Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.5425/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.5/short ton, up $5.9...
Livestock Round Up: Keeping Up With the Beef Market Policies
President Trump has opened the door to 100,000 MT of beef lean trimmings (limited to HTS codes 0201.30.5091, 0201.30.5097, 0202.30.5091, and 0202.30.5097) from countries listed under the “Other Countries” TRQ effective 1 September. These imports would not be subject to the over-quot...
Understanding Wool Marketing: How U.S. Prices Move With Australia Using the Last Five Years of Data
A Small Industry Tied to a Global Benchmark The U.S. wool industry is small by global standards but heavily export-dependent, with roughly 60 percent of U.S. wool leaving the country each year. Australia, by contrast, dominates world wool trade. Because the U.S. lacks a deep domestic auction ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Market Commentary: The Calendar Is Not in Control
Energy: Risk Over Rules Fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight. Tehran accused U.S. forces of striking a residential area after U.S. Central Command said its second round of attacks in three days targeted Iranian radar systems and mi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
Market Commentary: Contract Highs to Start September; Demand Destruction is the Point
What You Need to Know Today: The EPA offered an extension for 2025 RSF compliance reporting from 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026 and announced decisions on requests to exempt 34 small refineries from the requirements. The U.S. is stepping up attacks against Iran after two tankers carrying c...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply to $258/head last week, up $145 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices declined. The cutout rose to nearly $382/cwt, while fed cattle prices fell to $219/cwt, extending the rapid recovery in packer spreads that began in...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift on Profit Taking but Trend-Higher Regime Remains in Place
What You Need to Know Today: End-of-month profit taking sent the CBOT broadly lower, though corn and soybeans managed to post small gains to continue their rallies. Turkey’s foreign ministry claimed to have a plan to ensure safe passage for both Ukrainian and Russian grain vessels via th...
Trump Targets Meat Packing Sector with Latest Beef Announcement
As WPI reported on 21 August and on 27 August, President Trump has announced a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported without out-of-quota tariffs, which stand at 26.4 percent, allowing them in at 4.4 cents per kg, a move aimed at bring...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: After Bullish Week, WPI Bias is Higher but Risk Management More Important
What You Need to Know Today: Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all formed new contract or at least rally highs to close what has become one of the most uniformly bullish weeks in CBOT history. Escalations in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and attacks on civilian merchant vessels show n...
An Exploration of the Colorado River and Its Many Legal and Economic Canyons
You cannot escape the vortex of opinions about water scarcity in the Western United States, especially in the drought-stricken Colorado River Basin. Agriculture is the villain in many of these editorials. Agriculture uses too much water, so it should use less, is the refrain. We all wish it was...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: When Bottlenecks Move Markets
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Livestock Round Up: Ag Groups Push Back on Trump Beef Plan
As WPI reported on 21 August, President Trump has announced a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported outside of tariff-rate quotas, which stand at 26.4 percent, allowing imports at 4.4 cents per kg, a move aimed at bringing down costs f...
Why U.S. Lamb Prices Are Import-Anchored and Why Carcass Divergence Matters
Key Takeaways: Imports supply 70–75 percent of U.S. lamb disappearance, with Australia and New Zealand accounting for nearly all imported volume. The deficit is structural, not cyclical: domestic production cannot scale quickly enough to displace imports or reset the market’s refer...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Export, Yield, and Attack Headlines Drive Grains to New Highs
What You Need to Know Today: The day belonged to the bulls as fund buying and technical momentum boosted corn, soybeans, and wheat to new rally or contract highs. Wheat futures exploded Wednesday around the world after Russia indicated it will increase its attacks on Ukrainian export infrastru...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Falls Amid Shifting Economics
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 4–5 percent below our July outlook and will be 3 percent below 2025 levels. Costs are quickly...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3775/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Trade Dominates as Yields, Supplies Face Threats
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean crop ratings declined late Monday and set the stage for stronger CBOT trade Tuesday. Funds are in risk-on mode across the ag space, resulting in firm trade and solid gains for grains and oilseeds. Iran and Oman released a joint statement saying the...
The Netherlands: An Unlikely Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Despite its limited farmland, the Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter, focusing on high-value products such as dairy, flowers, meat, and vegetables. The Port of Rotterdam makes the Netherlands a major European agricultural trade hub, supporting significant processing an...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins swung back into positive territory at $114/head last week, improving $164 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices declined. The cutout rose nearly $8/cwt to $377/cwt, while fed cattle prices fell to $225/cwt, producing the strongest pack...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.995/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, up $2.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Yield Assessments Drive CBOT Reactions; Cattle Fall on Beef Import News
What You Need to Know Today: Pro Farmer’s crop tour pegged the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 173.2 BPA and anticipated a 15.344 Bbu crop – both figures well below expectations. Pro Farmer forecast 2026 U.S. soybean yields at 53.3 BPA, above most private estimates and USDA’s August W...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s August cattle on feed report was released Friday, with the total number of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more amounting to 11.1 million head, 102 percent of last year and the same as last month. Placements dropped in July to their lowest total for the month s...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
July 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks totaled 2.00 billion pounds, down 0.2 percent from June and 1.8 percent below July 2025 levels. The monthly decline contrasted with the typical 0.9 percent June-July increase and reflected a larger-than-seasonal drawdown in red meat inventories. Total...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Concerns about U.S. corn and soybean yields and continued disruptions in the Black Sea drove a week of bullish activity at the CBOT. Managed money traders bought 127,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 29 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the buyin...
Cattle on Feed - August 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed was up 2 percent to total 11.1 million head on August 1, 2026. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.42 million head, 11 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.62 million head, 7 percent below 2025. Other disappearance tot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.395/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.8/short ton, up $2 from ye...
Market Commentary: Bullish Momentum Continues for Corn and Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: There has already been a strong run of flash soybean sales announcements in recent weeks, but more than 1.4 MMT reported this morning is an exceptionally large single-day total with major implications for the market. If the sales to China and unknown destinations w...
President Trump Announces Move on Over Quota Beef Tariffs - Again
On Friday, at 6:57 AM, President Donald Trump announced, via a social media post, a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported outside of tariff-rate quotas—a move aimed at bringing down costs for American consumers. This is the secon...
How Much for That Bushel of Credibility?
In agriculture and food processing, we think a lot about infrastructure: transportation and storage, processing and packaging, distribution and delivery. It is a physical system of roads, railroads, and rivers; concrete and steel storage; processing plants, warehouses, and machinery; and, event...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.035/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.365/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, down $1.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Point to Lower Yield Potential
What You Need to Know Today: Day three of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found corn yield potential below last year in both Illinois and western Iowa. Illinois corn yields averaged 184.2 bushels/acre, down from 199.6 bushels/acre last year and the 199.2 bushels/acre three-year average, while wester...
Livestock Round Up: Broiler Exports Down to China, Up in Japan
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects China’s chicken imports to drop by 33 percent this year and another 15 percent next year, as domestic production outpaces growing consumption and the country’s own exports surge. In its annual report on the Chinese poultry...
Dairy: An Evolution in The Making?
Key Takeaways: $13 billion in new U.S. dairy processing investment is moving across the sector, led by cheese ($3.2 billion), milk and cream ($2.9 billion), and yogurt and cultured dairy ($2.8 billion), with butter-powder capacity ($1.6 billion) and ice cream ($530 million) rounding out the bu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.975/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3725/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.6/short ton, up $6.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Pressure Moves, Markets Reprice the Risk
Macro: Treasury Squeezes Yields, the Dollar Gives Way Today’s markets are offering a lesson in pressure: it rarely disappears — it simply moves. The U.S. Treasury stepped into the bond market after long-term yields surged to levels not seen in nearly two decades. By announcing plans...
What Makes a Beef Processing Plant Vulnerable to Closure?
Key Takeaways: With cattle supplies historically tight and packer margins deeply negative, beef processors are reducing excess slaughter capacity, with decisions over which plants to close driven by cattle availability, operating efficiency, and the ability to maintain high utilization rates...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.8/short ton, up $0.1 fr...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Hints at Rally Doubts
What You Need to Know Today: Declining crop conditions ratings and shaky results from the Pro Farmer crop tour sent grains sharply higher on Tuesday. The Pro Farmer tour in Ohio pegged the state yield at 180.18 BPA, about 5.5 BPA below the tour’s 2025 estimate. Similarly, the Pro Farmer...
USMCA 11th Hour and New Tariffs for Canada Not Over
Based on a Depression-era statute, President Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of exports to the U.S., or about 5.2 percent of the $383 billion worth of goods the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Of that total, about $39.3 billion was agricu...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply to -$51/head last week, up $116 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices declined. The cutout rebounded to $369/cwt while fed cattle prices fell to $229/cwt, producing a substantial recovery in packer margins. Profits rem...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Crop Tours Start and Weather Forecasts Shift
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. weather is getting more attention this week as conditions vary greatly across the western, central, and eastern corn belts, with the different regions battling dryness and too much rain simultaneously. The ProFarmer Crop Tour began today in Indiana and Nebrask...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather and pre-WASDE positioning last week overrode the Black Sea export and allowed bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT for the second straight week. Managed money traders sold 63,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 12.5 percent in the proce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.16/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $2.4 from yeste...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: Russia Resists Black Sea Truce, Cattle Processing Consolidating Further
What You Need to Know Today: Russia rejected calls for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, including a proposal to halt attacks on civilian shipping that could help restore grain flows from Ukrainian ports. Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close its Joslin, Illinois, beef processing facili...
Beef Capacity Disappearing
The big news in the cattle markets yesterday was Tyson Foods’ move to close two more beef plants. One of them, the Joslin, Illinois, plant was shuttered immediately after the announcement. The other, in Eagle Mountain, Utah, is a case-ready plant that does not slaughter cattle. Tyson also...
Inflation: Mixed Bag with CPI on Target and PPI Down and Iran War Hovering
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. In July, the CPI rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy, or the “core” infla...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8225/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Market Commentary: Potential Black Sea Deal Could Reshape Global Grain Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: Wholesale inflation was flat in July, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unchanged versus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. Core PPI rose 0.2 percent, also below expectations. The softer inflation data has reduced the odds of a September interest rate incre...
A Trade Case
Key Takeaways: The U.S. sheep industry is contracting. Lamb output and producer participation have declined sharply. Imports now account for most U.S. lamb consumption. Their roughly 70 percent share raises concerns about domestic capacity and resilience. USTR’s referral carries substant...
Livestock Roundup: Livestock WASDE
Yesterday, the USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), forecasting tighter beef and pork supplies and growing broiler supplies, resulting in a tighter red meat supply. Broiler production, however, continues to grow and is forecast to be up more than 3 percent. Beef...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8325/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, up $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: From Headlines to Hard Numbers
Macro: Relief Meets Reality July’s CPI report matched expectations. Headline inflation eased to 3.4 percent year over year, while core inflation declined to 2.5 percent. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.1 percent and core increased 0.2 percent. Equities and the U.S. dollar traded h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6875/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Larger Global Supply Fears Send CBOT Lower Ahead of WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast 2027 U.S. WTI crude oil at $65.39/brl, up about $5 from the prior forecast. President Trump late Monday claimed the U.S. has swept the entire Strait of Hormuz (SOH) for sea mines. Iran’s security council said...
Understanding Protein Content in Soymeal
Key Takeaways: Soymeal with 44 percent protein generally contains more soybean hulls and fiber, while 48 percent soymeal is more extensively dehulled, resulting in higher protein concentration and lower fiber. CBOT soymeal futures were lowered from a 48 percent to 47.5 percent protein specific...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply to -$167/head last week, down $89 from the prior week as fed cattle prices rebounded while the Choice cutout continued to weaken. The cutout slipped to $363/cwt, while fed cattle prices climbed to $235/cwt, reversing much of the recent improvement in pac...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather overrode the Black Sea export impacts in last week’s trade and left more bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT. Managed money traders sold 65,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 11 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.405/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.795/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $1.8...
Market Commentary: WASDE, Black Sea, and Iran Offer Offsetting Effects on Grain Futures
What You Need to Know Today: Tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend with Iran demanding the U.S. make multiple concessions that are likely non-starters before traffic can flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a mutual defense agreeme...
Senate Farm Bill: What’s Next?
Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has urged farmers to apply pressure on the failed farm bill during the August recess. His intent is to hold another vote on the legislation as soon as possible upon the Senate’s return from a five-week break on 14 September. From a parliamentary perspecti...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7625/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.4/short ton, down $3.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Attention Turns to August WASDE Yield Estimates
What You Need to Know Today: Traders are increasingly focused on next Wednesday’s August WASDE report, with corn and soybean yield estimates expected to drive the next major move in grain markets. Recent crop condition declines and late-July heat have increased uncertainty around USDA&rs...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Awaiting New Catalysts
What You Need to Know Today: Iran has developed an initial draft plan that would prohibit U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to global energy trade. Although no restrictions have been enacted, the proposal adds anot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1 from yest...
EU Marks Paradigm Shift with Cattle
For years, the EU treated its cows, pigs, and broilers mainly as a source of emissions to be reduced. This week the European Commission gave them a new job title: "critical infrastructure." According to the EU’s official livestock strategy presented in Strasbourg, France, livestock underp...
Wool Economics: A Missing U.S. Value Chain
Wool is one of the most misunderstood U.S. agricultural commodities. Fine wool in the 17–21 micron range commands premium prices in luxury apparel, technical outdoor gear, and high-end knitwear, while coarser wool is gaining support as building codes and standards shift toward natural-fib...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7475/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.8 f...
Market Commentary: Caution Beneath the Headlines
There are plenty of major headlines moving across the markets today, but the reaction beneath them remains cautious. Crude oil is holding steady despite reports of progress involving the Strait of Hormuz, corn and soybeans remain tied to changing weather forecasts, and wheat continues to weigh...
Market Commentary: Improved Weather Outlook, Possible Iran Deal Send Grains, Oil Lower
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could “today or tomorrow” reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the Secretary’s claims, an attack on a vessel off the Omani coast suggests plenty of risk remains in forming a lo...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins slipped modestly for the first time in four weeks, declining $15/head to -$78 as fed cattle prices firmed while boxed beef values continued to weaken. The Choice cutout eased another $2.63/cwt to $364.69, while dressed cattle prices fell only $2.76/cwt to $362.25/cwt, limiti...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.385/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.4/short ton, down $3.2...
Offal Meat: Challenges and Opportunities in a Global Market
Key Takeaways: Offal represents an important segment of global meat trade by adding value to underutilized portions of livestock carcasses and improving overall resource efficiency. Strong export demand for products such as pork variety meats and chicken feet allows processors to maximize carc...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Halts, U.S. Weather Risks Send CBOT Higher
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump suspended the planned attacks on Iran and announced that the pieces for a framework for peace were in place in a weekend social media post. Iran, however, later said no efforts were underway to conduct negotiations with the U.S., though Oman indicat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0.4 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3925/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Record Soyoil Demand Contrasts With Grain Market Weakness
What You Need to Know Today: Record biofuel demand continues to support soyoil values, as EIA data show that May soyoil usage as a biofuel feedstock reached a record 1.434 billion pounds. The latest data reinforces the strength of renewable fuel demand and helps explain ongoing investment in a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.8/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Cattle Outperform Hogs on Quiet Day for Corn and Soy
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran resumed missile strikes after a brief pause in fighting, raising concerns that the five-month conflict could expand across the Middle East. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles, Kuwait reported a fatal strike, and drone attacks damaged two natural...
Livestock Roundup: Senate Farm Bill Threats to Meat Industry
The Senate Agriculture Committee will take up the farm bill next week, and a number of amendments targeting the meat industry are expected to be offered. Two of the most potentially damaging are the Schumer amendment, based on his bill, the Family Grocery and Farmer Relief Act, and mandatory co...
The Consumer Reset: How GLP-1, Protein, and Value Are Reshaping Foodservice
The industry has spent two years bracing for GLP-1 medications to hollow out demand, but the data so far tells a more interesting story. Roughly one in eight adults currently uses a GLP-1, and an additional 29 percent of non-users say they would consider it if it became more accessible and cost...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9275/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, dow...
Market Commentary: War Moves Oil. Weather Moves Grain.
If Wednesday’s trade proved anything, it is that not every market is listening to the same headline. Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran sent crude oil sharply higher after Iran fired ballistic missiles at an American airbase in Jordan. President Trump promised a U.S. response, pus...
Small Ruminants: A Global Protein System the U.S. Market Has Yet to Price In
Executive Summary Sheep and goats represent one of the largest livestock protein systems in the world, with an estimated 2.3 billion head globally; however, they remain almost entirely absent from U.S. agricultural policy, trade strategy, and market forecasting. The U.S. small ruminant herd, at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.805/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.8/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally as Crop Ratings Fall; Global Shipping Becomes More Perilous
What You Need to Know Today: Shipping in the Black Sea is at a standstill, with neither Ukraine nor Russia yet ready to swerve in this game of maritime and export brinkmanship. Israeli media suggests the U.S. and Iran may be close to making a deal or at least restoring the memorandum of unders...
Brazil’s Emergence as a Major Pork Exporter
Key Takeaways: Brazil’s pork exports have more than doubled since 2019 as competitive feed costs, ASF-free status, and expanding global demand have strengthened the country’s position in international markets. Brazil’s abundant domestic production of corn and soybeans provide...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins continued to recover for a third consecutive week, improving $67/head to -$63/head as fed cattle prices fell about $30 in the past 5 weeks. The Choice cutout slipped another $5/cwt to $367/cwt, but fed cattle prices fell an even steeper $12/cwt to $365/cwt (dressed), allowin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1375/bushel, down $0.3975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.1/short ton, down $11.1...
Market Commentary: Commodity Sell-Off on Middle East De-escalation and Border Reopening
What You Need to Know Today: It was just one of those days where seemingly everything was in the red as part of a broader risk-off economic sentiment amid de-escalation headlines in the Middle East. Other key fundamentals were also bearish, including the resumption of Mexican cattle imports an...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Riskier on Drought, Cost Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026, though rising cost pressures and pullbacks in cattle prices increase risks. Drought remains a key concern for much of the cow-calf industry this year, with rising feed cos...
New World Screwworm: Phased Re-Opening of Mexican Border
USDA announced on Friday the coordinated, phased reopening of southern U.S.-Mexico livestock ports starting 24 August 2026, after more than a year of closures due to the spread of New World screwworm (NWS). Douglas, Arizona, will be the first port of entry to resume cattle trade on 24 August. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.2/short ton, up $3.3 from yes...
U.S. Cattle on Feed - July 1 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed on July 1 totaled 11.4 million head, 2 percent above July 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.40 million head, 3 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during June totaled 1.66 million head, 3 percent below 2025. Other disappearance totaled 50,0...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Headlines Shake Wheat Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The Trump administration announced new tariffs of 10 percent to 12.5 percent on imports from 60 major U.S. trading partners as part of a Section 301 action aimed at combating forced labor in global supply chains. Countries that have agreed to adopt and enforce bans...
Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today, along with the semi-annual cattle inventory report. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more amounted to 11.4 million head, or 102 percent of last year. All cattle and calves totaled 94.2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.9625/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, down $1 f...
Market Commentary: Oil Surge, Weather Risks and Export Demand Drive Grain Market Strength
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices surged today following reports of tanker attacks off the coast of Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels and renewed U.S. threats to escalate military strikes against Iran, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Brent crud...
Shifts in Global Hunger
Key Takeaways: The latest UN data shows solid progress reducing global hunger and food insecurity. The geography of hunger-affected people has shifted substantially, however, and Africa is now the most affected region. To understand why hunger patterns have shifted and what policy option...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed and Semi-Annual Inventory Report Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 July will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 102.2 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.327 million head. If accurate, that would be the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.5425/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.5/short ton, up $5.9...
Livestock Round Up: Keeping Up With the Beef Market Policies
President Trump has opened the door to 100,000 MT of beef lean trimmings (limited to HTS codes 0201.30.5091, 0201.30.5097, 0202.30.5091, and 0202.30.5097) from countries listed under the “Other Countries” TRQ effective 1 September. These imports would not be subject to the over-quot...
Understanding Wool Marketing: How U.S. Prices Move With Australia Using the Last Five Years of Data
A Small Industry Tied to a Global Benchmark The U.S. wool industry is small by global standards but heavily export-dependent, with roughly 60 percent of U.S. wool leaving the country each year. Australia, by contrast, dominates world wool trade. Because the U.S. lacks a deep domestic auction ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Market Commentary: The Calendar Is Not in Control
Energy: Risk Over Rules Fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight. Tehran accused U.S. forces of striking a residential area after U.S. Central Command said its second round of attacks in three days targeted Iranian radar systems and mi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
Market Commentary: Contract Highs to Start September; Demand Destruction is the Point
What You Need to Know Today: The EPA offered an extension for 2025 RSF compliance reporting from 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026 and announced decisions on requests to exempt 34 small refineries from the requirements. The U.S. is stepping up attacks against Iran after two tankers carrying c...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply to $258/head last week, up $145 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices declined. The cutout rose to nearly $382/cwt, while fed cattle prices fell to $219/cwt, extending the rapid recovery in packer spreads that began in...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift on Profit Taking but Trend-Higher Regime Remains in Place
What You Need to Know Today: End-of-month profit taking sent the CBOT broadly lower, though corn and soybeans managed to post small gains to continue their rallies. Turkey’s foreign ministry claimed to have a plan to ensure safe passage for both Ukrainian and Russian grain vessels via th...
Trump Targets Meat Packing Sector with Latest Beef Announcement
As WPI reported on 21 August and on 27 August, President Trump has announced a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported without out-of-quota tariffs, which stand at 26.4 percent, allowing them in at 4.4 cents per kg, a move aimed at bring...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: After Bullish Week, WPI Bias is Higher but Risk Management More Important
What You Need to Know Today: Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all formed new contract or at least rally highs to close what has become one of the most uniformly bullish weeks in CBOT history. Escalations in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and attacks on civilian merchant vessels show n...
An Exploration of the Colorado River and Its Many Legal and Economic Canyons
You cannot escape the vortex of opinions about water scarcity in the Western United States, especially in the drought-stricken Colorado River Basin. Agriculture is the villain in many of these editorials. Agriculture uses too much water, so it should use less, is the refrain. We all wish it was...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: When Bottlenecks Move Markets
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Livestock Round Up: Ag Groups Push Back on Trump Beef Plan
As WPI reported on 21 August, President Trump has announced a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported outside of tariff-rate quotas, which stand at 26.4 percent, allowing imports at 4.4 cents per kg, a move aimed at bringing down costs f...
Why U.S. Lamb Prices Are Import-Anchored and Why Carcass Divergence Matters
Key Takeaways: Imports supply 70–75 percent of U.S. lamb disappearance, with Australia and New Zealand accounting for nearly all imported volume. The deficit is structural, not cyclical: domestic production cannot scale quickly enough to displace imports or reset the market’s refer...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Export, Yield, and Attack Headlines Drive Grains to New Highs
What You Need to Know Today: The day belonged to the bulls as fund buying and technical momentum boosted corn, soybeans, and wheat to new rally or contract highs. Wheat futures exploded Wednesday around the world after Russia indicated it will increase its attacks on Ukrainian export infrastru...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Falls Amid Shifting Economics
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 4–5 percent below our July outlook and will be 3 percent below 2025 levels. Costs are quickly...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3775/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Trade Dominates as Yields, Supplies Face Threats
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean crop ratings declined late Monday and set the stage for stronger CBOT trade Tuesday. Funds are in risk-on mode across the ag space, resulting in firm trade and solid gains for grains and oilseeds. Iran and Oman released a joint statement saying the...
The Netherlands: An Unlikely Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Despite its limited farmland, the Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter, focusing on high-value products such as dairy, flowers, meat, and vegetables. The Port of Rotterdam makes the Netherlands a major European agricultural trade hub, supporting significant processing an...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins swung back into positive territory at $114/head last week, improving $164 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices declined. The cutout rose nearly $8/cwt to $377/cwt, while fed cattle prices fell to $225/cwt, producing the strongest pack...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.995/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, up $2.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Yield Assessments Drive CBOT Reactions; Cattle Fall on Beef Import News
What You Need to Know Today: Pro Farmer’s crop tour pegged the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 173.2 BPA and anticipated a 15.344 Bbu crop – both figures well below expectations. Pro Farmer forecast 2026 U.S. soybean yields at 53.3 BPA, above most private estimates and USDA’s August W...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s August cattle on feed report was released Friday, with the total number of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more amounting to 11.1 million head, 102 percent of last year and the same as last month. Placements dropped in July to their lowest total for the month s...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
July 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks totaled 2.00 billion pounds, down 0.2 percent from June and 1.8 percent below July 2025 levels. The monthly decline contrasted with the typical 0.9 percent June-July increase and reflected a larger-than-seasonal drawdown in red meat inventories. Total...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Concerns about U.S. corn and soybean yields and continued disruptions in the Black Sea drove a week of bullish activity at the CBOT. Managed money traders bought 127,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 29 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the buyin...
Cattle on Feed - August 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed was up 2 percent to total 11.1 million head on August 1, 2026. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.42 million head, 11 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.62 million head, 7 percent below 2025. Other disappearance tot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.395/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.8/short ton, up $2 from ye...
Market Commentary: Bullish Momentum Continues for Corn and Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: There has already been a strong run of flash soybean sales announcements in recent weeks, but more than 1.4 MMT reported this morning is an exceptionally large single-day total with major implications for the market. If the sales to China and unknown destinations w...
President Trump Announces Move on Over Quota Beef Tariffs - Again
On Friday, at 6:57 AM, President Donald Trump announced, via a social media post, a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported outside of tariff-rate quotas—a move aimed at bringing down costs for American consumers. This is the secon...
How Much for That Bushel of Credibility?
In agriculture and food processing, we think a lot about infrastructure: transportation and storage, processing and packaging, distribution and delivery. It is a physical system of roads, railroads, and rivers; concrete and steel storage; processing plants, warehouses, and machinery; and, event...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.035/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.365/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, down $1.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Point to Lower Yield Potential
What You Need to Know Today: Day three of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found corn yield potential below last year in both Illinois and western Iowa. Illinois corn yields averaged 184.2 bushels/acre, down from 199.6 bushels/acre last year and the 199.2 bushels/acre three-year average, while wester...
Livestock Round Up: Broiler Exports Down to China, Up in Japan
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects China’s chicken imports to drop by 33 percent this year and another 15 percent next year, as domestic production outpaces growing consumption and the country’s own exports surge. In its annual report on the Chinese poultry...
Dairy: An Evolution in The Making?
Key Takeaways: $13 billion in new U.S. dairy processing investment is moving across the sector, led by cheese ($3.2 billion), milk and cream ($2.9 billion), and yogurt and cultured dairy ($2.8 billion), with butter-powder capacity ($1.6 billion) and ice cream ($530 million) rounding out the bu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.975/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3725/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.6/short ton, up $6.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Pressure Moves, Markets Reprice the Risk
Macro: Treasury Squeezes Yields, the Dollar Gives Way Today’s markets are offering a lesson in pressure: it rarely disappears — it simply moves. The U.S. Treasury stepped into the bond market after long-term yields surged to levels not seen in nearly two decades. By announcing plans...
What Makes a Beef Processing Plant Vulnerable to Closure?
Key Takeaways: With cattle supplies historically tight and packer margins deeply negative, beef processors are reducing excess slaughter capacity, with decisions over which plants to close driven by cattle availability, operating efficiency, and the ability to maintain high utilization rates...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.8/short ton, up $0.1 fr...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Hints at Rally Doubts
What You Need to Know Today: Declining crop conditions ratings and shaky results from the Pro Farmer crop tour sent grains sharply higher on Tuesday. The Pro Farmer tour in Ohio pegged the state yield at 180.18 BPA, about 5.5 BPA below the tour’s 2025 estimate. Similarly, the Pro Farmer...
USMCA 11th Hour and New Tariffs for Canada Not Over
Based on a Depression-era statute, President Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of exports to the U.S., or about 5.2 percent of the $383 billion worth of goods the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Of that total, about $39.3 billion was agricu...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply to -$51/head last week, up $116 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices declined. The cutout rebounded to $369/cwt while fed cattle prices fell to $229/cwt, producing a substantial recovery in packer margins. Profits rem...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Crop Tours Start and Weather Forecasts Shift
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. weather is getting more attention this week as conditions vary greatly across the western, central, and eastern corn belts, with the different regions battling dryness and too much rain simultaneously. The ProFarmer Crop Tour began today in Indiana and Nebrask...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather and pre-WASDE positioning last week overrode the Black Sea export and allowed bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT for the second straight week. Managed money traders sold 63,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 12.5 percent in the proce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.16/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $2.4 from yeste...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: Russia Resists Black Sea Truce, Cattle Processing Consolidating Further
What You Need to Know Today: Russia rejected calls for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, including a proposal to halt attacks on civilian shipping that could help restore grain flows from Ukrainian ports. Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close its Joslin, Illinois, beef processing facili...
Beef Capacity Disappearing
The big news in the cattle markets yesterday was Tyson Foods’ move to close two more beef plants. One of them, the Joslin, Illinois, plant was shuttered immediately after the announcement. The other, in Eagle Mountain, Utah, is a case-ready plant that does not slaughter cattle. Tyson also...
Inflation: Mixed Bag with CPI on Target and PPI Down and Iran War Hovering
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. In July, the CPI rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy, or the “core” infla...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8225/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Market Commentary: Potential Black Sea Deal Could Reshape Global Grain Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: Wholesale inflation was flat in July, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unchanged versus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. Core PPI rose 0.2 percent, also below expectations. The softer inflation data has reduced the odds of a September interest rate incre...
A Trade Case
Key Takeaways: The U.S. sheep industry is contracting. Lamb output and producer participation have declined sharply. Imports now account for most U.S. lamb consumption. Their roughly 70 percent share raises concerns about domestic capacity and resilience. USTR’s referral carries substant...
Livestock Roundup: Livestock WASDE
Yesterday, the USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), forecasting tighter beef and pork supplies and growing broiler supplies, resulting in a tighter red meat supply. Broiler production, however, continues to grow and is forecast to be up more than 3 percent. Beef...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8325/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, up $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: From Headlines to Hard Numbers
Macro: Relief Meets Reality July’s CPI report matched expectations. Headline inflation eased to 3.4 percent year over year, while core inflation declined to 2.5 percent. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.1 percent and core increased 0.2 percent. Equities and the U.S. dollar traded h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6875/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Larger Global Supply Fears Send CBOT Lower Ahead of WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast 2027 U.S. WTI crude oil at $65.39/brl, up about $5 from the prior forecast. President Trump late Monday claimed the U.S. has swept the entire Strait of Hormuz (SOH) for sea mines. Iran’s security council said...
Understanding Protein Content in Soymeal
Key Takeaways: Soymeal with 44 percent protein generally contains more soybean hulls and fiber, while 48 percent soymeal is more extensively dehulled, resulting in higher protein concentration and lower fiber. CBOT soymeal futures were lowered from a 48 percent to 47.5 percent protein specific...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply to -$167/head last week, down $89 from the prior week as fed cattle prices rebounded while the Choice cutout continued to weaken. The cutout slipped to $363/cwt, while fed cattle prices climbed to $235/cwt, reversing much of the recent improvement in pac...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather overrode the Black Sea export impacts in last week’s trade and left more bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT. Managed money traders sold 65,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 11 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.405/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.795/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $1.8...
Market Commentary: WASDE, Black Sea, and Iran Offer Offsetting Effects on Grain Futures
What You Need to Know Today: Tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend with Iran demanding the U.S. make multiple concessions that are likely non-starters before traffic can flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a mutual defense agreeme...
Senate Farm Bill: What’s Next?
Senator John Boozman (R-Arkansas) has urged farmers to apply pressure on the failed farm bill during the August recess. His intent is to hold another vote on the legislation as soon as possible upon the Senate’s return from a five-week break on 14 September. From a parliamentary perspecti...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7625/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.4/short ton, down $3.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Attention Turns to August WASDE Yield Estimates
What You Need to Know Today: Traders are increasingly focused on next Wednesday’s August WASDE report, with corn and soybean yield estimates expected to drive the next major move in grain markets. Recent crop condition declines and late-July heat have increased uncertainty around USDA&rs...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Awaiting New Catalysts
What You Need to Know Today: Iran has developed an initial draft plan that would prohibit U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to global energy trade. Although no restrictions have been enacted, the proposal adds anot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1 from yest...
EU Marks Paradigm Shift with Cattle
For years, the EU treated its cows, pigs, and broilers mainly as a source of emissions to be reduced. This week the European Commission gave them a new job title: "critical infrastructure." According to the EU’s official livestock strategy presented in Strasbourg, France, livestock underp...
Wool Economics: A Missing U.S. Value Chain
Wool is one of the most misunderstood U.S. agricultural commodities. Fine wool in the 17–21 micron range commands premium prices in luxury apparel, technical outdoor gear, and high-end knitwear, while coarser wool is gaining support as building codes and standards shift toward natural-fib...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7475/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.8 f...
Market Commentary: Caution Beneath the Headlines
There are plenty of major headlines moving across the markets today, but the reaction beneath them remains cautious. Crude oil is holding steady despite reports of progress involving the Strait of Hormuz, corn and soybeans remain tied to changing weather forecasts, and wheat continues to weigh...
Market Commentary: Improved Weather Outlook, Possible Iran Deal Send Grains, Oil Lower
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could “today or tomorrow” reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the Secretary’s claims, an attack on a vessel off the Omani coast suggests plenty of risk remains in forming a lo...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins slipped modestly for the first time in four weeks, declining $15/head to -$78 as fed cattle prices firmed while boxed beef values continued to weaken. The Choice cutout eased another $2.63/cwt to $364.69, while dressed cattle prices fell only $2.76/cwt to $362.25/cwt, limiti...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.385/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.4/short ton, down $3.2...
Offal Meat: Challenges and Opportunities in a Global Market
Key Takeaways: Offal represents an important segment of global meat trade by adding value to underutilized portions of livestock carcasses and improving overall resource efficiency. Strong export demand for products such as pork variety meats and chicken feet allows processors to maximize carc...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Halts, U.S. Weather Risks Send CBOT Higher
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump suspended the planned attacks on Iran and announced that the pieces for a framework for peace were in place in a weekend social media post. Iran, however, later said no efforts were underway to conduct negotiations with the U.S., though Oman indicat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0.4 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3925/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Record Soyoil Demand Contrasts With Grain Market Weakness
What You Need to Know Today: Record biofuel demand continues to support soyoil values, as EIA data show that May soyoil usage as a biofuel feedstock reached a record 1.434 billion pounds. The latest data reinforces the strength of renewable fuel demand and helps explain ongoing investment in a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.8/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Cattle Outperform Hogs on Quiet Day for Corn and Soy
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran resumed missile strikes after a brief pause in fighting, raising concerns that the five-month conflict could expand across the Middle East. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles, Kuwait reported a fatal strike, and drone attacks damaged two natural...
Livestock Roundup: Senate Farm Bill Threats to Meat Industry
The Senate Agriculture Committee will take up the farm bill next week, and a number of amendments targeting the meat industry are expected to be offered. Two of the most potentially damaging are the Schumer amendment, based on his bill, the Family Grocery and Farmer Relief Act, and mandatory co...
The Consumer Reset: How GLP-1, Protein, and Value Are Reshaping Foodservice
The industry has spent two years bracing for GLP-1 medications to hollow out demand, but the data so far tells a more interesting story. Roughly one in eight adults currently uses a GLP-1, and an additional 29 percent of non-users say they would consider it if it became more accessible and cost...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9275/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, dow...
Market Commentary: War Moves Oil. Weather Moves Grain.
If Wednesday’s trade proved anything, it is that not every market is listening to the same headline. Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran sent crude oil sharply higher after Iran fired ballistic missiles at an American airbase in Jordan. President Trump promised a U.S. response, pus...
Small Ruminants: A Global Protein System the U.S. Market Has Yet to Price In
Executive Summary Sheep and goats represent one of the largest livestock protein systems in the world, with an estimated 2.3 billion head globally; however, they remain almost entirely absent from U.S. agricultural policy, trade strategy, and market forecasting. The U.S. small ruminant herd, at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.805/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.8/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally as Crop Ratings Fall; Global Shipping Becomes More Perilous
What You Need to Know Today: Shipping in the Black Sea is at a standstill, with neither Ukraine nor Russia yet ready to swerve in this game of maritime and export brinkmanship. Israeli media suggests the U.S. and Iran may be close to making a deal or at least restoring the memorandum of unders...
Brazil’s Emergence as a Major Pork Exporter
Key Takeaways: Brazil’s pork exports have more than doubled since 2019 as competitive feed costs, ASF-free status, and expanding global demand have strengthened the country’s position in international markets. Brazil’s abundant domestic production of corn and soybeans provide...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins continued to recover for a third consecutive week, improving $67/head to -$63/head as fed cattle prices fell about $30 in the past 5 weeks. The Choice cutout slipped another $5/cwt to $367/cwt, but fed cattle prices fell an even steeper $12/cwt to $365/cwt (dressed), allowin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1375/bushel, down $0.3975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.1/short ton, down $11.1...
Market Commentary: Commodity Sell-Off on Middle East De-escalation and Border Reopening
What You Need to Know Today: It was just one of those days where seemingly everything was in the red as part of a broader risk-off economic sentiment amid de-escalation headlines in the Middle East. Other key fundamentals were also bearish, including the resumption of Mexican cattle imports an...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Riskier on Drought, Cost Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026, though rising cost pressures and pullbacks in cattle prices increase risks. Drought remains a key concern for much of the cow-calf industry this year, with rising feed cos...
New World Screwworm: Phased Re-Opening of Mexican Border
USDA announced on Friday the coordinated, phased reopening of southern U.S.-Mexico livestock ports starting 24 August 2026, after more than a year of closures due to the spread of New World screwworm (NWS). Douglas, Arizona, will be the first port of entry to resume cattle trade on 24 August. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.2/short ton, up $3.3 from yes...
U.S. Cattle on Feed - July 1 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed on July 1 totaled 11.4 million head, 2 percent above July 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.40 million head, 3 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during June totaled 1.66 million head, 3 percent below 2025. Other disappearance totaled 50,0...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Headlines Shake Wheat Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The Trump administration announced new tariffs of 10 percent to 12.5 percent on imports from 60 major U.S. trading partners as part of a Section 301 action aimed at combating forced labor in global supply chains. Countries that have agreed to adopt and enforce bans...
Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory Reports
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today, along with the semi-annual cattle inventory report. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more amounted to 11.4 million head, or 102 percent of last year. All cattle and calves totaled 94.2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.9625/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, down $1 f...
Market Commentary: Oil Surge, Weather Risks and Export Demand Drive Grain Market Strength
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices surged today following reports of tanker attacks off the coast of Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels and renewed U.S. threats to escalate military strikes against Iran, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Brent crud...
Shifts in Global Hunger
Key Takeaways: The latest UN data shows solid progress reducing global hunger and food insecurity. The geography of hunger-affected people has shifted substantially, however, and Africa is now the most affected region. To understand why hunger patterns have shifted and what policy option...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed and Semi-Annual Inventory Report Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 July will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 102.2 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.327 million head. If accurate, that would be the...