Recent Feed Grains Analysis
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be fed a steady diet of news, and the lack of such inputs from the WASDE gave bears an advantage for the day. Soybeans and corn were the market...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.005/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts this year's total planted area to be higher than the previous year, reaching almost 84 million hectares (Mha), of which 55.8 million are spring crops. The Russian Statistics Agency reported that wheat pr...
Markets Fall on WASDE and Trade War
Today’s March USDA WASDE report did nothing to temper the bearish mood in both commodity and equity markets. Volume was light ahead of the WASDE release and stayed that way. While corn and soybeans traded mostly in the green ahead of the report, wheat had no reason to be bullish. There wa...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged from last month – and the season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. USDA’s global corn outlook is for higher foreign corn production: Increases in India, Russia, and Uk...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, dow...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s change in government wheat importation is said to have led to market confusion and a drop in available wheat supply. The change from GASC to Mostakbal Misr (MM) has caused major changes in buying methods, with intern...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down $2.1 from...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month, which ranges from 100–140 mm from west to east. March began with a similar trend, bringing heavy rains across the country, particula...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.25/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, up $5.1 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 21-27, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 338,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 26 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 380,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 5 perce...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1175/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, up $6.3 fr...
Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows
CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said President Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause in levies for auto...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 February 2025 During the last week of February, the market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Milling wheat remained bullish pulling up feed wheat and milling rye which is in short supply as well. And it is no wonder as during 2024 rye crop acre...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $4.5...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Central Bank has left interest rates unchanged, with the main operational interest rate standing at 27.75 percent per annum. Egypt and the EU have agreed on a €90 million European Investment Bank finance program...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s all-grain exports are down 1 percent YTD through February at 29 MMT. February shipments fell 40 percent from the same month in 2024 and totaled 3.2 MMT. The EU Commission lowered its forecast of the bloc’s total grain production for 2024/25 to 255...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
WPI 2025/26 Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Outlook
Following the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and the release of the agency’s initial 2025/26 outlooks, WPI has updated our major crop forecasts for the coming marketing year as well. Our latest model runs indicate a more bearish outlook for corn as ending stocks are forecast to incr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices
USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and tighter overall farm income. Farmers will plant more corn, netting record production, causing ending stocks to grow and the price to...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.81/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $2.3...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 14-20, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 269,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 378,700 MT were up 63 percent from the previous week, but down 9 per...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.5/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Ag Futures Fall; Bears Trying to Run Away with Market
The CBOT was broadly lower on Wednesday with fund selling and a lack of bullish news or inputs pushing values into the red. Wheat was the biggest loser for the day and its weakness helped pull corn off an early rally where May futures tested the $5.00 level to no avail. The soy complex was on t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices are frozen. The export market remains the key driver, and the world is watching several factors including remaining stocks of wheat as well as the status of the w...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Further but Soy Complex Show Strength
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with risk-off trade and seasonal factors driving most of the day’s action. The markets are also seeing a good bit of repositioning heading into first notice day on Friday, which helped drive heavy-volume trade and some of spread trade dynamics. The soy...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.1...
2025 Planted Acres: Corn to Expand
Planting season is still several weeks away, which means the acreage balance is still in flux, however, multiple factors could shift how acres are traded around the U.S. That is according to CoBank’s outlook, predicting an increase of 4.17 million acres of corn. For soybeans, tariffs on i...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC) has increased its ownership in Olam Agri from 35 percent to 80 percent with an option to buy the remaining shares within three years. Olam Agri is Singapore-based with an...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle against high temperatures and sporadic rainfall. By the end of last week, many areas needing precipitation received some relief, particularly in the northern core region and western agricultural zones. Currently, soils in the co...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.9/short ton, down $3 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps most notably expanded their long position in corn by 10 percent to a new five-year seasonal record large position. Since Tuesday’s data r...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week with some Bearish Headwinds
The last session of this holiday shortened trading week was much like the week itself, mixed with mostly declines. Though hogs, HRS and soymeal all had gains in the longer dated positions. South American weather and the volatile situation in macro markets with consumers pulling back each had th...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 7-13, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 532,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 232,700 MT were down 60 percent from the previous week and 43 percent f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9125/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.395/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.8/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, up $0.9...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the biggest losses in the grain complex as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Traders also bet that the current cold snap won&rs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices froze along with export demand for the latter. Keep in mind that beginning 15 February, the new export quota for grains covers only wheat. Wheat allowed for expor...
Market Commentary: Exports Bouy Corn; Wheat Rallies on Cold Snap Concerns
Grain futures were weaker overnight following the long weekend and after President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy. The markets bounced back Tuesday, however, with a positive export sales report buoying corn while fears of winterkill in the U.S. winter wheat crop pushed wheat futures...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6.0475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.385/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $293.8/short ton, down $2.1 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, shifted to become net sellers of both commodities. The trend shifts didn’t stop there, however, as previously bearish funds were net buy...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The 2025 dates for Ramadan are estimated to be 28 February until 30 March. The actual dates will depend on the location of each country. Egypt’s government hopes to increase its local wheat purchases in 2025 by 11 percent to...
Market Commentary: Weather, Economy, Tariffs All Jiggle the Market
There were surprisingly only modest trading volumes in this last trading session before a three-day holiday. There was no rush to escape positions. The livestock complex and soyoil closed lower, but the rest of the top trading ag commodities made gains on the day, but only cattle, soybeans, and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $3.2 from yeste...
No GMO Corn Ban by Mexico
Last Wednesday, the Mexican government formally repealed an import ban on genetically modified corn after the U.S. successfully argued the measure violated its commitments under a North American free trade deal. Here’s how we got here. In 2018, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, i.e., “t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertainty around President Trump’s pursuit of tariffs against trading partners. However, less than an hour following the open soybeans and ca...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7775/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $1.4 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 31-February 6, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 569,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 577,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 85...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fundamental update. The corn market reversed course from its post-WASDE selloff and instead chose to focus on the bullish factors on the horizon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2775/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 February 2025 The market remained bullish. Farmers keep sitting on grains expecting a better price amid rumours that ending stocks are melting away and grain will be in short supply soon. Both in Russia and Kazakhstan, export prices, the key driver on the mark...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cuts to South American production prospects. Traders received about half of what they wished for, with USDA indeed cutting the South American o...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296.6/short ton, down $3.9 fr...
WASDE Corn - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of corn for the 2024/25 season. The projected season-average farm price is raised 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. ...
Moral Reciprocity
President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are mostly pure protectionism. Canada, Brazil and Mexico are the main suppliers, not the state-driven over-production of China. But now the President says he is going to impose reciprocal tariffs, matching dollar for dollar (percent...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – Mea Region Turkey’s wheat imports and exports are lower in 2024/25 due to restrictions by the Turkish government that will reduce the high level of stocks on hand. Morocco’s 2024 wheat and barley production is down by 40 p...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or range-bound trade. The exceptions were the corn and livestock markets, where traders remain more bullish. In the case of corn, it’s the Ar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.915/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.5/short ton, down $0.9 from ye...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Significant rainfall fell across almost the entire Argentine agricultural region last week, with the highest accumulations in the core corn and soybean areas. These rains followed weeks of intense drought and high temperatures. Soil moisture maps show substantial improvements in the nucleu...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Global wheat prices were higher last week as concerns about the 2024/25 Russian supply and export program increase as well as concerns about the 2025/26 Black Sea production outlook. Russian exports are down sharply over the past few weeks and are projected to total just 2.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length in the soy complex as well. Funds added another 5 percent to their long corn positions through last Tuesday and are just 7,000 contracts sh...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experienced the following: It was the fourth week in a row higher for SRW, and the third week up for HRW and HRS. It was the second week in a row...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.4/short ton, down $5 f...
WPI 2025 Acreage Outlook
With the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook forum happening at the end of this month and planting season a little more than four weeks away for parts of the U.S., the industry is turning its attention to the acreage outlook for 2025. This year offers significant differences from recent conditions t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand. Wheat ruled the market today with higher volume pushing all three major contracts higher. Soybeans and corn traded modestly higher with mea...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 24-30, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 438,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 4 percent from the previous week, but up 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 264,800 MT were down 55 percent from the previous week and 24 per...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $306.4/short ton, down $1.9 from...
Market Commentary: Volatile As Long As Tariffs Are Uncertain
The big news in the ag commodity markets Wednesday was the pullback in soybean futures as traders remain wary of the political tensions and tariff developments between Washington and Beijing. If this doesn’t sound like a major news story, you’d be correct, but this was about as even...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9325/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $5...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 January 2025 The market remained bullish, however, the dynamics and stability varied from region to region. Prices in the Volga Valley appreciated but Central Russia and the Asian part of Russia are still stable. The key factor was the announcement of lower...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Tariff Relief; Cattle Selloff Extends to Second Day
Markets were encouraged by the fact both Canada and Mexico were able to secure 30-day delays on Trump’s tariff plans, which offers hope the duties are indeed a negotiating tactic rather than a steadfast policy platform. The big issue remains the 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, and Chi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.945/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, up $10.3 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s monthly inflation rate increased by 5.03 percent in January while the 12-month inflation rate stood at 42.12 percent. Turkey’s inflation rate dropped significantly from the 75 percent rate in May 2024. Lebanon...
Market Commentary: Tariff Whiplash
News of President Trump’s tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada drove the agricultural and macroeconomic markets on Monday with seemingly every tick, dip, and rally stemming from political factors. Over the weekend, President Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods as well...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5825/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $2.6 f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The reduction in export taxes has not yet had the expected impact of boosting farmer sales of grain and soybeans. The main issue is that price transmission has not been fully realized, primarily because exporters oppose the requirement to bring foreign currency into the countr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds still engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Funds expanded their long position in corn by 7 percent and are now just about 17,000 contract shy of their seasonal record long position. Funds were n...
Market Commentary: Tariffs More Than Weather
President Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow eclipsed concerns about South American weather and sent much of the agricultural futures complex into the red on Friday. Both countries will retaliate with Canada saying it will be...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.595/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.42/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $3.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day with Wheat Hot, The Rest Not
Today’s trading session pretty much followed the overnight with wheat notching a third day of gains but traders taking a breather on corn, beans, and cattle. While wheat is girded by doubtful moisture conditions in the northern Black Sea region, the corn and soybean markets do not want to...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 17-23, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 456,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 96 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 588,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 97 percent fro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.665/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.44/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $5.1 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Lead CBOT Higher; Cattle Correct Ahead of Inventory Report
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday due to the bullish influences of wheat and corn. The two grains saw support from Black Sea and South American weather impacts, respectively, with production outlooks for both regions falling. That put futures in a bullish mood with funds expanding net lon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.97/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $8.2 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 January 2025 The domestic market remained bullish while the export market in dollar terms remained relatively stable. Export duties decreased slightly allowing prices to grow. Most likely the biggest bullish factor is the remaining grain stocks which are mel...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain but Lack Conviction; More All-Time Highs for Cattle
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday in what was mostly a technically driven corrective bounce. With South America’s weather still not perfect and various harvest/planting delays ongoing, there is a need to maintain some risk premium in prices. At the same time, however, overall supplies (es...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $0.8 from yes...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s new state grain buyer – Mostakbal Misr – is rumored to have made significant wheat purchases for delivery in the next three months. All the purchases are said to be for Russian wheat. No details of the pu...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Tariff Threats Ease; Cattle Surge to New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with grain and oilseed futures seeing pressure develop after the U.S. and Colombia averted a possible tit-for-tat trade war over the weekend. Sunday saw both the U.S. and Colombian presidents threaten each other’s country with 25 percent tariffs...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.8/short ton, down $4.1...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The state of agriculture in Argentina and the loss of export competitiveness become clearer when examined through recent data. The official inflation rate for December 2024 was reported at 2.7 percent, resulting in an accumulated inflation rate of 117.8 percent for 2024. During this period, the...
Market Commentary: Market Stalls Waiting for South American Weather Definition
There were modest volumes on this last trading day of the week, except in soymeal and cattle where the goal was to get out of the former and into the latter. There were new contract highs, again, in cattle. Overall weakness was blamed on Argentina’s announced lower tax rates on commodity...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 10-16, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 164,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 201,300 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 41 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.865/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5575/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather
TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still plenty of strength. Corn remains up about a nickel for the week, beans up more than 30-cents and while wheat dipped today, the large gains l...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8975/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.655/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, down $0.5 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat on Profit Taking, Tariff Talk; Cattle Hit $200 for First Time
Except for soymeal and the livestock markets, the CBOT was lower on Wednesday with traders booking profits and taking a more cautious approach after the recent runup in prices. Too, rhetoric out of the White House is keeping traders guessing on the possible application of and retaliation to var...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 January 2025 Last week, the market woke up from the prolonged Christmas holidays and surprisingly remained bullish against a stable export trend and high export duties. Growing duties may nip the bullish trend in the bud. Russian wheat can now freely go into...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Surge as Dollar Slides
The first full day of the Trump Presidency saw CBOT grain futures surge as the U.S. dollar pulled back sharply. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all saw strong buying influences after the long U.S. holiday weekend with traders seeing bullish news from several points. The first point was President Trum...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Perhaps the biggest feature of the report was funds’ exchange of a small net short in soybeans for a modest long of 58,000 contracts, after they bought...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $2.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Market Gets a Bounce Ahead of Long Weekend
Commodity markets retraced some of the losses from Thursday, ending higher on Friday but not necessarily for the week. Corn is on a roll, nearing heights not seen in more than a year, but even cattle lost some of their bullish glow this week. 01172025MC_weeklychange.png 22.13 KBA key vect...
Market Commentary: Give Us Our Daily Brake
Futures took a weather break today. The rain slated for Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend doesn’t appear monumental, but something is better than nothing, and something is all it takes to put brakes on a borderline market. The day’s trading closely tracked the overnight, with red showi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 3-9, 2025Wheat: Net sales of 513,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 196,500 MT were down 53 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.19/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.4/short ton, down $7.6 f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger spread trade and players still watching the dryness in Argentina and slowly growing potential for a late start to the Brazilian safrinha plant...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 January 2025Traditionally during a prolonged holiday season, which in Russia does not coincide with the holiday season in most other countries because of the Russian Orthodox calendar, Russian grain trading volume is low. However, pricing forgot about the holiday s...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest While Eyeing South American Weather
The CBOT turned mostly lower on Tuesday as the excitement from the bullish WASDE faded. Traders now see the corn and soybean yield and production cuts as fully priced into futures, which left markets to return to trading the South American weather outlooks and export trends. Both of these facto...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $2 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONSyria has been added to Ukraine’s list of countries eligible for assistance under the “Grain from Ukraine” aid program – an initial shipment of 500 MT of wheat flour has been made to Syria by Ukraine.Ukraine expanded its “Grain from Ukra...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ activity matched up with expectations and general market direction. Note that the data, which captures funds’ positions through Tuesday, 7 Jan...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trying to Find New Ranges
The CBOT saw more bullish influences on Monday from Friday’s WASDE report in which USDA slashed the 2024 U.S. corn and soybean yields. After considering the numbers and implications over the weekend, traders decided there was enough demand for both products and, if USDA’s latest numbers are cor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $307.8/short ton, up $9.5 from yester...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatWith week-on-week progress of 3.5 percentage points, Argentina’s wheat harvest has reached 98 percent of the area and is nearing completion. Total production is expected to reach approximately 18.5 MMT.Markets have shown few updates, and local wheat prices remain nearly unchanged. As a res...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the Balkans and Ukraine saw unseasonably warm weather with moderate rainfall while Russia saw cold weather with light precipitation. The current forecasts call for cooler temperatures in France and Spain, but warmth in the UK and from Poland eastward (with the exce...
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be fed a steady diet of news, and the lack of such inputs from the WASDE gave bears an advantage for the day. Soybeans and corn were the market...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.005/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts this year's total planted area to be higher than the previous year, reaching almost 84 million hectares (Mha), of which 55.8 million are spring crops. The Russian Statistics Agency reported that wheat pr...
Markets Fall on WASDE and Trade War
Today’s March USDA WASDE report did nothing to temper the bearish mood in both commodity and equity markets. Volume was light ahead of the WASDE release and stayed that way. While corn and soybeans traded mostly in the green ahead of the report, wheat had no reason to be bullish. There wa...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged from last month – and the season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. USDA’s global corn outlook is for higher foreign corn production: Increases in India, Russia, and Uk...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, dow...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s change in government wheat importation is said to have led to market confusion and a drop in available wheat supply. The change from GASC to Mostakbal Misr (MM) has caused major changes in buying methods, with intern...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down $2.1 from...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month, which ranges from 100–140 mm from west to east. March began with a similar trend, bringing heavy rains across the country, particula...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.25/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, up $5.1 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 21-27, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 338,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 26 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 380,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 5 perce...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1175/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, up $6.3 fr...
Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows
CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said President Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause in levies for auto...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 February 2025 During the last week of February, the market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Milling wheat remained bullish pulling up feed wheat and milling rye which is in short supply as well. And it is no wonder as during 2024 rye crop acre...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $4.5...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Central Bank has left interest rates unchanged, with the main operational interest rate standing at 27.75 percent per annum. Egypt and the EU have agreed on a €90 million European Investment Bank finance program...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s all-grain exports are down 1 percent YTD through February at 29 MMT. February shipments fell 40 percent from the same month in 2024 and totaled 3.2 MMT. The EU Commission lowered its forecast of the bloc’s total grain production for 2024/25 to 255...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
WPI 2025/26 Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Outlook
Following the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and the release of the agency’s initial 2025/26 outlooks, WPI has updated our major crop forecasts for the coming marketing year as well. Our latest model runs indicate a more bearish outlook for corn as ending stocks are forecast to incr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices
USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and tighter overall farm income. Farmers will plant more corn, netting record production, causing ending stocks to grow and the price to...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.81/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $2.3...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 14-20, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 269,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 378,700 MT were up 63 percent from the previous week, but down 9 per...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.5/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Ag Futures Fall; Bears Trying to Run Away with Market
The CBOT was broadly lower on Wednesday with fund selling and a lack of bullish news or inputs pushing values into the red. Wheat was the biggest loser for the day and its weakness helped pull corn off an early rally where May futures tested the $5.00 level to no avail. The soy complex was on t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices are frozen. The export market remains the key driver, and the world is watching several factors including remaining stocks of wheat as well as the status of the w...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Further but Soy Complex Show Strength
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with risk-off trade and seasonal factors driving most of the day’s action. The markets are also seeing a good bit of repositioning heading into first notice day on Friday, which helped drive heavy-volume trade and some of spread trade dynamics. The soy...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3125/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.1...
2025 Planted Acres: Corn to Expand
Planting season is still several weeks away, which means the acreage balance is still in flux, however, multiple factors could shift how acres are traded around the U.S. That is according to CoBank’s outlook, predicting an increase of 4.17 million acres of corn. For soybeans, tariffs on i...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC) has increased its ownership in Olam Agri from 35 percent to 80 percent with an option to buy the remaining shares within three years. Olam Agri is Singapore-based with an...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Harvest Pressure CBOT
Crop markets were lower to start the week with harvest progress in South America and increasingly favorable weather there weighing on values. Too, the Export Inspections data was lackluster for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which is not what traders wanted to see amid concerns about increased tari...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Crop Update Argentina’s corn crop continues to struggle against high temperatures and sporadic rainfall. By the end of last week, many areas needing precipitation received some relief, particularly in the northern core region and western agricultural zones. Currently, soils in the co...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.9/short ton, down $3 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
In the week following the February WASDE, managed money traders’ sentiments towards the ag markets changed relatively little. Funds perhaps most notably expanded their long position in corn by 10 percent to a new five-year seasonal record large position. Since Tuesday’s data r...
Market Commentary: Mixed Week with some Bearish Headwinds
The last session of this holiday shortened trading week was much like the week itself, mixed with mostly declines. Though hogs, HRS and soymeal all had gains in the longer dated positions. South American weather and the volatile situation in macro markets with consumers pulling back each had th...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 7-13, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 532,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 232,700 MT were down 60 percent from the previous week and 43 percent f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9125/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.395/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.8/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed on Mostly Low Volume
There was lower volume in much of the market today, except in soybeans where there was a healthy double-digit gain. Market inputs are steady for the moment, but that could change. The Energy Information Agency reported ethanol output last week at 1.084 barrels per day, beating expectation...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.975/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.92/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, up $0.9...
Market Commentary: Risk-Off Trade Pushes CBOT Lower; Hogs Selloff Sharply
The CBOT was mostly lower Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and a general "risk-off" mentality drove the day’s weaker trade. Wheat futures saw the biggest losses in the grain complex as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Traders also bet that the current cold snap won&rs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices froze along with export demand for the latter. Keep in mind that beginning 15 February, the new export quota for grains covers only wheat. Wheat allowed for expor...
Market Commentary: Exports Bouy Corn; Wheat Rallies on Cold Snap Concerns
Grain futures were weaker overnight following the long weekend and after President Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy. The markets bounced back Tuesday, however, with a positive export sales report buoying corn while fears of winterkill in the U.S. winter wheat crop pushed wheat futures...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6.0475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.385/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $293.8/short ton, down $2.1 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money traders’ sentiments shifted last week, according to the latest CFTC report. Funds who had previously been bullish soybeans and corn, shifted to become net sellers of both commodities. The trend shifts didn’t stop there, however, as previously bearish funds were net buy...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region The 2025 dates for Ramadan are estimated to be 28 February until 30 March. The actual dates will depend on the location of each country. Egypt’s government hopes to increase its local wheat purchases in 2025 by 11 percent to...
Market Commentary: Weather, Economy, Tariffs All Jiggle the Market
There were surprisingly only modest trading volumes in this last trading session before a three-day holiday. There was no rush to escape positions. The livestock complex and soyoil closed lower, but the rest of the top trading ag commodities made gains on the day, but only cattle, soybeans, and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $3.2 from yeste...
No GMO Corn Ban by Mexico
Last Wednesday, the Mexican government formally repealed an import ban on genetically modified corn after the U.S. successfully argued the measure violated its commitments under a North American free trade deal. Here’s how we got here. In 2018, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, i.e., “t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Thursday After Weather Wednesday
Wheat opened higher but the rest of the board was seeing red at the open. The market mood is cautious given improved weather in South America and uncertainty around President Trump’s pursuit of tariffs against trading partners. However, less than an hour following the open soybeans and ca...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7775/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $1.4 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 31-February 6, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 569,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 577,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 85...
Market Commentary: Corn Reverses WASDE Selloff; Soy Complex Falls on Supply Outlook; New Highs for Hogs
With the February WASDE in the rearview mirror and traders having contemplated the numbers for a while, the CBOT markets showed mixed reactions to the fundamental update. The corn market reversed course from its post-WASDE selloff and instead chose to focus on the bullish factors on the horizon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2775/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 February 2025 The market remained bullish. Farmers keep sitting on grains expecting a better price amid rumours that ending stocks are melting away and grain will be in short supply soon. Both in Russia and Kazakhstan, export prices, the key driver on the mark...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Mild WASDE but Bullish Undertones Lurk for Corn, Wheat
The ag markets were mostly higher heading into the February WASDE on hopes of bullish adjustments to U.S. exports and smaller ending stocks, as well as cuts to South American production prospects. Traders received about half of what they wished for, with USDA indeed cutting the South American o...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.84/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $296.6/short ton, down $3.9 fr...
WASDE Corn - Feb 2025
USDA made no change to U.S. ending stocks of corn for the 2024/25 season. The projected season-average farm price is raised 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. ...
Moral Reciprocity
President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are mostly pure protectionism. Canada, Brazil and Mexico are the main suppliers, not the state-driven over-production of China. But now the President says he is going to impose reciprocal tariffs, matching dollar for dollar (percent...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – Mea Region Turkey’s wheat imports and exports are lower in 2024/25 due to restrictions by the Turkish government that will reduce the high level of stocks on hand. Morocco’s 2024 wheat and barley production is down by 40 p...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Trade Sees Stronger Corn and Livestock; Wheat and Soy Fall
Traders spent most of Monday preparing for the February WASDE report to be released Tuesday at Noon ET, which meant that the CBOT saw mostly weaker or range-bound trade. The exceptions were the corn and livestock markets, where traders remain more bullish. In the case of corn, it’s the Ar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.915/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.5/short ton, down $0.9 from ye...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Significant rainfall fell across almost the entire Argentine agricultural region last week, with the highest accumulations in the core corn and soybean areas. These rains followed weeks of intense drought and high temperatures. Soil moisture maps show substantial improvements in the nucleu...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Global wheat prices were higher last week as concerns about the 2024/25 Russian supply and export program increase as well as concerns about the 2025/26 Black Sea production outlook. Russian exports are down sharply over the past few weeks and are projected to total just 2.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report featured more bullish sentiments from managed money traders with funds slightly expanding a massive long position in corn and adding length in the soy complex as well. Funds added another 5 percent to their long corn positions through last Tuesday and are just 7,000 contracts sh...
Market Commentary: Down Day but Most of the Week Was Temporarily Up
Today’s trading was mostly lower based on South American weather and the ever-present tariff threat. Overall, the first week in February 2025 experienced the following: It was the fourth week in a row higher for SRW, and the third week up for HRW and HRS. It was the second week in a row...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.495/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.4/short ton, down $5 f...
WPI 2025 Acreage Outlook
With the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook forum happening at the end of this month and planting season a little more than four weeks away for parts of the U.S., the industry is turning its attention to the acreage outlook for 2025. This year offers significant differences from recent conditions t...
Market Commentary: Tariff Drama on Hold, Back to South American Weather
The upheaval in the market early this week caused by the head fake on tariffs has subsided and the focus has now returned to fundamental supply and demand. Wheat ruled the market today with higher volume pushing all three major contracts higher. Soybeans and corn traded modestly higher with mea...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 24-30, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 438,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 4 percent from the previous week, but up 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 264,800 MT were down 55 percent from the previous week and 24 per...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $306.4/short ton, down $1.9 from...
Market Commentary: Volatile As Long As Tariffs Are Uncertain
The big news in the ag commodity markets Wednesday was the pullback in soybean futures as traders remain wary of the political tensions and tariff developments between Washington and Beijing. If this doesn’t sound like a major news story, you’d be correct, but this was about as even...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9325/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $5...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 January 2025 The market remained bullish, however, the dynamics and stability varied from region to region. Prices in the Volga Valley appreciated but Central Russia and the Asian part of Russia are still stable. The key factor was the announcement of lower...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Tariff Relief; Cattle Selloff Extends to Second Day
Markets were encouraged by the fact both Canada and Mexico were able to secure 30-day delays on Trump’s tariff plans, which offers hope the duties are indeed a negotiating tactic rather than a steadfast policy platform. The big issue remains the 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, and Chi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.945/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.77/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, up $10.3 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s monthly inflation rate increased by 5.03 percent in January while the 12-month inflation rate stood at 42.12 percent. Turkey’s inflation rate dropped significantly from the 75 percent rate in May 2024. Lebanon...
Market Commentary: Tariff Whiplash
News of President Trump’s tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada drove the agricultural and macroeconomic markets on Monday with seemingly every tick, dip, and rally stemming from political factors. Over the weekend, President Trump announced 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods as well...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8875/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5825/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $2.6 f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The reduction in export taxes has not yet had the expected impact of boosting farmer sales of grain and soybeans. The main issue is that price transmission has not been fully realized, primarily because exporters oppose the requirement to bring foreign currency into the countr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds still engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Funds expanded their long position in corn by 7 percent and are now just about 17,000 contract shy of their seasonal record long position. Funds were n...
Market Commentary: Tariffs More Than Weather
President Trump’s announcement that he will impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow eclipsed concerns about South American weather and sent much of the agricultural futures complex into the red on Friday. Both countries will retaliate with Canada saying it will be...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.595/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.42/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $3.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day with Wheat Hot, The Rest Not
Today’s trading session pretty much followed the overnight with wheat notching a third day of gains but traders taking a breather on corn, beans, and cattle. While wheat is girded by doubtful moisture conditions in the northern Black Sea region, the corn and soybean markets do not want to...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 17-23, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 456,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 96 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 588,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 97 percent fro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.665/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.44/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $5.1 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Lead CBOT Higher; Cattle Correct Ahead of Inventory Report
The CBOT was mostly higher on Wednesday due to the bullish influences of wheat and corn. The two grains saw support from Black Sea and South American weather impacts, respectively, with production outlooks for both regions falling. That put futures in a bullish mood with funds expanding net lon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.97/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.605/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $8.2 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 January 2025 The domestic market remained bullish while the export market in dollar terms remained relatively stable. Export duties decreased slightly allowing prices to grow. Most likely the biggest bullish factor is the remaining grain stocks which are mel...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain but Lack Conviction; More All-Time Highs for Cattle
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday in what was mostly a technically driven corrective bounce. With South America’s weather still not perfect and various harvest/planting delays ongoing, there is a need to maintain some risk premium in prices. At the same time, however, overall supplies (es...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, up $0.8 from yes...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s new state grain buyer – Mostakbal Misr – is rumored to have made significant wheat purchases for delivery in the next three months. All the purchases are said to be for Russian wheat. No details of the pu...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Tariff Threats Ease; Cattle Surge to New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with grain and oilseed futures seeing pressure develop after the U.S. and Colombia averted a possible tit-for-tat trade war over the weekend. Sunday saw both the U.S. and Colombian presidents threaten each other’s country with 25 percent tariffs...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.82/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $300.8/short ton, down $4.1...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The state of agriculture in Argentina and the loss of export competitiveness become clearer when examined through recent data. The official inflation rate for December 2024 was reported at 2.7 percent, resulting in an accumulated inflation rate of 117.8 percent for 2024. During this period, the...
Market Commentary: Market Stalls Waiting for South American Weather Definition
There were modest volumes on this last trading day of the week, except in soymeal and cattle where the goal was to get out of the former and into the latter. There were new contract highs, again, in cattle. Overall weakness was blamed on Argentina’s announced lower tax rates on commodity...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 10-16, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 164,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 201,300 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 41 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.865/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5575/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Tick Tock on South American Weather
TikTok is still operating but the tick tock on South American will eventually run out of time. Notable developments today included a lower open, but still plenty of strength. Corn remains up about a nickel for the week, beans up more than 30-cents and while wheat dipped today, the large gains l...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8975/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.655/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, down $0.5 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat on Profit Taking, Tariff Talk; Cattle Hit $200 for First Time
Except for soymeal and the livestock markets, the CBOT was lower on Wednesday with traders booking profits and taking a more cautious approach after the recent runup in prices. Too, rhetoric out of the White House is keeping traders guessing on the possible application of and retaliation to var...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 January 2025 Last week, the market woke up from the prolonged Christmas holidays and surprisingly remained bullish against a stable export trend and high export duties. Growing duties may nip the bullish trend in the bud. Russian wheat can now freely go into...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Surge as Dollar Slides
The first full day of the Trump Presidency saw CBOT grain futures surge as the U.S. dollar pulled back sharply. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all saw strong buying influences after the long U.S. holiday weekend with traders seeing bullish news from several points. The first point was President Trum...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The CFTC report was in line with expectations again as it showed funds engaged in the expected buying in corn and across the soy complex. Perhaps the biggest feature of the report was funds’ exchange of a small net short in soybeans for a modest long of 58,000 contracts, after they bought...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.3875/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $2.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Market Gets a Bounce Ahead of Long Weekend
Commodity markets retraced some of the losses from Thursday, ending higher on Friday but not necessarily for the week. Corn is on a roll, nearing heights not seen in more than a year, but even cattle lost some of their bullish glow this week. 01172025MC_weeklychange.png 22.13 KBA key vect...
Market Commentary: Give Us Our Daily Brake
Futures took a weather break today. The rain slated for Argentina and southern Brazil this weekend doesn’t appear monumental, but something is better than nothing, and something is all it takes to put brakes on a borderline market. The day’s trading closely tracked the overnight, with red showi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 3-9, 2025Wheat: Net sales of 513,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 196,500 MT were down 53 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.375/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.19/bushel, down $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $294.4/short ton, down $7.6 f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.7875/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Try to Establish Trading Ranges; Livestock Still Biased Upward
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week and mostly continued its consolidation after the recent WASDE-derived surprises. Corn futures pushed higher with stronger spread trade and players still watching the dryness in Argentina and slowly growing potential for a late start to the Brazilian safrinha plant...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 January 2025Traditionally during a prolonged holiday season, which in Russia does not coincide with the holiday season in most other countries because of the Russian Orthodox calendar, Russian grain trading volume is low. However, pricing forgot about the holiday s...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest While Eyeing South American Weather
The CBOT turned mostly lower on Tuesday as the excitement from the bullish WASDE faded. Traders now see the corn and soybean yield and production cuts as fully priced into futures, which left markets to return to trading the South American weather outlooks and export trends. Both of these facto...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.745/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $2 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONSyria has been added to Ukraine’s list of countries eligible for assistance under the “Grain from Ukraine” aid program – an initial shipment of 500 MT of wheat flour has been made to Syria by Ukraine.Ukraine expanded its “Grain from Ukra...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
There were really no surprises in this week’s CFTC report, which was delayed one day due to the national day of mourning for President Carter, as funds’ activity matched up with expectations and general market direction. Note that the data, which captures funds’ positions through Tuesday, 7 Jan...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trying to Find New Ranges
The CBOT saw more bullish influences on Monday from Friday’s WASDE report in which USDA slashed the 2024 U.S. corn and soybean yields. After considering the numbers and implications over the weekend, traders decided there was enough demand for both products and, if USDA’s latest numbers are cor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Soymeal closed at $307.8/short ton, up $9.5 from yester...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WheatWith week-on-week progress of 3.5 percentage points, Argentina’s wheat harvest has reached 98 percent of the area and is nearing completion. Total production is expected to reach approximately 18.5 MMT.Markets have shown few updates, and local wheat prices remain nearly unchanged. As a res...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the Balkans and Ukraine saw unseasonably warm weather with moderate rainfall while Russia saw cold weather with light precipitation. The current forecasts call for cooler temperatures in France and Spain, but warmth in the UK and from Poland eastward (with the exce...