Recent Wheat Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.5425/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.5/short ton, up $5.9...
Market Commentary: “Chances” for Peace and Disinflation; Cattle Market Meddling
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat futures pulled back sharply after Russian President Putin said there was a “chance” for peace and an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. There is plenty of skepticism about the opportunity for peace in Ukraine, but that didn’t stop wheat fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Market Commentary: The Calendar Is Not in Control
Energy: Risk Over Rules Fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight. Tehran accused U.S. forces of striking a residential area after U.S. Central Command said its second round of attacks in three days targeted Iranian radar systems and mi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 August 2026 During the fourth week of August, the Russian grain market continued to slide, although the pace of the decline slowed. The immediate market reaction and collapse in export activity have placed significant pressure on farmers. Price declines vary b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
Market Commentary: Contract Highs to Start September; Demand Destruction is the Point
What You Need to Know Today: The EPA offered an extension for 2025 RSF compliance reporting from 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026 and announced decisions on requests to exempt 34 small refineries from the requirements. The U.S. is stepping up attacks against Iran after two tankers carrying c...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt, at the end of July, is once again the largest importer of maize from Brazil at about 2.6 million MT from January to July — followed by Iran at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 665,000 MT, Saudi Arabia at 435,000 MT, and Israel at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift on Profit Taking but Trend-Higher Regime Remains in Place
What You Need to Know Today: End-of-month profit taking sent the CBOT broadly lower, though corn and soybeans managed to post small gains to continue their rallies. Turkey’s foreign ministry claimed to have a plan to ensure safe passage for both Ukrainian and Russian grain vessels via th...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 31 August)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Tightening Supplies and Strong Demand Fuel a Grain Market Rally
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean prices rallied sharply last week as declining U.S. production expectations collided with strong demand, raising the prospect of tighter supplies and leaving the market with a smaller margin for further yield losses. The USDA’s lower August yield estimates...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The 2026/27 Argentine corn planting outlook remains broadly stable, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projecting 8.4 Mha, unchanged from 2025/26. Regional shifts are expected to largely offset each other, with lower acreage in the NOA and NEA due to renewed concerns over Dalbu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: After Bullish Week, WPI Bias is Higher but Risk Management More Important
What You Need to Know Today: Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all formed new contract or at least rally highs to close what has become one of the most uniformly bullish weeks in CBOT history. Escalations in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and attacks on civilian merchant vessels show n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: When Bottlenecks Move Markets
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Export, Yield, and Attack Headlines Drive Grains to New Highs
What You Need to Know Today: The day belonged to the bulls as fund buying and technical momentum boosted corn, soybeans, and wheat to new rally or contract highs. Wheat futures exploded Wednesday around the world after Russia indicated it will increase its attacks on Ukrainian export infrastru...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the third week of August as the Black Sea blockade severely disrupted export logistics. The resulting loss of export capacity is pressuring domestic prices and increasing storage concerns as the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3775/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Trade Dominates as Yields, Supplies Face Threats
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean crop ratings declined late Monday and set the stage for stronger CBOT trade Tuesday. Funds are in risk-on mode across the ag space, resulting in firm trade and solid gains for grains and oilseeds. Iran and Oman released a joint statement saying the...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco is reported to be resuming soft wheat imports on 16 September 2026, ending the three-month ban on imports that had begun on 1 June 2026. The government will announce the details of the 2026 wheat support program shortly. N...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.995/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, up $2.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Yield Assessments Drive CBOT Reactions; Cattle Fall on Beef Import News
What You Need to Know Today: Pro Farmer’s crop tour pegged the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 173.2 BPA and anticipated a 15.344 Bbu crop – both figures well below expectations. Pro Farmer forecast 2026 U.S. soybean yields at 53.3 BPA, above most private estimates and USDA’s August W...
Gene Editing Offers a New Path for Crop Development
Key Takeaways: Gene editing makes targeted changes to a plant’s existing DNA, while genetic modification can introduce genetic material from another organism to create traits not naturally present in the crop. Gene editing is unlikely to replace genetic modification entirely, as the two...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued to face delays due to high grain moisture and poor field conditions in some areas. Despite elevated moisture levels, an increasing number of farmers began harvesting as crop losses and lodging emerged. Harvest progress has now surpassed 80 percent b...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Concerns about U.S. corn and soybean yields and continued disruptions in the Black Sea drove a week of bullish activity at the CBOT. Managed money traders bought 127,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 29 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the buyin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.395/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.8/short ton, up $2 from ye...
Market Commentary: Bullish Momentum Continues for Corn and Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: There has already been a strong run of flash soybean sales announcements in recent weeks, but more than 1.4 MMT reported this morning is an exceptionally large single-day total with major implications for the market. If the sales to China and unknown destinations w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.035/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.365/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, down $1.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Point to Lower Yield Potential
What You Need to Know Today: Day three of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found corn yield potential below last year in both Illinois and western Iowa. Illinois corn yields averaged 184.2 bushels/acre, down from 199.6 bushels/acre last year and the 199.2 bushels/acre three-year average, while wester...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.975/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3725/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.6/short ton, up $6.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Pressure Moves, Markets Reprice the Risk
Macro: Treasury Squeezes Yields, the Dollar Gives Way Today’s markets are offering a lesson in pressure: it rarely disappears — it simply moves. The U.S. Treasury stepped into the bond market after long-term yields surged to levels not seen in nearly two decades. By announcing plans...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to weaken sharply during the second week of August as the Black Sea logistics situation deteriorated. Russia and Ukraine continued exchanging drone and ballistic attacks on seaports, infrastructure and commercial...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.8/short ton, up $0.1 fr...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Hints at Rally Doubts
What You Need to Know Today: Declining crop conditions ratings and shaky results from the Pro Farmer crop tour sent grains sharply higher on Tuesday. The Pro Farmer tour in Ohio pegged the state yield at 180.18 BPA, about 5.5 BPA below the tour’s 2025 estimate. Similarly, the Pro Farmer...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is the largest importer of Brazilian maize in the first six months of 2026. Egypt imported about 28.4 percent of maize exports, or about 1.7 million MT. Iran was the third-largest importer at 14.5 percent, or 900,000 MT, fol...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Crop Tours Start and Weather Forecasts Shift
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. weather is getting more attention this week as conditions vary greatly across the western, central, and eastern corn belts, with the different regions battling dryness and too much rain simultaneously. The ProFarmer Crop Tour began today in Indiana and Nebrask...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather and pre-WASDE positioning last week overrode the Black Sea export and allowed bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT for the second straight week. Managed money traders sold 63,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 12.5 percent in the proce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.16/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $2.4 from yeste...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest progress has fallen further behind the normal pace, with the latest estimate showing more than 15 percentage points of delay versus previous years. Excessive grain moisture and poor road conditions continue to limit field access and slow harvest act...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: Russia Resists Black Sea Truce, Cattle Processing Consolidating Further
What You Need to Know Today: Russia rejected calls for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, including a proposal to halt attacks on civilian shipping that could help restore grain flows from Ukrainian ports. Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close its Joslin, Illinois, beef processing facili...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8225/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Market Commentary: Potential Black Sea Deal Could Reshape Global Grain Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: Wholesale inflation was flat in July, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unchanged versus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. Core PPI rose 0.2 percent, also below expectations. The softer inflation data has reduced the odds of a September interest rate incre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8325/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, up $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: From Headlines to Hard Numbers
Macro: Relief Meets Reality July’s CPI report matched expectations. Headline inflation eased to 3.4 percent year over year, while core inflation declined to 2.5 percent. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.1 percent and core increased 0.2 percent. Equities and the U.S. dollar traded h...
Black Sea and EU Export Discussion
One of the curious developments from the August WASDE was USDA’s handling of the European, Russian, and Ukrainian corn and wheat balance sheets. The EU has battled significant drought and heat this year, while Russia and Ukraine are increasingly locked in a battle for control over the Bla...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WASDE Wheat - August 2026
USDA’s August WASDE outlook for 2026/27 reduced U.S. wheat supplies on lower production, which is forecast at 1,531 million bushels, down 5 million from last month on decreased harvested area and yield. U.S. ending stocks of total wheat were reduced 5 million bushels to 717 million and ar...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the first week of August following the closure of the Azov and Don ports and restrictions on Black Sea trade linked to the war in Ukraine. Regular air attacks on infrastructure and vessels have fur...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6875/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Larger Global Supply Fears Send CBOT Lower Ahead of WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast 2027 U.S. WTI crude oil at $65.39/brl, up about $5 from the prior forecast. President Trump late Monday claimed the U.S. has swept the entire Strait of Hormuz (SOH) for sea mines. Iran’s security council said...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s annual urban consumer inflation rate is at 14.9 percent for July 2026, up from 14.3 percent in June. Nationwide annual inflation stands at 13.0 percent. Pakistan’s wheat and wheat flour prices continue to move...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather overrode the Black Sea export impacts in last week’s trade and left more bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT. Managed money traders sold 65,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 11 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.405/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.795/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $1.8...
Market Commentary: WASDE, Black Sea, and Iran Offer Offsetting Effects on Grain Futures
What You Need to Know Today: Tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend with Iran demanding the U.S. make multiple concessions that are likely non-starters before traffic can flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a mutual defense agreeme...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Weather continues to dominate the Argentine grain market. Rainfall persisted across much of the country’s agricultural region during the week, accompanied by unusually warm temperatures. As a result, soil moisture profiles remain fully recharged across most production areas. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7625/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.4/short ton, down $3.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Attention Turns to August WASDE Yield Estimates
What You Need to Know Today: Traders are increasingly focused on next Wednesday’s August WASDE report, with corn and soybean yield estimates expected to drive the next major move in grain markets. Recent crop condition declines and late-July heat have increased uncertainty around USDA&rs...
WPI August Grain Balance Sheet Projections
Key Takeaways: WPI’s 2025/26 corn export models continue to reflect strong international demand and put the total marketing year volume slightly above USDA’s estimates. Strong old crop corn exports are offset by weaker feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks slightly ele...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Awaiting New Catalysts
What You Need to Know Today: Iran has developed an initial draft plan that would prohibit U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to global energy trade. Although no restrictions have been enacted, the proposal adds anot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7475/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.8 f...
Market Commentary: Caution Beneath the Headlines
There are plenty of major headlines moving across the markets today, but the reaction beneath them remains cautious. Crude oil is holding steady despite reports of progress involving the Strait of Hormuz, corn and soybeans remain tied to changing weather forecasts, and wheat continues to weigh...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 July 2026 Russian grain prices declined sharply during the week under review as new-crop supplies entered the market and demand weakened. Corn and barley prices declined, while both milling and feed wheat and rye experienced larger losses. The harvest campaign...
Market Commentary: Improved Weather Outlook, Possible Iran Deal Send Grains, Oil Lower
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could “today or tomorrow” reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the Secretary’s claims, an attack on a vessel off the Omani coast suggests plenty of risk remains in forming a lo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.385/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.4/short ton, down $3.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region TMO, the Turkish Grain Board, has announced that milling wheat exports were allowed as of 29 July due to “sufficient domestic supplies.” All milling wheat exports will require approval of an export application; approva...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Halts, U.S. Weather Risks Send CBOT Higher
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump suspended the planned attacks on Iran and announced that the pieces for a framework for peace were in place in a weekend social media post. Iran, however, later said no efforts were underway to conduct negotiations with the U.S., though Oman indicat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0.4 from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina's corn harvest has reached 69.8 percent of the national harvestable area. Harvest progress remains constrained primarily in southeastern Buenos Aires, where persistently high humidity has slowed grain dry-down and prevented moisture levels from reaching harvest standards. As a re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3925/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Record Soyoil Demand Contrasts With Grain Market Weakness
What You Need to Know Today: Record biofuel demand continues to support soyoil values, as EIA data show that May soyoil usage as a biofuel feedstock reached a record 1.434 billion pounds. The latest data reinforces the strength of renewable fuel demand and helps explain ongoing investment in a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.8/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Cattle Outperform Hogs on Quiet Day for Corn and Soy
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran resumed missile strikes after a brief pause in fighting, raising concerns that the five-month conflict could expand across the Middle East. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles, Kuwait reported a fatal strike, and drone attacks damaged two natural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9275/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, dow...
Market Commentary: War Moves Oil. Weather Moves Grain.
If Wednesday’s trade proved anything, it is that not every market is listening to the same headline. Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran sent crude oil sharply higher after Iran fired ballistic missiles at an American airbase in Jordan. President Trump promised a U.S. response, pus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 July 2026 Bearish sentiment dominated the Russian grain market as the new harvest accelerated and supplies increased. Prices also weakened in eastern Russia ahead of harvest, reflecting expectations of ample supplies and Kazakhstan's import ban on Russian whea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.805/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.8/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally as Crop Ratings Fall; Global Shipping Becomes More Perilous
What You Need to Know Today: Shipping in the Black Sea is at a standstill, with neither Ukraine nor Russia yet ready to swerve in this game of maritime and export brinkmanship. Israeli media suggests the U.S. and Iran may be close to making a deal or at least restoring the memorandum of unders...
Banning Glyphosate Could be Expensive
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement has reached a critical point after the Supreme Court ruled on 25 June that Bayer is shielded from state-level lawsuits because federal regulation does not require the company to warn of alleged cancer risks from such products. Thousands of "failure...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco and Kazakhstan are looking at ways to expand their grain import/export programs, according to details of a recent meeting in Casablanca. Kazakhstan has grain (mainly wheat) and flour exports of 15.3 MMT and is looking at n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1375/bushel, down $0.3975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.1/short ton, down $11.1...
Market Commentary: Commodity Sell-Off on Middle East De-escalation and Border Reopening
What You Need to Know Today: It was just one of those days where seemingly everything was in the red as part of a broader risk-off economic sentiment amid de-escalation headlines in the Middle East. Other key fundamentals were also bearish, including the resumption of Mexican cattle imports an...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina's wheat planting advanced another 5.7 percentage points over the past week, reaching 97.7 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares despite persistent rainfall across the country's agricultural region. Planting is now complete in the western production areas and the Northern...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.2/short ton, up $3.3 from yes...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Headlines Shake Wheat Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The Trump administration announced new tariffs of 10 percent to 12.5 percent on imports from 60 major U.S. trading partners as part of a Section 301 action aimed at combating forced labor in global supply chains. Countries that have agreed to adopt and enforce bans...
Little Hope for Rumored Black Sea Civilian Vessel Agreement
Key Takeaways: Grain futures pulled back sharply in overnight trade Friday on rumors that Ukraine proposed two possible options for ensuring civilian vessel safety in the Black Sea. Both Russia and Ukraine have recently targeted civilian vessels carrying oil and grain in the Sea of Azov...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.9625/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, down $1 f...
Market Commentary: Oil Surge, Weather Risks and Export Demand Drive Grain Market Strength
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices surged today following reports of tanker attacks off the coast of Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels and renewed U.S. threats to escalate military strikes against Iran, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Brent crud...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8475/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $7.0575/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.39/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $332.9/short ton, up $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Wild Wednesday: Weather, War and Worry
Grains posted strong gains today, putting the bulls firmly in the driver’s seat. There was no shortage of fuel for the move, with three W’s driving the rally: weather, war and worry. Weather: Cooler temperatures are temporarily easing stress across the Northern Plains and Midwest, b...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 July 2026 New-crop trading dominated the Russian grain market during the week as old-crop business largely came to an end. Most transactions shifted to new-crop supplies, establishing new price ranges across the market. Bearish sentiment prevailed across most...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2275/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.3/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Momentum, Weather; Soybeans Sag on Quiet Exports
What You Need to Know Today: Grain futures fell hard overnight after the USDA’s Crop Conditions report showed better-than-expected ratings for corn and soybeans, despite difficult weather last week. The Conditions report was even more bearish in light of meaningfully beneficial rains acr...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan has just held its first meeting of the Committee on GM Corn. The Committee was established to "undertake an objective, science-based, and evidence-driven review of Pakistan’s policy regarding the commercialization o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.73/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.74/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2625/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, up $5.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Pop on China Buying; Weather Fuels Corn Rally; Cattle Score Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate with the two sides exchanging attacks over the weekend. President Trump said Iran “will pay” for recent attacks that claimed the lives of U.S. troops stationed in Jordan. There are some signs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally in conjunction with the resumption of the war in Iran and the export-tightening impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expandin...
Russia’s Diesel Export Ban Tightens Global Fuel Markets and Raises Agricultural Costs
Key Takeaways: Russia’s diesel export ban is tightening global fuel supplies and increasing dependence on alternative exporters. Limited refining capacity and logistical constraints make diesel markets especially sensitive to supply disruptions. Diesel supply disruptions are more difficu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Harvest delays continue to complicate Argentina's corn market. Persistently high humidity, combined with scattered rainfall across key producing regions, continues to slow harvest progress. In southern Buenos Aires, harvesting remains constrained by poor field access, while across central...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.03/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.5/short ton, down $3.9 from ye...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Tensions Driving Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes, with the U.S. hitting Iranian bridges, energy sites, and military infrastructure. Iran launched a missile into Kuwait that damaged a desalination plant. Crude oil futures surged on heightened Middle East tensions, providing supp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.95/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, up $2.4...
Market Commentary: Cattle Markets Remain Under Pressure, China Buys More Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Iran warned that it will retaliate against the U.S. if American strikes target Iranian infrastructure, as President Trump has threatened to do next week if negotiations between the two nations do not resume. President Trump is scheduled to deliver a primetime addre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: The Bulls Are Back in Town?
After spending much of the year searching for a reason to stay, the bulls suddenly have several. Grain markets have strengthened, wheat is leading the charge, outside markets are becoming more supportive, and geopolitical and weather risks are once again demanding attention. Does that mean the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 July 2026 New-crop price formation remained underway during the week, with bearish price movement concentrated in southern Russia and the Volga Valley, where harvest begins first and export access is strongest. Price volatility remains elevated across producing...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Conditions Data; Wheat Reverses the Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: Attacks between the U.S. and Iran intensified overnight and the U.S. Central Command reported that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran will begin at 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday. President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all shipping traffic, except Iran. In an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.45/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria's new Russian logistics hub at Tartous port is expected to be operational by the end of July. It is expected to handle 250,000 MT of cargo per month, including wheat and other grains. Initial shipments are expected to be Rus...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally continues to shift fund positioning and sentiment from its former bearish posture to a far more bullish configuration. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 98 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Market Commentary: Reassessing Weather and Geopolitical Risks
What You Need to Know Today: Rising hostilities and an end to any semblance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran created geopolitical risk-off trade in macroeconomic markets, though the CBOT seemed immune. President Trump announced the U.S. military would resume its naval blockade on Iran...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315/short ton, down $3.7 fro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina's wheat planting advanced another 7 percentage points over the past week, with 87.9 percent of the projected 6.5 Mha now seeded. Planting is entering its final stage across the central and northern production regions, except for parts of north-central Santa Fe, where excessive s...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
Ag Perspectives Quant - WPI's data-driven look at ag market fundamentals - presents the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which WPI feels are...
WASDE Corn - July 2026
USDA’s July WASDE outlook for 2026/27 reduced total U.S. corn ending stocks by 170 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average farm price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.40 per bushel. Foreign corn production was cut due to record heat in France. If realized, French pr...
WASDE Wheat - July 2026
USDA’s July WASDE outlook for 2026/27 reduced total U.S. wheat production by 7 million bushels from last month to 1,536 million – which is the lowest U.S. wheat production since 1970/71. The result is that projected 2026/27 ending stocks are 722 million bushels, which is down 22 per...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4025/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9075/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $3.3 from y...
Market Commentary: Bullish WASDE and Sea of Azov Strikes Lift Grains
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat prices surged after Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels and infrastructure disrupted grain shipments, halting traffic through the Sea of Azov, Kerch Strait, and Black Sea. The July WASDE report offered a modestly supportive outlook for corn, wheat, and soybe...
Wheat's Declining, Millers Keep Milling
Every June combines begin their annual sweep across the winter wheat fields of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. At the same time, USDA releases its Acreage and Crop Progress reports, providing the first comprehensive look at the size and condition of the crop. Most years the reports simply confirm...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.52/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.1975/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.815/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $4.2 fr...
Market Commentary: The Market Is Always Looking Ahead
Weather remains the dominant driver of grain markets this time of year, but this week's trade has been a reminder that futures markets are constantly looking ahead. Corn and soybean prices don't simply react to today's weather — they respond to where traders believe production risks will...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.0775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risk Back in Play
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump claimed the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was over, as both sides accused one another of violating the terms of the agreement. Commercial vessels are increasingly steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz as security risks escalate following Iran...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 June-3 July 2026 The new marketing season has officially begun in Russia, although bearish sentiment has been concentrated in the southern regions closest to the Black Sea ports, where export demand has been weakest. Delays in grain deliveries to inland elevators have...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.185/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9775/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.5/short ton, up $3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Amid Weather Market; U.S. Revokes Iran’s Oil Licenses
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Why Middle Eastern and North African Wheat Demand Remains a Key Driver of Global Trade
Key Takeaways: The Middle East and North Africa's arid climate and limited water resources have created a structural dependence on imported wheat. Government wheat tenders in major importing countries serve as important benchmarks for global trade, providing insight into exporter competitivene...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Bangladesh is reported to have finalized the purchase of 270,000 MT of wheat, including 220,000 MT of U.S. wheat. The U.S. wheat is priced at $322/MT, with an additional 50,000 MT of wheat at $297.90/MT through an international te...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.445 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, up $9.1 from...
Market Commentary: Weather Risk Materializes
What You Need to Know Today: This time of year, grain markets are often just one weather forecast away from a sharp rally, and today's hotter, drier outlook provided the catalyst for significant gains in corn and soybean futures. Livestock markets were relatively quiet by comparison, with most...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina's corn harvest has reached 52.9 percent of the national harvestable area, with an average yield of 8.15 MT/ha. Harvest continues at a moderate pace because of high grain and field moisture, particularly across central and southern Buenos Aires Province. Over the past se...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Trading Cools Off After an Eventful Report Week
What You Need to Know Today: The June jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k jobs, less than the 115k jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The labor force participation rate dropped by 0.3 percent to 61.5 percent, the lowest since March 2021, and the lowest in 50 ye...
U.S. Exports to Cuba: It’s About Displacement
As Cuba's economic crisis has deepened, discussions about the country's eventual economic and political transition have reemerged. One question that inevitably follows is what opportunities might emerge for U.S. agricultural exports. So, here’s a brief review of those opportunities, but n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4925/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: New Month, New Trade?
Key Market Insights July is here, and the grain markets already feel like they are shifting gears. With the June USDA reports now behind us, inflation is back in the conversation, and traders are once again turning their attention to three familiar summer drivers: demand, money flow, and weathe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 June 2026 The Russian grain market remained volatile during the week as farmers continued to hold old-crop supplies while new-crop availability remained limited. The ruble weakened nearly 5 percent against the U.S. dollar during the week, supporting domestic grain p...
Summary of Futures
Sep 26 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $0 from...
Market Commentary: Acreage, Stocks Surprises Send Corn, Wheat Higher; Fund Selling Likely to Subside
What You Need to Know Today: The surprises from the USDA’s Acreage report were a sharp reduction in winter wheat area from the March Prospective Plantings estimates and a larger-than-expected increase in corn area. The Grain Stocks report offered relatively few surprises, but quarterly d...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Oman Flour Mills has begun its 2026 purchases of locally produced wheat. The mill runs a government-supported program that it says strengthens the country’s food supply. The program is said to “improve farming practice...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.39/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $2.3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Downside Risks Rise as Funds Pad Bearish Bets, Corn Hits New Lows
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to pause hostilities to allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz this week (theoretically, at least). There were some rumors of a possible Chinese blockade against Taiwan. Analysts are looking for the largest U.S. 1 June cor...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina's corn harvest continued to advance at a moderate-to-slow pace, constrained by high moisture levels in both the grain and the fields. Harvest delays remain concentrated in the remaining early-planted corn in central and southern Buenos Aires. To date, harvesting has rea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate CBOT trade, which last week resulted in the ag markets seeing another period consecutive net liquidation. Managed money traders liquidated another 84,000 contracts (42 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the largest net l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5625/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $307/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Acreage Report Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices dropped sharply with traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. There were reports that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman, which would be a violation of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Pr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.015/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $4.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: Focus Turns to New Crop Export Sales
What You Need to Know Today: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Bayer secured a favorable Suprem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.35/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.7 fro...
Market Commentary: The Battle for Support
Key Market Insights Outside markets dominated today’s session. Crude oil traded below $70 per barrel, the U.S. dollar climbed to a 13-month high, and both gold and silver posted sharp declines as traders increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 June 2026 The Russian grain market moved lower this week as prices declined across all grain categories ahead of the end of the marketing year. Weakness was observed in both European Russia and the Asian regions, where markets continue to track bearish sentiment in...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.0975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.97/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4175/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.9/short ton, up $3.1...
Market Commentary: Searching for Something New
What You Need to Know Today: There is a global rotation out of tech stocks right now amid profit-taking and expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. The White House said Iran will use its upcoming unsanctioned oil revenue to buy U.S. agricultural products, a claim that Iran later s...
Argentina’s Agricultural Export Tax Reform at Risk
Key Takeaways: Argentina is a major global agricultural exporter, but producer returns have historically been constrained by export taxes. Export taxes have been a long-standing policy tool since 1955, reintroduced in 2002 after Argentina’s financial crisis, and have since remained a key...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Egypt’s wheat market is very quiet due to good stocks and low demand. Private sector millers are using local wheat production. Egypt’s maize imports have picked up this week, with shipment...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continue to hold broadly bearish sentiments resulted in the ag markets as last week marked another in a string of consecutive net liquidation periods. Managed money traders liquidated another 105,000 contracts (35 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.415/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, down $1.5...
Market Commentary: Mixed Macro Signals Keeping Grains Rangebound
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days after “productive talks” with Iran in Switzerland over the weekend. Chevron and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement to develop Project Kilby, a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina's wheat planting campaign advanced 13.4 percentage points week over week. Despite limited rainfall, low temperatures, and elevated atmospheric humidity, soil recovery remains slow across the southern agricultural belt, where field access for machinery continues to be constrained...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4275/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary: Selling Across Most Commodities After Hawkish Fed
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1275/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.32/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0 from yest...
Market Commentary: Markets on Pins & Needles
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Naturally Resilient Crops Are Key to Drought Mitigation
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 June 2026 The Russian grain market was highly volatile during the week. The export market, the primary driver of domestic prices, remained stagnant, and bearish sentiment persisted. Weaker demand and expectations for a strong upcoming harvest encouraged exporters to...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Market Commentary: China Buying Rumors Lift Soybeans; Cattle Rise on Beef Demand Hopes
What You Need to Know Today: American and Mexican officials met Tuesday and will meet again Wednesday for another round of trade talks, where ag and energy will be a key topic. Another round is scheduled for 20 July. Ag groups are urging President Trump to renew USMCA for another 16 years, but...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Wheat stocks in Egypt are at good levels, with only limited import interest. However, there is some concern over the supply of wheat from the Black Sea later in the year due to current weather problem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, up $0.7 from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall across most of Argentina's agricultural regions during the past week slowed the pace of 2026/27 wheat planting. Even so, planting progress has reached 44.2 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares, following a weekly advance of 11.8 percentage points. Fieldwork was concentra...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.135/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Quiet Trade Follows WASDE as Livestock Sector Faces Capacity Shifts
What You Need to Know Today: It was a quiet trading day across major agricultural commodities, with most contracts closing within 1 percent of the previous day's settlement. Trading volumes for corn and the soy complex were lighter than earlier in the week, as traders were positioning before a...
WASDE Wheat - June 2026
USDA’s June outlook for 2026/27 reduced the U.S. average wheat yield by 0.5 bushels per acre to 47.0 bushels and ending stocks are reduced 18 million bushels to 744 million. However, U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 775 million bushels The result is 2026/27 season-average farm price is...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8675/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.15/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.7/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: June WASDE Light on Major Balance Sheet Changes
What You Need to Know Today: The June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations, with no major market-altering changes to the balance sheets. The Producer Price Index rose by 1.1 percent month-over-month in May 2026, exceeding economist estimates of a 0.7 percent rise. The annual head...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.875/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.23/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.9/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: The Return of Risk Premium
Key Market Insights Macro Markets: Inflation and Iran Reenter the Conversation Just when the grain trade had become comfortable focusing almost exclusively on weather, two major macro stories returned to the spotlight this morning: inflation and Iran. May CPI came in hotter than expected, with...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 June 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing the first signs of the new season. The shift became visible on export trading platforms as global bearish sentiment intensified, supported by improving crop expectations across Russia's sou...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1375/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $1.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Stabilization Continues, But What Next?
What You Need to Know Today: Early Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Secretary said vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising in a “very meaningful way.” Tuesday afternoon, however, President Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormu...
China Market Analysis
Miscellaneous Initial excitement over China’s pledges to buy American farm products has faded, as no purchases have immediately materialized. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet its purchase commitments from the U.S., but market conditions and tra...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s currency has weakened in the past few weeks as higher energy costs related to the US/Iran conflict have pushed import prices up. Imports are paid mainly in US dollars and demand for the dollar has caused the Egyptian...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.5425/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.5/short ton, up $5.9...
Market Commentary: “Chances” for Peace and Disinflation; Cattle Market Meddling
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat futures pulled back sharply after Russian President Putin said there was a “chance” for peace and an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. There is plenty of skepticism about the opportunity for peace in Ukraine, but that didn’t stop wheat fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Market Commentary: The Calendar Is Not in Control
Energy: Risk Over Rules Fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight. Tehran accused U.S. forces of striking a residential area after U.S. Central Command said its second round of attacks in three days targeted Iranian radar systems and mi...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 August 2026 During the fourth week of August, the Russian grain market continued to slide, although the pace of the decline slowed. The immediate market reaction and collapse in export activity have placed significant pressure on farmers. Price declines vary b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
Market Commentary: Contract Highs to Start September; Demand Destruction is the Point
What You Need to Know Today: The EPA offered an extension for 2025 RSF compliance reporting from 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026 and announced decisions on requests to exempt 34 small refineries from the requirements. The U.S. is stepping up attacks against Iran after two tankers carrying c...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt, at the end of July, is once again the largest importer of maize from Brazil at about 2.6 million MT from January to July — followed by Iran at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 665,000 MT, Saudi Arabia at 435,000 MT, and Israel at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift on Profit Taking but Trend-Higher Regime Remains in Place
What You Need to Know Today: End-of-month profit taking sent the CBOT broadly lower, though corn and soybeans managed to post small gains to continue their rallies. Turkey’s foreign ministry claimed to have a plan to ensure safe passage for both Ukrainian and Russian grain vessels via th...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 31 August)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Tightening Supplies and Strong Demand Fuel a Grain Market Rally
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean prices rallied sharply last week as declining U.S. production expectations collided with strong demand, raising the prospect of tighter supplies and leaving the market with a smaller margin for further yield losses. The USDA’s lower August yield estimates...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The 2026/27 Argentine corn planting outlook remains broadly stable, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projecting 8.4 Mha, unchanged from 2025/26. Regional shifts are expected to largely offset each other, with lower acreage in the NOA and NEA due to renewed concerns over Dalbu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: After Bullish Week, WPI Bias is Higher but Risk Management More Important
What You Need to Know Today: Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all formed new contract or at least rally highs to close what has become one of the most uniformly bullish weeks in CBOT history. Escalations in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and attacks on civilian merchant vessels show n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: When Bottlenecks Move Markets
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Export, Yield, and Attack Headlines Drive Grains to New Highs
What You Need to Know Today: The day belonged to the bulls as fund buying and technical momentum boosted corn, soybeans, and wheat to new rally or contract highs. Wheat futures exploded Wednesday around the world after Russia indicated it will increase its attacks on Ukrainian export infrastru...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the third week of August as the Black Sea blockade severely disrupted export logistics. The resulting loss of export capacity is pressuring domestic prices and increasing storage concerns as the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3775/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Trade Dominates as Yields, Supplies Face Threats
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean crop ratings declined late Monday and set the stage for stronger CBOT trade Tuesday. Funds are in risk-on mode across the ag space, resulting in firm trade and solid gains for grains and oilseeds. Iran and Oman released a joint statement saying the...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco is reported to be resuming soft wheat imports on 16 September 2026, ending the three-month ban on imports that had begun on 1 June 2026. The government will announce the details of the 2026 wheat support program shortly. N...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.995/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, up $2.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Yield Assessments Drive CBOT Reactions; Cattle Fall on Beef Import News
What You Need to Know Today: Pro Farmer’s crop tour pegged the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 173.2 BPA and anticipated a 15.344 Bbu crop – both figures well below expectations. Pro Farmer forecast 2026 U.S. soybean yields at 53.3 BPA, above most private estimates and USDA’s August W...
Gene Editing Offers a New Path for Crop Development
Key Takeaways: Gene editing makes targeted changes to a plant’s existing DNA, while genetic modification can introduce genetic material from another organism to create traits not naturally present in the crop. Gene editing is unlikely to replace genetic modification entirely, as the two...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued to face delays due to high grain moisture and poor field conditions in some areas. Despite elevated moisture levels, an increasing number of farmers began harvesting as crop losses and lodging emerged. Harvest progress has now surpassed 80 percent b...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Concerns about U.S. corn and soybean yields and continued disruptions in the Black Sea drove a week of bullish activity at the CBOT. Managed money traders bought 127,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 29 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the buyin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.085/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.395/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.8/short ton, up $2 from ye...
Market Commentary: Bullish Momentum Continues for Corn and Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: There has already been a strong run of flash soybean sales announcements in recent weeks, but more than 1.4 MMT reported this morning is an exceptionally large single-day total with major implications for the market. If the sales to China and unknown destinations w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.035/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.365/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, down $1.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results Point to Lower Yield Potential
What You Need to Know Today: Day three of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found corn yield potential below last year in both Illinois and western Iowa. Illinois corn yields averaged 184.2 bushels/acre, down from 199.6 bushels/acre last year and the 199.2 bushels/acre three-year average, while wester...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.98/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.975/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3725/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $325.6/short ton, up $6.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: Pressure Moves, Markets Reprice the Risk
Macro: Treasury Squeezes Yields, the Dollar Gives Way Today’s markets are offering a lesson in pressure: it rarely disappears — it simply moves. The U.S. Treasury stepped into the bond market after long-term yields surged to levels not seen in nearly two decades. By announcing plans...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to weaken sharply during the second week of August as the Black Sea logistics situation deteriorated. Russia and Ukraine continued exchanging drone and ballistic attacks on seaports, infrastructure and commercial...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.8/short ton, up $0.1 fr...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Hints at Rally Doubts
What You Need to Know Today: Declining crop conditions ratings and shaky results from the Pro Farmer crop tour sent grains sharply higher on Tuesday. The Pro Farmer tour in Ohio pegged the state yield at 180.18 BPA, about 5.5 BPA below the tour’s 2025 estimate. Similarly, the Pro Farmer...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is the largest importer of Brazilian maize in the first six months of 2026. Egypt imported about 28.4 percent of maize exports, or about 1.7 million MT. Iran was the third-largest importer at 14.5 percent, or 900,000 MT, fol...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises as Crop Tours Start and Weather Forecasts Shift
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. weather is getting more attention this week as conditions vary greatly across the western, central, and eastern corn belts, with the different regions battling dryness and too much rain simultaneously. The ProFarmer Crop Tour began today in Indiana and Nebrask...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather and pre-WASDE positioning last week overrode the Black Sea export and allowed bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT for the second straight week. Managed money traders sold 63,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 12.5 percent in the proce...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.895/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.16/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $2.4 from yeste...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest progress has fallen further behind the normal pace, with the latest estimate showing more than 15 percentage points of delay versus previous years. Excessive grain moisture and poor road conditions continue to limit field access and slow harvest act...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: Russia Resists Black Sea Truce, Cattle Processing Consolidating Further
What You Need to Know Today: Russia rejected calls for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, including a proposal to halt attacks on civilian shipping that could help restore grain flows from Ukrainian ports. Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close its Joslin, Illinois, beef processing facili...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8225/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Market Commentary: Potential Black Sea Deal Could Reshape Global Grain Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: Wholesale inflation was flat in July, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unchanged versus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. Core PPI rose 0.2 percent, also below expectations. The softer inflation data has reduced the odds of a September interest rate incre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, up $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.5275/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8325/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, up $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: From Headlines to Hard Numbers
Macro: Relief Meets Reality July’s CPI report matched expectations. Headline inflation eased to 3.4 percent year over year, while core inflation declined to 2.5 percent. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.1 percent and core increased 0.2 percent. Equities and the U.S. dollar traded h...
Black Sea and EU Export Discussion
One of the curious developments from the August WASDE was USDA’s handling of the European, Russian, and Ukrainian corn and wheat balance sheets. The EU has battled significant drought and heat this year, while Russia and Ukraine are increasingly locked in a battle for control over the Bla...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WASDE Wheat - August 2026
USDA’s August WASDE outlook for 2026/27 reduced U.S. wheat supplies on lower production, which is forecast at 1,531 million bushels, down 5 million from last month on decreased harvested area and yield. U.S. ending stocks of total wheat were reduced 5 million bushels to 717 million and ar...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the first week of August following the closure of the Azov and Don ports and restrictions on Black Sea trade linked to the war in Ukraine. Regular air attacks on infrastructure and vessels have fur...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3025/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6875/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $310.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Larger Global Supply Fears Send CBOT Lower Ahead of WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast 2027 U.S. WTI crude oil at $65.39/brl, up about $5 from the prior forecast. President Trump late Monday claimed the U.S. has swept the entire Strait of Hormuz (SOH) for sea mines. Iran’s security council said...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s annual urban consumer inflation rate is at 14.9 percent for July 2026, up from 14.3 percent in June. Nationwide annual inflation stands at 13.0 percent. Pakistan’s wheat and wheat flour prices continue to move...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather overrode the Black Sea export impacts in last week’s trade and left more bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT. Managed money traders sold 65,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 11 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.405/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.795/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $1.8...
Market Commentary: WASDE, Black Sea, and Iran Offer Offsetting Effects on Grain Futures
What You Need to Know Today: Tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend with Iran demanding the U.S. make multiple concessions that are likely non-starters before traffic can flow through the Strait of Hormuz again. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a mutual defense agreeme...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Weather continues to dominate the Argentine grain market. Rainfall persisted across much of the country’s agricultural region during the week, accompanied by unusually warm temperatures. As a result, soil moisture profiles remain fully recharged across most production areas. The...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7625/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.4/short ton, down $3.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Attention Turns to August WASDE Yield Estimates
What You Need to Know Today: Traders are increasingly focused on next Wednesday’s August WASDE report, with corn and soybean yield estimates expected to drive the next major move in grain markets. Recent crop condition declines and late-July heat have increased uncertainty around USDA&rs...
WPI August Grain Balance Sheet Projections
Key Takeaways: WPI’s 2025/26 corn export models continue to reflect strong international demand and put the total marketing year volume slightly above USDA’s estimates. Strong old crop corn exports are offset by weaker feed and residual use, leaving ending stocks slightly ele...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Awaiting New Catalysts
What You Need to Know Today: Iran has developed an initial draft plan that would prohibit U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to global energy trade. Although no restrictions have been enacted, the proposal adds anot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.6/short ton, up $1 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7475/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.8 f...
Market Commentary: Caution Beneath the Headlines
There are plenty of major headlines moving across the markets today, but the reaction beneath them remains cautious. Crude oil is holding steady despite reports of progress involving the Strait of Hormuz, corn and soybeans remain tied to changing weather forecasts, and wheat continues to weigh...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 July 2026 Russian grain prices declined sharply during the week under review as new-crop supplies entered the market and demand weakened. Corn and barley prices declined, while both milling and feed wheat and rye experienced larger losses. The harvest campaign...
Market Commentary: Improved Weather Outlook, Possible Iran Deal Send Grains, Oil Lower
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. and Iran could “today or tomorrow” reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the Secretary’s claims, an attack on a vessel off the Omani coast suggests plenty of risk remains in forming a lo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.385/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7775/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.4/short ton, down $3.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region TMO, the Turkish Grain Board, has announced that milling wheat exports were allowed as of 29 July due to “sufficient domestic supplies.” All milling wheat exports will require approval of an export application; approva...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Halts, U.S. Weather Risks Send CBOT Higher
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump suspended the planned attacks on Iran and announced that the pieces for a framework for peace were in place in a weekend social media post. Iran, however, later said no efforts were underway to conduct negotiations with the U.S., though Oman indicat...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The escalating impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks in the Black Sea continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 122,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 27 percent in the process. The biggest d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0.4 from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina's corn harvest has reached 69.8 percent of the national harvestable area. Harvest progress remains constrained primarily in southeastern Buenos Aires, where persistently high humidity has slowed grain dry-down and prevented moisture levels from reaching harvest standards. As a re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3925/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Record Soyoil Demand Contrasts With Grain Market Weakness
What You Need to Know Today: Record biofuel demand continues to support soyoil values, as EIA data show that May soyoil usage as a biofuel feedstock reached a record 1.434 billion pounds. The latest data reinforces the strength of renewable fuel demand and helps explain ongoing investment in a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.685/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.8875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.8/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Cattle Outperform Hogs on Quiet Day for Corn and Soy
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran resumed missile strikes after a brief pause in fighting, raising concerns that the five-month conflict could expand across the Middle East. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles, Kuwait reported a fatal strike, and drone attacks damaged two natural...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7175/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9275/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, dow...
Market Commentary: War Moves Oil. Weather Moves Grain.
If Wednesday’s trade proved anything, it is that not every market is listening to the same headline. Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran sent crude oil sharply higher after Iran fired ballistic missiles at an American airbase in Jordan. President Trump promised a U.S. response, pus...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 July 2026 Bearish sentiment dominated the Russian grain market as the new harvest accelerated and supplies increased. Prices also weakened in eastern Russia ahead of harvest, reflecting expectations of ample supplies and Kazakhstan's import ban on Russian whea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.805/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.8/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally as Crop Ratings Fall; Global Shipping Becomes More Perilous
What You Need to Know Today: Shipping in the Black Sea is at a standstill, with neither Ukraine nor Russia yet ready to swerve in this game of maritime and export brinkmanship. Israeli media suggests the U.S. and Iran may be close to making a deal or at least restoring the memorandum of unders...
Banning Glyphosate Could be Expensive
The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement has reached a critical point after the Supreme Court ruled on 25 June that Bayer is shielded from state-level lawsuits because federal regulation does not require the company to warn of alleged cancer risks from such products. Thousands of "failure...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco and Kazakhstan are looking at ways to expand their grain import/export programs, according to details of a recent meeting in Casablanca. Kazakhstan has grain (mainly wheat) and flour exports of 15.3 MMT and is looking at n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.6/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.1375/bushel, down $0.3975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.1/short ton, down $11.1...
Market Commentary: Commodity Sell-Off on Middle East De-escalation and Border Reopening
What You Need to Know Today: It was just one of those days where seemingly everything was in the red as part of a broader risk-off economic sentiment amid de-escalation headlines in the Middle East. Other key fundamentals were also bearish, including the resumption of Mexican cattle imports an...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina's wheat planting advanced another 5.7 percentage points over the past week, reaching 97.7 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares despite persistent rainfall across the country's agricultural region. Planting is now complete in the western production areas and the Northern...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.2/short ton, up $3.3 from yes...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Headlines Shake Wheat Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The Trump administration announced new tariffs of 10 percent to 12.5 percent on imports from 60 major U.S. trading partners as part of a Section 301 action aimed at combating forced labor in global supply chains. Countries that have agreed to adopt and enforce bans...
Little Hope for Rumored Black Sea Civilian Vessel Agreement
Key Takeaways: Grain futures pulled back sharply in overnight trade Friday on rumors that Ukraine proposed two possible options for ensuring civilian vessel safety in the Black Sea. Both Russia and Ukraine have recently targeted civilian vessels carrying oil and grain in the Sea of Azov...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.9625/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $331.9/short ton, down $1 f...
Market Commentary: Oil Surge, Weather Risks and Export Demand Drive Grain Market Strength
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices surged today following reports of tanker attacks off the coast of Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels and renewed U.S. threats to escalate military strikes against Iran, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Brent crud...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8475/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $7.0575/bushel, up $0.2775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.39/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $332.9/short ton, up $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Wild Wednesday: Weather, War and Worry
Grains posted strong gains today, putting the bulls firmly in the driver’s seat. There was no shortage of fuel for the move, with three W’s driving the rally: weather, war and worry. Weather: Cooler temperatures are temporarily easing stress across the Northern Plains and Midwest, b...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 July 2026 New-crop trading dominated the Russian grain market during the week as old-crop business largely came to an end. Most transactions shifted to new-crop supplies, establishing new price ranges across the market. Bearish sentiment prevailed across most...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.78/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2275/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $327.3/short ton, up $3.5 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Momentum, Weather; Soybeans Sag on Quiet Exports
What You Need to Know Today: Grain futures fell hard overnight after the USDA’s Crop Conditions report showed better-than-expected ratings for corn and soybeans, despite difficult weather last week. The Conditions report was even more bearish in light of meaningfully beneficial rains acr...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan has just held its first meeting of the Committee on GM Corn. The Committee was established to "undertake an objective, science-based, and evidence-driven review of Pakistan’s policy regarding the commercialization o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.73/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.74/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2625/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, up $5.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Pop on China Buying; Weather Fuels Corn Rally; Cattle Score Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate with the two sides exchanging attacks over the weekend. President Trump said Iran “will pay” for recent attacks that claimed the lives of U.S. troops stationed in Jordan. There are some signs...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally in conjunction with the resumption of the war in Iran and the export-tightening impacts of Russia and Ukraine’s recent attacks and counter attacks continues to drive bullish CBOT sentiments. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expandin...
Russia’s Diesel Export Ban Tightens Global Fuel Markets and Raises Agricultural Costs
Key Takeaways: Russia’s diesel export ban is tightening global fuel supplies and increasing dependence on alternative exporters. Limited refining capacity and logistical constraints make diesel markets especially sensitive to supply disruptions. Diesel supply disruptions are more difficu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Harvest delays continue to complicate Argentina's corn market. Persistently high humidity, combined with scattered rainfall across key producing regions, continues to slow harvest progress. In southern Buenos Aires, harvesting remains constrained by poor field access, while across central...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.03/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.5/short ton, down $3.9 from ye...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Tensions Driving Markets
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes, with the U.S. hitting Iranian bridges, energy sites, and military infrastructure. Iran launched a missile into Kuwait that damaged a desalination plant. Crude oil futures surged on heightened Middle East tensions, providing supp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.95/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, up $2.4...
Market Commentary: Cattle Markets Remain Under Pressure, China Buys More Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Iran warned that it will retaliate against the U.S. if American strikes target Iranian infrastructure, as President Trump has threatened to do next week if negotiations between the two nations do not resume. President Trump is scheduled to deliver a primetime addre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $3.7 from yes...
Market Commentary: The Bulls Are Back in Town?
After spending much of the year searching for a reason to stay, the bulls suddenly have several. Grain markets have strengthened, wheat is leading the charge, outside markets are becoming more supportive, and geopolitical and weather risks are once again demanding attention. Does that mean the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 July 2026 New-crop price formation remained underway during the week, with bearish price movement concentrated in southern Russia and the Volga Valley, where harvest begins first and export access is strongest. Price volatility remains elevated across producing...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Conditions Data; Wheat Reverses the Reversal
What You Need to Know Today: Attacks between the U.S. and Iran intensified overnight and the U.S. Central Command reported that the U.S. naval blockade against Iran will begin at 3:00 PM CDT Tuesday. President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all shipping traffic, except Iran. In an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.45/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.91/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.3/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria's new Russian logistics hub at Tartous port is expected to be operational by the end of July. It is expected to handle 250,000 MT of cargo per month, including wheat and other grains. Initial shipments are expected to be Rus...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weather rally continues to shift fund positioning and sentiment from its former bearish posture to a far more bullish configuration. Managed money traders purchased 93,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 98 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the...
Market Commentary: Reassessing Weather and Geopolitical Risks
What You Need to Know Today: Rising hostilities and an end to any semblance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran created geopolitical risk-off trade in macroeconomic markets, though the CBOT seemed immune. President Trump announced the U.S. military would resume its naval blockade on Iran...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.3525/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315/short ton, down $3.7 fro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina's wheat planting advanced another 7 percentage points over the past week, with 87.9 percent of the projected 6.5 Mha now seeded. Planting is entering its final stage across the central and northern production regions, except for parts of north-central Santa Fe, where excessive s...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
Ag Perspectives Quant - WPI's data-driven look at ag market fundamentals - presents the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which WPI feels are...
WASDE Corn - July 2026
USDA’s July WASDE outlook for 2026/27 reduced total U.S. corn ending stocks by 170 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average farm price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.40 per bushel. Foreign corn production was cut due to record heat in France. If realized, French pr...
WASDE Wheat - July 2026
USDA’s July WASDE outlook for 2026/27 reduced total U.S. wheat production by 7 million bushels from last month to 1,536 million – which is the lowest U.S. wheat production since 1970/71. The result is that projected 2026/27 ending stocks are 722 million bushels, which is down 22 per...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.4025/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9075/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, up $3.3 from y...
Market Commentary: Bullish WASDE and Sea of Azov Strikes Lift Grains
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat prices surged after Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels and infrastructure disrupted grain shipments, halting traffic through the Sea of Azov, Kerch Strait, and Black Sea. The July WASDE report offered a modestly supportive outlook for corn, wheat, and soybe...
Wheat's Declining, Millers Keep Milling
Every June combines begin their annual sweep across the winter wheat fields of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. At the same time, USDA releases its Acreage and Crop Progress reports, providing the first comprehensive look at the size and condition of the crop. Most years the reports simply confirm...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.52/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.1975/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.815/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $4.2 fr...
Market Commentary: The Market Is Always Looking Ahead
Weather remains the dominant driver of grain markets this time of year, but this week's trade has been a reminder that futures markets are constantly looking ahead. Corn and soybean prices don't simply react to today's weather — they respond to where traders believe production risks will...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.0775/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risk Back in Play
What You Need to Know Today: President Trump claimed the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was over, as both sides accused one another of violating the terms of the agreement. Commercial vessels are increasingly steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz as security risks escalate following Iran...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 June-3 July 2026 The new marketing season has officially begun in Russia, although bearish sentiment has been concentrated in the southern regions closest to the Black Sea ports, where export demand has been weakest. Delays in grain deliveries to inland elevators have...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.185/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9775/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $316.5/short ton, up $3 from ye...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Amid Weather Market; U.S. Revokes Iran’s Oil Licenses
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Why Middle Eastern and North African Wheat Demand Remains a Key Driver of Global Trade
Key Takeaways: The Middle East and North Africa's arid climate and limited water resources have created a structural dependence on imported wheat. Government wheat tenders in major importing countries serve as important benchmarks for global trade, providing insight into exporter competitivene...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Bangladesh is reported to have finalized the purchase of 270,000 MT of wheat, including 220,000 MT of U.S. wheat. The U.S. wheat is priced at $322/MT, with an additional 50,000 MT of wheat at $297.90/MT through an international te...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9225/bushel, up $0.445 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, up $9.1 from...
Market Commentary: Weather Risk Materializes
What You Need to Know Today: This time of year, grain markets are often just one weather forecast away from a sharp rally, and today's hotter, drier outlook provided the catalyst for significant gains in corn and soybean futures. Livestock markets were relatively quiet by comparison, with most...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina's corn harvest has reached 52.9 percent of the national harvestable area, with an average yield of 8.15 MT/ha. Harvest continues at a moderate pace because of high grain and field moisture, particularly across central and southern Buenos Aires Province. Over the past se...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Trading Cools Off After an Eventful Report Week
What You Need to Know Today: The June jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k jobs, less than the 115k jobs expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The labor force participation rate dropped by 0.3 percent to 61.5 percent, the lowest since March 2021, and the lowest in 50 ye...
U.S. Exports to Cuba: It’s About Displacement
As Cuba's economic crisis has deepened, discussions about the country's eventual economic and political transition have reemerged. One question that inevitably follows is what opportunities might emerge for U.S. agricultural exports. So, here’s a brief review of those opportunities, but n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4925/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: New Month, New Trade?
Key Market Insights July is here, and the grain markets already feel like they are shifting gears. With the June USDA reports now behind us, inflation is back in the conversation, and traders are once again turning their attention to three familiar summer drivers: demand, money flow, and weathe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 June 2026 The Russian grain market remained volatile during the week as farmers continued to hold old-crop supplies while new-crop availability remained limited. The ruble weakened nearly 5 percent against the U.S. dollar during the week, supporting domestic grain p...
Summary of Futures
Sep 26 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, up $0 from...
Market Commentary: Acreage, Stocks Surprises Send Corn, Wheat Higher; Fund Selling Likely to Subside
What You Need to Know Today: The surprises from the USDA’s Acreage report were a sharp reduction in winter wheat area from the March Prospective Plantings estimates and a larger-than-expected increase in corn area. The Grain Stocks report offered relatively few surprises, but quarterly d...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Oman Flour Mills has begun its 2026 purchases of locally produced wheat. The mill runs a government-supported program that it says strengthens the country’s food supply. The program is said to “improve farming practice...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.02/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.39/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.7/short ton, down $2.3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Downside Risks Rise as Funds Pad Bearish Bets, Corn Hits New Lows
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to pause hostilities to allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz this week (theoretically, at least). There were some rumors of a possible Chinese blockade against Taiwan. Analysts are looking for the largest U.S. 1 June cor...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina's corn harvest continued to advance at a moderate-to-slow pace, constrained by high moisture levels in both the grain and the fields. Harvest delays remain concentrated in the remaining early-planted corn in central and southern Buenos Aires. To date, harvesting has rea...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate CBOT trade, which last week resulted in the ag markets seeing another period consecutive net liquidation. Managed money traders liquidated another 84,000 contracts (42 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the largest net l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5625/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $307/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Acreage Report Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices dropped sharply with traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. There were reports that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman, which would be a violation of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Pr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1475/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.015/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $308.2/short ton, up $4.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: Focus Turns to New Crop Export Sales
What You Need to Know Today: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Bayer secured a favorable Suprem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.35/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.7 fro...
Market Commentary: The Battle for Support
Key Market Insights Outside markets dominated today’s session. Crude oil traded below $70 per barrel, the U.S. dollar climbed to a 13-month high, and both gold and silver posted sharp declines as traders increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 June 2026 The Russian grain market moved lower this week as prices declined across all grain categories ahead of the end of the marketing year. Weakness was observed in both European Russia and the Asian regions, where markets continue to track bearish sentiment in...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.0975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $5.97/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4175/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302.9/short ton, up $3.1...
Market Commentary: Searching for Something New
What You Need to Know Today: There is a global rotation out of tech stocks right now amid profit-taking and expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. The White House said Iran will use its upcoming unsanctioned oil revenue to buy U.S. agricultural products, a claim that Iran later s...
Argentina’s Agricultural Export Tax Reform at Risk
Key Takeaways: Argentina is a major global agricultural exporter, but producer returns have historically been constrained by export taxes. Export taxes have been a long-standing policy tool since 1955, reintroduced in 2002 after Argentina’s financial crisis, and have since remained a key...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Egypt’s wheat market is very quiet due to good stocks and low demand. Private sector millers are using local wheat production. Egypt’s maize imports have picked up this week, with shipment...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continue to hold broadly bearish sentiments resulted in the ag markets as last week marked another in a string of consecutive net liquidation periods. Managed money traders liquidated another 105,000 contracts (35 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.415/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, down $1.5...
Market Commentary: Mixed Macro Signals Keeping Grains Rangebound
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days after “productive talks” with Iran in Switzerland over the weekend. Chevron and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement to develop Project Kilby, a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina's wheat planting campaign advanced 13.4 percentage points week over week. Despite limited rainfall, low temperatures, and elevated atmospheric humidity, soil recovery remains slow across the southern agricultural belt, where field access for machinery continues to be constrained...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Sep 26 Wheat closed at $6.14/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4275/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary: Selling Across Most Commodities After Hawkish Fed
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.1275/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.32/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0 from yest...
Market Commentary: Markets on Pins & Needles
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Naturally Resilient Crops Are Key to Drought Mitigation
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 June 2026 The Russian grain market was highly volatile during the week. The export market, the primary driver of domestic prices, remained stagnant, and bearish sentiment persisted. Weaker demand and expectations for a strong upcoming harvest encouraged exporters to...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.96/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $2.8 from...
Market Commentary: China Buying Rumors Lift Soybeans; Cattle Rise on Beef Demand Hopes
What You Need to Know Today: American and Mexican officials met Tuesday and will meet again Wednesday for another round of trade talks, where ag and energy will be a key topic. Another round is scheduled for 20 July. Ag groups are urging President Trump to renew USMCA for another 16 years, but...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Wheat stocks in Egypt are at good levels, with only limited import interest. However, there is some concern over the supply of wheat from the Black Sea later in the year due to current weather problem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.155/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1925/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $302/short ton, up $0.7 from...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall across most of Argentina's agricultural regions during the past week slowed the pace of 2026/27 wheat planting. Even so, planting progress has reached 44.2 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares, following a weekly advance of 11.8 percentage points. Fieldwork was concentra...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.135/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Quiet Trade Follows WASDE as Livestock Sector Faces Capacity Shifts
What You Need to Know Today: It was a quiet trading day across major agricultural commodities, with most contracts closing within 1 percent of the previous day's settlement. Trading volumes for corn and the soy complex were lighter than earlier in the week, as traders were positioning before a...
WASDE Wheat - June 2026
USDA’s June outlook for 2026/27 reduced the U.S. average wheat yield by 0.5 bushels per acre to 47.0 bushels and ending stocks are reduced 18 million bushels to 744 million. However, U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 775 million bushels The result is 2026/27 season-average farm price is...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8675/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.15/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.7/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: June WASDE Light on Major Balance Sheet Changes
What You Need to Know Today: The June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations, with no major market-altering changes to the balance sheets. The Producer Price Index rose by 1.1 percent month-over-month in May 2026, exceeding economist estimates of a 0.7 percent rise. The annual head...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.875/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.23/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.9/short ton, up $0.8 from...
Market Commentary: The Return of Risk Premium
Key Market Insights Macro Markets: Inflation and Iran Reenter the Conversation Just when the grain trade had become comfortable focusing almost exclusively on weather, two major macro stories returned to the spotlight this morning: inflation and Iran. May CPI came in hotter than expected, with...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 June 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing the first signs of the new season. The shift became visible on export trading platforms as global bearish sentiment intensified, supported by improving crop expectations across Russia's sou...
Summary of Futures
Jul 26 Corn closed at $4.195/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1375/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $301.1/short ton, down $1.6 fr...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Stabilization Continues, But What Next?
What You Need to Know Today: Early Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Secretary said vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising in a “very meaningful way.” Tuesday afternoon, however, President Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormu...
China Market Analysis
Miscellaneous Initial excitement over China’s pledges to buy American farm products has faded, as no purchases have immediately materialized. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet its purchase commitments from the U.S., but market conditions and tra...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s currency has weakened in the past few weeks as higher energy costs related to the US/Iran conflict have pushed import prices up. Imports are paid mainly in US dollars and demand for the dollar has caused the Egyptian...