Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the White House and, to a lesser degree, Beijing. One of the key outcomes of the recent meeting was that China will return to purchasing U.S. soybe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached a framework agreement prior to President Trump and President Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea at the end of Trump’s Asia tour. China&rs...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks
Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was $320 in today’s dollars. Futures across the board remain elevated, averaging about $380/cwt, an indication that tight supplies will l...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
What Spreads and Basis Are Saying About Soybean Exports
The government shutdown has entered its tenth day, leaving the grain markets without two weeks of export data. Fortunately, the USDA AMS and FGIS continue to publish the weekly Export Inspections report, leaving the grain industry not totally blind to exports. Even so, that report covers only a...
Livestock Roundup: China is Top Beef Importer of Brazilian and Australian Beef in September
Today was WASDE day, however, due to the government shutdown, that report has been suspended, as have been the reports usually highlighted below. Brazil's beef exports to China rose 38.3 percent in September from a year earlier, reaching 187,340 MT, according to the Brazilian industry group Abr...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 7.4 percentage points over the past week and reached 19.8 percent of the 7.8 MHa projected for the season. Favorable soil moisture continues to support early planting and put progress roughly 7 points ahead of last year. However, western, cent...
Can a Trade Deal Save U.S. 2025/26 Soybean Exports?
Wednesday’s headline in the ag markets was President Trump’s social media post that indicated soybeans will be on the agenda for his upcoming summit with President Xi. The news was the first significant acknowledgement by the administration since starting the trade war that it is ha...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
Market Commentary: Markets Hopeful but Guarded on China; CBOT Falls on Demand Worries
Technical selling, disappointment with the USDA’s latest policy moves, and favorable rains across the Midwest took a bearish toll on the CBOT markets Wednesday. The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut interest rates today and signaled a more dovish approach for the next several months, whic...
Market Commentary: Perfect Micro-Storm for Grains
The CBOT was higher on Tuesday in a continuation of the post-WASDE exuberance. Rather than USDA’s world balance sheets providing a reason to rally, however, it was the Crop Progress report, rumors of new export business, and progress in a U.S.-China trade agreement that motivated the day&...
Market Commentary: Waiting for Confirmation or Contradiction
The CBOT was mostly in the red to start the week with the bullishness from Friday’s WASDE report failing to trigger enthusiasm from bulls this week. Corn and soybeans both tried to rally and follow Friday’s bullish action, but quickly triggered farmer/hedge selling and profit taking...
WASDE Soybeans - Sep 2025
Soybeans – USDA’s Sep 2025 outlook is for higher U.S. ending stocks to 300 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average soybean price is forecast at $10.00 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal and the soybean oil prices are unchanged...
WASDE Wheat - Sep 2025
Wheat - USDA’s Sep 2025 outlook is for U.S. total wheat exports to increase by 25 million bushels to 900 million. That reduced ending stocks by 25 million bushels to 844 million - slightly less than last year. The projected 2025/26 seasonal average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushe...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
China’s Beef Outlook Amid a Shrinking Middle Class
Recently, the USDA FAS lowered its forecast for China’s 2025 beef consumption based on higher prices and the Middle Kingdom’s slowing economy. The USDA forecast consumption at 11.17 MMT, down 3 percent from 2024 and the first annual decline since 2017. The motivation behind th...
EV’s, Pork, and Trade
Last Friday China announced it would impose temporary anti-dumping duties on pork imports from the EU. China's commerce ministry said that the investigation has "preliminarily determined that imports of relevant pork and pig by-products originating in the European Union&nb...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite some dryness and uneven weather over the past few weeks, conditions ratings were generally steady, and – surprisingly – in t...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
WASDE Soybeans - August 2025
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean production for 2025/26 to 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average farm price for soybean is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean m...
WASDE Corn - August 2025
USDA’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is a record 188.8 bushels per acre, which is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. U.S. exports are increased 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion bushels. Regardless, U.S. ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2...
WASDE Wheat - August 2025
USDA increased their estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. Nevertheless, the 2025/26 season-average far...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in the core region in 40 years. While the improved soil moisture will be beneficial for corn planting that’s set to begin in about a month...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Taxes The topic of export taxes continues to spark debate in Argentina, particularly soybean taxes. The return to a 33 percent rate for soybeans has made planting unviable in large parts of the agricultural area. In corn, the increase of 3 percentage points is less impactful, and t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 July 2025 The export market is drawing all the attention and in the southern (export oriented) regions of Russia, demand and hunger for more business surpass supply, thus bringing prices back to previous levels, sometimes even higher. In some regions where ha...
European Market Analysis
Regional News President Trump announced 30 percent tariffs on imports from the EU effective 1 August even as the EU and U.S. trade negotiations continue. Western Europe saw heavy and mostly beneficial precipitation last week, but a dry trend is now emerging for the region. Last week...
WASDE Soybeans - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for increased ending stocks compared to last month: U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 was raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion on the assumption that demand for soybean oil for biofuel would increase. The U.S. seasonal average farm price of...
WASDE Corn - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. corn is a reduction in ending stocks from the June estimate of 1.75 billion bushels to 1.66 billion bushels. U.S. corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion; If realized, those exports would be record high. The seasonal average farm pr...
WASDE Wheat - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. wheat production to increase 8 million bushels to 1,929 million bushels. However, the estimate for U.S. wheat exports is raised by 25 million b...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Livestock Roundup: China Impact on Red Meat Markets
Pork export sales for the week ending 26 June slowed, following the large volume booked the previous week. However, in the last five weeks pork export sales have averaged over 30,000 MT per week. That is strong for this time of year. Outstanding pork sales at 202,497 MT are running about 10 per...
WASDE Soybeans – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024/25 as higher soybean meal disappearance increases 2 percent due to greater pork and poultry production. I...
WASDE Corn – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies to create higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago due to increases in both area and yield. Planted area is estimated to be 95.3 million acres and yield is projected t...
WASDE Wheat – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected l...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk freight markets saw strength emerge this week with the Capesize sector rallying in early trade, but giving up some of those gains at the week’s end. Panamax and Supramax markets pushed higher initially as well, but now look like they will head sideway...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn; Wheat Selling Continues; Cattle Wobble on ICE Rumors
The overnight CBOT trade showed corn pushing lower while the soy complex traded modestly higher on hopes for positive outcomes from the U.S.-China trade meeting this week. That trend quickly reversed, however, as corn became the upside leader in the day session on technical buying. Corn’s...
Market Commentary: Volatility But Stability
It was a very active open this morning with lots of lead changes as corn and soybean traders wrestled over whether bears or bulls were in control. Even winter wheat, which looked solidly in the green took a brief turn south. Volumes were robust and trade volatile but in the end, only bean oil a...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the White House and, to a lesser degree, Beijing. One of the key outcomes of the recent meeting was that China will return to purchasing U.S. soybe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached a framework agreement prior to President Trump and President Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea at the end of Trump’s Asia tour. China&rs...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks
Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was $320 in today’s dollars. Futures across the board remain elevated, averaging about $380/cwt, an indication that tight supplies will l...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
What Spreads and Basis Are Saying About Soybean Exports
The government shutdown has entered its tenth day, leaving the grain markets without two weeks of export data. Fortunately, the USDA AMS and FGIS continue to publish the weekly Export Inspections report, leaving the grain industry not totally blind to exports. Even so, that report covers only a...
Livestock Roundup: China is Top Beef Importer of Brazilian and Australian Beef in September
Today was WASDE day, however, due to the government shutdown, that report has been suspended, as have been the reports usually highlighted below. Brazil's beef exports to China rose 38.3 percent in September from a year earlier, reaching 187,340 MT, according to the Brazilian industry group Abr...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 7.4 percentage points over the past week and reached 19.8 percent of the 7.8 MHa projected for the season. Favorable soil moisture continues to support early planting and put progress roughly 7 points ahead of last year. However, western, cent...
Can a Trade Deal Save U.S. 2025/26 Soybean Exports?
Wednesday’s headline in the ag markets was President Trump’s social media post that indicated soybeans will be on the agenda for his upcoming summit with President Xi. The news was the first significant acknowledgement by the administration since starting the trade war that it is ha...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
Market Commentary: Markets Hopeful but Guarded on China; CBOT Falls on Demand Worries
Technical selling, disappointment with the USDA’s latest policy moves, and favorable rains across the Midwest took a bearish toll on the CBOT markets Wednesday. The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut interest rates today and signaled a more dovish approach for the next several months, whic...
Market Commentary: Perfect Micro-Storm for Grains
The CBOT was higher on Tuesday in a continuation of the post-WASDE exuberance. Rather than USDA’s world balance sheets providing a reason to rally, however, it was the Crop Progress report, rumors of new export business, and progress in a U.S.-China trade agreement that motivated the day&...
Market Commentary: Waiting for Confirmation or Contradiction
The CBOT was mostly in the red to start the week with the bullishness from Friday’s WASDE report failing to trigger enthusiasm from bulls this week. Corn and soybeans both tried to rally and follow Friday’s bullish action, but quickly triggered farmer/hedge selling and profit taking...
WASDE Soybeans - Sep 2025
Soybeans – USDA’s Sep 2025 outlook is for higher U.S. ending stocks to 300 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average soybean price is forecast at $10.00 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal and the soybean oil prices are unchanged...
WASDE Wheat - Sep 2025
Wheat - USDA’s Sep 2025 outlook is for U.S. total wheat exports to increase by 25 million bushels to 900 million. That reduced ending stocks by 25 million bushels to 844 million - slightly less than last year. The projected 2025/26 seasonal average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushe...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
China’s Beef Outlook Amid a Shrinking Middle Class
Recently, the USDA FAS lowered its forecast for China’s 2025 beef consumption based on higher prices and the Middle Kingdom’s slowing economy. The USDA forecast consumption at 11.17 MMT, down 3 percent from 2024 and the first annual decline since 2017. The motivation behind th...
EV’s, Pork, and Trade
Last Friday China announced it would impose temporary anti-dumping duties on pork imports from the EU. China's commerce ministry said that the investigation has "preliminarily determined that imports of relevant pork and pig by-products originating in the European Union&nb...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Firm on Trade Visit; Bullish Feedback Loop for Cattle
The CBOT saw early pressure develop after the USDA Crop Progress and Conditions report was more favorable than expected for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Despite some dryness and uneven weather over the past few weeks, conditions ratings were generally steady, and – surprisingly – in t...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
WASDE Soybeans - August 2025
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean production for 2025/26 to 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average farm price for soybean is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean m...
WASDE Corn - August 2025
USDA’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is a record 188.8 bushels per acre, which is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. U.S. exports are increased 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion bushels. Regardless, U.S. ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2...
WASDE Wheat - August 2025
USDA increased their estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. Nevertheless, the 2025/26 season-average far...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in the core region in 40 years. While the improved soil moisture will be beneficial for corn planting that’s set to begin in about a month...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Taxes The topic of export taxes continues to spark debate in Argentina, particularly soybean taxes. The return to a 33 percent rate for soybeans has made planting unviable in large parts of the agricultural area. In corn, the increase of 3 percentage points is less impactful, and t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 July 2025 The export market is drawing all the attention and in the southern (export oriented) regions of Russia, demand and hunger for more business surpass supply, thus bringing prices back to previous levels, sometimes even higher. In some regions where ha...
European Market Analysis
Regional News President Trump announced 30 percent tariffs on imports from the EU effective 1 August even as the EU and U.S. trade negotiations continue. Western Europe saw heavy and mostly beneficial precipitation last week, but a dry trend is now emerging for the region. Last week...
WASDE Soybeans - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for increased ending stocks compared to last month: U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 was raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion on the assumption that demand for soybean oil for biofuel would increase. The U.S. seasonal average farm price of...
WASDE Corn - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. corn is a reduction in ending stocks from the June estimate of 1.75 billion bushels to 1.66 billion bushels. U.S. corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion; If realized, those exports would be record high. The seasonal average farm pr...
WASDE Wheat - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. wheat production to increase 8 million bushels to 1,929 million bushels. However, the estimate for U.S. wheat exports is raised by 25 million b...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Livestock Roundup: China Impact on Red Meat Markets
Pork export sales for the week ending 26 June slowed, following the large volume booked the previous week. However, in the last five weeks pork export sales have averaged over 30,000 MT per week. That is strong for this time of year. Outstanding pork sales at 202,497 MT are running about 10 per...
WASDE Soybeans – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024/25 as higher soybean meal disappearance increases 2 percent due to greater pork and poultry production. I...
WASDE Corn – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies to create higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago due to increases in both area and yield. Planted area is estimated to be 95.3 million acres and yield is projected t...
WASDE Wheat – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected l...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk freight markets saw strength emerge this week with the Capesize sector rallying in early trade, but giving up some of those gains at the week’s end. Panamax and Supramax markets pushed higher initially as well, but now look like they will head sideway...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn; Wheat Selling Continues; Cattle Wobble on ICE Rumors
The overnight CBOT trade showed corn pushing lower while the soy complex traded modestly higher on hopes for positive outcomes from the U.S.-China trade meeting this week. That trend quickly reversed, however, as corn became the upside leader in the day session on technical buying. Corn’s...
Market Commentary: Volatility But Stability
It was a very active open this morning with lots of lead changes as corn and soybean traders wrestled over whether bears or bulls were in control. Even winter wheat, which looked solidly in the green took a brief turn south. Volumes were robust and trade volatile but in the end, only bean oil a...