Recent Wheat Analysis
Market Commentary: Good Weather Trumps Demand
Markets opened today pretty much where they ended in the overnight and pretty much stayed that way all day, which is to say in the red. And it did so pretty much across the board on lower volume. There was just not any real change in the story of impending big U.S. crops arriving on top of big...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.21/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.6/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday but Friday is Another Day
Today’s trading opened with a head scratcher after USDA reported 135 KMT of U.S. corn sold to China. There isn’t any corn import demand in China, and if there was it probably would not originate from the U.S. It was quickly corrected to be bound to South Korea. Nonethele...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 712,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 761,000 MT were up 76 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2425/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $2.5 fro...
Further Identification of Mispricing in Ag Futures
WPI offers the following analysis as a continuation of last week’s work examining mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. Readers may recall that this work seeks to identify for the major agricultural commodities where along the forward curve current futures have the greatest er...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal News Fails to Excite Ag Markets
The CBOT tried to rally early on Wednesday after traders had the opportunity to react to the U.S.-Japan trade deal, but a lack of details left markets wondering about the true impact on U.S. balance sheets. That meant corn, soybeans, and wheat all settled lower for the day, with favorable Midwe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.6/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 July 2025 The new 2025/26 season export market is the driving force behind pricing patterns asking for more goods at the premium price. The southern federal district enjoyed bullish sentiments, while the rest of the country was waking up to what is going on...
Market Commentary: Weather Premia Withdrawn; Trade Talks Make Progress
CBOT futures saw mixed trade Tuesday with summer row crops pulling back amid a favorable Midwest weather forecast while wheat turned higher on slow sales from Russia. Corn and soybeans saw weaker trade develop overnight after the Crop Conditions report was positive and the weather forecasts con...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.255/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.8/short ton, up $2 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region A BRICS spokesman said that in light of the consolidation of companies in the grain trade, “BRICS countries must cooperate in antitrust policy and antitrust legislation” for the international grain trade. The feeling s...
Market Commentary: Grains and Livestock Take Diverging Paths
Grain and oilseed markets pulled back to start the week after favorable showers fell across the U.S. over the weekend. The moisture revived crop prospects and offered a meaningful buffer ahead of some heat that will build over parts of the Midwest this week. The weather outlook was enough to st...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 21 July)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.26/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.8/short ton, down $4...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Taxes The topic of export taxes continues to spark debate in Argentina, particularly soybean taxes. The return to a 33 percent rate for soybeans has made planting unviable in large parts of the agricultural area. In corn, the increase of 3 percentage points is less impactful, and t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money shifting into a slightly more bearish stance in the ag space as they added 25,490 contacts (37 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week. The more bearish positioning is surprising given the strength in futures that prevail...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3575/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.8/short ton, up $5.3 f...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Green Finish of a Bullish Week
The market was green across the board in grain and oilseed in the overnight and mostly finished that way in the day session except for soyoil, where profit taking prevailed. It seemed like a hot week for soyoil but after today’s session, it turned out to be corn that had the better week.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 494,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 432,900 MT were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up 7 perce...
Market Commentary: Quirky Day in a Quirky Week
It was a somewhat quirky day as grains took their lumps and soyoil supported beans. There was a new contract low in HRW, low volume trading corn and livestock, but high volume in soyoil. After trading 40,000 contracts, December soymeal settled unchanged, and moving in mere fractions, September...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.265/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.5/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Market Commentary: Three-Factor Rally for Soy Complex; Corn Extends Gains
Overnight trade saw short covering and corrective trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat but only the former two markets were able to hold their gains. Soybeans saw a bullish day from the confluence of three factors – the NOPA crush report, fresh “flash” export sales, and Presiden...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.205/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.5/short ton, up $4 from y...
Market Commentary: Good Weather Trumps Demand
Markets opened today pretty much where they ended in the overnight and pretty much stayed that way all day, which is to say in the red. And it did so pretty much across the board on lower volume. There was just not any real change in the story of impending big U.S. crops arriving on top of big...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.21/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.6/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday but Friday is Another Day
Today’s trading opened with a head scratcher after USDA reported 135 KMT of U.S. corn sold to China. There isn’t any corn import demand in China, and if there was it probably would not originate from the U.S. It was quickly corrected to be bound to South Korea. Nonethele...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 712,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 761,000 MT were up 76 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2425/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $2.5 fro...
Further Identification of Mispricing in Ag Futures
WPI offers the following analysis as a continuation of last week’s work examining mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. Readers may recall that this work seeks to identify for the major agricultural commodities where along the forward curve current futures have the greatest er...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal News Fails to Excite Ag Markets
The CBOT tried to rally early on Wednesday after traders had the opportunity to react to the U.S.-Japan trade deal, but a lack of details left markets wondering about the true impact on U.S. balance sheets. That meant corn, soybeans, and wheat all settled lower for the day, with favorable Midwe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.6/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 July 2025 The new 2025/26 season export market is the driving force behind pricing patterns asking for more goods at the premium price. The southern federal district enjoyed bullish sentiments, while the rest of the country was waking up to what is going on...
Market Commentary: Weather Premia Withdrawn; Trade Talks Make Progress
CBOT futures saw mixed trade Tuesday with summer row crops pulling back amid a favorable Midwest weather forecast while wheat turned higher on slow sales from Russia. Corn and soybeans saw weaker trade develop overnight after the Crop Conditions report was positive and the weather forecasts con...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.255/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.8/short ton, up $2 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region A BRICS spokesman said that in light of the consolidation of companies in the grain trade, “BRICS countries must cooperate in antitrust policy and antitrust legislation” for the international grain trade. The feeling s...
Market Commentary: Grains and Livestock Take Diverging Paths
Grain and oilseed markets pulled back to start the week after favorable showers fell across the U.S. over the weekend. The moisture revived crop prospects and offered a meaningful buffer ahead of some heat that will build over parts of the Midwest this week. The weather outlook was enough to st...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 21 July)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.26/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.8/short ton, down $4...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Taxes The topic of export taxes continues to spark debate in Argentina, particularly soybean taxes. The return to a 33 percent rate for soybeans has made planting unviable in large parts of the agricultural area. In corn, the increase of 3 percentage points is less impactful, and t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money shifting into a slightly more bearish stance in the ag space as they added 25,490 contacts (37 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week. The more bearish positioning is surprising given the strength in futures that prevail...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3575/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.8/short ton, up $5.3 f...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Green Finish of a Bullish Week
The market was green across the board in grain and oilseed in the overnight and mostly finished that way in the day session except for soyoil, where profit taking prevailed. It seemed like a hot week for soyoil but after today’s session, it turned out to be corn that had the better week.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 494,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 432,900 MT were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up 7 perce...
Market Commentary: Quirky Day in a Quirky Week
It was a somewhat quirky day as grains took their lumps and soyoil supported beans. There was a new contract low in HRW, low volume trading corn and livestock, but high volume in soyoil. After trading 40,000 contracts, December soymeal settled unchanged, and moving in mere fractions, September...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.265/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.5/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Market Commentary: Three-Factor Rally for Soy Complex; Corn Extends Gains
Overnight trade saw short covering and corrective trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat but only the former two markets were able to hold their gains. Soybeans saw a bullish day from the confluence of three factors – the NOPA crush report, fresh “flash” export sales, and Presiden...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.205/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.5/short ton, up $4 from y...