Transportation and Export Report - January 15, 2026
WPI is pleased to the second week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building o...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future
Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the media rather than preordained by the Court itself. Today came and went without such an announcement. The fundamental issue for the Court is whet...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 14 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday, the first of the year. Beef production is still down compared to 2024, but projections were raised for 2026. Beef production was raised as heavier slaughter weights more than offset the reduction i...
Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added area to the soybean harvested and made a bearish cut to U.S. wheat demand, moves which sent all of the major commodity futures markets sharply...
WASDE Corn - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for larger production and higher feed residual usage to result in greater ending stocks: Corn production is estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million acre ris...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
Mercosure Regional Analysis
CORN Corn planting progress has reached nearly 90 percent of projected area. Almost 70 percent of the corn crops is going through the critical growth stage. Crops are beginning to experience a lack of wáter after many days of intense heat and wind. , Fields are starting to appear stresed...
WASDE Soybeans - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is increased by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oi...
Venezuela Oil Situation and Oil Price Impacts
The world woke up on 3 January to news of the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela. Few expected this move from the U.S. administration, but in hindsight it may not have been surprising. The Biden administration had placed a $25 million bounty on Maduro through t...
New World Screw Worm: A Threat to Dairy?
The dairy industry continues to evolve, though it is facing new challenges. Through September, milk production is up 97 pounds per head in 2025 over 2024 and has increased steadily for several years. Further, there is a migration in dairy cows, with the southern plains growing in cow numbers. T...
Oilseed Highlights: Oilseed Demand Slumps while Vegoils Rise
The Market With just two days left before the January WASDE, the soy complex is trading above week-ago levels, but that fact belies the weakness that has enveloped the market since late November. Skepticism over China’s long-term commitment to U.S. soybean purchases – especial...
Transportation and Export Report - 7 January
WPI is pleased to announce the acquisition of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building on the best-in-class i...
Market Commentary: Export Chatter Lifts Soymeal, Soybeans; Weather Worries Boost Wheat
The CBOT renewed its early-week strength at mid-week and turned higher with soybeans and soymeal in the lead. Fresh news was light for the day, but markets responded positively to rumors of export business getting done for soybeans and soymeal, with wheat gaining on an increasingly warm and les...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Crude Oil and Short Covering; Cattle Tempest Now Tempered
Ag markets were higher with support coming from a rally in crude oil and broader energy markets after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president from power over the weekend. The move has direct bullish implications for crude oil supplies in the near term, which should help broader commodity m...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The holiday period did not slow harvest. As of 30 December 2025, wheat harvest reached 93 percent of total area. Yields above expectations led the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to raise its crop estimate to 27.8 MMT, in line with other estimates and similar to general market expectations. T...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Fail to Excite Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Down on Technical Trade
The CBOT traded mostly lower on Tuesday with funds remaining dedicated sellers. The motivation for their selling stems partially from pre-holiday risk-off trading and partially from the technical weakness enveloping the charts. Corn was the downside leader for the second straight day, though ob...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Profit Tanking Sink CBOT
Grains and oilseeds nearly all traded lower to start the week with profit taking driving most of the action as the CBOT enters another holiday-shortened week. The only market to finish higher was soyoil, where a geopolitical tension driving bounce in crude oil helped support the vegoil. Improve...
Market Commentary: Grains Give up Gains while Cattle Turn Higher on Cash Trade
The CBOT saw its typical low-volume post-Christmas trading session on Friday, but low trading volume didn’t stop the markets from making some notable technical moves. The first of which, on a broad scale, is that early strength in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat, all f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 13.1 percent week-over-week, reaching 73 percent of total area, with yields remaining above average and above earlier expectations. As a result, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its production estimate to 27.1 MMT, broadly in line with the Rosario Board of Trade&rsq...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Wheat, Soybeans Fall Further
Bears were once again in charge of the CBOT on Wednesday, though they temporarily relinquished control of the corn market to bulls. Funds were aggressive sellers again in soybeans, soymeal, and wheat futures amid bearish fundamentals for each of the commodities and pushed wheat to a new contrac...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Buying Demand; Livestock Futures Buying Time
Bears were in control of the CBOT again on Monday with technical pressure and bearish fundamental headlines driving prices lower. Soybeans and wheat were the downside leaders for the day as funds accelerated their exit from long positions in these markets amid the chart weakness. Corn futures s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
EXPORT TAXES The government announced last week a permanent reduction in export taxes on major agricultural products. The revised rates are as follows: Soybeans: 26 percent to 24 percent Byproducts: 24.5 percent to 22.5 percent Wheat and barley: 9.5 percent to 7.5 percent Corn and sorghum: 9.5...
Market Commentary: China Buys While Timeline Changes; Wheat Drops on Export Outlook
Once again, the headlines for CBOT trade revolved around news from China, this time in support of both bulls and bears. Bulls benefited from the news of “flash” export sales of 17 Mbu to China and unknown destinations, which was an obvious encouragement to the market. One of the rea...
WASDE Corn - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average corn price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $4.00 per bushel. Global corn stocks are down 2.2 million to 279.2 million tons...
WASDE Wheat - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average wheat price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $5.00 per bushel. Global wheat stocks rose 3.4 million tons to 274.9 million, mainly on increases for several exporting countries...
WASDE Soybeans - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average prices are presently unchanged for U.S. soybeans at $10.50 per bushel, for soymeal at $300 per short-ton, and for soyoil at 53 cents per pound. Global soybean ending stocks are increased 0.4 million tons to 122.4 million, m...
Trump Announces Farm Bailout
President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs. The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest progressed by 11.5 percent during the week, lifting completion to 45 percent of the harvestable area. Fieldwork moved across the central agricultural region at a normal pace, with yields continuing to surpass historical averages. Most of the remaining standing area was either dryi...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australia and the Pacific with Brazil and West Africa seeing demand for LH December and January positions. Panamax markets were firmer with growing...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3.8 percentage points this week, bringing total progress to 20 percent of the area. Yields continued to perform well, and given tight margins after recent price declines, most harvested volumes exceeded breakeven levels. In the core production region,...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase heading into 2026. China has purchased about 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans out of their commitment to purchase 12 MMT in December and January. Cape...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 4.9 percent week over week, reaching 16.5 percent of the suitable area. The national average yield continued to rise as combines moved through the core production zones, now at 2.6 MT/ha. In the highest-productivity regions, cutting was still limited, but early tests poin...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to decrease 10 million bushels to 290. The projected U.S. season-average soybean price received by farmers is increased 50 cents to $10.50 per bushel. The global ending stocks of soybeans is reduced 2.0 million tons to 122.0...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. corn ending stocks to increase 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The projected U.S. season-average corn price received by farmers is increased 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel; The global ending stocks of corn is reduced slightly to 281.3 million ton...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price received by farmers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00. The global ending stocks of total wheat increased to 271.4 million; This is the firs...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late November and early December. Despite hopes to the contrary, there has been essentially no confirmation of any U.S. grain export business to C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as high as 8 MT/ha. Optimism is high, and for some, the estimates of 22–23 MMT are starting to look conservative. However, there are still...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower with disappointment about the slow appearance of Chinese demand weighing on market sentiment. The U.S.-China trade deal was thought to be lik...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agricultural region, early planting is nearly complete, while some areas in the central and southern parts of Buenos Aires province still need...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest is gaining momentum in northern Argentina, with yields exceeding expectations. In the northwest, yields range from 0.8–1.5 MT/ha, above the five-year regional average of 0.82 MT/ha. In the northeast, current averages near 2.7 MT/ha surpass the previous record from...
Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation
Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. The winner was Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party and its coalition partners. The La Libertad Avanza party won 40.78 percent of th...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were mixed and relatively quiet this week. The Capesize sector traded steady on flagging spot demand despite an increase in Chinese iron ore demand and rising Dalian steel futures. The Panamax sector was the upside leader for the week, primarily due to Pacific demand. Freight m...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess moisture continues to hinder fieldwork in central and western Buenos Aires provinces. As a result, early planting will likely fall short of in...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked out magic" Trump said, with no details offered. As...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were mixed this past week with paper values rising as the Chinese holiday ended, but physical values seeing little of the same enthusiasm. Capesize freight rates were volatile last week after China’s port-fee announcement on 9 October. The fees, as expected, forced...
Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks
Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was $320 in today’s dollars. Futures across the board remain elevated, averaging about $380/cwt, an indication that tight supplies will l...
Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?
CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massive levels. The soybean crop was forecast at a record 177.6 MMT, up sharply from the prior year and easily the largest on record due to expand...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Although nearly 97 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated from normal to excellent, excessive rainfall in some areas is becoming a concern. Certain fields have been inaccessible for months, preventing necessary fieldwork. Fungal diseases are spreading, but farmers are still inve...
What Spreads and Basis Are Saying About Soybean Exports
The government shutdown has entered its tenth day, leaving the grain markets without two weeks of export data. Fortunately, the USDA AMS and FGIS continue to publish the weekly Export Inspections report, leaving the grain industry not totally blind to exports. Even so, that report covers only a...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are waiting to see how rates will react now that China’s Golden Week and South Korea’s holidays are both over. The Golden Week celebrations ended on Wednesday and, so far, dry bulk rates have not seen much upward movement. Panamax and Capesize vessels are slightly f...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 7.4 percentage points over the past week and reached 19.8 percent of the 7.8 MHa projected for the season. Favorable soil moisture continues to support early planting and put progress roughly 7 points ahead of last year. However, western, cent...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight rates cratered this week as China started its Golden Week holiday, which blanketed markets with calm and quiet. Pacific markets were especially dull and weaker, especially amid doubts about how China’s grain demand will play out after the holiday. China still has not book...
Can a Trade Deal Save U.S. 2025/26 Soybean Exports?
Wednesday’s headline in the ag markets was President Trump’s social media post that indicated soybeans will be on the agenda for his upcoming summit with President Xi. The news was the first significant acknowledgement by the administration since starting the trade war that it is ha...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
“Zero Export Taxes”: The Controversy in Argentina Ahead of the elections, the Argentine government faced urgent pressure to secure hard currency and stabilize the exchange rate. To do so, it temporarily eliminated export duties on grains and by-products, effective until 31 October 2...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are mixed this week as the Capesize sector saw renewed strength while Panamax and Supramax markets struggled to maintain rates. Capesize markets were higher on iron ore demand from west Australia with a steady flow of cargo bookings through the week. The improved booking...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
Market Commentary: Exports Drive Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as strong export demand – even in spite of Argentina’s temporary export tax cut – continues to drive the grain market outlook. Corn demand remains especially strong with Mexico booking another several cargoes overnight despite its own outl...
Argentina Suspends Export Tax on Soy
Yesterday, Argentina temporarily stopped its export tax on grains and co-products, as well as beef and poultry, something President Javier Milei had proposed during his campaign. The final decision, however, came as the country is desperate for U.S. dollars to shore up the flagging peso. Furthe...
Market Commentary: Negative Icing on a Bearish Cake; Cattle Rally as NWS Found 70 Miles from Border
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the week as markets had a negative reaction to surprising policy developments from South America. Argentina’s government announced a zero-export tax policy on grains through 31 October in an attempt to boost domestic reserves of U.S. dollars (for detail...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Tax Policy Update On Monday, 22 September, the Argentine government announced a temporary elimination of export duties on all grains and by-products. The measure will remain in effect until 31 October 2025, or until $7 billion in foreign currency inflows are reached, whichever...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were volatile last week but failed to settle on much of a direction. Capesize markets stabilized and seemed to be finding a little support, which helped stabilize other vessel sectors. Miners in the Pacific remain consistently active, which is supporting Capesize rates in the r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s 2024/25 corn harvest is virtually complete, with only isolated fields still being collected. Final output is expected to exceed 50 MMT. Attention now shifts to the 2025/26 crop, where planted area is projected at 7.8 million hectares — surpassed only by the 20...
WASDE Soybeans - Sep 2025
Soybeans – USDA’s Sep 2025 outlook is for higher U.S. ending stocks to 300 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average soybean price is forecast at $10.00 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal and the soybean oil prices are unchanged...
WASDE Wheat - Sep 2025
Wheat - USDA’s Sep 2025 outlook is for U.S. total wheat exports to increase by 25 million bushels to 900 million. That reduced ending stocks by 25 million bushels to 844 million - slightly less than last year. The projected 2025/26 seasonal average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushe...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Last week’s rainfall covered much of Argentina’s western wheat-growing region, improving prospects for cereals there. Still, 27.3 percent of the area now shows excess water — up from 7 percent the prior week — mainly in the east and south, where fungal diseas...
Brazil Retaliation to U.S. Tariffs
The Foreign Ministry of Brazil notified the U.S. today that it has directed its trade body, Camex, to investigate whether it can retaliate against the 50 percent tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on several goods imported from Brazil. The investigation will conducted be under a law pa...
New World Screwworm Human Case
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced only 1.3 percent this week, reaching 96 percent complete nationwide. The final stretch is always slower, and this year the harvest could extend into September as recent rains further delay fieldwork in Buenos Aires province. Farmer selling has...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize markets falling back after their recent rally while Panamax and Supramax values continue to firm. The Atlantic and Pacific markets saw diverging trends with the former seeing generally steady trade (except for spot positions) while the latter...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to show good development across most of the country. While some areas remain affected by flooding, favorable weather has helped reduce excess moisture in many fields. In the core region, July rainfall exceeded the historical average, leaving c...
WASDE Soybeans - August 2025
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean production for 2025/26 to 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average farm price for soybean is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean m...
WASDE Corn - August 2025
USDA’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is a record 188.8 bushels per acre, which is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. U.S. exports are increased 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion bushels. Regardless, U.S. ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2...
WASDE Wheat - August 2025
USDA increased their estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. Nevertheless, the 2025/26 season-average far...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat and Boosting Production Margins With 6.7 million hectares sown, the 2025/2026 season wheat crop has been planted and it marks one of Argentina’s most promising crops on record. Although some fields were waterlogged, more than 80 percent of the area had water conditions ranging from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in the core region in 40 years. While the improved soil moisture will be beneficial for corn planting that’s set to begin in about a month...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets The dry bulk market rally of the past two weeks has ended with rates turning softer this week. The Capesize sector – which lead the recent rally – is now leading the way lower with the Panamax sector in tow. The reason for the weaker rates is that fresh cargo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Export Tax Update The government this week announced a definitive — not temporary — reduction in export taxes for a series of agricultural products. Between January and July 2025, a temporary reduction had been in place. On 1 July, the export tax rates reverted to pr...
WPI Transportation Report
Dy Bulk Markets Again this week, the bullish story is the rapid rise in Capesize vessel freight values with demand for Australian iron ore driving most of the rally. The Aussies have seen strong demand for August shipments in particular, which is pushing the forward end of the curve highe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Taxes The topic of export taxes continues to spark debate in Argentina, particularly soybean taxes. The return to a 33 percent rate for soybeans has made planting unviable in large parts of the agricultural area. In corn, the increase of 3 percentage points is less impactful, and t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting is entering its final stage after a weekly advance of 12.7 percentage points at the national level, now covering 91 percent of the projected 6.7 million hectares. Regional progress of about 20 points was seen in areas previously delayed by surface wa...
WASDE Soybeans - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for increased ending stocks compared to last month: U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 was raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion on the assumption that demand for soybean oil for biofuel would increase. The U.S. seasonal average farm price of...
WASDE Corn - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. corn is a reduction in ending stocks from the June estimate of 1.75 billion bushels to 1.66 billion bushels. U.S. corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion; If realized, those exports would be record high. The seasonal average farm pr...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs, receiving a “tariff letter” with the threat of 50 percent tariffs. Imports from Brazil to the U.S. have faced a minimum 1...
WASDE Wheat - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. wheat production to increase 8 million bushels to 1,929 million bushels. However, the estimate for U.S. wheat exports is raised by 25 million b...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting now covers 78.2 percent of Argentina’s projected 6.7 million hectares after a weekly advance of 5.5 percentage points. Fieldwork slowed during the second half of June due to excess moisture from persistent rains, leaving progress 2.5 points behind the five-year...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of grains on the market, prices are bearish. However, the first cuts of wheat showed poor results and encouraged farmers to wait and see. The av...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The Argentine government has officially issued a decree extending the reduction of export taxes for wheat and barley, while restoring previous rates for corn, soybeans, and soybean by-products. Much of the agricultural sector remained hopeful until the last minute, amid rumors...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting advanced by 21.8 percentage points last week and now covers 60.3 percent of the projected 6.7 Mha for the 2025/26 season. This pace is above the historical average but remains 5 percentage points behind last year’s progress. In the core product...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize vessel rates initially pushing higher, but then failing on reduced coal, iron ore, and bauxite demand and shipments. Rates for Capes were particularly sensitive to China’s weakening coal import demand and the country&rsq...
Market Commentary: Grain Consolidation Begins while Cattle Correction Continues
With the notable exception of soyoil, the CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with funds covering shorts ahead of the midweek holiday amid a few bullish headlines. Wheat was the upside leader as harvest delays and quality concerns mount for the Southern Plains HRW crop amid persistent rains. Soyb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance slowly, with a weekly gain of less than 3 percent bringing nationwide progress to nearly 47 percent. Harvesting has begun in northwest Argentina with low but expected yields, while results are better in the Central-West region of Có...
WASDE Soybeans – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024/25 as higher soybean meal disappearance increases 2 percent due to greater pork and poultry production. I...
WASDE Corn – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies to create higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago due to increases in both area and yield. Planted area is estimated to be 95.3 million acres and yield is projected t...
WASDE Wheat – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected l...
Market Commentary: RFS Luck on Friday the 13th
Soybeans and soyoil were already spiking due to Israel’s attack on Iran and the bolt higher in the petroleum market and then the Trump Administration goosed it even higher by issuing a biofuel blend mandate of 24.02 billion gallons in 2026. It will be a record amount under the Renewable F...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat ahead of WASDE; Cattle and Beef Prices Running Red-Hot
Corn, wheat, and soybeans all traded higher overnight on growing optimism over the U.S.-China trade negotiations, though markets could not hold those gains. The talks in London made solid progress and negotiations are reportedly on track with the Geneva agreement that is allowing broader trade...
New Meat Giant Created in Brazil; Most of Revenue from U.S.
While the MAHA report from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. still cites consolidation in the meat packing sector, Brazil’s competition regulator, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), has approved a merger of two major Brazilian meat processors,...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather Forecasts while Livestock Futures Hit New Highs
Except for the livestock futures, which all hit new contract or record highs, the CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with favorable weather and bearish chart conditions driving the sentiment. The index fund roll ticked off its second of five days on Monday, so spreads and volumes patterns...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3.3 percentage points over the past week and reached 43.8 percent of the estimated area nationwide. Progress remains slow due to high grain moisture and inaccessible soils in some regions. Still, harvest pace is 8 points ahead of last year &mda...
Market Commentary: Strong Friday and an Upward Bound Week
If yesterday’s trading looked like uncertainty ultimately succumbing to the bulls, today’s trading opened with the bears fully in charge. Contracts opened lower and mostly stayed that way until late morning when there appeared to be an epiphany with the bulls and they took charge. I...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Margins Set to Rise; China Soymeal Prices Remain Weak
The Market U.S. soybean prices have mostly been treading water these past few weeks with neither bulls nor bears able to get the upper hand for more than a few days. Continued trade war worries and challenges building negotiations between the U.S. and China have contributed to recent weak...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while wheat futures drifted lower. Too, live cattle futures and July lean hogs both posted Turnaround Tuesdays as bulls became cautious with prices ne...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with only 40 percent of the total area harvested so far. The delay is no longer primarily due to the soybean harvest but is now driven by persistent high grain moisture and excess water in many fields. The m...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the key for markets going forward, but the Middle Kingdom has not seen any surge in bookings yet. The Baltic Dry indices were mixed this w...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...
Transportation and Export Report - January 15, 2026
WPI is pleased to the second week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report, which WPI recently acquired, will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building o...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future
Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the media rather than preordained by the Court itself. Today came and went without such an announcement. The fundamental issue for the Court is whet...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 14 January)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
WASDE Livestock
USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday, the first of the year. Beef production is still down compared to 2024, but projections were raised for 2026. Beef production was raised as heavier slaughter weights more than offset the reduction i...
Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added area to the soybean harvested and made a bearish cut to U.S. wheat demand, moves which sent all of the major commodity futures markets sharply...
WASDE Corn - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for larger production and higher feed residual usage to result in greater ending stocks: Corn production is estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million acre ris...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
Mercosure Regional Analysis
CORN Corn planting progress has reached nearly 90 percent of projected area. Almost 70 percent of the corn crops is going through the critical growth stage. Crops are beginning to experience a lack of wáter after many days of intense heat and wind. , Fields are starting to appear stresed...
WASDE Soybeans - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is increased by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oi...
Venezuela Oil Situation and Oil Price Impacts
The world woke up on 3 January to news of the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela. Few expected this move from the U.S. administration, but in hindsight it may not have been surprising. The Biden administration had placed a $25 million bounty on Maduro through t...
New World Screw Worm: A Threat to Dairy?
The dairy industry continues to evolve, though it is facing new challenges. Through September, milk production is up 97 pounds per head in 2025 over 2024 and has increased steadily for several years. Further, there is a migration in dairy cows, with the southern plains growing in cow numbers. T...
Oilseed Highlights: Oilseed Demand Slumps while Vegoils Rise
The Market With just two days left before the January WASDE, the soy complex is trading above week-ago levels, but that fact belies the weakness that has enveloped the market since late November. Skepticism over China’s long-term commitment to U.S. soybean purchases – especial...
Transportation and Export Report - 7 January
WPI is pleased to announce the acquisition of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Jay O’Neil. This report will strengthen WPI’s coverage of global ocean freight markets by building on the best-in-class i...
Market Commentary: Export Chatter Lifts Soymeal, Soybeans; Weather Worries Boost Wheat
The CBOT renewed its early-week strength at mid-week and turned higher with soybeans and soymeal in the lead. Fresh news was light for the day, but markets responded positively to rumors of export business getting done for soybeans and soymeal, with wheat gaining on an increasingly warm and les...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Crude Oil and Short Covering; Cattle Tempest Now Tempered
Ag markets were higher with support coming from a rally in crude oil and broader energy markets after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president from power over the weekend. The move has direct bullish implications for crude oil supplies in the near term, which should help broader commodity m...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The holiday period did not slow harvest. As of 30 December 2025, wheat harvest reached 93 percent of total area. Yields above expectations led the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to raise its crop estimate to 27.8 MMT, in line with other estimates and similar to general market expectations. T...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Fail to Excite Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Down on Technical Trade
The CBOT traded mostly lower on Tuesday with funds remaining dedicated sellers. The motivation for their selling stems partially from pre-holiday risk-off trading and partially from the technical weakness enveloping the charts. Corn was the downside leader for the second straight day, though ob...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Profit Tanking Sink CBOT
Grains and oilseeds nearly all traded lower to start the week with profit taking driving most of the action as the CBOT enters another holiday-shortened week. The only market to finish higher was soyoil, where a geopolitical tension driving bounce in crude oil helped support the vegoil. Improve...
Market Commentary: Grains Give up Gains while Cattle Turn Higher on Cash Trade
The CBOT saw its typical low-volume post-Christmas trading session on Friday, but low trading volume didn’t stop the markets from making some notable technical moves. The first of which, on a broad scale, is that early strength in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat, all f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 13.1 percent week-over-week, reaching 73 percent of total area, with yields remaining above average and above earlier expectations. As a result, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its production estimate to 27.1 MMT, broadly in line with the Rosario Board of Trade&rsq...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Wheat, Soybeans Fall Further
Bears were once again in charge of the CBOT on Wednesday, though they temporarily relinquished control of the corn market to bulls. Funds were aggressive sellers again in soybeans, soymeal, and wheat futures amid bearish fundamentals for each of the commodities and pushed wheat to a new contrac...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Buying Demand; Livestock Futures Buying Time
Bears were in control of the CBOT again on Monday with technical pressure and bearish fundamental headlines driving prices lower. Soybeans and wheat were the downside leaders for the day as funds accelerated their exit from long positions in these markets amid the chart weakness. Corn futures s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
EXPORT TAXES The government announced last week a permanent reduction in export taxes on major agricultural products. The revised rates are as follows: Soybeans: 26 percent to 24 percent Byproducts: 24.5 percent to 22.5 percent Wheat and barley: 9.5 percent to 7.5 percent Corn and sorghum: 9.5...
Market Commentary: China Buys While Timeline Changes; Wheat Drops on Export Outlook
Once again, the headlines for CBOT trade revolved around news from China, this time in support of both bulls and bears. Bulls benefited from the news of “flash” export sales of 17 Mbu to China and unknown destinations, which was an obvious encouragement to the market. One of the rea...
WASDE Corn - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average corn price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $4.00 per bushel. Global corn stocks are down 2.2 million to 279.2 million tons...
WASDE Wheat - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average wheat price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $5.00 per bushel. Global wheat stocks rose 3.4 million tons to 274.9 million, mainly on increases for several exporting countries...
WASDE Soybeans - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average prices are presently unchanged for U.S. soybeans at $10.50 per bushel, for soymeal at $300 per short-ton, and for soyoil at 53 cents per pound. Global soybean ending stocks are increased 0.4 million tons to 122.4 million, m...
Trump Announces Farm Bailout
President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs. The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest progressed by 11.5 percent during the week, lifting completion to 45 percent of the harvestable area. Fieldwork moved across the central agricultural region at a normal pace, with yields continuing to surpass historical averages. Most of the remaining standing area was either dryi...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australia and the Pacific with Brazil and West Africa seeing demand for LH December and January positions. Panamax markets were firmer with growing...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3.8 percentage points this week, bringing total progress to 20 percent of the area. Yields continued to perform well, and given tight margins after recent price declines, most harvested volumes exceeded breakeven levels. In the core production region,...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase heading into 2026. China has purchased about 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans out of their commitment to purchase 12 MMT in December and January. Cape...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 4.9 percent week over week, reaching 16.5 percent of the suitable area. The national average yield continued to rise as combines moved through the core production zones, now at 2.6 MT/ha. In the highest-productivity regions, cutting was still limited, but early tests poin...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to decrease 10 million bushels to 290. The projected U.S. season-average soybean price received by farmers is increased 50 cents to $10.50 per bushel. The global ending stocks of soybeans is reduced 2.0 million tons to 122.0...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. corn ending stocks to increase 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The projected U.S. season-average corn price received by farmers is increased 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel; The global ending stocks of corn is reduced slightly to 281.3 million ton...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price received by farmers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00. The global ending stocks of total wheat increased to 271.4 million; This is the firs...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late November and early December. Despite hopes to the contrary, there has been essentially no confirmation of any U.S. grain export business to C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as high as 8 MT/ha. Optimism is high, and for some, the estimates of 22–23 MMT are starting to look conservative. However, there are still...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower with disappointment about the slow appearance of Chinese demand weighing on market sentiment. The U.S.-China trade deal was thought to be lik...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agricultural region, early planting is nearly complete, while some areas in the central and southern parts of Buenos Aires province still need...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest is gaining momentum in northern Argentina, with yields exceeding expectations. In the northwest, yields range from 0.8–1.5 MT/ha, above the five-year regional average of 0.82 MT/ha. In the northeast, current averages near 2.7 MT/ha surpass the previous record from...
Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation
Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. The winner was Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party and its coalition partners. The La Libertad Avanza party won 40.78 percent of th...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were mixed and relatively quiet this week. The Capesize sector traded steady on flagging spot demand despite an increase in Chinese iron ore demand and rising Dalian steel futures. The Panamax sector was the upside leader for the week, primarily due to Pacific demand. Freight m...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess moisture continues to hinder fieldwork in central and western Buenos Aires provinces. As a result, early planting will likely fall short of in...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked out magic" Trump said, with no details offered. As...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were mixed this past week with paper values rising as the Chinese holiday ended, but physical values seeing little of the same enthusiasm. Capesize freight rates were volatile last week after China’s port-fee announcement on 9 October. The fees, as expected, forced...
Livestock Roundup: Quick Hits – Feeder Cattle, Chicken Nuggets, China Hogs, Turkey and U.S. Brazil Trade Talks
Feeder Cattle Hit Record Highs: Feeder cattle contracts are trading at $382.725/cwt, a record high, including adjusted for inflation. The previous peak was $320 in today’s dollars. Futures across the board remain elevated, averaging about $380/cwt, an indication that tight supplies will l...
Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?
CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massive levels. The soybean crop was forecast at a record 177.6 MMT, up sharply from the prior year and easily the largest on record due to expand...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Although nearly 97 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated from normal to excellent, excessive rainfall in some areas is becoming a concern. Certain fields have been inaccessible for months, preventing necessary fieldwork. Fungal diseases are spreading, but farmers are still inve...
What Spreads and Basis Are Saying About Soybean Exports
The government shutdown has entered its tenth day, leaving the grain markets without two weeks of export data. Fortunately, the USDA AMS and FGIS continue to publish the weekly Export Inspections report, leaving the grain industry not totally blind to exports. Even so, that report covers only a...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are waiting to see how rates will react now that China’s Golden Week and South Korea’s holidays are both over. The Golden Week celebrations ended on Wednesday and, so far, dry bulk rates have not seen much upward movement. Panamax and Capesize vessels are slightly f...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 7.4 percentage points over the past week and reached 19.8 percent of the 7.8 MHa projected for the season. Favorable soil moisture continues to support early planting and put progress roughly 7 points ahead of last year. However, western, cent...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight rates cratered this week as China started its Golden Week holiday, which blanketed markets with calm and quiet. Pacific markets were especially dull and weaker, especially amid doubts about how China’s grain demand will play out after the holiday. China still has not book...
Can a Trade Deal Save U.S. 2025/26 Soybean Exports?
Wednesday’s headline in the ag markets was President Trump’s social media post that indicated soybeans will be on the agenda for his upcoming summit with President Xi. The news was the first significant acknowledgement by the administration since starting the trade war that it is ha...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
“Zero Export Taxes”: The Controversy in Argentina Ahead of the elections, the Argentine government faced urgent pressure to secure hard currency and stabilize the exchange rate. To do so, it temporarily eliminated export duties on grains and by-products, effective until 31 October 2...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are mixed this week as the Capesize sector saw renewed strength while Panamax and Supramax markets struggled to maintain rates. Capesize markets were higher on iron ore demand from west Australia with a steady flow of cargo bookings through the week. The improved booking...
Market Commentary: China Books More Argy Soybeans; Markets Wait on Fundamentals
Ag futures were mostly lower at mid-week with the advancing U.S. corn and soybeans harvests and massive soybean sales from Argentina creating a bearish sentiment. Markets received positive news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soymeal to Guatemala, but those failed to impress markets...
Market Commentary: Exports Drive Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as strong export demand – even in spite of Argentina’s temporary export tax cut – continues to drive the grain market outlook. Corn demand remains especially strong with Mexico booking another several cargoes overnight despite its own outl...
Argentina Suspends Export Tax on Soy
Yesterday, Argentina temporarily stopped its export tax on grains and co-products, as well as beef and poultry, something President Javier Milei had proposed during his campaign. The final decision, however, came as the country is desperate for U.S. dollars to shore up the flagging peso. Furthe...
Market Commentary: Negative Icing on a Bearish Cake; Cattle Rally as NWS Found 70 Miles from Border
The CBOT was sharply lower to start the week as markets had a negative reaction to surprising policy developments from South America. Argentina’s government announced a zero-export tax policy on grains through 31 October in an attempt to boost domestic reserves of U.S. dollars (for detail...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Tax Policy Update On Monday, 22 September, the Argentine government announced a temporary elimination of export duties on all grains and by-products. The measure will remain in effect until 31 October 2025, or until $7 billion in foreign currency inflows are reached, whichever...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were volatile last week but failed to settle on much of a direction. Capesize markets stabilized and seemed to be finding a little support, which helped stabilize other vessel sectors. Miners in the Pacific remain consistently active, which is supporting Capesize rates in the r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s 2024/25 corn harvest is virtually complete, with only isolated fields still being collected. Final output is expected to exceed 50 MMT. Attention now shifts to the 2025/26 crop, where planted area is projected at 7.8 million hectares — surpassed only by the 20...
WASDE Soybeans - Sep 2025
Soybeans – USDA’s Sep 2025 outlook is for higher U.S. ending stocks to 300 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average soybean price is forecast at $10.00 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal and the soybean oil prices are unchanged...
WASDE Wheat - Sep 2025
Wheat - USDA’s Sep 2025 outlook is for U.S. total wheat exports to increase by 25 million bushels to 900 million. That reduced ending stocks by 25 million bushels to 844 million - slightly less than last year. The projected 2025/26 seasonal average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushe...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Last week’s rainfall covered much of Argentina’s western wheat-growing region, improving prospects for cereals there. Still, 27.3 percent of the area now shows excess water — up from 7 percent the prior week — mainly in the east and south, where fungal diseas...
Brazil Retaliation to U.S. Tariffs
The Foreign Ministry of Brazil notified the U.S. today that it has directed its trade body, Camex, to investigate whether it can retaliate against the 50 percent tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on several goods imported from Brazil. The investigation will conducted be under a law pa...
New World Screwworm Human Case
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced only 1.3 percent this week, reaching 96 percent complete nationwide. The final stretch is always slower, and this year the harvest could extend into September as recent rains further delay fieldwork in Buenos Aires province. Farmer selling has...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize markets falling back after their recent rally while Panamax and Supramax values continue to firm. The Atlantic and Pacific markets saw diverging trends with the former seeing generally steady trade (except for spot positions) while the latter...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to show good development across most of the country. While some areas remain affected by flooding, favorable weather has helped reduce excess moisture in many fields. In the core region, July rainfall exceeded the historical average, leaving c...
WASDE Soybeans - August 2025
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean production for 2025/26 to 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average farm price for soybean is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean m...
WASDE Corn - August 2025
USDA’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is a record 188.8 bushels per acre, which is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. U.S. exports are increased 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion bushels. Regardless, U.S. ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2...
WASDE Wheat - August 2025
USDA increased their estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. Nevertheless, the 2025/26 season-average far...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat and Boosting Production Margins With 6.7 million hectares sown, the 2025/2026 season wheat crop has been planted and it marks one of Argentina’s most promising crops on record. Although some fields were waterlogged, more than 80 percent of the area had water conditions ranging from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in the core region in 40 years. While the improved soil moisture will be beneficial for corn planting that’s set to begin in about a month...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets The dry bulk market rally of the past two weeks has ended with rates turning softer this week. The Capesize sector – which lead the recent rally – is now leading the way lower with the Panamax sector in tow. The reason for the weaker rates is that fresh cargo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Export Tax Update The government this week announced a definitive — not temporary — reduction in export taxes for a series of agricultural products. Between January and July 2025, a temporary reduction had been in place. On 1 July, the export tax rates reverted to pr...
WPI Transportation Report
Dy Bulk Markets Again this week, the bullish story is the rapid rise in Capesize vessel freight values with demand for Australian iron ore driving most of the rally. The Aussies have seen strong demand for August shipments in particular, which is pushing the forward end of the curve highe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Taxes The topic of export taxes continues to spark debate in Argentina, particularly soybean taxes. The return to a 33 percent rate for soybeans has made planting unviable in large parts of the agricultural area. In corn, the increase of 3 percentage points is less impactful, and t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting is entering its final stage after a weekly advance of 12.7 percentage points at the national level, now covering 91 percent of the projected 6.7 million hectares. Regional progress of about 20 points was seen in areas previously delayed by surface wa...
WASDE Soybeans - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for increased ending stocks compared to last month: U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 was raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion on the assumption that demand for soybean oil for biofuel would increase. The U.S. seasonal average farm price of...
WASDE Corn - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. corn is a reduction in ending stocks from the June estimate of 1.75 billion bushels to 1.66 billion bushels. U.S. corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion; If realized, those exports would be record high. The seasonal average farm pr...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs, receiving a “tariff letter” with the threat of 50 percent tariffs. Imports from Brazil to the U.S. have faced a minimum 1...
WASDE Wheat - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. wheat production to increase 8 million bushels to 1,929 million bushels. However, the estimate for U.S. wheat exports is raised by 25 million b...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting now covers 78.2 percent of Argentina’s projected 6.7 million hectares after a weekly advance of 5.5 percentage points. Fieldwork slowed during the second half of June due to excess moisture from persistent rains, leaving progress 2.5 points behind the five-year...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of grains on the market, prices are bearish. However, the first cuts of wheat showed poor results and encouraged farmers to wait and see. The av...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The Argentine government has officially issued a decree extending the reduction of export taxes for wheat and barley, while restoring previous rates for corn, soybeans, and soybean by-products. Much of the agricultural sector remained hopeful until the last minute, amid rumors...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat planting advanced by 21.8 percentage points last week and now covers 60.3 percent of the projected 6.7 Mha for the 2025/26 season. This pace is above the historical average but remains 5 percentage points behind last year’s progress. In the core product...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize vessel rates initially pushing higher, but then failing on reduced coal, iron ore, and bauxite demand and shipments. Rates for Capes were particularly sensitive to China’s weakening coal import demand and the country&rsq...
Market Commentary: Grain Consolidation Begins while Cattle Correction Continues
With the notable exception of soyoil, the CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with funds covering shorts ahead of the midweek holiday amid a few bullish headlines. Wheat was the upside leader as harvest delays and quality concerns mount for the Southern Plains HRW crop amid persistent rains. Soyb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance slowly, with a weekly gain of less than 3 percent bringing nationwide progress to nearly 47 percent. Harvesting has begun in northwest Argentina with low but expected yields, while results are better in the Central-West region of Có...
WASDE Soybeans – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024/25 as higher soybean meal disappearance increases 2 percent due to greater pork and poultry production. I...
WASDE Corn – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies to create higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago due to increases in both area and yield. Planted area is estimated to be 95.3 million acres and yield is projected t...
WASDE Wheat – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected l...
Market Commentary: RFS Luck on Friday the 13th
Soybeans and soyoil were already spiking due to Israel’s attack on Iran and the bolt higher in the petroleum market and then the Trump Administration goosed it even higher by issuing a biofuel blend mandate of 24.02 billion gallons in 2026. It will be a record amount under the Renewable F...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat ahead of WASDE; Cattle and Beef Prices Running Red-Hot
Corn, wheat, and soybeans all traded higher overnight on growing optimism over the U.S.-China trade negotiations, though markets could not hold those gains. The talks in London made solid progress and negotiations are reportedly on track with the Geneva agreement that is allowing broader trade...
New Meat Giant Created in Brazil; Most of Revenue from U.S.
While the MAHA report from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. still cites consolidation in the meat packing sector, Brazil’s competition regulator, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), has approved a merger of two major Brazilian meat processors,...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather Forecasts while Livestock Futures Hit New Highs
Except for the livestock futures, which all hit new contract or record highs, the CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with favorable weather and bearish chart conditions driving the sentiment. The index fund roll ticked off its second of five days on Monday, so spreads and volumes patterns...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3.3 percentage points over the past week and reached 43.8 percent of the estimated area nationwide. Progress remains slow due to high grain moisture and inaccessible soils in some regions. Still, harvest pace is 8 points ahead of last year &mda...
Market Commentary: Strong Friday and an Upward Bound Week
If yesterday’s trading looked like uncertainty ultimately succumbing to the bulls, today’s trading opened with the bears fully in charge. Contracts opened lower and mostly stayed that way until late morning when there appeared to be an epiphany with the bulls and they took charge. I...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Margins Set to Rise; China Soymeal Prices Remain Weak
The Market U.S. soybean prices have mostly been treading water these past few weeks with neither bulls nor bears able to get the upper hand for more than a few days. Continued trade war worries and challenges building negotiations between the U.S. and China have contributed to recent weak...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while wheat futures drifted lower. Too, live cattle futures and July lean hogs both posted Turnaround Tuesdays as bulls became cautious with prices ne...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with only 40 percent of the total area harvested so far. The delay is no longer primarily due to the soybean harvest but is now driven by persistent high grain moisture and excess water in many fields. The m...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the key for markets going forward, but the Middle Kingdom has not seen any surge in bookings yet. The Baltic Dry indices were mixed this w...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...