WASDE Soybeans - August 2025
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean production for 2025/26 to 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average farm price for soybean is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean m...
WASDE Corn - August 2025
USDA’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is a record 188.8 bushels per acre, which is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. U.S. exports are increased 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion bushels. Regardless, U.S. ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2...
WASDE Wheat - August 2025
USDA increased their estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. Nevertheless, the 2025/26 season-average far...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in the core region in 40 years. While the improved soil moisture will be beneficial for corn planting that’s set to begin in about a month...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Taxes The topic of export taxes continues to spark debate in Argentina, particularly soybean taxes. The return to a 33 percent rate for soybeans has made planting unviable in large parts of the agricultural area. In corn, the increase of 3 percentage points is less impactful, and t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 July 2025 The export market is drawing all the attention and in the southern (export oriented) regions of Russia, demand and hunger for more business surpass supply, thus bringing prices back to previous levels, sometimes even higher. In some regions where ha...
European Market Analysis
Regional News President Trump announced 30 percent tariffs on imports from the EU effective 1 August even as the EU and U.S. trade negotiations continue. Western Europe saw heavy and mostly beneficial precipitation last week, but a dry trend is now emerging for the region. Last week...
WASDE Soybeans - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for increased ending stocks compared to last month: U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 was raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion on the assumption that demand for soybean oil for biofuel would increase. The U.S. seasonal average farm price of...
WASDE Corn - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. corn is a reduction in ending stocks from the June estimate of 1.75 billion bushels to 1.66 billion bushels. U.S. corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion; If realized, those exports would be record high. The seasonal average farm pr...
WASDE Wheat - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. wheat production to increase 8 million bushels to 1,929 million bushels. However, the estimate for U.S. wheat exports is raised by 25 million b...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Livestock Roundup: China Impact on Red Meat Markets
Pork export sales for the week ending 26 June slowed, following the large volume booked the previous week. However, in the last five weeks pork export sales have averaged over 30,000 MT per week. That is strong for this time of year. Outstanding pork sales at 202,497 MT are running about 10 per...
WASDE Soybeans – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024/25 as higher soybean meal disappearance increases 2 percent due to greater pork and poultry production. I...
WASDE Corn – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies to create higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago due to increases in both area and yield. Planted area is estimated to be 95.3 million acres and yield is projected t...
WASDE Wheat – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected l...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk freight markets saw strength emerge this week with the Capesize sector rallying in early trade, but giving up some of those gains at the week’s end. Panamax and Supramax markets pushed higher initially as well, but now look like they will head sideway...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn; Wheat Selling Continues; Cattle Wobble on ICE Rumors
The overnight CBOT trade showed corn pushing lower while the soy complex traded modestly higher on hopes for positive outcomes from the U.S.-China trade meeting this week. That trend quickly reversed, however, as corn became the upside leader in the day session on technical buying. Corn’s...
Market Commentary: Volatility But Stability
It was a very active open this morning with lots of lead changes as corn and soybean traders wrestled over whether bears or bulls were in control. Even winter wheat, which looked solidly in the green took a brief turn south. Volumes were robust and trade volatile but in the end, only bean oil a...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Rally Struggles
The major development at the CBOT on Monday was that bears finally gained full control of the corn and soybean markets with multiple bearish headlines allowing them to do so. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China and slow political progress on Capitol Hill pressured the soy complex overnigh...
Tariff Threats Escalation Again: China and EU
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce import tariffs by a combined 115 percentage points, down to 10 percent. The agreement was intended to cool years of tariffs and trade conflict that came to a head on 2 April with the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. At the time, both sides indicated...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with only 40 percent of the total area harvested so far. The delay is no longer primarily due to the soybean harvest but is now driven by persistent high grain moisture and excess water in many fields. The m...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the key for markets going forward, but the Middle Kingdom has not seen any surge in bookings yet. The Baltic Dry indices were mixed this w...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE report, news that the U.S. Congress may be planning to extend the 45Z tax credits, and Thursday’s rumors that the EPA may be undercutt...
Wheat Problem Areas
As noted yesterday, global wheat consumption has been growing faster than the expansion in production. Sometimes it takes non-agricultural researchers to look at an issue in a different way. Petroleum engineers at the Colorado School of Mines studied global areas where the loss of sub-surface s...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
Phase II Deal; EU Strategy; Mimicking EU
Phase II Deal U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a phase-one deal may be a model for trade talks with China. It may be the only model that would help U.S. farmers. Brazil still has a price edge on soybeans, and even a 10 percent tariff is enough to price out U.S. commodities...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
WASDE Corn - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies and total use: Higher ending stocks are expected to result from 15.8 billion bushels of corn production, up 6 percent from a year ago. Projected planted area of 95.3 million acres would be the highest in over a decade. The corn y...
WASDE Soybeans - August 2025
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean production for 2025/26 to 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. seasonal average farm price for soybean is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean m...
WASDE Corn - August 2025
USDA’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is a record 188.8 bushels per acre, which is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. U.S. exports are increased 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion bushels. Regardless, U.S. ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2...
WASDE Wheat - August 2025
USDA increased their estimate for U.S. wheat exports by 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. Nevertheless, the 2025/26 season-average far...
Market Commentary: Ephemeral Trump Bump
The U.S. – China tariff war truce technically expires tomorrow and in negotiating its extension, President Trump decided to signal his hope that Beijing would purchase some U.S. soybeans. There is no indication that this will be the end result, but in futures it is buy the rumor. Tomorrow...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Disrupts Argentine Corn Harvest Heavy rains have compounded weeks of high humidity in Buenos Aires province, marking July as the wettest in the core region in 40 years. While the improved soil moisture will be beneficial for corn planting that’s set to begin in about a month...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Export Taxes The topic of export taxes continues to spark debate in Argentina, particularly soybean taxes. The return to a 33 percent rate for soybeans has made planting unviable in large parts of the agricultural area. In corn, the increase of 3 percentage points is less impactful, and t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 July 2025 The export market is drawing all the attention and in the southern (export oriented) regions of Russia, demand and hunger for more business surpass supply, thus bringing prices back to previous levels, sometimes even higher. In some regions where ha...
European Market Analysis
Regional News President Trump announced 30 percent tariffs on imports from the EU effective 1 August even as the EU and U.S. trade negotiations continue. Western Europe saw heavy and mostly beneficial precipitation last week, but a dry trend is now emerging for the region. Last week...
WASDE Soybeans - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for increased ending stocks compared to last month: U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 was raised 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion on the assumption that demand for soybean oil for biofuel would increase. The U.S. seasonal average farm price of...
WASDE Corn - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. corn is a reduction in ending stocks from the June estimate of 1.75 billion bushels to 1.66 billion bushels. U.S. corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion; If realized, those exports would be record high. The seasonal average farm pr...
WASDE Wheat - July 2025
USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. wheat production to increase 8 million bushels to 1,929 million bushels. However, the estimate for U.S. wheat exports is raised by 25 million b...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Livestock Roundup: China Impact on Red Meat Markets
Pork export sales for the week ending 26 June slowed, following the large volume booked the previous week. However, in the last five weeks pork export sales have averaged over 30,000 MT per week. That is strong for this time of year. Outstanding pork sales at 202,497 MT are running about 10 per...
WASDE Soybeans – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024/25 as higher soybean meal disappearance increases 2 percent due to greater pork and poultry production. I...
WASDE Corn – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies to create higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago due to increases in both area and yield. Planted area is estimated to be 95.3 million acres and yield is projected t...
WASDE Wheat – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected l...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk freight markets saw strength emerge this week with the Capesize sector rallying in early trade, but giving up some of those gains at the week’s end. Panamax and Supramax markets pushed higher initially as well, but now look like they will head sideway...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn; Wheat Selling Continues; Cattle Wobble on ICE Rumors
The overnight CBOT trade showed corn pushing lower while the soy complex traded modestly higher on hopes for positive outcomes from the U.S.-China trade meeting this week. That trend quickly reversed, however, as corn became the upside leader in the day session on technical buying. Corn’s...
Market Commentary: Volatility But Stability
It was a very active open this morning with lots of lead changes as corn and soybean traders wrestled over whether bears or bulls were in control. Even winter wheat, which looked solidly in the green took a brief turn south. Volumes were robust and trade volatile but in the end, only bean oil a...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Rally Struggles
The major development at the CBOT on Monday was that bears finally gained full control of the corn and soybean markets with multiple bearish headlines allowing them to do so. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China and slow political progress on Capitol Hill pressured the soy complex overnigh...
Tariff Threats Escalation Again: China and EU
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce import tariffs by a combined 115 percentage points, down to 10 percent. The agreement was intended to cool years of tariffs and trade conflict that came to a head on 2 April with the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. At the time, both sides indicated...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with only 40 percent of the total area harvested so far. The delay is no longer primarily due to the soybean harvest but is now driven by persistent high grain moisture and excess water in many fields. The m...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the key for markets going forward, but the Middle Kingdom has not seen any surge in bookings yet. The Baltic Dry indices were mixed this w...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE report, news that the U.S. Congress may be planning to extend the 45Z tax credits, and Thursday’s rumors that the EPA may be undercutt...
Wheat Problem Areas
As noted yesterday, global wheat consumption has been growing faster than the expansion in production. Sometimes it takes non-agricultural researchers to look at an issue in a different way. Petroleum engineers at the Colorado School of Mines studied global areas where the loss of sub-surface s...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
Phase II Deal; EU Strategy; Mimicking EU
Phase II Deal U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a phase-one deal may be a model for trade talks with China. It may be the only model that would help U.S. farmers. Brazil still has a price edge on soybeans, and even a 10 percent tariff is enough to price out U.S. commodities...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
WASDE Corn - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies and total use: Higher ending stocks are expected to result from 15.8 billion bushels of corn production, up 6 percent from a year ago. Projected planted area of 95.3 million acres would be the highest in over a decade. The corn y...