Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Emerge from Hibernation
The CBOT turned sharply higher at mid-week with corn, the soy complex, wheat, and livestock futures all posting strong gains for the day. The reasoning for each market’s rally was unique, but there were commonalities between all. For grains, the biggest common factor was short covering an...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.64/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.48/bushel, up $0.2075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.8/short ton, up $3.2 from yester...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of grains on the market, prices are bearish. However, the first cuts of wheat showed poor results and encouraged farmers to wait and see. The av...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday’s trade, this meant a focus on five-year highs in corn ratings and an excellent outlook for the crop into mid-July at least, which were t...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.6/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is closing several collection centers for this year’s wheat crop due to a drop in available wheat for purchase. At the end of last week, the total government purchases were at a little over 3.9 MMT against the governme...
Market Commentary: USDA Reports Offer Few Surprises, Weather Dominates Trade Outlook
The USDA’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports dominated the CBOT’s attention on Monday with the Noon ET release of both datasets driving the day’s action. There were relatively few surprises in the report but minor deviations from expectations helped create support in new crop s...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 30 June)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.27/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Aug 25 Soymeal closed at $275.8/short ton, up $0.2...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The Argentine government has officially issued a decree extending the reduction of export taxes for wheat and barley, while restoring previous rates for corn, soybeans, and soybean by-products. Much of the agricultural sector remained hopeful until the last minute, amid rumors...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders leaning mostly neutral the major ag markets last week, with activity across the grains and oilseed complex being rather subdued. Funds added just 1,997 contacts (12.8 percent) to their small net short across the ag space last week...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2475/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $271.1/short ton, up $0.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering
Traders seemed content to take short risk off the table heading into the weekend with USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Monday. Funds in particular are comfortable with positions ahead of these reports and saw little reason to push markets further into oversold territor...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.165/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $270.9/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: More Declines But They Slowed
The bleeding didn’t stop, but it slowed down today. Although corn and soybeans were up in the overnight and opened that way this morning, it didn’t last. It has been a very bearish week, though the declines were much shallower today than in previous days. While soybeans and wheat we...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Weather, Seasonal Factors Imply Short Profit Opportunities
The Market Oilseed markets have certainly seen no lack of volatility over the past several weeks, with the EPA’s surprise, bullish Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) mandates release a little less than two weeks ago, which was followed by the Israel-Iran conflict. That conflict drove...
Market Commentary: Good Weather is Bad for Bulls
The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with favorable weather for the U.S. 2025 spring crops and weaker global grain markets exacting a heavy toll. Notable among the day’s moves were the new contract lows in corn and soymeal and soybeans’ move back below the prices they traded just...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1025/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, down $0.215 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $276/short ton, down $4.5...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 June 2025 Grain markets plummeted to seasonally low price levels which are usually established at the beginning of the season. This was probably the straw that broke the camels back and it is hard to see prices any lower. But on the other hand, the month of...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oil Fall on Risk-off Trade after Middle East Ceasefire
The biggest drive of the CBOT’s Tuesday trade had little to do with grain markets themselves and, rather, was primarily focused on risk and positioning dynamics following the apparent Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement. While both sides have apparently agreed to some sort of ceasefire deal,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.52/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4675/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $280.5/short ton, down $1.9...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan’s wheat reserves are reportedly at 10 month consumption with barley supply at 8 months consumption. Jordan is increasing its grain storage capacity to a level that will allow as much as 16 months of wheat supply. Egyp...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Weather Not War Tanks the Market
Ags were mostly bearish on weather and an expected improving Crop Progress report, though the latter did not turn out that way. Equities opened partly in the red but quickly shifted green and stayed that way even after Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq. Save for hogs and Fe...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Emerge from Hibernation
The CBOT turned sharply higher at mid-week with corn, the soy complex, wheat, and livestock futures all posting strong gains for the day. The reasoning for each market’s rally was unique, but there were commonalities between all. For grains, the biggest common factor was short covering an...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.64/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.48/bushel, up $0.2075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290.8/short ton, up $3.2 from yester...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 – 27 June 2025 Grain markets remained slightly bearish because harvesting is ongoing and traditionally with and excess of grains on the market, prices are bearish. However, the first cuts of wheat showed poor results and encouraged farmers to wait and see. The av...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday’s trade, this meant a focus on five-year highs in corn ratings and an excellent outlook for the crop into mid-July at least, which were t...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $287.6/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is closing several collection centers for this year’s wheat crop due to a drop in available wheat for purchase. At the end of last week, the total government purchases were at a little over 3.9 MMT against the governme...
Market Commentary: USDA Reports Offer Few Surprises, Weather Dominates Trade Outlook
The USDA’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports dominated the CBOT’s attention on Monday with the Noon ET release of both datasets driving the day’s action. There were relatively few surprises in the report but minor deviations from expectations helped create support in new crop s...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 30 June)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Sep 25 Corn closed at $4.0925/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.27/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Aug 25 Soymeal closed at $275.8/short ton, up $0.2...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Tax Update The Argentine government has officially issued a decree extending the reduction of export taxes for wheat and barley, while restoring previous rates for corn, soybeans, and soybean by-products. Much of the agricultural sector remained hopeful until the last minute, amid rumors...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s delayed CFTC report showed managed money traders leaning mostly neutral the major ag markets last week, with activity across the grains and oilseed complex being rather subdued. Funds added just 1,997 contacts (12.8 percent) to their small net short across the ag space last week...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2475/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $271.1/short ton, up $0.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering
Traders seemed content to take short risk off the table heading into the weekend with USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Monday. Funds in particular are comfortable with positions ahead of these reports and saw little reason to push markets further into oversold territor...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.165/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $270.9/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: More Declines But They Slowed
The bleeding didn’t stop, but it slowed down today. Although corn and soybeans were up in the overnight and opened that way this morning, it didn’t last. It has been a very bearish week, though the declines were much shallower today than in previous days. While soybeans and wheat we...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Weather, Seasonal Factors Imply Short Profit Opportunities
The Market Oilseed markets have certainly seen no lack of volatility over the past several weeks, with the EPA’s surprise, bullish Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) mandates release a little less than two weeks ago, which was followed by the Israel-Iran conflict. That conflict drove...
Market Commentary: Good Weather is Bad for Bulls
The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with favorable weather for the U.S. 2025 spring crops and weaker global grain markets exacting a heavy toll. Notable among the day’s moves were the new contract lows in corn and soymeal and soybeans’ move back below the prices they traded just...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1025/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2525/bushel, down $0.215 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $276/short ton, down $4.5...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 – 20 June 2025 Grain markets plummeted to seasonally low price levels which are usually established at the beginning of the season. This was probably the straw that broke the camels back and it is hard to see prices any lower. But on the other hand, the month of...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oil Fall on Risk-off Trade after Middle East Ceasefire
The biggest drive of the CBOT’s Tuesday trade had little to do with grain markets themselves and, rather, was primarily focused on risk and positioning dynamics following the apparent Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement. While both sides have apparently agreed to some sort of ceasefire deal,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.52/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4675/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $280.5/short ton, down $1.9...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan’s wheat reserves are reportedly at 10 month consumption with barley supply at 8 months consumption. Jordan is increasing its grain storage capacity to a level that will allow as much as 16 months of wheat supply. Egyp...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Weather Not War Tanks the Market
Ags were mostly bearish on weather and an expected improving Crop Progress report, though the latter did not turn out that way. Equities opened partly in the red but quickly shifted green and stayed that way even after Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq. Save for hogs and Fe...