Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.04/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 August 2025 During the second week of August, the market realized that harvesting produces all the grain the market needs and this caused bearish sentiments in most of Russia’s regions. Some regions like Siberia and Ural are sensitive to the harvesting...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3375/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $4...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and development were highly favorable. That, combined with high corn yield and soybean pod count estimates from various crop tours sent the mark...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government purchased 3.93 MMT of local wheat from this year’s harvest an increase from last year’s 3.43 MMT purchase. The government had originally targeted a very enthusiastic 5.0 MMT. The local wheat ha...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action was mixed as funds covered corn shorts but expanded bearish positions in wheat and, to a lesser extent, the soy complex. Fresh news was light...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.065/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.8/short ton, down $...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 18 August)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to show good development across most of the country. While some areas remain affected by flooding, favorable weather has helped reduce excess moisture in many fields. In the core region, July rainfall exceeded the historical average, leaving c...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Association of German Cooperatives (DRV) raised its forecast for the German grain harvest from 41.7 MMT to 43.0 MMT, up 10 percent from the 2024 crop. Wheat production was increased from 21.6 MMT to 22.4 MMT and corn from 4.5 MMT to 4.6 MMT. Heavy July rains boosted corn yield...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have featured few meaningful changes in the net ag position — the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three class...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 1-7, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 722,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 2 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 340,800 MT were down 49 percent from the previous week and 37 percen...
Market Commentary: Another Day in a Sea of Red
After a three-day rally, the soybean complex drifted lower, wheat continued its bearish decline, and corn miraculously escaped another day of damage. The market now awaits crop tour results, which at their onset appear to be confirming USDA’s view of big yields. Barring a miraculous...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain as Dollar Falls; Soybeans Extend Rally on Acreage and Heat
The CBOT on Wednesday saw grains make a slight recovery and correction from Tuesday’s WASDE-induced selloff while the soybean market extended the bullish trade. Both corn and wheat pushed slightly higher for the day with concerns about heat in the Corn Belt supporting corn trade while whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.9725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4425/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.3/short ton, up $5.4 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 August 2025 The speed of the harvesting campaign was the key price driver. Improved harvesting pace in the Centre and Black Soil regions made most of the grain prices plummet except for the best milling quality wheat. This is understandable as excessive rains...
Market Commentary: King Corn Flexes Dominance; Soybeans Rise on Acreage Data; Cattle Surge
The August WASDE is almost always a market-moving event for at least one commodity, and Tuesday’s report was no different. Tuesday’s trade started off with some trepidation after China increased the import duty on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8 percent, which caused canola futures to cra...
WASDE Soybeans - August 2025
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean production for 2025/26 to 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average farm price for soybean is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean m...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.945/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.05/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3275/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s Agriculture Ministry announced that the planting of wheat and barley will be “severely reduced” due to low water reserves. Barley planting is going to be almost totally stopped. Vegetable growing and drip-...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.2/short ton, up $5 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat and Boosting Production Margins With 6.7 million hectares sown, the 2025/2026 season wheat crop has been planted and it marks one of Argentina’s most promising crops on record. Although some fields were waterlogged, more than 80 percent of the area had water conditions ranging from...
Market Commentary: Momentum is Stalled Pending WASDE
After yesterday’s baseless bounce, today’s trading involved some retracement on a lack of fresh inputs. There was yet another flash corn export sale this morning, but higher volume sent corn futures lower. It was an unforgiving day, and the market is in a holding pattern until USDA&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.055/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $0 fr...
Dicamba Registration Re-Proposed
On 23 July, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that three formulations of the pesticide dicamba would be open to a 30-day comment period to re-register dicamba for use as over-the-top (OTT) use on dicamba-tolerant crops, namely cotton and soybeans. Previously, a federal d...
Market Commentary: A Bounce but Fundamentals Unchanged
Unlike in previous days, commodity futures opened higher today and sustained upward momentum. There was some short covering and some correction from over-sold but it is unlikely the market has found a seasonal bottom. There is good demand, but there is also the potential for record crops. Next...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 25-31, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 737,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 25 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 667,700 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 38 percent from the prior 4-wee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1825/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $3.9 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day Awaiting New Inputs
There were few fundamental inputs, but today’s agricultural futures markets established new contract lows for corn, SRW and HRS. There was a new contract high for feeder cattle. The market has received new private sector crop estimates and next comes crop tours and the August...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.845/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.3/short ton, down $3...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 July – 1 August 2025 The harmonizing of July old crop and new crop pricing is coming to an end. As harvesting continues with a delay, prices are volatile depending on the region. Delayed harvest often causes bullish sentiments in some individual regions but press...
Market Commentary: Pushing Toward New Lows on Bearish Supplies
There was higher volume today trading corn and hogs, and lower volume in the soy complex and SRW. New contract lows were printed for corn, SRW, and HRW. Yesterday’s crop progress report reflected potentially stellar crops and yield estimates from private analysts continue to p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0825/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9075/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, down $0.1...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Sri Lanka’s cereal imports in 2025 are seen increasing by about 10 percent to 1.6 MMT, mainly wheat as the country is not a wheat producer. The first maize crop of 2025 was good and is about 7 percent higher than average &nd...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie Back to Work
It was a contrast of a mostly higher day but with new contract lows for corn and all three wheats. Corn wilted from private forecasts of big yields, and expectations of good crop conditions in contrast with slowed export inspections. It was mostly steady on the first day of a new week wit...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in the core region in 40 years. While the improved soil moisture will be beneficial for corn planting that’s set to begin in about a month...
Market Commentary: Continued Edging Lower on Big Supplies
It was a mixed and quiet close to the market after a week of mostly price declines. There were new contract lows scored by front month SRW and HRS. Soybean traders didn’t know where to take their positions and so they left the September and November contracts both unchanged. Outside marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8925/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $280.5/short ton, up $4.5 from y...
How Will Soybeans’ Uncertain Outlook Affect Other Commodities?
November soybean futures’ recent move below the psychologically important $10.00 threshold has triggered concerns about weakness there affecting other markets. The question of how soybeans could impact other markets is germane because the oilseed is facing larger and more rapid adjustment...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 18-24, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 592,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 17 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 296,700 MT were down 61 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the...
Market Commentary: New Highs and Lows, Mixed Volume and Results
December corn closed higher for a second session in a row, no doubt aided by the daily export sales reported by USDA. By contrast and since its recent high back on 18 July, both the September and November soybean contracts have closed lower each session but one. There was higher vol...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8925/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276/short ton, up $1.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Export Demand Steadies Corn; Soybeans Fall with Midwest Rain
The CBOT showed mixed trends across its major ag markets on Wednesday with corn and KC wheat finding some short covering that stabilized values and led to small gains. A big part of the stability that came to corn futures was from a flood of export interest that has recently entered the market...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9575/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.5/short ton, down $2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 July 2025 During the fourth week of the new 2025/26 season, the export market was still the driving force behind pricing patterns. Harvesting entered into the active phase filling the needs on the market to the brim. As a result, domestic prices plummeted. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.11/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.095/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.5/short ton, down $2.8...
Market Commentary: Weather Sinks Grain Bull Hopes; Cattle Hit All-Time Highs
The theme for this week’s grain markets seems to be that of favorable weather, big crops, and increasingly bearish sentiment. That was certainly the case Tuesday, as corn, soybeans, soymeal, and wheat all sold off amid fund and commercial selling. Several markets/contracts hit new contrac...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr (Future of Egypt) may not be able to buy grain from Ukraine as it could be added to the blacklist. Ukraine says that the company has purchased wheat from Russia that was harvested in Russia occupied ar...
Market Commentary: Weather Overrides Trade Deal; Cattle Hit New Highs on Tight Inventories
The big news for Monday’s ag market trade wasn’t the U.S.-EU trade deal, but rather continued favorable weather in the U.S. Midwest that will boost corn and soybean yield potential to record or near-record levels. The weather has private analysts boosting yield expectations by sever...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.14/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, down $2.3 fr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Export Tax Update The government this week announced a definitive — not temporary — reduction in export taxes for a series of agricultural products. Between January and July 2025, a temporary reduction had been in place. On 1 July, the export tax rates reverted to pr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders continuing to oscillate between slightly bullish and slightly bearish thinking. The past several weeks have featured modest changes in the net ag position (the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three classes of...
Market Commentary: Good Weather Trumps Demand
Markets opened today pretty much where they ended in the overnight and pretty much stayed that way all day, which is to say in the red. And it did so pretty much across the board on lower volume. There was just not any real change in the story of impending big U.S. crops arriving on top of big...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.21/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.6/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday but Friday is Another Day
Today’s trading opened with a head scratcher after USDA reported 135 KMT of U.S. corn sold to China. There isn’t any corn import demand in China, and if there was it probably would not originate from the U.S. It was quickly corrected to be bound to South Korea. Nonethele...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 712,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 761,000 MT were up 76 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2425/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $2.5 fro...
Further Identification of Mispricing in Ag Futures
WPI offers the following analysis as a continuation of last week’s work examining mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. Readers may recall that this work seeks to identify for the major agricultural commodities where along the forward curve current futures have the greatest er...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal News Fails to Excite Ag Markets
The CBOT tried to rally early on Wednesday after traders had the opportunity to react to the U.S.-Japan trade deal, but a lack of details left markets wondering about the true impact on U.S. balance sheets. That meant corn, soybeans, and wheat all settled lower for the day, with favorable Midwe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.6/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 July 2025 The new 2025/26 season export market is the driving force behind pricing patterns asking for more goods at the premium price. The southern federal district enjoyed bullish sentiments, while the rest of the country was waking up to what is going on...
Market Commentary: Weather Premia Withdrawn; Trade Talks Make Progress
CBOT futures saw mixed trade Tuesday with summer row crops pulling back amid a favorable Midwest weather forecast while wheat turned higher on slow sales from Russia. Corn and soybeans saw weaker trade develop overnight after the Crop Conditions report was positive and the weather forecasts con...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.255/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.8/short ton, up $2 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region A BRICS spokesman said that in light of the consolidation of companies in the grain trade, “BRICS countries must cooperate in antitrust policy and antitrust legislation” for the international grain trade. The feeling s...
Market Commentary: Grains and Livestock Take Diverging Paths
Grain and oilseed markets pulled back to start the week after favorable showers fell across the U.S. over the weekend. The moisture revived crop prospects and offered a meaningful buffer ahead of some heat that will build over parts of the Midwest this week. The weather outlook was enough to st...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.26/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.8/short ton, down $4...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Taxes The topic of export taxes continues to spark debate in Argentina, particularly soybean taxes. The return to a 33 percent rate for soybeans has made planting unviable in large parts of the agricultural area. In corn, the increase of 3 percentage points is less impactful, and t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money shifting into a slightly more bearish stance in the ag space as they added 25,490 contacts (37 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week. The more bearish positioning is surprising given the strength in futures that prevail...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3575/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.8/short ton, up $5.3 f...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Green Finish of a Bullish Week
The market was green across the board in grain and oilseed in the overnight and mostly finished that way in the day session except for soyoil, where profit taking prevailed. It seemed like a hot week for soyoil but after today’s session, it turned out to be corn that had the better week.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 494,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 432,900 MT were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up 7 perce...
Market Commentary: Quirky Day in a Quirky Week
It was a somewhat quirky day as grains took their lumps and soyoil supported beans. There was a new contract low in HRW, low volume trading corn and livestock, but high volume in soyoil. After trading 40,000 contracts, December soymeal settled unchanged, and moving in mere fractions, September...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.265/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.5/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Market Commentary: Three-Factor Rally for Soy Complex; Corn Extends Gains
Overnight trade saw short covering and corrective trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat but only the former two markets were able to hold their gains. Soybeans saw a bullish day from the confluence of three factors – the NOPA crush report, fresh “flash” export sales, and Presiden...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.205/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.5/short ton, up $4 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 July 2025 The export market is drawing all the attention and in the southern (export oriented) regions of Russia, demand and hunger for more business surpass supply, thus bringing prices back to previous levels, sometimes even higher. In some regions where ha...
Market Commentary: Corn Reversal Continues; Weather, Conditions Ratings Sink Soybeans
The big move at the CBOT Tuesday was a 1¾-cent gain in December corn futures – which isn’t much but that the development followed Monday’s bullish reversal is. The strength in new crop corn defies much of the fundamental outlook and suggests traders are sensing somethin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s annual inflation level is at 14.4 percent in the latest month, down from 16.5 percent the previous month. Egypt’s target for 65 percent self-sufficiency in wheat in 2025 has been revised by the government...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal while Soy, Wheat Slip Lower
Monday’s trade at the CBOT was interesting with corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallying off fresh contract or selloff lows overnight, but only corn holding onto those gains by the closing bell. For corn futures, the market seemed to be more focused on the USDA’s ending stocks figure...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.07/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.7/short ton, down $1.9 f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting is entering its final stage after a weekly advance of 12.7 percentage points at the national level, now covering 91 percent of the projected 6.7 million hectares. Regional progress of about 20 points was seen in areas previously delayed by surface wa...
European Market Analysis
Regional News President Trump announced 30 percent tariffs on imports from the EU effective 1 August even as the EU and U.S. trade negotiations continue. Western Europe saw heavy and mostly beneficial precipitation last week, but a dry trend is now emerging for the region. Last week...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money surprisingly shifting into a more bullish stance across the ag space, though still retaining a small net short. Funds cut 11,700 contacts (14.5 percent) off their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold relatively neutral posi...
Market Commentary: Bears Resist WASDE Curveballs
U.S. crop growing weather looks near perfect. Even dry parts of Nebraska and northern Illinois have just received good relief rains. The rest of July is cooler and damp, perfect for pollination. The share of the corn crop rated Good/Excellent is 74 percent, and its 66 percent for soybeans. ...
WASDE Soybeans - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for increased ending stocks compared to last month: U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 was raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion on the assumption that demand for soybean oil for biofuel would increase. The U.S. seasonal average farm price of...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.6/short ton, down $1...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 27-July 3, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 567,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were primarily for South Korea (90,000 MT), Japan (70,000 MT), Mexico (55,900 MT), Malaysia (55,000 MT), and the Philippines (54,400 MT) and were partly offset by reductions for the Do...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher Ahead of Tomorrow’s WASDE
Wheat spent the session mostly higher while corn, soybeans, and soymeal bounced around treading lower but eking out gains later in the action. Part of this was position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s July WASDE report by USDA. It will be a bull/bear square off with any surprise to the bulli...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.545/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1375/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.3/short ton, up $2.4 from ye...
WPI 20225/26 Grain Outlook: Supplies Outpace Demand Growth
Heading into the USDA’s July WASDE report on Friday, WPI offers our outlook on the 2025/26 U.S. grain balance sheets and the season-average price. The big theme from this effort is that 2025/26 grain supplies will be ample and markets will have to move lower to stimulate enough demand to...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Break Support on Good Weather; Wheat, Corn Bounce off Lows
Weather is king right now for the grain markets and with no serious threat to the silking corn and pod-setting soybean crops, that meant lower trade at the CBOT. Soybeans bore the brunt of the selling for the day with the favorable weather forecast into early August suggesting the crop will set...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $282.9/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 June – 4 July 2025 During the first week of the new season 2025/26, seasonal price depreciation continued, however, delayed harvesting was helping wheat prices rebound in the south, the Russia’s main export hub. To add fuel to the fire, yields are lower com...
Market Commentary: Corn Hits New Lows while Cattle Hit New Highs
Grains markets came under pressure again on Tuesday with USDA’s positive Crop Conditions report Monday evening reassuring traders and analysts of excellent yield prospects for this year. The report was most bearish corn where ratings hit another five-year seasonal high as the crop is silk...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1425/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.175/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.3/short ton, down...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria reports that the wheat collected in the North/East region since 5 June is at 282,000 MT. The government adds that the wheat received this year is of lower quality due to low rainfall and high temperatures. Yemeni Houthi rebe...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders shifting from a neutral to a more bearish sentiment across the ag space. Funds added 63,000 contacts (360 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold a bearish position of 81,000 contracts short...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Ideal Weather; Cattle Rally Despite Feeder Imports Resuming
Grain markets gapped-lower on the Sunday night opening after a weekend of uneventful and favorable weather that was absent of any significant trade news. The weakness continued into the day session with corn and soybeans turning in the biggest losses for the day as the weather outlook continues...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2075/bushel, down $0.285 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.9/short ton, down...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting now covers 78.2 percent of Argentina’s projected 6.7 million hectares after a weekly advance of 5.5 percentage points. Fieldwork slowed during the second half of June due to excess moisture from persistent rains, leaving progress 2.5 points behind the five-year...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania moved to extend its grain import licensing system for Ukrainian products through the end of 2025. The measure is intended to minimize price and oversupply pressure on Romania’s domestic markets but disrupts the free trade flows arranged in the EU framework earl...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day But a Strong Week, And More Ahead
It was the last trading day of a shorter trading week that provided lots of inputs. It started with the Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports, which changed little but they did confirm expectations. Weather continues to point toward ample crop supplies. President Trump teased there is a trade de...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.37/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $292.2/short ton, up $1.4 fr...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Emerge from Hibernation
Usually, one discusses bears - not bulls - emerging from hibernation, but the somewhat discongruous title of today's report is an accurate image of Wednesday's market activity. The CBOT turned sharply higher at mid-week with corn, the soy complex, wheat, and livestock futures all posting strong...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.64/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.48/bushel, up $0.2075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.8/short ton, up $3.2 from yester...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of grains on the market, prices are bearish. However, the first cuts of wheat showed poor results and encouraged farmers to wait and see. The av...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday’s trade, this meant a focus on five-year highs in corn ratings and an excellent outlook for the crop into mid-July at least, which were t...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.6/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is closing several collection centers for this year’s wheat crop due to a drop in available wheat for purchase. At the end of last week, the total government purchases were at a little over 3.9 MMT against the governme...
Market Commentary: USDA Reports Offer Few Surprises, Weather Dominates Trade Outlook
The USDA’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports dominated the CBOT’s attention on Monday with the Noon ET release of both datasets driving the day’s action. There were relatively few surprises in the report but minor deviations from expectations helped create support in new crop s...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.27/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Aug 25 Soymeal closed at $275.8/short ton, up $0.2...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The Argentine government has officially issued a decree extending the reduction of export taxes for wheat and barley, while restoring previous rates for corn, soybeans, and soybean by-products. Much of the agricultural sector remained hopeful until the last minute, amid rumors...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders leaning mostly neutral the major ag markets last week, with activity across the grains and oilseed complex being rather subdued. Funds added just 1,997 contacts (12.8 percent) to their small net short across the ag space last week...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2475/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $271.1/short ton, up $0.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering
Traders seemed content to take short risk off the table heading into the weekend with USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Monday. Funds in particular are comfortable with positions ahead of these reports and saw little reason to push markets further into oversold territor...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.165/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $270.9/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: More Declines But They Slowed
The bleeding didn’t stop, but it slowed down today. Although corn and soybeans were up in the overnight and opened that way this morning, it didn’t last. It has been a very bearish week, though the declines were much shallower today than in previous days. While soybeans and wheat we...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Weather, Seasonal Factors Imply Short Profit Opportunities
The Market Oilseed markets have certainly seen no lack of volatility over the past several weeks, with the EPA’s surprise, bullish Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) mandates release a little less than two weeks ago, which was followed by the Israel-Iran conflict. That conflict drove...
Market Commentary: Good Weather is Bad for Bulls
The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with favorable weather for the U.S. 2025 spring crops and weaker global grain markets exacting a heavy toll. Notable among the day’s moves were the new contract lows in corn and soymeal and soybeans’ move back below the prices they traded just...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1025/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, down $0.215 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $276/short ton, down $4.5...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 June 2025 Grain markets plummeted to seasonally low price levels which are usually established at the beginning of the season. This was probably the straw that broke the camels back and it is hard to see prices any lower. But on the other hand, the month of...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oil Fall on Risk-off Trade after Middle East Ceasefire
The biggest drive of the CBOT’s Tuesday trade had little to do with grain markets themselves and, rather, was primarily focused on risk and positioning dynamics following the apparent Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement. While both sides have apparently agreed to some sort of ceasefire deal,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.52/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4675/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $280.5/short ton, down $1.9...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan’s wheat reserves are reportedly at 10 month consumption with barley supply at 8 months consumption. Jordan is increasing its grain storage capacity to a level that will allow as much as 16 months of wheat supply. Egyp...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Weather Not War Tanks the Market
Ags were mostly bearish on weather and an expected improving Crop Progress report, though the latter did not turn out that way. Equities opened partly in the red but quickly shifted green and stayed that way even after Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq. Save for hogs and Fe...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1925/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.695/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5875/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $282.4/short ton, down $1...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting advanced by 21.8 percentage points last week and now covers 60.3 percent of the projected 6.7 Mha for the 2025/26 season. This pace is above the historical average but remains 5 percentage points behind last year’s progress. In the core product...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather patterns remain unfavorable for EU and UK summer crop development with above-average temperatures forecast for the next 15 days. The hot temperatures will combine with below-normal rainfall to offer significant chances at crop stress heading into mid-July. The la...
Market Commentary: A Day and a Week of Surprises
There isn’t always a common theme across markets. Sometimes a session starts amid diverse influences. Sometimes, shorts or longs will dominate an open, then be tested by participants with different ideas. Each jockeying to have their way. Today’s trading opened bearishly for major g...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.6775/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.68/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $284.1/short ton, down $...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3275/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.7375/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Wheat and War Rattle Ahead of Holiday
Corn and soybeans closed lower overnight and danced that way this morning but once again could not resist the pull of wheat higher. The wheat market doubled down on yesterday’s weather premium mood as the Southern Plains remain overly wet. The Fed walked back some of its previous alarm be...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, up $0.2525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7475/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 June 2025 The grains market saw no major changes especially with two days of holidays when the country celebrated Russia day. The new crop smell is in the air with annexed Crimea already harvesting. This season the crop in Crimea will be poor because the irri...
Market Commentary: Grain Consolidation Begins while Cattle Correction Continues
With the notable exception of soyoil, the CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with funds covering shorts ahead of the midweek holiday amid a few bullish headlines. Wheat was the upside leader as harvest delays and quality concerns mount for the Southern Plains HRW crop amid persistent rains. Soyb...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.74/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $285.1/short ton, up $1.4 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkish officials announced that the cost of vessels passing through the Bosphorus/Dardanelles will increase by 15 percent on 1 July. The new tariff is set at $5.83 per MT and will affect all grain/oilseed items from the Black Sea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.04/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.2/short ton, up $1.3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 August 2025 During the second week of August, the market realized that harvesting produces all the grain the market needs and this caused bearish sentiments in most of Russia’s regions. Some regions like Siberia and Ural are sensitive to the harvesting...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3375/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $4...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and development were highly favorable. That, combined with high corn yield and soybean pod count estimates from various crop tours sent the mark...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government purchased 3.93 MMT of local wheat from this year’s harvest an increase from last year’s 3.43 MMT purchase. The government had originally targeted a very enthusiastic 5.0 MMT. The local wheat ha...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action was mixed as funds covered corn shorts but expanded bearish positions in wheat and, to a lesser extent, the soy complex. Fresh news was light...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.065/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0275/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.8/short ton, down $...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 18 August)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to show good development across most of the country. While some areas remain affected by flooding, favorable weather has helped reduce excess moisture in many fields. In the core region, July rainfall exceeded the historical average, leaving c...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Association of German Cooperatives (DRV) raised its forecast for the German grain harvest from 41.7 MMT to 43.0 MMT, up 10 percent from the 2024 crop. Wheat production was increased from 21.6 MMT to 22.4 MMT and corn from 4.5 MMT to 4.6 MMT. Heavy July rains boosted corn yield...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have featured few meaningful changes in the net ag position — the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three class...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 1-7, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 722,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 2 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 340,800 MT were down 49 percent from the previous week and 37 percen...
Market Commentary: Another Day in a Sea of Red
After a three-day rally, the soybean complex drifted lower, wheat continued its bearish decline, and corn miraculously escaped another day of damage. The market now awaits crop tour results, which at their onset appear to be confirming USDA’s view of big yields. Barring a miraculous...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain as Dollar Falls; Soybeans Extend Rally on Acreage and Heat
The CBOT on Wednesday saw grains make a slight recovery and correction from Tuesday’s WASDE-induced selloff while the soybean market extended the bullish trade. Both corn and wheat pushed slightly higher for the day with concerns about heat in the Corn Belt supporting corn trade while whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.9725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4425/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $297.3/short ton, up $5.4 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 August 2025 The speed of the harvesting campaign was the key price driver. Improved harvesting pace in the Centre and Black Soil regions made most of the grain prices plummet except for the best milling quality wheat. This is understandable as excessive rains...
Market Commentary: King Corn Flexes Dominance; Soybeans Rise on Acreage Data; Cattle Surge
The August WASDE is almost always a market-moving event for at least one commodity, and Tuesday’s report was no different. Tuesday’s trade started off with some trepidation after China increased the import duty on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8 percent, which caused canola futures to cra...
WASDE Soybeans - August 2025
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean production for 2025/26 to 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average farm price for soybean is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean m...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $3.945/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.05/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3275/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq’s Agriculture Ministry announced that the planting of wheat and barley will be “severely reduced” due to low water reserves. Barley planting is going to be almost totally stopped. Vegetable growing and drip-...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0775/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.2/short ton, up $5 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat and Boosting Production Margins With 6.7 million hectares sown, the 2025/2026 season wheat crop has been planted and it marks one of Argentina’s most promising crops on record. Although some fields were waterlogged, more than 80 percent of the area had water conditions ranging from...
Market Commentary: Momentum is Stalled Pending WASDE
After yesterday’s baseless bounce, today’s trading involved some retracement on a lack of fresh inputs. There was yet another flash corn export sale this morning, but higher volume sent corn futures lower. It was an unforgiving day, and the market is in a holding pattern until USDA&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.055/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.145/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $0 fr...
Dicamba Registration Re-Proposed
On 23 July, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that three formulations of the pesticide dicamba would be open to a 30-day comment period to re-register dicamba for use as over-the-top (OTT) use on dicamba-tolerant crops, namely cotton and soybeans. Previously, a federal d...
Market Commentary: A Bounce but Fundamentals Unchanged
Unlike in previous days, commodity futures opened higher today and sustained upward momentum. There was some short covering and some correction from over-sold but it is unlikely the market has found a seasonal bottom. There is good demand, but there is also the potential for record crops. Next...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 25-31, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 737,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 25 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 667,700 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 38 percent from the prior 4-wee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1825/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.2/short ton, up $3.9 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day Awaiting New Inputs
There were few fundamental inputs, but today’s agricultural futures markets established new contract lows for corn, SRW and HRS. There was a new contract high for feeder cattle. The market has received new private sector crop estimates and next comes crop tours and the August...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.845/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.3/short ton, down $3...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 July – 1 August 2025 The harmonizing of July old crop and new crop pricing is coming to an end. As harvesting continues with a delay, prices are volatile depending on the region. Delayed harvest often causes bullish sentiments in some individual regions but press...
Market Commentary: Pushing Toward New Lows on Bearish Supplies
There was higher volume today trading corn and hogs, and lower volume in the soy complex and SRW. New contract lows were printed for corn, SRW, and HRW. Yesterday’s crop progress report reflected potentially stellar crops and yield estimates from private analysts continue to p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.0825/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9075/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, down $0.1...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Sri Lanka’s cereal imports in 2025 are seen increasing by about 10 percent to 1.6 MMT, mainly wheat as the country is not a wheat producer. The first maize crop of 2025 was good and is about 7 percent higher than average &nd...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Steady Eddie Back to Work
It was a contrast of a mostly higher day but with new contract lows for corn and all three wheats. Corn wilted from private forecasts of big yields, and expectations of good crop conditions in contrast with slowed export inspections. It was mostly steady on the first day of a new week wit...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in the core region in 40 years. While the improved soil moisture will be beneficial for corn planting that’s set to begin in about a month...
Market Commentary: Continued Edging Lower on Big Supplies
It was a mixed and quiet close to the market after a week of mostly price declines. There were new contract lows scored by front month SRW and HRS. Soybean traders didn’t know where to take their positions and so they left the September and November contracts both unchanged. Outside marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8925/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $280.5/short ton, up $4.5 from y...
How Will Soybeans’ Uncertain Outlook Affect Other Commodities?
November soybean futures’ recent move below the psychologically important $10.00 threshold has triggered concerns about weakness there affecting other markets. The question of how soybeans could impact other markets is germane because the oilseed is facing larger and more rapid adjustment...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 18-24, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 592,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 17 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 296,700 MT were down 61 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the...
Market Commentary: New Highs and Lows, Mixed Volume and Results
December corn closed higher for a second session in a row, no doubt aided by the daily export sales reported by USDA. By contrast and since its recent high back on 18 July, both the September and November soybean contracts have closed lower each session but one. There was higher vol...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8925/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276/short ton, up $1.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Export Demand Steadies Corn; Soybeans Fall with Midwest Rain
The CBOT showed mixed trends across its major ag markets on Wednesday with corn and KC wheat finding some short covering that stabilized values and led to small gains. A big part of the stability that came to corn futures was from a flood of export interest that has recently entered the market...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9575/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.5/short ton, down $2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 July 2025 During the fourth week of the new 2025/26 season, the export market was still the driving force behind pricing patterns. Harvesting entered into the active phase filling the needs on the market to the brim. As a result, domestic prices plummeted. T...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.11/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.095/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.5/short ton, down $2.8...
Market Commentary: Weather Sinks Grain Bull Hopes; Cattle Hit All-Time Highs
The theme for this week’s grain markets seems to be that of favorable weather, big crops, and increasingly bearish sentiment. That was certainly the case Tuesday, as corn, soybeans, soymeal, and wheat all sold off amid fund and commercial selling. Several markets/contracts hit new contrac...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr (Future of Egypt) may not be able to buy grain from Ukraine as it could be added to the blacklist. Ukraine says that the company has purchased wheat from Russia that was harvested in Russia occupied ar...
Market Commentary: Weather Overrides Trade Deal; Cattle Hit New Highs on Tight Inventories
The big news for Monday’s ag market trade wasn’t the U.S.-EU trade deal, but rather continued favorable weather in the U.S. Midwest that will boost corn and soybean yield potential to record or near-record levels. The weather has private analysts boosting yield expectations by sever...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.14/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, down $2.3 fr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Export Tax Update The government this week announced a definitive — not temporary — reduction in export taxes for a series of agricultural products. Between January and July 2025, a temporary reduction had been in place. On 1 July, the export tax rates reverted to pr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders continuing to oscillate between slightly bullish and slightly bearish thinking. The past several weeks have featured modest changes in the net ag position (the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three classes of...
Market Commentary: Good Weather Trumps Demand
Markets opened today pretty much where they ended in the overnight and pretty much stayed that way all day, which is to say in the red. And it did so pretty much across the board on lower volume. There was just not any real change in the story of impending big U.S. crops arriving on top of big...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.21/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.6/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday but Friday is Another Day
Today’s trading opened with a head scratcher after USDA reported 135 KMT of U.S. corn sold to China. There isn’t any corn import demand in China, and if there was it probably would not originate from the U.S. It was quickly corrected to be bound to South Korea. Nonethele...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 712,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 761,000 MT were up 76 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2425/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $2.5 fro...
Further Identification of Mispricing in Ag Futures
WPI offers the following analysis as a continuation of last week’s work examining mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. Readers may recall that this work seeks to identify for the major agricultural commodities where along the forward curve current futures have the greatest er...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal News Fails to Excite Ag Markets
The CBOT tried to rally early on Wednesday after traders had the opportunity to react to the U.S.-Japan trade deal, but a lack of details left markets wondering about the true impact on U.S. balance sheets. That meant corn, soybeans, and wheat all settled lower for the day, with favorable Midwe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.6/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 July 2025 The new 2025/26 season export market is the driving force behind pricing patterns asking for more goods at the premium price. The southern federal district enjoyed bullish sentiments, while the rest of the country was waking up to what is going on...
Market Commentary: Weather Premia Withdrawn; Trade Talks Make Progress
CBOT futures saw mixed trade Tuesday with summer row crops pulling back amid a favorable Midwest weather forecast while wheat turned higher on slow sales from Russia. Corn and soybeans saw weaker trade develop overnight after the Crop Conditions report was positive and the weather forecasts con...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.255/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.8/short ton, up $2 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region A BRICS spokesman said that in light of the consolidation of companies in the grain trade, “BRICS countries must cooperate in antitrust policy and antitrust legislation” for the international grain trade. The feeling s...
Market Commentary: Grains and Livestock Take Diverging Paths
Grain and oilseed markets pulled back to start the week after favorable showers fell across the U.S. over the weekend. The moisture revived crop prospects and offered a meaningful buffer ahead of some heat that will build over parts of the Midwest this week. The weather outlook was enough to st...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.26/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.8/short ton, down $4...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Taxes The topic of export taxes continues to spark debate in Argentina, particularly soybean taxes. The return to a 33 percent rate for soybeans has made planting unviable in large parts of the agricultural area. In corn, the increase of 3 percentage points is less impactful, and t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money shifting into a slightly more bearish stance in the ag space as they added 25,490 contacts (37 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week. The more bearish positioning is surprising given the strength in futures that prevail...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4625/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3575/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $288.8/short ton, up $5.3 f...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Green Finish of a Bullish Week
The market was green across the board in grain and oilseed in the overnight and mostly finished that way in the day session except for soyoil, where profit taking prevailed. It seemed like a hot week for soyoil but after today’s session, it turned out to be corn that had the better week.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 494,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 432,900 MT were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up 7 perce...
Market Commentary: Quirky Day in a Quirky Week
It was a somewhat quirky day as grains took their lumps and soyoil supported beans. There was a new contract low in HRW, low volume trading corn and livestock, but high volume in soyoil. After trading 40,000 contracts, December soymeal settled unchanged, and moving in mere fractions, September...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.265/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.5/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Market Commentary: Three-Factor Rally for Soy Complex; Corn Extends Gains
Overnight trade saw short covering and corrective trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat but only the former two markets were able to hold their gains. Soybeans saw a bullish day from the confluence of three factors – the NOPA crush report, fresh “flash” export sales, and Presiden...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.205/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.5/short ton, up $4 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 July 2025 The export market is drawing all the attention and in the southern (export oriented) regions of Russia, demand and hunger for more business surpass supply, thus bringing prices back to previous levels, sometimes even higher. In some regions where ha...
Market Commentary: Corn Reversal Continues; Weather, Conditions Ratings Sink Soybeans
The big move at the CBOT Tuesday was a 1¾-cent gain in December corn futures – which isn’t much but that the development followed Monday’s bullish reversal is. The strength in new crop corn defies much of the fundamental outlook and suggests traders are sensing somethin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s annual inflation level is at 14.4 percent in the latest month, down from 16.5 percent the previous month. Egypt’s target for 65 percent self-sufficiency in wheat in 2025 has been revised by the government...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal while Soy, Wheat Slip Lower
Monday’s trade at the CBOT was interesting with corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallying off fresh contract or selloff lows overnight, but only corn holding onto those gains by the closing bell. For corn futures, the market seemed to be more focused on the USDA’s ending stocks figure...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.07/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281.7/short ton, down $1.9 f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting is entering its final stage after a weekly advance of 12.7 percentage points at the national level, now covering 91 percent of the projected 6.7 million hectares. Regional progress of about 20 points was seen in areas previously delayed by surface wa...
European Market Analysis
Regional News President Trump announced 30 percent tariffs on imports from the EU effective 1 August even as the EU and U.S. trade negotiations continue. Western Europe saw heavy and mostly beneficial precipitation last week, but a dry trend is now emerging for the region. Last week...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money surprisingly shifting into a more bullish stance across the ag space, though still retaining a small net short. Funds cut 11,700 contacts (14.5 percent) off their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold relatively neutral posi...
Market Commentary: Bears Resist WASDE Curveballs
U.S. crop growing weather looks near perfect. Even dry parts of Nebraska and northern Illinois have just received good relief rains. The rest of July is cooler and damp, perfect for pollination. The share of the corn crop rated Good/Excellent is 74 percent, and its 66 percent for soybeans. ...
WASDE Soybeans - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for increased ending stocks compared to last month: U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 was raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion on the assumption that demand for soybean oil for biofuel would increase. The U.S. seasonal average farm price of...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1225/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $283.6/short ton, down $1...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 27-July 3, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 567,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were primarily for South Korea (90,000 MT), Japan (70,000 MT), Mexico (55,900 MT), Malaysia (55,000 MT), and the Philippines (54,400 MT) and were partly offset by reductions for the Do...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher Ahead of Tomorrow’s WASDE
Wheat spent the session mostly higher while corn, soybeans, and soymeal bounced around treading lower but eking out gains later in the action. Part of this was position squaring ahead of tomorrow’s July WASDE report by USDA. It will be a bull/bear square off with any surprise to the bulli...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.545/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1375/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.3/short ton, up $2.4 from ye...
WPI 20225/26 Grain Outlook: Supplies Outpace Demand Growth
Heading into the USDA’s July WASDE report on Friday, WPI offers our outlook on the 2025/26 U.S. grain balance sheets and the season-average price. The big theme from this effort is that 2025/26 grain supplies will be ample and markets will have to move lower to stimulate enough demand to...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Break Support on Good Weather; Wheat, Corn Bounce off Lows
Weather is king right now for the grain markets and with no serious threat to the silking corn and pod-setting soybean crops, that meant lower trade at the CBOT. Soybeans bore the brunt of the selling for the day with the favorable weather forecast into early August suggesting the crop will set...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $282.9/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 June – 4 July 2025 During the first week of the new season 2025/26, seasonal price depreciation continued, however, delayed harvesting was helping wheat prices rebound in the south, the Russia’s main export hub. To add fuel to the fire, yields are lower com...
Market Commentary: Corn Hits New Lows while Cattle Hit New Highs
Grains markets came under pressure again on Tuesday with USDA’s positive Crop Conditions report Monday evening reassuring traders and analysts of excellent yield prospects for this year. The report was most bearish corn where ratings hit another five-year seasonal high as the crop is silk...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1425/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.175/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $284.3/short ton, down...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria reports that the wheat collected in the North/East region since 5 June is at 282,000 MT. The government adds that the wheat received this year is of lower quality due to low rainfall and high temperatures. Yemeni Houthi rebe...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders shifting from a neutral to a more bearish sentiment across the ag space. Funds added 63,000 contacts (360 percent) to their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold a bearish position of 81,000 contracts short...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Ideal Weather; Cattle Rally Despite Feeder Imports Resuming
Grain markets gapped-lower on the Sunday night opening after a weekend of uneventful and favorable weather that was absent of any significant trade news. The weakness continued into the day session with corn and soybeans turning in the biggest losses for the day as the weather outlook continues...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2075/bushel, down $0.285 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.9/short ton, down...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting now covers 78.2 percent of Argentina’s projected 6.7 million hectares after a weekly advance of 5.5 percentage points. Fieldwork slowed during the second half of June due to excess moisture from persistent rains, leaving progress 2.5 points behind the five-year...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania moved to extend its grain import licensing system for Ukrainian products through the end of 2025. The measure is intended to minimize price and oversupply pressure on Romania’s domestic markets but disrupts the free trade flows arranged in the EU framework earl...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day But a Strong Week, And More Ahead
It was the last trading day of a shorter trading week that provided lots of inputs. It started with the Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports, which changed little but they did confirm expectations. Weather continues to point toward ample crop supplies. President Trump teased there is a trade de...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.37/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $292.2/short ton, up $1.4 fr...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Emerge from Hibernation
Usually, one discusses bears - not bulls - emerging from hibernation, but the somewhat discongruous title of today's report is an accurate image of Wednesday's market activity. The CBOT turned sharply higher at mid-week with corn, the soy complex, wheat, and livestock futures all posting strong...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.64/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.48/bushel, up $0.2075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.8/short ton, up $3.2 from yester...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of grains on the market, prices are bearish. However, the first cuts of wheat showed poor results and encouraged farmers to wait and see. The av...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday’s trade, this meant a focus on five-year highs in corn ratings and an excellent outlook for the crop into mid-July at least, which were t...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.6/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is closing several collection centers for this year’s wheat crop due to a drop in available wheat for purchase. At the end of last week, the total government purchases were at a little over 3.9 MMT against the governme...
Market Commentary: USDA Reports Offer Few Surprises, Weather Dominates Trade Outlook
The USDA’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports dominated the CBOT’s attention on Monday with the Noon ET release of both datasets driving the day’s action. There were relatively few surprises in the report but minor deviations from expectations helped create support in new crop s...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.27/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Aug 25 Soymeal closed at $275.8/short ton, up $0.2...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The Argentine government has officially issued a decree extending the reduction of export taxes for wheat and barley, while restoring previous rates for corn, soybeans, and soybean by-products. Much of the agricultural sector remained hopeful until the last minute, amid rumors...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders leaning mostly neutral the major ag markets last week, with activity across the grains and oilseed complex being rather subdued. Funds added just 1,997 contacts (12.8 percent) to their small net short across the ag space last week...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2475/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $271.1/short ton, up $0.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering
Traders seemed content to take short risk off the table heading into the weekend with USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Monday. Funds in particular are comfortable with positions ahead of these reports and saw little reason to push markets further into oversold territor...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.165/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $270.9/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: More Declines But They Slowed
The bleeding didn’t stop, but it slowed down today. Although corn and soybeans were up in the overnight and opened that way this morning, it didn’t last. It has been a very bearish week, though the declines were much shallower today than in previous days. While soybeans and wheat we...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Weather, Seasonal Factors Imply Short Profit Opportunities
The Market Oilseed markets have certainly seen no lack of volatility over the past several weeks, with the EPA’s surprise, bullish Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) mandates release a little less than two weeks ago, which was followed by the Israel-Iran conflict. That conflict drove...
Market Commentary: Good Weather is Bad for Bulls
The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with favorable weather for the U.S. 2025 spring crops and weaker global grain markets exacting a heavy toll. Notable among the day’s moves were the new contract lows in corn and soymeal and soybeans’ move back below the prices they traded just...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1025/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, down $0.215 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $276/short ton, down $4.5...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 June 2025 Grain markets plummeted to seasonally low price levels which are usually established at the beginning of the season. This was probably the straw that broke the camels back and it is hard to see prices any lower. But on the other hand, the month of...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oil Fall on Risk-off Trade after Middle East Ceasefire
The biggest drive of the CBOT’s Tuesday trade had little to do with grain markets themselves and, rather, was primarily focused on risk and positioning dynamics following the apparent Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement. While both sides have apparently agreed to some sort of ceasefire deal,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.52/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4675/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $280.5/short ton, down $1.9...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan’s wheat reserves are reportedly at 10 month consumption with barley supply at 8 months consumption. Jordan is increasing its grain storage capacity to a level that will allow as much as 16 months of wheat supply. Egyp...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Weather Not War Tanks the Market
Ags were mostly bearish on weather and an expected improving Crop Progress report, though the latter did not turn out that way. Equities opened partly in the red but quickly shifted green and stayed that way even after Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq. Save for hogs and Fe...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1925/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.695/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5875/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $282.4/short ton, down $1...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting advanced by 21.8 percentage points last week and now covers 60.3 percent of the projected 6.7 Mha for the 2025/26 season. This pace is above the historical average but remains 5 percentage points behind last year’s progress. In the core product...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather patterns remain unfavorable for EU and UK summer crop development with above-average temperatures forecast for the next 15 days. The hot temperatures will combine with below-normal rainfall to offer significant chances at crop stress heading into mid-July. The la...
Market Commentary: A Day and a Week of Surprises
There isn’t always a common theme across markets. Sometimes a session starts amid diverse influences. Sometimes, shorts or longs will dominate an open, then be tested by participants with different ideas. Each jockeying to have their way. Today’s trading opened bearishly for major g...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.6775/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.68/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $284.1/short ton, down $...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3275/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.7375/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Wheat and War Rattle Ahead of Holiday
Corn and soybeans closed lower overnight and danced that way this morning but once again could not resist the pull of wheat higher. The wheat market doubled down on yesterday’s weather premium mood as the Southern Plains remain overly wet. The Fed walked back some of its previous alarm be...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, up $0.2525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7475/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9 – 13 June 2025 The grains market saw no major changes especially with two days of holidays when the country celebrated Russia day. The new crop smell is in the air with annexed Crimea already harvesting. This season the crop in Crimea will be poor because the irri...
Market Commentary: Grain Consolidation Begins while Cattle Correction Continues
With the notable exception of soyoil, the CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with funds covering shorts ahead of the midweek holiday amid a few bullish headlines. Wheat was the upside leader as harvest delays and quality concerns mount for the Southern Plains HRW crop amid persistent rains. Soyb...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.74/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $285.1/short ton, up $1.4 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkish officials announced that the cost of vessels passing through the Bosphorus/Dardanelles will increase by 15 percent on 1 July. The new tariff is set at $5.83 per MT and will affect all grain/oilseed items from the Black Sea...