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Livestock Roundup: Slightly More Hogs and Pigs

USDA released its June quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. Pre-report expectation was for a total inventory of 73.6 million head – which would have...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.885/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7875/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&n...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for September 15-21, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 544,500 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 77 percent from the previous...

Shutdown Exports; Killing the Messenger; Checking Out

Shutdown Exports The U.S. government will likely shut down this weekend because some Republicans are trying to leverage more budget discipline and other go...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Green Tipping Point; Scale of Corruption

Green Tipping Point The media only covers the two extremes: climate deniers and climate alarmists. The climate alarmists have been winning but now it is th...

Tomato Wars

U.S. and Mexican trade officials meet in Washington this Friday for the annual bilateral economic dialogue. Labor rights, automobile domestic content, and...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023  The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian...

Russia’s Wheat Situation

Egypt was reportedly negotiating with Russia on a purchase of 1 MMT of wheat but has now gone to an international tender. Meanwhile, Tunisia tendered for 1...

Hogs and Pigs Report Preview

The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the June-August quarter will be released on Thursday. This is an interesting report as it covers the period in which...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat...

September Cold Storage Report

August 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were down from July and were 6.6 percent below August 2022 as beef and pork stocks continue to tighten. Once...

Declining Ukrainian Market Share

Ukraine has successfully sent a few ships filled with grain out the Black Sea the past few weeks, but it is unlikely to transit the 33 MMT achieved under t...

WTO Outlook; Food Safety Evolution; Subpar Eco Schemes

WTO Outlook USTR Katherine Tai last week described the WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference scheduled for next February to be the first “reform mi...

Economic Growth: Is It Strong or Fragile?

Last week, the Fed’s FOMC left interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected, but the future outlook is less certain. According to Federal Reserve...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.89/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close.  N...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s winter crop planting effort is 11 percent complete with 585.6 thousand hectares seeded so far.   Overnight, R...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Rainfall continues to evade much of Argentina’s wheat-growing region and out of the total planted area, 2 Mha are estimated to be in either reg...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...

Market Commentary: Defensive for a While Longer

The CBOT tried to recover from Thursday’s blistering selling that was primarily motivated by disappointing export sales and aggressive “risk of...

Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the total inventory of cattle on feed in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.1 million he...

Oilseed Highlights – Another Bearish Week

The Market It was another down week for the oilseeds complex. November soybeans lost 44 cents to a one month low, December soymeal is off $6.30 and Decembe...

Cattle on Feed

Cattle on feed for the slaughter totaled 11.1 million head on September 1, 2023. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2.00 million head, 5 percent...

Responding to China

EU Trade Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is headed to China, reportedly with the message to sign onto some form of trade agreement giving Europe assurances of...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Summary for September 8-14, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 307,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 30 percent from the previous w...

Market Commentary: Sours on Economic Outlook

There was red across the board today as ags and outside markets collectively absorbed the Fed’s message of potentially longer-term costlier money and...

Africa Rising; Farm Bill Split; Bulgaria as Exporter

Africa Rising Notably, the Africa Group at the WTO has asked for policy space to develop its industrial sector. Historically, the focus has been on agricul...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 September at 97.6...

Market Commentary: CBOT Rises Despite Coming Harvest Pressure

The CBOT found a bit of strength for the day with corn seeing the most bullish action on expectations of a smaller 2023/24 Brazilian crop. Corn posted its...

Glyphosate Wars; Biodiesel Boondoggle; Ethanol Future Play

Glyphosate Wars Objections to more toxic herbicides with drift issues has been more understandable than the attack on relatively benign glyphosate. But gly...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.8875/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets 11–15 September 2023  Russian grain markets plummeted on reports of another large crop and huge carryover which is not tra...

Targeting Big Ag; Milking the Cow

Targeting Big Ag Today signaled the end to a 60-day public comment period on the Biden Administration’s proposed regulatory guidance on antitrust iss...

Propane Situation

In two weeks, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will resume price reporting on propane (assuming there’s no government shutdown). The price...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7625/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.84/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt grain importers, according to the USDA, have booked 71,000 MT of U...

Market Commentary: Lower Through October

The CBOT started the new week on a bearish note with last week’s WASDE and fund selling as reported in the CFTC report creating pressure. Corn has th...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.715/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9125/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close.&n...

IPEF to Nowhere; Scale and Regulation

IPEF to Nowhere The Biden Administration continues to push its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) but at least two developments raise questions as to i...

Chinese Energy Imports: Crude Oil at Record Levels

There has been much attention to, and discussion of, China’s declining two-way trade volumes. China is a trade dependent economy, with imports of man...

American Wheat Problem

USDA’s Economic Research Service has highlighted the plight of American Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW). Noting that its production and export have been...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Despite recent rains and improvements in the wheat crop’s overall state, the Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its production estimate by 600,...

Market Commentary: Traders Earn a Weekend

In what has been an intense week of market activity, Friday’s action was at once modest but demonstrative of the volatile path ahead.  Volume...

Oilseed Highlights – Good Week for Coproducts, Not Beans

The Market Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report took a toll on soybeans. There was an attempted reversal in trading the next two-days, but today’s marke...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7625/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.0425/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...

Comparing Pre-Emption of California Pork and Vehicle Rules

Just over a year ago (29 August), WPI reported on the California Air Resources Board (CARB) having finalized a rule that would effectively outlaw the sale...

Market Commentary: Calm After the Storm

The certainty that comes with USDA WASDE numbers inevitably fades during subsequent trading sessions as the focus shifts to what some might derisively call...

Skewing Farm Output; Pausing Farm to Fork

Skewing Farm Output The activist group Farm Action is usually slaying mythical creatures like Big Ag or the $750 million checkoff programs used by farm org...

Livestock Roundup: What Meat Price Spreads are Reflecting

Looking at the recently released meat price spreads from USDA can provide some hints as to what is going on in the livestock and wholesale meat markets. Re...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.805/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9375/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for September 1-7, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 437,900 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 18 percent from the previous we...

Market Commentary: Next Day Hangover

Corn and soybeans staged reversals to yesterday’s WASDE-driven declines while wheat continued tacking higher on the report’s forecasted decline...

CBAMing Meat; Ukraine Grain on the Brink

CBAMing Meat The EU is scheduled to soon publish a revised animal welfare directive that could impact suppliers in other countries. Much the way Brussels f...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 September 2023  Russian grain markets remained bearish, however, export volumes of all agricultural commodities from...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA reduced U.S. soybean stocks for 2023/24 to 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.  Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 mi...

WASDE Corn

USDA made slight increases in U.S. corn for 2023/24 - U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and use unchanged.  The result is ending stock...

WASDE Wheat

USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24.  Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lowe...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.875/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Some Topsy-Turvy Trading

The September WASDE report has now come and gone, and we are here to pick up the pieces. In general, the bears got to celebrate National Chocolate Milkshak...

Mexico’s Transition; Just Because

Mexico’s Transition The U.S. effort at near-shoring has demand for Mexican warehouses and industrial parks surging. However, one deficit may be energ...

WASDE Livestock

Most eyes on today’s WASDE were looking at the crop side since this is the first report with field test data. That feedback, however, is important to...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel reportedly signed a wheat supply agreement with Azerbaijan and Uzb...

Market Commentary: Neutralizing Risk but Notable Day

Speculators have been reducing their market exposure for the last several sessions but today still had some unique attributes: Higher volume in corn, SRW,...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8575/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Diminishing Chances of a September Interest Rate Hike

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet this month to discuss the next step in monetary policy. As it stands now, the Federal Fund Futures marke...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Since our last report, there have been some rains in much of the agricultural region that was affected by drought, especially in the Nucleus region a...

Market Commentary: Positions Fixed Ahead of Tuesday

With mostly average to lower trading volumes and narrow trading ranges, there is some speculative comfort ahead of USDA’s September WASDE arriving ju...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for August 25-31, 2023   Wheat:  Net sales of 370,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 13 percent from the...

Foreign Corporation Holdings Tax Could Impact Capital Gains

The Supreme Court will be hearing a potentially significant tax case in the upcoming 2023-2024 session which starts next month, Moore v United States. In a...

Oilseed Highlights – Prepping for the September WASDE

The Market The September USDA WASDE will be issued on Tuesday, 12 September and most analysts believe the agency will reduce the average soybean yield from...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8375/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9575/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&n...

Market Commentary – Squaring Up Ahead of Next Week

There was direction in the market today, but some of it was a little surprising. There was some higher volume but only in soyoil and live cattle. To call c...

Industrial Planning Issues; Playing the Oil Market

Industrial Planning Issues The U.S. and EU are reportedly working on a plan to jointly impose tariffs on excess steel production from China. Hopefully it g...

Livestock Roundup: Hog and Pork Overview

With the Labor Day holiday behind us it is timely to look at the hog and pork market. Slaughter the week before Labor Day was down 4.3 percent – thou...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8625/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&n...

India’s Day in the Sun; Rapporteur Inflation

India’s Day in the Sun The G20 meeting occurs this coming weekend in the New Delhi convention center and India is making the most of its central role...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.09/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Brazil and China Dominate Beef Market

A drop in U.S. beef exports is corresponding with the cattle cycle fall in production. U.S. beef production is falling by a half million tons, with domesti...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 28 August–1 September 2023  Russian grain markets finally signaled that the new crop is calling the shots on the market...

Worker-Centric Comments; North American Colossus

Worker-Centric Comments The Biden Administration complains that U.S. trade policy has historically focused on increasing transactions and lowering consumer...

Net Export Capacity

To feed the world, countries need to have more arable land than is needed to feed the domestic population and have a higher yield or crop output per unit o...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.86/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...

Fiscal Year End Looming on Appropriations and Farm Bill

The Senate is back in session today; the House of Representatives will return on 12 August. Top of the Congressional agenda will be funding the federal gov...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and India are discussing a possible arrangement for the trade of Eg...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...

U.S. Labor Day Holiday

The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 4 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives will...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.815/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.955/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Oilseed Highlights – Down but Only Temporarily

The Market The soy complex lost value this week but the overall trend remains up. In fact, November soybeans almost moved over $14/bushel early this week...

U.S. and Canada Swine Herd Held Steady in First Half of 2023

Later this month, USDA will release the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report sizing up the swine herd as of 1 September. There are a lot of reasons – none...

Market Commentary: Sliding into Fall

It was another day of the weather and Chicago working at cross purposes. Continued heat and dryness are expected to knock corn and soybean yields lower but...

Trade Policy Pivot Rationalized

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai is pushing back at critics of the Biden Administration’s withdrawal from decades of trade liberalization. She...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.02/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Livestock Roundup: Looking at Feeder Cattle Supply

For the past few weeks, hot weather has impacted feeder cattle sales to feedlots; that’s something that is likely to show up in the Cattle on Feed re...

Export Sales

        Export Sales and Shipments for August 18-24, 2023. Wheat:  Net sales of 329,100 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 1...

Market Commentary: Technical Trading Ignores Weather Realities

The CBOT was lower on Wednesday, but it wasn’t because of a favorable shift in the U.S. weather. Rather, it was – or at least it seemed to WPI...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.07/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. ...

Return of the Recession Worriers

lt seemed good as inflation dropped from 9.1 percent in June 2022 to 3 percent in July 2023. Some politicians credited the Inflation Reduction Act, at leas...

Farmer Sympathies with Albania

Euractiv reports that 30 percent of the agricultural exporters in Albania have gone bankrupt. The cause? The rapid appreciation of the national currency, t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 August 2023  Russian grain markets remained under pressure from a good crop, however, export duties decreased to al...

Bent, Not Broken

The recent BRICS+ meeting in South Africa highlighted some of the animosity toward a world order long dominated by countries comprising just a minority of...

Food Service Energy Footprint

There is a lot of discussion around energy use and emissions from the agriculture and food sectors. There are three types of emissions that various models...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8675/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.005/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.&n...

Minor Reserves

Norway will reportedly begin spending $6 million/year through the end of the decade to purchase 15,000 MT grain each year for a strategic reserve. Although...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat harvest of 27.5 MMT this year is still about 2.6 M...

Following the Stars under Cloudy Skies

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his address to the Federal Reserve’s annual policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. La...

Vegetable Market Uniqueness

Unlike grains, oilseeds and livestock products, the U.S. is increasingly import dependent for fresh vegetables. About one-third of the U.S. fresh vegetable...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.17/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Insurance companies involved in offering policies for Russian oil traversing the Black Sea have increased premiums by 1 percent to 1.2-...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The trend for Argentina’s wheat fields is that good plots continue to improve while stressed crops continue to worsen. The country saw rain las...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.2175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: Dog Days of Summer

If not for the ProFarmer Crop Tour, most observers would be looking outside of the agricultural commodity markets for some entertainment this week. And the...

Food Inflation Forecast: Highs and Lows

USDA released its August food CPI forecast today; the expectation for the rest of the year is range bound with a mid-point of 5.9 percent. The most interes...

His Excellency Hyperbole; Expanding USMCA

His Excellency Hyperbole In group dynamics, all manner of threats are used to try and compel action. These include setting deadlines, threatening adverse c...

Oilseed Highlights – Meal Driven Train

The Market The switch in early August to more promising weather for U.S. soybeans has now turned back hot and dry with reasonable impacts on prices. For th...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for August 11-17, 2023   Wheat:  Net sales of 406,000 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 13 percent from the...

Market Commentary: Lots of Mixed Messages

You are reading this report to better understand the issue of risk. This might make you unusual since the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center repor...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8825/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.3175/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&...

More BRICS, Same Problems

The BRICS Group, a club of nations with the goal of tilting the international order away from the West, has invited six countries to join and make it an un...

Livestock Roundup: Livestock and the Farm Bill

Where do livestock issues fit into the coming farm bill debate? With the exception of dairy programs, livestock is always a moving target. In the 1996 farm...

August Cold Storage Report

July 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were down from June and were 4.2 percent below July 2022 as beef and pork stocks continue to tighten. Once agai...

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Heat, Russian Attacks

The CBOT was higher to start the day after Russia attacked more Ukrainian export and grain infrastructure in Odesa and the country’s Danube River por...

BRICS Differ; EU Agriculture Policy Update

BRICS Differ In the adjacent article on BRICS Dominate, it is noted how the five key countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting this we...

BRICS Domination

The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting in South Africa are being noted for contributing a higher share (31.5 percent) to...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.905/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 August 2023  Russian grain markets remained under the pressure of a good crop, higher freight rates, and ever-growi...

Ag Tech and the Farm Computer Usage Survey

Last week, WPI previewed the Farm Computer Usage and Ownership report. It has been released and is worth a re-visit given the implications for precision ag...

Rejecting Progress; Trump Out-Protections; EATS Failure

Rejecting Progress Two decades ago, the WTO held its Fifth Ministerial in Cancún, Mexico. At the time, Mexico’s campesinos or peasant farmers...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.795/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.275/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...

China Flips on Food

Washington goes paranoid over import dependence on microchips and EV’s, but not food despite a recent trade deficit in grub. Nations that have experi...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC said it is ready to act as a re-export center for Russ...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.255/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Feast or Famine

The COVID supply chain meltdown created anxiety over the availability of agricultural inputs. This compelled many operators to look forward and lock in the...

Argentina Elections and Trade implications

Argentina has an upcoming Presidential election in October. Candidates in Argentina run in an open, or what is called in the U.S. a “jungle,” p...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomics After Argentina’s elections and currency devaluation, it experienced another week filled with rumors and uncertainty. Financial and pa...

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  Pressure in the American futures markets continued to drive world wheat values lower last week, with the exception for Friday’s s...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...

Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory: Higher Placements Again!

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the total inventory of cattle on feed in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11 million head...

Cattle on Feed

USDA reported that U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent to on August 1, 2023 to total 11 million head in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head.&nb...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.93/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.39/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilseed Highlights - Bounce off the Bottom

The Market Early August delivered cooler air and rain showers, setting up good survival conditions for what is expected to be a return of heat and dryness,...

Friends on IPEF; Dropping Like BRICS; Dispute Acquiescence

Friends on IPEF The Washington Post is generally a friendly newspaper when it comes to the Biden Administration but even it could not countenance the White...

Market Commentary: Hot but it’s Not

For the bull’s, let us count the ways: Midwest weather has turned back hot and dry. Russia is blowing up Ukraine’s grain export capacity; the...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.1525/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for August 4-10, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 359,500 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 37 percent from the previous we...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 August at 98.4 pe...

Market Commentary: CBOT Firms on Russian Attacks, Extreme Midwest Temps

The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday with another Russian attack on Ukraine’s Danube River ports and a hot, dry weather forecast for the Midwest offer...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.815/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $5.9775/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 August 2023  The Russian grain market was not following one clear trend. Partly because of the geographical spread o...

Rice Constrained

The Philippines Department of Agriculture announced the need to import another 500 KMT of rice. The country is already the second largest importer of rice...

Ag Tech and the Farm Computer Usage Survey

On Thursday of this week, USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) will issue a relatively obscure report: Farm Computer Usage and Ownership. Que...

Trade Deficit Focus; Measuring Up China

Trade Deficit Focus The U.S. trade deficit for goods and services declined slightly in June for the second month in a row but the overall annual number is...

Slow Formal Meat Uptake

Sub-Saharan Africa is very diverse and defies a singular stereotype. Income ranges from the Seychelles off the eastern coast at nearly $30,000 per capita,...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.755/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close.&n...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s National Federation of Millers has advised that current w...

No More Mr. Nice Guy; Food System Lies

No Mr. Nice Guy President Biden has kept many of his predecessor’s market access barriers but some of his supporters said that at least it is “...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8775/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Forex Commodity Business

Exchange rates and the commodity trade are inextricably mixed. Multiple recent developments are forcing board room recalculations as to where forex is goin...

Ag Politics on the Spectrum

Political scientists and theoreticians have long debated the shape of the political spectrum; is it a straight line from left to right? Or is it a curve wh...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomics and Politics This weekend, Argentina’s primary elections were held to determine candidates for the general elections scheduled for Oct...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Moldova’s corn production for 2023 will triple in size from the prior year and reach 2.1 MMT, according to government estimates...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month.  The first survey-based soybean yi...

WASDE Corn

USDA increased their estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook beginning stocks by 55 million bushels. However, the estimate for total supply declined more th...

WASDE Wheat

USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat produc...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8725/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.2675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Oilseed Highlights – WASDE Strengthens the Floor

The Market Today’s USDA August WASDE was bullish because it showed fewer soybeans, and the market reacted by shaving almost 1 percent off the Novembe...

Land Values and Cash Rents

USDA’s annual crop land values and farm rents survey was released last week; crop land values in 2023 average $5,460 per acre. Farm real estate value...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Costs See Sharp Drop in July After a Sizable Uptick in June Food prices have whipsawed this summer after seeing a steady climb in Q2. A...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.3775/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Calm before the Calm

Early pattern recognition on the CBOT today ahead of tomorrow’s August WASDE report - bottom line no drama. Volume was slack, except in lean hogs, an...

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