Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.5175/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $7.7...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 18 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 13 December 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets are in the middle of the holiday-season slowdown with thin and very quiet trade characterizing what little market activity is present. The peak demand period from the North American grain harvest has now past bu...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows for Soybeans; Soyoil Makes Bear Move; Feeder Cattle Post Turnaround Tuesday
Bears were in full control of the CBOT on Tuesday with soybeans hitting new contract lows, soyoil posting a bearish breakout from technical formations, and wheat flirting with contract lows. Not even the news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations and Spain...
Dissecting the Retail Sales Report
Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November; this was slightly higher than the consensus expectations. There are a few nuances to consider, however. First, the Thanksgiving holiday was late this year. The holiday is on the fourth Thursday of the month. Given the way the calendar played out in 202...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7675/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, up $0.3 from...
Tear it Up II; Splitting GM Wheat; DOFE
Tear it Up IICanada’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned and President-elect Donald Trump is being blamed. That is an over-simplification and she appears to have run away from a fight. But her resignation raises the question of how Canada and Mexico will handle Mr. Trump. Both countr...
Livestock Industry Margins
Pork packers were the only sector of the livestock industry to see significant improvement in profit margins last week. In contrast, beef packers saw margins fall by another $35/head as the sharp rally in fed cattle prices offset mild gains in beef values. For feedlots, expected profits for las...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Lame Duck Docket: Appropriations, Farm Bill and Ag Related National Defense Authorization Provisions
As of today, Congress has four days until government funding expires, and 15 days to pass a farm bill extension before (31 December) permanent law goes into effect, which could have negative impacts on commodity markets. Lawmakers are still working to finalize a stopgap funding bill that w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.82/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $0.7 from yeste...
Trump’s War on American Agriculture
American agriculture is already facing a less affluent future. Commodity prices have softened, and South America now dominates the global export market. The U.S. share of global agricultural trade has fallen by two-thirds. Major importers have typically chafed under their dependence upon foreig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Market Commentary: Dithering Through the Holidays
There is no way to make this sexy. This is a market mostly perceived to be at equilibrium. Perceptions can be wrong but with nothing else to go on, volume declined this week and, barring some surprise, will be even lower through the holidays. There was nothing unlucky about Friday the 13th, unl...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.2/short ton, down $3.3 f...
Near-Term Beef and Cattle Market Outlook
The recent unexpected surge in physical fed cattle prices has created significant discussion about what the beef and cattle price environment will be heading into the new year. It’s no secret that fed cattle supplies remain tight and that the pipeline is low amid the ban on feeder cattle import...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds, Cattle All Fall on Exports and Technical Pressure
A disappointing Export Sales report for most of the major commodities sent CBOT futures broadly lower on Thursday. Export sales and shipments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all on the low end of expectations and below last week’s values, which prompted traders to abandon (temporarily, at le...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish WASDE 2025 Outlook
This week’s WASDE held steady the price outlook for 2024 fed steers and broilers and increased hog prices slightly. The fed cattle price has generally been forecast up all year, except for a drop in the September estimates. 12122024dj.png 29.46 KBPrices for all species are expected to inc...
Food Fight Ahead; UPF Boogeyman
Food Fight AheadThere are two committee confirmation hearings that aggies will be watching intently early next year: the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & Pensions (HELP) on the nomination of RFK, Jr.; and the Senate Agriculture Committee on the nomination of Brooke Rollins. Th...
Oilseed Highlights: Limping Along
The MarketSoybean futures continue their steady, narrow-range trading. South America is the big unknown and hedging both upside and downside risk means hovering right where we are. Soybean export sales last week were the second lowest of the marketing year, indicating buyers see lower prices ah...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 29-December 5, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 290,200 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 198,900 MT were down 38 percent from the previous week and 33 perc...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm Following Bullish WASDE; Cattle Extend Rally
Grain futures continued to find support from Tuesday’s bullish WASDE report with corn, wheat, and soybeans all trading higher, though corn futures dipped into the red during the final minutes of trading. Traders followed through on the bullish signals from the WASDE as well as increasingly bull...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6325/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.955/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.9 fro...
Hunger Games; Power of Deregulation
Hunger GamesDonald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are unconventional, far more so than in his first term as president. It could result in a shakeup of staid and static policy prescriptions, or it could amount to nothing more than a bunch of four-year-olds attempting to play soccer. The DNI nominee qu...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Market Commentary: WASDE Increases Corn, Soyoil Demand; Cattle Rally on Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the WASDE as funds were cautiously covering shorts and paring back risk before the holidays. The WASDE proved to be slightly bullish corn and mostly neutral soybeans and wheat, proving the short-covering trend to have been a good idea. Aside from the WASD...
New Leadership for Congressional Energy Committees
With the retirement from Congress of House Energy and Commerce (HEC) Committee chair Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA), the gavel was up for grabs in what is arguably the most powerful committee in the House. The third and fourth ranking Republicans, Representatives Bob Latta of Ohio and Brett Guthr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $292/short ton, up $2.4 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
The livestock packing sector saw mixed trends in profitability over the past week with packer margins improving for both the beef and pork sectors. Beef packing margins have been negative for five weeks now and hog packing margins in the red for three weeks, both of which present a threat to pr...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Ahead of the WASDE
The CBOT saw mostly WASDE-motivated short covering on Monday with funds scaling back short positions in wheat and soybeans and cautiously extending longs in the corn market. Fresh news was light for the day and traders were mostly focused on adjusting positions ahead of the WASDE. The weather r...
EU’s Approach to Trump; Ignoring FTA’s; Laying the Trap
EU’s Approach to TrumpAs Europe’s economy founders under a tax and regulate approach, and its security becomes increasingly threatened by appeasement and inadequate defense spending, its leaders talk ready to get tough with Donald Trump. Some suggest preempting Trump tariffs by negotiating an e...
Red Meat and Broiler Trade
October meat and livestock trade data was released on Friday. Beef exports are down 2.6 percent at 2.5 billion pounds, following lower U.S. beef production (down 0.4 percent) and higher prices. October exports to Canada fell 23.7 percent. Exports to Japan were flat year to date at 543 million p...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.2 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is funds paring back risk in corn and the soy complex heading into the December WASDE report and/or the holiday season. Corn’s range-bound trade these past two weeks prompted funds to shed 13 percent of their long position in the market and have liquida...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: Soybean meal hit a new contract low at 285.6/ST. Beef, feeders, and soymeal all closed lower today. All three wheats ended the week higher de...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.4/short ton, down $3.7 from yesterda...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027. At the time, this provision was hailed as a potential game changer for biofuels and feedstock production. The problem is guidance for qualif...
EU-Mercosur Fallout; Get Your Own; WTO Ignored
EU-Mercosur FalloutThe EU and Mercosur reached agreement on a quarter century effort to have a free trade agreement. Tariffs will be removed on over 90 percent of two-way trade. The agreement has further procedural hurdles to overcome. France leads an effort to construct a blocking minority of...
Updates on Renewable Diesel Demand and Soyoil Pricing
The recent weakness in soyoil prices – and, indeed, the multi-year plunge from record highs in 2022 – has been driven by the dynamics of declining expectations for consumption of renewable diesel and biodiesel. This fact is likely well known by WPI readers, though the details of what exactly ha...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Higher on Export Data
The CBOT moved higher on Thursday after the weekly Export Sales report provided bullish demand-side inputs for the major commodities. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soyoil futures all pushed higher for the day with export demand seeming to pick up and remain above expectations in the case of corn,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from yesterda...
Oilseed Highlights: Hovering Lower but Holding Steady
MarketAfter four sessions of yoyoing up and down on lower volume, January soybeans are rangebound and net 4.25 cents higher thus far this week. There have been no fundamental changes and that leaves traders comfortable with where things stand. Going more bearish would be getting out in front of...
Livestock Roundup: Feeder Cattle Prices
Recent rains have been supportive of feeder cattle prices. The moisture has been a catalyst to prices given the smaller overall supply of calves with drought no longer pulling ahead of feeder cattle placements. This development comes on top of the normal seasonal pattern of high calf prices thi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 22-28, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 378,200 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 322,400 MT were down 26 percent from the previous week, but up 1...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat; Cattle Contemplate their Direction
The CBOT continued its mostly range-bound trading affair on Wednesday with the ag markets seeing little fresh news to drive price action one way or another. Wheat futures hit new contract lows but recovered from that selloff to end slightly higher, though the market seems committed to staying n...
Squaring Budget and Taxes; Trade War; F&V Self-Destruction
Squaring Budget and TaxesU.S. agricultural spending could get squeezed between the incoming Trump Administration’s desire to extend tax cuts, which creates a $4 trillion budget hole, and reducing the size of government. The so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk an...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8375/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.5 from y...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trade Yields Few Gains; Cattle Continue Rally
The CBOT saw firmer trade on Tuesday, but that strength failed to develop into anything really meaningful on the charts. The soy complex saw the most widespread strength on the heels of a record-breaking U.S. crush in November, as reported by the USDA on Monday, and from Tuesday’s rally in crud...
Reorganizing in Congress – Potential Moves Among Aggies
Congress will return to Washington this week to kick off the post-election lame duck session of Congress. The docket is busy with only 12 joint legislative days left and government funding set to expire on 20 December. And the Farm Bill is set to expire on 31 December unless an extension can be...
Trade Abusers; Working Class Appeals; Healthy Elites
Trade AbusersThe West blames China for over-production but the global narrative is that China has embraced global trade and it is the U.S. that has become isolationist. This framing is disputed by Stewart Paterson at the Singapore-based Hinrich Foundation. He notes that trade flows show the opp...
God Given Right
Expectations and reality do not always match. This is especially true in rich democracies where citizens expect their voices to be heard, or else. This dynamic works most of the time, for most people, but not always with rational results. German statistician Ernst Engel noted that what people s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3225/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $290.4/short ton, up $2.5 from...
Market Commentary: Tariff Tweets Threaten to Upend Typically Slow Pre-Holiday Trade
The CBOT was mixed and mostly lower to start the between-holidays trading season with the soy complex seeing the worst of the selling. Soybeans – and the oilseed complex more broadly – are seeing pressure from excellent conditions in South America as well as the political ramifications of Presi...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8525/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.9/short ton, down $4 f...
Food versus Populism; Food in Perspective; Beauty of the Algorithm; Tariffs as Panacea
Food versus PopulismPresident-elect Donald Trump’s selection of RFK, Jr. to oversee a food system that he wants to remake without chemicals and ultra-processing, or mega farms, or seed oils, is going to be both fun and excruciating to watch. The sheer mass of the food-sector battleship should b...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 15-21, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 366,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 33 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 433,800 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 89 perc...
Market Commentary: Holiday Thinned but Notable Trade
With no overnight trading for comparison and shortened trading hours today, volume was low and there were no dramatic shifts. Friday’s agricultural futures trading mostly reinforced current trends. Those include:Trading this week lopped off the most value from wheat and lean hogsThe March HRW c...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.33/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.48/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.895/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $3.5 from yest...
Imports of Mexican Cattle Temporarily Suspended
A week ago today, on 22 November, the Chief Veterinary Officer of Mexico notified the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of a positive detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. The NWS was found in a cow in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas, at an inspection ch...
Mexico Corn Market Update
Mexico has been in the commodity news a lot recently, first due to its surge in imports from the U.S. and, this week, due to Trump’s threatened tariffs against the country. Given the importance of the country for U.S. grain and other agricultural exports (not to mention imports) WPI offers the...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Happy Thanksgiving
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 28 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 29 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $295.4/short ton, up $4 from yesterday...
USTR Nominee; Changing Eating Habits
USTR NomineeTariffs are President-Elect Trumps most repeated policy focus but his selection of the next U.S. Trade Representative came nearly last. At least Jamieson Greer is a somewhat known quantity. World Trade Online says, “Stakeholders see what they want to see in Greer as USTR.” Having se...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
Channeling Hamilton; Gastronationalism Gone Awry; Science Reverts to Nonpartisan; Black Friday Deals
Channeling HamiltonAlexander Hamilton, the first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, encouraged the Tariff Act of 1789, the Tariff Act of 1790, and the Tariff Act of 1792. He used tariffs to fund the government and protect domestic industries from British exports. President-elect Trump has pledged...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.58/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.835/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $4.5 from...
Energy Outlook
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its short-term energy outlook (STEO) earlier this month, with outlooks for crude oil, natural gas, and propane. The price outlook is for lower crude prices, higher for natural gas, and flat for propane in the Midwest, and slightly lower...
Anchor on U.S. Agricultural Exports
The U.S. dollar was already at a two-year high when President-Elect Donald Trump announced he would impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico over drugs and immigration. The Canadian dollar was at a four year low against the dollar and fell further. The peso also fell and is now at its weakest in ove...
Market Commentary: The Soybean Breakdown
The country song Oklahoma Breakdown (originally written by Mike Hosty, subsequently popularized by red dirt country artist Stony LaRue, then eventually covered by Toby Keith who, in this analyst’s opinion, ruined it) contains the line “That Oklahoma Breakdown sure do got you cryin’” – a stateme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.5175/bushel, down $0.25 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $279.5/short ton, down $7.7...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 18 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 13 December 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets are in the middle of the holiday-season slowdown with thin and very quiet trade characterizing what little market activity is present. The peak demand period from the North American grain harvest has now past bu...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows for Soybeans; Soyoil Makes Bear Move; Feeder Cattle Post Turnaround Tuesday
Bears were in full control of the CBOT on Tuesday with soybeans hitting new contract lows, soyoil posting a bearish breakout from technical formations, and wheat flirting with contract lows. Not even the news of fresh export sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations and Spain...
Dissecting the Retail Sales Report
Retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November; this was slightly higher than the consensus expectations. There are a few nuances to consider, however. First, the Thanksgiving holiday was late this year. The holiday is on the fourth Thursday of the month. Given the way the calendar played out in 202...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.7675/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, up $0.3 from...
Tear it Up II; Splitting GM Wheat; DOFE
Tear it Up IICanada’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned and President-elect Donald Trump is being blamed. That is an over-simplification and she appears to have run away from a fight. But her resignation raises the question of how Canada and Mexico will handle Mr. Trump. Both countr...
Livestock Industry Margins
Pork packers were the only sector of the livestock industry to see significant improvement in profit margins last week. In contrast, beef packers saw margins fall by another $35/head as the sharp rally in fed cattle prices offset mild gains in beef values. For feedlots, expected profits for las...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Lame Duck Docket: Appropriations, Farm Bill and Ag Related National Defense Authorization Provisions
As of today, Congress has four days until government funding expires, and 15 days to pass a farm bill extension before (31 December) permanent law goes into effect, which could have negative impacts on commodity markets. Lawmakers are still working to finalize a stopgap funding bill that w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.82/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $0.7 from yeste...
Trump’s War on American Agriculture
American agriculture is already facing a less affluent future. Commodity prices have softened, and South America now dominates the global export market. The U.S. share of global agricultural trade has fallen by two-thirds. Major importers have typically chafed under their dependence upon foreig...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...
Market Commentary: Dithering Through the Holidays
There is no way to make this sexy. This is a market mostly perceived to be at equilibrium. Perceptions can be wrong but with nothing else to go on, volume declined this week and, barring some surprise, will be even lower through the holidays. There was nothing unlucky about Friday the 13th, unl...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $286.2/short ton, down $3.3 f...
Near-Term Beef and Cattle Market Outlook
The recent unexpected surge in physical fed cattle prices has created significant discussion about what the beef and cattle price environment will be heading into the new year. It’s no secret that fed cattle supplies remain tight and that the pipeline is low amid the ban on feeder cattle import...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds, Cattle All Fall on Exports and Technical Pressure
A disappointing Export Sales report for most of the major commodities sent CBOT futures broadly lower on Thursday. Export sales and shipments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all on the low end of expectations and below last week’s values, which prompted traders to abandon (temporarily, at le...
Livestock Roundup: Bullish WASDE 2025 Outlook
This week’s WASDE held steady the price outlook for 2024 fed steers and broilers and increased hog prices slightly. The fed cattle price has generally been forecast up all year, except for a drop in the September estimates. 12122024dj.png 29.46 KBPrices for all species are expected to inc...
Food Fight Ahead; UPF Boogeyman
Food Fight AheadThere are two committee confirmation hearings that aggies will be watching intently early next year: the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & Pensions (HELP) on the nomination of RFK, Jr.; and the Senate Agriculture Committee on the nomination of Brooke Rollins. Th...
Oilseed Highlights: Limping Along
The MarketSoybean futures continue their steady, narrow-range trading. South America is the big unknown and hedging both upside and downside risk means hovering right where we are. Soybean export sales last week were the second lowest of the marketing year, indicating buyers see lower prices ah...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 29-December 5, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 290,200 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 198,900 MT were down 38 percent from the previous week and 33 perc...
Market Commentary: Grains Firm Following Bullish WASDE; Cattle Extend Rally
Grain futures continued to find support from Tuesday’s bullish WASDE report with corn, wheat, and soybeans all trading higher, though corn futures dipped into the red during the final minutes of trading. Traders followed through on the bullish signals from the WASDE as well as increasingly bull...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6325/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.955/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.9 fro...
Hunger Games; Power of Deregulation
Hunger GamesDonald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are unconventional, far more so than in his first term as president. It could result in a shakeup of staid and static policy prescriptions, or it could amount to nothing more than a bunch of four-year-olds attempting to play soccer. The DNI nominee qu...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Market Commentary: WASDE Increases Corn, Soyoil Demand; Cattle Rally on Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher heading into the WASDE as funds were cautiously covering shorts and paring back risk before the holidays. The WASDE proved to be slightly bullish corn and mostly neutral soybeans and wheat, proving the short-covering trend to have been a good idea. Aside from the WASD...
New Leadership for Congressional Energy Committees
With the retirement from Congress of House Energy and Commerce (HEC) Committee chair Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA), the gavel was up for grabs in what is arguably the most powerful committee in the House. The third and fourth ranking Republicans, Representatives Bob Latta of Ohio and Brett Guthr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.49/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9475/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $292/short ton, up $2.4 from yester...
Livestock Industry Margins
The livestock packing sector saw mixed trends in profitability over the past week with packer margins improving for both the beef and pork sectors. Beef packing margins have been negative for five weeks now and hog packing margins in the red for three weeks, both of which present a threat to pr...
Market Commentary: Short Covering Ahead of the WASDE
The CBOT saw mostly WASDE-motivated short covering on Monday with funds scaling back short positions in wheat and soybeans and cautiously extending longs in the corn market. Fresh news was light for the day and traders were mostly focused on adjusting positions ahead of the WASDE. The weather r...
EU’s Approach to Trump; Ignoring FTA’s; Laying the Trap
EU’s Approach to TrumpAs Europe’s economy founders under a tax and regulate approach, and its security becomes increasingly threatened by appeasement and inadequate defense spending, its leaders talk ready to get tough with Donald Trump. Some suggest preempting Trump tariffs by negotiating an e...
Red Meat and Broiler Trade
October meat and livestock trade data was released on Friday. Beef exports are down 2.6 percent at 2.5 billion pounds, following lower U.S. beef production (down 0.4 percent) and higher prices. October exports to Canada fell 23.7 percent. Exports to Japan were flat year to date at 543 million p...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $289.6/short ton, up $2.2 from ye...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major theme of the latest CFTC report is funds paring back risk in corn and the soy complex heading into the December WASDE report and/or the holiday season. Corn’s range-bound trade these past two weeks prompted funds to shed 13 percent of their long position in the market and have liquida...
Market Commentary: Market Breath Holding for Tuesday
Commodity futures trading had a modest day and a modest week, but things will pick up with Tuesday’s USDA December WASDE report. Notable metrics include: Soybean meal hit a new contract low at 285.6/ST. Beef, feeders, and soymeal all closed lower today. All three wheats ended the week higher de...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.4/short ton, down $3.7 from yesterda...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027. At the time, this provision was hailed as a potential game changer for biofuels and feedstock production. The problem is guidance for qualif...
EU-Mercosur Fallout; Get Your Own; WTO Ignored
EU-Mercosur FalloutThe EU and Mercosur reached agreement on a quarter century effort to have a free trade agreement. Tariffs will be removed on over 90 percent of two-way trade. The agreement has further procedural hurdles to overcome. France leads an effort to construct a blocking minority of...
Updates on Renewable Diesel Demand and Soyoil Pricing
The recent weakness in soyoil prices – and, indeed, the multi-year plunge from record highs in 2022 – has been driven by the dynamics of declining expectations for consumption of renewable diesel and biodiesel. This fact is likely well known by WPI readers, though the details of what exactly ha...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Higher on Export Data
The CBOT moved higher on Thursday after the weekly Export Sales report provided bullish demand-side inputs for the major commodities. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and soyoil futures all pushed higher for the day with export demand seeming to pick up and remain above expectations in the case of corn,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from yesterda...
Oilseed Highlights: Hovering Lower but Holding Steady
MarketAfter four sessions of yoyoing up and down on lower volume, January soybeans are rangebound and net 4.25 cents higher thus far this week. There have been no fundamental changes and that leaves traders comfortable with where things stand. Going more bearish would be getting out in front of...
Livestock Roundup: Feeder Cattle Prices
Recent rains have been supportive of feeder cattle prices. The moisture has been a catalyst to prices given the smaller overall supply of calves with drought no longer pulling ahead of feeder cattle placements. This development comes on top of the normal seasonal pattern of high calf prices thi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 22-28, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 378,200 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 322,400 MT were down 26 percent from the previous week, but up 1...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat; Cattle Contemplate their Direction
The CBOT continued its mostly range-bound trading affair on Wednesday with the ag markets seeing little fresh news to drive price action one way or another. Wheat futures hit new contract lows but recovered from that selloff to end slightly higher, though the market seems committed to staying n...
Squaring Budget and Taxes; Trade War; F&V Self-Destruction
Squaring Budget and TaxesU.S. agricultural spending could get squeezed between the incoming Trump Administration’s desire to extend tax cuts, which creates a $4 trillion budget hole, and reducing the size of government. The so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk an...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8375/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $1.5 from y...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trade Yields Few Gains; Cattle Continue Rally
The CBOT saw firmer trade on Tuesday, but that strength failed to develop into anything really meaningful on the charts. The soy complex saw the most widespread strength on the heels of a record-breaking U.S. crush in November, as reported by the USDA on Monday, and from Tuesday’s rally in crud...
Reorganizing in Congress – Potential Moves Among Aggies
Congress will return to Washington this week to kick off the post-election lame duck session of Congress. The docket is busy with only 12 joint legislative days left and government funding set to expire on 20 December. And the Farm Bill is set to expire on 31 December unless an extension can be...
Trade Abusers; Working Class Appeals; Healthy Elites
Trade AbusersThe West blames China for over-production but the global narrative is that China has embraced global trade and it is the U.S. that has become isolationist. This framing is disputed by Stewart Paterson at the Singapore-based Hinrich Foundation. He notes that trade flows show the opp...
God Given Right
Expectations and reality do not always match. This is especially true in rich democracies where citizens expect their voices to be heard, or else. This dynamic works most of the time, for most people, but not always with rational results. German statistician Ernst Engel noted that what people s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.3225/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $290.4/short ton, up $2.5 from...
Market Commentary: Tariff Tweets Threaten to Upend Typically Slow Pre-Holiday Trade
The CBOT was mixed and mostly lower to start the between-holidays trading season with the soy complex seeing the worst of the selling. Soybeans – and the oilseed complex more broadly – are seeing pressure from excellent conditions in South America as well as the political ramifications of Presi...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.4725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8525/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $287.9/short ton, down $4 f...
Food versus Populism; Food in Perspective; Beauty of the Algorithm; Tariffs as Panacea
Food versus PopulismPresident-elect Donald Trump’s selection of RFK, Jr. to oversee a food system that he wants to remake without chemicals and ultra-processing, or mega farms, or seed oils, is going to be both fun and excruciating to watch. The sheer mass of the food-sector battleship should b...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for November 15-21, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 366,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 33 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 433,800 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and up 89 perc...
Market Commentary: Holiday Thinned but Notable Trade
With no overnight trading for comparison and shortened trading hours today, volume was low and there were no dramatic shifts. Friday’s agricultural futures trading mostly reinforced current trends. Those include:Trading this week lopped off the most value from wheat and lean hogsThe March HRW c...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.33/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.48/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.895/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $3.5 from yest...
Imports of Mexican Cattle Temporarily Suspended
A week ago today, on 22 November, the Chief Veterinary Officer of Mexico notified the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of a positive detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. The NWS was found in a cow in the southern Mexico state of Chiapas, at an inspection ch...
Mexico Corn Market Update
Mexico has been in the commodity news a lot recently, first due to its surge in imports from the U.S. and, this week, due to Trump’s threatened tariffs against the country. Given the importance of the country for U.S. grain and other agricultural exports (not to mention imports) WPI offers the...
Market Commentary: Grains, Soyoil Sink in Pre-Holiday Trade; Soybeans, Cattle Strengthen
Pre-Thanksgiving trade is usually a light-volume, range-bound affair with few fireworks, but this year’s market action offered more interest than most. Corn futures indeed traded a tight range, but did so with surprisingly heavy volume that likely belies a rash of fund selling. Fund selling was...
Happy Thanksgiving
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 28 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 29 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.485/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.8875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $295.4/short ton, up $4 from yesterday...
USTR Nominee; Changing Eating Habits
USTR NomineeTariffs are President-Elect Trumps most repeated policy focus but his selection of the next U.S. Trade Representative came nearly last. At least Jamieson Greer is a somewhat known quantity. World Trade Online says, “Stakeholders see what they want to see in Greer as USTR.” Having se...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls, Soyoil Rallies on Trump Tariff Plans; Hogs Hit New Highs
News from Washington continued to be the primary driver of CBOT price action again on Tuesday, with most of the day’s action coming from plans for new import tariffs from President-elect Trump. The other news from Washington is the USDA APHIS’ ban on live cattle imports from Mexico, due to the...
Channeling Hamilton; Gastronationalism Gone Awry; Science Reverts to Nonpartisan; Black Friday Deals
Channeling HamiltonAlexander Hamilton, the first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, encouraged the Tariff Act of 1789, the Tariff Act of 1790, and the Tariff Act of 1792. He used tariffs to fund the government and protect domestic industries from British exports. President-elect Trump has pledged...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.58/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.835/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $4.5 from...
Energy Outlook
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its short-term energy outlook (STEO) earlier this month, with outlooks for crude oil, natural gas, and propane. The price outlook is for lower crude prices, higher for natural gas, and flat for propane in the Midwest, and slightly lower...
Anchor on U.S. Agricultural Exports
The U.S. dollar was already at a two-year high when President-Elect Donald Trump announced he would impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico over drugs and immigration. The Canadian dollar was at a four year low against the dollar and fell further. The peso also fell and is now at its weakest in ove...