Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
Sino-Ag Developments
EconomyLeaders gather this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference with the view of another sub-par year ahead and the need for bold action to turn the economy around. Recent measures have included lowering the cash reserve requirements at banks so that more money is available for...
Sino-Ag Update
EconomyDeflation continues to be a problem with the Producer Price Index declining in November for the 26th month in a row. Consumer inflation was expected to increase 0.5 percent after rising 0.3 percent in October, but instead it rose by just 0.2 percent, a five-month low. Despite economic so...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Sino-Ag Roundup 2
Meat DemandChina is the largest consumer of meat, consuming 27 percent of world supplies and while pork has been the dominate choice, poultry demand has been on the rise along with beef. Poultry is winning due to price and its health halo, and beef is viewed as a premium product. The result is...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Sino-Ag Roundup
Trade WarDonald Trump hasn’t even been sworn into office and is already roiling currency markets. The yuan, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar all slid this week on Trump’s social media claim that he will add tariffs on these three countries unless they stem the flow of drugs and illegal aliens i...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Selloff Sinks Soyoil, Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Lower Ahead of Stocks Report
A surprise selloff in crude oil put heavy selling pressure on the CBOT soy complex on Thursday, with soyoil and soybeans scoring bearish reversals for the day. The weakness in the soy complex sent corn and wheat into the red as well, with traders unwilling to take more long risks heading into t...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Extend Rallies; Wheat, Corn Fall as Short-Covering Fades
The CBOT saw diverging trading patterns on Tuesday with soybeans and soyoil continuing their rallies and extending gains to new highs. China is rumored to be purchasing up to 1.2 MMT (44 Mbu or 20 cargoes) of U.S. soybeans for October-November delivery, which put a bid under the market. Too, th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...
Market Commentary: Wheat Retraces; Soyoil Surges
Wheat was the big gainer last week but this week it gave up most of those gains. And soyoil was last week’s biggest loser but it rose to the top this week. Lean hogs also staged a major reversal after losing 1.32 percent last week and then rising 4.1 percent this week. Where there...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally
Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese export business. That rally fizzled, however, after the USDA did not report any daily “flash” export sales at 9 AM ET and the ma...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises on Plains Dryness; Corn, Soybeans Sink in Pre-WASDE Trade
Trading at the CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with expectations for the WASDE differing significantly. For corn and soybeans, traders and analysts are all in on the bearish side of things while there is some growing positivity for the wheat markets. That was reflected in Tuesday’s trade with s...
Market Commentary: CBOT Prepares for September WASDE
The CBOT started the week with a mood that was decidedly oriented towards preparing for the September WASDE report. Volume and price action were relatively limited for the day and cattle futures were the surprise bullish leaders. In the grains, corn and soybeans pushed higher with the latter ma...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left before the weekend. Too, the September WASDE is looming next week and traders are positioning and adjusting expectations in advance of that re...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply on Bullish Technicals; China-Canada Trade War Looms
The CBOT was nearly uniformly higher following the U.S. Labor Day holiday with wheat, corn, and soybeans all scoring strong gains and meaningful bullish technical developments. There wasn’t a major fundamental catalyst for any of the markets, rather the day’s trade seemed to build u...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Export Sales, Weather; Wheat Follows Through on Reversal
Thursday and Friday are the last two days of the month with a three-day weekend present to kick off September, which helped create a “risk off” short covering tone in the markets. Consequently, the major CBOT ag markets were all higher for the day with additional fundamental develop...
Market Commentary: Wheat Continues Reversal; Corn Soy Fall on U.S. Weather
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures following through on Tuesday’s bullish technical reversal after Stats Canada forecast a 34-MMT all-wheat wheat crop, which was below traders’ expectations. That, combined with weather issues for some major wheat growing/exporting co...
Market Commentary: Little to Move the Market But it Moved Anyways
The only real market mover on this last trading day of the week was the Fed’s nod to rate cuts. It is still bearish in grains, and the soy complex continued its small rebound despite the prospect of record production. No doubt because of continued strong demand. It was the second da...
Cotton Market Basics and 2024/25 Outlook
Following recent client requests, WPI provides the following overview of the cotton market, its basic structure and recent trends, and a short outlook for MY 2024/25. Cotton Production World cotton production is highly concentrated with four countries (China, India, Brazil, and the...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New Contract Lows; Corn, Soybeans Fall on Record Yields
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday with the Canadian rail workers strike and forecasts of record-breaking yields emboldening bears. Wheat futures scored new contract lows amid signs of weaker demand while corn and soybeans saw threats primarily from the ever-expanding production outlook for...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina while steady corn and soybean ratings resulted in muted trade for the latter two commodities. Corn futures drifted lower as specs are neith...
Balancing Offense and Defense; Border Measures; Economic Returns from Sport
Balancing Offense and Defense All growers of all crops are not necessarily competitive even in a large agriculture country. Major U.S. row crop growers have asked USTR to ensure that the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity (APEP) provide greater market access for their products. By con...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
Sino-Ag Developments
EconomyLeaders gather this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference with the view of another sub-par year ahead and the need for bold action to turn the economy around. Recent measures have included lowering the cash reserve requirements at banks so that more money is available for...
Sino-Ag Update
EconomyDeflation continues to be a problem with the Producer Price Index declining in November for the 26th month in a row. Consumer inflation was expected to increase 0.5 percent after rising 0.3 percent in October, but instead it rose by just 0.2 percent, a five-month low. Despite economic so...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Sino-Ag Roundup 2
Meat DemandChina is the largest consumer of meat, consuming 27 percent of world supplies and while pork has been the dominate choice, poultry demand has been on the rise along with beef. Poultry is winning due to price and its health halo, and beef is viewed as a premium product. The result is...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Sino-Ag Roundup
Trade WarDonald Trump hasn’t even been sworn into office and is already roiling currency markets. The yuan, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar all slid this week on Trump’s social media claim that he will add tariffs on these three countries unless they stem the flow of drugs and illegal aliens i...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Selloff Sinks Soyoil, Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Lower Ahead of Stocks Report
A surprise selloff in crude oil put heavy selling pressure on the CBOT soy complex on Thursday, with soyoil and soybeans scoring bearish reversals for the day. The weakness in the soy complex sent corn and wheat into the red as well, with traders unwilling to take more long risks heading into t...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Extend Rallies; Wheat, Corn Fall as Short-Covering Fades
The CBOT saw diverging trading patterns on Tuesday with soybeans and soyoil continuing their rallies and extending gains to new highs. China is rumored to be purchasing up to 1.2 MMT (44 Mbu or 20 cargoes) of U.S. soybeans for October-November delivery, which put a bid under the market. Too, th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...
Market Commentary: Wheat Retraces; Soyoil Surges
Wheat was the big gainer last week but this week it gave up most of those gains. And soyoil was last week’s biggest loser but it rose to the top this week. Lean hogs also staged a major reversal after losing 1.32 percent last week and then rising 4.1 percent this week. Where there...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally
Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese export business. That rally fizzled, however, after the USDA did not report any daily “flash” export sales at 9 AM ET and the ma...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises on Plains Dryness; Corn, Soybeans Sink in Pre-WASDE Trade
Trading at the CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with expectations for the WASDE differing significantly. For corn and soybeans, traders and analysts are all in on the bearish side of things while there is some growing positivity for the wheat markets. That was reflected in Tuesday’s trade with s...
Market Commentary: CBOT Prepares for September WASDE
The CBOT started the week with a mood that was decidedly oriented towards preparing for the September WASDE report. Volume and price action were relatively limited for the day and cattle futures were the surprise bullish leaders. In the grains, corn and soybeans pushed higher with the latter ma...
Market Commentary: CBOT Dips as Short Covering Subsides; Livestock Fall on Macro Worries
The CBOT was mostly lower on Thursday as traders took a day to pause and reassess positions and the grain market outlook with just one day of trade left before the weekend. Too, the September WASDE is looming next week and traders are positioning and adjusting expectations in advance of that re...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Sharply on Bullish Technicals; China-Canada Trade War Looms
The CBOT was nearly uniformly higher following the U.S. Labor Day holiday with wheat, corn, and soybeans all scoring strong gains and meaningful bullish technical developments. There wasn’t a major fundamental catalyst for any of the markets, rather the day’s trade seemed to build u...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Export Sales, Weather; Wheat Follows Through on Reversal
Thursday and Friday are the last two days of the month with a three-day weekend present to kick off September, which helped create a “risk off” short covering tone in the markets. Consequently, the major CBOT ag markets were all higher for the day with additional fundamental develop...
Market Commentary: Wheat Continues Reversal; Corn Soy Fall on U.S. Weather
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures following through on Tuesday’s bullish technical reversal after Stats Canada forecast a 34-MMT all-wheat wheat crop, which was below traders’ expectations. That, combined with weather issues for some major wheat growing/exporting co...
Market Commentary: Little to Move the Market But it Moved Anyways
The only real market mover on this last trading day of the week was the Fed’s nod to rate cuts. It is still bearish in grains, and the soy complex continued its small rebound despite the prospect of record production. No doubt because of continued strong demand. It was the second da...
Cotton Market Basics and 2024/25 Outlook
Following recent client requests, WPI provides the following overview of the cotton market, its basic structure and recent trends, and a short outlook for MY 2024/25. Cotton Production World cotton production is highly concentrated with four countries (China, India, Brazil, and the...
Market Commentary: Wheat Hits New Contract Lows; Corn, Soybeans Fall on Record Yields
The CBOT was sharply lower on Thursday with the Canadian rail workers strike and forecasts of record-breaking yields emboldening bears. Wheat futures scored new contract lows amid signs of weaker demand while corn and soybeans saw threats primarily from the ever-expanding production outlook for...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina while steady corn and soybean ratings resulted in muted trade for the latter two commodities. Corn futures drifted lower as specs are neith...
Balancing Offense and Defense; Border Measures; Economic Returns from Sport
Balancing Offense and Defense All growers of all crops are not necessarily competitive even in a large agriculture country. Major U.S. row crop growers have asked USTR to ensure that the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity (APEP) provide greater market access for their products. By con...