Recent Wheat Analysis
Market Commentary: Mixed Signals
There were lots of mixed pressures on the market today, and this week overall. Outside markets were key among them. Trading volume was modest today, except for meal, oil, and livestock. On the week, livestock and soyoil took losses, while fund long positions held up for soymeal. While so...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 23-29, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 36 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 638,100 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 11 percent from the previo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.67/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.05/bushel, down $0.185 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324.4/short ton, down $2.1...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left before the weekend. Too, the September WASDE is looming next week and traders are positioning and adjusting expectations in advance of that re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7475/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.235/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, down $2.8 fr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Broad-based September Rally
The CBOT was higher once again with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soymeal all scoring new rally highs and bullish technical victories. In wheat in particular, fund managers are working hard to cover shorts as the technical outlook rapidly shifts bullish, which has driven much of this week’s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8075/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.215/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $329.3/short ton, up $8.5 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growing stocks. Even though the 2024 grain crop may be slightly lower than earlier estimates, Russia will have a solid export surplus. Dome...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply on Bullish Technicals; China-Canada Trade War Looms
The CBOT was nearly uniformly higher following the U.S. Labor Day holiday with wheat, corn, and soybeans all scoring strong gains and meaningful bullish technical developments. There wasn’t a major fundamental catalyst for any of the markets, rather the day’s trade seemed to build u...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, up $7.8 from...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 3 September)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Arabian Mills has set the share issue price range under their upcoming IPO. The IPO is expected to raise about $271 million. The total offering will be for 15.4 million shares, which represent...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
Market Commentary: Pre-Holiday Run-up Continued
This trading week marked a series of reversals, and the latest trend continued for the most part today. It was generally pre-holiday lower volume for corn, wheat, and lean hogs but there was outsized volume trading in soybeans. Some notable stats from today and the trading week include:...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.01/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.515/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $313/short ton, up $2.1 from yesterday...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Export Sales, Weather; Wheat Follows Through on Reversal
Thursday and Friday are the last two days of the month with a three-day weekend present to kick off September, which helped create a “risk off” short covering tone in the markets. Consequently, the major CBOT ag markets were all higher for the day with additional fundamental develop...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.96/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.925/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, up $2.6 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 16-22, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 8 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 576,800 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Continues Reversal; Corn Soy Fall on U.S. Weather
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures following through on Tuesday’s bullish technical reversal after Stats Canada forecast a 34-MMT all-wheat wheat crop, which was below traders’ expectations. That, combined with weather issues for some major wheat growing/exporting co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $3.9 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 August 2024 Kazakhstan announced they will close the borders with Russia for wheat from now until 31 December. This will put even more pressure on the Russian wheat market and may push them to offer softer offers for GASC tenders where they are the key players...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Suggests CBOT Has Made its Near-Term Lows
The CBOT saw technical trade emerge and dominate the day, which sent corn, wheat, and soybeans higher after a weak overnight start. The day’s strength was sufficient to score bullish reversals on the corn and wheat charts, which indicates near-term lows are likely for these commodities. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9275/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.865/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, up $4 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Iranian wheat farmers are complaining that the government has not yet paid them for wheat delivered earlier in 2024 and that this is impacting planting for the next wheat crop. Iran’s government bought 11.6...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Find New Lows; Soy Complex Rallies with Soyoil in the Lead
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with corn scoring new contract lows after Friday’s crop tour’s record-breaking yield forecast while wheat was on the defensive amid the ongoing pricing malaise affecting nearly every major exporter. The Paris wheat market is particularly beleaguered righ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat On 20 August, rainfall ranged from 2-10 millimeters across almost the entire province of Buenos Aires, the agricultural region of La Pampa, and Entre Ríos. The central and southeastern parts of Buenos Aires received similar amounts on 21 August. However, most of the core agri...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.865/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8075/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $3.7 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Drought in Romania has affected over 2 Mha of wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seed with about 40 percent of the crops having been destroyed. This is the fourth year of the past five in which drought has caused significant damage to Romania’s crops. Tunisia p...
Spring Wheat Quality
Some are raising concerns that cooler temperatures and excess late season rain have caused quality problems for the typically high protein/strong gluten spring wheat crop. There is the threat that the lower quality wheat will end up being delivered against futures contracts and is causing falli...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
Market Commentary: Little to Move the Market But it Moved Anyways
The only real market mover on this last trading day of the week was the Fed’s nod to rate cuts. It is still bearish in grains, and the soy complex continued its small rebound despite the prospect of record production. No doubt because of continued strong demand. It was the second da...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.91/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.28/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.73/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.5/short ton, up $0.4 from ye...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New Contract Lows; Corn, Soybeans Fall on Record Yields
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday with the Canadian rail workers strike and forecasts of record-breaking yields emboldening bears. Wheat futures scored new contract lows amid signs of weaker demand while corn and soybeans saw threats primarily from the ever-expanding production outlook for...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.935/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.615/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.1/short ton, down $4.6 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 9-15, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 492,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 45 percent from the previous week and 63 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 470,200 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9825/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.815/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed Signals
There were lots of mixed pressures on the market today, and this week overall. Outside markets were key among them. Trading volume was modest today, except for meal, oil, and livestock. On the week, livestock and soyoil took losses, while fund long positions held up for soymeal. While so...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 23-29, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 36 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 638,100 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 11 percent from the previo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.67/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.05/bushel, down $0.185 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324.4/short ton, down $2.1...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left before the weekend. Too, the September WASDE is looming next week and traders are positioning and adjusting expectations in advance of that re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7475/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.235/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $326.5/short ton, down $2.8 fr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Broad-based September Rally
The CBOT was higher once again with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soymeal all scoring new rally highs and bullish technical victories. In wheat in particular, fund managers are working hard to cover shorts as the technical outlook rapidly shifts bullish, which has driven much of this week’s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8075/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.215/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $329.3/short ton, up $8.5 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growing stocks. Even though the 2024 grain crop may be slightly lower than earlier estimates, Russia will have a solid export surplus. Dome...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply on Bullish Technicals; China-Canada Trade War Looms
The CBOT was nearly uniformly higher following the U.S. Labor Day holiday with wheat, corn, and soybeans all scoring strong gains and meaningful bullish technical developments. There wasn’t a major fundamental catalyst for any of the markets, rather the day’s trade seemed to build u...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, up $7.8 from...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 3 September)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Arabian Mills has set the share issue price range under their upcoming IPO. The IPO is expected to raise about $271 million. The total offering will be for 15.4 million shares, which represent...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
Market Commentary: Pre-Holiday Run-up Continued
This trading week marked a series of reversals, and the latest trend continued for the most part today. It was generally pre-holiday lower volume for corn, wheat, and lean hogs but there was outsized volume trading in soybeans. Some notable stats from today and the trading week include:...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.01/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.515/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $313/short ton, up $2.1 from yesterday...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Export Sales, Weather; Wheat Follows Through on Reversal
Thursday and Friday are the last two days of the month with a three-day weekend present to kick off September, which helped create a “risk off” short covering tone in the markets. Consequently, the major CBOT ag markets were all higher for the day with additional fundamental develop...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.96/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.925/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, up $2.6 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 16-22, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 8 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 576,800 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Continues Reversal; Corn Soy Fall on U.S. Weather
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures following through on Tuesday’s bullish technical reversal after Stats Canada forecast a 34-MMT all-wheat wheat crop, which was below traders’ expectations. That, combined with weather issues for some major wheat growing/exporting co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.3/short ton, down $3.9 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 August 2024 Kazakhstan announced they will close the borders with Russia for wheat from now until 31 December. This will put even more pressure on the Russian wheat market and may push them to offer softer offers for GASC tenders where they are the key players...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Suggests CBOT Has Made its Near-Term Lows
The CBOT saw technical trade emerge and dominate the day, which sent corn, wheat, and soybeans higher after a weak overnight start. The day’s strength was sufficient to score bullish reversals on the corn and wheat charts, which indicates near-term lows are likely for these commodities. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9275/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.865/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, up $4 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Iranian wheat farmers are complaining that the government has not yet paid them for wheat delivered earlier in 2024 and that this is impacting planting for the next wheat crop. Iran’s government bought 11.6...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Find New Lows; Soy Complex Rallies with Soyoil in the Lead
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with corn scoring new contract lows after Friday’s crop tour’s record-breaking yield forecast while wheat was on the defensive amid the ongoing pricing malaise affecting nearly every major exporter. The Paris wheat market is particularly beleaguered righ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat On 20 August, rainfall ranged from 2-10 millimeters across almost the entire province of Buenos Aires, the agricultural region of La Pampa, and Entre Ríos. The central and southeastern parts of Buenos Aires received similar amounts on 21 August. However, most of the core agri...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.865/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8075/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $3.7 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Drought in Romania has affected over 2 Mha of wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seed with about 40 percent of the crops having been destroyed. This is the fourth year of the past five in which drought has caused significant damage to Romania’s crops. Tunisia p...
Spring Wheat Quality
Some are raising concerns that cooler temperatures and excess late season rain have caused quality problems for the typically high protein/strong gluten spring wheat crop. There is the threat that the lower quality wheat will end up being delivered against futures contracts and is causing falli...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
Market Commentary: Little to Move the Market But it Moved Anyways
The only real market mover on this last trading day of the week was the Fed’s nod to rate cuts. It is still bearish in grains, and the soy complex continued its small rebound despite the prospect of record production. No doubt because of continued strong demand. It was the second da...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.91/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.28/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.73/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.5/short ton, up $0.4 from ye...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New Contract Lows; Corn, Soybeans Fall on Record Yields
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday with the Canadian rail workers strike and forecasts of record-breaking yields emboldening bears. Wheat futures scored new contract lows amid signs of weaker demand while corn and soybeans saw threats primarily from the ever-expanding production outlook for...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.935/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.615/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.1/short ton, down $4.6 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 9-15, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 492,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 45 percent from the previous week and 63 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 470,200 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 9 percent...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.9825/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.44/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.815/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $0.4 from...