Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 December 2024Russian grain markets remained relatively stable but, in some areas, especially export platform, prices were bearish. Part of the reason behind a bearish trend is the potential decrease of stocks. As of early December, stocks of agricultural companies...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 December 2024Export duties were the key driver followed by forex and increased freight costs for rail deliveries which are the main channel of grain delivery to the ports both from Russian territory and occupied territories of Ukraine. Before, freight was not a majo...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: Soybean meal hit a new contract low at 285.6/ST. Beef, feeders, and soymeal all closed lower today. All three wheats ended the week higher de...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 26 November, Russian farmers produced 132 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 19.3 MMT less than a year ago. This is with the crop harvested from 97.7 percent of the area yielding only 2.82 M/ha versus 3.16/MT a year ago. Grain yields...
Market Commentary: Tariff Tweets Threaten to Upend Typically Slow Pre-Holiday Trade
The CBOT was mixed and mostly lower to start the between-holidays trading season with the soy complex seeing the worst of the selling. Soybeans – and the oilseed complex more broadly – are seeing pressure from excellent conditions in South America as well as the political ramifications of Presi...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18 – 22 November 2024Russian Vice Premier Dmitri Patrushev is confident that Russia will export up to 60 MMT of grains this season. According to Mr. Patrushev, the gross grain production this season will reach 130 MMT in standard weight, of which 83 MMT is wheat. The Vice...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Fall on Export Data
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex finding their way into the red for various reasons. Wheat initially rallied on rising tensions and attacks between Rusia and Ukraine, with Ukraine accusing Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missil...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volumes were muted on Wednesday and other than the KC wheat market and soyoil futures, none of the major ag markets made major technical moves. Ma...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 November 2024Russian Union of Grain producers and exporters announced that winter wheat area for 2025/26 may drop to 15.4 Mha which will be the smallest planted winter crops area since 2018/19. Particularly, wheat area may drop by 0.9 Mha to 16.3 Mha, and after wi...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior Russia or bearishness from favorable weather in South America. Based solely upon that statement, you can probably figure out which markets d...
Market Commentary: Today was Green but Headwinds for the Week
Corn, soymeal, live cattle and lean hogs all traded lower during the morning start but by the end of the day, only lean hogs ended lower. There were modest volumes being traded on Friday for most contracts, except feeder cattle where it was nearly double the five-day average.December soymeal hi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
Market Commentary: Exports, Weather Concerns Push CBOT Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as export demand continues to fuel what looks like the start of a demand-led swing higher in the markets. Tuesday marked the fifth straight business day with a “flash” export sales announcement for corn, with Mexico responsible for essentially all of the de...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on imports of Russian wheat. Grain storage facilities are being filled up to the brim with new crop c...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Fuel 2-Day Corn Rally; Wheat Rises with Russian Prices
CBOT grains and oilseeds seem to be playing “follow the leader” and have recently switched roles. Previously, soybeans were rallying and pulling grain futures grudgingly higher, but that has completely flipped following Monday’s Grain Stocks report. Now, corn and wheat are ris...
Russia’s Grain Shortfall
Today’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report provided the market with a bullish input but there may be another shoe to drop. Russia’s stocks to use ratio for corn and wheat have been dropping for four straight years. Over that timeframe, it is down 64 percent for corn and 48 percent f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. Moreover, appreciation of grains earlier in the month reached its peak at this stage of the game and buyers are very careful right now. Sellers...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls Amid Weak Russian Prices; Soyoil Rises on Exports; Macro Markets Boost Cattle
Markets and traders were broadly enthusiastic following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-bps cut to its target interest rate on Wednesday, but you wouldn’t know that from looking at the grain or oilseed markets. Wheat futures were sharply lower on Thursday amid pressure from French whe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 September 2024 The Russian grain market is finally showing bullish sentiments. Adverse weather in Russia this season concerns many analysts, and they are one after another decreasing their forecasts for overall grain production. Exact numbers are hard to figure...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growing stocks. Even though the 2024 grain crop may be slightly lower than earlier estimates, Russia will have a solid export surplus. Dome...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 December 2024Russian grain markets remained relatively stable but, in some areas, especially export platform, prices were bearish. Part of the reason behind a bearish trend is the potential decrease of stocks. As of early December, stocks of agricultural companies...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 December 2024Export duties were the key driver followed by forex and increased freight costs for rail deliveries which are the main channel of grain delivery to the ports both from Russian territory and occupied territories of Ukraine. Before, freight was not a majo...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: Soybean meal hit a new contract low at 285.6/ST. Beef, feeders, and soymeal all closed lower today. All three wheats ended the week higher de...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of 26 November, Russian farmers produced 132 MMT of grains in bunker weight which is 19.3 MMT less than a year ago. This is with the crop harvested from 97.7 percent of the area yielding only 2.82 M/ha versus 3.16/MT a year ago. Grain yields...
Market Commentary: Tariff Tweets Threaten to Upend Typically Slow Pre-Holiday Trade
The CBOT was mixed and mostly lower to start the between-holidays trading season with the soy complex seeing the worst of the selling. Soybeans – and the oilseed complex more broadly – are seeing pressure from excellent conditions in South America as well as the political ramifications of Presi...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18 – 22 November 2024Russian Vice Premier Dmitri Patrushev is confident that Russia will export up to 60 MMT of grains this season. According to Mr. Patrushev, the gross grain production this season will reach 130 MMT in standard weight, of which 83 MMT is wheat. The Vice...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Fall on Export Data
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with corn, wheat, and the entire soy complex finding their way into the red for various reasons. Wheat initially rallied on rising tensions and attacks between Rusia and Ukraine, with Ukraine accusing Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missil...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Ukraine News
The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t until next week, but the CBOT is starting to feel like traders are taking their vacation time a little early. Trading volumes were muted on Wednesday and other than the KC wheat market and soyoil futures, none of the major ag markets made major technical moves. Ma...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 November 2024Russian Union of Grain producers and exporters announced that winter wheat area for 2025/26 may drop to 15.4 Mha which will be the smallest planted winter crops area since 2018/19. Particularly, wheat area may drop by 0.9 Mha to 16.3 Mha, and after wi...
Market Commentary: Price Action Follows One of Two Factors
The CBOT saw distinctly mixed trade with price action being largely determined by one of two factors: either bullishness from Ukraine’s attack on interior Russia or bearishness from favorable weather in South America. Based solely upon that statement, you can probably figure out which markets d...
Market Commentary: Today was Green but Headwinds for the Week
Corn, soymeal, live cattle and lean hogs all traded lower during the morning start but by the end of the day, only lean hogs ended lower. There were modest volumes being traded on Friday for most contracts, except feeder cattle where it was nearly double the five-day average.December soymeal hi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
Market Commentary: Exports, Weather Concerns Push CBOT Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as export demand continues to fuel what looks like the start of a demand-led swing higher in the markets. Tuesday marked the fifth straight business day with a “flash” export sales announcement for corn, with Mexico responsible for essentially all of the de...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on imports of Russian wheat. Grain storage facilities are being filled up to the brim with new crop c...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Fuel 2-Day Corn Rally; Wheat Rises with Russian Prices
CBOT grains and oilseeds seem to be playing “follow the leader” and have recently switched roles. Previously, soybeans were rallying and pulling grain futures grudgingly higher, but that has completely flipped following Monday’s Grain Stocks report. Now, corn and wheat are ris...
Russia’s Grain Shortfall
Today’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report provided the market with a bullish input but there may be another shoe to drop. Russia’s stocks to use ratio for corn and wheat have been dropping for four straight years. Over that timeframe, it is down 64 percent for corn and 48 percent f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. Moreover, appreciation of grains earlier in the month reached its peak at this stage of the game and buyers are very careful right now. Sellers...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls Amid Weak Russian Prices; Soyoil Rises on Exports; Macro Markets Boost Cattle
Markets and traders were broadly enthusiastic following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-bps cut to its target interest rate on Wednesday, but you wouldn’t know that from looking at the grain or oilseed markets. Wheat futures were sharply lower on Thursday amid pressure from French whe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 September 2024 The Russian grain market is finally showing bullish sentiments. Adverse weather in Russia this season concerns many analysts, and they are one after another decreasing their forecasts for overall grain production. Exact numbers are hard to figure...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 August 2024 Russian grain markets remained relatively stable; however, they are under pressure of a large crop and growing stocks. Even though the 2024 grain crop may be slightly lower than earlier estimates, Russia will have a solid export surplus. Dome...