Siloed Everywhere International trade has become moral, geopolitical, and nationalistic, and so has local commerce. Global trade is now based on perc...
Articles
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt announced that Suez Canal fees for bulk vessels will be increased b...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls on Ukraine Exports; Soybeans Strengthen on Chinese Buying
The CBOT started this week with an apparent reversal of last week’s trends. Wheat futures were on the defensive, thanks to more shipments from Ukrain...
Federal Budget Clock Ticking
Both houses of Congress were back in session last week; the House is scheduled to be in until 30 September and the Senate until 26 September. Congress will...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.7825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.305/bushel, down $0.2925 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The outlook for wheat continues to get more complicated with rains failing to arrive and temperatures beginning to rise, thus increasing the crop's w...
Policy Conflicts and Solutions; India Highlighted
Policy Conflicts and Solutions Policymakers are realizing that the three big issues of climate change, sustainability and food security are conflicting. Th...
Food Inflation Extremes
The World Bank’s food security update notes that the agricultural price index rose one percent from August to September. Food inflation is high in lo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.7725/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.5975/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close.&...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Plains, Argentine Dryness; Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower on Slow Exports
Friday’s trade was largely all about macroeconomic markets with traders showing little interest in adding risk to portfolios as the U.S. stock market...
Fewer Milk Cows, Higher Feed Price, and Spotty Supply Boosting Butter
USDA’s dairy product price outlook was increased due to a decreasing cow herd. The forecast for the average number of milk cows in 2022 has been lowe...
Undermining Justice; Slothful Process; Oilseed Apartheid
Undermining Justice The U.S. Justice Department announced it was dismissing two more price fixing cases against poultry companies. This follows two other c...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Central Government Takes More Steps to Rein in Pork Prices Following the auction of frozen reserved pork last week, China’s National Develo...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseeds Highlights: Spike Followed by Slow Slide
WASDE Shocker This week started with a bang and ended on a whimper. November soybeans rallied 76 cents/bushel after USDA’s September WASDE report on...
Market Commentary: Limited Influences
It was quiet in the overnight trade as everyone awaited the first USDA Export Sales report of the month, and when that was issued it was still quiet as the...
WOTUS Volatility; G7 Dreams
WOTUS Volatility The White House is reviewing EPA’s latest attempt to definitively define the waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) for regulatory purposes unde...
Livestock Roundup: Rail Strike Diverted, Beef Prices about to Turnaround
The rail strike appears to have been diverted. That is a relief to ag markets, and to the livestock, poultry and dairy sector – especially those segm...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.775/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.45/bushel, down $0.2725 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Wheat Grinds Higher on Uncertain Ukraine Export Outlook; Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower
The CBOT was mixed at mid-week amid a general lack of fresh news. Corn and soybeans both drifted lower in quiet trade and extended Tuesday’s pullback...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.8225/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.7225/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&n...
Trade Policy Shorts
IPEF Impact: Thirteen countries followed the U.S. lead in launching the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework negotiations. However, the biggest market potential...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 September 2022 As of 7 September, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported the harvesting of grains and legumes produced 125...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed After Dollar Rallies on Inflation Data
With the September WASDE now past, the CBOT largely entered consolidation mode on Tuesday with a renewed focus on weather as yields are finalized, export d...
CPI Report Higher than Expected; Everything Up but Gas, Beef, and Pork
Inflation rose at 0.1 percent in August, against the market’s expectation of a 0.1 percent drop. For the year, inflation is up 8.3 percent since Augu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.9275/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.605/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.&n...
Backing Strikers
The Biden Administration is reportedly making contingency plans in case rail workers go on strike. Some point out that the President has the power to force...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran’s government increased the purchase price of local wheat, to t...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for the domestic soybean crop in 2022/23 is reduced in the September WASDE. Harvested area is down 0.6 million from the August forecas...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for the domestic corn crop in 2022/23 is reduced in the September WASDE. U.S. corn production for 2022/23 was adjusted to 13.9 billion...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for the domestic wheat crop in 2022/23 in unchanged in the September WASDE. The projected 2022/23 seasonal average farm price is lower...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rally as WASDE Surprises with Lower Yields and Carry-Out
The September WASDE is typically one of the most volatile reports of the year with USDA’s “objective yield” assessments of corn and soybe...
WASDE Forecast Extends Bullish Outlook for Cattle
Today’s Word Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report marginally increased its forecast by 0.2 percent for total red meat and poultry p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.96/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.5875/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. ...
Local Sham Reprise; Generating Regenerative; Flogging Large Farms; Derriere Biting Policy
Local Sham Reprise USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, proving you can’t teach an old dog new tricks, is back with a reprise of the Eat Local mantra he cheer...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat markets – and much of the world – remains focused on the weather issues plaguing the new crop, which will be harv...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.85/bushel, up $0.165 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.695/bushel, up $0.405 from yesterday's close. N...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Russia/Turkey Export Discussion, Falling USD; Bullish WASDE Looms
The CBOT turned higher on the final full day of trading before the September WASDE is released at Noon ET on Monday. Wheat futures led the way as the marke...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseeds Highlights: Big Day on Monday
Market Value A late week rally that pulled soybeans back above the 50-day moving average of $14/bushel was not enough to prevent an overall down week for c...
California Prop 12 Final Regs to go Before SCOTUS
The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) has finalized the implementing rules for Proposition 12 regarding animal confinement regulation. T...
Ongoing Sideways
Putin’s threats to Ukraine’s exports dominated yesterday’s trading, together with concerns about macroeconomic contraction, but both issu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.685/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.29/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Manufactured Crisis
Politicians blamed Covid and now Putin for the crisis in food and energy, but they have been just as complicit in the ongoing shortfalls. All industries, i...
Livestock Roundup: HPAI Watch
With fall and colder weather coming, so does the threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) re-emerging as wild fowl start to migrate again. As we...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Russian Export Comments; Corn, Soybeans Reject Early Rally
The CBOT mostly drifted lower in lackluster trade overnight until Russia’s President Putin made comments that hinted the country has few intentions o...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock NRDC Sets Meeting With Hog Industry to Discuss Market Stability China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will hold a priva...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.71/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.4425/bushel, up $0.2725 from yesterday's close. ...
Best Trade Bargain
Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal says that India would be “happy and willing” to negotiate a trade agreement with the U.S. Am...
Russia Ignores Fungability
Russia is complaining that Ukraine’s grain exports are not going to poor countries, undermining the intent of the grain corridor agreement. There is...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: August–2 September 2022 Grain markets were volatile. While global markets remain bullish, Russian traders are still speculatin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.76/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.17/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. No...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Dry Weather; Argentine “Soy Dollar” Pressures Soy Complex
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with a weekend of dry weather offering support to the corn market and sparking a 10-cent rally in that commodity. Conv...
Political Fallout; Unions and Productivity
Political Fallout USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said yesterday, “Candidly, our view — and I’ve expressed this to EU officials — our vi...
Alfalfa's Disappointment
In 2012, global trade in alfalfa hit 1.7 MMT and there was great optimism that it would continue to grow as a valuable forage crop. In fact, it hit the mil...
Reading the Economic Tea Leaves
There has been some underlying positive economic news starting to emerge from the August data, though given the unprecedented nature of the economic disrup...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Sri Lanka’s Minister of Trade says there is no reason for wheat flo...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 5 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. As a result, we will not upda...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Light Volume Before Long Weekend; Cattle Rally on Post-Holiday Demand Outlook
The CBOT bounced higher heading into the long, holiday weekend, but trading volume was anemic as many traders apparently decided to head home for a four-da...
Oilseeds Highlights: Becoming More Competitive
Futures Market While today’s trading session was a bit of a recovery it still left the week with overall declines for soybeans and soy products. A lo...
Farm Bill: 2023 or 2024?
Congress will return to session after the August recess in the coming weeks, the Senate next week and the House the following week. They will be in session...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.6575/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.11/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Bearish Pressures
The markets opened lower and then turned deeper red as the session wore on. Much of the pressure was from outside markets, plus caution ahead of the three-...
Livestock Round Up: New Beef Packing Capacity Announced
So far this month, two notable announcements were made about new beef packing capacity. These come after much of 2020 saw criticism about the nature of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.58/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.9425/bushel, down $0.3725 from yesterday's close.&n...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Drift Lower on Economic Worries while Wheat Makes Seasonal Gains
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures continuing their slow rally while soybeans and soymeal continue to fall, despite fresh soybean export sa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.705/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.315/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&nb...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Remain Firm as Fall Holidays Near China’s domestic hog prices continued to rally here in the second half of August. The nat...
Treasure Your Agribusiness
In their report, “China's Import Potential for Beef, Corn, Pork, and Wheat,” Economic Research Service analysts correctly note that the Middle...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 August 2022 Russia’s harvest continues with grain production, as of 25 August, at 78.9 MMT which is up 24.8 percent from...
Eggs and Corn
Poultry and poultry products are among the most efficient converters of grain into animal protein products. The feed conversion ratio (FCR) for eggs at 2/1...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat End Lower in Turnaround Tuesday; Livestock Futures Rally on Technical Buying
After starting the week on a high note, the CBOT posted a “turnaround Tuesday” with corn and wheat giving back much of Monday’s gains. Th...
Broiler Meat Trying to Find a Balance
Broiler production struggled for much of the year to keep up with increased demand, especially the demand created by retail inflation and more substitution...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.7725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.2025/bushel, down $0.225 from yesterday's close...
Separation of Church and State; Scholz Encourages Trump
Separation of Church and State USDA announced a $300 million program to assist farmers in certifying organic. The agency notes that for years, organic has...
Wheat to Remain Tight
The current tight global wheat market is a dynamic that is here to stay. For the most recent five years, global wheat consumption has increased by 7 percen...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh semi-official reports say that a wheat import agreement for 50...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.4275/bushel, up $0.375 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Yield Concerns; Wheat Surges 30 Cents on Ukrainian Offensive
CBOT grain markets were higher to start the week while the soy complex drifted lower amid little fresh news and a lack of international buying interest. Co...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is finally finished and, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, total production reached 52 MMT, down 3 MMT from...
Will California’s Gasoline Motor Ban Eliminate One Third of National Gas and Ethanol Demand?
Last week, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) finalized a rule that will outlaw the sale of gas-fueled cars by 2035. The plan is phased in requiring...
Food for the Illiterate; Contract Sanctity for Energy
Food for the Illiterate Deceptive food marketing is rampant because it is successful. However, the most belittling approach is the little words campaign. F...
Real Climate Impact
Climate change is being blamed for drought limited grain crops this year, but tree nuts are a better example. Weather has caused volatility in grain market...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Week on High Note; ProFarmer Yields Revive Bullish Corn Story
The CBOT rallied to end the week with strong commercial buying early in the day that gave way to some fund buying in expectation of ProFarmer’s yield...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Oilseed Highlights - On a Roll
Crop Progress USDA’s Crop Progress report lowered the share of soybeans in the combined Good/Excellent category by one point to 57 percent, but that...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.6425/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.0525/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close.&nb...
A View of Monetary Policy and the Economy from Jackson Hole
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his address to the Federal Reserve’s annual policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It was short...
Market Commentary: Backtracking
After a run up in recent days over drought in the U.S., bad news from a major crop tour, plus drought in Europe and China, there was profit taking today as...
Livestock Round Up: U.S. and Canada Livestock Inventory
Details of the combined U.S. and Canadian cattle and swine herds were released yesterday. The cattle data is based on the semi-annual inventory as of 1 Jul...
Government Money is Complicated
President Joe Biden is handing out what could be $600 billion in student loan forgiveness just before an election. Critics argue about its fairness, and it...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.5/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.89/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.5725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $8.1325/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Pare Gains While Waiting for Iowa, Illinois Yield Estimates
CBOT corn and wheat gave back most or all of Tuesday’s gains as the latest weather forecasts offer better chances of rain and cooler weather heading...
Drought and Rice
Although several crops are at risk due to the drought in southern China, rice is said to be the most at risk. This is because almost half the country&rsquo...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock New Market Reports Reveal Interesting Trends in the Hog Sector The most recent data release from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (M...
Nutrition Policy Dreams
Next month is the White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition and Health and there are a lot of nutrition problems in America to solve. The country is fat,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Markets: 15-19 August 2022 Russia’s harvest continues. As of 11 August, grain production showed 75.5 MMT harvested, which is up...
Market Commentary: Crop Tour Yields Send Corn Sharply Higher; Soybeans, Wheat Follow
Tuesday’s CBOT trade was all about declining crop conditions and crop tour yield estimates. Both were supportive factors, which sent corn 4+ percent...
China to Keep Buying
Food self-sufficiency is China’s policy goal but Anna Czenthe with the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies points o...
Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Respond to Dropping of CVD/AD Case
As the 2022 harvest approaches, farmers are already making plans for the 2023 crop with an outlook toward more potential volatility, especially on margins...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Libya imports about 90 percent of its grain needs every year with total i...
Ag Ahead of Other Merchandise
The OECD reported that Q2 2022 global merchandise trade “slowed markedly” with exports and imports up 2.1 percent and 2.6 percent, respectiveyl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Higher as Stocks Fall Ahead of Fed Meeting
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with corn and soybeans finding continued support from their pricing strength uncovered at the end of last week. Bu...
Killing the Golden Goose; Pandering False Narratives
Killing the Golden Goose USTR Katherine Tai has been scoring victories against Mexico’s AMLO when it comes to organized labor issues under the USMCA,...
Inflation Reduction Act Agricultural Provisions
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), also officially known as the Budget Reconciliation bill and unofficially as the mini-Build Back Better bill, has been pa...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.29/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.8825/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. ...
Ignoring Half the Market
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack told Iowa corn farmers last week that, “I pointed out to the President (AMLO in Mexico) that he’s also deeply concer...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The old crop wheat market remained quiet last week. On the sell-side, the government’s allowed export quota seems to be practically committed a...
Cattle on Feed
USDA reported U.S. Cattle on Feed was 1 percent above year ago – for a totaled of 11.2 million head on August 1, 2022. Placements in feedlots d...
Market Commentary – Lower for the Week
Modest volumes were traded today, except HRW and Lean Hogs where there was some added play. For the week overall, the bears were in charge with weather and...
Cattle on Feed: July Placements Up, Marketings Down
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the inventory of cattle and calves on feed was 11.2 million, 101 percent above August 2021, and in l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.2325/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.71/bushel, up $0.22 from yesterday's close. N...
Oilseeds Highlights – Larger Supplies
Prices Soybeans and coproducts futures prices closed out this week with lower prices: November Soybeans: -50.25 cents to end at 1404/bushel December Soymea...
Market Commentary: Wheat Down Again; Rest Rangebound
Weather and Ukraine remain bearish factors in agricultural markets. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited Ukraine today and highlighted that 21 shi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1575/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.49/bushel, down $0.315 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Discriminatory Trade to Hit Ag; High Standard Redefined
Discriminatory Trade to Hit Ag The Inflation Reduction Act increases taxes and spending but also invites retaliation against U.S. agricultural exports. Agr...
Export Sales
Export Sales for August 5-11, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 207,200 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023--a marketing-year low--were down 42 percent from the previous...
Livestock Round Up: COF Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 August at 100.8 p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.12/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 22 Wheat closed at $7.805/bushel, down $0.2225 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Market Commentary: Bad Day for Wheat
It was a somewhat volatile open but there was one certainty – wheat was going down. Joined by soyoil. Lower wheat weighed on corn, which hung on for...
Western Currency Dominance
Western sanctions have bolstered interest by China and Russia in creating a third reserve currency to challenge the dollar and the euro. There is discussio...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Rising Feed Costs and Hot Temperatures Force Some to Sell Hogs Here in August average feedstuff prices have continued to climb as a result of hig...
Russian Wheat Price Moves Lower
The consultancy Sovecon this week increased its estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 94.7 MMT. That is 7.6 percent more than USDA's guess at 88 MMT and if...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 August 2022 The harvest in Russia continues. Some areas in the south are entering the final stage and producing a record crop...
Market Commentary: The Good and the Bad
Yesterday’s steep losses in the futures market was followed by a lower close overnight that fed today’s narrative for yet still more declines i...
Pivot to Latin America
Washington made a famous “pivot to Asia” in 2012 under the Obama Administration. The rise of China and a realization that 60 percent of the wor...
COVID and Inflation Boosting Home Cooking
One of the significant impacts of the COVID pandemic was its effect on the balance of food demand between retail grocery and food service. This was particu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1025/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.86/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Ongoing Shortages
A French fry shortage is now expanding into a tomato shortage. The U.S. production of potatoes had been expanding even as the acres harvested declined due...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Lebanon officially rejected the first shipment of 26,000 MT of corn from...
Market Commentary: Rains, Cool Weather Pressures Corn, Soybeans; China Economic Data Sparks Worries
Despite Friday’s bullish, post-WASDE turnaround, the CBOT posted steep losses on Monday with corn and soybeans leading the way. Ag futures markets we...
Hay Supplies Will Continue to Pressure Cattle
With Friday’s WASDE and crop production reports there was much attention, rightfully so, on corn and soybean yields. However, an important metric pot...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.2825/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&...
Agriculture Key in Presidential Races; Philosophical Fight Over Farm Spending
Agriculture Key in Presidential Races Current Kenyan Trade Minister Betty Maina this week said her country’s goals ‘haven’t changed&rsquo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued at full speed and reached 90 percent of the expected harvested area. Despite rains that fell last week, the w...
Meat Price Machinations
Meat prices have been distorted ever since COVID struck and the contortions continue despite the pandemic now being considered endemic. The pandemic itself...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: USDA forecast U.S. soybean production for 2022/23 at 4.53 billion bushels, up 26 million - higher yields more than offset lower harvested area; H...
WASDE Corn
CORN: USDA forecast U.S. corn production for 2022/23 at 14.4 billion bushels, down 146 million from the July projection. The season’s fir...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in wint...
Market Commentary: WASDE Offers Surprises and Questions Linger Going Forward
The CBOT was strictly focused on the August WASE in Friday’s trade. Price action before the USDA’s noon report featured quiet, weaker spread tr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.06/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
WASDE Forecasts Bullish Cattle and Hog Prices
Today’s Word Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report marginally increased its forecast for total red meat and poultry production comp...
Oilseeds Highlights – Reports, Oh My!
WASDE Surprise Oops, they did it again! The trade thought USDA would cut the soybean yield and instead the August WASDE increased it from July’s 51.5...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.2775/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.1075/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Pre-Report Positioning
In the last full trading day before the August WASDE is released, traders reaffirmed their belief that USDA will be marking yields lower on adverse weather...
WPI and Dow Jones’ Pre-WASDE S&D Estimates
In advance of USDA’s WASDE report that will be issued at Noon on Friday, 22 August, WPI has prepared the following set of tables. First, we detail ou...
Geopolitics and Trade; Labor’s Distortions
Geopolitics and Trade Post WWII trade policy by Washington was largely driven by Cold War tactics. Offer countries easier access to the big American consum...
Livestock Round Up: Energy Inflation Down, Food inflation Up in July
According to yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), overall consumer prices were unchanged in July...
Export Sales
Export Sales for July 29-August 4, 2022. Wheat: Net sales of 359,200 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 44 percent from the previous week, but do...
Market Commentary: Hogs Post New Highs; Soy Complex Remains Volatile; Corn Pares Gains on Bearish WASDE Fears
The CBOT started the day sharply higher with support from outside markets, which rallied in celebration of the July inflation data. U.S. inflation slowed i...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.185/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.9975/bushel, up $0.1825 from yesterday's close. ...
GMO Cross-Contamination; Africa’s Heartbeat – Kenya; Fertilizer Crunch; EFSA Animal Welfare
GMO Cross-Contamination The European Union Court of Justice affirmed Italy’s ban on planting MON810 corn despite its approval at the EU-level. Italy...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Prices See Biggest Surge in Nearly Two Years The lasting impact of the spring coronavirus lockdowns in major coastal cities coupled wit...
Princess Cotton
Global cotton production has declined, led by reductions in its two largest producers, China and India. Cotton is a heat tolerant, modest user of water, wh...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 August 2022 Russia’s harvest campaign continues. As of the first week of August, reports show 56.5 MMT of grains harvested...
Market Commentary: Declining Crop Conditions Spark CBOT Rally; WPI Corn and Soybean S&D Update
Yesterday’s Crop Conditions report featured worse-than-expected declines and sparked an overnight and early morning rally in CBOT futures Tuesday. Co...
U.S. Trade Strategy in Africa; USDA Changes Tune; Pick Your Poison
U.S. Trade Strategy in Africa U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a new Sub Saharan Africa strategy that focused on governance, security, rebo...
Cold, Hungry Winter
Europe is facing an energy crisis this coming winter and the food situation could be bad as well. This summer’s drought, reduced corn and sunflower o...
Proposed 2023 RVOs Coming in November
On 11 July, WPI reported that the 2023 required volume obligations (RVOs) were expected to come in mid-September; that was based on a proposed consent decr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.14/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.815/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION MEA region barley buyers are looking more to French barley as supplies fr...
Market Commentary: Market Trending as Traders Position for WASDE
The CBOT was mixed in quiet trade to start the week with traders looking at the U.S. and EU weather forecasts for supply-side guidance ahead of Friday&rsqu...
Inflation Reduction Act Passes Senate
As WPI covered on 29 July, after many months of negotiating with Senator Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7975/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nb...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers took advantage of good weather conditions and corn with nearly ideal moisture levels and pushed the harvest an additional 7 percent last week...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Ukrainian government announced last week that, after a review of its new grain export corridors, it expects to export 3 MMT of grain mon...
No Rice Shortage
Food scarcity has been a frequent headline this year but with food inflation now dropping along with commodity prices, rice is an example of the scare that...
Market Commentary: Weather Outlook Supports Corn; USDA Confirms China Soy Buying; Cattle and Hogs Rally on Packer Demand
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat remaining under pressure from Ukraine’s slow but growing grain export program and from the large Russia...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Kill a Competitor; North American Lumber
Kill a Competitor Polling shows that former Brazilian President Luix Inácio Lula da Silva will beat the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, in the upcoming 2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.1/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.&nbs...
Breaking Down the Data Behind Today’s Big Jobs Report
On Monday, WPI discussed the state of the economy (What is a Recession and Why Does it Matter if We’re In One?). As we wrote, “The whole situat...
Oilseeds Highlights – Lots to Churn
The soybean market has been jostled this week, always by weather anomalies, second by a crop progress report that showed, well progress, and third, controv...
Export Sales
Export Sales for July 22-28, 2022 Wheat: Net sales of 249,900 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 55...
Market Commentary: Small Rebound
The trading session opened kind of sluggish, not even meeting the overnight closes. There was uncertainty in grains and oilseeds, though not in livestock s...
Taiwan FTA Foolery
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is doubling down on her support of Taiwan and attack on China. She said a free trade agreement (FTA) with Taiwan “mig...
Livestock Round Up: Will There be a Weather Market for Hogs?
Hog slaughter is running about 3.7 percent below last year, but live slaughter weights/carcass weights are up so the drop in pork production is only about...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0625/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: WCB Heat Pushes Corn Higher; Wheat, Soy Complex Lower on Fund Selling
CBOT futures largely continued their existing trends (i.e., lower) on Wednesday, with the exception that corn futures pushed higher and scored 2-cent gains...
Tai Not Lighthizer?; Cart Before the Horse
Tai Not Lighthizer? In one of the odder developments, Congressional Democrats are complaining about a lack of consultation by USTR over trade policy pursui...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China’s Ag Ministry Pushes Hog Industry Toward Moderation The market exuberance regarding the nationwide recovery in hog prices that ran fr...
Food Inflation
U.S. gasoline prices are up 60 percent June to June and deservedly receive more than food price inflation. Year to date, consumer food inflation is at 6.7...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9625/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.6375/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. ...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25 – 29 July 2022 Russia’s harvesting campaign continues. The latest forecast for wheat production in Russia is 90 MMT...
Market Commentary: Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit Unnerves Grain Markets
U.S. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s surprise visit to Taiwan kept the CBOT on the defensive Tuesday amid a lack of other fundamental news. Chin...
Geopolitical Strife; ICE as Farm Bill; No Wharp Speed
Geopolitical Strife U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi surprised some after she went to Taiwan despite China’s warning that it would cause a military co...
Lowest Cost versus Export Share
The lowest cost producer is generally thought to have the advantage on market share, assuming all other resources are available. Indeed, Russian farmers ha...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $5.9425/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $7.7475/bushel, down $0.255 from yesterday's close.&...
USTR Ag Nominee Confirmation Hearing Sparks Enforcement versus Access
After 18 months of an empty desk for the Special Agricultural Trade negotiator at USTR (and one withdrawn nominee), the Senate Finance Committee held a con...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Lebanon is scheduled to receive the first shipment of wheat from Ukraine&...
Market Commentary: Markets Fall on Ukraine Grain Exports; U.S. Crop Conditions Exceed Expectations
The day’s big news – as WPI readers will likely already know – was that a vessel carrying Ukrainian corn left the Black Sea this morning...
What is a Recession and Why Does it Matter if We’re in One?
The news and political talk shows have been abuzz about whether the economy is in a recession, moreover, it has become political, with some Republican poli...
Risky Strategy; Factoid
Risky Strategy Some Congressional and Taiwanese officials are convinced that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan this week. The U.S. Navy has repo...
Minor Player, Minor Impact
World barley carryover stocks are forecast at 16.2 MMT in 2022/23, which would be the lowest since 1983/84 when the global population was 40 percent smalle...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.0975/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Perhaps the most important news on the corn market comes from the discussions between Brazil and China to accelerate the Asian giant’s purchasin...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Perhaps the biggest news in the world – and especially Black Sea – grain markets is Monday’s shipment of 26 KMT of co...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...
Summary of Futures
Dec 22 Corn closed at $6.2/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Sep 22 Wheat closed at $8.0775/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. ...
Market Commentary: Weekly Gains but Rough Day for Wheat
It was a week of big gains for corn and soybeans, and wheat as well, but today put a damper on it. Wheat, like corn and soybeans came out of the chute this...
Anti-Inflation Spending Bill
In a surprise move yesterday, Senator Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) signed off on a budget reconciliation bill with a number of tax provisions and more tha...