USDA released its June quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. Pre-report expectation was for a total inventory of 73.6 million head – which would have...
Articles
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.885/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7875/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&n...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 15-21, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 544,500 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 77 percent from the previous...
Shutdown Exports; Killing the Messenger; Checking Out
Shutdown Exports The U.S. government will likely shut down this weekend because some Republicans are trying to leverage more budget discipline and other go...
Market Commentary: Wheat Crashes on Tender Results; Commercial Buying Lifts Corn
The CBOT was once again mixed with wheat futures dropping to fresh, two-year lows after data from Egypt’s latest tender showed continued weakness in...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Green Tipping Point; Scale of Corruption
Green Tipping Point The media only covers the two extremes: climate deniers and climate alarmists. The climate alarmists have been winning but now it is th...
Tomato Wars
U.S. and Mexican trade officials meet in Washington this Friday for the annual bilateral economic dialogue. Labor rights, automobile domestic content, and...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian...
Market Commentary: Worsening Conditions Lift Soy Complex; Cattle Crash on Economic Worries
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the worst late-September soybean ratings since 2003 offering support to soybean futures while further strength in crude...
Farm Bill Delays; Small Farmers’ Big Complaint; Schöpferische Zerstörung
Farm Bill Delays The prospects for passing a farm bill this year are characterized from being very cloudy to increasingly getting worse. One academic said...
Russia’s Wheat Situation
Egypt was reportedly negotiating with Russia on a purchase of 1 MMT of wheat but has now gone to an international tender. Meanwhile, Tunisia tendered for 1...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the June-August quarter will be released on Thursday. This is an interesting report as it covers the period in which...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat...
September Cold Storage Report
August 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were down from July and were 6.6 percent below August 2022 as beef and pork stocks continue to tighten. Once...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastru...
Declining Ukrainian Market Share
Ukraine has successfully sent a few ships filled with grain out the Black Sea the past few weeks, but it is unlikely to transit the 33 MMT achieved under t...
WTO Outlook; Food Safety Evolution; Subpar Eco Schemes
WTO Outlook USTR Katherine Tai last week described the WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference scheduled for next February to be the first “reform mi...
Economic Growth: Is It Strong or Fragile?
Last week, the Fed’s FOMC left interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected, but the future outlook is less certain. According to Federal Reserve...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.89/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. N...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s winter crop planting effort is 11 percent complete with 585.6 thousand hectares seeded so far. Overnight, R...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall continues to evade much of Argentina’s wheat-growing region and out of the total planted area, 2 Mha are estimated to be in either reg...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...
Market Commentary: Defensive for a While Longer
The CBOT tried to recover from Thursday’s blistering selling that was primarily motivated by disappointing export sales and aggressive “risk of...
Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the total inventory of cattle on feed in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.1 million he...
Oilseed Highlights – Another Bearish Week
The Market It was another down week for the oilseeds complex. November soybeans lost 44 cents to a one month low, December soymeal is off $6.30 and Decembe...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle on feed for the slaughter totaled 11.1 million head on September 1, 2023. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 2.00 million head, 5 percent...
Responding to China
EU Trade Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is headed to China, reportedly with the message to sign onto some form of trade agreement giving Europe assurances of...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Summary for September 8-14, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 307,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 30 percent from the previous w...
Market Commentary: Sours on Economic Outlook
There was red across the board today as ags and outside markets collectively absorbed the Fed’s message of potentially longer-term costlier money and...
Africa Rising; Farm Bill Split; Bulgaria as Exporter
Africa Rising Notably, the Africa Group at the WTO has asked for policy space to develop its industrial sector. Historically, the focus has been on agricul...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 September at 97.6...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises Despite Coming Harvest Pressure
The CBOT found a bit of strength for the day with corn seeing the most bullish action on expectations of a smaller 2023/24 Brazilian crop. Corn posted its...
Glyphosate Wars; Biodiesel Boondoggle; Ethanol Future Play
Glyphosate Wars Objections to more toxic herbicides with drift issues has been more understandable than the attack on relatively benign glyphosate. But gly...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.8875/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 11–15 September 2023 Russian grain markets plummeted on reports of another large crop and huge carryover which is not tra...
Market Commentary: Russia Undercutting Wheat Markets; Corn Sees Temporary Bounce
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with wheat values still languishing under stiff competition from Russia. Wheat values are drifting lower despite 10-year low...
Targeting Big Ag; Milking the Cow
Targeting Big Ag Today signaled the end to a 60-day public comment period on the Biden Administration’s proposed regulatory guidance on antitrust iss...
Propane Situation
In two weeks, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will resume price reporting on propane (assuming there’s no government shutdown). The price...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7625/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.84/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt grain importers, according to the USDA, have booked 71,000 MT of U...
Market Commentary: Lower Through October
The CBOT started the new week on a bearish note with last week’s WASDE and fund selling as reported in the CFTC report creating pressure. Corn has th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.715/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9125/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close.&n...
IPEF to Nowhere; Scale and Regulation
IPEF to Nowhere The Biden Administration continues to push its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) but at least two developments raise questions as to i...
Chinese Energy Imports: Crude Oil at Record Levels
There has been much attention to, and discussion of, China’s declining two-way trade volumes. China is a trade dependent economy, with imports of man...
American Wheat Problem
USDA’s Economic Research Service has highlighted the plight of American Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW). Noting that its production and export have been...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite recent rains and improvements in the wheat crop’s overall state, the Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its production estimate by 600,...
Market Commentary: Traders Earn a Weekend
In what has been an intense week of market activity, Friday’s action was at once modest but demonstrative of the volatile path ahead. Volume...
Oilseed Highlights – Good Week for Coproducts, Not Beans
The Market Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report took a toll on soybeans. There was an attempted reversal in trading the next two-days, but today’s marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7625/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.0425/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close.&n...
Comparing Pre-Emption of California Pork and Vehicle Rules
Just over a year ago (29 August), WPI reported on the California Air Resources Board (CARB) having finalized a rule that would effectively outlaw the sale...
Market Commentary: Calm After the Storm
The certainty that comes with USDA WASDE numbers inevitably fades during subsequent trading sessions as the focus shifts to what some might derisively call...
Skewing Farm Output; Pausing Farm to Fork
Skewing Farm Output The activist group Farm Action is usually slaying mythical creatures like Big Ag or the $750 million checkoff programs used by farm org...
Livestock Roundup: What Meat Price Spreads are Reflecting
Looking at the recently released meat price spreads from USDA can provide some hints as to what is going on in the livestock and wholesale meat markets. Re...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.805/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9375/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 1-7, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 437,900 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 18 percent from the previous we...
Market Commentary: Next Day Hangover
Corn and soybeans staged reversals to yesterday’s WASDE-driven declines while wheat continued tacking higher on the report’s forecasted decline...
CBAMing Meat; Ukraine Grain on the Brink
CBAMing Meat The EU is scheduled to soon publish a revised animal welfare directive that could impact suppliers in other countries. Much the way Brussels f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 September 2023 Russian grain markets remained bearish, however, export volumes of all agricultural commodities from...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced U.S. soybean stocks for 2023/24 to 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 mi...
WASDE Corn
USDA made slight increases in U.S. corn for 2023/24 - U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and use unchanged. The result is ending stock...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lowe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.765/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.875/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Some Topsy-Turvy Trading
The September WASDE report has now come and gone, and we are here to pick up the pieces. In general, the bears got to celebrate National Chocolate Milkshak...
Mexico’s Transition; Just Because
Mexico’s Transition The U.S. effort at near-shoring has demand for Mexican warehouses and industrial parks surging. However, one deficit may be energ...
WASDE Livestock
Most eyes on today’s WASDE were looking at the crop side since this is the first report with field test data. That feedback, however, is important to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel reportedly signed a wheat supply agreement with Azerbaijan and Uzb...
Market Commentary: Neutralizing Risk but Notable Day
Speculators have been reducing their market exposure for the last several sessions but today still had some unique attributes: Higher volume in corn, SRW,...
India’s Curious G20 Outcome; Turkey’s Motives; U.S. Hopes in Mexico
India’s Curious G20 Outcome The GATT was derided for being the General Agreement to Talk and Talk and former U.S. ambassador to India Ken Galbraith s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8575/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.845/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Diminishing Chances of a September Interest Rate Hike
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet this month to discuss the next step in monetary policy. As it stands now, the Federal Fund Futures marke...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Since our last report, there have been some rains in much of the agricultural region that was affected by drought, especially in the Nucleus region a...
Market Commentary: Positions Fixed Ahead of Tuesday
With mostly average to lower trading volumes and narrow trading ranges, there is some speculative comfort ahead of USDA’s September WASDE arriving ju...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 25-31, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 370,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 13 percent from the...
Foreign Corporation Holdings Tax Could Impact Capital Gains
The Supreme Court will be hearing a potentially significant tax case in the upcoming 2023-2024 session which starts next month, Moore v United States. In a...
Oilseed Highlights – Prepping for the September WASDE
The Market The September USDA WASDE will be issued on Tuesday, 12 September and most analysts believe the agency will reduce the average soybean yield from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8375/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9575/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary – Squaring Up Ahead of Next Week
There was direction in the market today, but some of it was a little surprising. There was some higher volume but only in soyoil and live cattle. To call c...
Industrial Planning Issues; Playing the Oil Market
Industrial Planning Issues The U.S. and EU are reportedly working on a plan to jointly impose tariffs on excess steel production from China. Hopefully it g...
Livestock Roundup: Hog and Pork Overview
With the Labor Day holiday behind us it is timely to look at the hog and pork market. Slaughter the week before Labor Day was down 4.3 percent – thou...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8625/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Declining Crop Ratings Push CBOT Higher; Wheat Rallies on Russian Attacks
Tuesday’s surprise (but not entirely unexpected) decline in U.S. corn and soybean conditions ratings, in tandem with more Russian attacks on Ukrainia...
India’s Day in the Sun; Rapporteur Inflation
India’s Day in the Sun The G20 meeting occurs this coming weekend in the New Delhi convention center and India is making the most of its central role...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.09/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Brazil and China Dominate Beef Market
A drop in U.S. beef exports is corresponding with the cattle cycle fall in production. U.S. beef production is falling by a half million tons, with domesti...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 August–1 September 2023 Russian grain markets finally signaled that the new crop is calling the shots on the market...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Ratings Hit Five-Year Lows; Wheat Beats a Bearish Drum
The CBOT started the holiday-shortened week in a lackluster manner with the soy complex sinking lower, largely on weaker palm oil values and soymeal delive...
Worker-Centric Comments; North American Colossus
Worker-Centric Comments The Biden Administration complains that U.S. trade policy has historically focused on increasing transactions and lowering consumer...
Net Export Capacity
To feed the world, countries need to have more arable land than is needed to feed the domestic population and have a higher yield or crop output per unit o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.86/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...
Fiscal Year End Looming on Appropriations and Farm Bill
The Senate is back in session today; the House of Representatives will return on 12 August. Top of the Congressional agenda will be funding the federal gov...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and India are discussing a possible arrangement for the trade of Eg...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...
Market Commentary: Futures Unfazed by Heat but Barge Rates Soar; Crush Report Shows Soyoil Demand
The CBOT was mostly flat in quiet trade to end the week with traders showing little concern for a weekend of hot, dry weather for most of the crop-growing...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 4 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives will...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.815/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.955/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Oilseed Highlights – Down but Only Temporarily
The Market The soy complex lost value this week but the overall trend remains up. In fact, November soybeans almost moved over $14/bushel early this week...
U.S. and Canada Swine Herd Held Steady in First Half of 2023
Later this month, USDA will release the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report sizing up the swine herd as of 1 September. There are a lot of reasons – none...
Market Commentary: Sliding into Fall
It was another day of the weather and Chicago working at cross purposes. Continued heat and dryness are expected to knock corn and soybean yields lower but...
Trade Policy Pivot Rationalized
U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai is pushing back at critics of the Biden Administration’s withdrawal from decades of trade liberalization. She...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.02/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Livestock Roundup: Looking at Feeder Cattle Supply
For the past few weeks, hot weather has impacted feeder cattle sales to feedlots; that’s something that is likely to show up in the Cattle on Feed re...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 18-24, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 329,100 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 1...
Market Commentary: Technical Trading Ignores Weather Realities
The CBOT was lower on Wednesday, but it wasn’t because of a favorable shift in the U.S. weather. Rather, it was – or at least it seemed to WPI...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.07/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. ...
Return of the Recession Worriers
lt seemed good as inflation dropped from 9.1 percent in June 2022 to 3 percent in July 2023. Some politicians credited the Inflation Reduction Act, at leas...
Farmer Sympathies with Albania
Euractiv reports that 30 percent of the agricultural exporters in Albania have gone bankrupt. The cause? The rapid appreciation of the national currency, t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under pressure from a good crop, however, export duties decreased to al...
Market Commentary: Paris Contract Leads Wheat Lower; Better Conditions Pressure Corn, Soy
The CBOT was entirely red across the major ag commodities Tuesday as weak technical conditions and better than expected crop conditions pressured trader se...
Bent, Not Broken
The recent BRICS+ meeting in South Africa highlighted some of the animosity toward a world order long dominated by countries comprising just a minority of...
Food Service Energy Footprint
There is a lot of discussion around energy use and emissions from the agriculture and food sectors. There are three types of emissions that various models...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8675/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.005/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.&n...
Minor Reserves
Norway will reportedly begin spending $6 million/year through the end of the decade to purchase 15,000 MT grain each year for a strategic reserve. Although...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat harvest of 27.5 MMT this year is still about 2.6 M...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Adjust to New Paradigm; Feeder Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Nears Support
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with soybeans surging early on the hot, dry conditions last week and forecast for this week, with an added boost from...
Following the Stars under Cloudy Skies
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his address to the Federal Reserve’s annual policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. La...
Vegetable Market Uniqueness
Unlike grains, oilseeds and livestock products, the U.S. is increasingly import dependent for fresh vegetables. About one-third of the U.S. fresh vegetable...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.17/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Insurance companies involved in offering policies for Russian oil traversing the Black Sea have increased premiums by 1 percent to 1.2-...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The trend for Argentina’s wheat fields is that good plots continue to improve while stressed crops continue to worsen. The country saw rain las...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.2175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Dog Days of Summer
If not for the ProFarmer Crop Tour, most observers would be looking outside of the agricultural commodity markets for some entertainment this week. And the...
Food Inflation Forecast: Highs and Lows
USDA released its August food CPI forecast today; the expectation for the rest of the year is range bound with a mid-point of 5.9 percent. The most interes...
His Excellency Hyperbole; Expanding USMCA
His Excellency Hyperbole In group dynamics, all manner of threats are used to try and compel action. These include setting deadlines, threatening adverse c...
Oilseed Highlights – Meal Driven Train
The Market The switch in early August to more promising weather for U.S. soybeans has now turned back hot and dry with reasonable impacts on prices. For th...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 11-17, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 406,000 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 13 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Lots of Mixed Messages
You are reading this report to better understand the issue of risk. This might make you unusual since the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center repor...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8825/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.3175/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&...
More BRICS, Same Problems
The BRICS Group, a club of nations with the goal of tilting the international order away from the West, has invited six countries to join and make it an un...
Livestock Roundup: Livestock and the Farm Bill
Where do livestock issues fit into the coming farm bill debate? With the exception of dairy programs, livestock is always a moving target. In the 1996 farm...
August Cold Storage Report
July 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were down from June and were 4.2 percent below July 2022 as beef and pork stocks continue to tighten. Once agai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Heat, Russian Attacks
The CBOT was higher to start the day after Russia attacked more Ukrainian export and grain infrastructure in Odesa and the country’s Danube River por...
BRICS Differ; EU Agriculture Policy Update
BRICS Differ In the adjacent article on BRICS Dominate, it is noted how the five key countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting this we...
BRICS Domination
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting in South Africa are being noted for contributing a higher share (31.5 percent) to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.905/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under the pressure of a good crop, higher freight rates, and ever-growi...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Falls in Technical Selloff; Corn, Soybeans Lower on Tour Results
The soil moisture-sapping Midwest heatwave is still ongoing, but you might not know that from the CBOT’s action on Tuesday. Both corn and soybeans &n...
Ag Tech and the Farm Computer Usage Survey
Last week, WPI previewed the Farm Computer Usage and Ownership report. It has been released and is worth a re-visit given the implications for precision ag...
Rejecting Progress; Trump Out-Protections; EATS Failure
Rejecting Progress Two decades ago, the WTO held its Fifth Ministerial in Cancún, Mexico. At the time, Mexico’s campesinos or peasant farmers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.795/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.275/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...
China Flips on Food
Washington goes paranoid over import dependence on microchips and EV’s, but not food despite a recent trade deficit in grub. Nations that have experi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC said it is ready to act as a re-export center for Russ...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Ukraine Starts Export Corridor; Soy Rallies on Scorching Forecast
The U.S. weather was just as hot and dry over the weekend as expected and this week’s outlook is unchanged with scorching temperatures predicted for...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.255/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Follow the Rhetoric; Calculating Industrial Policy; Freeing the Golden Goose
Follow the Rhetoric The term “global warming” evolved to “climate change” and then to “climate crisis.” Each new framin...
Feast or Famine
The COVID supply chain meltdown created anxiety over the availability of agricultural inputs. This compelled many operators to look forward and lock in the...
Argentina Elections and Trade implications
Argentina has an upcoming Presidential election in October. Candidates in Argentina run in an open, or what is called in the U.S. a “jungle,” p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics After Argentina’s elections and currency devaluation, it experienced another week filled with rumors and uncertainty. Financial and pa...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Pressure in the American futures markets continued to drive world wheat values lower last week, with the exception for Friday’s s...
Market Commentary: Midwest and CBOT Heat Up; Hog Rally Eases Discount; Cattle Supplies Tighten
The CBOT was almost uniformly higher to end the week as crop markets are increasingly concerned about the coming two-week weather forecast. The next week w...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...
Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory: Higher Placements Again!
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the total inventory of cattle on feed in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11 million head...
Cattle on Feed
USDA reported that U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent to on August 1, 2023 to total 11 million head in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head.&nb...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.93/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.39/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights - Bounce off the Bottom
The Market Early August delivered cooler air and rain showers, setting up good survival conditions for what is expected to be a return of heat and dryness,...
Friends on IPEF; Dropping Like BRICS; Dispute Acquiescence
Friends on IPEF The Washington Post is generally a friendly newspaper when it comes to the Biden Administration but even it could not countenance the White...
Market Commentary: Hot but it’s Not
For the bull’s, let us count the ways: Midwest weather has turned back hot and dry. Russia is blowing up Ukraine’s grain export capacity; the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.1525/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 4-10, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 359,500 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 37 percent from the previous we...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 August at 98.4 pe...
Refusing to be Boxed; Nobody’s Right - Everybody’s Wrong; No Surprise on GMO Corn
Refusing to be Boxed President Biden has likely done as much or more on the environment than any other White House occupant but that does not satisfy the z...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms on Russian Attacks, Extreme Midwest Temps
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday with another Russian attack on Ukraine’s Danube River ports and a hot, dry weather forecast for the Midwest offer...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.815/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $5.9775/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 August 2023 The Russian grain market was not following one clear trend. Partly because of the geographical spread o...
Rice Constrained
The Philippines Department of Agriculture announced the need to import another 500 KMT of rice. The country is already the second largest importer of rice...
Market Commentary: CBOT Breaks Support on Crop Ratings, China Data; World Water Worries
The CBOT was sharply lower for the day with wheat, corn, and soybeans all breaking major technical support points. Yesterday’s better-than-expected C...
Ag Tech and the Farm Computer Usage Survey
On Thursday of this week, USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) will issue a relatively obscure report: Farm Computer Usage and Ownership. Que...
Trade Deficit Focus; Measuring Up China
Trade Deficit Focus The U.S. trade deficit for goods and services declined slightly in June for the second month in a row but the overall annual number is...
Slow Formal Meat Uptake
Sub-Saharan Africa is very diverse and defies a singular stereotype. Income ranges from the Seychelles off the eastern coast at nearly $30,000 per capita,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.755/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close.&n...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s National Federation of Millers has advised that current w...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Focus on Weather, Carryout; Wheat Rebounds from Major Support
The CBOT found a bit of strength following a generally bearish August WASDE with soybeans playing the role of upside leader on a newly hot, dry two-week Mi...
No More Mr. Nice Guy; Food System Lies
No Mr. Nice Guy President Biden has kept many of his predecessor’s market access barriers but some of his supporters said that at least it is “...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8775/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Forex Commodity Business
Exchange rates and the commodity trade are inextricably mixed. Multiple recent developments are forcing board room recalculations as to where forex is goin...
Ag Politics on the Spectrum
Political scientists and theoreticians have long debated the shape of the political spectrum; is it a straight line from left to right? Or is it a curve wh...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics and Politics This weekend, Argentina’s primary elections were held to determine candidates for the general elections scheduled for Oct...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Moldova’s corn production for 2023 will triple in size from the prior year and reach 2.1 MMT, according to government estimates...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month. The first survey-based soybean yi...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased their estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook beginning stocks by 55 million bushels. However, the estimate for total supply declined more th...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat produc...
Market Commentary: WASDE Cuts Yields and Production; CBOT Ends Lower with Weather Still in Focus
The much-anticipated August WASDE featured cuts to U.S. corn and soybean yields and production with smaller global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wh...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8725/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.2675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights – WASDE Strengthens the Floor
The Market Today’s USDA August WASDE was bullish because it showed fewer soybeans, and the market reacted by shaving almost 1 percent off the Novembe...
Land Values and Cash Rents
USDA’s annual crop land values and farm rents survey was released last week; crop land values in 2023 average $5,460 per acre. Farm real estate value...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Costs See Sharp Drop in July After a Sizable Uptick in June Food prices have whipsawed this summer after seeing a steady climb in Q2. A...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.3775/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Calm before the Calm
Early pattern recognition on the CBOT today ahead of tomorrow’s August WASDE report - bottom line no drama. Volume was slack, except in lean hogs, an...