Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 –23 May 2025 Grain markets finally realized that the new crop is near and bearish adjustments between the old crop and new crop started to become a reality like never before. Only Siberia is still waiting while the rest of the country is watching the export new c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 –16 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The grain market was relatively stable, however, the gap between the new crop and old crop price indicators is getting wider and wider. The export market is just finishing up the marathon run where everybody knows the winner, the qu...
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...
Wheat Problem Areas
As noted yesterday, global wheat consumption has been growing faster than the expansion in production. Sometimes it takes non-agricultural researchers to look at an issue in a different way. Petroleum engineers at the Colorado School of Mines studied global areas where the loss of sub-surface s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian analysts from IKRAR increased the wheat production forecast in Russia by 1.3 MMT to reach 83.8 MMT. They attribute the upgrade to rains in the wheat belt of Russia during the first 10 days of May. As a result, they also revis...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 April – 2 May 2025 Russian audit, corporate finance, and consultancy company BEFL published a rating of Russia’s largest megafarms which included 75 companies – half the number registered a year ago. This is telling us that large farms are becom...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The spring planting campaign in Russia is in full swing. Fifty-six regions of Russia are reportedly planting spring crops, and this season is showing much better speed than last year. To date, around 10.5 million hectares (Mha) a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that around 90 percent of all winter crops are in good and satisfactory condition. According to Mr. Mishustin, winter crops cover around 20 million ha (Mha). He is expecting that...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Dmitriy Patrushev, the Vice Premier of Russia, announced that during 2025 Russian farmers will plant around 84 million ha (Mha) which is up almost 1 Mha from last season. 20 Mha have already been planted with winter crops. Accordi...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 March – 4 April 2025 Russian wheat, the only de-facto exportable commodity for the moment, is relatively stable but shows the first signs of appreciation. This is happening amid solid demand from exporters and melting stocks. As of 1 March, Russian wheat stocks s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture once again announced revised figures for the 2024 crop including occupied territories of Ukraine. The total crop size showed 129.8 MMT - this is the number the Russian Statistics Agency recently reported. For re...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news remains light but the justification for the day’s declines were expectations for USDA to report expanded corn area and larger wheat stock...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 March 2025 Russian farmers started planting and fertilizing winter crops which is rather early for this time of the year. Rostov Oblast for example has already planted 5 percent of the planned spring crops area. Moreover, this Oblast set a new record fo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 March 2025 Probably for the first time in recent history the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has announced crop production in Russia including “new territories” (occupied territories of Ukraine). The Ministry reported that during 2024, grain prod...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts this year's total planted area to be higher than the previous year, reaching almost 84 million hectares (Mha), of which 55.8 million are spring crops. The Russian Statistics Agency reported that wheat pr...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 February 2025 During the last week of February, the market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Milling wheat remained bullish pulling up feed wheat and milling rye which is in short supply as well. And it is no wonder as during 2024 rye crop acre...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices are frozen. The export market remains the key driver, and the world is watching several factors including remaining stocks of wheat as well as the status of the w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices froze along with export demand for the latter. Keep in mind that beginning 15 February, the new export quota for grains covers only wheat. Wheat allowed for expor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 February 2025 The market remained bullish. Farmers keep sitting on grains expecting a better price amid rumours that ending stocks are melting away and grain will be in short supply soon. Both in Russia and Kazakhstan, export prices, the key driver on the mark...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2025
USDA made a small reduction in ending stocks of U.S. wheat by 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. The projection for global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 was lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 mill...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 January 2025 The market remained bullish, however, the dynamics and stability varied from region to region. Prices in the Volga Valley appreciated but Central Russia and the Asian part of Russia are still stable. The key factor was the announcement of lower...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 January 2025 The domestic market remained bullish while the export market in dollar terms remained relatively stable. Export duties decreased slightly allowing prices to grow. Most likely the biggest bullish factor is the remaining grain stocks which are mel...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 –23 May 2025 Grain markets finally realized that the new crop is near and bearish adjustments between the old crop and new crop started to become a reality like never before. Only Siberia is still waiting while the rest of the country is watching the export new c...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 –16 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The grain market was relatively stable, however, the gap between the new crop and old crop price indicators is getting wider and wider. The export market is just finishing up the marathon run where everybody knows the winner, the qu...
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...
Wheat Problem Areas
As noted yesterday, global wheat consumption has been growing faster than the expansion in production. Sometimes it takes non-agricultural researchers to look at an issue in a different way. Petroleum engineers at the Colorado School of Mines studied global areas where the loss of sub-surface s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian analysts from IKRAR increased the wheat production forecast in Russia by 1.3 MMT to reach 83.8 MMT. They attribute the upgrade to rains in the wheat belt of Russia during the first 10 days of May. As a result, they also revis...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 April – 2 May 2025 Russian audit, corporate finance, and consultancy company BEFL published a rating of Russia’s largest megafarms which included 75 companies – half the number registered a year ago. This is telling us that large farms are becom...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The spring planting campaign in Russia is in full swing. Fifty-six regions of Russia are reportedly planting spring crops, and this season is showing much better speed than last year. To date, around 10.5 million hectares (Mha) a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that around 90 percent of all winter crops are in good and satisfactory condition. According to Mr. Mishustin, winter crops cover around 20 million ha (Mha). He is expecting that...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Dmitriy Patrushev, the Vice Premier of Russia, announced that during 2025 Russian farmers will plant around 84 million ha (Mha) which is up almost 1 Mha from last season. 20 Mha have already been planted with winter crops. Accordi...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 March – 4 April 2025 Russian wheat, the only de-facto exportable commodity for the moment, is relatively stable but shows the first signs of appreciation. This is happening amid solid demand from exporters and melting stocks. As of 1 March, Russian wheat stocks s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture once again announced revised figures for the 2024 crop including occupied territories of Ukraine. The total crop size showed 129.8 MMT - this is the number the Russian Statistics Agency recently reported. For re...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news remains light but the justification for the day’s declines were expectations for USDA to report expanded corn area and larger wheat stock...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 March 2025 Russian farmers started planting and fertilizing winter crops which is rather early for this time of the year. Rostov Oblast for example has already planted 5 percent of the planned spring crops area. Moreover, this Oblast set a new record fo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 March 2025 Probably for the first time in recent history the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has announced crop production in Russia including “new territories” (occupied territories of Ukraine). The Ministry reported that during 2024, grain prod...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts this year's total planted area to be higher than the previous year, reaching almost 84 million hectares (Mha), of which 55.8 million are spring crops. The Russian Statistics Agency reported that wheat pr...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 February 2025 During the last week of February, the market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Milling wheat remained bullish pulling up feed wheat and milling rye which is in short supply as well. And it is no wonder as during 2024 rye crop acre...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices are frozen. The export market remains the key driver, and the world is watching several factors including remaining stocks of wheat as well as the status of the w...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 February 2025 The market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Corn and barley prices froze along with export demand for the latter. Keep in mind that beginning 15 February, the new export quota for grains covers only wheat. Wheat allowed for expor...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 February 2025 The market remained bullish. Farmers keep sitting on grains expecting a better price amid rumours that ending stocks are melting away and grain will be in short supply soon. Both in Russia and Kazakhstan, export prices, the key driver on the mark...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2025
USDA made a small reduction in ending stocks of U.S. wheat by 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. The projection for global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 was lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 mill...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 – 31 January 2025 The market remained bullish, however, the dynamics and stability varied from region to region. Prices in the Volga Valley appreciated but Central Russia and the Asian part of Russia are still stable. The key factor was the announcement of lower...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 January 2025 The domestic market remained bullish while the export market in dollar terms remained relatively stable. Export duties decreased slightly allowing prices to grow. Most likely the biggest bullish factor is the remaining grain stocks which are mel...