The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Articles
Oilseed Highlights: Close but no Cigar
The Market The May soybean contract trade above $12 several times this week intrasession but could not hold that number at the daily close. Nonetheless, th...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Crop Program Payment Estimates for 2024
Today, sign-up for the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs closes; without a new farm bill, no changes have been made to either p...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 1-7, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 83,800 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024--a marketing-year low--were down 69 percent...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3375/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Quirky Export Sales and Low Momentum
Equities markets reacted negatively to inflationary U.S. economic indictors and spread a risk-off mentality to commodities. The dollar rose in response to...
Livestock Roundup: All Things Pork
Tyson Foods announced this week that it was shutting its Perry, Iowa plant. Press reports indicate that the facility has a capacity of about 9,000 hogs per...
Big is Bad; Big is Uncertain; Texas is Big
Big is Bad President Joe Biden has a popular proposal, increase taxes on less than 800 billionaires in the U.S. If some people worry about politics for sal...
Market Commentary: Lower Volume Except in Soyoil and Cattle
For most commodities it was a lackluster day but there was higher volume trading in soyoil and cattle. Palm oil was the support behind soyoil and cattle va...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.4125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close...
Squeaky Wheel; EATS Ugly
Squeaky Wheels Farmers in Europe have been on a rampage for months and it is good that EU political leaders are responding to the complaints. Squeaky wheel...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish against global trends and recent tenders which traded wheat, Russia&rsqu...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rally Leads CBOT; Grains Steady while Watching Demand
Palm oil was really the star of Tuesday’s commodity trade as the market rallied on the heels of dry weather threatening Malaysia’s 2024 product...
China’s Veiled Data; Unveiled Livestock Emissions
China’s Veiled Data Some agricultural analysts in the West have noted that Chinese data reporting in the sector can go missing, fail to be consistent...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.4175/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Ma...
More Livestock and Poultry Rules Coming from USDA
On 5 March, WPI reported USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released the second of a series of three new Packers and Stockyards Adminis...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and the IMF have signed an agreement for $8 billion in financing, i...
Market Commentary: Short Run Bulls Battle Long Run Bears
The CBOT is fighting a battle between improving short run technicals and bearish long run fundamentals, which is apt to keep the market choppy heading into...
Bogus Problem; Radicalism Backlash
Bogus Problem Reinforcing the problem asserted by USDA’s political leadership, the Economic Research Service highlighted Census of Agriculture data s...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.4175/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4725/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...
Spring Cattle Outlook
In the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA raised beef production by 140 million pounds based on slaughter weight and...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s early corn harvest has begun in various regions of the country with good yields, although it's too early to draw conclusions as the...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean pri...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February. The season-average corn price received by producers i...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-...
Market Commentary: Interesting Trade Despite Few WASDE Changes
The CBOT posted interesting developments on Friday, even while the March WASDE report failed to offer the same intrigue. The USDA’s latest look at U...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights: Bulls Amidst the Bears
The Market The trend remains downward for soybeans and yet this week provided a bounce off the bottom. The move reflects some belief that demand is suffici...
Biden Dictates Prices; Dictating Standards; Dictating to Meat
Biden Dictates Prices President Joe Biden tried to position himself in last night’s State of the Union address as the bulwark against the rising tide...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&nb...
SOTU: Renewing the Focus on Carbon, Conservation, and Capital Gains
In his State of the Union (SOTU) address, President Biden outlined a number of policy priorities with potential impacts on agriculture. Many of them are pr...
Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE
With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There w...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.38/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: Updates and Highlights
SOTU Tonight is President Biden’s third State of the Union (SOTU) address. It will be interesting to watch how far he goes on food inflation. In 2022...
Food Wins; Stating the Obvious
Food Wins Commercial food workers hate fast line speeds at meat processors because it makes them work harder and reduces the required number of workers. An...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 23-29, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 271,100 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 17 percent from the previou...
Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE
The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close. ...
Katy Bar the Door; Pursuing Food Sovereignty; USMCA Expansion
Katy Bar the Door Malaysia had filed a WTO dispute settlement case against the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive, arguing it is prejudicil in limiting...
Peas Please
As noted in today’s Black Sea report, the price of peas in Russia are rising as exports go unfettered by any export tax. Canada is by far the largest...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For sev...
Market Commentary: South American Rains, Export Competition Push CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with wheat leading the way on new contract lows in Paris wheat and aggressive competition from Ukraine and Russia on the e...
USDA Issues New Livestock and Poultry Contracting Rule
USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released the second of a series of three new Packers and Stockyards Administration marketing rules. Offic...
White House Hypocrisy; Support for Thailand; Green Protectionism; The Real Foe
White House Hypocrisy The economy, and specifically inflation, is one of four top issues dogging President Biden’s reelection campaign and the White...
Cotton is King
At least it is in the U.S. South. While production increased last year in Pakistan and Brazil, USDA predicts that most of the increase in global production...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.51/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Muslim holy month of Ramadan will begin in the region on 11 or 12 Mar...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Hail in India; Corn, Soy Turn Higher on Technical Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with unexpected hail and rain damage to India’s wheat crop lifting world wheat markets while corn and so...
MC13 Unsurprisingly Disappoints
USTR is spinning that progress was made at the WTO’s ministerial in Abu Dhabi that ended over the weekend, claiming progress on revitalizing the disp...
Hops Market Declines
After a decade of blistering growth, the U.S. domestic beer market declined in 2023. The reasons given include some consumers opting for a healthier, alcoh...
What is in the Ag Appropriations Bill?
As we reported on Friday, Congress passed and the President signed a short term funding agreement. Moreover, that report advised: Expect a lot of activity...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.64/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. M...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is going through a challenging time in Argentina. The decline in prices, both in the local and export markets, has been constant over the last...
Market Commentary: Next Week Won’t Be Boring as Wheat, Corn Pull Back and Soybeans Rise
The CBOT was mixed to end the week and start the month of March with livestock futures extending their rallies amid strong fundamentals. Grain trade, howev...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights: A Topsy Turvy Week
The Market It was a topsy turvy week from the standpoint that the trend is down, speculators are betting on lower values, increasing their net short positi...
Policy Quick Hits Updates
Appropriations USDA will be open on Monday 4 March. President Biden signed a short-term, stop-gap continuing resolution (CR) appropriations bill passed by...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5775/bushel, down $0.185 from yesterday's close...
Market Commentary: Leap Day was a Small Step
Most futures contracts opened even lower than their respective overnight closing lows. Things began to moderate about an hour into trading with grains and...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.295/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.7625/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...
Livestock Roundup: Reading the Tea Leaves on Cattle Herd Rebuilding
Cattle cycles are measured from low point to low point, which means that the current cycle started in 2014, peaked in 2019, and was ongoing in 2023. &...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 16-22, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 327,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 40 percent from the previous...
Market Commentary: Corn Extends Rally; Soybeans, Wheat Continue Consolidation
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn futures rising and hitting their third straight daily gain while wheat futures pulled back amid weaker global mar...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.7475/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...
Europe’s Mantel; Trade-less Trade Advisor
Europe’s Mantel Sans Viande: In three months, France will ban the use of “meat” when referring to meat alternative products. Since profit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the tric...
Market Commentary: Consolidation Continues as CBOT Contemplates Record Fund Short Position
Tuesday’s mood at the CBOT seemed to be one primarily of consolidation and mild short covering. Corn futures extended Monday’s key reversal but...
“Healthy” Food Slows Ag Approps
Last Friday, WPI reported on the status of the appropriations process; Congress has until Friday of this week to pass four appropriations bills, including...
Data versus Rhetoric
Politico reports that President Biden wants to attack the U.S. food industry in his 7 March State of the Union address to Congress. He believes his Super B...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.235/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.8425/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to increase its local wheat purchase price this year du...
Market Commentary: Higher CBOT and Corn Reversal Deny Long-Run Bearish Outlook
The CBOT turned mostly higher to start the week amid some bullish fundamental developments and funds covering shorts after the market’s recent and wi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.07/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.7475/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...
Cattle on Feed Report: Placements Higher than Expected
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report on Friday with placements in January, the most difficult category to predict and the only category to diffe...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Following the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, expectations for increased soybean demand from China were not met, resul...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was unsurprising in that managed money funds were net sellers through Tuesday’s data reporting period, which obviously coincid...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. cattle on feed totaled 11.8 million head on February 1, 2024 - slightly above Feb 1, 2023. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.79 million...
Market Commentary: New Lows to Close the Week; COF Placements Surprise to the Upside
The CBOT posted a bearish day to finish a bearish week with corn, soybeans, soyoil, and soymeal all scoring new contract lows amid sustained selling pressu...
Oilseed Highlights: Short-covering and Sucky Export Sales
The Market Nearing two and a half months of selling by speculators, this week marked fresh lows in the soybean sector. Net shorts are approaching the recor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $3.9975/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&...
Policy Quick Hits
Appropriations Deadline The initial deadline for avoiding a government shutdown is one week from today, 1 March. By that time, Congress needs to pass...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.06/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.7925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: CBOT Decline Continues while Stocks Rally; EPA Confirms Summer E15 Sales
The CBOT was mostly lower again on Thursday with funds retaining their bearish grip on the markets and driving futures into the red. Despite adjustments to...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow and the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed to be 100...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores New Lows; CBOT to Remain Weak and Defensive
The CBOT resumed its downward trend on Wednesday with corn and soybeans abandoning any of the prior day’s strength while wheat futures wobbled but re...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.11/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.78/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which...
Cost of Deception; Trade and Politics; Political Constituencies
Cost of Deception President Joe Biden like other politicians thought he made a clever calculation when he recent;ly blamed food processors for inflation in...
Ukraine's Limited Choices
Much like U.S. farmers, Ukrainian producers prefer to plant the most profitable crops. This is especially true when considering Ukraine’s farmers are...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Short-Covering, Value Buying
The CBOT turned sharply higher after the three-day weekend with wheat leading the way on a surge in buying interest. Paris wheat started the rally with con...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.1875/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.8275/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close.&nb...
A Look at Low Carbon Feedstock for Biofuels
At the end of this year the existing biofuel tax credit expires and will be replaced with the new Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC) included in the Infla...
German Broken Window Theory; Mixed Ethanol Policies; Future of Food
German Broken Window Theory At this past weekend’s Munich Security Conference, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said U.S. defense contractors...
Honey Rebounding
Global honey production fell 6.3 percent between 2017 and 2019. Culprits for the decline included Colony Collapse Disorder and the use of pesticides such a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report featured a few surprises, most notably the 11,000-contract net buying in the Chicago wheat market. Heading into the report, expectat...
President's Day
Monday, 19 February is a U.S. holiday. The CME/CBOT will be closed as will our offices in observance of the President’s Day holiday. The next Ag Pers...
Market Commentary: Rush for the Exit Continues; Cattle Surge on Higher Cash Trade
Long’s rush to the exit in CBOT futures continued Friday with the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) balance sheet projections weighing heavily on m...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.605/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oilseed Highlights: A Bounce Off Oversold but Still Bearish
The Market The oilseeds market remains bearish as South American crops progress more favorably and Chicago futures face a large American crop that is over-...
International Agency Capture; Running Out of Crap; Vilsack Shines
International Agency Capture Regulatory capture occurs when a policymaker or regulator is co-opted to serve the interests of a minor constituency. That cap...
Quality Beef Demand
Yesterday, WPI covered the export demand for pork, and how that could help support hog prices moving forward, along with some other factors like lower feed...
Market Commentary: The Terrible, Horrible, No Good Day, Very Bad Day
Not totally that bad if you were betting short, or like livestock. But let’s count the ways: New contract low in corn New contract low in soybean me...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.1775/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.67/bushel, down $0.185 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Pork Exports, Just What the Sector Needs
Weekly trade data showed a big uptick in pork exports last week; net sales were up 83 percent from the four-week average and actual shipments were up 82 pe...
Market Commentary: Bearish Long-Term Projections, Outlook Expectations Sink Grain Markets
The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with USDA issuing a bearish long-term outlook late Tuesday and traders looking for bearish numbers from the agency l...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.2425/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.855/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&nb...
More Subsidies for Scale; APEP Trade; African Humor
More Subsidies for Scale The Biden Administration blames large meat packers for higher consumer prices. Its solution has been to subsidize the startup of s...
No Over-Production of Soymeal
There are many different U.S. programs encouraging the research into, production of, and use of biodiesel and renewable biodiesel. The U.S. Energy Informat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It&r...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise
Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in a...
Census of Ag Summary – Same Trends Continue
USDA released the latest Census of Agriculture today. Typically, the release is every five years, so this is the 2022 census, updated from 2017. The respon...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.3075/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.975/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Ma...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It is expected that extreme temperatures recorded in Argentina over the past fifteen days may reduce the corn crop’s yield potential, primarily...
Farm Bill Lacks Gravitas; Paying for Change
Farm Bill Lacks Gravitas Farmer protests appear to be exploding everywhere. Of course, in Europe where it is part of the profession. But in India as well w...
More China Pork
As noted yesterday, China’s pork imports appear to have recently turned higher despite supposedly over-abundant and under-valued domestic supplies. I...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION North Africa is said to be the largest wheat importing region in the worl...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Firm in Early Week Trade; Russia Lowers “Suggested” Wheat Price
Corn, soybeans, and soymeal turned higher to start the week with markets bouncing from recent lows or recovering from early pushes to new lows. The Goldman...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.305/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.975/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. ...
Farmer/Green Divide
The recent policy reversal in Europe on environmental obligations for farmers is not being welcomed by everyone. Greenpeace warns that excluding farms from...
China’s Pork Dilemma
When African Swine Fever (ASW) struck China late last decade, animals were euthanized and actual swine numbers fell from their high by nearly 38 percent. M...
Crop Program and Crop Insurance Timeline
USDA sets the crop insurance price guarantees based on the average settlement for December corn futures and November soybean futures during the month of Fe...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Wheat markets remain under pressure as Western Europe and Black Sea exports battle each other and the American markets for export deman...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores New Contract Lows; CBOT Relegated to Sideways/Lower Trade
Post-WASDE trade saw the CBOT markets largely continue their former trends with the February report – as usual – offering only minor adjustment...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds still being heavy net sellers in soybeans and corn with light short selling in the...
Oilseed Highlights: Oil Good, Meal Crushed
The Market It was a good week for soyoil, and another downer for soybeans and soymeal. March soyoil gained 5.6 percent to end at 47.26 cents/pound. March s...
The Ashes of EU’s Greens; Redefining Consensus
The Ashes of EU’s Greens There is a lot of finger-pointing in Brussels over responsibility for originally drafting the Green Deal/Farm to Fork debacl...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.29/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.9675/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Dicamba Ruling and Impact on 2024 Soybeans
As Gary Blumenthal reported in yesterday’s Market Commentary, a federal district court ruled that U.S. EPA erred when it approved dicamba.  ...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food...
Market Commentary: A Day of New Numbers
It might have been a day of big surprises given the number of new crop estimates being issued around the world. Governments in China, Brazil, Canada, and t...
Livestock Roundup: Prop 12 Discussions and Court Ruling on Massachusetts Q3
The agriculture commissioners and secretaries from the 50 states were in town this week for a meeting of the National Association of State Departments of A...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.3325/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.885/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 26 to February 1, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 378,400 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 17 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Bears Pile into Corn Ahead of WASDE; Other Markets Pause Before Report
Typically, trading the day before a major USDA report – including the WASDE – is muted and that statement held true for all but one commodity o...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.02/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...
EU Sobers Up
The EU’s political leaders have made dramatic policy reversals in recent days that reflect a more reasoned approach than in the past. As noted previo...
Eat Your Rice
South Korea wants more rice to be consumed and is subsidizing rice for college students, the cohort least likely to eat breakfast, and is incentivizing foo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on th...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls on Early Selling; Wheat Continues Sideways March; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT ag markets spent most of Tuesday preparing for the coming February WASDE report with funds and commercials adjusting positions. Wheat futures saw...
Tax Changes for Agriculture Passes House
In a rare bipartisan move, the House of Representatives passed the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act last week by a vote of 357 to 70. Howev...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.95/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...
Tariffs are Coming; EU Politicians Cave; Unbridgeable Differences; Flawed Science Bias
Tariffs are Coming While U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump has promised more tariffs if he is elected, border measures against China are likely rega...
Targeting India’s Rice Subsidies
At the behest of the domestic rice industry, U.S. House Ways & Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) asked the U.S. International Trade Commission t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey and Russia are reportedly discussing “a new mechanism”...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink, Soy Complex Rallies to Start Week; USD Rally Threatens Exports
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with the soy complex posting a bullish turnaround on stronger-than-expected export inspections and rising soymea...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.9025/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...
Not Feeling or Sowing Oats
Only about 12 percent of global oat production is exported. Canada only produces 13.5 percent of the world’s oats, but it has a 67 percent global mar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Like every other low-production year, the dynamics of Argentina’s FOB market are greatly reduced. On the one hand, there are fewer destinations...
Farm Bill Check In
While the extension of the farm bill passed back in November as part of a stop-gap funding measure takes some pressure off getting a final bill done, there...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European farmers are flexing their political muscles and proving just how much weight they carry with lawmakers. Farmers have been prot...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Mostly Downhill
The CBOT was mostly lower on Friday with the soy complex accelerating its selloff and confirming that this week’s early strength was indeed merely a...
Fed Holds Rates: Looking for Confidence Moving Forward
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged this week at the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As WPI reporte...
Oilseed Highlights: The Bottom is Still Far Away
The Market It was the seventh week of lower closes for March soybean futures. After this week’s 1.7 percent haircut, soybeans are now trading at a tw...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4275/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close...
Bidenomics Analysis; Dollar versus Yuan
Bidenomics Analysis Inflation has helped make President Joe Biden unpopular and he’s fighting back with the accusation of “price gouging”...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Meat Up Over Corn and Beans
Markets opened like the overnight, all flashing red except for cattle. Then at mid-morning wheat started flashing green. SRW, HRS and cattle hung on to clo...
Innovate, Replicate or Regulate; Trade Policy Bias
Innovate, Replicate or Regulate U.S. Big Tech companies should take a lesson from their Big Ag counterparts – Europe is not your friend. Looking at a...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Cattle Herd at Its Smallest Since 1951
The U.S. cattle herd is still in a contraction phase. USDA released its Cattle Inventory report yesterday. The total inventory of all cattle and calves as...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.015/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 19-25, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 322,500 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 29 percent from t...
Market Commentary: Grains Turnaround Fizzles; Soymeal Surges on Domestic Demand
The CBOT saw mixed trade on Wednesday as the grain markets (corn and wheat) failed to follow through on Tuesday’s reversal and instead either sank lo...
Rhetoric Meets Reality; Miscalculating Renewables; TTC and AI
Rhetoric Meets Reality German Greens reacted to farmer angst by blaming supermarkets for suppressing prices. Canadian Industry Minister Francois-Philippe C...
Sweetly Accessible
World sugar prices have begun to moderate after hitting a multi-year high in 2023. The high of $0.28/pound last year was the highest price since 2011, but...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.&n...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 January 2024 The grain market could not withstand the pressure from stocks which remain high at this time of year. The e...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday – Dead Cat Bounce or Trend Reversal?
The CBOT posted a decisive Turnaround Tuesday with the soy complex, corn, and wheat all turning sharply higher and scoring bullish days on the charts. The...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.055/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...
Cattle Inventory Report Preview
Tomorrow, USDA will release the semi-annual cattle inventory report reflecting cattle numbers as of 1 January. The pre-report consensus estimate is the tot...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has decided not to set up a wheat hedging program for 2024/25 due t...
Market Commentary: China Economic Worries Shake Grain Markets, Soybeans End Below $12, Corn at $4.40
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with commodity and macroeconomic markets under pressure from bearish economic news in China. Over the weekend,...
Presidential Campaign and Tariffs: Candidate’s Only Difference is Why
On 16 January, we reported that the Senate Environmental and Public Works Committee would be marking up the Providing Reliable, Objective, Verifiable Emiss...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4025/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.935/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&n...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The quality issues (low test weight) in Argentina’s wheat that WPI has noted in recent weeks now seems to be quite localized in the Southwest o...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Turkey decided to reduce its import tax on sunflower seeds from 27 to 12 percent and on sunflower oil from 36 to 22 percent. Mill...
Market Commentary: China Approval of Argentine Wheat Snaps Futures’ Winning Streak; Livestock Rally Accelerates
Grain/oilseed and livestock markets are currently headed in diverging directions – with commodities involving plants and tractors falling while commo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Cow and Heifer Slaughter Second Highest in 2023
USDA released the December slaughter report yesterday, and with it cumulative data for the year. It is a good piece of preliminary data before the cattle i...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0025/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&n...
Oilseed Highlights: The Bottom is Far Away
The Market The soy complex spent the early part of this trading week adding value, and the latter part shedding it. Bearish was an increase in the forecast...
Uncertainties Abound
Newly installed Argentine President Javier Milei told elites in Davos last week that they need to rally around capitalism because socialism has never impro...
Market Commentary: Bull Wheat, Bear Beans; Corn Takes a Break
There was notably higher volume trading soybeans, soyoil, HRW, and beef today. Each driven by different factors; all appeared to be driven more by fundamen...
NGT Controversy
Environmentalists in Europe are reportedly furious over the European Parliament’s Environment Committee approving the use of some new genomic techniq...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.5175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.1225/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: 2024 Dairy Outlook
USDA’s milk production forecast for 2024 reflects a reduced cow inventory for the year and slower growth in milk output per cow. Total production is...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 12-18, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 451,400 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 36 percent from the previous...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.1075/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on China Buying Rumors, Spring Acres Estimates; Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly higher at midweek with grains – particularly wheat – leading the rally. Market chatter suggests China has returned to the U...