Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.4325/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4825/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.7/short ton, down $6.1...
Market Commentary: Weaker Spread Trade Hints at Slack Demand, Triggers Fund Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybeans were under heavy selling pressure as weaker (or at least as-expected) export demand runs into an accelerating harvest pace with more grain available in the spot market. Corn and soybean harvest progress remains below average across the U.S., espec...
Newcastle Disease Threatens Brazilian Poultry Exports, but Impact May Be Limited
Key Takeaways: Brazil confirmed a Newcastle disease outbreak at a commercial turkey farm in Santa Catarina on 18 October, raising concerns about potential disruptions to poultry exports despite the outbreak being confined to a single facility thus far. Mexico and Malaysia have imposed nationwi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.5525/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Perceptions of Production Change as Harvest Advances
What You Need to Know Today: Harvest pressure in the U.S. sent corn and soybeans lower as supplies increased and there were signs USDA’s upward revisions to yields in the October WASDE could be close to right. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend, with Ukrai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.6125/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Another Big Soybean Purchase from China This Week
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans continued to accelerate, with USDA reporting another 558 KMT sold to China and 236 KMT to unknown destinations. Combined with sales announced Wednesday and Thursday, the latest purchases bring the three-day total to approximately...
First Look at Realized 2026 Cow-Calf Profits
Key Takeaways: With the fall calf run now upon us, producers are finally getting a glimpse of what their realized profits will be for 2026. Some producers may have already obtained a strong estimate of 2026 revenues, especially if calves were forward sold in, for example, the mid-summer...
The Dynamics of the HPAI Vaccine Plan
As fall begins, wild migratory birds are starting their seasonal migration. That has the industry and government officials worried about the potential spread, again, of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Some members of Congress have called for the United States to be prepared for a pote...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fourth straight week, selling a net 119,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 13.1 percent. Corn accounted for 70 percent of the weekly selling, while funds also...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.78/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.63/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.8/short ton, down $4.7...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Slide Despite Renewed Chinese Buying as Crush Disappoints
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
Livestock Round Up
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
The Tale of Two Dairies under FMMO
Key Takeaways: Texas illustrates the assumptions underlying the 2025 FMMO reform; Idaho exposes their limitations. The Southwest order blend (roughly 27 percent Class I, 32 percent Class III and 31 percent Class IV) exposes Texas producers to every lever USDA adjusted, with a near-neutral proj...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7325/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $364.5/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Market Commentary: A Strong Dollar & A Short Fuse
Inflation is back in the driver’s seat, and agriculture is getting pulled in two directions. A stronger dollar is pressuring grains despite fresh Chinese buying, while renewed Middle East attacks lift crude oil. Higher energy prices can support commodities, but they also raise expenses an...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Ideas Abound
What You Need to Know Today: China’s state-run COFCO, in statements on Tuesday, implied that U.S. corn exports were currently uneconomical but hinted that the Middle Kingdom would import 3.5 MMT of the feed grain this year, with 1 MMT likely sourced from the U.S. Another drone attack has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.6925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $363.2/short ton, down $5...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins declined to $190/head last week, down $32 from the prior week as the Choice cutout weakened while fed cattle prices remained steady. The cutout fell $2.56/cwt to $373/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $220/cwt, narrowing packer spreads after several weeks of improvement...
Market Commentary: CBOT Break Produces Flurry of Tenders; Markets Consolidate Amid Trader Debate
What You Need to Know Today: USDA reports are delayed until Tuesday due to the federal holiday on Monday. Over the weekend, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Russia warmly welcomed and confirmed this ceasefire by conducting more strikes against Ukraine. Specific...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8775/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.7/short ton, up $3.1 f...
State of USMCA Talks: Progress with Mexico, Canada Stalled
On Saturday, 10 October, at a campaign rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, President Trump said that the U.S. and Mexico would come to terms on a new trade deal, and he said Canada does not need to be part of the deal. Trump called the coming agreement with Mexico “great” but gave no d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7975/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.71/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.92/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $8 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Yield Above Expectations Shakes Outlook, Trump Announces Russian Diesel Deal
What You Need to Know Today: Markets got a surprise with a corn yield of 181.2 bushels/acre in the October WASDE, above the average estimate of 177.6 bushels/acre and up from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bushels/acre. Although stronger demand is expected to absorb some of the addit...
WASDE Livestock and Meat Price Forecasts
The USDA has lowered its 2026 red meat production forecasts slightly while forecasting a slight increase in broiler production. Beef is now projected at 24.802 billion pounds, 75 million pounds less than in September. Cow slaughter is expected to be up; however, this will be offset by lower ste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the third straight week, selling a net 43,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 911,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, all three legs of the soy crush...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.6/short ton, down $8...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Ahead of WASDE; Pork Cutout Hits Multi-Year Low
What You Need to Know Today: Attention is turning toward Friday's USDA WASDE report, with traders looking for updated corn and soybean production estimates and revisions to domestic and global supply-and-demand balances. The report could help establish a clearer direction for grain price...
Beef and Cattle Prices: Expect Another Bullish Year in 2027
Key Takeaways: U.S. beef production is forecast to fall 10.5 percent in 2026 and remain unchanged in 2027, despite a mild recovery in fed cattle slaughter. Record beef imports will help offset shrinking domestic production, with imports forecast to increase 14.0 percent in 2026 and anoth...
Livestock Round Up: Beef Lean Trim Imports Fail to Bring Consumer Relief
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e. lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the ma...
Tariffs and the American Sheep, Goat, and Wool Industries
Key Takeaways: Lamb and goat tariffs protect market share, not prices. The flock is too small to respond quickly, and the burden depends on origin: 12.5 percent on Australia and New Zealand, reportedly 37.5 percent plus the base rate on China. Wool is most exposed via the export side. The U.S...
Market Commentary: Yesterday’s Momentum, Today’s Test
Yesterday’s momentum is facing a tougher test today. Stocks and most grain markets have pulled back, while higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar are making buyers work harder to defend the gains. Crude oil has turned lower, easing some immediate energy pressure, but the Fed minutes l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.865/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.8/short ton, up $11 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Crop Ratings Fall and Wheat Planting Stalls
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. corn condition ratings took a surprise turn for the worse in Monday’s report, with 54 percent rated good/excellent (down 3 percent). Dry weather in the U.S. Wheat Belt is stalling planting and causing concerns for the 2027 crop, in turn boosting futures...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.03/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, up $7.7 from ye...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $222/head last week, up $26 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices slipped lower. The cutout rose to $376/cwt while fed cattle fell to $220/cwt, strengthening packer returns. Margins remain exceptionally strong compared with...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9725/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8075/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.1/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Global Grain Demand Grows; Brazil Election, Currency Swing Boosts Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: The Brazilian real surged to start the week after a surprise election result in which right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round of the election. The swing in the U.S. dollar/Brazilian real (USD/BRL) exchange rate caused soybeans to jump sharply higher in earl...
Hog Industry Margins
Pork packer margins closed out September as positive, marking an improvement in a challenging 2026. According to Sterling Marketing, for the week ending 26 September, pork packer margins were $6.98 per head, which is up from a loss of $0.13 the previous week, more than double the margin of $3.9...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9775/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Weighs on Grains, Diesel Could See Much-Needed Relief
What You Need to Know Today: The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel reserves over four months, with a substantial diesel release front-loaded into the first 20 days. The announcement initially pushed crude oil lower on Friday, although it later recovered a portion o...
R-CALF Proposes Changes to Cattle Contracts
In a recent social media post, R-CALF unveiled its latest cattle market plan: “contracts that bind producers before establishing a base price, then tie that price to future negotiated cash transactions, should be prohibited.” That proposal aligns with recent legislation by Represent...
The Future of Cattle Pricing
Key Takeaways: The recent pearl-clutching from parts of the beef industry regarding the loss of the daily Kansas fed cattle negotiated trade pricing report is overwrought and ignores the fact that the direction was readily apparent. The shift away from negotiated trade has been well docu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 63,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 954,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soymeal reached a new r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0225/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.84/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $353.3/short ton, down $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Drier Weather Could Accelerate Soybean Harvest
What You Need to Know Today: A drier early-October forecast should help harvest accelerate across areas of the western Corn Belt that have been running behind, adding pressure to soybeans and soymeal today as concerns over near-term physical tightness begin to ease. Markets are still digesting...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 1 September last week. The total inventory of hogs and pigs in the U.S. was 74.3 million head, reflecting a 1 percent decrease from the previous year but a 1.6 percent increase from June 2026, when the June inventory was at its lowest since 2...
Where the Milk Goes Determines the Value
August 2026 milk production, the four-class pricing system, and the 2025 Federal Milk Marketing Order reforms Key Takeaways: U.S. milk production is growing because the herd is larger, not because cows are producing more milk. August output increased 1.7 percent, even as production per cow dec...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0075/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7575/bushel, down $0.17 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.93/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Quarter & Month End Reality Checks
Markets are getting a quarter-end reality check as September comes to a close. Growth, inflation and interest rates remain central to the macro outlook, while tight diesel supplies keep pressure on the cost of moving goods. States are stepping in with relief, but policy changes alone cannot reb...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9275/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.9775/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359/short ton, down $0.4 from y...
Market Commentary: Wet Midwest Weather, Grain Stocks Positioning Support CBOT
What You Need to Know Today: CBOT markets pared Monday’s sharp losses as traders booked short profits and adjusted positions ahead of the Grain Stocks report that USDA will release Wednesday afternoon. The 7-day QPF forecast from NOAA now shows heavy rain across the central and western C...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $196/head last week, up $20 from the prior week as fed cattle prices declined faster than the Choice cutout. The cutout eased to $375/cwt while fed cattle fell to $221/cwt, modestly widening packer spreads. Margins remain well above year-ago levels as lower cattl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.23/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8825/bushel, down $0.3075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.4/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Everything but Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Last week’s Trump-Xi meetings included China agreeing to roll back $60 billion in tariffs on a huge swath of U.S. ag products, just notably not soybeans. The exclusion of soybeans from the tariff-reduction list means China’s state-run importers COFCO an...
U.S.-China Deal Delivers Tariff Relief, but Little for Soybeans
Key Takeaways: The U.S.-China agreement lowers tariffs on several U.S. agricultural products, but the lack of additional soybean commitments or greater certainty surrounding China’s existing 25 MMT purchase pledge made the deal a slight disappointment. Lower tariffs on U.S. corn are unli...
Market Commentary: U.S.-China Talks Leave Markets Waiting for More
What You Need to Know Today: Headlines emerging from negotiations between President Trump and President Xi were relatively limited, with a more substantive announcement expected Monday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that additional details related to agricultural trade cou...
Cow-Calf Market Outlook
The heat of summer is now transitioning into more moderate temperatures, and the next two months have the busiest marketing periods of the year for replacement cattle. Weather always influences the replacement cattle market, and the primary grain belt in the Southern Plains, where many cattle a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.19/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371/short ton, down $1.4 fr...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
August 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks totaled 2.01 billion pounds, down 0.5 percent from July versus the typical 0.3 percent monthly decline, but 0.9 percent above August 2025 levels. Total red meat stocks rose 0.8 percent for the month despite typically declining 0.1 percent and were 8...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 3,200 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 1.017 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soybeans and soyme...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.07/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $372.4/short ton, up $1.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Markets Await Xi-Trump Meeting Outcome, Export Sales Disappoint
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived at the White House today as part of a highly anticipated three-day visit to the United States, marking his first visit to Washington in eleven years. Trade is expected to feature prominently in discussions with President Trump,...
Livestock Round Up: Quick Hits – Elections, Beef Imports, Xi Meeting and ICE
Officials from the Trump Administration are reportedly considering rolling back the Administration’s beef import plan as there is a growing panic about the midterm elections. The proposal to reduce the 300,000 MT of beef imports – 100,000 MT for September – is being discussed...
The Farm at the Edge of the World: American Agriculture and a Global Reckoning
Key Takeaways: The United States shifted from a decades-long agricultural trade surplus to a growing deficit, reaching roughly forty-one to forty-four billion dollars in recent fiscal years, a structural change rather than a cyclical dip. Brazil has overtaken the United States as the leading s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.085/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.18/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $370.6/short ton, down $0.1...
Market Commentary: The Devil Is in the Details
Markets have no shortage of headlines today, but the reaction depends on what sits underneath them. Strong economic growth comes with renewed inflation pressure. Higher crude inventories do little to solve tight diesel supplies. Rain is delaying one crop while helping another, and trade expecta...
DDGS Price Outlook Turns Bullish
Key Takeaways: DDGS prices have been pushing higher this summer as corn, soybean meal, and other feedstuff values have surged amid strong export demand and supply concerns. WPI’s models anticipate additional gains for DDGS values heading into early 2027, with FOB plant prices reach...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.1725/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.255/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $370.7/short ton, up $2...
Market Commentary: Politics Drives Turnaround Tuesday
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures crashed on social media rumors that ICE raided one or possibly three fed cattle packing plants in Kansas Monday night or Tuesday morning. Operations at one plant have been disrupted and production curtailed. Outcomes for shipping via the Strait of Ho...
Soymeal Holds Its Value in an Oil-Driven Crush Market
Key Takeaways: The expansion of biofuel-driven soybean crushing was expected to increase soymeal supplies and pressure prices as soyoil became a larger driver of crush economics, but soymeal has instead retained considerable value. Strong domestic and global feed demand has helped absorb addit...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $176/head last week, up $19 from the prior week as the Choice cutout edged higher while fed cattle prices eased. The cutout rose to $376/cwt while fed cattle slipped to $222/cwt, modestly widening packer profits. Margins remain well above year-ago levels despite...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2675/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.28/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.4/short ton, up $9.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Bullish Technical Day ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting
What You Need to Know Today: Grain markets were sharply higher overnight and through the day session as the concerning wet weather pattern persists over the Midwest. Grain traders – and soybean market players in particular – will be closely parsing both what is said and unsaid from...
Senate Moves Farm Bill, but That May Be Not Enough
Last week, the Senate Ag Committee passed the farm bill on a party-line vote upon the return of Senators Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama), who missed the vote on 6 August (see WPI coverage here) when it failed by a similar party-line vote, 10-11. Democrats held the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets in the latest CFTC report, with funds selling a net 3,000 contracts through last Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing their combined net-long position to 1.021 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, pos...
Cattle on Feed - Sep 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed totaled 11.2 million head on September 1, 2026 – which was 1 percent above September 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.62 million head - 9 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.52 million head - 3 percent below...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.1425/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.035/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $358.6/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Pulls Back, Bullish Cattle on Feed
What You Need to Know Today: The September Cattle on Feed report was strongly bullish, with both the 1 September on-feed inventory and August placements coming in well below average expectations and below the bottom of their respective pre-report estimate ranges. China continues to buy U...
Cattle on Feed Report: Lowest August Placements and Marketings on Record
USDA’s September cattle on feed report was released Friday, with the total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounting to 11.2 million head, 101 percent of last year. Placements dropped in August to their lowest total for the month since records began in 1996...
U.S. Goat Meat Market: Import Growth Outpaces a Slowly Rebuilding Domestic Herd
Key Takeaways: The U.S. herd is stabilizing, but growth remains modest. Total goat inventory rose 1 percent in 2026, while meat-goat numbers increased 2 percent, which is not enough to materially reduce import dependence. Domestic slaughter is rising from a low base. Commercial slaughter incre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.305/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.27/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1975/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371.3/short ton, up $5...
Market Commentary: The Dust Settles
Given yesterday’s headlines, today’s market action may not be what many expected. The dollar is little changed, crude oil is pulling back and stocks are trading higher. Crude may be the biggest piece of today’s reversal. Saudi Arabia is offering additional crude to Asian buyer...
Livestock Round Up: USDA Plans to Expand Small and Very Small Beef Processors
Under an Executive Order on 4 September, USDA announced $50 million in new funding to help states establish or expand meat and poultry inspection programs as part of an effort to increase processing options for livestock producers. It’s called the Stand-Up Program, which will help states...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.3075/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.205/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $0.2 f...
Market Commentary: Markets Digest Fed Hike as Trade Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75–4.00 percent, its first rate increase since 2023, as policymakers respond to persistent inflation pressures. The Fed also signaled that additi...
USDA Reports - The Real Divide in American Agriculture Isn't Who Has the Data — It's Who Can Afford to Read It
Key Takeaways: USDA data access is equal; the ability to use it is not. Larger operations can afford experts who turn public reports into business decisions. Analytical capacity is the true advantage. Forecasts matter only when converted into profit, purchasing, and risk-management decisions...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.285/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1875/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.4/short ton, up $9.2 from...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Prices Reach Two-Year High
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices extended their rally Tuesday as disruptions to global supplies intensified. Saudi Arabia halted crude loadings at its Yanbu Red Sea port following the shutdown of the East-West Pipeline, while protests by oil-sector security workers forced the suspension...
WASDE Livestock and Meat Price Forecasts
The USDA has lowered its 2026 red meat production forecasts while leaving poultry almost unchanged. Beef is now projected at 24.877 billion pounds, 90 million pounds below August on slower Q3 fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights, along with an anticipated counterseasonal cutback in...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to $156.75/head last week, down $46.05 from the prior week as fed cattle prices strengthened while gains in the Choice cutout were comparatively modest. The Choice cutout increased...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.22/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0425/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.2/short ton, up $3.4 fro...
Market Commentary: Harvest Off to a Fast Start, Inflation Concerns Intensify
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices moved higher early Monday before giving back some of their gains after drone attacks forced the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a critical route for bypassing constrained shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption puts rou...
Cow-Calf Profit Expectations Weaken Further
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 1 percent below our August outlook and will be 1.2 percent below 2025 levels. Feed costs have lessen...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Soybeans, soymeal, and corn all reached a record net-long through Tuesday’s reporting deadline, although overall fund positioning across ag was mixed. Managed money traders bought 24,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reporting deadline, pushing the tota...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2525/bushel, down $0.16 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.965/bushel, down $0.3575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.8/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: September WASDE Leaves Grain Outlook Largely Intact
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean yields in the September WASDE report were close to pre-report expectations. The corn yield came in at 178.5 bushels per acre, compared with an average analyst estimate of 178.1, while the soybean yield was 52.8 bushels per acre, slightly abov...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.3225/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, up $5.5 from...
Market Commentary: Soy Exports, Technical Support Send CBOT Higher Before WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: Risk-on money flow was present in the markets Thursday with headlines in Iran and the Black Sea driving the move. Russia attacked more of Ukraine’s processing and export facilities, including a Bunge facility near the Black Sea. One of the facilities hit was...
Implications of $100+ per Barrel Crude Oil on Agriculture
Key Takeaways: The significance of $100-per-barrel crude depends largely on how long prices remain elevated, as sustained high energy costs are more likely to influence longer-term agricultural decisions. Higher crude oil prices raise farm production costs most directly through diesel, while a...
Livestock Round Up: Administration Actions on Beef Markets
Monday was Labor Day, the traditional end to the summer grilling season and high demand for cattle. Additionally, it marks the calendar end of summer heat and a transition into more moderate temperatures. As such, the next two months are the largest marketing periods of the year for feeder catt...
Dairy Feed Cost Volatility and Margins
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean meal markets are tightening together for the first time in more than a year, driven by lower U.S. yield expectations and continued Chinese soybean demand. A strong El Niño is replacing last year’s La Niña, shifting crop risk across the Americ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2875/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.095/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $351.4/short ton, up $...
Market Commentary: Pressure is Stacking Up
Energy: Fewer Routes, More Pressure Brent crude is back above $100, while WTI has closed higher for seven consecutive sessions as multiple supply routes come under pressure and the market runs out of workarounds. U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian crude-oil carriers Tuesday after Iran attempted...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins declined to $199/head last week, down $60 from the prior week as the Choice cutout retreated while fed cattle prices were steady. The cutout fell nearly $8/cwt to $374/cwt, while fed cattle held near $219/cwt, narrowing packer spreads after their sharp August recovery. Despi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.47/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.8/short ton, down $5.3 fro...
Market Commentary: Volatility is the Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to favor more beneficial conditions for finishing the corn and soybean crops, which is removing some weather risk premium from futures. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s September WASDE, which will offer major insight...
Is Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling Worth the Cost?
Key Takeaways: Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling would provide consumers with more consistent information about where their beef originates, but evidence from the previous COOL rule found little indication that labeling increased overall consumer demand for beef. The primary potential benef...
California: Bifurcated Markets for Ultra-Processed Food and Pork
The California General Assembly has passed a bill aimed at increasing transparency related to ultra-processed foods. California Governor Gavin Newsom has until 30 September to take action on the bill, though it will most likely be signed into law. Late last year, California became the first sta...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0975/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.1/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: Recent Rallies Lose Steam
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. and Chinese officials are expected to discuss agriculture and non-tariff trade barriers ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington later this month, potentially opening the door to additional U.S. agricultural purchases or improved marke...
Beef Trim Prices Set to Fall Even Without Added Imports
Key Takeaways: Drought and changes to the multi-year trend in cow slaughter and retention have the potential to dramatically alter beef trim supplies and pricing, and WPI specifically models three different drought scenarios for fall 2026. Based on our models, WPI expects 90 percent lean...
Triangulating China, U.S. and Brazil’s Chicken Exports
Brazil’s broiler exports are up 29.9 percent by volume in July and up 43.3 percent in value, and for the January through July period, exports rose 15.2 percent by volume and 19.3 percent in value. China was the top customer in July with 75,000 MT after being closed in July 2025 due to HPA...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities continued through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline with drought, yield, and Black Sea export concerns driving another week of massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 225,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday&rs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.5425/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.5/short ton, up $5.9...
Market Commentary: “Chances” for Peace and Disinflation; Cattle Market Meddling
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat futures pulled back sharply after Russian President Putin said there was a “chance” for peace and an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. There is plenty of skepticism about the opportunity for peace in Ukraine, but that didn’t stop wheat fr...
Livestock Round Up: Keeping Up With the Beef Market Policies
President Trump has opened the door to 100,000 MT of beef lean trimmings (limited to HTS codes 0201.30.5091, 0201.30.5097, 0202.30.5091, and 0202.30.5097) from countries listed under the “Other Countries” TRQ effective 1 September. These imports would not be subject to the over-quot...
Understanding Wool Marketing: How U.S. Prices Move With Australia Using the Last Five Years of Data
A Small Industry Tied to a Global Benchmark The U.S. wool industry is small by global standards but heavily export-dependent, with roughly 60 percent of U.S. wool leaving the country each year. Australia, by contrast, dominates world wool trade. Because the U.S. lacks a deep domestic auction ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Market Commentary: The Calendar Is Not in Control
Energy: Risk Over Rules Fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight. Tehran accused U.S. forces of striking a residential area after U.S. Central Command said its second round of attacks in three days targeted Iranian radar systems and mi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
Market Commentary: Contract Highs to Start September; Demand Destruction is the Point
What You Need to Know Today: The EPA offered an extension for 2025 RSF compliance reporting from 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026 and announced decisions on requests to exempt 34 small refineries from the requirements. The U.S. is stepping up attacks against Iran after two tankers carrying c...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply to $258/head last week, up $145 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices declined. The cutout rose to nearly $382/cwt, while fed cattle prices fell to $219/cwt, extending the rapid recovery in packer spreads that began in...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift on Profit Taking but Trend-Higher Regime Remains in Place
What You Need to Know Today: End-of-month profit taking sent the CBOT broadly lower, though corn and soybeans managed to post small gains to continue their rallies. Turkey’s foreign ministry claimed to have a plan to ensure safe passage for both Ukrainian and Russian grain vessels via th...
Trump Targets Meat Packing Sector with Latest Beef Announcement
As WPI reported on 21 August and on 27 August, President Trump has announced a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported without out-of-quota tariffs, which stand at 26.4 percent, allowing them in at 4.4 cents per kg, a move aimed at bring...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: After Bullish Week, WPI Bias is Higher but Risk Management More Important
What You Need to Know Today: Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all formed new contract or at least rally highs to close what has become one of the most uniformly bullish weeks in CBOT history. Escalations in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and attacks on civilian merchant vessels show n...
An Exploration of the Colorado River and Its Many Legal and Economic Canyons
You cannot escape the vortex of opinions about water scarcity in the Western United States, especially in the drought-stricken Colorado River Basin. Agriculture is the villain in many of these editorials. Agriculture uses too much water, so it should use less, is the refrain. We all wish it was...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: When Bottlenecks Move Markets
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Livestock Round Up: Ag Groups Push Back on Trump Beef Plan
As WPI reported on 21 August, President Trump has announced a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported outside of tariff-rate quotas, which stand at 26.4 percent, allowing imports at 4.4 cents per kg, a move aimed at bringing down costs f...
Why U.S. Lamb Prices Are Import-Anchored and Why Carcass Divergence Matters
Key Takeaways: Imports supply 70–75 percent of U.S. lamb disappearance, with Australia and New Zealand accounting for nearly all imported volume. The deficit is structural, not cyclical: domestic production cannot scale quickly enough to displace imports or reset the market’s refer...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Export, Yield, and Attack Headlines Drive Grains to New Highs
What You Need to Know Today: The day belonged to the bulls as fund buying and technical momentum boosted corn, soybeans, and wheat to new rally or contract highs. Wheat futures exploded Wednesday around the world after Russia indicated it will increase its attacks on Ukrainian export infrastru...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Falls Amid Shifting Economics
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 4–5 percent below our July outlook and will be 3 percent below 2025 levels. Costs are quickly...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3775/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Trade Dominates as Yields, Supplies Face Threats
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean crop ratings declined late Monday and set the stage for stronger CBOT trade Tuesday. Funds are in risk-on mode across the ag space, resulting in firm trade and solid gains for grains and oilseeds. Iran and Oman released a joint statement saying the...
The Netherlands: An Unlikely Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Despite its limited farmland, the Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter, focusing on high-value products such as dairy, flowers, meat, and vegetables. The Port of Rotterdam makes the Netherlands a major European agricultural trade hub, supporting significant processing an...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins swung back into positive territory at $114/head last week, improving $164 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices declined. The cutout rose nearly $8/cwt to $377/cwt, while fed cattle prices fell to $225/cwt, producing the strongest pack...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.995/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, up $2.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Yield Assessments Drive CBOT Reactions; Cattle Fall on Beef Import News
What You Need to Know Today: Pro Farmer’s crop tour pegged the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 173.2 BPA and anticipated a 15.344 Bbu crop – both figures well below expectations. Pro Farmer forecast 2026 U.S. soybean yields at 53.3 BPA, above most private estimates and USDA’s August W...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s August cattle on feed report was released Friday, with the total number of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more amounting to 11.1 million head, 102 percent of last year and the same as last month. Placements dropped in July to their lowest total for the month s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.4325/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4825/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.7/short ton, down $6.1...
Market Commentary: Weaker Spread Trade Hints at Slack Demand, Triggers Fund Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybeans were under heavy selling pressure as weaker (or at least as-expected) export demand runs into an accelerating harvest pace with more grain available in the spot market. Corn and soybean harvest progress remains below average across the U.S., espec...
Newcastle Disease Threatens Brazilian Poultry Exports, but Impact May Be Limited
Key Takeaways: Brazil confirmed a Newcastle disease outbreak at a commercial turkey farm in Santa Catarina on 18 October, raising concerns about potential disruptions to poultry exports despite the outbreak being confined to a single facility thus far. Mexico and Malaysia have imposed nationwi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.5525/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Perceptions of Production Change as Harvest Advances
What You Need to Know Today: Harvest pressure in the U.S. sent corn and soybeans lower as supplies increased and there were signs USDA’s upward revisions to yields in the October WASDE could be close to right. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend, with Ukrai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.6125/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Another Big Soybean Purchase from China This Week
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans continued to accelerate, with USDA reporting another 558 KMT sold to China and 236 KMT to unknown destinations. Combined with sales announced Wednesday and Thursday, the latest purchases bring the three-day total to approximately...
First Look at Realized 2026 Cow-Calf Profits
Key Takeaways: With the fall calf run now upon us, producers are finally getting a glimpse of what their realized profits will be for 2026. Some producers may have already obtained a strong estimate of 2026 revenues, especially if calves were forward sold in, for example, the mid-summer...
The Dynamics of the HPAI Vaccine Plan
As fall begins, wild migratory birds are starting their seasonal migration. That has the industry and government officials worried about the potential spread, again, of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Some members of Congress have called for the United States to be prepared for a pote...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fourth straight week, selling a net 119,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 13.1 percent. Corn accounted for 70 percent of the weekly selling, while funds also...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.78/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.63/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.8/short ton, down $4.7...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Slide Despite Renewed Chinese Buying as Crush Disappoints
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
Livestock Round Up
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
The Tale of Two Dairies under FMMO
Key Takeaways: Texas illustrates the assumptions underlying the 2025 FMMO reform; Idaho exposes their limitations. The Southwest order blend (roughly 27 percent Class I, 32 percent Class III and 31 percent Class IV) exposes Texas producers to every lever USDA adjusted, with a near-neutral proj...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7325/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $364.5/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Market Commentary: A Strong Dollar & A Short Fuse
Inflation is back in the driver’s seat, and agriculture is getting pulled in two directions. A stronger dollar is pressuring grains despite fresh Chinese buying, while renewed Middle East attacks lift crude oil. Higher energy prices can support commodities, but they also raise expenses an...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Ideas Abound
What You Need to Know Today: China’s state-run COFCO, in statements on Tuesday, implied that U.S. corn exports were currently uneconomical but hinted that the Middle Kingdom would import 3.5 MMT of the feed grain this year, with 1 MMT likely sourced from the U.S. Another drone attack has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.6925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $363.2/short ton, down $5...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins declined to $190/head last week, down $32 from the prior week as the Choice cutout weakened while fed cattle prices remained steady. The cutout fell $2.56/cwt to $373/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $220/cwt, narrowing packer spreads after several weeks of improvement...
Market Commentary: CBOT Break Produces Flurry of Tenders; Markets Consolidate Amid Trader Debate
What You Need to Know Today: USDA reports are delayed until Tuesday due to the federal holiday on Monday. Over the weekend, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Russia warmly welcomed and confirmed this ceasefire by conducting more strikes against Ukraine. Specific...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8775/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.7/short ton, up $3.1 f...
State of USMCA Talks: Progress with Mexico, Canada Stalled
On Saturday, 10 October, at a campaign rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, President Trump said that the U.S. and Mexico would come to terms on a new trade deal, and he said Canada does not need to be part of the deal. Trump called the coming agreement with Mexico “great” but gave no d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7975/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.71/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.92/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $8 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Yield Above Expectations Shakes Outlook, Trump Announces Russian Diesel Deal
What You Need to Know Today: Markets got a surprise with a corn yield of 181.2 bushels/acre in the October WASDE, above the average estimate of 177.6 bushels/acre and up from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bushels/acre. Although stronger demand is expected to absorb some of the addit...
WASDE Livestock and Meat Price Forecasts
The USDA has lowered its 2026 red meat production forecasts slightly while forecasting a slight increase in broiler production. Beef is now projected at 24.802 billion pounds, 75 million pounds less than in September. Cow slaughter is expected to be up; however, this will be offset by lower ste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the third straight week, selling a net 43,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 911,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, all three legs of the soy crush...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.6/short ton, down $8...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Ahead of WASDE; Pork Cutout Hits Multi-Year Low
What You Need to Know Today: Attention is turning toward Friday's USDA WASDE report, with traders looking for updated corn and soybean production estimates and revisions to domestic and global supply-and-demand balances. The report could help establish a clearer direction for grain price...
Beef and Cattle Prices: Expect Another Bullish Year in 2027
Key Takeaways: U.S. beef production is forecast to fall 10.5 percent in 2026 and remain unchanged in 2027, despite a mild recovery in fed cattle slaughter. Record beef imports will help offset shrinking domestic production, with imports forecast to increase 14.0 percent in 2026 and anoth...
Livestock Round Up: Beef Lean Trim Imports Fail to Bring Consumer Relief
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e. lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the ma...
Tariffs and the American Sheep, Goat, and Wool Industries
Key Takeaways: Lamb and goat tariffs protect market share, not prices. The flock is too small to respond quickly, and the burden depends on origin: 12.5 percent on Australia and New Zealand, reportedly 37.5 percent plus the base rate on China. Wool is most exposed via the export side. The U.S...
Market Commentary: Yesterday’s Momentum, Today’s Test
Yesterday’s momentum is facing a tougher test today. Stocks and most grain markets have pulled back, while higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar are making buyers work harder to defend the gains. Crude oil has turned lower, easing some immediate energy pressure, but the Fed minutes l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.865/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.8/short ton, up $11 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Crop Ratings Fall and Wheat Planting Stalls
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. corn condition ratings took a surprise turn for the worse in Monday’s report, with 54 percent rated good/excellent (down 3 percent). Dry weather in the U.S. Wheat Belt is stalling planting and causing concerns for the 2027 crop, in turn boosting futures...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.03/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, up $7.7 from ye...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $222/head last week, up $26 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices slipped lower. The cutout rose to $376/cwt while fed cattle fell to $220/cwt, strengthening packer returns. Margins remain exceptionally strong compared with...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9725/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8075/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.1/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Global Grain Demand Grows; Brazil Election, Currency Swing Boosts Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: The Brazilian real surged to start the week after a surprise election result in which right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round of the election. The swing in the U.S. dollar/Brazilian real (USD/BRL) exchange rate caused soybeans to jump sharply higher in earl...
Hog Industry Margins
Pork packer margins closed out September as positive, marking an improvement in a challenging 2026. According to Sterling Marketing, for the week ending 26 September, pork packer margins were $6.98 per head, which is up from a loss of $0.13 the previous week, more than double the margin of $3.9...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9775/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Weighs on Grains, Diesel Could See Much-Needed Relief
What You Need to Know Today: The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel reserves over four months, with a substantial diesel release front-loaded into the first 20 days. The announcement initially pushed crude oil lower on Friday, although it later recovered a portion o...
R-CALF Proposes Changes to Cattle Contracts
In a recent social media post, R-CALF unveiled its latest cattle market plan: “contracts that bind producers before establishing a base price, then tie that price to future negotiated cash transactions, should be prohibited.” That proposal aligns with recent legislation by Represent...
The Future of Cattle Pricing
Key Takeaways: The recent pearl-clutching from parts of the beef industry regarding the loss of the daily Kansas fed cattle negotiated trade pricing report is overwrought and ignores the fact that the direction was readily apparent. The shift away from negotiated trade has been well docu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 63,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 954,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soymeal reached a new r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0225/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.84/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $353.3/short ton, down $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Drier Weather Could Accelerate Soybean Harvest
What You Need to Know Today: A drier early-October forecast should help harvest accelerate across areas of the western Corn Belt that have been running behind, adding pressure to soybeans and soymeal today as concerns over near-term physical tightness begin to ease. Markets are still digesting...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 1 September last week. The total inventory of hogs and pigs in the U.S. was 74.3 million head, reflecting a 1 percent decrease from the previous year but a 1.6 percent increase from June 2026, when the June inventory was at its lowest since 2...
Where the Milk Goes Determines the Value
August 2026 milk production, the four-class pricing system, and the 2025 Federal Milk Marketing Order reforms Key Takeaways: U.S. milk production is growing because the herd is larger, not because cows are producing more milk. August output increased 1.7 percent, even as production per cow dec...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0075/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7575/bushel, down $0.17 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.93/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Quarter & Month End Reality Checks
Markets are getting a quarter-end reality check as September comes to a close. Growth, inflation and interest rates remain central to the macro outlook, while tight diesel supplies keep pressure on the cost of moving goods. States are stepping in with relief, but policy changes alone cannot reb...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9275/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.9775/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359/short ton, down $0.4 from y...
Market Commentary: Wet Midwest Weather, Grain Stocks Positioning Support CBOT
What You Need to Know Today: CBOT markets pared Monday’s sharp losses as traders booked short profits and adjusted positions ahead of the Grain Stocks report that USDA will release Wednesday afternoon. The 7-day QPF forecast from NOAA now shows heavy rain across the central and western C...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $196/head last week, up $20 from the prior week as fed cattle prices declined faster than the Choice cutout. The cutout eased to $375/cwt while fed cattle fell to $221/cwt, modestly widening packer spreads. Margins remain well above year-ago levels as lower cattl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.23/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8825/bushel, down $0.3075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.4/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Everything but Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Last week’s Trump-Xi meetings included China agreeing to roll back $60 billion in tariffs on a huge swath of U.S. ag products, just notably not soybeans. The exclusion of soybeans from the tariff-reduction list means China’s state-run importers COFCO an...
U.S.-China Deal Delivers Tariff Relief, but Little for Soybeans
Key Takeaways: The U.S.-China agreement lowers tariffs on several U.S. agricultural products, but the lack of additional soybean commitments or greater certainty surrounding China’s existing 25 MMT purchase pledge made the deal a slight disappointment. Lower tariffs on U.S. corn are unli...
Market Commentary: U.S.-China Talks Leave Markets Waiting for More
What You Need to Know Today: Headlines emerging from negotiations between President Trump and President Xi were relatively limited, with a more substantive announcement expected Monday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that additional details related to agricultural trade cou...
Cow-Calf Market Outlook
The heat of summer is now transitioning into more moderate temperatures, and the next two months have the busiest marketing periods of the year for replacement cattle. Weather always influences the replacement cattle market, and the primary grain belt in the Southern Plains, where many cattle a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.19/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371/short ton, down $1.4 fr...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
August 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks totaled 2.01 billion pounds, down 0.5 percent from July versus the typical 0.3 percent monthly decline, but 0.9 percent above August 2025 levels. Total red meat stocks rose 0.8 percent for the month despite typically declining 0.1 percent and were 8...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 3,200 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 1.017 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soybeans and soyme...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.07/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $372.4/short ton, up $1.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Markets Await Xi-Trump Meeting Outcome, Export Sales Disappoint
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived at the White House today as part of a highly anticipated three-day visit to the United States, marking his first visit to Washington in eleven years. Trade is expected to feature prominently in discussions with President Trump,...
Livestock Round Up: Quick Hits – Elections, Beef Imports, Xi Meeting and ICE
Officials from the Trump Administration are reportedly considering rolling back the Administration’s beef import plan as there is a growing panic about the midterm elections. The proposal to reduce the 300,000 MT of beef imports – 100,000 MT for September – is being discussed...
The Farm at the Edge of the World: American Agriculture and a Global Reckoning
Key Takeaways: The United States shifted from a decades-long agricultural trade surplus to a growing deficit, reaching roughly forty-one to forty-four billion dollars in recent fiscal years, a structural change rather than a cyclical dip. Brazil has overtaken the United States as the leading s...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.085/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.18/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $370.6/short ton, down $0.1...
Market Commentary: The Devil Is in the Details
Markets have no shortage of headlines today, but the reaction depends on what sits underneath them. Strong economic growth comes with renewed inflation pressure. Higher crude inventories do little to solve tight diesel supplies. Rain is delaying one crop while helping another, and trade expecta...
DDGS Price Outlook Turns Bullish
Key Takeaways: DDGS prices have been pushing higher this summer as corn, soybean meal, and other feedstuff values have surged amid strong export demand and supply concerns. WPI’s models anticipate additional gains for DDGS values heading into early 2027, with FOB plant prices reach...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.1725/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.255/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $370.7/short ton, up $2...
Market Commentary: Politics Drives Turnaround Tuesday
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures crashed on social media rumors that ICE raided one or possibly three fed cattle packing plants in Kansas Monday night or Tuesday morning. Operations at one plant have been disrupted and production curtailed. Outcomes for shipping via the Strait of Ho...
Soymeal Holds Its Value in an Oil-Driven Crush Market
Key Takeaways: The expansion of biofuel-driven soybean crushing was expected to increase soymeal supplies and pressure prices as soyoil became a larger driver of crush economics, but soymeal has instead retained considerable value. Strong domestic and global feed demand has helped absorb addit...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $176/head last week, up $19 from the prior week as the Choice cutout edged higher while fed cattle prices eased. The cutout rose to $376/cwt while fed cattle slipped to $222/cwt, modestly widening packer profits. Margins remain well above year-ago levels despite...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2675/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.28/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.4/short ton, up $9.8 from yes...
Market Commentary: CBOT Posts Bullish Technical Day ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting
What You Need to Know Today: Grain markets were sharply higher overnight and through the day session as the concerning wet weather pattern persists over the Midwest. Grain traders – and soybean market players in particular – will be closely parsing both what is said and unsaid from...
Senate Moves Farm Bill, but That May Be Not Enough
Last week, the Senate Ag Committee passed the farm bill on a party-line vote upon the return of Senators Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama), who missed the vote on 6 August (see WPI coverage here) when it failed by a similar party-line vote, 10-11. Democrats held the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets in the latest CFTC report, with funds selling a net 3,000 contracts through last Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing their combined net-long position to 1.021 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, pos...
Cattle on Feed - Sep 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed totaled 11.2 million head on September 1, 2026 – which was 1 percent above September 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during August totaled 1.62 million head - 9 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.52 million head - 3 percent below...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.1425/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.035/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $358.6/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Pulls Back, Bullish Cattle on Feed
What You Need to Know Today: The September Cattle on Feed report was strongly bullish, with both the 1 September on-feed inventory and August placements coming in well below average expectations and below the bottom of their respective pre-report estimate ranges. China continues to buy U...
Cattle on Feed Report: Lowest August Placements and Marketings on Record
USDA’s September cattle on feed report was released Friday, with the total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounting to 11.2 million head, 101 percent of last year. Placements dropped in August to their lowest total for the month since records began in 1996...
U.S. Goat Meat Market: Import Growth Outpaces a Slowly Rebuilding Domestic Herd
Key Takeaways: The U.S. herd is stabilizing, but growth remains modest. Total goat inventory rose 1 percent in 2026, while meat-goat numbers increased 2 percent, which is not enough to materially reduce import dependence. Domestic slaughter is rising from a low base. Commercial slaughter incre...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.305/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.27/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1975/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371.3/short ton, up $5...
Market Commentary: The Dust Settles
Given yesterday’s headlines, today’s market action may not be what many expected. The dollar is little changed, crude oil is pulling back and stocks are trading higher. Crude may be the biggest piece of today’s reversal. Saudi Arabia is offering additional crude to Asian buyer...
Livestock Round Up: USDA Plans to Expand Small and Very Small Beef Processors
Under an Executive Order on 4 September, USDA announced $50 million in new funding to help states establish or expand meat and poultry inspection programs as part of an effort to increase processing options for livestock producers. It’s called the Stand-Up Program, which will help states...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.3075/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.205/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $0.2 f...
Market Commentary: Markets Digest Fed Hike as Trade Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75–4.00 percent, its first rate increase since 2023, as policymakers respond to persistent inflation pressures. The Fed also signaled that additi...
USDA Reports - The Real Divide in American Agriculture Isn't Who Has the Data — It's Who Can Afford to Read It
Key Takeaways: USDA data access is equal; the ability to use it is not. Larger operations can afford experts who turn public reports into business decisions. Analytical capacity is the true advantage. Forecasts matter only when converted into profit, purchasing, and risk-management decisions...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.285/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1875/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.4/short ton, up $9.2 from...
Market Commentary: Soymeal Prices Reach Two-Year High
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices extended their rally Tuesday as disruptions to global supplies intensified. Saudi Arabia halted crude loadings at its Yanbu Red Sea port following the shutdown of the East-West Pipeline, while protests by oil-sector security workers forced the suspension...
WASDE Livestock and Meat Price Forecasts
The USDA has lowered its 2026 red meat production forecasts while leaving poultry almost unchanged. Beef is now projected at 24.877 billion pounds, 90 million pounds below August on slower Q3 fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights, along with an anticipated counterseasonal cutback in...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to $156.75/head last week, down $46.05 from the prior week as fed cattle prices strengthened while gains in the Choice cutout were comparatively modest. The Choice cutout increased...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.22/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0425/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.2/short ton, up $3.4 fro...
Market Commentary: Harvest Off to a Fast Start, Inflation Concerns Intensify
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices moved higher early Monday before giving back some of their gains after drone attacks forced the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a critical route for bypassing constrained shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption puts rou...
Cow-Calf Profit Expectations Weaken Further
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 1 percent below our August outlook and will be 1.2 percent below 2025 levels. Feed costs have lessen...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Soybeans, soymeal, and corn all reached a record net-long through Tuesday’s reporting deadline, although overall fund positioning across ag was mixed. Managed money traders bought 24,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reporting deadline, pushing the tota...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2525/bushel, down $0.16 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.965/bushel, down $0.3575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.8/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: September WASDE Leaves Grain Outlook Largely Intact
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean yields in the September WASDE report were close to pre-report expectations. The corn yield came in at 178.5 bushels per acre, compared with an average analyst estimate of 178.1, while the soybean yield was 52.8 bushels per acre, slightly abov...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.3225/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, up $5.5 from...
Market Commentary: Soy Exports, Technical Support Send CBOT Higher Before WASDE
What You Need to Know Today: Risk-on money flow was present in the markets Thursday with headlines in Iran and the Black Sea driving the move. Russia attacked more of Ukraine’s processing and export facilities, including a Bunge facility near the Black Sea. One of the facilities hit was...
Implications of $100+ per Barrel Crude Oil on Agriculture
Key Takeaways: The significance of $100-per-barrel crude depends largely on how long prices remain elevated, as sustained high energy costs are more likely to influence longer-term agricultural decisions. Higher crude oil prices raise farm production costs most directly through diesel, while a...
Livestock Round Up: Administration Actions on Beef Markets
Monday was Labor Day, the traditional end to the summer grilling season and high demand for cattle. Additionally, it marks the calendar end of summer heat and a transition into more moderate temperatures. As such, the next two months are the largest marketing periods of the year for feeder catt...
Dairy Feed Cost Volatility and Margins
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean meal markets are tightening together for the first time in more than a year, driven by lower U.S. yield expectations and continued Chinese soybean demand. A strong El Niño is replacing last year’s La Niña, shifting crop risk across the Americ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2875/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.095/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $351.4/short ton, up $...
Market Commentary: Pressure is Stacking Up
Energy: Fewer Routes, More Pressure Brent crude is back above $100, while WTI has closed higher for seven consecutive sessions as multiple supply routes come under pressure and the market runs out of workarounds. U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian crude-oil carriers Tuesday after Iran attempted...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins declined to $199/head last week, down $60 from the prior week as the Choice cutout retreated while fed cattle prices were steady. The cutout fell nearly $8/cwt to $374/cwt, while fed cattle held near $219/cwt, narrowing packer spreads after their sharp August recovery. Despi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.47/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.8/short ton, down $5.3 fro...
Market Commentary: Volatility is the Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to favor more beneficial conditions for finishing the corn and soybean crops, which is removing some weather risk premium from futures. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s September WASDE, which will offer major insight...
Is Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling Worth the Cost?
Key Takeaways: Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling would provide consumers with more consistent information about where their beef originates, but evidence from the previous COOL rule found little indication that labeling increased overall consumer demand for beef. The primary potential benef...
California: Bifurcated Markets for Ultra-Processed Food and Pork
The California General Assembly has passed a bill aimed at increasing transparency related to ultra-processed foods. California Governor Gavin Newsom has until 30 September to take action on the bill, though it will most likely be signed into law. Late last year, California became the first sta...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0975/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.1/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: Recent Rallies Lose Steam
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. and Chinese officials are expected to discuss agriculture and non-tariff trade barriers ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington later this month, potentially opening the door to additional U.S. agricultural purchases or improved marke...
Beef Trim Prices Set to Fall Even Without Added Imports
Key Takeaways: Drought and changes to the multi-year trend in cow slaughter and retention have the potential to dramatically alter beef trim supplies and pricing, and WPI specifically models three different drought scenarios for fall 2026. Based on our models, WPI expects 90 percent lean...
Triangulating China, U.S. and Brazil’s Chicken Exports
Brazil’s broiler exports are up 29.9 percent by volume in July and up 43.3 percent in value, and for the January through July period, exports rose 15.2 percent by volume and 19.3 percent in value. China was the top customer in July with 75,000 MT after being closed in July 2025 due to HPA...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities continued through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline with drought, yield, and Black Sea export concerns driving another week of massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 225,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday&rs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.5425/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.5/short ton, up $5.9...
Market Commentary: “Chances” for Peace and Disinflation; Cattle Market Meddling
What You Need to Know Today: Wheat futures pulled back sharply after Russian President Putin said there was a “chance” for peace and an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. There is plenty of skepticism about the opportunity for peace in Ukraine, but that didn’t stop wheat fr...
Livestock Round Up: Keeping Up With the Beef Market Policies
President Trump has opened the door to 100,000 MT of beef lean trimmings (limited to HTS codes 0201.30.5091, 0201.30.5097, 0202.30.5091, and 0202.30.5097) from countries listed under the “Other Countries” TRQ effective 1 September. These imports would not be subject to the over-quot...
Understanding Wool Marketing: How U.S. Prices Move With Australia Using the Last Five Years of Data
A Small Industry Tied to a Global Benchmark The U.S. wool industry is small by global standards but heavily export-dependent, with roughly 60 percent of U.S. wool leaving the country each year. Australia, by contrast, dominates world wool trade. Because the U.S. lacks a deep domestic auction ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Market Commentary: The Calendar Is Not in Control
Energy: Risk Over Rules Fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight. Tehran accused U.S. forces of striking a residential area after U.S. Central Command said its second round of attacks in three days targeted Iranian radar systems and mi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
Market Commentary: Contract Highs to Start September; Demand Destruction is the Point
What You Need to Know Today: The EPA offered an extension for 2025 RSF compliance reporting from 1 September 2026 to 1 October 2026 and announced decisions on requests to exempt 34 small refineries from the requirements. The U.S. is stepping up attacks against Iran after two tankers carrying c...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply to $258/head last week, up $145 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices declined. The cutout rose to nearly $382/cwt, while fed cattle prices fell to $219/cwt, extending the rapid recovery in packer spreads that began in...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift on Profit Taking but Trend-Higher Regime Remains in Place
What You Need to Know Today: End-of-month profit taking sent the CBOT broadly lower, though corn and soybeans managed to post small gains to continue their rallies. Turkey’s foreign ministry claimed to have a plan to ensure safe passage for both Ukrainian and Russian grain vessels via th...
Trump Targets Meat Packing Sector with Latest Beef Announcement
As WPI reported on 21 August and on 27 August, President Trump has announced a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported without out-of-quota tariffs, which stand at 26.4 percent, allowing them in at 4.4 cents per kg, a move aimed at bring...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Market Commentary: After Bullish Week, WPI Bias is Higher but Risk Management More Important
What You Need to Know Today: Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all formed new contract or at least rally highs to close what has become one of the most uniformly bullish weeks in CBOT history. Escalations in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine and attacks on civilian merchant vessels show n...
An Exploration of the Colorado River and Its Many Legal and Economic Canyons
You cannot escape the vortex of opinions about water scarcity in the Western United States, especially in the drought-stricken Colorado River Basin. Agriculture is the villain in many of these editorials. Agriculture uses too much water, so it should use less, is the refrain. We all wish it was...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Market Commentary: When Bottlenecks Move Markets
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Livestock Round Up: Ag Groups Push Back on Trump Beef Plan
As WPI reported on 21 August, President Trump has announced a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported outside of tariff-rate quotas, which stand at 26.4 percent, allowing imports at 4.4 cents per kg, a move aimed at bringing down costs f...
Why U.S. Lamb Prices Are Import-Anchored and Why Carcass Divergence Matters
Key Takeaways: Imports supply 70–75 percent of U.S. lamb disappearance, with Australia and New Zealand accounting for nearly all imported volume. The deficit is structural, not cyclical: domestic production cannot scale quickly enough to displace imports or reset the market’s refer...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Export, Yield, and Attack Headlines Drive Grains to New Highs
What You Need to Know Today: The day belonged to the bulls as fund buying and technical momentum boosted corn, soybeans, and wheat to new rally or contract highs. Wheat futures exploded Wednesday around the world after Russia indicated it will increase its attacks on Ukrainian export infrastru...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Falls Amid Shifting Economics
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 4–5 percent below our July outlook and will be 3 percent below 2025 levels. Costs are quickly...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.3775/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.2/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Market Commentary: Risk-On Trade Dominates as Yields, Supplies Face Threats
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean crop ratings declined late Monday and set the stage for stronger CBOT trade Tuesday. Funds are in risk-on mode across the ag space, resulting in firm trade and solid gains for grains and oilseeds. Iran and Oman released a joint statement saying the...
The Netherlands: An Unlikely Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Despite its limited farmland, the Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter, focusing on high-value products such as dairy, flowers, meat, and vegetables. The Port of Rotterdam makes the Netherlands a major European agricultural trade hub, supporting significant processing an...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins swung back into positive territory at $114/head last week, improving $164 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices declined. The cutout rose nearly $8/cwt to $377/cwt, while fed cattle prices fell to $225/cwt, producing the strongest pack...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.995/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $328.6/short ton, up $2.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Yield Assessments Drive CBOT Reactions; Cattle Fall on Beef Import News
What You Need to Know Today: Pro Farmer’s crop tour pegged the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 173.2 BPA and anticipated a 15.344 Bbu crop – both figures well below expectations. Pro Farmer forecast 2026 U.S. soybean yields at 53.3 BPA, above most private estimates and USDA’s August W...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s August cattle on feed report was released Friday, with the total number of cattle in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more amounting to 11.1 million head, 102 percent of last year and the same as last month. Placements dropped in July to their lowest total for the month s...