Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Market Commentary: The Calendar Is Not in Control
Energy: Risk Over Rules Fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight. Tehran accused U.S. forces of striking a residential area after U.S. Central Command said its second round of attacks in three days targeted Iranian radar systems and mi...
Paraguay’s Unique Place in the Global Soybean Trade
Key Takeaways: Paraguay typically ranks among the world’s largest soybean exporters, with roughly two-thirds of its production destined for export markets, although most shipments remain within South America. As a landlocked country, Paraguay relies heavily on the Paraguay-Paraná...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 August 2026 During the fourth week of August, the Russian grain market continued to slide, although the pace of the decline slowed. The immediate market reaction and collapse in export activity have placed significant pressure on farmers. Price declines vary b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
Market Commentary: Contract Highs to Start September; Demand Destruction is the Point
What You Need to Know Today: The EPA offered an extension for 2025 RSF compliance reporting from 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026 and announced decisions on requests to exempt 34 small refineries from the requirements. The U.S. is stepping up attacks against Iran after two tankers carrying c...
EPA Grants 29 SREs, but Reallocation is the Story
Key Takeaways: EPA granted full or partial Small Refinery Exemptions to 29 of the 34 petitions under consideration, removing approximately 1.76 billion RINs from 2025 compliance obligations, roughly 770 million more RINs than EPA had previously anticipated. The larger exemption total does not...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt, at the end of July, is once again the largest importer of maize from Brazil at about 2.6 million MT from January to July — followed by Iran at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 665,000 MT, Saudi Arabia at 435,000 MT, and Israel at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift on Profit Taking but Trend-Higher Regime Remains in Place
What You Need to Know Today: End-of-month profit taking sent the CBOT broadly lower, though corn and soybeans managed to post small gains to continue their rallies. Turkey’s foreign ministry claimed to have a plan to ensure safe passage for both Ukrainian and Russian grain vessels via th...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 31 August)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Tightening Supplies and Strong Demand Fuel a Grain Market Rally
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean prices rallied sharply last week as declining U.S. production expectations collided with strong demand, raising the prospect of tighter supplies and leaving the market with a smaller margin for further yield losses. The USDA’s lower August yield estimates...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The 2026/27 Argentine corn planting outlook remains broadly stable, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projecting 8.4 Mha, unchanged from 2025/26. Regional shifts are expected to largely offset each other, with lower acreage in the NOA and NEA due to renewed concerns over Dalbu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: After Bullish Week, WPI Bias is Higher but Risk Management More Important
What You Need to Know Today: Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all formed new contract or at least rally highs to close what has become one of the most uniformly bullish weeks in CBOT history. Escalations in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and attacks on civilian merchant vessels show n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: When Bottlenecks Move Markets
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Ethanol Margins Set to Decline; Biodiesel Margins Set to Explode
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Export, Yield, and Attack Headlines Drive Grains to New Highs
What You Need to Know Today: The day belonged to the bulls as fund buying and technical momentum boosted corn, soybeans, and wheat to new rally or contract highs. Wheat futures exploded Wednesday around the world after Russia indicated it will increase its attacks on Ukrainian export infrastru...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the third week of August as the Black Sea blockade severely disrupted export logistics. The resulting loss of export capacity is pressuring domestic prices and increasing storage concerns as the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3775/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Trade Dominates as Yields, Supplies Face Threats
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean crop ratings declined late Monday and set the stage for stronger CBOT trade Tuesday. Funds are in risk-on mode across the ag space, resulting in firm trade and solid gains for grains and oilseeds. Iran and Oman released a joint statement saying the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Market Commentary: The Calendar Is Not in Control
Energy: Risk Over Rules Fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight. Tehran accused U.S. forces of striking a residential area after U.S. Central Command said its second round of attacks in three days targeted Iranian radar systems and mi...
Paraguay’s Unique Place in the Global Soybean Trade
Key Takeaways: Paraguay typically ranks among the world’s largest soybean exporters, with roughly two-thirds of its production destined for export markets, although most shipments remain within South America. As a landlocked country, Paraguay relies heavily on the Paraguay-Paraná...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 August 2026 During the fourth week of August, the Russian grain market continued to slide, although the pace of the decline slowed. The immediate market reaction and collapse in export activity have placed significant pressure on farmers. Price declines vary b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
Market Commentary: Contract Highs to Start September; Demand Destruction is the Point
What You Need to Know Today: The EPA offered an extension for 2025 RSF compliance reporting from 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026 and announced decisions on requests to exempt 34 small refineries from the requirements. The U.S. is stepping up attacks against Iran after two tankers carrying c...
EPA Grants 29 SREs, but Reallocation is the Story
Key Takeaways: EPA granted full or partial Small Refinery Exemptions to 29 of the 34 petitions under consideration, removing approximately 1.76 billion RINs from 2025 compliance obligations, roughly 770 million more RINs than EPA had previously anticipated. The larger exemption total does not...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt, at the end of July, is once again the largest importer of maize from Brazil at about 2.6 million MT from January to July — followed by Iran at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 665,000 MT, Saudi Arabia at 435,000 MT, and Israel at...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift on Profit Taking but Trend-Higher Regime Remains in Place
What You Need to Know Today: End-of-month profit taking sent the CBOT broadly lower, though corn and soybeans managed to post small gains to continue their rallies. Turkey’s foreign ministry claimed to have a plan to ensure safe passage for both Ukrainian and Russian grain vessels via th...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 31 August)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Tightening Supplies and Strong Demand Fuel a Grain Market Rally
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean prices rallied sharply last week as declining U.S. production expectations collided with strong demand, raising the prospect of tighter supplies and leaving the market with a smaller margin for further yield losses. The USDA’s lower August yield estimates...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The 2026/27 Argentine corn planting outlook remains broadly stable, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projecting 8.4 Mha, unchanged from 2025/26. Regional shifts are expected to largely offset each other, with lower acreage in the NOA and NEA due to renewed concerns over Dalbu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: After Bullish Week, WPI Bias is Higher but Risk Management More Important
What You Need to Know Today: Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all formed new contract or at least rally highs to close what has become one of the most uniformly bullish weeks in CBOT history. Escalations in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and attacks on civilian merchant vessels show n...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: When Bottlenecks Move Markets
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Ethanol Margins Set to Decline; Biodiesel Margins Set to Explode
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Export, Yield, and Attack Headlines Drive Grains to New Highs
What You Need to Know Today: The day belonged to the bulls as fund buying and technical momentum boosted corn, soybeans, and wheat to new rally or contract highs. Wheat futures exploded Wednesday around the world after Russia indicated it will increase its attacks on Ukrainian export infrastru...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 August 2026 The Russian grain market continued to decline during the third week of August as the Black Sea blockade severely disrupted export logistics. The resulting loss of export capacity is pressuring domestic prices and increasing storage concerns as the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3775/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Trade Dominates as Yields, Supplies Face Threats
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean crop ratings declined late Monday and set the stage for stronger CBOT trade Tuesday. Funds are in risk-on mode across the ag space, resulting in firm trade and solid gains for grains and oilseeds. Iran and Oman released a joint statement saying the...