On Tuesday, WPI reported that the omnibus appropriations bill included the Growing Climate Solutions Act, prior to farm bill consideration. The legislation...
Articles
Export Sales
Export Sales for Dec 9-15, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 334,200 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for unknown destinations (86,000 MT), Jap...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.6225/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&...
Pre-Holiday Trading
Today was more like what is expected just before a major holiday. Trading volume was generally lower for everything but the live cattle contract. February...
Zynismus; Fleischpreise; Good/Bad Trading; New Ag Trade Leadership
Zynismus German Finance Minister Christian Lindner urged the U.S. to apply “friendshoring” by giving American taxpayer EV subsidies to German a...
Livestock Roundup: COF and Hogs and Pigs
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 December at 97 pe...
Consumer Confidence, Blizzard Worries Lift Macro Markets and CBOT
It was a rare day in the markets as the major CBOT, CME, and macroeconomic markets all posted strong gains for the day. However, the reasons for bullishnes...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health China Lifts Restrictions, COVID Case Counts Soar The fears of the central government about the near-term impact of shifting away from its zer...
ANZ Split; Labor Key to PA
Anz Split The Australia-New Zealand relationship is very tight, with both nations freely trading with one another and generally sharing positions on foreig...
Let Us Say There’s a Problem
Grain and livestock products are the primary delivery sources for dietary calories, yet the accompaniment of a salad provides additional micronutrients and...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.6225/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.6775/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 – 16 December 2022 Russian grain markets remain bearish with many factors putting pressure on the market inclu...
Market Commentary: Wheat Futures Ignore Winter Storm; Soy Complex Rallies Again
The CBOT is starting to show its typical pre-holiday quieting of trade and volatility but is not without a few surprises. The soy complex was the upside le...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.52/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.505/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. J...
Notable Policy Shorts
Defining National Security: U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said the WTO “is getting itself on very, very thin ice” by ruling that Trum...
Yams versus Sweet Potatoes
Yams and sweet potatoes are easily confused and yet they are very different crops, including in global trade. Yams are starchier are more like potatoes, wh...
Agreement on Omnibus Appropriations Bill Reached
Yesterday, we noted that Congress must pass an omnibus appropriations bill by Friday to keep the government open, and that the Senate was in the driver&rsq...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has received a $3 billion 46-month loan from the IMF with extra sup...
Market Commentary: Argy Rains Pressure CBOT; Soymeal Breaks Support; Storm System Threatens U.S. Wheat
The CBOT was mostly lower in early week trade with traders still exiting positions ahead of the next two weeks’ holidays. Fundamental news was light,...
SUR without Mirror Clause; Mexico GM Corn and 2023 Outlook
SUR without Mirror Clause The EU decided this past weekend to exempt agriculture from its revised Emmissions Trading Scheme, for now, but is under increasi...
Weighing What to Plant
The battle for acres between soybeans and corn is well known but other crops are also considered by producers. For the top three cereal grain crops, there...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.4725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.485/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.&n...
House Republican Study Committee Budget and Farm Bill Plans
Congress is working on an omnibus appropriations bill to keep the government open, facing a funding deadline of 23 December following the passage of a a sh...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine harvest keeps moving at a good pace and the national average yield is increasing as combines enter areas in the center and south of Bue...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises While Grains Fall in Choppy Trade; Hogs Post $4 Rally
The CBOT was relatively calm on Friday despite the ongoing meltdown in macroeconomic markets. Corn traded both sides of unchanged before ending fractionall...
FTC Updating “Green Guides” for Labeling
Food product label claims are an important aspect of food product marketing, and a standard that is constantly evolving. In the early 1990s, nutrition was...
End of Exporting; Importing is Special; Alley-way Pet Transfers
End of Exporting Humans have traded food for millennia, from the luxuries of the spice trade and the Silk Road to wheat bartering in the Middle East/North...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.53/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.535/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights – Celebrity Crop
The Market Soybeans hit a three-month peak last week, but profits were taken Monday and after that they could not fully recover. The January contract lost...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.535/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5725/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. J...
Market Commentary: Macro Slam
Last half December is generally quiet and rangebound in the markets as the B Team is instructed to ride out the holidays in a caution mode. Except for the...
Livestock Roundup: Hog and Pork Market
As we reported on Tuesday, the December WASDE reduced pork production slightly for 2022 based on lighter carcass weights, which were down about a pound fro...
War of Words; Wasted Breath; Power of Trade Agreements
War of Words The U.S. and China never miss a chance to criticize the other in international fora and that includes meetings in Geneva. At the WTO’s 1...
Export Sales
Export Sales for Dec 2-8, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 469,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for unknown destinations (164,000 MT), Sout...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rise on Bull Spreading; Corn, Wheat Drift Lower in Light Volume
The CBOT traded a quiet day at mid-week with corn and wheat pushing lower and bull spreading developing in soybeans and soymeal. The soy complex remains th...
TPA Needed; Mirror Clauses; Digital Farming
TPA Needed The Biden Administration initially placed U.S. trade policy initiatives on ice pending what it described as building back better U.S. economic c...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.505/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4925/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 - 9 December 2022 Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia is revamping its positions on grains and oilseeds market...
Planting the Solution to High Food Prices
U.S. President Joe Biden's departing economic adviser, Brian Deese, said this morning that food prices are still too high and that it remains an area where...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Surges Again; Lower U.S. Dollar Sends Wheat, Corn to Early Gains
The major feature of the CBOT on Tuesday was the rally in all legs of the soy crush. Soybeans, soyoil, and to a lesser extent, soymeal, all posted strong g...
WASDE Livestock Forecast and CPI
The Word Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report marginally increased the forecast for total red meat and broiler production by 0.1 percent...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.535/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5075/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Politics and Food Safety; India’s G20 Leadership; Good for Pork and Eggs
Politics and Food Safety Considering food security concerns, a majority on the EU Council has asked the Directorate for Health and Food Safety to provide a...
Remodeling U.S.-Africa Relationship
Today kicks off the Biden White House hosting leaders from Africa for the U.S.-Africa Leaders’ Summit. Officials from the region want an extension of...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MENA region grain importers have been assured by Ukraine shippers that th...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Flips Recent Trends; Corn, Wheat Rally After Russia Attacks Odessa Port
The CBOT essentially abandoned its existing trends on Monday and volatility was pronounced, especially in the soy complex. For the past few weeks, soybeans...
Counter-intuitive; Food Trade Rebound
Counter-intuitive Short-sellers are disliked by most, including corporate executives, politicians and regulators. Yet, research data shows that they contri...
Inflation and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data tomorrow. The pre-report expectation is for an annual rate of 7.3 percent (...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.54/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5475/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. Ja...
Latin American Political Stability
Political instability should be a threat to food security, though that does not appear to be the case in Latin America. The UN Food and Agriculture Organiz...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Dry weather and a sweltering heat wave allowed for a rapid advance of the wheat harvest and an even earlier harvest date in the southern part of the...
WASDE Soybeans
Domestics U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23 are unchanged from last month. USDA explained that due to their review of EPA's recent...
WASDE Corn
U.S. domestic corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels due to slow sales. As a result, corn ending stocks are raised 75 million bushels. The...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. domestic wheat data is unchanged from last month. The global wheat supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million on reduced production for...
Market Commentary: USDA Cuts Corn Exports; Argy Wheat Crop Falls to 12.5 MMT; Cattle Take Back Early Losses
The December WASDE made few changes to its outlook for the world grain supply and demand situation, which left the CBOT to essentially continue its existin...
IPEF Lacks Leverage; Climate Import Barriers; Export Restrictions Failed
IPEF Lacks Leverage The U.S. will table actual text on some key issues at the soon to start next meeting of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) coun...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights – Shake it Up
The Market Soybeans were in the green on Friday morning until USDA released its bearish December WASDE report. Traders had expected U.S. carryover stocks t...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.44/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.3425/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...
Temporary E15 Waiver Made a Difference in 2022
Ethanol blending rates increased in 2022 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), especially during this summer. In April the Biden EPA is...
Market Commentary: A Tale of Tails
Wheat and corn continue to trade on one edge of the distribution while soybeans and soymeal chase the other side. The continuing trend is for declines in t...
Balancing Act; Mercosur Collapse
Balancing Act On the outskirts of the EU’s annual Outlook conference today, Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski stated that there is the ne...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.425/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4625/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&n...
Export Sales
Export Sales for Nov 25 - Dec 1, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 189,900 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were primarily for China (65,000 MT), Iraq (50...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle Contract Library
Yesterday, USDA released the regulation for the Cattle Contract Library pilot program, a provision that was included in the 2022 appropriations bill which...
Market Commentary: The Dead Cat Bounces Again in Wheat; Soymeal Hits Fresh Highs on Argy Weather
The CBOT seemed to start looking ahead to Friday’s December WASDE from the USDA at mid-week, which created a temporary, at least, pause in the sellin...
Monoculture Phobia
We are idiots. There is a certain elegance to New Age agriculture. Miles and miles of fields dedicated to either corn or soybeans are so vainly contrived b...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health New COVID-19 Cases Fall By A Third, Beijing Lifts Restrictions The sharp run-up in new coronavirus cases in November have quickly fallen at t...
Bright Side is Meat Trade
Rabobank says it sees an animal protein production slowdown in 2023, led by beef since it is the downside of the U.S. cattle cycle, but continued expansion...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.4125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.495/bushel, up $0.205 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 Novermber – 2 December 2022 With the UN humanitarian corridor back in place, Russia is reportedly procrastinating with insp...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Highs New Highs; Cattle, Hogs Plunge Lower; Weakness in Corn, Wheat Continues
Soymeal was the upside leader (and one of the few markets to finish higher) on Tuesday as a combination of tight spot supplies and strong feed demand bolst...
2023 Farm Bill Dynamics; Deforestation versus CO2
2023 Farm Bill Dynamics A Farm Foundation session today perusing the dynamics of writing the 2023 Farm Bill had several key takeaways: Political Dynamic: T...
Japan’s Beef Imports
The U.S. and Japan struck an initial agreement in 1988 that reduced the barrier to imports of American beef. This year the two countries signed an updated...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.3725/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.29/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
EPA’s Estimated Impact of Approving Canola Oil as Renewable Diesel
As mentioned on Friday 2 December, in a separate proposed rule issued with the RVOs, EPA finalized an approved pathway for canola oil to be used in renewab...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan recently received very good rainfalls which the Ag Ministry says b...
Market Commentary: CBOT Selloff Intensifies; Aussie Wheat Crop Gets Bigger
Monday offered little reprieve from the CBOT’s recent trends with the selloffs in soyoil and wheat intensifying. Funds were net sellers in both marke...
TTC Yes, IRA No; Industrial Policy Caution; IPEF to Senate
TTC Yes, IRA No Despite French President Emmanuel Macron’s high profile State Dinner with President Joe Biden last week, modifying the Inflation Redu...
USA Lost Benefits of CPTPP
The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership entered into force in 2019 without the U.S. as a member. Although four years of trade data plus...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.405/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.39/bushel, down $0.22 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Another Look at the RVOs for Ethanol
On Friday 2 December, WPI broke down the proposed 2023 - 2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The rule was 692 pages...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest reached almost 25 percent of the area last week. Harvesting in the north of the country is considered finished and yi...
Market Commentary: RVOs Sink Soyoil; Funds Hasten Corn, Wheat Selling; Farm Income Rises
The impacts and implications of the EPA’s newest renewable fuel obligations continue to ripple through the CBOT markets. Soyoil futures sold off shar...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.4625/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.61/bushel, down $0.22 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Oilseed Highlights – Volatility de Jour
The Market Now this is volatility. January soybeans hit a two-month high on Wednesday, and on Thursday, January soyoil closed limit down. It has been a lon...
Endless Stalemate; Wages and Growth
Endless Stalemate U.S. agricultural trade lobbyists are becoming frustrated that two key nominees are being held up on Capitol Hill. However, part of the p...
Proposed RVOs: Canola Oil and Electric Vehicles are the Winners
The EPA released the proposed required volume obligations for 2023 through 2025 yesterday. Below is a summary of the proposed volumes by category. The top...
Market Commentary: More Braking
Traders continue to step on the brakes but have not yet broken any lines of support but are getting close. Soyoil dragged the complex lower as it hit the d...
Loss of Leverage
President Trump’s trade war taught other countries a lesson – that the U.S. is not a reliable trading partner. China is now boosting corn impor...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Prices Continue Bullish
Live cattle negotiated prices in the south hit $155/cwt this week, while in the north they reached $157, and still some sellers held out for more. Negotiat...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.83/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Export Sales
Export Sales for Nov. 18-24, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 155,500 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for Algeria (58,300 MT, including decreases 1,...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Bounce in Wheat; Soy Extends its Rally; EPA RVOs Still Pending
The CBOT was mostly higher at mid-week with soymeal and soybeans leading the way in a demand-fueled rally. Wheat traded sideways for the morning but eventu...
China In-Country Analysis
Public Health COVID Restrictions Eased in Some Key Cities, Tension Lingers The recent public protests in Shanghai and Beijing marked a level of civil unres...
Strange Bedfellows; Lobby Opportunity; Labor Hurdle
Strange Bedfellows The oil industry and U.S. agriculture have long conflicted with one another. The oil industry strongly opposed the ethanol blending mand...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.67/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.955/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 November 2022 The feature of the week remains the same – extension of the UN humanitarian Black Sea corridor under UN au...
Market Commentary: Soy Rally Continues; Wheat, Corn Drift Lower; House Moves to Preempt Rail Strike
The CBOT largely continued its prior trends on Tuesday with soybeans adding to Monday’s rally despite a pullback in soyoil. Corn chopped sideways aga...
Coming Deadlines: Rail Strike, Federal Budget, and 2023 RVOs
Rail Strike The U.S. House of Representatives is likely to vote tomorrow to block a railroad workers’ strike and/or a railroad lock out of labor. Cur...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.695/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.815/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Coffee Demand Steady
Demand growth for coffee has been far less volatile than production and ending stocks. Ending stocks peaked at 25 percent of consumption in 2001 as the pri...
AMLO Wiggle Room; New Congress/GM Corn Prospects; Pricing Commodities
AMLO Wiggle Room At a meeting yesterday with USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) conceded that h...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Sri Lanka will benefit from a program by Thailand and the United Nations...
Market Commentary: Argentina Creates New “Soy Dollar”; CBOT Soy Complex Rallies; Hog Selloff Intensifies
The CBOT started the day on a weak note with the protests in China and the government’s resulting crackdown creating widespread pressure on financial...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.6875/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.8075/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close.&...
Wheat Condition Not Determinative
USDA delayed its last of the year Crop Progress report until tomorrow due to undefined “system outages.” Private analysts told Reuters that the...
Labor Crisis; China is EV Problem
Labor Crisis The U.S. unemployment rate is at 3.7 percent and due to low birth rates, an aging population, the great resignation, and demand for work-life...
Japan Approves New Safeguard Triggers on U.S. Beef
Last week the Upper House of Japan’s Diet approved a new beef safeguard protocol which amends the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA). That is the fin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Brazil Finally, the first vessel loaded with Brazil corn and destined for China will leave the port of Santos this week. The vessel Mv Star Iris is se...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Bolsters Corn Futures; Wheat Selloff Accelerates
Corn was the upside leader for the CBOT in a generally quiet day of post-Thanksgiving trading. The Export Sales report offered support for corn but did lit...
Transatlantic Crisis
The daily messaging from Europe is that it is in crisis, and not only does Washington not care, but it is also making things worse. Truthfully, the complai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.68/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.97/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – Brief Break in the Action
The Market It was a holiday shortened week and volume was down as it included a shortened trading session today as well. Speculators are no doubt disappoin...
American Petroleum Institute Backs Year-Round E15
The American Petroleum Institute (AP), the association of oil drilling, refining, and natural gas producing companies, joined this week in signing a letter...
Happy Thanksgiving
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 24 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms in Pre-Holiday Trade; AMLO Softens Stance on GMOs
The CBOT was mostly higher in quiet, pre-holiday trade and the theme of the day was position liquidation and risk-off heading into what is practically a fo...
Waste to Energy
It is said that the trade in agricultural products is the movement of water and energy. Plants are grown where there is water, and ultimately, they are com...
Trade and Food Security
An anomaly since COVID disrupted supply chains is that the price of rice has been more stable than other food staples such as corn and wheat. One ar...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.6325/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $8.135/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Reproductive Sow Data Shows Extent of Industry Consolidation The recent corporate filings and announcements from China’s leading domestic h...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 November 2022 Russia continues to harvest a record crop - over 150 MMT currently. Even more interesting are current Russian st...
Market Commentary: Wheat Spreads Show Diverging Trends; Cold Storage Bullish Livestock Futures
The CBOT was mostly lower in quiet, pre-holiday trade with traders liquidating positions ahead of the coming Thanksgiving vacation day. Corn, wheat, and so...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.5675/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.915/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close...
Wheat Concerns in Asia
Asia has been adopting wheat as a food staple over many decades but the war In Ukraine has some worried about its supply reliability. Over the past dozen y...
There’s No Substitute for Natural Gas
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly natural gas storage report, working natural gas in storage was 3,644 billion cubic fee...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s COP27 conference has set a new “123 Pledge” pro...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Cattle Rally on Bullish Data; Grains Sink Lower in Bear Spreading
Corn and wheat futures were on the defensive again to start the week amid fund selling and liquidation trade. Despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, funds are...
Senate Ag Committee Kicks Off with Rural Development and FTX Hearings
The Senate Agriculture Committee has scheduled hearings on the Rural Development and Energy titles of the farm bill as well as the Digital Commodities Cons...
African Alphabet; Green Subsidies War; Lanes of Jurisdiction
African Alphabet Rep. Don Beyer (D-Virginia) is asking the Biden Administration to reconsider Ethiopia’s suspension from AGOA trade benefits, arguing...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.595/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.9925/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&n...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There were no major developments in the wheat markets last week. Production estimates remain unchanged from what WPI has reported over the past month...
Beer Crisis
Canada and the U.S. typically produce about one-fifth of the global supply of malting barley, with Canada accounting for over 60 percent of the total. Last...
Market Commentary: Funky Day
There was lower volume across the board today with some contracts stuck in narrow trading ranges. Corn, soybeans, and HRW appeared to porpoise, seemingly u...
October Cattle on Feed: Placements Way Down
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 11.7 million, or 98 percent of November 2021. ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.6775/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.0325/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&n...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on November 1, 2022 - 2 percent below November 1, 2021. Plac...
Oilseed Highlights – Rethinking the Market
The Market The market got a bump up on Tuesday when it first appeared the Russians had fired at NATO member Poland. Then dropped on news that Russia was no...
Poor Farm Bill Timing; Losing Confidence; Authoritarian Mexico
Poor Farm Bill Timing Activists are writing up their list of wants in the 2023 farm bill and it contains the usual demands to shift support to small farms,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.675/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.0675/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Export Sales and the Changing influence of the U.S. Dollar.
Futures contracts for corn, wheat, and the soy complex all appear poised to trade lower into the middle of December. Livestock futures could have a momenta...
Loss/Damage Splits Developing; G20 Equitable and Inclusive; Fast Tractor
Loss/Damage Splits Developing EU Executive Vice President for the Green Deal Frans Timmermans announced at the COP27 meeting that Europe could support cont...
Livestock Roundup: Decade Low Placements Forecast
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 November at 98 pe...
Export Sales
Export Sales for Nov 4-10, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 290,300 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for Mexico (68,400 MT, including decreases...
Market Commentary: Erase Part of Yesterday
As forewarned in yesterday’s commentary, “if there is an extension of the corridor agreement, expect U.S. wheat to tumble hard and fast.”...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Domestic Live Hog Production Continues Upward Trend in October According to the most recent corporate filings and reports, China’s domestic...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.6525/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.175/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.&...
Pick Your Poison; Unusual Strategic Reserves
Pick Your Poison The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission called on Congress to reconsider whether China should be receiving permanent normal t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 November 2022 Planting Update Russia’s winter crop is planted, however, due to adverse weather conditions farmers failed...
Market Commentary: The Wins of War
Negotiations are ongoing between the UN, Turkey, and Russia for extending the Black Sea grain corridor agreement beyond its scheduled expiration this comin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.6675/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.2825/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
2023 Biofuel RVOs Delayed from Tomorrow Release
The EPA’s proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for 2023 will not be released tomorrow as was previously expected under the terms of a consent d...
Notable WTO; Trade Prejudice; Grain Corridor and Congress
Notable WTO Unsurprising at this week’s informal WTO discussions on reform was the continued embrace by developing countries of the tried and failed...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA Region grain importers from the Black Sea are watching with interest...
Market Commentary: Risk Off but Not Done
Corn and the soy complex shed value today, but wheat was bolstered mostly by poor crop prospects. Perhaps indicative was the CFTC’s Commitment of Tra...
Housekeeping in the House of Representatives and Ag Committee
It’s Monday, one week after last Tuesday’s mid-Presidential term Congressional election. The Democrats have maintained their majority in the Se...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.5725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.185/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&n...
Glyphosate/NBT’s; Scale and Climate; Agro-Terrorism; Mexican Greens; Persian Food
Glyphosate Informs NBT’s Member states are set to vote tomorrow (15 November) on the Commission’s request to extend the current approval period...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The grain exchanges issued new estimates for new crop wheat production with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange more optimistic at 12.4 MMT, and the Rosa...
Market Commentary – Turnaround Friday
After a mostly dreary week, grains and soybeans managed a modest turnaround today. Not a complete turnaround as there were still net losses for the week bu...
What a Week it Was
Here’s a short wrap up perspective after a week with lots of drama. In sum, the final results of Tuesday’s election are not in yet and the part...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.58/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.1375/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. ...
Oilseed Highlights – Still Rising
The Market Soymeal continues to be the drag on the market but even soyoil did not help much this week. Soybean prices were down about 12 cents for t...
Market Commentary: CBOT Lower on Fund Selling; Macro Markets Sharply Higher on CPI Data
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday as fund selling and position liquidation accelerated. The November WASDE did not create much of an additional bullis...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.5325/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.035/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.&n...
AMLO Spits on U.S. Corn; Sovereign Right to EV’s; Green Fertilizer Dreams
AMLO Spits on U.S. Corn If there were any doubts in the U.S. government about Mexico’s intent about GMO corn, President Andrés Manuel Ló...
Export Sales
Export Sales for Oct 28 to Nov 3, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 322,500 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 primarily for unknown destinations (77,500 MT), South Kor...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks by 20 million bushels to 220 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14...
WASDE Corn
USDA forecast U.S. corn production at 13.930 billion bushels, up 35 million from last month on a 0.4-bushel increase in yield to 172.3 bushels per acre.&nb...
WASDE Wheat
USDA left U.S. wheat exports unchanged at 775 million bushels - with offsetting changes for White wheat and Durum. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks ar...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Few Surprises; Wheat Lower as Fund Sells; Cattle Rally Stalled
The November WASDE was largely in-line with expectations and USDA indeed raised the 2022 U.S. corn and soybean yields. Despite the larger crops, carry-out...
Questions for Ms. Tai; Crimes at COP 27
Questions for Ms. Tai It is not clear yet whether the Republicans will win the U.S. House but if they do, there is likely to be greater inspection of the B...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Inflation Continues to Bite, Up 7 Percent in October The average cost of food in October was up year-on-year for the seventh consecutiv...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.645/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.065/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 October - 4 November 2022 Russia’s grain harvest continues and has set a record of 150 MMT. Russia’s wheat belt, Kras...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Sharply Lower in Pre-WASDE Trade; Soy Complex Weaker on Profit Taking
It’s Election Day in the U.S. and the day before the November WASDE. Markets tend to trade small ranges before the elections and the USDA’s rep...
Early Release Version of USDA 2023-2032 Baseline Outlook
USDA publishes its long term 10-year outlook every year in February at the annual Ag Outlook Conference – the last was February 2022. The outlook is...
Complex Transatlantic Balance; Green Truth; Underworld Farming
Complex Transatlantic Balance European leaders are warning that Washington doesn’t seem to understand the seriousness of their complaint against the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.675/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.2775/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close.&n...
Blame the Rice Boogey Man
Rice is the top staple food crop in Asia and the third largest global crop after corn and sugarcane. When rice production is in trouble, people pay attenti...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran said it is willing to make land available in Bandar Abbas port for a...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Falls on Profit Taking; CBOT Looks Ahead to WADSE
The CBOT was mixed just two days out from the November WASDE with soyoil and soybeans posting a corrective day lower in profit taking, while corn and wheat...
Beef and Pork Exports
The September export data for red meat is in. Pork grew for the second month, and beef cooled off from a so-far record year. September was the first month...
Complexity is Strength; Dispute Consultations Needed; Loss and Damage
Complexity as Strength Activists are hoping to influence the drafting of the 2023 farm bill but there are two factors working against wholesale changes to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.7575/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.4575/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&...
Tight Dairy Supplies
After going to four different grocery stores this past weekend looking for heavy cream and nearly coming up empty handed, it is confirmed that U.S. dairy s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Finally, the government announced that export declarations made by exporters for shipments from December to February may be extended for 12 months wi...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies with Energy Markets; Corn, Wheat Firm in Late-Week Trade
The CBOT ended the week with gains across the board as stronger energy and palm oil markets supported sharp rallies in soyoil and soybeans. The soy complex...
Mexico Hardens Positions; Good Luck
Mexico Hardens Positions USTR Katherine Tai met with her Mexican counterpart this week, Economy Minister Raquel Buenrostro, and the message was clear, Mexi...