Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Crop Conditions-Argentina Corn Corn planting in Argentina has reached 47.3 percent of the projected 8.4 Mha, advancing 7.5 percentage points over the week and running 12.3 points ahead of last season, partly due to a larger early-planted area. Fieldwork gained momentum across western and southe...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the sixth straight week, liquidating a net 189,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 29.8 percent to 444,000 contracts. The selling accelerated for the third consecutive we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3425/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.6/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Cattle Futures Slide as Grain Markets Remain Under Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures extended their sharp selloff Friday as weakening cash cattle prices, deteriorating feedlot profitability, and reduced packer demand continued to weigh on the market. The inability of futures to sustain a rally following last week's bullish Cattle on...
EU Rapeseed and Products Forecasts and Crush Margins
Key Takeaways: WPI’s new EU rapeseed crushing margin models point to weaker processing returns over the next four months due to higher rapeseed procurement costs and weaker product values. Statistical forecasts call for German crushing margins to decline from €181/MT to €...
How Tariffs Are Affecting U.S. Food and Agricultural Imports
Key Takeaways: The tariff burden rose sharply in 2025 and 2026: the effective rate on imports in HTS Chapters 1–24 increased from 1.53 percent in 2024 to 6.11 percent in 2025, before averaging 5.68 percent in January–August 2026. Headline rates tell only part of the story: exemptio...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.3/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: More Tricks Than Treats
Markets are getting into the Halloween spirit, handing out more tricks than treats. There has been some encouraging news, but it hasn’t been enough to slow the broader slide. Now buyers need to show up with something other than another “Charlie Brown” rock for the bag. Somethi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.38/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.7/short ton, up $1.1 from...
Market Commentary: Cattle and Hog Markets Face Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75 to 4.0 percent Wednesday, with two officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. The Fed upgraded its assessment of economic growth from "solid" to "strong" but adopted a more patient approa...
U.S. Soymeal Supply and Demand Outlook
Key Takeaways: Expected growth in U.S. soybean crushing capacity and output, driven by biofuel demand, will increase domestic soymeal supplies, with production growth significantly outpacing demand. WPI forecasts soymeal production increasing from 65.8 million short tons in 2026/27 to 70.5 mil...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 October 2026 The Russian grain market continued its recovery during the week, although prices remained volatile across regions. Wheat was notably bullish, while feed barley and corn were slower to appreciate, primarily because of weaker export demand amid logi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.1025/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2925/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $334.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Grains Remain Under Pressure as New Mexico Cattle Border Reopens
What You Need to Know Today: A third U.S. border crossing (Columbus, New Mexico) has reopened to Mexican cattle imports following nearly two years of restrictions related to New World screwworm. The reopening could gradually improve feeder cattle availability, although more than 60 confi...
A Long-Run View of U.S. Soybean Crushing
Key Takeaways: U.S. soybean crushing began in 1911 and saw its most rapid expansion during the 1930s amid the broader agricultural and technology revolutions of the time. After peaking in the early 2000s, the soybean crushing industry went through a downturn as poor crush margins forced...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Bangladesh has asked the USA for technical assistance to improve grain storage and strengthen quality testing of imported grains. Of major importance to Bangladesh is the “technology to improve grain preservation and grain s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.55/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4125/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.2/short ton, down $5.9 f...
Market Commentary: Brazil’s Election Results Have Broader Market Implications
What You Need to Know Today: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured reelection on Sunday, defeating right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro despite trailing in the first round of voting. The surprise victory triggered a sharp selloff in Brazilian financial market...
2027 Acreage Outlook: Oilseed Expansion Continues
Key Takeaways: Total U.S. crop acres (excluding hay) are forecast to expand fractionally this year due to greater oilseed crop and winter wheat plantings. One of the key drivers of this year’s crop outlook is input costs, and crops with a lower cost profile have an advantage in producers...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview After many weeks of almost no activity in Brazil and little activity in the U.S., this week kicked off with a lot of activity in the U.S. soybean market. Once again, the sole buyer was Sinograin/Cofco, acting on behalf of the Chinese Federal Reserve, which purchased a t...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Bearish Week on a Mixed Note; Bullish COF and Cold Storage Data
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices extended their rally today, supported by several developments, including escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and growing concerns about supply disruptions. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to remove 50 perc...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Dry weather across the UK and Europe is becoming increasingly concerning for the 2027 crops as planting intentions are lowered amid dry soil conditions. Delayed sowing or establishment under adverse conditions could leave crops more vulnerable to frost/freeze events and dise...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fifth straight week, selling a net 159,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 20.1 percent to 633,000 contracts. Corn again accounted for roughly half the weekly selling...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.56/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.25/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.565/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $346.1/short ton, down $1.2 from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Crop Conditions-Argentina Corn Corn planting in Argentina has reached 47.3 percent of the projected 8.4 Mha, advancing 7.5 percentage points over the week and running 12.3 points ahead of last season, partly due to a larger early-planted area. Fieldwork gained momentum across western and southe...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the sixth straight week, liquidating a net 189,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 29.8 percent to 444,000 contracts. The selling accelerated for the third consecutive we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3425/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.6/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Cattle Futures Slide as Grain Markets Remain Under Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures extended their sharp selloff Friday as weakening cash cattle prices, deteriorating feedlot profitability, and reduced packer demand continued to weigh on the market. The inability of futures to sustain a rally following last week's bullish Cattle on...
EU Rapeseed and Products Forecasts and Crush Margins
Key Takeaways: WPI’s new EU rapeseed crushing margin models point to weaker processing returns over the next four months due to higher rapeseed procurement costs and weaker product values. Statistical forecasts call for German crushing margins to decline from €181/MT to €...
How Tariffs Are Affecting U.S. Food and Agricultural Imports
Key Takeaways: The tariff burden rose sharply in 2025 and 2026: the effective rate on imports in HTS Chapters 1–24 increased from 1.53 percent in 2024 to 6.11 percent in 2025, before averaging 5.68 percent in January–August 2026. Headline rates tell only part of the story: exemptio...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.3/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: More Tricks Than Treats
Markets are getting into the Halloween spirit, handing out more tricks than treats. There has been some encouraging news, but it hasn’t been enough to slow the broader slide. Now buyers need to show up with something other than another “Charlie Brown” rock for the bag. Somethi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.38/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.7/short ton, up $1.1 from...
Market Commentary: Cattle and Hog Markets Face Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75 to 4.0 percent Wednesday, with two officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. The Fed upgraded its assessment of economic growth from "solid" to "strong" but adopted a more patient approa...
U.S. Soymeal Supply and Demand Outlook
Key Takeaways: Expected growth in U.S. soybean crushing capacity and output, driven by biofuel demand, will increase domestic soymeal supplies, with production growth significantly outpacing demand. WPI forecasts soymeal production increasing from 65.8 million short tons in 2026/27 to 70.5 mil...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 October 2026 The Russian grain market continued its recovery during the week, although prices remained volatile across regions. Wheat was notably bullish, while feed barley and corn were slower to appreciate, primarily because of weaker export demand amid logi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.1025/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2925/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $334.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Grains Remain Under Pressure as New Mexico Cattle Border Reopens
What You Need to Know Today: A third U.S. border crossing (Columbus, New Mexico) has reopened to Mexican cattle imports following nearly two years of restrictions related to New World screwworm. The reopening could gradually improve feeder cattle availability, although more than 60 confi...
A Long-Run View of U.S. Soybean Crushing
Key Takeaways: U.S. soybean crushing began in 1911 and saw its most rapid expansion during the 1930s amid the broader agricultural and technology revolutions of the time. After peaking in the early 2000s, the soybean crushing industry went through a downturn as poor crush margins forced...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Bangladesh has asked the USA for technical assistance to improve grain storage and strengthen quality testing of imported grains. Of major importance to Bangladesh is the “technology to improve grain preservation and grain s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.55/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4125/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.2/short ton, down $5.9 f...
Market Commentary: Brazil’s Election Results Have Broader Market Implications
What You Need to Know Today: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured reelection on Sunday, defeating right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro despite trailing in the first round of voting. The surprise victory triggered a sharp selloff in Brazilian financial market...
2027 Acreage Outlook: Oilseed Expansion Continues
Key Takeaways: Total U.S. crop acres (excluding hay) are forecast to expand fractionally this year due to greater oilseed crop and winter wheat plantings. One of the key drivers of this year’s crop outlook is input costs, and crops with a lower cost profile have an advantage in producers...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview After many weeks of almost no activity in Brazil and little activity in the U.S., this week kicked off with a lot of activity in the U.S. soybean market. Once again, the sole buyer was Sinograin/Cofco, acting on behalf of the Chinese Federal Reserve, which purchased a t...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Bearish Week on a Mixed Note; Bullish COF and Cold Storage Data
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices extended their rally today, supported by several developments, including escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and growing concerns about supply disruptions. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to remove 50 perc...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Dry weather across the UK and Europe is becoming increasingly concerning for the 2027 crops as planting intentions are lowered amid dry soil conditions. Delayed sowing or establishment under adverse conditions could leave crops more vulnerable to frost/freeze events and dise...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fifth straight week, selling a net 159,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 20.1 percent to 633,000 contracts. Corn again accounted for roughly half the weekly selling...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.56/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.25/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.565/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $346.1/short ton, down $1.2 from...