Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 483,500 MT were up 43 percent from the previous week and 11 percent f...
Cattle on Feed - April 2025
U.S. cattle on Feed totaled totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2025 - 2 percent below April 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.84 million head, 5 percent above 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.73 million head, 1 percent above 2024. O...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.365/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.6/short ton, down $1.1...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one consistent thing was lower pre-holiday volume across grains and oilseeds. Ahead of a three-day market hiatus, all major contracts clo...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 18 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Monday, 21 April. ...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report a Day Early
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today because the markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. The total inventory of cattle on feed was 11.6 million head on 1 April, down 2 percent from April 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.84 million head,...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Trade War Machinations; Chicken War; Uncomfortable Europe; MAHA Coke
Trade War Machinations EU trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic left Washington saying the Trump Administration’s trade policy goals were unclear. Yet, the EU rejected Washington’s offer to drop tariffs if Brussels reduces trade ties with China and removes food safety barriers to American...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, up $2.5 fro...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 16 April)
Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 11 April 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight The trade war(s) and the possible Section 301 penalties against Chinese vessels docking at U.S. ports have kept freight markets exceptionally volatile in recent weeks. This week’s trend wa...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $2...
Heifers on Feed Drop Below Replacement Heifers
One of the metrics we’ve been watching as a sign of herd rebuilding is the number of heifers as a percent of on feed inventory. However, we’re in new territory. For the first time since heifer on feed reporting began in 1996, the inventory of replacement heifers has fallen below Hei...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $2...
Extreme is Necessary
While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg’s Tyler Cowen, the world trading order is “weighted against the exporting interests of the U.S.” Moreover, it is growing wor...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows comments from Ursula von der Lyden. The European Commission issued an official statement: "In response to the widespread disruption cause...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate, along with a unification of the official and financial exchange rates. The move includes the eli...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Budget Reconciliation: A Step Closer to “One Big Beautiful Bill”
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill by a vote of 216 to 214. The two Republican “no” votes were from Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Victoria Spartz of Indiana, neither of which was a surprise. Massie has been a skeptic of the bill all along and Spartz famousl...
Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment
Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the trade war’s impact on export markets. Surveys indicate that the American public expects tariffs to raise their cost of living. They al...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI has been dissatisfied with the presentation of the timeline of these tariffs and evaluation of the full duties U.S. exports face entering fo...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
WASDE Corn
Corn - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels. U.S. corn ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks,...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Raises Crush, Export Sales Remain Strong
The Market Oilseed markets have been volatile again this week amid the tariff-induced meltdown in macroeconomic and ag markets and Wednesday’s massive reversal and rally in the same markets. The net result of this is that soy complex futures are largely little changed – especi...
Livestock Roundup: Latest CPI Data, Eggs Still in Driver’s Seat
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the “all items index” increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adj...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 28-April 3, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 339,100 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 16 per...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
War, what is it Good For?
It was another day of market turmoil over tariffs. There is still not enough clarity or transition time for businesses. The high tariffs between the U.S. and China seem likely to be permanent. The public will only accept the high cost of this war if they understand and accept its goals. History...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Some Clarity, But Long Haul
Trump officials this past weekend kept up the mixed messaging over whether reciprocal tariffs were merely a negotiating strategy or a permanent fixture. Breaking too fast to negotiate with other countries would look weak, and retaining tariffs is still viewed by some in the White House as neces...
Ethanol to the Rescue!
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) headed a letter of 15 other bipartisan Senators asking President Trump to permit the year-round sale of E15 fuel through the summer of 2025. The letter encouraged the use of temporary waivers under the Clean Air Act to exte...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
Except for beef packer and feedlot placement margins, cattle and hog industry profits were broadly lower last week with the pork industry seeing the most pronounced weakness. Pork packer margins drifted lower on weaker pork values and despite slightly lower hog purchase costs. Last week’s...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America Healthy Again” message. He’s promoting state-level policies that ban ultra-processed foods and dyes in public schools, restrict...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Trade and Jobs Reports
Now that the Administration’s tariff plans are out, what is happening to the trade deficit? After hitting a record in January, the trade deficit shrank to $122.7 billion in February as exports grew by $8 billion while imports declined slightly. Still, that leaves the monthly trade deficit...
Tight Supplies, Strong U.S. Demand to Support Cattle Prices Despite Trade War
Anyone following the beef and cattle markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Now, the outlook is further complicated by the tariffs that will be placed on Mexican feeder cattle impo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
While Swinging for the Fence
Early reactions to President Trump’s tariff war are as expected. Major foreign trading partners are expressing shock and assuring Washington that if there is no negotiated settlement, there will be an appropriate response. Domestic pundits emphasize this is a tax on American consumers and...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. We wi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 21-27, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 499,600 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from th...
Oilseed Highlights: “Liberation Day” Rattles Markets
The Market Prior to the Liberation Day tariffs that President Trump announced late Wednesday, oilseed markets were seeing noted strength due to renewed hopes for biodiesel demand. Earlier this week, news broke that members of the oil and renewable energy sectors met with the EPA to discus...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
“Reciprocal” Tariffs; Apocalypse Day, or Not; Misdirection
“Reciprocal” Tariffs President Trump’s political opponents acknowledge he is a great marketer and his multi-day hype of a “Liberation Day” came to a head today with the announcement of a minimum 10 percent import tariff and rates at generally half those charged by...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Uncertainty Ends
Trump’s tariff threats are said to be causing uncertainty, though its intent is transparent. One thing tomorrow’s release of the tariff plan will not end is the duplicity of its opponents. Let’s look at some of the sturm und drang and its meaning. East Asia: A joint statement...
Quick Hits: Agency Employment, Grains Reports, and Biofuels
USDA Retirement: USDA employees have until 8 Apil to decide whether to participate in the administration's so-called deferred resignation program. USDA employees were sent an email last night titled “Deferred Resignation Program 2.0,” which says they must make a decision by the dead...
Livestock Industry Margins
Near-record negative margins for beef packers continue to dominate discussion of livestock industry margins this week. Beef packer profits rebounded slightly last week on the heels of firmer beef markets, but remain at -$176/head, which is among the weakest levels in the past two decades. Feedl...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $0.8 f...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the agency’s first detailed assessment of 2025 acreage. The report featured the expected increase in corn area and decrease in soybean plant...
Liberation Day Minus One; States Rights, National Losses; The Hammer and USDA
Liberation Day Minus One The Trump team is said to be weighing 20 percent across the board tariffs, reducing the share of U.S. funding of the WTO, and critic James Carville says the Administration has collapsed in less than three months. Morgan Stanley calls all the stated goals for tariffs as...
Liberation Day is Coming!
President Trump said yesterday, his reciprocal tariffs will launch this Wednesday, calling it “Liberation Day.” Those new tariffs will affect "all countries." However, the Administration has yet to reveal many of the key details of his plan, or when actual duties will be implemented...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the weakness in futures over the past few weeks and funds’ positions as of last Tuesday were in line with expectations. In the soy complex,...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after the close yesterday. However, by the close today, corn and soybeans had flipped back into the green. Still, on the whole, 60 percent of our...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.23/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $1 f...
Hog Outlook Shows Smaller Production and Exports, but Strong Demand in 2025
The March Hogs and Pigs report offered the industry a much-needed look at what the supply situation is and is likely to be for the coming year. As WPI readers likely already know, the report showed that all-hogs and pigs inventories were essentially equal to last year’s numbers with marke...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 14-20, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 100,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 428,700 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week, but...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1675/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be issued on Monday all keep traders in a cautious position. Today’s USDA Export Sales report covering last week’s activity...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.5 million head. This was down slightly from 1 March 2024 and down 1 percent from 1 December. Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, and...
Oilseed Highlights: Soyoil, Rapeseed Rally on Demand Surge
The Market The big movement in oilseed markets this week is the rally in soyoil futures, which are up 4 percent from last week. The market has rallied due to its large discount against palm oil futures and recent gains in rapeseed prices that are supporting oilseed and vegoils broadly. U...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news remains light but the justification for the day’s declines were expectations for USDA to report expanded corn area and larger wheat stock...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.01/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $1...
Trade War Maneuvering; MAHA HaHa; Russian Grain Agreement
Trade War Maneuvering Wall Street trading sank lower on word that the White House will announce today tariffs on automobile imports. While some U.S. farm groups are asking for import protections, others are advising a more strategic trade approach that opens up overseas markets. It is reported...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamental news was hard to find for the day and that certainly contributed to the day’s weakness. Funds were solid net sellers for the second...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $...
U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption
U.S. manufacturing energy consumption has continued to increase, according to the EIA’s recently released survey results for 2022. The agency conducts and releases the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) every four years. The latest iteration shows the third consecutive increas...
Transatlantic Provocations; Indian Adjustments; Grain Industry Threats
Transatlantic Provocations No one knows what to fully expect on 2 April and the launch of President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Bill Reinsch at the Center for Strategic and International Studies observes that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum likely has the best three componen...
Livestock Industry Margins
The big story in livestock industry margins continues to be the record-breaking weakness in beef packer profits, which fell another $50/head last week to -$193/head. The surge in cattle prices and declines in slaughter weights more than offset gains in beef values and left packers with the lowe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any updates on the trade policy front. Markets are in a holding pattern right now with the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere planting effort still a few...
Monday Policy Potpourri
Hill Trade Advice: The U.S. House Ways & Means’ Trade Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow on American trade negotiation priorities. Witnesses include those from agriculture, those impacted by trade retaliation, services, and former Republican trade officials. The Trump Adminis...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $2.7...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly survey showed that 92 percent of economists now agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war. It’s not clear where the other 8 percent t...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Hot CoF Report After the Close
The fundamentals are unchanged but there is a cloud overhead due to the impending tariff war and the headwinds that portends. So, the market today and all week is a matter of treading water until more definitive cues emerge. In fact, today was so mixed that soybeans and soyoil fell even as typi...
Cattle on Feed - March 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head was 11.6 million head on March 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below March 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.55 million head, 18 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.6 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were 1.55 million head, 82 percent of last year, and marketings at 1.74 million head were 91 percent of Fe...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0975/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.2...
Cow-Calf Revenues and Producer Responses to Inflation
Southern Plains cow-calf producers saw excellent profitability in 2024, which, by some measures, was the best in history. Current prices indicate that 2025 has similar potential to break profitability records and put the industry on solid financial footing. The impacts of inflation, however, in...
Market Commentary: Export Sales, Weather Mix the Markets
Wheat was the ball and chain while corn was the balloon in today’s trading. The weekly USDA Export Sales report from USDA was notable for wheat with washouts in old crop sales leading to a marketing year low, but new crop sales going blockbuster as Guatemala, Mexico and Panama all sought...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 7-13, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 248,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 470,900 MT were up noticeably from the prev...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $0.6 fro...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Exports Stumble; China Crush Falls
The Market The weekly Export Sales report was disappointing for soybeans as old crop net sales fell by half from the prior week and new crop net sales registered only 10 KMT – down sharply from the prior week’s volume of 43.1 KMT. Old crop exports were also lower than the prio...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...
Market Commentary: U.S., Paris Wheat Diverge; Corn Consolidates; New Highs for Cattle
Except for the wheat market, the CBOT and CME largely continued their existing trends on Wednesday. Wheat futures offered perhaps the most interesting trade as HRW futures reversed course from their recent weather-induced rally and pulled back. The spot KCBT contract settled below $6.00, which...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.7/short ton, down $2.2...
Trade War Fractures
Today was National Agriculture Trade Day, an effort to boost awareness about the benefits of trade to the sector. However, the milestone also sparked debate about the increasing U.S. agricultural trade deficit, and the advisability of the Trump tariff war. President Trump’s goal is...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were mostly lower last week as rising input costs crimped the profitability outlook. Declines were greatest for feedlot placements, where margins fell over $50/head due to higher feeder cattle costs. Beef packer margins saw the next greatest declines with profits drop...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Cattle Rally and Form Reversal
Once again, the big action in the ag futures markets was in the cattle markets, where futures hit new contract and all-time highs for the second straight day. Unexpected strength in the physical cattle and beef markets has propelled futures higher this week, with funds rapidly expanding already...
Cattle Markets Still Screwy
The cattle marketing year is off to a strange start. In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same period last year. This component of production is driven by two factors: heavier carcass weights of steers and heifers, and the proportion of...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.65/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, down $...
‘Dirty 15’; Ukraine’s Ag Exports; WTO and National Security
‘Dirty 15’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump Administration may provide one unique number as the newly applied general tariff on each country supplying goods to the U.S. The few countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S. may escape receiving a number but fo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black Sea. That strength spilled over into corn and soybeans a little bit, but neither of those markets could sustain any meaningful rallies. Fresh...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.155/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.3/short ton, down $1.6 from...
Budget Deal Made Just in Time
The House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate have both passed the full-year Continuing Appropriations Act, which would fund the government under a continuing resolution (CR) for the remainder of fiscal year (FY) 2025. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that this bill would set...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 483,500 MT were up 43 percent from the previous week and 11 percent f...
Cattle on Feed - April 2025
U.S. cattle on Feed totaled totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2025 - 2 percent below April 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.84 million head, 5 percent above 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.73 million head, 1 percent above 2024. O...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.365/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.6/short ton, down $1.1...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one consistent thing was lower pre-holiday volume across grains and oilseeds. Ahead of a three-day market hiatus, all major contracts clo...
Good Friday
Tomorrow, 18 April, is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Monday, 21 April. ...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report a Day Early
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today because the markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. The total inventory of cattle on feed was 11.6 million head on 1 April, down 2 percent from April 2024. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.84 million head,...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Trade War Machinations; Chicken War; Uncomfortable Europe; MAHA Coke
Trade War Machinations EU trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic left Washington saying the Trump Administration’s trade policy goals were unclear. Yet, the EU rejected Washington’s offer to drop tariffs if Brussels reduces trade ties with China and removes food safety barriers to American...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, up $2.5 fro...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 16 April)
Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 11 April 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight The trade war(s) and the possible Section 301 penalties against Chinese vessels docking at U.S. ports have kept freight markets exceptionally volatile in recent weeks. This week’s trend wa...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $2...
Heifers on Feed Drop Below Replacement Heifers
One of the metrics we’ve been watching as a sign of herd rebuilding is the number of heifers as a percent of on feed inventory. However, we’re in new territory. For the first time since heifer on feed reporting began in 1996, the inventory of replacement heifers has fallen below Hei...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $2...
Extreme is Necessary
While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg’s Tyler Cowen, the world trading order is “weighted against the exporting interests of the U.S.” Moreover, it is growing wor...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows comments from Ursula von der Lyden. The European Commission issued an official statement: "In response to the widespread disruption cause...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate, along with a unification of the official and financial exchange rates. The move includes the eli...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Budget Reconciliation: A Step Closer to “One Big Beautiful Bill”
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill by a vote of 216 to 214. The two Republican “no” votes were from Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Victoria Spartz of Indiana, neither of which was a surprise. Massie has been a skeptic of the bill all along and Spartz famousl...
Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment
Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the trade war’s impact on export markets. Surveys indicate that the American public expects tariffs to raise their cost of living. They al...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI has been dissatisfied with the presentation of the timeline of these tariffs and evaluation of the full duties U.S. exports face entering fo...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
WASDE Corn
Corn - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bushels. U.S. corn ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks,...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Raises Crush, Export Sales Remain Strong
The Market Oilseed markets have been volatile again this week amid the tariff-induced meltdown in macroeconomic and ag markets and Wednesday’s massive reversal and rally in the same markets. The net result of this is that soy complex futures are largely little changed – especi...
Livestock Roundup: Latest CPI Data, Eggs Still in Driver’s Seat
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the “all items index” increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adj...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 28-April 3, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 339,100 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 16 per...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
War, what is it Good For?
It was another day of market turmoil over tariffs. There is still not enough clarity or transition time for businesses. The high tariffs between the U.S. and China seem likely to be permanent. The public will only accept the high cost of this war if they understand and accept its goals. History...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Some Clarity, But Long Haul
Trump officials this past weekend kept up the mixed messaging over whether reciprocal tariffs were merely a negotiating strategy or a permanent fixture. Breaking too fast to negotiate with other countries would look weak, and retaining tariffs is still viewed by some in the White House as neces...
Ethanol to the Rescue!
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) headed a letter of 15 other bipartisan Senators asking President Trump to permit the year-round sale of E15 fuel through the summer of 2025. The letter encouraged the use of temporary waivers under the Clean Air Act to exte...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
Except for beef packer and feedlot placement margins, cattle and hog industry profits were broadly lower last week with the pork industry seeing the most pronounced weakness. Pork packer margins drifted lower on weaker pork values and despite slightly lower hog purchase costs. Last week’s...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America Healthy Again” message. He’s promoting state-level policies that ban ultra-processed foods and dyes in public schools, restrict...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Trade and Jobs Reports
Now that the Administration’s tariff plans are out, what is happening to the trade deficit? After hitting a record in January, the trade deficit shrank to $122.7 billion in February as exports grew by $8 billion while imports declined slightly. Still, that leaves the monthly trade deficit...
Tight Supplies, Strong U.S. Demand to Support Cattle Prices Despite Trade War
Anyone following the beef and cattle markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Now, the outlook is further complicated by the tariffs that will be placed on Mexican feeder cattle impo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
While Swinging for the Fence
Early reactions to President Trump’s tariff war are as expected. Major foreign trading partners are expressing shock and assuring Washington that if there is no negotiated settlement, there will be an appropriate response. Domestic pundits emphasize this is a tax on American consumers and...
Livestock Roundup: Liberation Day Declared, Will Cooler Heads Prevail?
Yesterday, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs, stating: My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. We wi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 21-27, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 499,600 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from th...
Oilseed Highlights: “Liberation Day” Rattles Markets
The Market Prior to the Liberation Day tariffs that President Trump announced late Wednesday, oilseed markets were seeing noted strength due to renewed hopes for biodiesel demand. Earlier this week, news broke that members of the oil and renewable energy sectors met with the EPA to discus...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
“Reciprocal” Tariffs; Apocalypse Day, or Not; Misdirection
“Reciprocal” Tariffs President Trump’s political opponents acknowledge he is a great marketer and his multi-day hype of a “Liberation Day” came to a head today with the announcement of a minimum 10 percent import tariff and rates at generally half those charged by...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Uncertainty Ends
Trump’s tariff threats are said to be causing uncertainty, though its intent is transparent. One thing tomorrow’s release of the tariff plan will not end is the duplicity of its opponents. Let’s look at some of the sturm und drang and its meaning. East Asia: A joint statement...
Quick Hits: Agency Employment, Grains Reports, and Biofuels
USDA Retirement: USDA employees have until 8 Apil to decide whether to participate in the administration's so-called deferred resignation program. USDA employees were sent an email last night titled “Deferred Resignation Program 2.0,” which says they must make a decision by the dead...
Livestock Industry Margins
Near-record negative margins for beef packers continue to dominate discussion of livestock industry margins this week. Beef packer profits rebounded slightly last week on the heels of firmer beef markets, but remain at -$176/head, which is among the weakest levels in the past two decades. Feedl...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $0.8 f...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the agency’s first detailed assessment of 2025 acreage. The report featured the expected increase in corn area and decrease in soybean plant...
Liberation Day Minus One; States Rights, National Losses; The Hammer and USDA
Liberation Day Minus One The Trump team is said to be weighing 20 percent across the board tariffs, reducing the share of U.S. funding of the WTO, and critic James Carville says the Administration has collapsed in less than three months. Morgan Stanley calls all the stated goals for tariffs as...
Liberation Day is Coming!
President Trump said yesterday, his reciprocal tariffs will launch this Wednesday, calling it “Liberation Day.” Those new tariffs will affect "all countries." However, the Administration has yet to reveal many of the key details of his plan, or when actual duties will be implemented...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the weakness in futures over the past few weeks and funds’ positions as of last Tuesday were in line with expectations. In the soy complex,...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after the close yesterday. However, by the close today, corn and soybeans had flipped back into the green. Still, on the whole, 60 percent of our...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.23/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $1 f...
Hog Outlook Shows Smaller Production and Exports, but Strong Demand in 2025
The March Hogs and Pigs report offered the industry a much-needed look at what the supply situation is and is likely to be for the coming year. As WPI readers likely already know, the report showed that all-hogs and pigs inventories were essentially equal to last year’s numbers with marke...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 14-20, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 100,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 428,700 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week, but...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1675/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be issued on Monday all keep traders in a cautious position. Today’s USDA Export Sales report covering last week’s activity...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.5 million head. This was down slightly from 1 March 2024 and down 1 percent from 1 December. Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, and...
Oilseed Highlights: Soyoil, Rapeseed Rally on Demand Surge
The Market The big movement in oilseed markets this week is the rally in soyoil futures, which are up 4 percent from last week. The market has rallied due to its large discount against palm oil futures and recent gains in rapeseed prices that are supporting oilseed and vegoils broadly. U...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news remains light but the justification for the day’s declines were expectations for USDA to report expanded corn area and larger wheat stock...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.01/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $1...
Trade War Maneuvering; MAHA HaHa; Russian Grain Agreement
Trade War Maneuvering Wall Street trading sank lower on word that the White House will announce today tariffs on automobile imports. While some U.S. farm groups are asking for import protections, others are advising a more strategic trade approach that opens up overseas markets. It is reported...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamental news was hard to find for the day and that certainly contributed to the day’s weakness. Funds were solid net sellers for the second...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $...
U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption
U.S. manufacturing energy consumption has continued to increase, according to the EIA’s recently released survey results for 2022. The agency conducts and releases the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) every four years. The latest iteration shows the third consecutive increas...
Transatlantic Provocations; Indian Adjustments; Grain Industry Threats
Transatlantic Provocations No one knows what to fully expect on 2 April and the launch of President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Bill Reinsch at the Center for Strategic and International Studies observes that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum likely has the best three componen...
Livestock Industry Margins
The big story in livestock industry margins continues to be the record-breaking weakness in beef packer profits, which fell another $50/head last week to -$193/head. The surge in cattle prices and declines in slaughter weights more than offset gains in beef values and left packers with the lowe...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any updates on the trade policy front. Markets are in a holding pattern right now with the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere planting effort still a few...
Monday Policy Potpourri
Hill Trade Advice: The U.S. House Ways & Means’ Trade Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow on American trade negotiation priorities. Witnesses include those from agriculture, those impacted by trade retaliation, services, and former Republican trade officials. The Trump Adminis...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $2.7...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly survey showed that 92 percent of economists now agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war. It’s not clear where the other 8 percent t...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Hot CoF Report After the Close
The fundamentals are unchanged but there is a cloud overhead due to the impending tariff war and the headwinds that portends. So, the market today and all week is a matter of treading water until more definitive cues emerge. In fact, today was so mixed that soybeans and soyoil fell even as typi...
Cattle on Feed - March 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head was 11.6 million head on March 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below March 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.55 million head, 18 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during...
Cattle on Feed
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.6 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were 1.55 million head, 82 percent of last year, and marketings at 1.74 million head were 91 percent of Fe...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0975/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.2...
Cow-Calf Revenues and Producer Responses to Inflation
Southern Plains cow-calf producers saw excellent profitability in 2024, which, by some measures, was the best in history. Current prices indicate that 2025 has similar potential to break profitability records and put the industry on solid financial footing. The impacts of inflation, however, in...
Market Commentary: Export Sales, Weather Mix the Markets
Wheat was the ball and chain while corn was the balloon in today’s trading. The weekly USDA Export Sales report from USDA was notable for wheat with washouts in old crop sales leading to a marketing year low, but new crop sales going blockbuster as Guatemala, Mexico and Panama all sought...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 7-13, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 248,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 470,900 MT were up noticeably from the prev...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $0.6 fro...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Exports Stumble; China Crush Falls
The Market The weekly Export Sales report was disappointing for soybeans as old crop net sales fell by half from the prior week and new crop net sales registered only 10 KMT – down sharply from the prior week’s volume of 43.1 KMT. Old crop exports were also lower than the prio...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...
Market Commentary: U.S., Paris Wheat Diverge; Corn Consolidates; New Highs for Cattle
Except for the wheat market, the CBOT and CME largely continued their existing trends on Wednesday. Wheat futures offered perhaps the most interesting trade as HRW futures reversed course from their recent weather-induced rally and pulled back. The spot KCBT contract settled below $6.00, which...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.7/short ton, down $2.2...
Trade War Fractures
Today was National Agriculture Trade Day, an effort to boost awareness about the benefits of trade to the sector. However, the milestone also sparked debate about the increasing U.S. agricultural trade deficit, and the advisability of the Trump tariff war. President Trump’s goal is...
Livestock Industry Margins
Livestock industry margins were mostly lower last week as rising input costs crimped the profitability outlook. Declines were greatest for feedlot placements, where margins fell over $50/head due to higher feeder cattle costs. Beef packer margins saw the next greatest declines with profits drop...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Cattle Rally and Form Reversal
Once again, the big action in the ag futures markets was in the cattle markets, where futures hit new contract and all-time highs for the second straight day. Unexpected strength in the physical cattle and beef markets has propelled futures higher this week, with funds rapidly expanding already...
Cattle Markets Still Screwy
The cattle marketing year is off to a strange start. In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same period last year. This component of production is driven by two factors: heavier carcass weights of steers and heifers, and the proportion of...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.65/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, down $...
‘Dirty 15’; Ukraine’s Ag Exports; WTO and National Security
‘Dirty 15’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump Administration may provide one unique number as the newly applied general tariff on each country supplying goods to the U.S. The few countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S. may escape receiving a number but fo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black Sea. That strength spilled over into corn and soybeans a little bit, but neither of those markets could sustain any meaningful rallies. Fresh...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.155/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.3/short ton, down $1.6 from...
Budget Deal Made Just in Time
The House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate have both passed the full-year Continuing Appropriations Act, which would fund the government under a continuing resolution (CR) for the remainder of fiscal year (FY) 2025. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that this bill would set...