins
Last week, beef packer margins fell for the third straight week and hovered just above breakeven levels. Margins fell about $31/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $12/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a $5/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packers a...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ existing downward momentum. This bearishness was furthered by the looming U.S. government shutdown and China’s absence from the U.S. grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.4/short ton, up $0.8...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and wheat. Funds added nearly 85,000 contracts to their all-ag futures net short last week and continue to hold a neutral/s...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/cwt. December corn moved below the 20-day moving average, a bearish signal. While corn opened and closed in the red, soybeans fl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.6/short ton, up $1.4...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report yesterday. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 September was 74.5 million head, down 1 percent from September 2024, but up 1 percent from 1 June 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.93 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, and dow...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh wound, the patient is at least comforted. The quick end to Argentina’s export tax holiday means that it successfully supplanted a lot of U...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.27/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.2/short ton, down $2.9 fro...
Livestock Roundup: Australia Beef Production
According to Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), that country is forecast to produce a record 2.79 MMT of beef in 2025. This is a large turnaround after drought, financial pressures, and animal welfare regulations had pressured the industry. For the near term, Australia is boosting exports to...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.09/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.1/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Exports Drive Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as strong export demand – even in spite of Argentina’s temporary export tax cut – continues to drive the grain market outlook. Corn demand remains especially strong with Mexico booking another several cargoes overnight despite its own outl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.205/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $277.3/short ton, down $2.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins pulled back last week but remained positive for just the sixth time this year. Margins fell about $64/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $10/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a modest $1.80/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packe...
Market Commentary: Negative Icing on a Bearish Cake; Cattle Rally as NWS Found 70 Miles from Border
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the week as markets had a negative reaction to surprising policy developments from South America. Argentina’s government announced a zero-export tax policy on grains through 31 October in an attempt to boost domestic reserves of U.S. dollars (for detail...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.11/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $280.1/short ton, down $...
Plan to Rebuild Beef Cattle Supply is Coming This Week
Yesterday, USDA released a statement confirming the detection of New World Screwworm (NSW) in in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the Mexican state of Nuevo León, less than 70 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border. The case was confirmed by the National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Sa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders cutting back short positions across the ag space as technical conditions strengthened for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Funds cut their net short across all ag futures by 79 percent last week and are now flat the market, holding just 17,000 c...
Market Commentary: Absent Chinese Demand, Supply Dominates the Mood
Markets were over-weight on the Xi – Trump phone call this morning. The phone call went well enough but after it became clear there was no deal on ag or soybeans, the latter turned south. Beans and meal had traded higher overnight and at the open, but like all three wheats, closed on loss...
Cattle of Feed - Sep 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on September 1, 2025. The inventory was 1 percent below September 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.78 million head, 10 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle du...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.1 million head, 99 percent of last year, as expected. Placements and marketings came in slightly more bullish than the pre-report estimates, but still close, within one perc...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.255/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284/short ton, down $0.7 fro...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ profitability outlook continues to defy all bullish expectations with projected returns surging to all-time highs. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis are also forecast to rise above 2014 and 2015, which should provide producers with strong incentive...
Market Commentary: Looking for Demand Amidst Ample Supplies
Grain and oilseed trading was mostly in the red today, with livestock markets trading higher. Volume was higher today in soymeal, but otherwise it was modest and even relatively low in corn. Markets tend to drift when lacking any major new directional inputs. USDA’s weekly Export Sa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.7/short ton, down $1...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 98.7 and 99.7 percent of 1 September 2024. Those estimates imply an on-fee...
Market Commentary: Markets Hopeful but Guarded on China; CBOT Falls on Demand Worries
Technical selling, disappointment with the USDA’s latest policy moves, and favorable rains across the Midwest took a bearish toll on the CBOT markets Wednesday. The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut interest rates today and signaled a more dovish approach for the next several months, whic...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4375/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.7/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Perfect Micro-Storm for Grains
The CBOT was higher on Tuesday in a continuation of the post-WASDE exuberance. Rather than USDA’s world balance sheets providing a reason to rally, however, it was the Crop Progress report, rumors of new export business, and progress in a U.S.-China trade agreement that motivated the day&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.295/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4975/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.1/short ton, up $0.4 from yes...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the sixth straight week to put returns at their highest point in two years. The increase in margins came despite a pullback in beef values as packers were able to push fed cattle prices even lower and increase profits. The big concern for packers in the next 3-4...
Market Commentary: Waiting for Confirmation or Contradiction
The CBOT was mostly in the red to start the week with the bullishness from Friday’s WASDE report failing to trigger enthusiasm from bulls this week. Corn and soybeans both tried to rally and follow Friday’s bullish action, but quickly triggered farmer/hedge selling and profit taking...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.7/short ton, down $2.9...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders embarking on a second straight week of net short selling across the ag space as they slightly expanded a relatively neutral position. The expansion of the short position came mostly from selling in soybeans, soyoil, and SRW wheat, with min...
Market Commentary: USDA Surprises; Market Marches Its Own Beat
While there was some red flashing early in today’s trading session, by the close all major grain and oilseed contracts were in the green. Ahead of USDA’s September WASDE report, the trade was focused on yield cuts, which had also been the principal output of various private sector c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4625/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.6/short ton, up $0.9 from ye...
WASDE Livestock: More Poultry and Less Red Meat
Despite record high yields from corn and soybeans in today’s WASDE, the forecast for red meat and broiler production in 2025 was reduced slightly from the August report. Both beef and pork production were down, while broiler production was up. For 2025, beef was down on lower fed cattle...
Market Commentary: Calm, Confident, But Correct?
The trading before a major WASDE report always entails differing vibes. It is more volatile when there is wide variance in expectations, and more subdued when the mood is more sublime. This might count as the latter except where it wasn’t. The volume trading corn, wheat and so...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.215/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.7/short ton, up $1.9 from...
China’s Beef Outlook Amid a Shrinking Middle Class
Recently, the USDA FAS lowered its forecast for China’s 2025 beef consumption based on higher prices and the Middle Kingdom’s slowing economy. The USDA forecast consumption at 11.17 MMT, down 3 percent from 2024 and the first annual decline since 2017. The motivation behind th...
Market Commentary: Calm for the Day but Geopolitics Hint at Looming Volatility
The CBOT was solidly in the red on Wednesday while cattle futures regained some of their former strength. Markets had to process multiple headlines at the national/international political level, which led to some mild risk-off trade. Mostly, however, for grains, the looming WASDE dominated the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.17/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.8/short ton, down $3.2...
Market Commentary: A Tale of Two Markets: Grains Consolidate While Cattle Correction Accelerates
Note: WPI’s data supplier for futures pricing and data experienced a significant outage on Tuesday, 9 September. All prices/quotes in this article are believed to be correct, but clients should double-check values before acting on any information contained herein. The ag markets sho...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2025/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $289/short ton, up $3.4 f...
EV’s, Pork, and Trade
Last Friday China announced it would impose temporary anti-dumping duties on pork imports from the EU. China's commerce ministry said that the investigation has "preliminarily determined that imports of relevant pork and pig by-products originating in the European Union&nb...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the fifth straight week and added about $68/head in profits to put returns to processing back in a very healthy range. Margins are now around $80/head, which is on part with the 2020-2015 average. The increase in margins comes as beef prices hover near all-time...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3375/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.6/short ton, up $1.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Technical Momentum Shifts at Odds with Fundamentals
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with technical factors driving short covering and some cautious fresh long buying. There wasn’t much from a fundamental standpoint to drive the move, but the technical picture is firming for most commodities. Corn saw substantial follow-through...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders breaking a three-week trend of net short covering in the ag space as managed money traders expanded their almost-neutral positions. The expansion of short holdings came primarily from selling across the three soy complex contracts and from...
Market Commentary: Ending on a Sour Note
The weak jobs report sent most economic indices lower, except for gold. The dollar slumped lower despite the increased likelihood of interest rate cuts. Corn, soybeans and some wheat contract teased higher at the start of the session but they couldn’t hold. There was yet another new contr...
Post-Labor Day Look at Pork and Beef Markets
With Labor Day behind us, here is a look at the meat market going into fall. Total hog slaughter for last week was estimated at 2.391 million head, 1.5 percent lower than a year ago, making this the 15th consecutive week below year ago levels. Seasonal national average weights are starting to t...
Market Commentary: Some Rebounds, Some New Contract Lows
Most of the board traded in the red to start today’s trading session. There is too much corn and soybeans and not enough prospective buyers. All three major wheat contracts hit new lows today. Except for corn, major contracts are bearishly trading below major moving averages. Grower group...
Market Commentary: Volume Gives Way as Bearish Slide Moderates
There was lower volume in the grain pits today, with perhaps some stronger interest in the last few days of holiday shopping. Traders were not buying corn or soybeans for their loved ones today, but maybe a wee bit of HRS, which closed up today and uniquely was higher for the week. There were...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record Low Placements, Second Lowest Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of November since the series began in 1996, dropping 11 percent on the year due to a tight cattle su...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0975/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.4925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $0.8...
It’s Official, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Record for 2025
December is upon us and the fall calf run all but ended, the beef industry is finalizing its estimates of 2025 profitability and market performance. For cow-calf producers, the results from all but the last two weeks of the year indicate profits easily hit a record high, even on an inflation-ad...
Market Commentary: Corn Firm, Bean Weak, Weak Wheat Rebound
Overall, it remains a sideways market with corn showing the most confidence but overall market weakness that is both seasonal, and reflective of the fundamentals. China’s purchases of soybeans are now humdrum, but rumor of a possible Chinese corn purchase added a little spice to the marke...
Livestock Roundup: Meat Market Recap, Beef is Driver
Reported November meat sales data show meat department sales were positive and have remained so since Q1 of 2023. In all cases, dollar gains were from a combination of inflation and demand growth. Indeed, meat demand has remained remarkably resilient through 2025. On a per capita basis, chicken...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5225/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, up $0.2 from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 2 December. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Wheat, Soybeans Fall Further
Bears were once again in charge of the CBOT on Wednesday, though they temporarily relinquished control of the corn market to bulls. Funds were aggressive sellers again in soybeans, soymeal, and wheat futures amid bearish fundamentals for each of the commodities and pushed wheat to a new contrac...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0625/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, down $4.2...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins reversed sharply lower last week, swinging back into negative territory after six straight weeks of positive returns. Margins fell $145/head to –$75 as fed cattle prices rebounded $7/cwt (live basis), while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $7/cwt. The rapid compression...
Market Commentary: Downtrend Dominance; Wheat Hits New Lows; Soy Falls on Crush Numbers
Each year, the Chinese zodiac calendar features one animal to mark and typify the coming 365 days. If that process were applied to CBOT trade, Tuesday would have been the “day of the bear”, with all major grain markets ending in the red. The only specific trigger was the bearish NOP...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.365/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.095/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $302.4/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Buying Demand; Livestock Futures Buying Time
Bears were in control of the CBOT again on Monday with technical pressure and bearish fundamental headlines driving prices lower. Soybeans and wheat were the downside leaders for the day as funds accelerated their exit from long positions in these markets amid the chart weakness. Corn futures s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2075/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7175/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $303.5/short ton, up $1 fr...
Market Commentary: Bear, Bear, Every Where a Bear
Today was National Poinsettia Day, a plant that is supposed to symbolize goodwill and success but that is only true for the bears today. There was red all over Chicago and New York as investors counted their blessings of too much grain and too much risk. The only thing rising in value was...
Market Commentary: Low Holiday Cheer
Grain markets traded without conviction today, see-sawing around unchanged and with modest volume. Aggies had WASDE day and outside markets had Fed day, and both events this week were kind of a bust. Some might consider it a positive to lack drama interrupting the holiday period, and that is th...
Livestock Round Up: WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday. The WASDE forecast corn exports for MY 2025-26 hitting a record high, topping the previous record of last year. The net change in the export forecast from a month ago was 125 million bushels, or a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.2/short ton, down $0.1...
Market Commentary: China Buys While Timeline Changes; Wheat Drops on Export Outlook
Once again, the headlines for CBOT trade revolved around news from China, this time in support of both bulls and bears. Bulls benefited from the news of “flash” export sales of 17 Mbu to China and unknown destinations, which was an obvious encouragement to the market. One of the rea...
Market Commentary: Corn Exports Hit Record; WASDE Little Changed for Soy, Wheat
The CBOT wasn’t expecting much from the December WASDE report and USDA delivered fully on those expectations. The headline numbers were the increase of corn exports to a record-breaking 3.2 Bbu and a commensurate reduction in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat were left out of the balance...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.8725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $5 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9375/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $306.3/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Cattle are Hot Again, Grain Not so Much
Despite assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the announcement this morning of nearly a half million tons of new soybean sales to China, the trade just doesn’t see the plausibility of a full 12 MMT of beans being bought near-term by Beijing. Particularly not when commitment...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4475/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0525/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $307.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mexico and Colombia but no new soybeans sales, which was bearish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is reportedly rising as a lead po...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4025/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.195/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $0.1 fr...
Livestock Round Up: Korea, Good News and Bad News for Beef
In January, Korea’s tariff on U.S. beef will drop to zero as laid out in a long schedule as part of the 2012 Korea-U.S. free trade agreement. Prior to the agreement it was 40 percent, in 2025 it was at 2.6 percent. Korea has been a growing market especially for premium cuts of beef, with...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export news, particularly from China. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled in the red for the day with soybeans leading the downside move on anot...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.3/short ton, down $0...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain on Black Sea Tensions; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT initially looked set for a quiet day of post-holiday trade on Tuesday, but that was before Russian President Putin elevated political tensions in the Black Sea region. Putin threatened to increase attacks on Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian tanker vessel...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $3 from yes...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins surged for a fourth consecutive week, jumping $108/head to $228 and marking the strongest profitability in more than two years. Margins rose on the combination of a $5.88/cwt decline in live cattle and an $13.20/cwt drop in dressed cattle prices, while the Choice cutout ease...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3775/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.315/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Cattle on Feed for Nov 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on November 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below November 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.04 million head, 10 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle dur...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.235/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $2.1 fr...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and overtly hostile as it tried to undermine her domestic political support. Beijing’s ban on seafood imports from Japan based on the Fuku...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid a sharp $7.65/cwt decline in live cattle prices and continued firmness in the beef cutout. The spread between the cutout and fed cattle val...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2325/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, down...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that will experience a slowdown is in Amarillo, Texas, which will run just one shift per week. The move to “right-size” the compan...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU MARS Crop Monitoring in Europe report is due out Monday, 24 November, but it has not been released as of WPI’s publishing time. The EU countries voted last Wednesday to postpone the implementation of EUDR and simplify the legislation, the now-mutual agreem...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.25/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $1.6 from...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, whi...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.225/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $4...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two commercial meat duck facilities, and one commercial breeder duck operation in LaGrange and Elkhart Counties. On February 8, 2022, HPAI was ini...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, down $8...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed cattle prices slipped another $4/cwt and the cutout held near recent highs. The move pushed packer profits to their firmest levels since ea...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.59/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $327/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government shutdown. In it, USDA lowered its 2025 red meat production forecast and increased its broiler production outlook. However, the WASDE include...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5725/bushel, up $0.3275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $330.8/short ton, up $8.3 from...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.245/bushel, down $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $322.5/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.47/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-opening through 30 January. Six Democrats voted “yes”, and two Republicans voted “no” on an otherwise party line vote...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3375/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $321/short ton, up $4.1 from yester...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, down $3.1 f...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an estimated $15 as fed cattle prices fell another $2/cwt while beef values rose by the same amount. The outlook for packer margins is increasingl...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $2.9 from yester...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.17/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.1/short ton, up $4.4 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.075/bushel, down $0.2675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $312.7/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for 21 November. There will be no data from the October report, but that information could be available through the month-to-month...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.4/short ton, down $3...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit an estimated -$0.89 as fed cattle prices collapsed $7/cwt and beef values rose nearly $4/cwt. Packer margins should continue to improve with...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $0.8 fro...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promotions to attract customers, mainly featuring chicken. Restaurant traffic declined 2 percent in September, and 30 percent of commercial foodser...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.945/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $2.2 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9525/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $306.5/short ton, up $8.3 from ye...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were still very weak by historical records (-$143/head) but at least started to trend in the right direction. Beef values are holding steady hea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $4.1 from y...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There were slight gains for soymeal, HRW and hogs, with the rest of the complex showing red. There was good volume for a Friday in corn, soybeans,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.8...
Trump’s Beef Market Fiasco: The Why and Wherefores of Market Fundamentals
As Matt Herrington and Gary Blumenthal covered Wednesday, Trump has announced big plans for the beef market (Market Commentary, Disconnected Beef) which were largely a bust. Gary wrote, “Live cattle futures pulled back sharply on Wednesday with no apparent fundamental catalyst, other than...
Forecasting 2026 Cattle Inventories: Beef and Dairy Herd Increases Expected
The cattle industry – and beef in particular – has been in the headlines more than usual this year with record-breaking prices for beef and cattle. The market dynamics – long known and anticipated by the industry – have even draw the attention of President Trump, who imm...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been less overall price significant in corn, it was the seventh session higher in the past eight. Soybeans have closed higher in six of the past sev...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4475/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, up $2.3 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Analysts’ Guesses
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report would normally be released tomorrow. It is suspended however due to the government shutdown. The question is whether the report will be published. What we have is history to look back on. During previous shutdowns in 2013 the report was published at th...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $3.1 from yes...
Disconnected Beef
U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. The President called on ranchers to lower their prices even though they are set by the market based on supply and demand. Jawboning will caus...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3075/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $1.9...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on markets. The API sent a letter to congress saying it reversed its earlier support for year-round sales of E15 fuel and said the government...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the sixth straight week and were negative for the third week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$217/head – down $100 on the week - pressured by a sharp rally in fed cattle prices and weaker beef values. WPI forecasts that packers will see deeply negative mar...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4 from ye...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of course, it is more complex than that but those are authoritative sources. The corn market did not wait for such signals, instead rallying...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.195/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281/short ton, up $4.1 from...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked out magic" Trump said, with no details offered. As...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
With October and the fall calf run now officially here, the beef industry is getting its first look at the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, which means Q4...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, up $1 from y...
Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks
Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was $320 in today’s dollars. Futures across the board remain elevated, averaging about $380/cwt, an indication that tight supplies will l...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.9/short ton, up $1.6 from y...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the fifth straight week and remained in negative territory for the second week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$118/head, pressured by a modest dip in the Choice cutout and a $3 increase in fed cattle prices. The drop credit also weakened for the sixth consecuti...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...
The Strange Effects of Screwworm
For the first six months of 2025, cattle imports from Mexico are down 73.1 percent due to restrictions from the discovery of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. From January to July 2024 there were 853,976 head imported into the U.S. from Mexico, but in 2025 that volume over the same time peri...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.3/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9675/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.1/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The market was down at the open and then came even more bearish outside influences. Commodity and financial market prices plunged as the t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0675/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275/short ton, down $1.9 f...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis levels provided a brief uplift but that faltered today. China gets mentioned as a possible source of the phantom demand but that seems politi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down...
Livestock Roundup: China is Top Beef Importer of Brazilian and Australian Beef in September
Today was WASDE day, however, due to the government shutdown, that report has been suspended, as have been the reports usually highlighted below. Brazil's beef exports to China rose 38.3 percent in September from a year earlier, reaching 187,340 MT, according to the Brazilian industry group Abr...
Q4 Cattle and Beef Pricing Outlook
Beef and cattle markets are getting ready to see their much-anticipated seasonal rally ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, but beef packers won’t be receiving any presents from the market this year. WPI’s latest outlook calls for a somewhat subdued seasonal pre-ho...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Firm on Bull Spreading (and Exports?); Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly firmer on Wednesday with rumors circulating that export business is getting done – perhaps aggressively – without the USDA to publish the daily “flash” export sales report. Bull spreading in corn and soybeans likely belies this activity, as does the r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $278/short ton, up $1.1 from yes...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0675/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.22/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down $0.2 f...
Livestock Industry Margins
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the lack of slaughter data in particular, estimating livestock operations’ profit margins has become more complex. Fortunately, the AMS market reporters are still working, so the WPI has most of the data we usually require for calculating thes...
Market Commentary: Markets Cautiously Calm Amid Shutdown but Volatility Looms
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly aware of the ongoing government shutdown. Monday’s trade saw the ag markets trade somewhat cautiously with few willing to add much risk amid the reduced USDA data (we say “reduced” and not “eliminated”...
Market Commentary: Limping Home After a Dreary Week
Friday involved relatively lower volume and modest price changes as new inputs remain limited. And it wasn’t really due to the lack of USDA reports due to the shutdown since they may not have involved anything market moving. Harvest is progressing, competitors have ample supplies, and buy...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.18/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $278.6/short ton, down $0.7...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2375/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, up $5.7 fr...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Livestock Roundup: Shutdown Affects Reports; Screwworm Drug Approved
The federal government has been shut down since midnight on Wednesday and various USDA reports have been suspended. This includes some of the data typically reported in the Thursday livestock report, including slaughter data and livestock and poultry inventories. USDA posted o...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.6/short ton, up $0.3 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than traders and analysts expected. The findings are even more consequential as the U.S. heads towards a massive 2025 corn harvest and a soybean crop t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.3/short ton, down $2.1...
Livestock Industry Margins
Last week, beef packer margins fell for the third straight week and hovered just above breakeven levels. Margins fell about $31/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $12/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a $5/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packers a...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ existing downward momentum. This bearishness was furthered by the looming U.S. government shutdown and China’s absence from the U.S. grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.4/short ton, up $0.8...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and wheat. Funds added nearly 85,000 contracts to their all-ag futures net short last week and continue to hold a neutral/s...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/cwt. December corn moved below the 20-day moving average, a bearish signal. While corn opened and closed in the red, soybeans fl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.6/short ton, up $1.4...
Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report yesterday. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 September was 74.5 million head, down 1 percent from September 2024, but up 1 percent from 1 June 2025. Breeding inventory, at 5.93 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, and dow...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh wound, the patient is at least comforted. The quick end to Argentina’s export tax holiday means that it successfully supplanted a lot of U...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.27/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.2/short ton, down $2.9 fro...
Livestock Roundup: Australia Beef Production
According to Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), that country is forecast to produce a record 2.79 MMT of beef in 2025. This is a large turnaround after drought, financial pressures, and animal welfare regulations had pressured the industry. For the near term, Australia is boosting exports to...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.09/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.1/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Exports Drive Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as strong export demand – even in spite of Argentina’s temporary export tax cut – continues to drive the grain market outlook. Corn demand remains especially strong with Mexico booking another several cargoes overnight despite its own outl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.205/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $277.3/short ton, down $2.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins pulled back last week but remained positive for just the sixth time this year. Margins fell about $64/head due to weaker beef prices (exemplified by a $10/cwt decline in the Choice cutout) that offset a modest $1.80/cwt decline in fed cattle prices. The drop credit for packe...
Market Commentary: Negative Icing on a Bearish Cake; Cattle Rally as NWS Found 70 Miles from Border
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the week as markets had a negative reaction to surprising policy developments from South America. Argentina’s government announced a zero-export tax policy on grains through 31 October in an attempt to boost domestic reserves of U.S. dollars (for detail...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.11/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $280.1/short ton, down $...
Plan to Rebuild Beef Cattle Supply is Coming This Week
Yesterday, USDA released a statement confirming the detection of New World Screwworm (NSW) in in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the Mexican state of Nuevo León, less than 70 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border. The case was confirmed by the National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Sa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders cutting back short positions across the ag space as technical conditions strengthened for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Funds cut their net short across all ag futures by 79 percent last week and are now flat the market, holding just 17,000 c...
Market Commentary: Absent Chinese Demand, Supply Dominates the Mood
Markets were over-weight on the Xi – Trump phone call this morning. The phone call went well enough but after it became clear there was no deal on ag or soybeans, the latter turned south. Beans and meal had traded higher overnight and at the open, but like all three wheats, closed on loss...
Cattle of Feed - Sep 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on September 1, 2025. The inventory was 1 percent below September 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.78 million head, 10 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle du...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.1 million head, 99 percent of last year, as expected. Placements and marketings came in slightly more bullish than the pre-report estimates, but still close, within one perc...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.255/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284/short ton, down $0.7 fro...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ profitability outlook continues to defy all bullish expectations with projected returns surging to all-time highs. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis are also forecast to rise above 2014 and 2015, which should provide producers with strong incentive...
Market Commentary: Looking for Demand Amidst Ample Supplies
Grain and oilseed trading was mostly in the red today, with livestock markets trading higher. Volume was higher today in soymeal, but otherwise it was modest and even relatively low in corn. Markets tend to drift when lacking any major new directional inputs. USDA’s weekly Export Sa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.7/short ton, down $1...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 98.7 and 99.7 percent of 1 September 2024. Those estimates imply an on-fee...
Market Commentary: Markets Hopeful but Guarded on China; CBOT Falls on Demand Worries
Technical selling, disappointment with the USDA’s latest policy moves, and favorable rains across the Midwest took a bearish toll on the CBOT markets Wednesday. The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut interest rates today and signaled a more dovish approach for the next several months, whic...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4375/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.7/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Perfect Micro-Storm for Grains
The CBOT was higher on Tuesday in a continuation of the post-WASDE exuberance. Rather than USDA’s world balance sheets providing a reason to rally, however, it was the Crop Progress report, rumors of new export business, and progress in a U.S.-China trade agreement that motivated the day&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.295/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4975/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.1/short ton, up $0.4 from yes...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the sixth straight week to put returns at their highest point in two years. The increase in margins came despite a pullback in beef values as packers were able to push fed cattle prices even lower and increase profits. The big concern for packers in the next 3-4...
Market Commentary: Waiting for Confirmation or Contradiction
The CBOT was mostly in the red to start the week with the bullishness from Friday’s WASDE report failing to trigger enthusiasm from bulls this week. Corn and soybeans both tried to rally and follow Friday’s bullish action, but quickly triggered farmer/hedge selling and profit taking...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.7/short ton, down $2.9...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders embarking on a second straight week of net short selling across the ag space as they slightly expanded a relatively neutral position. The expansion of the short position came mostly from selling in soybeans, soyoil, and SRW wheat, with min...
Market Commentary: USDA Surprises; Market Marches Its Own Beat
While there was some red flashing early in today’s trading session, by the close all major grain and oilseed contracts were in the green. Ahead of USDA’s September WASDE report, the trade was focused on yield cuts, which had also been the principal output of various private sector c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4625/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.6/short ton, up $0.9 from ye...
WASDE Livestock: More Poultry and Less Red Meat
Despite record high yields from corn and soybeans in today’s WASDE, the forecast for red meat and broiler production in 2025 was reduced slightly from the August report. Both beef and pork production were down, while broiler production was up. For 2025, beef was down on lower fed cattle...
Market Commentary: Calm, Confident, But Correct?
The trading before a major WASDE report always entails differing vibes. It is more volatile when there is wide variance in expectations, and more subdued when the mood is more sublime. This might count as the latter except where it wasn’t. The volume trading corn, wheat and so...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.215/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.7/short ton, up $1.9 from...
China’s Beef Outlook Amid a Shrinking Middle Class
Recently, the USDA FAS lowered its forecast for China’s 2025 beef consumption based on higher prices and the Middle Kingdom’s slowing economy. The USDA forecast consumption at 11.17 MMT, down 3 percent from 2024 and the first annual decline since 2017. The motivation behind th...
Market Commentary: Calm for the Day but Geopolitics Hint at Looming Volatility
The CBOT was solidly in the red on Wednesday while cattle futures regained some of their former strength. Markets had to process multiple headlines at the national/international political level, which led to some mild risk-off trade. Mostly, however, for grains, the looming WASDE dominated the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.17/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.8/short ton, down $3.2...
Market Commentary: A Tale of Two Markets: Grains Consolidate While Cattle Correction Accelerates
Note: WPI’s data supplier for futures pricing and data experienced a significant outage on Tuesday, 9 September. All prices/quotes in this article are believed to be correct, but clients should double-check values before acting on any information contained herein. The ag markets sho...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2025/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $289/short ton, up $3.4 f...
EV’s, Pork, and Trade
Last Friday China announced it would impose temporary anti-dumping duties on pork imports from the EU. China's commerce ministry said that the investigation has "preliminarily determined that imports of relevant pork and pig by-products originating in the European Union&nb...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the fifth straight week and added about $68/head in profits to put returns to processing back in a very healthy range. Margins are now around $80/head, which is on part with the 2020-2015 average. The increase in margins comes as beef prices hover near all-time...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3375/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.6/short ton, up $1.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Technical Momentum Shifts at Odds with Fundamentals
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with technical factors driving short covering and some cautious fresh long buying. There wasn’t much from a fundamental standpoint to drive the move, but the technical picture is firming for most commodities. Corn saw substantial follow-through...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders breaking a three-week trend of net short covering in the ag space as managed money traders expanded their almost-neutral positions. The expansion of short holdings came primarily from selling across the three soy complex contracts and from...
Market Commentary: Ending on a Sour Note
The weak jobs report sent most economic indices lower, except for gold. The dollar slumped lower despite the increased likelihood of interest rate cuts. Corn, soybeans and some wheat contract teased higher at the start of the session but they couldn’t hold. There was yet another new contr...
Post-Labor Day Look at Pork and Beef Markets
With Labor Day behind us, here is a look at the meat market going into fall. Total hog slaughter for last week was estimated at 2.391 million head, 1.5 percent lower than a year ago, making this the 15th consecutive week below year ago levels. Seasonal national average weights are starting to t...
Market Commentary: Some Rebounds, Some New Contract Lows
Most of the board traded in the red to start today’s trading session. There is too much corn and soybeans and not enough prospective buyers. All three major wheat contracts hit new lows today. Except for corn, major contracts are bearishly trading below major moving averages. Grower group...