Recent Wheat Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2375/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, up $5.7 fr...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.6/short ton, up $0.3 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than traders and analysts expected. The findings are even more consequential as the U.S. heads towards a massive 2025 corn harvest and a soybean crop t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.3/short ton, down $2.1...
Sept. Grain Stocks Key Charts and Data
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria cancelled its tender for 200,000 MT of wheat. No reason was given for the cancellation but a new tender is expected shortly. Turkey’s wheat and barley production are seen as lower for 2025, by the FAO, with wheat produ...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ existing downward momentum. This bearishness was furthered by the looming U.S. government shutdown and China’s absence from the U.S. grai...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 29 September)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.4/short ton, up $0.8...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
“Zero Export Taxes”: The Controversy in Argentina Ahead of the elections, the Argentine government faced urgent pressure to secure hard currency and stabilize the exchange rate. To do so, it temporarily eliminated export duties on grains and by-products, effective until 31 October 2...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Tuesday, the EU Commission said it is considering a proposal to delay the implantation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that is currently scheduled to take effect on 30 December 2025 for large companies and 30 June 2026 for small companies. A final decision is...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and wheat. Funds added nearly 85,000 contracts to their all-ag futures net short last week and continue to hold a neutral/s...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/cwt. December corn moved below the 20-day moving average, a bearish signal. While corn opened and closed in the red, soybeans fl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.6/short ton, up $1.4...
2026 Minor Crop Acreage Outlook
Yesterday, WPI presented our initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year with a focus on the major crops (corn, soybeans, and all-wheat). Today, we extend that analysis to show our forecasts for more minor crop acres. Briefly, our modeling results show that producers across the U.S. a...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh wound, the patient is at least comforted. The quick end to Argentina’s export tax holiday means that it successfully supplanted a lot of U...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 12-18, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 539,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 43 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 896,000 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 18 percent f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.27/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.2/short ton, down $2.9 fro...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Rebalancing and Reducing
WPI’s initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres at the expense of corn while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, which will lead to a 0.4-pe...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.09/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.1/short ton, down $1.2 fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2375/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, up $5.7 fr...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.6/short ton, up $0.3 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Stocks Report Gives Bears the Upper Hand as Chart Support Erodes
Bears regained control at the CBOT on Tuesday after the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report found more corn, wheat, and sorghum supplies than traders and analysts expected. The findings are even more consequential as the U.S. heads towards a massive 2025 corn harvest and a soybean crop t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.08/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.3/short ton, down $2.1...
Sept. Grain Stocks Key Charts and Data
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria cancelled its tender for 200,000 MT of wheat. No reason was given for the cancellation but a new tender is expected shortly. Turkey’s wheat and barley production are seen as lower for 2025, by the FAO, with wheat produ...
Market Commentary: Nervous Consolidation Ahead of Grain Stocks and Looming Shutdown
The CBOT saw early pressure to start the week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybean harvests creating bearish sentiments that justified funds’ existing downward momentum. This bearishness was furthered by the looming U.S. government shutdown and China’s absence from the U.S. grai...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 29 September)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.4/short ton, up $0.8...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
“Zero Export Taxes”: The Controversy in Argentina Ahead of the elections, the Argentine government faced urgent pressure to secure hard currency and stabilize the exchange rate. To do so, it temporarily eliminated export duties on grains and by-products, effective until 31 October 2...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Tuesday, the EU Commission said it is considering a proposal to delay the implantation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that is currently scheduled to take effect on 30 December 2025 for large companies and 30 June 2026 for small companies. A final decision is...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders adding back to short positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and wheat. Funds added nearly 85,000 contracts to their all-ag futures net short last week and continue to hold a neutral/s...
Market Commentary: Slower But Unconventional Week Comes to an End
Volume was lower on Friday, as is generally par for the course. Notable metrics for the day include: December lean hogs hit a new contract high at 91.525/cwt. December corn moved below the 20-day moving average, a bearish signal. While corn opened and closed in the red, soybeans fl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1975/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.6/short ton, up $1.4...
2026 Minor Crop Acreage Outlook
Yesterday, WPI presented our initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year with a focus on the major crops (corn, soybeans, and all-wheat). Today, we extend that analysis to show our forecasts for more minor crop acres. Briefly, our modeling results show that producers across the U.S. a...
Market Commentary: Argentine Tax Holiday Ends, Trump Promises More Aid
With the damage from Argentina’s export tax suspension over, markets recovered from yesterday’s losses. Like putting a band aid on a fresh wound, the patient is at least comforted. The quick end to Argentina’s export tax holiday means that it successfully supplanted a lot of U...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 12-18, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 539,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 43 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 896,000 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 18 percent f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.27/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.2/short ton, down $2.9 fro...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Rebalancing and Reducing
WPI’s initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres at the expense of corn while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, which will lead to a 0.4-pe...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.09/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.1/short ton, down $1.2 fr...