U.S. to Temporarily Suspend TRQs on Over-Quota Tariffs on Beef
The Trump Administration is planning a suspension of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means to address high beef prices in the U.S. U.S. cattle and beef prices have increased based on exceptionally strong consumer demand, the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75...
Policy Potpourri
Tax Policy Teed Up The debate over taxes on billionaires is heating up a larger fight over tax policy for the next U.S. Congress. This is good news because a fight solely over whether the wealthy are evil overlooks many larger issues plaguing the system. The journalist Josh Barro says that ever...
Solid Jobs Report, but the Devil is in the Details
Nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 in April, beating the consensus expectation for a gain of 65,000. Payroll gains for February and March were revised down by a combined 16,000, resulting in a net gain of 99,000, including revisions. The largest increases in April were health care and social a...
Dressed Carcass Politicians
Gutless politicians are an unsurprising feature, but are nonetheless disappointing. Their constituents often do not care why beef prices are high; they just want them lowered. And if there is no easy solution, then the politician’s goal is to deflect the criticism toward anyone else, whet...
House MAHA Hearing on State Laws in Energy and Commerce Committee
The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health held a hearing on legislative proposals concerning food regulation and oversight. The hearing was focused on a wide range of bills, in keeping with the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda, ranging from anti–plant-based dairy produc...
China Market Analysis
Decline of China Ag Import Market The media has focused on China’s self-sufficiency effort in agriculture and its implications. In a largely political statement, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Congress that the Trump Administration wants to broaden the agricultural imports...
Ag and Trade Paradigm Shifts
The Middle East is said to be undergoing a transformation as economic priorities transcend security concerns. This is evidenced by diversification away from oil and the UAE’s departure from OPEC. Meanwhile, the Palestine issue has been deprioritized, and Iran has emerged as more destabili...
E15 Plans: House Vote and Addition to Farm Bill Package for Senate
All eyes are shifting to the Senate following the House passage of a farm bill last Thursday. Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Arkansas) is targeting the end of May or early June for a bill markup. According to Boozman, the House “going ahead and passing something was re...
GDP at Modest 2 Percent Growth
Real GDP grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2026, slightly below the consensus expectation of 2.3 percent but above the 0.5 percent growth in Q4 2025. The GDP number matches the average annualized pace of growth since the peak back in late 2007, right before the Financial P...
House Ag Appropriations Bill: Moving to Full Committee This Week
Congress is moving forward with its FY 2027 spending bills, while also still working to address FY 2026 funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which is still in a shutdown. The House Agriculture-FDA Appropriations Subcommittee marked up and passed its FY 2027 bill. The House bill prov...
China Market Analysis
The overarching concern for China is that the rising cost of energy will reduce global trade demand at the same time that countries are becoming more protectionist. Trump Visit to China President Trump’s visit to China is in just over two weeks, though some question whether the trip...
Farm Bill on Thursday
The House will vote on the farm bill this Thursday. This afternoon, the House Rules Committee is meeting to consider the rule for the House’s consideration of the farm bill, specifically determining which amendments can and cannot be offered. There are a number of controversial amendments...
Anxiousness and Petulance; Calling a Spade; Trade Talk Environment; MAHAHA Farm Bill
Anxiousness and Petulance The U.S. war with Iran has come down to endurance. Washington sees Iran getting squeezed as the blockade eventually causes Iran’s whole oil system to back up and be forced into shutdown. It is estimated that Kharg Island’s storage will be capped out in 12&n...
Kevin Warsh’s Confirmation Hearings and Policy Directions
Kevin Warsh, formerly a member of the Federal Reserve Board, has been nominated by President Trump to be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Trump has long been critical of current Chair Jerome Powell, even opening a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into the handling of cost overruns...
Functional Dysfunction; Out of the Frying Pan
Functional Dysfunction Europe has contended that Donald Trump’s attempt to address the decades-long harm caused by Iran’s theocratic regime is “not our war.” The Continent is in an expensive energy crisis because of the Iran war, but moral angst is the only respons...
China Market Analysis
Economy The National Bureau of Statistics says China’s GDP grew 5 percent year-over-year in Q1 2026. Other sources contend that the Iran war has helped pull the economy out of deflation and that it is now in the middle stages of a multi-year correction. The data for the agriculture sector...
Farm Bill Amendments
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) has been working with Republican leadership to build momentum for a farm bill floor vote, likely expected the week of 27 April, but that depends on other must-pass legislative priorities. The House Rules Committee meets...
Aid versus Trade; Idealism versus Competition; AI and Ag; Untethered Presidency
Aid versus Trade Development assistance has a long and unsatisfying history. The causes of poverty were long ago identified as poor governance and the lack of rule of law. But the UN could not criticize the national leaders that form its membership, and so for decades development assistance has...
Iran Peace Talks on Again, Off Again: Impacting Fertilizer
President Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on social media Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial vessels. Araghchi’s post said the strait will stay open for the remainder of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. President Trump said, “the Str...
War Impacts; Taxes and Tariffs
War Impacts May soybeans are now within a penny of their value two weeks ago, and May corn is back up to within half a percent of its price at that time. The S&P closed above 7,000 for the first time, and the Nasdaq hit a record high. The cost of gasoline is about 15 percent higher th...
China Market Analysis
Soybeans Dalien soybean futures and spot prices have defied seasonal trends since October 2025. They have been rising due to structural shortages of high-protein soybeans. Liu Mei, soybean analyst for Shanghai Steel Network, blames the situation on a poor harvest last year in the south, a delay...
Congress Coming Back to Busy Agenda
The House and Senate are returning from their two-week Easter recess period with a busy agenda ahead. While the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown has now hit the two-month mark, a plan is emerging to use reconciliation to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs a...
War Impacts
Commodity markets were mixed today, while Wall Street traded higher after President Trump said the Iranians still want to negotiate after he closed the Strait of Hormuz. The result is baffling to some, but the market reflects investor expectations about future corporate earnings and growth rath...
JBS Strike Settled, Beef Sector Still Under Inflationary Pressure
JBS USA announced on Sunday that it has reached a new collective bargaining agreement with UFCW Local 7, allowing the Greeley beef production facility to return to normal operations. The plant had been on strike since 16 March, with approximately 3,800 workers affected. The plant has the capaci...
Inflation Ramps Up on Energy and Food Away from Home
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, showing that it rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, month over month, after being up 0.3 percent in February, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. Energy was the...
Policy Deference; Reasserting Article I; Two-Tailed Dog; EU Imports; WTO Skepticism
Policy Deference The bilateral trade balance is a narrow way to look at the relative relationship between two countries. The government of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is seeking to ignore its own regulations that guide the application of the General Law on Adequate and Sustainable...
China Market Analysis
Hormuz Strategy China has been assisting Iran under a 25-year strategic agreement that has 90 percent of Iranian crude going to the Middle Kingdom. Iran is not currently blocking tankers passing through the Strait and on their way to China. At the same time, China is providing Iran with dual-us...
Sugar Supply and Demand Situation
Mexico’s 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to be 5.024 million MT, reflecting about a 6 percent increase from 4.7 million MT after the past two years of weather-affected output, including both persistent drought and ill-timed rains. Nonetheless, production remains near the low end com...
Farmland Consolidation
Under the theory of economies of scale, the size of farms, like that of all industries, should increase over time due to improvements in productivity. Farmers themselves understand that the more land they farm, the greater their output and, thus, the larger their potential incomes. Government p...
The President’s 2027 Budget Proposal
President Trump unveiled his FY2027 budget proposal on Friday. The President’s budget, which is largely for positioning purposes, poses a starting point for Congressional budget deliberations and proposes a 19 percent cut to the USDA and a massive 42 percent boost to Pentagon spending. Th...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 2 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Monday, 6 April. ...
AI Disaster; Fringe Opinions; NTE 40th Update
AI Disaster Opponents of artificial intelligence, like Senator Bernie Sanders (S-Vermont), warn that the technology risks the end of the human race. So-called AI “doomers” are campaigning to stall advancements out of precaution, mostly fearing adverse impacts on the labor force. The...
Lots To Do for Congress When They Return to Washington
Congress is in recess this week ahead of the Easter and Passover holidays, with much yet to do, including ending a partial shutdown and considering the “skinny” farm bill. Congress is scheduled to return on 13 April, though that may change, especially if the Homeland Security fundin...
China Market Analysis
SPS Barriers India’s rice exports to China have been accelerating, but Beijing recently rejected three shipments of non-Basmati rice, citing genetically modified content. The technical rejection is notable because China’s Certification and Inspection Group had already pre-cleared th...
Forlorn or Failure; Fertile or Futile; AI Impacts; Dirty Dozen Disinformation
Forlorn or Failure The spin from the WTO on the organization’s recent MC14 meetings was that a lot of decisions were adopted, progress was made, and while the event “ran out of time,” new commitments on outstanding issues can still be made in Geneva. Director-General Ngozi Oko...
Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports Preview
The 2026 USDA Prospective Plantings Report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The report surveys farmer planting intentions for major crops, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. It also asks about 2025 planted and prevent-plant acres. This report gives the first real snapshot of what planted ac...
Grassley and Smith Introduce Meat Industry Consolidation Bill
Previously, on 24 March, WPI wrote about fertilizer consolidation and an effort by Majority Leader John Thune to introduce mandatory price reporting for fertilizer, similar to the process for meat and dairy. However, the efforts to address concentration and market transparency continue. More re...
Iran War Impacts; Trade Agreements
Iran War Impacts Confidence in the economy is often tied to partisan politics, with Democrats seeing green when they control the White House, and Republicans ready to invest when their party is in charge. War always creates uncertainty, but uncertainty does not determine the market. A famous gr...
China Market Analysis
Balanced Trade Bilateral trade in both directions between the U.S. and China has slowed, but Chinese Premier Li Qiang told last week’s meeting of the China Development Forum 2026 that Beijing pledges balanced trade and greater openness. His country is seeking to reassure foreign investors...
Thune Introduces Fertilizer Price Reporting Bill
The war in Iran has brought the four-year simmering focus on fertilizer prices to a quick boil. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) introduced the Fertilizer Transparency Act, cosponsored by Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsi...
WTO Realism; Reindustrialization; Canadian Ego
WTO Realism The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins later this week, and while some have high hopes, pragmatists understand the elongated nature of consensus-based multinational policy development. EU trade minister Maroš Šefčovič expresses the hopes of his constituents...
War in Iran Taking Toll on Meat Exports Globally and U.S. Agriculture
The war in Iran is taking a toll on meat exports as well as fuel and fertilizer. As noted in a letter to the Administration, “Maritime freight disruptions from the ongoing conflict in Iran pose significant consequences to food security here at home and around the world.” This comes...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
Great Timing; Farm Skeptics; War’s Impact; Thursday’s Tumults
Great Timing The workers’ union at the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colorado, is on strike. The union is demanding more pay for its members, of course, and they want the company to pay for gloves. Given the shortage of cattle, there is overcapacity in cattle slaughter, and JBS has be...
China Market Analysis
Bilateral Postponement The upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is being delayed about “a month or so” at the request of Trump. He says he needs the time to focus on the war in Iran. Chinese leaders may also benefit from the extra time to assess the...
China Ag Purchases; Tariffs and More
China Ag Purchases The market reacted today to suggestions that President Trump will delay his planned trip to China at the end of the month due to the war in Iran. The excuse is somewhat of a surprise considering this President is usually hyper-multitasking. Soybean investors took it hard, but...
Administration Takes Aim at Fertilizer Prices
The war in Iran is impacting not only crude oil prices but also fertilizer prices. It is a supply issue, and thus the Treasury Department has announced new waivers for Venezuela to provide price relief and reduce the threat of shortages. It is not clear, however, whether this will be enough to...
USTR Announces Multiple Section 301 Investigations
United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer on Wednesday announced the initiation of investigations regarding the “acts, policies, and practices” of various countries under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974 relating to structural excess capacity and production in...
New, Old Approach; Scale Assault; Bumpy Road
New, Old Approach Having had its broad IEEPA approach to applying global tariffs shot down by the High Court, USTR announced yesterday that it is launching Section 301 investigations against 16 countries for unfair trading practices. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a long...
China Market Analysis
Iran War The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran are said to complicate the visit later this month by President Trump to China. As an ally of Iran and a major purchaser of its oil, China has an acute interest in the current war. It is especially being harmed by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
Farm Bill Clears House of Representatives
After two days of mark-up, the so-called “skinny farm bill,” the Farm, Food, and National Security Act, cleared the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee by a vote of 34-17, with 7 Democrats joining all 27 Republicans voting in favor. It will now move to the House floor and...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
China Market Analysis
War and China The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran also involve China, tangentially if not directly. Iran has been supplying about 13.4 percent of China’s oil imports, roughly 1 million barrels per day. The attacks follow the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader, a country that is a s...
Schumer Planning a Bill to Force Divestiture in Meat Industry
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is currently seeking co-sponsors for a bill he will introduce as early as Thursday of this week, the Family Grocer and Farmer Relief Act. The plan promises to “break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign-controlled corporate giants, and use...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Conflict in the Gulf: Impacts on Shipping and Energy
For weeks now, global energy and geopolitical markets have been speculating about a possible conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., but they still seemed unprepared and entirely surprised by what happened this weekend. Without going into the details that news outlets have alrea...
Transatlantic Sensitivities; Political Calculations
Transatlantic Sensitivities The frustration between the U.S. and Europe runs both ways, but the calculation is still one of mutual need, as articulated by American Secretary of State Marco Rubio at last month’s Munich Security Conference. Two recent data points will exasperate the White H...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Cold Storage Report: Up over Last Month, Down on the Year
The Cold Storage report for January showed that red meat and poultry supplies rose from the month ending December, but total supplies are down from a year ago and well below the 5-year average. Total supplies were 1.878 billion pounds, down 2.5 percent from a year ago. This indicates a tighteni...
Policy Roundup
Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5...
China Market Analysis
Farm Policy Next week is China’s annual ‘Two Sessions’ (the People’s Congress plus a consultative body) where Beijing releases its next Five-Year Plan. It has already released its 15th Five-Year Plan for agriculture. It reflects the nation’s evolution from a develo...
Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs: Out with Old, In with New
Last Thursday, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld a lower court ruling that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were “contrary to the law.” However, as President Trump noted, the opinion remained silent on the issue of rebatin...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
Cattle on Feed Report: Bullish Outlook
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released Friday. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.5 million head, unchanged from last month, but 98 percent of last year. Marketings totaled 1.63 million head, or 87 percent of last year, in li...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
U.S. to Temporarily Suspend TRQs on Over-Quota Tariffs on Beef
The Trump Administration is planning a suspension of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means to address high beef prices in the U.S. U.S. cattle and beef prices have increased based on exceptionally strong consumer demand, the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75...
Policy Potpourri
Tax Policy Teed Up The debate over taxes on billionaires is heating up a larger fight over tax policy for the next U.S. Congress. This is good news because a fight solely over whether the wealthy are evil overlooks many larger issues plaguing the system. The journalist Josh Barro says that ever...
Solid Jobs Report, but the Devil is in the Details
Nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 in April, beating the consensus expectation for a gain of 65,000. Payroll gains for February and March were revised down by a combined 16,000, resulting in a net gain of 99,000, including revisions. The largest increases in April were health care and social a...
Dressed Carcass Politicians
Gutless politicians are an unsurprising feature, but are nonetheless disappointing. Their constituents often do not care why beef prices are high; they just want them lowered. And if there is no easy solution, then the politician’s goal is to deflect the criticism toward anyone else, whet...
House MAHA Hearing on State Laws in Energy and Commerce Committee
The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health held a hearing on legislative proposals concerning food regulation and oversight. The hearing was focused on a wide range of bills, in keeping with the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda, ranging from anti–plant-based dairy produc...
China Market Analysis
Decline of China Ag Import Market The media has focused on China’s self-sufficiency effort in agriculture and its implications. In a largely political statement, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Congress that the Trump Administration wants to broaden the agricultural imports...
Ag and Trade Paradigm Shifts
The Middle East is said to be undergoing a transformation as economic priorities transcend security concerns. This is evidenced by diversification away from oil and the UAE’s departure from OPEC. Meanwhile, the Palestine issue has been deprioritized, and Iran has emerged as more destabili...
E15 Plans: House Vote and Addition to Farm Bill Package for Senate
All eyes are shifting to the Senate following the House passage of a farm bill last Thursday. Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Arkansas) is targeting the end of May or early June for a bill markup. According to Boozman, the House “going ahead and passing something was re...
GDP at Modest 2 Percent Growth
Real GDP grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2026, slightly below the consensus expectation of 2.3 percent but above the 0.5 percent growth in Q4 2025. The GDP number matches the average annualized pace of growth since the peak back in late 2007, right before the Financial P...
House Ag Appropriations Bill: Moving to Full Committee This Week
Congress is moving forward with its FY 2027 spending bills, while also still working to address FY 2026 funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which is still in a shutdown. The House Agriculture-FDA Appropriations Subcommittee marked up and passed its FY 2027 bill. The House bill prov...
China Market Analysis
The overarching concern for China is that the rising cost of energy will reduce global trade demand at the same time that countries are becoming more protectionist. Trump Visit to China President Trump’s visit to China is in just over two weeks, though some question whether the trip...
Farm Bill on Thursday
The House will vote on the farm bill this Thursday. This afternoon, the House Rules Committee is meeting to consider the rule for the House’s consideration of the farm bill, specifically determining which amendments can and cannot be offered. There are a number of controversial amendments...
Anxiousness and Petulance; Calling a Spade; Trade Talk Environment; MAHAHA Farm Bill
Anxiousness and Petulance The U.S. war with Iran has come down to endurance. Washington sees Iran getting squeezed as the blockade eventually causes Iran’s whole oil system to back up and be forced into shutdown. It is estimated that Kharg Island’s storage will be capped out in 12&n...
Kevin Warsh’s Confirmation Hearings and Policy Directions
Kevin Warsh, formerly a member of the Federal Reserve Board, has been nominated by President Trump to be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Trump has long been critical of current Chair Jerome Powell, even opening a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into the handling of cost overruns...
Functional Dysfunction; Out of the Frying Pan
Functional Dysfunction Europe has contended that Donald Trump’s attempt to address the decades-long harm caused by Iran’s theocratic regime is “not our war.” The Continent is in an expensive energy crisis because of the Iran war, but moral angst is the only respons...
China Market Analysis
Economy The National Bureau of Statistics says China’s GDP grew 5 percent year-over-year in Q1 2026. Other sources contend that the Iran war has helped pull the economy out of deflation and that it is now in the middle stages of a multi-year correction. The data for the agriculture sector...
Farm Bill Amendments
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) has been working with Republican leadership to build momentum for a farm bill floor vote, likely expected the week of 27 April, but that depends on other must-pass legislative priorities. The House Rules Committee meets...
Aid versus Trade; Idealism versus Competition; AI and Ag; Untethered Presidency
Aid versus Trade Development assistance has a long and unsatisfying history. The causes of poverty were long ago identified as poor governance and the lack of rule of law. But the UN could not criticize the national leaders that form its membership, and so for decades development assistance has...
Iran Peace Talks on Again, Off Again: Impacting Fertilizer
President Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on social media Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial vessels. Araghchi’s post said the strait will stay open for the remainder of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. President Trump said, “the Str...
War Impacts; Taxes and Tariffs
War Impacts May soybeans are now within a penny of their value two weeks ago, and May corn is back up to within half a percent of its price at that time. The S&P closed above 7,000 for the first time, and the Nasdaq hit a record high. The cost of gasoline is about 15 percent higher th...
China Market Analysis
Soybeans Dalien soybean futures and spot prices have defied seasonal trends since October 2025. They have been rising due to structural shortages of high-protein soybeans. Liu Mei, soybean analyst for Shanghai Steel Network, blames the situation on a poor harvest last year in the south, a delay...
Congress Coming Back to Busy Agenda
The House and Senate are returning from their two-week Easter recess period with a busy agenda ahead. While the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown has now hit the two-month mark, a plan is emerging to use reconciliation to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs a...
War Impacts
Commodity markets were mixed today, while Wall Street traded higher after President Trump said the Iranians still want to negotiate after he closed the Strait of Hormuz. The result is baffling to some, but the market reflects investor expectations about future corporate earnings and growth rath...
JBS Strike Settled, Beef Sector Still Under Inflationary Pressure
JBS USA announced on Sunday that it has reached a new collective bargaining agreement with UFCW Local 7, allowing the Greeley beef production facility to return to normal operations. The plant had been on strike since 16 March, with approximately 3,800 workers affected. The plant has the capaci...
Inflation Ramps Up on Energy and Food Away from Home
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, showing that it rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, month over month, after being up 0.3 percent in February, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. Energy was the...
Policy Deference; Reasserting Article I; Two-Tailed Dog; EU Imports; WTO Skepticism
Policy Deference The bilateral trade balance is a narrow way to look at the relative relationship between two countries. The government of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is seeking to ignore its own regulations that guide the application of the General Law on Adequate and Sustainable...
China Market Analysis
Hormuz Strategy China has been assisting Iran under a 25-year strategic agreement that has 90 percent of Iranian crude going to the Middle Kingdom. Iran is not currently blocking tankers passing through the Strait and on their way to China. At the same time, China is providing Iran with dual-us...
Sugar Supply and Demand Situation
Mexico’s 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to be 5.024 million MT, reflecting about a 6 percent increase from 4.7 million MT after the past two years of weather-affected output, including both persistent drought and ill-timed rains. Nonetheless, production remains near the low end com...
Farmland Consolidation
Under the theory of economies of scale, the size of farms, like that of all industries, should increase over time due to improvements in productivity. Farmers themselves understand that the more land they farm, the greater their output and, thus, the larger their potential incomes. Government p...
The President’s 2027 Budget Proposal
President Trump unveiled his FY2027 budget proposal on Friday. The President’s budget, which is largely for positioning purposes, poses a starting point for Congressional budget deliberations and proposes a 19 percent cut to the USDA and a massive 42 percent boost to Pentagon spending. Th...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 2 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Monday, 6 April. ...
AI Disaster; Fringe Opinions; NTE 40th Update
AI Disaster Opponents of artificial intelligence, like Senator Bernie Sanders (S-Vermont), warn that the technology risks the end of the human race. So-called AI “doomers” are campaigning to stall advancements out of precaution, mostly fearing adverse impacts on the labor force. The...
Lots To Do for Congress When They Return to Washington
Congress is in recess this week ahead of the Easter and Passover holidays, with much yet to do, including ending a partial shutdown and considering the “skinny” farm bill. Congress is scheduled to return on 13 April, though that may change, especially if the Homeland Security fundin...
China Market Analysis
SPS Barriers India’s rice exports to China have been accelerating, but Beijing recently rejected three shipments of non-Basmati rice, citing genetically modified content. The technical rejection is notable because China’s Certification and Inspection Group had already pre-cleared th...
Forlorn or Failure; Fertile or Futile; AI Impacts; Dirty Dozen Disinformation
Forlorn or Failure The spin from the WTO on the organization’s recent MC14 meetings was that a lot of decisions were adopted, progress was made, and while the event “ran out of time,” new commitments on outstanding issues can still be made in Geneva. Director-General Ngozi Oko...
Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports Preview
The 2026 USDA Prospective Plantings Report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The report surveys farmer planting intentions for major crops, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. It also asks about 2025 planted and prevent-plant acres. This report gives the first real snapshot of what planted ac...
Grassley and Smith Introduce Meat Industry Consolidation Bill
Previously, on 24 March, WPI wrote about fertilizer consolidation and an effort by Majority Leader John Thune to introduce mandatory price reporting for fertilizer, similar to the process for meat and dairy. However, the efforts to address concentration and market transparency continue. More re...
Iran War Impacts; Trade Agreements
Iran War Impacts Confidence in the economy is often tied to partisan politics, with Democrats seeing green when they control the White House, and Republicans ready to invest when their party is in charge. War always creates uncertainty, but uncertainty does not determine the market. A famous gr...
China Market Analysis
Balanced Trade Bilateral trade in both directions between the U.S. and China has slowed, but Chinese Premier Li Qiang told last week’s meeting of the China Development Forum 2026 that Beijing pledges balanced trade and greater openness. His country is seeking to reassure foreign investors...
Thune Introduces Fertilizer Price Reporting Bill
The war in Iran has brought the four-year simmering focus on fertilizer prices to a quick boil. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) introduced the Fertilizer Transparency Act, cosponsored by Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsi...
WTO Realism; Reindustrialization; Canadian Ego
WTO Realism The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins later this week, and while some have high hopes, pragmatists understand the elongated nature of consensus-based multinational policy development. EU trade minister Maroš Šefčovič expresses the hopes of his constituents...
War in Iran Taking Toll on Meat Exports Globally and U.S. Agriculture
The war in Iran is taking a toll on meat exports as well as fuel and fertilizer. As noted in a letter to the Administration, “Maritime freight disruptions from the ongoing conflict in Iran pose significant consequences to food security here at home and around the world.” This comes...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
Great Timing; Farm Skeptics; War’s Impact; Thursday’s Tumults
Great Timing The workers’ union at the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colorado, is on strike. The union is demanding more pay for its members, of course, and they want the company to pay for gloves. Given the shortage of cattle, there is overcapacity in cattle slaughter, and JBS has be...
China Market Analysis
Bilateral Postponement The upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is being delayed about “a month or so” at the request of Trump. He says he needs the time to focus on the war in Iran. Chinese leaders may also benefit from the extra time to assess the...
China Ag Purchases; Tariffs and More
China Ag Purchases The market reacted today to suggestions that President Trump will delay his planned trip to China at the end of the month due to the war in Iran. The excuse is somewhat of a surprise considering this President is usually hyper-multitasking. Soybean investors took it hard, but...
Administration Takes Aim at Fertilizer Prices
The war in Iran is impacting not only crude oil prices but also fertilizer prices. It is a supply issue, and thus the Treasury Department has announced new waivers for Venezuela to provide price relief and reduce the threat of shortages. It is not clear, however, whether this will be enough to...
USTR Announces Multiple Section 301 Investigations
United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer on Wednesday announced the initiation of investigations regarding the “acts, policies, and practices” of various countries under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974 relating to structural excess capacity and production in...
New, Old Approach; Scale Assault; Bumpy Road
New, Old Approach Having had its broad IEEPA approach to applying global tariffs shot down by the High Court, USTR announced yesterday that it is launching Section 301 investigations against 16 countries for unfair trading practices. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a long...
China Market Analysis
Iran War The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran are said to complicate the visit later this month by President Trump to China. As an ally of Iran and a major purchaser of its oil, China has an acute interest in the current war. It is especially being harmed by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
Farm Bill Clears House of Representatives
After two days of mark-up, the so-called “skinny farm bill,” the Farm, Food, and National Security Act, cleared the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee by a vote of 34-17, with 7 Democrats joining all 27 Republicans voting in favor. It will now move to the House floor and...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
China Market Analysis
War and China The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran also involve China, tangentially if not directly. Iran has been supplying about 13.4 percent of China’s oil imports, roughly 1 million barrels per day. The attacks follow the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader, a country that is a s...
Schumer Planning a Bill to Force Divestiture in Meat Industry
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is currently seeking co-sponsors for a bill he will introduce as early as Thursday of this week, the Family Grocer and Farmer Relief Act. The plan promises to “break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign-controlled corporate giants, and use...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Conflict in the Gulf: Impacts on Shipping and Energy
For weeks now, global energy and geopolitical markets have been speculating about a possible conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., but they still seemed unprepared and entirely surprised by what happened this weekend. Without going into the details that news outlets have alrea...
Transatlantic Sensitivities; Political Calculations
Transatlantic Sensitivities The frustration between the U.S. and Europe runs both ways, but the calculation is still one of mutual need, as articulated by American Secretary of State Marco Rubio at last month’s Munich Security Conference. Two recent data points will exasperate the White H...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Cold Storage Report: Up over Last Month, Down on the Year
The Cold Storage report for January showed that red meat and poultry supplies rose from the month ending December, but total supplies are down from a year ago and well below the 5-year average. Total supplies were 1.878 billion pounds, down 2.5 percent from a year ago. This indicates a tighteni...
Policy Roundup
Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5...
China Market Analysis
Farm Policy Next week is China’s annual ‘Two Sessions’ (the People’s Congress plus a consultative body) where Beijing releases its next Five-Year Plan. It has already released its 15th Five-Year Plan for agriculture. It reflects the nation’s evolution from a develo...
Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs: Out with Old, In with New
Last Thursday, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld a lower court ruling that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were “contrary to the law.” However, as President Trump noted, the opinion remained silent on the issue of rebatin...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
Cattle on Feed Report: Bullish Outlook
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released Friday. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.5 million head, unchanged from last month, but 98 percent of last year. Marketings totaled 1.63 million head, or 87 percent of last year, in li...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...