USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month. The first survey-based soybean yi...
Articles
WASDE Corn
USDA increased their estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook beginning stocks by 55 million bushels. However, the estimate for total supply declined more th...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat produc...
Market Commentary: WASDE Cuts Yields and Production; CBOT Ends Lower with Weather Still in Focus
The much-anticipated August WASDE featured cuts to U.S. corn and soybean yields and production with smaller global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wh...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8725/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.2675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights – WASDE Strengthens the Floor
The Market Today’s USDA August WASDE was bullish because it showed fewer soybeans, and the market reacted by shaving almost 1 percent off the Novembe...
Land Values and Cash Rents
USDA’s annual crop land values and farm rents survey was released last week; crop land values in 2023 average $5,460 per acre. Farm real estate value...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Costs See Sharp Drop in July After a Sizable Uptick in June Food prices have whipsawed this summer after seeing a steady climb in Q2. A...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.3775/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Calm before the Calm
Early pattern recognition on the CBOT today ahead of tomorrow’s August WASDE report - bottom line no drama. Volume was slack, except in lean hogs, an...
Livestock Roundup: A New Phase for Livestock and Meat
Last week, WPI reported on the ongoing fertility problems in the broiler breeding flock which is costly to the vertically integrated broiler sector that op...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 28-August 3, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 567,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024--a marketing-year high--were up 35...
Market Commentary: U.S. Weather Shifts Again; WASDE Expectations; Ethanol Margins Climb
The CBOT was mixed at midweek with pre-WASDE positioning once again driving much of the day’s activity. Corn attempted to rally on short covering and...
Trade Without Industry; Content Moderation; Shipless Black Sea
Trade Without Industry If the Biden Administration were doing industry’s bidding, it would be negotiating trade agreements with real increases in mar...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.35/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close.&n...
Overweight Pig Farms
The value of hogs has fallen 15 percent over the past year and Quebec, Canada’s largest pig producing province, is trying to shed animals. The plan i...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 July–4 August 2023 The Russian grain market was predominantly bearish except for corn and rye. Weak domestic currency...
Market Commentary: Shorts Grow Cautious Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT posted a mixed day in light volume trade with preparations for the August WASDE that will come out this Friday driving much of the market action...
Big Picture Trade Snapshot
U.S agricultural exports through May (the June data will be released on Thursday) show that among the 213 categories tracked for agriculture, exports are d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9875/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.5625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 23...
Ag Tech Adoption; Awkward Trade Policy; Awkward Silence on Monopoly
Ag Tech Adoption The confluence of complex demands on the global farming sector including food security, competitiveness, climate change and sustainability...
Similarities of Farming and Manufacturing
Debate around the reauthorization of the U.S. farm bill is focused on the legislation’s two major functions, domestic food assistance and farm price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey reports it will allow the export of both corn and durum wheat this...
Market Commentary: Certainties No Longer Certain; Corn, Soy Lower on Midwest Rains
Wheat futures rallied to start the week on increasing conflict in the Black Sea with Ukraine targeting Russian ocean vessels and adding new uncertainties t...
Sorghum Rules
In the context of conventional grain supply and demand, anomalies stand out and that unique breakout currently belongs to sorghum. Also known as milo (grai...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn In addition to implementing a differential exchange rate for corn, exporters were granted a 240-day extension to fulfill export permits that had shipm...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9575/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.575/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
European Market Analysis
Regional News India is reportedly considering importing as much as 9 MMT of wheat from Russia to fill its domestic needs, but WPI sources continue to...
Farm Fuel Cost Outlook
Over the past four weeks diesel prices have started to rally moving toward harvest season. The question remains whether this is temporary or a longer-term...
Market Commentary: Attacks on Russian Ports Lift Grains; Feeder Cattle Hit All Time Highs
In a twist on the recent Black Sea narratives, CBOT futures were higher overnight after Ukraine attacked Russian port infrastructure in the Crimean Peninsu...
Updating Base Acres Under ARC and PLC
As WPI has reported periodically, there are several policy requests for the Title I programs under the new farm bill. Most of them would add costs, such as...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.33/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – Nothing Dull This August
The Market Prices generally decline in August ahead of the harvest and that is generally true right now. November soybeans fell 3.5 percent this week and h...
Pigs Better than People; Durability and Opposition; State Directed Morals
Pigs Better than People House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) says he will take the proverbial bull b...
Market Commentary: No Gapping Day
When the close is not too far off the open, the trading range is small and the volume is light, the price must be right. Markets continued their quotidian...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.27/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: Broiler Production Issues
Broiler production is up 1 percent on the year through the end of July. USDA’s 2023 annual projected total is 47.1 billion pounds, an increase of 1.9...
Mexican Desperation; Africa Group Wants Cuts; Climate Thoughts; Ag Sector Split?; Deceptive or Deluded; Laughable Agenda
Mexican Desperation Populist Mexican Deputy Agriculture Secretary Victor Suarez is facing a losing case in a USMCA dispute settlement case over GM corn as...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 21-27, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 421,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 81 percent from the previous week...
Market Commentary: Weather in the Driver’s Seat; CBOT Falls Despite More Danube Attacks
August has so far not been very kind to commodity markets, though it’s not as much the month’s fault as it is the fault of improved weather for...
All That Glitters Is Not Gold; All Hope is Lost; If You See Something, Say Something
All that Glitters Is Not Gold Chief U.S. Agriculture Negotiator Doug McKalip spoke at the Minnesota Farmfest this week and said “a lot of effort&rdqu...
India's Prolific Agriculture
India is the world’s ninth largest agricultural exporter. The Biden Administration wants to negotiate with India on agricultural trade access, but Ne...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.0725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.5225/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 July 2023 The Russian grain market was predominantly bullish and a big reason was the bombing of Ukrainian Black S...
Market Commentary: Rain Forecasts Trump Conditions; Soyoil Stocks Tighten; Spread Dynamics
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and wheat ending lower on continued fund selling amid bearish supply and demand prospectives, respectively. The soy...
Farm Labor “Solutions”; Nebraska More Welcome Than China
Farm Labor “Solutions” The Biden Administration is labor-friendly, and all of the labor sector lobby groups are now working the farm bill reaut...
New Era for Sweet
The world’s two largest sugar producing and exporting nations, Brazil and India, also use part of their output to make ethanol. Brazil has a long his...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.0725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.5225/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close...
Work Requirements – Not for SNAP – but Tile I Program Payments
The debate over work requirements for SNAP recipients has been a hot topic since the 2014 farm bill and has percolated up in the recent debt and budget lim...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s Forafric Global has bought 90 percent of Societe Industri...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.13/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.6575/bushel, down $0.385 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sheds Weather Premium on Forecasts of Midwest Rains
Weekend weather model runs continued to show beneficial rains for the Midwest and Plains over the next two weeks with more moderate temperatures. The forec...
New Proposed Vehicle Fuel Standards and Ethanol
On Friday, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a new corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) schedule to increase mileage effic...
Pope Joins Africans; Take PASS on EATS
Pope Joins Africans As noted last Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s effort to offer succor to African leaders in the form of grain to gain...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
The New Agro Dollar Finally, the government confirmed a new agricultural exchange rate – the “agro dollar” program, from which soybeans a...
Türkiye’s Higher Wheat Flour Exports
Türkiye is the world’s largest exporter of wheat flour, and the International Grains Council says the country will export a record 5.4 MMT in MY...
Market Commentary: Weather Rally Fades but Upside Risks Remain
The CBOT continued to drift lower on Friday with the fireworks from the rallies Monday and Tuesday fading on profit taking and more aggressive short sellin...
Preparing USDA for a Government Shutdown?
The House of Representatives passed the veterans and military construction appropriations bill yesterday (on a party line vote) but couldn’t move for...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oilseed Highlights – Down but Not Out
The Market After November soybeans hit a new year high of 1428/bushel, they slid this week by 19.25 cents to 1382.5/bushel. With 20 percent of U.S. soybean...
Market Commentary: Wait and See
There was little new to guide the markets today. The foundation involves some big supply limits like droughty farm fields and suppression of Black Sea supp...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Exports, Cattle Cycle, and Record Retail Prices
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) is having its summer business meeting in San Diego this week. While all the expected topics are on t...
Enough is Enough; Backfiring on Moscow; Political Addiction; Opposite Approaches
Enough is Enough Special interest lobbies cannot show satisfaction lest they lose their raison d’etre. However, French Agriculture Minister Marc Fesn...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.1275/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 14-20, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 233,200 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 37 percent from the previous week,...
Beating AMLO at His Own Game
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador imposed a 50 percent tariff on white corn imports largely coming from the U.S. The rationale be...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.17 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.2/bushel, down $0.4025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Lower on Rains, Yield Estimates
Rain across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday helped push the CBOT lower with wheat leading the way. Nothing has changed about the near-te...
Ukraine Exports and EU Policy; Targeting Brazil
Ukraine Exports and EU Policy Russia is not just attacking Ukraine’s ability to export grains but may be threatening EU member states on the eastern...
Too Good to be True
A second impact analysis on the EU’s Green Deal targets for agriculture has now been reviewed and still the policy is hung up as policymakers debate...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 July 2023 Russian farmers continue harvesting winter crops and the progress is quite good with grain crop forecast...
July Cold Storage Report
June 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were up from May but were 1.8 percent greater than June 2022 as beef and pork stocks continue to tighten. Once...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Doesn’t Change Bullish Backdrop
Bull markets need to be constantly “fed” with news and when that feeding slows or lapses, the rally does too. That’s largely what happene...
Black and White; Careful What You Ask
Black and White The European Food Safety Authority concluded after extensive research on the herbicide glyphosate that no “areas of critical concern&...
Exporting Food Insecurity
New Delhi is always one of the first capitals to raise the issue of food insecurity in international fora. It concurrently argues that agricultural subsidi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.6525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Dairy Outlook
With drought, a late July heat wave, and escalation of the war Ukraine, risk premiums are being priced into the markets – and dairy was no exception...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is facing continued daily power cuts as the very high temperatures...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Danube Export Doubts
Monday’s trade was all about the weekend, which was hot and dry in the U.S. Midwest and featured more attacks by Russia on Ukrainian infrastructure...
Policycrisis or Minicrisis; Food Insecurity Mirage I; Food Insecurity Mirage II
Polycisis or Minicrisis Adam Tooze is a fantastic historian and his characterization of a polycrisis whereby the globe suffers from a thousand interconnect...
European Market Analysis
Regional News As noted everywhere, the biggest news in European regional grain markets this week is the end of the Black Sea grain export initiative...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.6825/bushel, up $0.32 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.575/bushel, up $0.6 from yesterday's close. No...
Complications for a New Farm Bill
The House of Representatives may take up the FY2024 Agricultural Appropriations bill this week, and then again, it may not. First, in the House, legi...
Threats to China Soybean Demand
Hovering over the issue of soybean demand is China’s reported slowing GDP growth. Second quarter growth was reported at 6.3 percent, far better than...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Politics and “Agro Dollar” Rumors In an environment plagued by rumors and uncertainty, Argentina has become a country where normal busine...
Cattle on Feed
USDA estimates that U.S. Cattle on Feed is down 2 percent from July 1, 2022 – at 11.2 million head for U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.3625/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.975/bushel, down $0.295 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Improved August Weather Forecast Prompts Profit Taking
The CBOT pulled back heading into the weekend on profit taking and NOAA’s new August weather forecast that shows more moderate temperatures and norma...
Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory: Higher Placements Again!
USDA released two key cattle reports today: the monthly Cattle on Feed report and the semi-annual Cattle Inventory report. The surprise in the Cattle on Fe...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights - Hanging in There
The Market November soybeans gained 31 cents on the week but are still running into resistance at $24/bushel. The current price is near a 2023 high and the...
Black Sea Grain Initiative: One and Done?
The uncertainty that Russia’s invasion has brought to agricultural markets continues. Roughly 32.9 million MT of grain has been exported from U...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for July 7-13, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 170,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 primarily for Chile (78,200 MT, including 4...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Pause Temporarily; Cattle Post Bearish Reversal before Report
The CBOT’s weather- and Black Sea-conflict induced rally took a break on Thursday with traders reassessing both global export market conditions and t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.4625/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.27/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed Report Previews
USDA will release two key reports tomorrow: the semi-annual Cattle Inventory report and the 1 July Cattle on Feed report. Matt Herrington provided a detail...
Broken Record; Love Thy Brother; Genuine Intelligence
Broken Record For the eighth time, not the second or third, the U.S. has complained at the WTO that India violates national treatment when it comes to GM c...
U.S. Corn Balance Sheet Forecast
Last week, WPI published our mid-July outlook for a few – in our view – likely scenarios for the U.S. 2023/24 soybean balance sheet. To add to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.53/bushel, up $0.185 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.2775/bushel, up $0.57 from yesterday's close. N...
Russia’s Scorched Earth Approach Sends CBOT Higher
CBOT grain markets were sharply higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way after Russia warned against any ships traveling to Ukraine. The warning follo...
Cattle on Feed Forecasts; Hogs and Pork Outlook
Cattle on Feed It will be no surprise to WPI readers that the industry is expecting a bullish Cattle on Feed report this Friday. Supplies are expected to d...
Black Sea Grain Initiative: One and Done?
The uncertainty that Russia’s invasion has brought to agricultural markets continues. Roughly 32.9 MMT of grain has been exported from Ukraine since...
Farm Bill Timeframe: Lots of Hurdles
At a farm bill event in Indiana featuring that state’s two U.S. Republican Senators, Mike Braun, who is a member of the Senate Ag Committee, and Todd...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 July 2023 The Russian grain market was driven purely by a weak RUB which was registered from the beginning of the...
Market Commentary: Weather Drives CBOT Higher Desptie Improved Crop Conditions
Yesterday’s Corp Conditions report from USDA reflected the positive impact recent precipitation has had on crops, with conditions for corn, soybeans,...
Third Way Sought
Economists are debating the current geopolitical hand that has been dealt, and how best to play it. President Biden has made a major shift toward governmen...
Inflation, Spending, and the U.S. Economic Outlook
Last week, WPI’s Dave Juday noted that while the all-items CPI inflation measure has fallen significantly from its June 2022 peak, other metrics show...
Renewable Diesel as “Regional Diesel”
In 2022, renewable diesel (RD) utilization (based on product supplied) surpassed biodiesel (BD) use. For Q1 of 2023, RD has extended the gap. This is not s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.345/bushel, up $0.285 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.7075/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq is planning on building a rail link with Turkey. The proposed rail line would begin a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.06/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.5375/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: Russia Leaves Black Sea Deal; Grains Lower After Two-Sided Trade
The CBOT started the day with a higher tone after Russia confirmed that it will be leaving the Black Sea export corridor agreement, which ended Monday, 17...
EPA Effectively Clears the Board of Pending SREs, Projects Not Approving Future Petitions
The EPA announced on Friday that it denied 26 requests for “small refinery exemptions” (SREs) over the periods of 2016-2018 and 2021-2023. Ther...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 87 percent of the expected wheat area has been planted, currently covering 6 Mha (compared to 6...
European Market Analysis
Regional News All eyes are on the Black Sea grain export deal, which is set to expire today, 17 July. Russia refused to extend the agreement ea...
Apples: Picking with a Robot?
ERS’s study on cost savings in U.S. apple production is a good look at an industry adjusting to scarcity in labor markets. Washington State is...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: CBOT Continues to Ignore Bearish WASDE; Black Sea Deal in Doubt
The CBOT was mostly higher to end the WASDE week and the report’s influence on the markets now looks like a temporary blip amid a mostly higher trend...
No PLC Payments
USDA’s latest season-average price forecast was released yesterday, which included a forecast of Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program payments based on...
Cost of Production Estimates Show Little Relief, Worry on Margins
Yesterday, WPI discussed the various measures of inflation, and the drop in energy costs which held down the CPI, but not the alternative measures of infla...
U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet Scenarios
The USDA’s July WASDE was, as has been widely reported now, bearish new crop soybeans with a 52.0-BPA national yield and 4.3-Bbu crop projected. Sinc...
U.S. Agricultural Exports: A Closer Look
At this week’s U.S. Agricultural Export Development Council meeting (USAEDC), speakers touted the record U.S. exports of 2022, which reached a record...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.1375/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.615/bushel, up $0.2175 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: CBOT Erases Post-WASDE Losses on Yield Skepticism
After Wednesday’s WASDE-induced selloff, the CBOT started lower in tentative trade overnight but that move quickly found support and markets turned h...
Inflation Cleveland Style; Inflation Higher than CPI Indicates
Yesterday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.2 percent growth in June, the smallest monthly incr...
Update on WPI Publishing Schedule
WPI’s CEO, Gary Blumenthal, is recovering from a bicycle accident and, consequently, will be out of the office for a few days. His daily policy and a...
Livestock Roundup: More Dairy Cow Culling to Come
Last week we reported that all the volatility to the dairy market since COVID has led dairy producers to seek reforms to the Federal Milk Marketing Order (...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.005/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 30-July 6, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 395,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 primarily for Mexico, Indonesia, Japa...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA reduced their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 300 million bushels, 50 million lower than last month. The U.S. season-a...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 2,262 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is un...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA increased their July estimate for 2023/24 U.S. ending stocks to 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. Winter wheat production...
Market Commentary: Don’t Get Fooled Again
A bearish WASDE report and rains across the central U.S. production area sent the market lower today. USDA called for reduced output of corn and soybeans b...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8375/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.3275/bushel, down $0.2775 from yesterday's close...
Pity EU Farmers
The European Parliament approved a Nature Restoration Law that farmers say will cause the loss of farmland targeted for restoration as natural habitat. Mea...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 July 2023 The first week of the new marketing year is gone and the market is under severe pressure due to carryover,...
Market Commentary: Russian Port Attacks Send Wheat Higher; Markets Firm Ahead of WASDE
Wheat futures led the CBOT higher heading into the July WASDE after Russia launched 22 drones overnight at Ukraine’s Odesa grain terminal. Ukraine&rs...
Concentrated but Explainable; Moral Equivalence
Concentrated but Explainable In President Biden’s first six months as president he issued an Executive Order calling on federal agencies to investiga...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.015/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. ...
Pondering Pork Markets
There is still a lot of head scratching in the pork markets to try to understand the potential impacts of California’s Proposition 12. Some clarity w...
Reshuffling Meat Distribution
The OECD’s recent World Agricultural Outlook 2023-32 report notes that meat consumption is declining in affluent countries. The reasons cited include...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Agricultural Development Fund reportedly made major...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Short Covering Lifts Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Lower on Weak Demand
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with all eyes now solidly focused on Wednesday’s WASDE report. Corn and soybeans strengthened in early trade due...
Policy Compounding Compounding; Not Chinglish; Freedom and Food
Policy Compounding Compounding Feed compounders typically use computer software to find the optimal mix of ingredients (up to 900 different options) based...
Fungibility for Food Security
There is speculation that rice prices will increase due a smaller crop in India, the world’s largest exporter, and the impacts of El Niño. Tha...
Geopolitical Issues in Fertilizer Markets
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the longest serving premier in the Netherlands and the second longest serving head of government in the EU, will be steppi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat This week Argentina saw low intensity rains, but they again fell on areas that at this moment do not have any need of the moisture. On the other hand...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.995/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Russia/Ukraine conflict has again taken on an increased importance for commodity markets. Ukraine last week accused Russia of minin...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall with Rains in Forecast; Wheat Drops on Slow Exports
The CBOT ended the week on a bearish note with corn, soybeans, and wheat all in the red with light fund selling pressure and profit taking. For corn and so...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights – Rally Stalls Awaiting Weather
The Market The post-Acreage report soybean rally stalled this week. The fall reverberated around the globe hitting canola, palm oil and other oilseed produ...
Know Thy Brother; Remembering Abe
Know Thy Brother Europe and Latin America had one of the weirder policy exchanges of the week. Heads of state from the Latin American and Caribbean States...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.945/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 23-29, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 405,800 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 primarily for Mexico (111,400 MT, includin...
Atypical BSE and the WOAH; What Will China Do?
The World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) announced last month that it has removed atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) from the list of a...
Market Commentary: Some Reversals but Same Trends
Rebalancing from last Friday’s USDA Acreage report appears to now be complete as corn and soybeans traded places and wheat flounders sideways. On the...
IPEF Criticism; EU Pesticide Reports
IPEF Criticism Participants in the Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific Framework for Prosperity meet again this Sunday to try and move forward on var...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.065/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.58/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Round Up: Decision Time for USDA on FMMO Hearing
By the end of this month, USDA will have to decide whether to hold a public hearing on the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO). This would be the first hea...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Harvest Delays, Quality Issues; Cattle Fall on Quiet Cash Trade
The CBOT had an old-school opening this morning with no overnight trade as markets were closed Tuesday for the U.S. Independence Day holiday. That led to a...
Waiting for Trade Policy Changes; Transatlantic Speech
Waiting for Trade Policy Changes Seasoned Washington trade policy expert Bill Reinsch characterized the Biden Administration’s trade policy as akin t...
Global Sugar Rebound
After hitting the lowest global sugar ending stocks in more than a dozen years, production is making a rebound. Production is expected to jump 6 percent to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.7425/bushel, up $0.325 from yesterday's close. Nov...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 June 2023 Russian Grain Union is estimating the Russian grain crop at 130-140 MMT and export potential at 55 MMT...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel has the highest cost of living in the Middle East region, followed...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Shocks Still Drive Markets; Crop Conditions Worsen Despite Rains
The CBOT was mixed in moderate trading volume heading into the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Tuesday (note that CBOT markets and WPI’s offices wil...
July Fourth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets will be closed on Tuesday, 4 July in observance of the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will b...
Transatlantic Policy Revolutions; Grain Corridor Deal
Transatlantic Policy Revolutions USTR Katherine Tai evangelizes the Biden Administration’s worker-centric trade policy by emphasizing that change is...
Friday’s Acreage Report and Livestock
It is a holiday shortened week this week, but the markets have absorbed the 30 June acreage and stocks reports. As Matt Herrington reported, corn was sharp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.4175/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Investment Bank will provide a €50 million loan for the construction of a new grain terminal in the Bulgarian port of...
Weathering Drought
Moroccan grain production is highly volatile due to frequent droughts, a situation that may become more common elsewhere due to climate change. USDA/FAS re...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat sowing is progressing at a good pace thanks to favourable weather conditions, and with a weekly progress of almost 14 percent...
Market Commentary: Major Surprises in Acreage, Grain Stocks Reports; Cattle Hit New Highs
USDA’s highly anticipated June Acreage estimates and quarterly Grain Stocks reports did not fail to live up to their hype and brought several signifi...
Oilseed Highlights – Recovery Underway
The Market The week’s trading provided nothing to write home about until Friday’s USDA reports caused a spike. The two reports out of USD...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Book Review: Ultra-Processed People
What a catchy title by virologist Chris van Tulleken! In his book he asks, “Why Do We All Eat Stuff That Isn’t Food … and Why Can&...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9475/bushel, down $0.3375 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.51/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.&n...
Positive Economic Data - Silver Lining Surrounded by Clouds
There have been a number of economic reports recently that on the face of them seem very positive, but in some cases, they are the sliver linings still sur...
Market Commentary: Calm Before Tomorrow’s Storm
It has been a messy, volatile period. Spooked by drought, then reassured by showers, only to be spooked again by instability in Russia. Still there are rea...
Livestock Round Up: June Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its June quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. Pre-report expectation was for a total inventory of 72.016 million head, down 0.7 percent from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.675/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for June 16-22, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 155,200 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 primarily for Japan and Mexico. Export shi...
Market Commentary: More Rains Wash Away Weather Premium
Over the past three weeks, one has been unable to discuss ag commodity futures without a detailed discussion of U.S. weather patterns, and that remained tr...
UN Food Summit; Hill Grilling; Food Insults
UN Food Summit When the first biannual UN Food Summit occurred back in 2021, it was a hotly competed policy platform between agribusiness and the social ac...
Driver of Oilseeds
The biofuels industry gets a lot of attention for influencing vegetable oil prices but growing human consumption has its role as well. The largest importer...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.6975/bushel, down $0.2925 from yesterday's close...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 June 2023 Russian analysts cut previous grain production forecasts by 2.3 MMT – down to 134 MMT - due to wea...