Recent Feed Grains Analysis
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Crop Ratings Fall and Wheat Planting Stalls
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. corn condition ratings took a surprise turn for the worse in Monday’s report, with 54 percent rated good/excellent (down 3 percent). Dry weather in the U.S. Wheat Belt is stalling planting and causing concerns for the 2027 crop, in turn boosting futures...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.03/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, up $7.7 from ye...
Understanding the Difference Between Export Inspections and Export Sales
Key Takeaways: Export sales measure new commitments for future delivery, while export inspections provide a timelier gauge of grain that is physically moving through the export system. Sales and inspections often diverge from week to week because they measure different stages of the export pro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Sri Lanka poultry producer associations say that the delay in approving maize imports is pushing prices for poultry meat and eggs higher. Producers have had to use rice for feed rather than maize due to a lack of supply, and many...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9725/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8075/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.1/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Global Grain Demand Grows; Brazil Election, Currency Swing Boosts Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: The Brazilian real surged to start the week after a surprise election result in which right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round of the election. The swing in the U.S. dollar/Brazilian real (USD/BRL) exchange rate caused soybeans to jump sharply higher in earl...
Harvest Pressure: Why Grain Prices Often Weaken at Harvest
Key Takeaways: Harvest pressure is fundamentally a timing issue: supply arrives much faster than demand can adjust, creating temporary weakness that can occur across crops and regions. The intensity of that pressure depends less on crop size alone than on how quickly grain moves into the syste...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 5 October)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Argentina’s wheat conditions improved following the latest round of rainfall. Around 34 percent of the crop is now at heading or later stages, with the first harvests starting in the north and early yields coming in above historical averages. The area rated Good to Excelle...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9775/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Weighs on Grains, Diesel Could See Much-Needed Relief
What You Need to Know Today: The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel reserves over four months, with a substantial diesel release front-loaded into the first 20 days. The announcement initially pushed crude oil lower on Friday, although it later recovered a portion o...
R-CALF Proposes Changes to Cattle Contracts
In a recent social media post, R-CALF unveiled its latest cattle market plan: “contracts that bind producers before establishing a base price, then tie that price to future negotiated cash transactions, should be prohibited.” That proposal aligns with recent legislation by Represent...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 63,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 954,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soymeal reached a new r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0225/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.84/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $353.3/short ton, down $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Drier Weather Could Accelerate Soybean Harvest
What You Need to Know Today: A drier early-October forecast should help harvest accelerate across areas of the western Corn Belt that have been running behind, adding pressure to soybeans and soymeal today as concerns over near-term physical tightness begin to ease. Markets are still digesting...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0075/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7575/bushel, down $0.17 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.93/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Quarter & Month End Reality Checks
Markets are getting a quarter-end reality check as September comes to a close. Growth, inflation and interest rates remain central to the macro outlook, while tight diesel supplies keep pressure on the cost of moving goods. States are stepping in with relief, but policy changes alone cannot reb...
Do Russia’s Northern Grain Exports Matter?
Key Takeaways: Russia recently said it would convert existing export terminals in the Baltic and Arctic Seas to handle grain as the Black and Azov Seas remain closed to maritime trade. Futures markets reacted negatively to this news, but does the conversion matter to short-term and long-...
Higher Corn Stocks Contrast with Tighter Soybean Supplies
Key Takeaways: 1 September corn stocks totaled 2.095 billion bushels, 171 million above expectations and 544 million above last year, providing additional cushion for the 2026/27 balance sheet and potentially adding near-term pressure to prices. June-August corn disappearance increased just 10...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 September 2026 During the third week of September, the Russian grain market remained bearish. For the first time since 2018, average 3rd-grade milling wheat prices dropped below RUB 10,000/t. This poses a serious threat to the Russian agricultural sector, as l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9275/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.9775/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359/short ton, down $0.4 from y...
Market Commentary: Wet Midwest Weather, Grain Stocks Positioning Support CBOT
What You Need to Know Today: CBOT markets pared Monday’s sharp losses as traders booked short profits and adjusted positions ahead of the Grain Stocks report that USDA will release Wednesday afternoon. The 7-day QPF forecast from NOAA now shows heavy rain across the central and western C...
How Comparative Advantage Shapes Global Trade
Key Takeaways: Comparative advantage encourages countries to specialize in goods they can produce at a lower opportunity cost and rely on trade for others. Differences in climate, land, infrastructure, and technology help determine where agricultural commodities can be produced most efficientl...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran is reported to have completed its rail link from the border with Afghanistan to the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman — the link is expected to be fully operational in early 2027. This will be Afghanistan&rsq...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.23/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8825/bushel, down $0.3075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.4/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Everything but Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Last week’s Trump-Xi meetings included China agreeing to roll back $60 billion in tariffs on a huge swath of U.S. ag products, just notably not soybeans. The exclusion of soybeans from the tariff-reduction list means China’s state-run importers COFCO an...
U.S.-China Deal Delivers Tariff Relief, but Little for Soybeans
Key Takeaways: The U.S.-China agreement lowers tariffs on several U.S. agricultural products, but the lack of additional soybean commitments or greater certainty surrounding China’s existing 25 MMT purchase pledge made the deal a slight disappointment. Lower tariffs on U.S. corn are unli...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat crop conditions remain broadly favorable despite a week marked by frost and localized hailstorms. Currently, 94.6 percent of the crop is rated Normal to Excellent. The most severe storms were reported in central-northern Córdoba and central-eastern Entre Ríos...
Market Commentary: U.S.-China Talks Leave Markets Waiting for More
What You Need to Know Today: Headlines emerging from negotiations between President Trump and President Xi were relatively limited, with a more substantive announcement expected Monday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that additional details related to agricultural trade cou...
Cow-Calf Market Outlook
The heat of summer is now transitioning into more moderate temperatures, and the next two months have the busiest marketing periods of the year for replacement cattle. Weather always influences the replacement cattle market, and the primary grain belt in the Southern Plains, where many cattle a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.19/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371/short ton, down $1.4 fr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 3,200 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 1.017 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soybeans and soyme...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.07/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $372.4/short ton, up $1.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Markets Await Xi-Trump Meeting Outcome, Export Sales Disappoint
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived at the White House today as part of a highly anticipated three-day visit to the United States, marking his first visit to Washington in eleven years. Trade is expected to feature prominently in discussions with President Trump,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.085/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.18/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $370.6/short ton, down $0.1...
Market Commentary: The Devil Is in the Details
Markets have no shortage of headlines today, but the reaction depends on what sits underneath them. Strong economic growth comes with renewed inflation pressure. Higher crude inventories do little to solve tight diesel supplies. Rain is delaying one crop while helping another, and trade expecta...
DDGS Price Outlook Turns Bullish
Key Takeaways: DDGS prices have been pushing higher this summer as corn, soybean meal, and other feedstuff values have surged amid strong export demand and supply concerns. WPI’s models anticipate additional gains for DDGS values heading into early 2027, with FOB plant prices reach...
China’s Push for Corn Self-Sufficiency
Key Takeaways: China has made significant progress toward corn self-sufficiency, with production projected to reach a record 307.0 MMT in 2026/27 while imports have fallen sharply from their 29.5 MMT peak in 2020/21. Strengthening food security has become an important priority for China, with...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 September 2026 The Russian grain market remained bearish during the second week of September, although the market is attempting to establish a bottom as trading is now dominated by new-crop supplies. Logistics remain a major factor. Farms and traders located b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.1725/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.255/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $370.7/short ton, up $2...
Market Commentary: Politics Drives Turnaround Tuesday
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures crashed on social media rumors that ICE raided one or possibly three fed cattle packing plants in Kansas Monday night or Tuesday morning. Operations at one plant have been disrupted and production curtailed. Outcomes for shipping via the Strait of Ho...
Soymeal Holds Its Value in an Oil-Driven Crush Market
Key Takeaways: The expansion of biofuel-driven soybean crushing was expected to increase soymeal supplies and pressure prices as soyoil became a larger driver of crush economics, but soymeal has instead retained considerable value. Strong domestic and global feed demand has helped absorb addit...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reported to be facing shipping delays for grain from Ukraine through Danube ports — delays could be as much as 26 days, according to reports. Ukraine has three ports on the Danube, but all vessels must transit the S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2675/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.28/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.4/short ton, up $9.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Bullish Technical Day ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting
What You Need to Know Today: Grain markets were sharply higher overnight and through the day session as the concerning wet weather pattern persists over the Midwest. Grain traders – and soybean market players in particular – will be closely parsing both what is said and unsaid from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s 2026/27 corn planting has reached 11.1 percent of the projected 8.4 Mha, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, advancing 5.6 percentage points over the past week. Progress is concentrated in central-eastern Entre Ríos, where 58.3 percent of the in...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets in the latest CFTC report, with funds selling a net 3,000 contracts through last Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing their combined net-long position to 1.021 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, pos...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.1425/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.035/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $358.6/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Pulls Back, Bullish Cattle on Feed
What You Need to Know Today: The September Cattle on Feed report was strongly bullish, with both the 1 September on-feed inventory and August placements coming in well below average expectations and below the bottom of their respective pre-report estimate ranges. China continues to buy U...
Cattle on Feed Report: Lowest August Placements and Marketings on Record
USDA’s September cattle on feed report was released Friday, with the total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounting to 11.2 million head, 101 percent of last year. Placements dropped in August to their lowest total for the month since records began in 1996...
U.S. Goat Meat Market: Import Growth Outpaces a Slowly Rebuilding Domestic Herd
Key Takeaways: The U.S. herd is stabilizing, but growth remains modest. Total goat inventory rose 1 percent in 2026, while meat-goat numbers increased 2 percent, which is not enough to materially reduce import dependence. Domestic slaughter is rising from a low base. Commercial slaughter incre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.305/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.27/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1975/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371.3/short ton, up $5...
Market Commentary: The Dust Settles
Given yesterday’s headlines, today’s market action may not be what many expected. The dollar is little changed, crude oil is pulling back and stocks are trading higher. Crude may be the biggest piece of today’s reversal. Saudi Arabia is offering additional crude to Asian buyer...
Managed Money Makes a Record Bullish Bet on Agriculture
Key Takeaways: Managed money is holding more than one million net-long contracts across agricultural markets, with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all reaching record net-long positions in September. Fundamental concerns surrounding yields, supplies, and global availability have helped justify the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.3075/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.205/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $0.2 f...
Market Commentary: Markets Digest Fed Hike as Trade Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75–4.00 percent, its first rate increase since 2023, as policymakers respond to persistent inflation pressures. The Fed also signaled that additi...
USDA Reports - The Real Divide in American Agriculture Isn't Who Has the Data — It's Who Can Afford to Read It
Key Takeaways: USDA data access is equal; the ability to use it is not. Larger operations can afford experts who turn public reports into business decisions. Analytical capacity is the true advantage. Forecasts matter only when converted into profit, purchasing, and risk-management decisions...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 September 2026 During the first week of September, the Russian grain market remained volatile but predominantly bearish. Among the few commodities that continued to show a bullish trend was rye, which is in short supply this year and has few offers available. I...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.285/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1875/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.4/short ton, up $9.2 from...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Prices Reach Two-Year High
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices extended their rally Tuesday as disruptions to global supplies intensified. Saudi Arabia halted crude loadings at its Yanbu Red Sea port following the shutdown of the East-West Pipeline, while protests by oil-sector security workers forced the suspension...
WASDE Livestock and Meat Price Forecasts
The USDA has lowered its 2026 red meat production forecasts while leaving poultry almost unchanged. Beef is now projected at 24.877 billion pounds, 90 million pounds below August on slower Q3 fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights, along with an anticipated counterseasonal cutback in...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s grain imports have fallen off in recent weeks due to several reasons, according to local experts — large imports of maize earlier in the year built up good stocks, while the availability of local maize has sinc...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.22/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0425/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.2/short ton, up $3.4 fro...
Market Commentary: Harvest Off to a Fast Start, Inflation Concerns Intensify
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices moved higher early Monday before giving back some of their gains after drone attacks forced the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a critical route for bypassing constrained shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption puts rou...
Cow-Calf Profit Expectations Weaken Further
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 1 percent below our August outlook and will be 1.2 percent below 2025 levels. Feed costs have lessen...
Time Running Out: Fly In for the Farm Bill, North American Trade
The Senate will reconvene today after a late August recess and will adjourn in early October, in about 3 to 4 weeks. The farm bill will move front and center on the agenda. A major fly-in is scheduled for today and Tuesday, with the goal of hitting all Senate offices. Groups participating in th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Corn planting for Argentina’s 2026/27 commercial crop is now underway, with 1.5 percent of the projected 8.4 Mha already seeded. Progress is concentrated mainly in central-northern Santa Fe, where around 13 percent of the regional area has been planted. At the same time, fa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Soybeans, soymeal, and corn all reached a record net-long through Tuesday’s reporting deadline, although overall fund positioning across ag was mixed. Managed money traders bought 24,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reporting deadline, pushing the tota...
WASDE Corn - September 2026
USDA’s September WASDE outlook for 2026/27 U.S. corn is for reduced ending stocks by 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion. The season-average U.S. farm price is increased $0.30 per bushel to $4.80. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced, mostly reflecting a reduction for India, that was pa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2525/bushel, down $0.16 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.965/bushel, down $0.3575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.8/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: September WASDE Leaves Grain Outlook Largely Intact
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean yields in the September WASDE report were close to pre-report expectations. The corn yield came in at 178.5 bushels per acre, compared with an average analyst estimate of 178.1, while the soybean yield was 52.8 bushels per acre, slightly abov...
The Risk Isn’t Over for Corn and Soy Yields
Commodity markets – being composed primarily of human beings – reflect the impatience and forever forward-looking nature of humans. In the present case, this means that while the September WASDE offered some much-needed and much-desired updates, markets are now focused on that etern...
USDA and Sugar: An Arranged Marriage
USDA and sugar have been married since 1934. With such an old marriage, there are all manner of promises, obligations and compromises. There are disagreements and arguments, and occasional calls for divorce, but they lack real conviction. We outsiders find it all so difficult to understand. The...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.3225/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, up $5.5 from...
Market Commentary: Soy Exports, Technical Support Send CBOT Higher Before WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: Risk-on money flow was present in the markets Thursday with headlines in Iran and the Black Sea driving the move. Russia attacked more of Ukraine’s processing and export facilities, including a Bunge facility near the Black Sea. One of the facilities hit was...
Implications of $100+ per Barrel Crude Oil on Agriculture
Key Takeaways: The significance of $100-per-barrel crude depends largely on how long prices remain elevated, as sustained high energy costs are more likely to influence longer-term agricultural decisions. Higher crude oil prices raise farm production costs most directly through diesel, while a...
Dairy Feed Cost Volatility and Margins
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean meal markets are tightening together for the first time in more than a year, driven by lower U.S. yield expectations and continued Chinese soybean demand. A strong El Niño is replacing last year’s La Niña, shifting crop risk across the Americ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2875/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.095/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $351.4/short ton, up $...
Market Commentary: Pressure is Stacking Up
Energy: Fewer Routes, More Pressure Brent crude is back above $100, while WTI has closed higher for seven consecutive sessions as multiple supply routes come under pressure and the market runs out of workarounds. U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian crude-oil carriers Tuesday after Iran attempted...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 August – 4 September 2026 The Russian grain market continued its bearish trend during the first week of September, with ample stocks and weak demand keeping pressure on prices. At the same time, Russian exports are undergoing a structural shift as traders increas...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.47/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.8/short ton, down $5.3 fro...
Market Commentary: Volatility is the Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to favor more beneficial conditions for finishing the corn and soybean crops, which is removing some weather risk premium from futures. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s September WASDE, which will offer major insight...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan’s government reports that it has purchased 750,000 MT of wheat that will be delivered in November 2026, along with another 250,000 MT for later delivery. The forecasted shortfall in wheat supply for 2026/27 could be...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0975/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.1/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: Recent Rallies Lose Steam
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. and Chinese officials are expected to discuss agriculture and non-tariff trade barriers ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington later this month, potentially opening the door to additional U.S. agricultural purchases or improved marke...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities continued through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline with drought, yield, and Black Sea export concerns driving another week of massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 225,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday&rs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.5425/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.5/short ton, up $5.9...
Market Commentary: “Chances” for Peace and Disinflation; Cattle Market Meddling
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat futures pulled back sharply after Russian President Putin said there was a “chance” for peace and an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. There is plenty of skepticism about the opportunity for peace in Ukraine, but that didn’t stop wheat fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Market Commentary: The Calendar Is Not in Control
Energy: Risk Over Rules Fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight. Tehran accused U.S. forces of striking a residential area after U.S. Central Command said its second round of attacks in three days targeted Iranian radar systems and mi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 August 2026 During the fourth week of August, the Russian grain market continued to slide, although the pace of the decline slowed. The immediate market reaction and collapse in export activity have placed significant pressure on farmers. Price declines vary b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
Market Commentary: Contract Highs to Start September; Demand Destruction is the Point
What You Need to Know Today: The EPA offered an extension for 2025 RSF compliance reporting from 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026 and announced decisions on requests to exempt 34 small refineries from the requirements. The U.S. is stepping up attacks against Iran after two tankers carrying c...
EPA Announces 2025 SREs under the RFS: 1.76 Billion RINs
On Monday, 31 August, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced decisions for 34 small refinery exemption (SRE) petitions under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program for 2025. In consultation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), EPA reviewed and considered information su...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt, at the end of July, is once again the largest importer of maize from Brazil at about 2.6 million MT from January to July — followed by Iran at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 665,000 MT, Saudi Arabia at 435,000 MT, and Israel at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift on Profit Taking but Trend-Higher Regime Remains in Place
What You Need to Know Today: End-of-month profit taking sent the CBOT broadly lower, though corn and soybeans managed to post small gains to continue their rallies. Turkey’s foreign ministry claimed to have a plan to ensure safe passage for both Ukrainian and Russian grain vessels via th...
Tightening Supplies and Strong Demand Fuel a Grain Market Rally
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean prices rallied sharply last week as declining U.S. production expectations collided with strong demand, raising the prospect of tighter supplies and leaving the market with a smaller margin for further yield losses. The USDA’s lower August yield estimates...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The 2026/27 Argentine corn planting outlook remains broadly stable, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projecting 8.4 Mha, unchanged from 2025/26. Regional shifts are expected to largely offset each other, with lower acreage in the NOA and NEA due to renewed concerns over Dalbu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: After Bullish Week, WPI Bias is Higher but Risk Management More Important
What You Need to Know Today: Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all formed new contract or at least rally highs to close what has become one of the most uniformly bullish weeks in CBOT history. Escalations in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and attacks on civilian merchant vessels show n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: When Bottlenecks Move Markets
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Ethanol Margins Set to Decline; Biodiesel Margins Set to Explode
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Export, Yield, and Attack Headlines Drive Grains to New Highs
What You Need to Know Today: The day belonged to the bulls as fund buying and technical momentum boosted corn, soybeans, and wheat to new rally or contract highs. Wheat futures exploded Wednesday around the world after Russia indicated it will increase its attacks on Ukrainian export infrastru...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Falls Amid Shifting Economics
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 4–5 percent below our July outlook and will be 3 percent below 2025 levels. Costs are quickly...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the third week of August as the Black Sea blockade severely disrupted export logistics. The resulting loss of export capacity is pressuring domestic prices and increasing storage concerns as the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3775/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Trade Dominates as Yields, Supplies Face Threats
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean crop ratings declined late Monday and set the stage for stronger CBOT trade Tuesday. Funds are in risk-on mode across the ag space, resulting in firm trade and solid gains for grains and oilseeds. Iran and Oman released a joint statement saying the...
The Netherlands: An Unlikely Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Despite its limited farmland, the Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter, focusing on high-value products such as dairy, flowers, meat, and vegetables. The Port of Rotterdam makes the Netherlands a major European agricultural trade hub, supporting significant processing an...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco is reported to be resuming soft wheat imports on 16 September 2026, ending the three-month ban on imports that had begun on 1 June 2026. The government will announce the details of the 2026 wheat support program shortly. N...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.995/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, up $2.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Yield Assessments Drive CBOT Reactions; Cattle Fall on Beef Import News
What You Need to Know Today: Pro Farmer’s crop tour pegged the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 173.2 BPA and anticipated a 15.344 Bbu crop – both figures well below expectations. Pro Farmer forecast 2026 U.S. soybean yields at 53.3 BPA, above most private estimates and USDA’s August W...
Gene Editing Offers a New Path for Crop Development
Key Takeaways: Gene editing makes targeted changes to a plant’s existing DNA, while genetic modification can introduce genetic material from another organism to create traits not naturally present in the crop. Gene editing is unlikely to replace genetic modification entirely, as the two...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued to face delays due to high grain moisture and poor field conditions in some areas. Despite elevated moisture levels, an increasing number of farmers began harvesting as crop losses and lodging emerged. Harvest progress has now surpassed 80 percent b...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Concerns about U.S. corn and soybean yields and continued disruptions in the Black Sea drove a week of bullish activity at the CBOT. Managed money traders bought 127,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 29 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the buyin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.395/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.8/short ton, up $2 from ye...
Market Commentary: Bullish Momentum Continues for Corn and Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: There has already been a strong run of flash soybean sales announcements in recent weeks, but more than 1.4 MMT reported this morning is an exceptionally large single-day total with major implications for the market. If the sales to China and unknown destinations w...
How Much for That Bushel of Credibility?
In agriculture and food processing, we think a lot about infrastructure: transportation and storage, processing and packaging, distribution and delivery. It is a physical system of roads, railroads, and rivers; concrete and steel storage; processing plants, warehouses, and machinery; and, event...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.035/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.365/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, down $1.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Point to Lower Yield Potential
What You Need to Know Today: Day three of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found corn yield potential below last year in both Illinois and western Iowa. Illinois corn yields averaged 184.2 bushels/acre, down from 199.6 bushels/acre last year and the 199.2 bushels/acre three-year average, while wester...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.975/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3725/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.6/short ton, up $6.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Pressure Moves, Markets Reprice the Risk
Macro: Treasury Squeezes Yields, the Dollar Gives Way Today’s markets are offering a lesson in pressure: it rarely disappears — it simply moves. The U.S. Treasury stepped into the bond market after long-term yields surged to levels not seen in nearly two decades. By announcing plans...
Emerging Stability in EU Maize S&D
Key Takeaways: Weather conditions in Europe have continued to deteriorate following both the EU MARS’ latest balance sheet update and the August WASDE, leaving “official” estimates lagging behind the reality observed on the ground. WPI’s models anticipate a 4 perc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to weaken sharply during the second week of August as the Black Sea logistics situation deteriorated. Russia and Ukraine continued exchanging drone and ballistic attacks on seaports, infrastructure and commercial...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.8/short ton, up $0.1 fr...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Hints at Rally Doubts
What You Need to Know Today: Declining crop conditions ratings and shaky results from the Pro Farmer crop tour sent grains sharply higher on Tuesday. The Pro Farmer tour in Ohio pegged the state yield at 180.18 BPA, about 5.5 BPA below the tour’s 2025 estimate. Similarly, the Pro Farmer...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is the largest importer of Brazilian maize in the first six months of 2026. Egypt imported about 28.4 percent of maize exports, or about 1.7 million MT. Iran was the third-largest importer at 14.5 percent, or 900,000 MT, fol...
USMCA 11th Hour and New Tariffs for Canada Not Over
Based on a Depression-era statute, President Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of exports to the U.S., or about 5.2 percent of the $383 billion worth of goods the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Of that total, about $39.3 billion was agricu...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Crop Tours Start and Weather Forecasts Shift
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. weather is getting more attention this week as conditions vary greatly across the western, central, and eastern corn belts, with the different regions battling dryness and too much rain simultaneously. The ProFarmer Crop Tour began today in Indiana and Nebrask...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather and pre-WASDE positioning last week overrode the Black Sea export and allowed bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT for the second straight week. Managed money traders sold 63,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 12.5 percent in the proce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.16/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $2.4 from yeste...
Argentina’s Record Corn Crop Drives Export Growth
Key Takeaways: Argentina is on pace for a record corn crop and record exports in the current marketing year, with abundant supplies likely to keep the country highly competitive in global export markets. Argentina’s record exportable surplus is allowing it to offer highly competitive pri...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest progress has fallen further behind the normal pace, with the latest estimate showing more than 15 percentage points of delay versus previous years. Excessive grain moisture and poor road conditions continue to limit field access and slow harvest act...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: Russia Resists Black Sea Truce, Cattle Processing Consolidating Further
What You Need to Know Today: Russia rejected calls for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, including a proposal to halt attacks on civilian shipping that could help restore grain flows from Ukrainian ports. Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close its Joslin, Illinois, beef processing facili...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8225/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Market Commentary: Potential Black Sea Deal Could Reshape Global Grain Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: Wholesale inflation was flat in July, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unchanged versus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. Core PPI rose 0.2 percent, also below expectations. The softer inflation data has reduced the odds of a September interest rate incre...
Livestock Roundup: Livestock WASDE
Yesterday, the USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), forecasting tighter beef and pork supplies and growing broiler supplies, resulting in a tighter red meat supply. Broiler production, however, continues to grow and is forecast to be up more than 3 percent. Beef...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8325/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, up $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: From Headlines to Hard Numbers
Macro: Relief Meets Reality July’s CPI report matched expectations. Headline inflation eased to 3.4 percent year over year, while core inflation declined to 2.5 percent. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.1 percent and core increased 0.2 percent. Equities and the U.S. dollar traded h...
Black Sea and EU Export Discussion
One of the curious developments from the August WASDE was USDA’s handling of the European, Russian, and Ukrainian corn and wheat balance sheets. The EU has battled significant drought and heat this year, while Russia and Ukraine are increasingly locked in a battle for control over the Bla...
Implications of the Lower-than-Expected August WASDE Yields and Added Acreage
Key Takeaways: Corn yield came in below expectations at 180.7 bushels per acre, validating WPI’s view that last year’s exceptional yield may have anchored analyst estimates higher. Despite slightly higher production for corn, stronger export projections tightened the balance sheet,...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WASDE Corn - August 2026
USDA’s August WASDE outlook for 2026/27 U.S. corn is basically for unchanged production as an increased acreage estimate offset a lower yield forecast. Reduced beginning stocks and increased corn exports reduced the estimated ending stocks of U.S. corn to 1.7 billion bushels. The seasonal...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the first week of August following the closure of the Azov and Don ports and restrictions on Black Sea trade linked to the war in Ukraine. Regular air attacks on infrastructure and vessels have fur...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6875/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Larger Global Supply Fears Send CBOT Lower Ahead of WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast 2027 U.S. WTI crude oil at $65.39/brl, up about $5 from the prior forecast. President Trump late Monday claimed the U.S. has swept the entire Strait of Hormuz (SOH) for sea mines. Iran’s security council said...
Understanding Protein Content in Soymeal
Key Takeaways: Soymeal with 44 percent protein generally contains more soybean hulls and fiber, while 48 percent soymeal is more extensively dehulled, resulting in higher protein concentration and lower fiber. CBOT soymeal futures were lowered from a 48 percent to 47.5 percent protein specific...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s annual urban consumer inflation rate is at 14.9 percent for July 2026, up from 14.3 percent in June. Nationwide annual inflation stands at 13.0 percent. Pakistan’s wheat and wheat flour prices continue to move...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather overrode the Black Sea export impacts in last week’s trade and left more bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT. Managed money traders sold 65,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 11 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.405/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.795/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $1.8...
Market Commentary: WASDE, Black Sea, and Iran Offer Offsetting Effects on Grain Futures
What You Need to Know Today: Tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend with Iran demanding the U.S. make multiple concessions that are likely non-starters before traffic can flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a mutual defense agreeme...
Senate Farm Bill: What’s Next?
Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has urged farmers to apply pressure on the failed farm bill during the August recess. His intent is to hold another vote on the legislation as soon as possible upon the Senate’s return from a five-week break on 14 September. From a parliamentary perspecti...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Weather continues to dominate the Argentine grain market. Rainfall persisted across much of the country’s agricultural region during the week, accompanied by unusually warm temperatures. As a result, soil moisture profiles remain fully recharged across most production areas. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7625/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.4/short ton, down $3.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Attention Turns to August WASDE Yield Estimates
What You Need to Know Today: Traders are increasingly focused on next Wednesday’s August WASDE report, with corn and soybean yield estimates expected to drive the next major move in grain markets. Recent crop condition declines and late-July heat have increased uncertainty around USDA&rs...
WPI August Grain Balance Sheet Projections
Key Takeaways: WPI’s 2025/26 corn export models continue to reflect strong international demand and put the total marketing year volume slightly above USDA’s estimates. Strong old crop corn exports are offset by weaker feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks slightly ele...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Awaiting New Catalysts
What You Need to Know Today: Iran has developed an initial draft plan that would prohibit U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to global energy trade. Although no restrictions have been enacted, the proposal adds anot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7475/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.8 f...
Market Commentary: Caution Beneath the Headlines
There are plenty of major headlines moving across the markets today, but the reaction beneath them remains cautious. Crude oil is holding steady despite reports of progress involving the Strait of Hormuz, corn and soybeans remain tied to changing weather forecasts, and wheat continues to weigh...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 July 2026 Russian grain prices declined sharply during the week under review as new-crop supplies entered the market and demand weakened. Corn and barley prices declined, while both milling and feed wheat and rye experienced larger losses. The harvest campaign...
Market Commentary: Improved Weather Outlook, Possible Iran Deal Send Grains, Oil Lower
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could “today or tomorrow” reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the Secretary’s claims, an attack on a vessel off the Omani coast suggests plenty of risk remains in forming a lo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.385/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.4/short ton, down $3.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region TMO, the Turkish Grain Board, has announced that milling wheat exports were allowed as of 29 July due to “sufficient domestic supplies.” All milling wheat exports will require approval of an export application; approva...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Halts, U.S. Weather Risks Send CBOT Higher
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump suspended the planned attacks on Iran and announced that the pieces for a framework for peace were in place in a weekend social media post. Iran, however, later said no efforts were underway to conduct negotiations with the U.S., though Oman indicat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0.4 from...
E15 Expansion Could Boost Corn Demand, But Adoption Faces Hurdles
Key Takeaways: E15 expansion would support corn and ethanol demand by increasing domestic biofuel consumption and reducing reliance on petroleum-based fuels. Year-round E15 has gained bipartisan momentum, but the policy remains in legislative limbo as lawmakers continue to negotiate provisions...
Senate Farm Bill Draft Released
Late Friday afternoon, Chairman John Boozman (R-Arkansas) released an updated draft of the Senate farm bill. The farm bill markup is scheduled for Thursday, 6 August at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Boozman has been negotiating with Ranking Minority Member Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota) to craft...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina's corn harvest has reached 69.8 percent of the national harvestable area. Harvest progress remains constrained primarily in southeastern Buenos Aires, where persistently high humidity has slowed grain dry-down and prevented moisture levels from reaching harvest standards. As a re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3925/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Record Soyoil Demand Contrasts With Grain Market Weakness
What You Need to Know Today: Record biofuel demand continues to support soyoil values, as EIA data show that May soyoil usage as a biofuel feedstock reached a record 1.434 billion pounds. The latest data reinforces the strength of renewable fuel demand and helps explain ongoing investment in a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.8/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Cattle Outperform Hogs on Quiet Day for Corn and Soy
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran resumed missile strikes after a brief pause in fighting, raising concerns that the five-month conflict could expand across the Middle East. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles, Kuwait reported a fatal strike, and drone attacks damaged two natural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9275/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, dow...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Crop Ratings Fall and Wheat Planting Stalls
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. corn condition ratings took a surprise turn for the worse in Monday’s report, with 54 percent rated good/excellent (down 3 percent). Dry weather in the U.S. Wheat Belt is stalling planting and causing concerns for the 2027 crop, in turn boosting futures...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.03/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, up $7.7 from ye...
Understanding the Difference Between Export Inspections and Export Sales
Key Takeaways: Export sales measure new commitments for future delivery, while export inspections provide a timelier gauge of grain that is physically moving through the export system. Sales and inspections often diverge from week to week because they measure different stages of the export pro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Sri Lanka poultry producer associations say that the delay in approving maize imports is pushing prices for poultry meat and eggs higher. Producers have had to use rice for feed rather than maize due to a lack of supply, and many...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9725/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8075/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.1/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Global Grain Demand Grows; Brazil Election, Currency Swing Boosts Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: The Brazilian real surged to start the week after a surprise election result in which right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round of the election. The swing in the U.S. dollar/Brazilian real (USD/BRL) exchange rate caused soybeans to jump sharply higher in earl...
Harvest Pressure: Why Grain Prices Often Weaken at Harvest
Key Takeaways: Harvest pressure is fundamentally a timing issue: supply arrives much faster than demand can adjust, creating temporary weakness that can occur across crops and regions. The intensity of that pressure depends less on crop size alone than on how quickly grain moves into the syste...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 5 October)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Argentina’s wheat conditions improved following the latest round of rainfall. Around 34 percent of the crop is now at heading or later stages, with the first harvests starting in the north and early yields coming in above historical averages. The area rated Good to Excelle...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9775/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Weighs on Grains, Diesel Could See Much-Needed Relief
What You Need to Know Today: The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel reserves over four months, with a substantial diesel release front-loaded into the first 20 days. The announcement initially pushed crude oil lower on Friday, although it later recovered a portion o...
R-CALF Proposes Changes to Cattle Contracts
In a recent social media post, R-CALF unveiled its latest cattle market plan: “contracts that bind producers before establishing a base price, then tie that price to future negotiated cash transactions, should be prohibited.” That proposal aligns with recent legislation by Represent...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 63,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 954,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soymeal reached a new r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0225/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.84/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $353.3/short ton, down $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Drier Weather Could Accelerate Soybean Harvest
What You Need to Know Today: A drier early-October forecast should help harvest accelerate across areas of the western Corn Belt that have been running behind, adding pressure to soybeans and soymeal today as concerns over near-term physical tightness begin to ease. Markets are still digesting...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0075/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7575/bushel, down $0.17 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.93/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Quarter & Month End Reality Checks
Markets are getting a quarter-end reality check as September comes to a close. Growth, inflation and interest rates remain central to the macro outlook, while tight diesel supplies keep pressure on the cost of moving goods. States are stepping in with relief, but policy changes alone cannot reb...
Do Russia’s Northern Grain Exports Matter?
Key Takeaways: Russia recently said it would convert existing export terminals in the Baltic and Arctic Seas to handle grain as the Black and Azov Seas remain closed to maritime trade. Futures markets reacted negatively to this news, but does the conversion matter to short-term and long-...
Higher Corn Stocks Contrast with Tighter Soybean Supplies
Key Takeaways: 1 September corn stocks totaled 2.095 billion bushels, 171 million above expectations and 544 million above last year, providing additional cushion for the 2026/27 balance sheet and potentially adding near-term pressure to prices. June-August corn disappearance increased just 10...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 September 2026 During the third week of September, the Russian grain market remained bearish. For the first time since 2018, average 3rd-grade milling wheat prices dropped below RUB 10,000/t. This poses a serious threat to the Russian agricultural sector, as l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9275/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.9775/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359/short ton, down $0.4 from y...
Market Commentary: Wet Midwest Weather, Grain Stocks Positioning Support CBOT
What You Need to Know Today: CBOT markets pared Monday’s sharp losses as traders booked short profits and adjusted positions ahead of the Grain Stocks report that USDA will release Wednesday afternoon. The 7-day QPF forecast from NOAA now shows heavy rain across the central and western C...
How Comparative Advantage Shapes Global Trade
Key Takeaways: Comparative advantage encourages countries to specialize in goods they can produce at a lower opportunity cost and rely on trade for others. Differences in climate, land, infrastructure, and technology help determine where agricultural commodities can be produced most efficientl...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran is reported to have completed its rail link from the border with Afghanistan to the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman — the link is expected to be fully operational in early 2027. This will be Afghanistan&rsq...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.23/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8825/bushel, down $0.3075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.4/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Everything but Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Last week’s Trump-Xi meetings included China agreeing to roll back $60 billion in tariffs on a huge swath of U.S. ag products, just notably not soybeans. The exclusion of soybeans from the tariff-reduction list means China’s state-run importers COFCO an...
U.S.-China Deal Delivers Tariff Relief, but Little for Soybeans
Key Takeaways: The U.S.-China agreement lowers tariffs on several U.S. agricultural products, but the lack of additional soybean commitments or greater certainty surrounding China’s existing 25 MMT purchase pledge made the deal a slight disappointment. Lower tariffs on U.S. corn are unli...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat crop conditions remain broadly favorable despite a week marked by frost and localized hailstorms. Currently, 94.6 percent of the crop is rated Normal to Excellent. The most severe storms were reported in central-northern Córdoba and central-eastern Entre Ríos...
Market Commentary: U.S.-China Talks Leave Markets Waiting for More
What You Need to Know Today: Headlines emerging from negotiations between President Trump and President Xi were relatively limited, with a more substantive announcement expected Monday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that additional details related to agricultural trade cou...
Cow-Calf Market Outlook
The heat of summer is now transitioning into more moderate temperatures, and the next two months have the busiest marketing periods of the year for replacement cattle. Weather always influences the replacement cattle market, and the primary grain belt in the Southern Plains, where many cattle a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.19/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371/short ton, down $1.4 fr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 3,200 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 1.017 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soybeans and soyme...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.07/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $372.4/short ton, up $1.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Markets Await Xi-Trump Meeting Outcome, Export Sales Disappoint
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived at the White House today as part of a highly anticipated three-day visit to the United States, marking his first visit to Washington in eleven years. Trade is expected to feature prominently in discussions with President Trump,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.085/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.18/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $370.6/short ton, down $0.1...
Market Commentary: The Devil Is in the Details
Markets have no shortage of headlines today, but the reaction depends on what sits underneath them. Strong economic growth comes with renewed inflation pressure. Higher crude inventories do little to solve tight diesel supplies. Rain is delaying one crop while helping another, and trade expecta...
DDGS Price Outlook Turns Bullish
Key Takeaways: DDGS prices have been pushing higher this summer as corn, soybean meal, and other feedstuff values have surged amid strong export demand and supply concerns. WPI’s models anticipate additional gains for DDGS values heading into early 2027, with FOB plant prices reach...
China’s Push for Corn Self-Sufficiency
Key Takeaways: China has made significant progress toward corn self-sufficiency, with production projected to reach a record 307.0 MMT in 2026/27 while imports have fallen sharply from their 29.5 MMT peak in 2020/21. Strengthening food security has become an important priority for China, with...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 September 2026 The Russian grain market remained bearish during the second week of September, although the market is attempting to establish a bottom as trading is now dominated by new-crop supplies. Logistics remain a major factor. Farms and traders located b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.1725/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.255/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $370.7/short ton, up $2...
Market Commentary: Politics Drives Turnaround Tuesday
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures crashed on social media rumors that ICE raided one or possibly three fed cattle packing plants in Kansas Monday night or Tuesday morning. Operations at one plant have been disrupted and production curtailed. Outcomes for shipping via the Strait of Ho...
Soymeal Holds Its Value in an Oil-Driven Crush Market
Key Takeaways: The expansion of biofuel-driven soybean crushing was expected to increase soymeal supplies and pressure prices as soyoil became a larger driver of crush economics, but soymeal has instead retained considerable value. Strong domestic and global feed demand has helped absorb addit...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reported to be facing shipping delays for grain from Ukraine through Danube ports — delays could be as much as 26 days, according to reports. Ukraine has three ports on the Danube, but all vessels must transit the S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2675/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.28/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.4/short ton, up $9.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Bullish Technical Day ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting
What You Need to Know Today: Grain markets were sharply higher overnight and through the day session as the concerning wet weather pattern persists over the Midwest. Grain traders – and soybean market players in particular – will be closely parsing both what is said and unsaid from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s 2026/27 corn planting has reached 11.1 percent of the projected 8.4 Mha, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, advancing 5.6 percentage points over the past week. Progress is concentrated in central-eastern Entre Ríos, where 58.3 percent of the in...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets in the latest CFTC report, with funds selling a net 3,000 contracts through last Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing their combined net-long position to 1.021 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, pos...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.1425/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.035/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $358.6/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Pulls Back, Bullish Cattle on Feed
What You Need to Know Today: The September Cattle on Feed report was strongly bullish, with both the 1 September on-feed inventory and August placements coming in well below average expectations and below the bottom of their respective pre-report estimate ranges. China continues to buy U...
Cattle on Feed Report: Lowest August Placements and Marketings on Record
USDA’s September cattle on feed report was released Friday, with the total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounting to 11.2 million head, 101 percent of last year. Placements dropped in August to their lowest total for the month since records began in 1996...
U.S. Goat Meat Market: Import Growth Outpaces a Slowly Rebuilding Domestic Herd
Key Takeaways: The U.S. herd is stabilizing, but growth remains modest. Total goat inventory rose 1 percent in 2026, while meat-goat numbers increased 2 percent, which is not enough to materially reduce import dependence. Domestic slaughter is rising from a low base. Commercial slaughter incre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.305/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.27/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1975/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371.3/short ton, up $5...
Market Commentary: The Dust Settles
Given yesterday’s headlines, today’s market action may not be what many expected. The dollar is little changed, crude oil is pulling back and stocks are trading higher. Crude may be the biggest piece of today’s reversal. Saudi Arabia is offering additional crude to Asian buyer...
Managed Money Makes a Record Bullish Bet on Agriculture
Key Takeaways: Managed money is holding more than one million net-long contracts across agricultural markets, with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all reaching record net-long positions in September. Fundamental concerns surrounding yields, supplies, and global availability have helped justify the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.3075/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.205/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $0.2 f...
Market Commentary: Markets Digest Fed Hike as Trade Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75–4.00 percent, its first rate increase since 2023, as policymakers respond to persistent inflation pressures. The Fed also signaled that additi...
USDA Reports - The Real Divide in American Agriculture Isn't Who Has the Data — It's Who Can Afford to Read It
Key Takeaways: USDA data access is equal; the ability to use it is not. Larger operations can afford experts who turn public reports into business decisions. Analytical capacity is the true advantage. Forecasts matter only when converted into profit, purchasing, and risk-management decisions...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 September 2026 During the first week of September, the Russian grain market remained volatile but predominantly bearish. Among the few commodities that continued to show a bullish trend was rye, which is in short supply this year and has few offers available. I...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.285/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1875/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.4/short ton, up $9.2 from...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Prices Reach Two-Year High
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices extended their rally Tuesday as disruptions to global supplies intensified. Saudi Arabia halted crude loadings at its Yanbu Red Sea port following the shutdown of the East-West Pipeline, while protests by oil-sector security workers forced the suspension...
WASDE Livestock and Meat Price Forecasts
The USDA has lowered its 2026 red meat production forecasts while leaving poultry almost unchanged. Beef is now projected at 24.877 billion pounds, 90 million pounds below August on slower Q3 fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights, along with an anticipated counterseasonal cutback in...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s grain imports have fallen off in recent weeks due to several reasons, according to local experts — large imports of maize earlier in the year built up good stocks, while the availability of local maize has sinc...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.22/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0425/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.2/short ton, up $3.4 fro...
Market Commentary: Harvest Off to a Fast Start, Inflation Concerns Intensify
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices moved higher early Monday before giving back some of their gains after drone attacks forced the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a critical route for bypassing constrained shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption puts rou...
Cow-Calf Profit Expectations Weaken Further
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 1 percent below our August outlook and will be 1.2 percent below 2025 levels. Feed costs have lessen...
Time Running Out: Fly In for the Farm Bill, North American Trade
The Senate will reconvene today after a late August recess and will adjourn in early October, in about 3 to 4 weeks. The farm bill will move front and center on the agenda. A major fly-in is scheduled for today and Tuesday, with the goal of hitting all Senate offices. Groups participating in th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Corn planting for Argentina’s 2026/27 commercial crop is now underway, with 1.5 percent of the projected 8.4 Mha already seeded. Progress is concentrated mainly in central-northern Santa Fe, where around 13 percent of the regional area has been planted. At the same time, fa...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Soybeans, soymeal, and corn all reached a record net-long through Tuesday’s reporting deadline, although overall fund positioning across ag was mixed. Managed money traders bought 24,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reporting deadline, pushing the tota...
WASDE Corn - September 2026
USDA’s September WASDE outlook for 2026/27 U.S. corn is for reduced ending stocks by 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion. The season-average U.S. farm price is increased $0.30 per bushel to $4.80. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced, mostly reflecting a reduction for India, that was pa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2525/bushel, down $0.16 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.965/bushel, down $0.3575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.8/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: September WASDE Leaves Grain Outlook Largely Intact
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean yields in the September WASDE report were close to pre-report expectations. The corn yield came in at 178.5 bushels per acre, compared with an average analyst estimate of 178.1, while the soybean yield was 52.8 bushels per acre, slightly abov...
The Risk Isn’t Over for Corn and Soy Yields
Commodity markets – being composed primarily of human beings – reflect the impatience and forever forward-looking nature of humans. In the present case, this means that while the September WASDE offered some much-needed and much-desired updates, markets are now focused on that etern...
USDA and Sugar: An Arranged Marriage
USDA and sugar have been married since 1934. With such an old marriage, there are all manner of promises, obligations and compromises. There are disagreements and arguments, and occasional calls for divorce, but they lack real conviction. We outsiders find it all so difficult to understand. The...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.3225/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, up $5.5 from...
Market Commentary: Soy Exports, Technical Support Send CBOT Higher Before WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: Risk-on money flow was present in the markets Thursday with headlines in Iran and the Black Sea driving the move. Russia attacked more of Ukraine’s processing and export facilities, including a Bunge facility near the Black Sea. One of the facilities hit was...
Implications of $100+ per Barrel Crude Oil on Agriculture
Key Takeaways: The significance of $100-per-barrel crude depends largely on how long prices remain elevated, as sustained high energy costs are more likely to influence longer-term agricultural decisions. Higher crude oil prices raise farm production costs most directly through diesel, while a...
Dairy Feed Cost Volatility and Margins
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean meal markets are tightening together for the first time in more than a year, driven by lower U.S. yield expectations and continued Chinese soybean demand. A strong El Niño is replacing last year’s La Niña, shifting crop risk across the Americ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2875/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.095/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $351.4/short ton, up $...
Market Commentary: Pressure is Stacking Up
Energy: Fewer Routes, More Pressure Brent crude is back above $100, while WTI has closed higher for seven consecutive sessions as multiple supply routes come under pressure and the market runs out of workarounds. U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian crude-oil carriers Tuesday after Iran attempted...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 August – 4 September 2026 The Russian grain market continued its bearish trend during the first week of September, with ample stocks and weak demand keeping pressure on prices. At the same time, Russian exports are undergoing a structural shift as traders increas...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.47/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.8/short ton, down $5.3 fro...
Market Commentary: Volatility is the Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to favor more beneficial conditions for finishing the corn and soybean crops, which is removing some weather risk premium from futures. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s September WASDE, which will offer major insight...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan’s government reports that it has purchased 750,000 MT of wheat that will be delivered in November 2026, along with another 250,000 MT for later delivery. The forecasted shortfall in wheat supply for 2026/27 could be...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0975/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.1/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: Recent Rallies Lose Steam
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. and Chinese officials are expected to discuss agriculture and non-tariff trade barriers ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington later this month, potentially opening the door to additional U.S. agricultural purchases or improved marke...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities continued through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline with drought, yield, and Black Sea export concerns driving another week of massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 225,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday&rs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.5425/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.5/short ton, up $5.9...
Market Commentary: “Chances” for Peace and Disinflation; Cattle Market Meddling
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat futures pulled back sharply after Russian President Putin said there was a “chance” for peace and an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. There is plenty of skepticism about the opportunity for peace in Ukraine, but that didn’t stop wheat fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Market Commentary: The Calendar Is Not in Control
Energy: Risk Over Rules Fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight. Tehran accused U.S. forces of striking a residential area after U.S. Central Command said its second round of attacks in three days targeted Iranian radar systems and mi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 August 2026 During the fourth week of August, the Russian grain market continued to slide, although the pace of the decline slowed. The immediate market reaction and collapse in export activity have placed significant pressure on farmers. Price declines vary b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
Market Commentary: Contract Highs to Start September; Demand Destruction is the Point
What You Need to Know Today: The EPA offered an extension for 2025 RSF compliance reporting from 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026 and announced decisions on requests to exempt 34 small refineries from the requirements. The U.S. is stepping up attacks against Iran after two tankers carrying c...
EPA Announces 2025 SREs under the RFS: 1.76 Billion RINs
On Monday, 31 August, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced decisions for 34 small refinery exemption (SRE) petitions under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program for 2025. In consultation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), EPA reviewed and considered information su...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt, at the end of July, is once again the largest importer of maize from Brazil at about 2.6 million MT from January to July — followed by Iran at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 665,000 MT, Saudi Arabia at 435,000 MT, and Israel at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift on Profit Taking but Trend-Higher Regime Remains in Place
What You Need to Know Today: End-of-month profit taking sent the CBOT broadly lower, though corn and soybeans managed to post small gains to continue their rallies. Turkey’s foreign ministry claimed to have a plan to ensure safe passage for both Ukrainian and Russian grain vessels via th...
Tightening Supplies and Strong Demand Fuel a Grain Market Rally
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean prices rallied sharply last week as declining U.S. production expectations collided with strong demand, raising the prospect of tighter supplies and leaving the market with a smaller margin for further yield losses. The USDA’s lower August yield estimates...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The 2026/27 Argentine corn planting outlook remains broadly stable, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projecting 8.4 Mha, unchanged from 2025/26. Regional shifts are expected to largely offset each other, with lower acreage in the NOA and NEA due to renewed concerns over Dalbu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: After Bullish Week, WPI Bias is Higher but Risk Management More Important
What You Need to Know Today: Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all formed new contract or at least rally highs to close what has become one of the most uniformly bullish weeks in CBOT history. Escalations in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and attacks on civilian merchant vessels show n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: When Bottlenecks Move Markets
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Ethanol Margins Set to Decline; Biodiesel Margins Set to Explode
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Export, Yield, and Attack Headlines Drive Grains to New Highs
What You Need to Know Today: The day belonged to the bulls as fund buying and technical momentum boosted corn, soybeans, and wheat to new rally or contract highs. Wheat futures exploded Wednesday around the world after Russia indicated it will increase its attacks on Ukrainian export infrastru...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Falls Amid Shifting Economics
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 4–5 percent below our July outlook and will be 3 percent below 2025 levels. Costs are quickly...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the third week of August as the Black Sea blockade severely disrupted export logistics. The resulting loss of export capacity is pressuring domestic prices and increasing storage concerns as the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3775/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Trade Dominates as Yields, Supplies Face Threats
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean crop ratings declined late Monday and set the stage for stronger CBOT trade Tuesday. Funds are in risk-on mode across the ag space, resulting in firm trade and solid gains for grains and oilseeds. Iran and Oman released a joint statement saying the...
The Netherlands: An Unlikely Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Despite its limited farmland, the Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter, focusing on high-value products such as dairy, flowers, meat, and vegetables. The Port of Rotterdam makes the Netherlands a major European agricultural trade hub, supporting significant processing an...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco is reported to be resuming soft wheat imports on 16 September 2026, ending the three-month ban on imports that had begun on 1 June 2026. The government will announce the details of the 2026 wheat support program shortly. N...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.995/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, up $2.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Yield Assessments Drive CBOT Reactions; Cattle Fall on Beef Import News
What You Need to Know Today: Pro Farmer’s crop tour pegged the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 173.2 BPA and anticipated a 15.344 Bbu crop – both figures well below expectations. Pro Farmer forecast 2026 U.S. soybean yields at 53.3 BPA, above most private estimates and USDA’s August W...
Gene Editing Offers a New Path for Crop Development
Key Takeaways: Gene editing makes targeted changes to a plant’s existing DNA, while genetic modification can introduce genetic material from another organism to create traits not naturally present in the crop. Gene editing is unlikely to replace genetic modification entirely, as the two...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued to face delays due to high grain moisture and poor field conditions in some areas. Despite elevated moisture levels, an increasing number of farmers began harvesting as crop losses and lodging emerged. Harvest progress has now surpassed 80 percent b...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Concerns about U.S. corn and soybean yields and continued disruptions in the Black Sea drove a week of bullish activity at the CBOT. Managed money traders bought 127,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 29 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the buyin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.395/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.8/short ton, up $2 from ye...
Market Commentary: Bullish Momentum Continues for Corn and Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: There has already been a strong run of flash soybean sales announcements in recent weeks, but more than 1.4 MMT reported this morning is an exceptionally large single-day total with major implications for the market. If the sales to China and unknown destinations w...
How Much for That Bushel of Credibility?
In agriculture and food processing, we think a lot about infrastructure: transportation and storage, processing and packaging, distribution and delivery. It is a physical system of roads, railroads, and rivers; concrete and steel storage; processing plants, warehouses, and machinery; and, event...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.035/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.365/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, down $1.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Point to Lower Yield Potential
What You Need to Know Today: Day three of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found corn yield potential below last year in both Illinois and western Iowa. Illinois corn yields averaged 184.2 bushels/acre, down from 199.6 bushels/acre last year and the 199.2 bushels/acre three-year average, while wester...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.975/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3725/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.6/short ton, up $6.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Pressure Moves, Markets Reprice the Risk
Macro: Treasury Squeezes Yields, the Dollar Gives Way Today’s markets are offering a lesson in pressure: it rarely disappears — it simply moves. The U.S. Treasury stepped into the bond market after long-term yields surged to levels not seen in nearly two decades. By announcing plans...
Emerging Stability in EU Maize S&D
Key Takeaways: Weather conditions in Europe have continued to deteriorate following both the EU MARS’ latest balance sheet update and the August WASDE, leaving “official” estimates lagging behind the reality observed on the ground. WPI’s models anticipate a 4 perc...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to weaken sharply during the second week of August as the Black Sea logistics situation deteriorated. Russia and Ukraine continued exchanging drone and ballistic attacks on seaports, infrastructure and commercial...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.8/short ton, up $0.1 fr...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Hints at Rally Doubts
What You Need to Know Today: Declining crop conditions ratings and shaky results from the Pro Farmer crop tour sent grains sharply higher on Tuesday. The Pro Farmer tour in Ohio pegged the state yield at 180.18 BPA, about 5.5 BPA below the tour’s 2025 estimate. Similarly, the Pro Farmer...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is the largest importer of Brazilian maize in the first six months of 2026. Egypt imported about 28.4 percent of maize exports, or about 1.7 million MT. Iran was the third-largest importer at 14.5 percent, or 900,000 MT, fol...
USMCA 11th Hour and New Tariffs for Canada Not Over
Based on a Depression-era statute, President Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of exports to the U.S., or about 5.2 percent of the $383 billion worth of goods the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Of that total, about $39.3 billion was agricu...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Crop Tours Start and Weather Forecasts Shift
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. weather is getting more attention this week as conditions vary greatly across the western, central, and eastern corn belts, with the different regions battling dryness and too much rain simultaneously. The ProFarmer Crop Tour began today in Indiana and Nebrask...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather and pre-WASDE positioning last week overrode the Black Sea export and allowed bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT for the second straight week. Managed money traders sold 63,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 12.5 percent in the proce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.16/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $2.4 from yeste...
Argentina’s Record Corn Crop Drives Export Growth
Key Takeaways: Argentina is on pace for a record corn crop and record exports in the current marketing year, with abundant supplies likely to keep the country highly competitive in global export markets. Argentina’s record exportable surplus is allowing it to offer highly competitive pri...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest progress has fallen further behind the normal pace, with the latest estimate showing more than 15 percentage points of delay versus previous years. Excessive grain moisture and poor road conditions continue to limit field access and slow harvest act...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: Russia Resists Black Sea Truce, Cattle Processing Consolidating Further
What You Need to Know Today: Russia rejected calls for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, including a proposal to halt attacks on civilian shipping that could help restore grain flows from Ukrainian ports. Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close its Joslin, Illinois, beef processing facili...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8225/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Market Commentary: Potential Black Sea Deal Could Reshape Global Grain Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: Wholesale inflation was flat in July, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unchanged versus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. Core PPI rose 0.2 percent, also below expectations. The softer inflation data has reduced the odds of a September interest rate incre...
Livestock Roundup: Livestock WASDE
Yesterday, the USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), forecasting tighter beef and pork supplies and growing broiler supplies, resulting in a tighter red meat supply. Broiler production, however, continues to grow and is forecast to be up more than 3 percent. Beef...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8325/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, up $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: From Headlines to Hard Numbers
Macro: Relief Meets Reality July’s CPI report matched expectations. Headline inflation eased to 3.4 percent year over year, while core inflation declined to 2.5 percent. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.1 percent and core increased 0.2 percent. Equities and the U.S. dollar traded h...
Black Sea and EU Export Discussion
One of the curious developments from the August WASDE was USDA’s handling of the European, Russian, and Ukrainian corn and wheat balance sheets. The EU has battled significant drought and heat this year, while Russia and Ukraine are increasingly locked in a battle for control over the Bla...
Implications of the Lower-than-Expected August WASDE Yields and Added Acreage
Key Takeaways: Corn yield came in below expectations at 180.7 bushels per acre, validating WPI’s view that last year’s exceptional yield may have anchored analyst estimates higher. Despite slightly higher production for corn, stronger export projections tightened the balance sheet,...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WASDE Corn - August 2026
USDA’s August WASDE outlook for 2026/27 U.S. corn is basically for unchanged production as an increased acreage estimate offset a lower yield forecast. Reduced beginning stocks and increased corn exports reduced the estimated ending stocks of U.S. corn to 1.7 billion bushels. The seasonal...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the first week of August following the closure of the Azov and Don ports and restrictions on Black Sea trade linked to the war in Ukraine. Regular air attacks on infrastructure and vessels have fur...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6875/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Larger Global Supply Fears Send CBOT Lower Ahead of WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast 2027 U.S. WTI crude oil at $65.39/brl, up about $5 from the prior forecast. President Trump late Monday claimed the U.S. has swept the entire Strait of Hormuz (SOH) for sea mines. Iran’s security council said...
Understanding Protein Content in Soymeal
Key Takeaways: Soymeal with 44 percent protein generally contains more soybean hulls and fiber, while 48 percent soymeal is more extensively dehulled, resulting in higher protein concentration and lower fiber. CBOT soymeal futures were lowered from a 48 percent to 47.5 percent protein specific...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s annual urban consumer inflation rate is at 14.9 percent for July 2026, up from 14.3 percent in June. Nationwide annual inflation stands at 13.0 percent. Pakistan’s wheat and wheat flour prices continue to move...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather overrode the Black Sea export impacts in last week’s trade and left more bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT. Managed money traders sold 65,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 11 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.405/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.795/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $1.8...
Market Commentary: WASDE, Black Sea, and Iran Offer Offsetting Effects on Grain Futures
What You Need to Know Today: Tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend with Iran demanding the U.S. make multiple concessions that are likely non-starters before traffic can flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a mutual defense agreeme...
Senate Farm Bill: What’s Next?
Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has urged farmers to apply pressure on the failed farm bill during the August recess. His intent is to hold another vote on the legislation as soon as possible upon the Senate’s return from a five-week break on 14 September. From a parliamentary perspecti...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Weather continues to dominate the Argentine grain market. Rainfall persisted across much of the country’s agricultural region during the week, accompanied by unusually warm temperatures. As a result, soil moisture profiles remain fully recharged across most production areas. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7625/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.4/short ton, down $3.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Attention Turns to August WASDE Yield Estimates
What You Need to Know Today: Traders are increasingly focused on next Wednesday’s August WASDE report, with corn and soybean yield estimates expected to drive the next major move in grain markets. Recent crop condition declines and late-July heat have increased uncertainty around USDA&rs...
WPI August Grain Balance Sheet Projections
Key Takeaways: WPI’s 2025/26 corn export models continue to reflect strong international demand and put the total marketing year volume slightly above USDA’s estimates. Strong old crop corn exports are offset by weaker feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks slightly ele...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Awaiting New Catalysts
What You Need to Know Today: Iran has developed an initial draft plan that would prohibit U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to global energy trade. Although no restrictions have been enacted, the proposal adds anot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7475/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.8 f...
Market Commentary: Caution Beneath the Headlines
There are plenty of major headlines moving across the markets today, but the reaction beneath them remains cautious. Crude oil is holding steady despite reports of progress involving the Strait of Hormuz, corn and soybeans remain tied to changing weather forecasts, and wheat continues to weigh...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 July 2026 Russian grain prices declined sharply during the week under review as new-crop supplies entered the market and demand weakened. Corn and barley prices declined, while both milling and feed wheat and rye experienced larger losses. The harvest campaign...
Market Commentary: Improved Weather Outlook, Possible Iran Deal Send Grains, Oil Lower
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could “today or tomorrow” reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the Secretary’s claims, an attack on a vessel off the Omani coast suggests plenty of risk remains in forming a lo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.385/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.4/short ton, down $3.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region TMO, the Turkish Grain Board, has announced that milling wheat exports were allowed as of 29 July due to “sufficient domestic supplies.” All milling wheat exports will require approval of an export application; approva...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Halts, U.S. Weather Risks Send CBOT Higher
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump suspended the planned attacks on Iran and announced that the pieces for a framework for peace were in place in a weekend social media post. Iran, however, later said no efforts were underway to conduct negotiations with the U.S., though Oman indicat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0.4 from...
E15 Expansion Could Boost Corn Demand, But Adoption Faces Hurdles
Key Takeaways: E15 expansion would support corn and ethanol demand by increasing domestic biofuel consumption and reducing reliance on petroleum-based fuels. Year-round E15 has gained bipartisan momentum, but the policy remains in legislative limbo as lawmakers continue to negotiate provisions...
Senate Farm Bill Draft Released
Late Friday afternoon, Chairman John Boozman (R-Arkansas) released an updated draft of the Senate farm bill. The farm bill markup is scheduled for Thursday, 6 August at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Boozman has been negotiating with Ranking Minority Member Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota) to craft...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina's corn harvest has reached 69.8 percent of the national harvestable area. Harvest progress remains constrained primarily in southeastern Buenos Aires, where persistently high humidity has slowed grain dry-down and prevented moisture levels from reaching harvest standards. As a re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3925/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Record Soyoil Demand Contrasts With Grain Market Weakness
What You Need to Know Today: Record biofuel demand continues to support soyoil values, as EIA data show that May soyoil usage as a biofuel feedstock reached a record 1.434 billion pounds. The latest data reinforces the strength of renewable fuel demand and helps explain ongoing investment in a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.8/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Cattle Outperform Hogs on Quiet Day for Corn and Soy
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran resumed missile strikes after a brief pause in fighting, raising concerns that the five-month conflict could expand across the Middle East. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles, Kuwait reported a fatal strike, and drone attacks damaged two natural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9275/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, dow...