World Perspectives

Recent Black Sea Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 March 2024 The Russian domestic grain market saw depreciation of milling wheat and a slight depreciation of feed wheat, while feed corn also started to appreciate - most probably because of softer export duties. For the upcoming week, exports of feed corn from...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 March 2024 By Matt Herrington The Baltic Dry Indexes strengthened earlier this week, but those gains faded by Thursday afternoon and markets turned mixed for the week. Capesize markets continue to struggle as they wait for Chinese demand to increase while Panamax and...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 March 2024 By Matt Herrington The Baltic Dry Indexes strengthened earlier this week, but those gains faded by Thursday afternoon and markets turned mixed for the week. Capesize markets continue to struggle as they wait for Chinese demand to increase while Panamax and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on EU Tariffs; Soy, Corn Drift Lower Before Stocks, Acres Reports

The wheat market was the surprising upside leader for the day with Matif Paris futures posting large gains after sources said the EU Commission is considering applying a €95/MT tariff on Russian wheat imports. That strength spilled over into the U.S. markets, though U.S. wheat exports are...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish in the south and Volga valley. However, export prices did not react immediately despite a decreased export duty and weaker RUB. In fact, a weaker RUB is better for Russian grain exports which are at hi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat

When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February.  The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE

The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: South American Rains, Export Competition Push CBOT Lower

The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with wheat leading the way on new contract lows in Paris wheat and aggressive competition from Ukraine and Russia on the export market. CBOT wheat also scored new contract lows as traders again piled into short positions on the emerging technical weakness. Corn...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Next Week Won’t Be Boring as Wheat, Corn Pull Back and Soybeans Rise

The CBOT was mixed to end the week and start the month of March with livestock futures extending their rallies amid strong fundamentals. Grain trade, however, was less decisive with wheat futures dropping sharply lower amid greater competition from Ukraine and a bearish breakdown in technical c...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the trick in the future unless there are major developments with the Russian domestic currency market or export duties. The government continues tax...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ukraine's Limited Choices

Much like U.S. farmers, Ukrainian producers prefer to plant the most profitable crops. This is especially true when considering Ukraine’s farmers are reportedly losing $50/MT on corn. The preference is to grow soybeans, and output of the oilseed increased nearly 27 percent in 2023. Howeve...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bearish Long-Term Projections, Outlook Expectations Sink Grain Markets

The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with USDA issuing a bearish long-term outlook late Tuesday and traders looking for bearish numbers from the agency later this week. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will be in Washington, D.C. this Thursday and Friday and will offer the agency’s fir...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It’s not clear why the government would continue raising export duties in a bearish export market. The case with the feed barley duty make...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 January 2024 The grain market could not withstand the pressure from stocks which remain high at this time of year. The export market has been driving this market for a while and intervention purchases did not save Russian farmers from the global bear. Moreover...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 January 2024 For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin mentioned grains grown and harvested from occupied territories. During a recent press conference, he mentioned that during 2023 Russia produced 150 MMT in bunker weight and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 January 2024 After the January holidays, the Russian market is being revised step-by-step. The volume of trade is not so impressive but against all odds and large stocks the market saw some bullish sentiments especially with rye and peas. Peas dramatically appr...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 March 2024 The Russian domestic grain market saw depreciation of milling wheat and a slight depreciation of feed wheat, while feed corn also started to appreciate - most probably because of softer export duties. For the upcoming week, exports of feed corn from...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 March 2024 By Matt Herrington The Baltic Dry Indexes strengthened earlier this week, but those gains faded by Thursday afternoon and markets turned mixed for the week. Capesize markets continue to struggle as they wait for Chinese demand to increase while Panamax and...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 March 2024 By Matt Herrington The Baltic Dry Indexes strengthened earlier this week, but those gains faded by Thursday afternoon and markets turned mixed for the week. Capesize markets continue to struggle as they wait for Chinese demand to increase while Panamax and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on EU Tariffs; Soy, Corn Drift Lower Before Stocks, Acres Reports

The wheat market was the surprising upside leader for the day with Matif Paris futures posting large gains after sources said the EU Commission is considering applying a €95/MT tariff on Russian wheat imports. That strength spilled over into the U.S. markets, though U.S. wheat exports are...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish in the south and Volga valley. However, export prices did not react immediately despite a decreased export duty and weaker RUB. In fact, a weaker RUB is better for Russian grain exports which are at hi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat

When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia’s number one exportable commodity, at relatively low levels. The government realized that some tenders were lost to Romania, and even Ukra...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February.  The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE

The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: South American Rains, Export Competition Push CBOT Lower

The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with wheat leading the way on new contract lows in Paris wheat and aggressive competition from Ukraine and Russia on the export market. CBOT wheat also scored new contract lows as traders again piled into short positions on the emerging technical weakness. Corn...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Next Week Won’t Be Boring as Wheat, Corn Pull Back and Soybeans Rise

The CBOT was mixed to end the week and start the month of March with livestock futures extending their rallies amid strong fundamentals. Grain trade, however, was less decisive with wheat futures dropping sharply lower amid greater competition from Ukraine and a bearish breakdown in technical c...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the trick in the future unless there are major developments with the Russian domestic currency market or export duties. The government continues tax...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ukraine's Limited Choices

Much like U.S. farmers, Ukrainian producers prefer to plant the most profitable crops. This is especially true when considering Ukraine’s farmers are reportedly losing $50/MT on corn. The preference is to grow soybeans, and output of the oilseed increased nearly 27 percent in 2023. Howeve...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bearish Long-Term Projections, Outlook Expectations Sink Grain Markets

The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with USDA issuing a bearish long-term outlook late Tuesday and traders looking for bearish numbers from the agency later this week. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will be in Washington, D.C. this Thursday and Friday and will offer the agency’s fir...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It’s not clear why the government would continue raising export duties in a bearish export market. The case with the feed barley duty make...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 January 2024 The grain market could not withstand the pressure from stocks which remain high at this time of year. The export market has been driving this market for a while and intervention purchases did not save Russian farmers from the global bear. Moreover...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 January 2024 For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin mentioned grains grown and harvested from occupied territories. During a recent press conference, he mentioned that during 2023 Russia produced 150 MMT in bunker weight and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 January 2024 After the January holidays, the Russian market is being revised step-by-step. The volume of trade is not so impressive but against all odds and large stocks the market saw some bullish sentiments especially with rye and peas. Peas dramatically appr...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...

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