Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s President said that recent wheat shortages have been...
Articles
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms Heading into Long Weekend on Dry Weather, Short Covering
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the three-day holiday weekend with dryness and drought concerns for the Corn Belt pushing corn futures higher and h...
Memorial Day Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed on Monday, 29 May and consequently there will be no Ag Perspectives report on that day. WPI's analysis reports will resum...
Meat Loaf Wisdom; Enemy of My Enemy
Meat Loaf Wisdom U.S. Trade Ambassador Katherine Tai concluded a U.S. led meeting of APEC trade ministers in Detroit today without an agreed joint statemen...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.04/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – Head Spinning Week
The Market If traders were nervous headed into the three-day Memorial Day weekend, concerns appeared to be to the upside. The lack of demand had soybean pr...
SCOTUS Rules on WOTUS
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled on the Sackett v EPA case yesterday regarding the definition of waters of the United States (WOTUS) u...
Market Commentary: Wishy Washy
Sometimes markets trade with momentum, an ongoing path in the same direction. Sometimes there are reversals. There is often a day trading open that initial...
Livestock Round Up: Pork and Pigs Under Pressure
It’s a tough time to be in the hog and pig business. California’s Proposition 12 was upheld by the Supreme Court, and with that decision, Massa...
Wetting Down Party; DeGrowth for All
Wetting Down Party Farmers, real estate developers, and industry are celebrating a Supreme Court ruling that limits the government’s regulation of ce...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.9075/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.0425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Downward Price Pressure to Remain Firm Through Q2 According to the latest official survey data from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rur...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 12-18, 2023 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 45,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were up 7...
May Cold Storage Report
April 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were up from March and were 2.02 percent greater than April 2022 as the industry continues to rebuild stockpil...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Dry Outlook; Wheat Falls on Yields, Rains; April Beef Stocks Fall Sharply
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week with diverging weather patterns pushing corn and wheat in different directions. For the central and eastern Corn Belt, the w...
Europe’s Bad Boy; Africa’s Bad Country
Europe’s Bad Boy Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is not well liked in Brussels, nor in Kyiv. Not only does he rankle Western Europe’s dem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8725/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.0625/bushel, down $0.16 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15 – 19 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish. Russia’s position during negotiations of the UN gr...
South Korean Beef Supply
South Korea imposed increased inspection requirements on U.S> supplied beef following the finding of an atypical BSE case in South Carolina. Atypical ca...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm as Wheat Posts Reversal; Soy Complex Plays Defense
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and wheat firming with increased short covering and buying interest amid oversold technical conditions and recent s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.775/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. ...
Debt Ceiling Update and Ag Appropriations
The debt ceiling and budget agreement talks between Congress and the White House resumed yesterday, after a Sunday phone call between President Biden, as h...
USMCA Action and Future; Geopolitics Drives Trade Policy
USMCA Action and Future Washington invoked the USMCA’s rapid-response mechanism against Mexican worker rights violations for an eighth time. The Bide...
Grain is Out, Veggies are In
Some members of the U.S. Congress want more support going to fruits and vegetables. They note that the overwhelming majority of farm bill income support an...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Short Covering Rally Amid Long-Term Bearish Outlook
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with short covering on deeply oversold technical conditions and a dry 10-day weather forecast for the central and...
Follow the Money
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres attended the weekend’s G-7 summit in Hiroshima. At the meeting, he suggested the UN Security Council and the Br...
Atypical BSE Case in South Carolina; No Trade Implications Expected
A five-year-old cow in South Carolina was discovered to have a case of atypical BSE late last week. USDA’s Animal Plant Health Inspection Service (AP...
USA HRW Overpriced
Bloomberg cites UKRAgroConsult’s data showing that U.S. HRW wheat has been priced above competing sources (France, Russia, Ukraine, EU) for well more...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.71/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.0625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European weather is shifting more favorably for crop development over the next week with cooler-than-normal temperatures predicted...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There was a lot of anticipation regarding the rains that were forecast for this past weekend, and most of the Buenos Aires province received a good a...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Continues Despite Tour Yields; Corn, Soybeans Score New Lows
The CBOT was, once again, mostly lower to end a week of strong selling as fund liquidation and speculative short selling continued. There was little fresh...
Cattle on Feed: Placements Higher than Consensus Expectation
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed on feedlots with 1,000 head capacity or more on 1 May was...
Oilseed Highlights – In the Basement
The Market The floor fell out of the soybean market this week as the November contract lost 48.25 cents, closing below $12/bushel for the first time in two...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.545/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary – The Bear Trifecta
Good weather boosting crops in Brazil, the U.S. and elsewhere, an extension of the Black Sea grain corridor, and a rising dollar all conspire to extend the...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Price Pressures For Domestic Hogs and Chickens Continue In a recent interview, the chief pork industry analyst for the Ministry of Agriculture an...
Livestock Round Up: Livestock Hearing in Congress, COF Preview
The House Agriculture Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy and Poultry held a hearing yesterday, entitled "A Review of Animal Agriculture Stakeholder Prioritie...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.5525/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.1175/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close...
Transatlantic Biofuel Split; Small Potatoes
Transatlantic Biofuel Split Brussels is ready to finalize its Renewable Energy Directive III (RED) with just one small glitch remaining. France and some ot...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 5-11, 2023. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 42,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were down...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Renewed; Fund Selling Hammers CBOT
The CBOT feature one-direction trade at mid-week – lower – with funds continuing to rapidly exit long positions in the grain markets and/or pil...
Toward a New U.S. Trade Policy
For many years U.S. agriculture was able to compete as a low-cost, bulk commodity supplier. Its farms were large and consolidated, enabling economies of sc...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.615/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.255/bushel, down $0.22 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8 – 12 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained bearish with the volume of trade miniscule because of traditional...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Plunge Lower; Corn Tests $5 Again; Wheat Mixed on Varied Outlook
Weak macroeconomic markets and good planting progress in Monday’s Crop Progress report sent the CBOT sharply lower on Tuesday. Corn and soybeans led...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8125/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.475/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close...
Debt Limit Spread; Agricultural Royalty
Debt Limit Spread President Biden says he will return early from his trip to the G-7 meeting in Japan due to the lack of agreement on raising the U.S. debt...
Perking up Supply
Although coffee futures are edging back up (Arabica hit a peak a month ago), prices are descending in longer dated contracts as Brazil is expected to suppl...
Proposed FMMO Reforms Submitted to USDA AMS
As we outlined back in March, reform to the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FFMO) pricing formula is a good bet for the farm bill. Indeed, reform efforts are...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Afghanistan is facing a severe infestation of Moroccan locusts in the exp...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.6075/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: CBOT Starts the Week with A Bullish Chorus
Friday’s WASDE was bearish corn and soybean futures, but you wouldn’t know that from Monday’s price action. Both markets turned higher wi...
Zero Sum Technology; Big is Better
Zero Sum Technology The center-right European People’s Party is undermining codification of the Green Deal’s goal of halving pesticide usage. O...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Olive Oil Shortage
The price of olive oil has hit over $6,000/MT on a combination of increased demand and a production shortfall in Spain caused by drought, or what some clai...
Farm Bill: Crop Insurance, Reference Prices, and CRP Reform
At President Biden’s invitation, the four bipartisan leaders of the House and Senate agriculture committees met with the President at the White House...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat prices continue to rise in Argentina’s local market, mainly due to millers’ participation as farmer sales remain low. While many mi...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russian sources indicate the country plans to extend the Black Sea grain export corridor agreement for another 60 days starting 18 May...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, and ending stocks, and lower exports compared with 2022/23. The soybea...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn is for higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up more than 10...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s estimate for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is reduced stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last yea...
Market Commentary: WASDE Helps Move Market Along
There were no major surprises in USDA’s May WASDE report, but there was enough to push up the volume in trading. Larger production and ending stocks...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8625/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.35/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – Downward Slope
The Market It was a tough week for soybeans, which must have seen a dead cat bounce last week because this week peeled back the July contract by 46.5 cents...
WASDE Bullish Cattle, Bearish Hogs
Most eyes on today’s WASDE were looking at the crop side since this is the first look at the 2023-24 supply and demand numbers. The livestock project...
Friday Mix Up
Doth Protest Too Much: China criticized Japan for its decision to host a NATO liaison office in Tokyo. It accused Japan of dismantling trust and stability...
Market Commentary: A Story of Mixed Proportions
It might be called pre-positioning ahead of tomorrow’s USDA May WASDE report, but it looked like more of the same. Corn and wheat took their dings, b...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices See Their Smallest Uptick in 13 Months While food prices this past April were up year-on-year for the 13th consecutive month, th...
Agriculture Exception; Sino Games
Agriculture Exception U.S. House Republicans are set to pass legislation today clamping down on border crossings but it required a last minute concession t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8225/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.2725/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&...
Livestock Round Up: SCOTUS Upholds Prop 12
In a decision released today, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) upheld California’s Proposition 12 which imposed minimum space requirem...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 28 - May 4, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 26,300 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were down 88 p...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sustains Neither Rallies nor Breaks Before WASDE
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with pre-WASDE position evening and consolidative trade being the primary feature. Funds tried to aggressively sell t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.94/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.4125/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Backdoor Farm Bill; Backdoor Grain Shipment
Backdoor Farm Bill President Biden has invited the top Democrat and Republican from both the House and Senate Agriculture Committees to meet tomorrow and d...
Wheaties
Decades ago, WPI’s staff was dominated by “Wheaties,” analysts who favored studying wheat. One analyst famously declared his “love&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 1–5 May 2023 Russia’s grain markets remain bearish. Russia is struggling with low prices for grains fo...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress/Conditions Send Corn, Soy Lower and KCBT Wheat Higher; WPI 2023/24 Outlook Tables
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday as the strong planting progress reflected in Monday’s Crop Progress data eased many lingering concerns about the...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8475/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.435/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.&...
Defensive on Trade Policy
The Biden Administration is trying to shore up support for its trade policy ahead of next year’s election, but some are not buying it. National Secur...
Challenging India Subsidies
A bipartisan group of U.S. Congressmen are asking USTR Katherine Tai and the Biden Administration to mount a WTO challenge to India’s use of agricult...
Debt Limit, Budget, and the Farm Bill
President Biden and the four top Congressional leaders - House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California), Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies(D-New York), Senate...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s Ministry of Agriculture said that 2023 cereals production...
Market Commentary: HRW Wheat Rally Continues While Corn, Soybeans Await WASDE
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly focused on positioning for the May WASDE report that USDA will release on Friday. That meant...
Anti-Big is Anti-Competitive; Biden Supply Chain Impacts
Anti-Big is Anti-Competitive White House economic advisor Lael Brainard bragged at last week’s anti-monopoly summit meeting that the Biden Administra...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.965/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.54/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Ju...
U.S. Pork Exporters Strong
Pork prices have been volatile but that has not prevented U.S. pork exports from rising. In fact, there is a slight negative correlation (-.28) between fro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat markets in Argentina have started to react to the ongoing drought and its impact on the wheat planting effort. This has resulted in higher pric...
Famer Sentiment and Forecast Equity Up
Purdue University released its latest monthly Ag Economy Barometer last week; the barometer is a joint project with the CME Group and is based on a monthly...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission has places restrictions on the import of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seed into five member states...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rally Extended on Short-Covering, HRW Crop Fears, Bullish Charts
Friday’s CBOT trade featured a late-week rally with wheat leading the way as traders now seem to believe that the April rains in the Southern Plains...
Oilseed Highlights - Mixed Week
The Market After hitting a seven-month low, soybeans rebounded this week, gaining 17¼ cents. It was soymeal dragging down the whole complex. There w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.965/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.6025/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. ...
Farm Bill: Farm Programs versus SNAP
As WPI has reported several times, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is the key issue for the next farm bill, much like it was in 2014...
Building Hunger; Building Food
Building Hunger The Global Network Against Food Crises says global hunger rose for a fourth straight year, jumping by a third to about a quarter of a billi...
Market Commentary: Mid-Session Reversal Except for New Crop
Corn, wheat, and soybeans traveled in the red for much of the morning trading before wheat turned higher and old crop corn and soybean contracts reversed l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.89/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.45/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. J...
Livestock Round Up: Cheese Consumption and Migrating Milk Cows
Geographical changes in dairy production have been a long unfolding trend, but today’s USDA release of milk production and milk cow inventory by stat...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Price Sees Slight Gain During Holiday Week Some analysts and the leadership at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) had...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 21-27, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 211,100 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 36 percent from the previous week...
Market Commentary: Kremlin Drone Story Sparks CBOT Short-Covering Rally
The war in Ukraine continues to be a major influence for the CBOT trade with Russia’s overnight claims it shot down two Ukrainian drones near the Kre...
Directing the Money; Nativistic View
Directing the Money U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee members are having a dispute over money already allocated. Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction A...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.885/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.305 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain and Oilseed Markets: 24 – 28 April 2023 Russia’s grain market remained bearish. Across the country, grains lost value excep...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.8/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.0925/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Crop Fundamentals Play Second Fiddle to Risk Adjustments
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday with any attempt at a rally quickly finding eager and sustained selling pressure. There was no real fundamental catal...
Dollar Direction
China, Russia, and Brazil are not the only entities betting against the U.S. dollar. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund peaked last October at 30...
Will EPA Flip Off the Switch for Electric Vehicles Under the RFS?
EPA is facing a 14 June deadline to finish the 2023-2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The date was set by co...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan flour millers in Sindh Province are “alleging” that...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Finds Support while Wheat Falls Further
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with wheat futures tumbling to new lows under pressure from Black Sea values and the EU’s recent move to block i...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.1825/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close.&n...
Playing Down Tariffs; Solidarity Lines; Mixed Africa Report
Playing Down Tariffs President Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan last week conceded that “there is still work to be done bringing...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn To date, 17.5 percent of Argentina’s corn area has been harvested. Currently, combines are in the center of the country harvesting the early cor...
Volatile Wheat Suppliers
The FAS attache in Canberra expects Australia’s wheat production to fall by 25 percent in 2023/24. This follows three years of record sized crops. Lo...
European Market Analysis
Regional News U.S. Bank JPMorgan Chase secured a license from the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to process payments from Russian bank...
EPA’s E15 Waiver for 2023 in Effect Today
On 28 April, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted a waiver for the use of E15 during the 2023 summer driving season, which is 1 June - 15 Sept...
Market Commentary: Few Deliveries, Short Covering Help CBOT Shake Off Thursday’s Drubbing
The CBOT started the overnight and day sessions with pronounced weakness and follow-through selling from Thursday’s collapse in grain values. That se...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights – Shedding More Value
The Market After losing 18.25 cents last week, the July soybean contract lost an additional 29.75 cents this week. After seven straight losing sessions, Ju...
Another Ethanol Victory; Mexican Fanático
Another Ethanol Victory The ethanol industry scored two wins this week. House Republicans trying to eliminate the ethanol industry’s tax breaks as pa...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.85/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.3375/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. ...
House Passed Debt Limit and Budget Plan – Keeps Biofuels Tax Credit
On Wednesday, the House of Representatives narrowly passed the plan to raise the debt limit and limit discretionary funding put forth by the Republican maj...
Market Commentary: Not Rosy Like Wall Street
Outside markets were screaming hot today, but most agricultural commodities not so much. Tech companies boosted the Nasdaq by 2.43 percent and pulled along...
Green Deal Strategies
It has been a year since the EU released its plan for halving the use of pesticide and slashing fertilizer use and the debate over it is evolving. The farm...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $5.815/bushel, down $0.195 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.2925/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 14-20, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 155,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 40 percent from the previ...
Livestock Round Up: Slow Start to Cattle Herd Rebuilding
Last week USDA released its Cattle on Feed report; inventory was 95 percent of April 2022, which was the highest total on record for the month of April, bu...
Market Commentary: Rains Fall and So Does Wheat; Brazil Still Driving Corn, Soy Lower
The CBOT was mostly red again on Wednesday with favorable rains in the Southern Plains pressuring wheat futures, which broke below technical support zones...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Live Hog Market Still Weak, Looks to May for a Recovery China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its latest econo...
Conflicting UN Advice; Recession/Republican Nominee
Conflicting UN Advice UN Climate Action Office: Animal-based foods, especially red meat, dairy, and farmed shrimp, are generally associated with the highes...
Overstating War Impacts
The Russians and the G-7 traded charges blaming each other for causing global food insecurity. EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski finally fra...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.01/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.42/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained predominantly bearish, but the bear is weaker and slower now. Tra...
April Cold Storage Report
March 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were down from February but were 4.3 percent greater than March 2022 as the industry continues to rebuild stoc...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces off Support; Bears Drive Wheat, Soy Complex Lower
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday as fund liquidation and short-selling continued amid pressure from the massive Brazilian soybean crop and promises for...
Karotousen in Miyazaki
G-7 farm ministers meeting in Miyazaki, Japan agreed on a communique with all of the usual window dressing. They worry about food security, the impact of t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.0775/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.53/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. ...
Playing with Numbers
The Agricultural Outlook Report published by China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs established the goal of 88.4 percent self-sufficiency...
Mississippi River: From Drought to Flood
According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the water level on the upper Mississippi River is expected to reach its highest since 2001. The NWS weathe...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Arab world is celebrating the end of Ramadan holiday. Businesses, ban...
Market Commentary: Technical, Fund Selling Drive CBOT Lower to Start the Week
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week amid a combination of technically driven and fund position liquidation selling. After the charts turned weak at...
Policy Shorts
Russian Grain Union leader Arkady Zlochevsky says Russia could export a record 60 MMT of grain this season. At the same time, he says the Black Sea grain c...
Confidence or Crisis?
The International Grains Council’s Supply & Demand estimates indicate that global carryover of wheat and coarse grains will decline for a seventh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.57/bushel, down $0.16 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Sugar High – Part II
Last Monday, Gary Blumenthal wrote on the bullish sugar market as global supplies tighten, and demand stays strong. The March Consumer Price Index showed s...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European weather patterns remain widely favorable for crop development, but two exceptions are noted. The first is that Spain and Portu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The moisture content of corn still standing in Argentina’s fields continues to fall, allowing for faster harvest progress. To date, 15 percent o...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2023 - 4 percent below April 1, 2022. Plac...
Summary of Futures
Jul 23 Corn closed at $6.1525/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.73/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sharply Lower on Weak Charts and Good Brazilian Weather
Weak charts and good weather for Brazilian crops pressured the CBOT at week’s end with the major market ending sharply lower. After corn and soybeans...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights – Down She Goes
The Market The soy complex spent most of the week shedding value. July soymeal fell 2.89 percent, July soybeans lost 1.2 percent, and July soyoil gave up 0...
Yellen Yelling Doublespeak; Wasted Breath
Yellen Yelling Doublespeak In his dystopian novel “1984,” George Orwell wrote about the way officials would use euphemistic or ambiguous langua...
Cattle on Feed: Placements Surprise
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head capacity or more on 1 April w...
Market Commentary: Weaker Day on Weather and Demand
There was red across the board today, except in red meat where there was green. Lots of variables this time of year but especially weather help to unhinge...
Livestock Round Up: COF Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 April at 95 perce...
Russian Politics of the Grain Corridor
Inspections of Ukrainian grain moving through the Black Sea corridor have been off and on this week as Russia briefly stopped processing them. In less than...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.6375/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 23 Wheat closed at $6.8/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 7-13, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 259,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 91 percent from the pr...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat as Ukraine Shipments Resume; Cattle Charts Turn Bearish
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the early week rally fading amid the resumption of grain exports from Ukraine and a favorable shift in the U.S...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China Looks to Reduce Dependence on Imported Feedstuffs Last Friday, 14 April, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MAR...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.7225/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.8175/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Ma...
New Trade Agenda; Let Them Eat Pasta; U.S. Debt Limit
New Trade Agenda Members of Congress are upset that President Biden has followed his predecessor’s approach of largely bypassing the legislature when...
Argentina Drought Solution
Each week estimates for Argentina’s crop output decline as this season’s drought takes its toll. Some say it is the worst drought in 60 years,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 April 2023 Russia’s grain markets remained unmistakably bearish; even RUB based trading indicators softene...
Market Commentary: CBOT Pares Early Losses Amid Cool U.S. Weather Pattern, Black Sea Risks
The CBOT saw widespread two-sided trade on Tuesday with overnight gains fading quickly after the morning session opened. Markets eventually found a bid nea...
Hungry and Cold; Playing with Forests; Disappointing Free Access
Hungry and Cold Europe’s environmentalists want to go cold turkey when it comes to energy. Greenpeace is suing the EU for what it calls greenwashing...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.98/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Ma...
North Korea Food Policy
North Korea has managed to produce the largest undernourished population of any country, 41.6 percent. Like supporters of Cuba, some blame U.S. sanctions p...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.765/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.965/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Planting Dealy Worries, Black Sea Export Concerns
The CBOT firmed to start the week with new crop futures strengthening on a cooler, wetter planting outlook for the U.S. summer crops. Funds were again on t...
Big Week for SNAP and the Farm Bill
The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) on Wednesday, 19 April. As WPI has menti...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina The corn harvest has picked up speed and almost 13 percent of the area has been harvested to date. Farmer selling of corn supplies has...
Placating Eastern Europe; Nationalism Not Ideology
Placating Eastern Europe Slovakia joined Poland and Hungary in blocking grain imports from Ukraine, and Bulgaria is contemplating it. Brussels initially th...
Sugar High
Sugar prices are moving to new highs as supplies tighten. Brazil, the world’s largest producer of sugar, saw output this year drop below that of 2020...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt raised the price of wheat it buys from its farmers by 20 percent to $323.90/MT after January-March imports totaled 23 MMT (up 13...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on China Buying, Russia Threats; Cattle Pull Back from Highs
The Goldman roll has dominated this week’s trading action and pressured May futures in grains. Friday concluded the roll and bull spreading emerged t...
Senate Ag Committee Asks for Farm Bill Reserve Fund
On Monday, WPI reported on the House Agriculture Committee’s Budget Views and Estimates letter to the House Budget Committee. As noted, this letter o...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights – Lots of New Numbers
The Market Another week of gains for soybeans and soymeal, with soyoil taking it on the chin. After reducing their net long positions in March, speculators...
Threat from Within; El Niño’s Arrival; Biggest Worry
Threat from Within Dissing both the dollar and U.S. foreign policy was very popular this week. It started of course with French President Emmanuel Macron d...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.6625/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.825/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. ...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Poor Demand Forces Major Hog Producers to Revise 2023 Goals The impact of African Swine Fever (ASF) along with poor sales has pushed China’...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.5225/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.67/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Mixed Feelings
The market opened much as the overnight closed but then things shifted for some contracts. Wheat was understandably down on chances for precipitation in so...
Livestock Round Up: Trade and Global Production Outlook
USDA released its Livestock and Poultry quarterly trade update this week, showing a mix of exports coming on to the global market. Global beef trade is for...
Transatlantic Duality; No Ag for Kenya; Black Sea Hurdles
Transatlantic Duality EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis is in Washington this week and had some notable messages. For one, he said that the EU&rsquo...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the week March 31 - April 6, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 135,700 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 30...
Market Commentary: Russia Says Export Deal “Is Not Good”; Cattle Prices Hit New All-Time Highs
More Russian complaints about the Black Sea export corridor agreement overnight helped push wheat higher in heavy volume. Wheat was the only market to see...