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The Checkered Use of Tariffs

President Donald Trump, a self-declared “Tariff Man,” has made the threat and use of tariffs one of the chief operating mechanisms of his admin...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7475/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.07/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate toda...

U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not; Politicizing EFSA

U.S.-Brazil FTA, Not Newly-elected Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is a lean-right populist in the Donald Trump vein. This gives the two leaders a sense...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 February 2019 Domestic grain prices all increased except for a few that remained stable. However, the average milling wheat expo...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7875/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Market Trends A Tale of Two Years With the shutdown of the U.S. government over (at least temporarily), its official statistics are now available to the ge...

Market Commentary

Markets are focused on two things – the trade talks this week in Beijing and the threat of another partial U.S. government shutdown on Saturday. Toda...

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look

If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. ...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAS/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Cairo3a Poultry, a major company in grain trading and poultry production with other intere...

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Soy Sector

Brazil Soy Crop Keeps Declining The size of the Brazilian soybean crop seems to decline with each passing week. Most estimates by government and private an...

Friday Deadline Looms for Budget and Border Deal

The Sunday political talk shows painted a dim picture of the ongoing budget discussions between Congress and the administration. Appearing on one of them,...

Leverage Causes Angst

Difficult negotiations go to the brink for a reason, and that dynamic is being revealed on numerous fronts. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting...

Still Too Much Uncertainty

The series of important and delayed USDA reports that were released last Friday did take some of the uncertainty away from the markets. The problem, though...

Market Commentary

Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to t...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Update The market was very quiet last week in Brazil, and movement was focused in the U.S. with the Chinese government purchasing another 5...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Russia’s domestic market was about 200 rubles ($3)/MT higher. Its exports are...

House Ag Committee Agenda

The House Agriculture Committee met yesterday for its organizational meeting. Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minnesota) laid out its agenda for the 116th Cong...

Mixed USMCA Signals; Rotten Tomatoes

Mixed USMCA Signals Congressional Democrats are signaling both positively and negatively on the prospects for approval of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement...

Market Commentary

Markets were generally better overnight and this morning following Thursday’s pre-USDA report sell-off. Yesterday’s losses were primarily the r...

USDA Reports Simply More of the Same

All had been hoping that the long-awaited USDA reports released today (originally scheduled for publication on 11 January) would reveal new insight, create...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7425/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nb...

WASDE Soyoil

According to USDA: U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is estimated at 134.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from the previous report.  Smaller soybean...

WASDE Soymeal

According to USDA: The soybean crush forecast is raised 10 million bushels to 2,090 million.  Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush...

WASDE Soybeans

According to USDA: Soybean production is estimated at 4,544 million bushels, down 56 million.  Harvested area is estimated at 88.1 million acres, down...

WASDE Corn

According to USDA: U.S. corn production is estimated at 14.420 billion bushels, down 206 million on reduction in yield to 176.4 bushels per acre. Harvested...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 201...

WASDE Wheat

According to USDA: Projected 2018/19 wheat ending stocks are raised 36 million bushels on reduced feed and residual use and lower seed use.  Feed and...

Market Commentary

After doing next to nothing for the first three trading days this week while awaiting tomorrow’s USDA reports, traders finally made a move today, and...

Summary of Prices

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.765/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1325/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close.&...

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; Bayer Rapeseed; U.S. Biodiesel; Indian Protein

U.S. Soy Export Sales Update USDA announced yesterday that exporters had sold an additional 586,000 MT of soybeans to China with all but 63,000 MT to be sh...

Uneven Distribution; Pain Ahead

Uneven Distribution U.S. Farm Belt bankruptcies have reportedly reached a 10-year high as banks show their displeasure with producer balance sheets hammere...

Questions and Comments

Having been without significant scheduled data from USDA since 11 December because of the “lapse of funding” (as USDA politely puts it), it is...

Export Sales

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period December 21-27, 2018. Wheat:  Net sales of 593,000 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 15...

Market Commentary

Agriculture played only a minor role in President Trump’s State of the Union speech last night. He cited the ongoing negotiations with China as an ex...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 28 January-1 February 2019 Domestic grain prices continued to increase with the exception of a few that remained steady. The slower...

Fruitless Wait for Trump

In a classic article covering viewpoints from various European officials toward U.S. President Donald Trump, Washington Post reporters Dan Balz and Griff W...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Cultural The Year of the Pig is Here This week was the kickoff of China’s largest and longest national holiday of the year, the Spring Festival (also...

Market Commentary

Events have conspired to make the reports being released 8 February among the most anticipated in quite some time. The fact that all of them, except the Fe...

The Brazilian Real and U.S. Monetary Policy

The Fed did not raise the federal funds rate at its January meeting. Instead, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell said the Federal Open Market Com...

Musings about Chinese Trade

This morning USDA announced a sale of 2.603 MMT of soybeans to China for 2018/19, part of the second tranche of 5 MMT that Chinese Vice-Premier Liu promise...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8075/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s fertile Nile Delta is reportedly suffering from lower water levels in the Nile River, the...

Two-Front Trade War; Shutdown and Who in 2020

Two-Front Trade War President Trump is likely to highlight trade in his State of the Union address on Tuesday evening. He needs Congress to pass his USMCA,...

Brazil’s Shrinking Soybean Crop

Temperatures across most of Brazil’s major production regions soared late last week into the upper 90s°F. The producer there referenced in the 28...

EPA Focus on RFS Rules

With the federal government now fully reopened (at least until 15 February) and the EPA likely to soon have a full-time administrator (the Senate Environme...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn market calmed down last week after seeing big movement the previous week. The main reason that only March shipments are moving...

Market Commentary

The grain and oilseed markets were quiet overnight and again today. Volume was light in corn and soybeans but better than average in wheat. The markets wil...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7925/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2575/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea FOB market remained about unchanged last week, while the domestic market in Russia was reportedly $2-4 higher. Weather conditio...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&nb...

President Soybean; Unjolly Roger; Worse Sectors than Agriculture

President Soybean Chinese and European leaders know where President Donald Trump’s soft spot resides, and it is soybeans. During bilateral trade nego...

Market Commentary

Agricultural and equity markets were all about China trade deal optimism today. President Trump was very busy tweeting very positive news about the situati...

The Only Thing Worse than No News is Old News

Markets have been struggling since the partial government shutdown started due to the lack of any fundamental news that is typically gathered/released by U...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Poultry Sector Suffering Severe Losses; Imported Chicken Cheaper As a follow-up to the issue of rising feed prices that was discussed in the 11 January rep...

Market Commentary

Please note: Late word from the White House meeting between the Chinese trade delegation and President Trump indicates that delegation leader Vice-Premier...

Owning the Deal; Contrasted India Approach; Twain Won’t Meet

Owning the Deal In usual trade negotiations, a U.S. president’s subordinates negotiate, and when there is agreement, it is brought to the leader for...

Extreme Weather Impact; Market Data

Extreme Weather Impact The polar vortex and extreme cold conditions have settled across much of the livestock, poultry and dairy producing regions of the U...

Balls in the Air

Grain and soy futures markets are currently juggling a number of important “balls in the air.” One might say this is always true, and it is. Ou...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.765/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.&...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 526,300 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 68 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.&nb...

Market Commentary

The government shutdown and suspension of USDA/FAS export sales reports occurred at a time when U.S. corn and wheat export prices were becoming increasingl...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 21-25 January 2019 Most domestic grain prices continued to grow as demand increased. Milling wheat prices also rose because processo...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. ...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Stocks Higher on Fed News, Commodities Shrug

The CBOT reversed yesterday’s move lower with some buying support being uncovered today. Today’s higher close was somewhat unconvincing, howeve...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Reduced U.S. Imports and ASF Push Crushers to Cut Activity The temporary lull in the trade war has done little to restore U.S.-China soybean trade...

Market Commentary

Note: The CFTC will resume its Commitment of Traders (COT) reports this Friday with release of the 28 December report. Thereafter, it will issue reports ch...

Big Picture Economics; State of the Onion

Big Picture Economics The trade war started by President Trump does not deserve all the blame, although it certainly has not helped the world economy. Howe...

USDA Reports and Chinese Pork Demand

Now that USDA has reopened, its reports will resume. The next WASDE report on 8 February will likely include information that would have been contained in...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1325/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&...

Corn versus Soybeans in Uncertain Times

In just a few days, the calendar will turn to February. This is the time when U.S. row crop farmers begin to get serious about spring planting intentions...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Commercial Buying, Fund Selling Leaves Market Lower

Lack of fundamental news, except better weather for Brazil, left the CBOT to head lower in lackluster trading. Fund selling was notable, especially in whea...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s GASC has announced that future wheat tenders will be paid by letters of credit on sight t...

Forest for Trees; End of EU Ag; Elitist Lifestyle Prescriptions

Forest for the Trees Malaysia is threatening to block imports from the EU due to Brussels’ decision to restrict palm oil’s eligibility under th...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7975/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The soybean market came alive again last week, which was more than welcome after several slow months. Chinese firms were buying some positi...

Smile! Corn, Wheat Bullish; Cattle and Soybean Outlook Mixed

Options traders remain neutral/bullish corn while retaining their decidedly bullish sentiments about wheat. Soybeans’ options IV curve retains its ne...

Market Commentary

Many were hopeful that last Friday’s actions to reopen the U.S. government plus some optimism that this week’s meeting with China will go well...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The partial U.S. government shutdown has come to a temporary end. The country might find itself in the same situation again in just three weeks if Congress...

Ethanol Outlook

For the first three weeks of 2019, ethanol production dropped to 1.027 million barrels/day from 1.046 million barrels/day for Q4 2018 and was well below ye...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was very firm last week. Domestic prices in Russia were reported to be $5-8 higher/MT than the previous week. There were...

USG – Next Steps; Trump’s Art is Variable; Science Winning

USG – Next Steps President Trump blinked in the face of a record-long government shutdown, and it is for the better. As we noted more than a week ago...

Market Commentary

Markets didn’t do very much overnight in light volume. Corn and soybean futures were a penny higher with wheat down 1-2 cents. Markets then opened th...

Government Shutdown Update

Based on optimism that the partial shutdown of the U.S. government might be nearing an end, U.S. financial markets were strong in pre-market trade and open...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8025/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of su...

Market Commentary

CME grain and soy futures struggled to find volume and price direction amid the continued lack of inputs from USDA and with little else to lead them. Tradi...

Nutrition Guidelines; State Meat Labeling

Canadian Nutrition Guidelines and the DGA In the U.S., USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are responsible for the update of the Die...

Upstaging Agriculture; Future of Ag

Upstaging Agriculture Just as the Trump administration has a unique penchant for bilateral trade agreements, believing they provide the U.S. with greater l...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.77/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.215/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Guessing Games

With fresh USDA data on crop production, quarterly stocks, winter wheat acreage, export sales and changes to supply/demand analyses all suspended by the go...

Market Commentary

It is always difficult to trade grain and soy futures based on politics and political rhetoric, and this truism is proving itself once again. Markets were...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 January 2019 All domestic grain increased in both RUB and USD expression. The average milling wheat export price rose $3/MT to...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomic Trends China’s Economic Slowdown Hits Food and Agricultural Sectors After increases in the cost of food exceeded 3 percent during Septe...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7875/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Feeder Cattle Turnaround with Wheat and Soy Higher

The CBOT was higher in moderate volume trading today with the soy complex finding fundamental support from a few sources and wheat managing to move higher...

Market Commentary

It is now well into the second month of the partial government shutdown, and the blackout of the usual information from USDA continues. The only regular re...

China and the U.S. Soybean Market

A high-level Chinese delegation is due to arrive in Washington, DC next week to engage in trade dispute negotiations that are scheduled to begin on 31 Janu...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Higher Open Bleeds Into Lower Close

The CBOT was volatile (relative to recent history, at least) today, with futures stronger at the open amid hopes of progress from U.S.-Sino trade talks. Ru...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Last Thursday Egypt reopened the five ports that had been closed the previous Sunday because of weather...

Martin Luther King Day

Monday, 21 January is a U.S. holiday. The markets and World Perspectives, Inc. are closed that day. Please note that the next issue of Ag Perspectives...

Trade Policy Wowzas; Weighing Risks; Monopoly Hunters

Trade Policy Wowzas It is a long weekend for the commodity futures market, and policymakers have left a bevy of developments to think about, including the...

House Ag Committee Majority Members

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) has announced the new Democratic members of the House Agriculture Committee (see below). First, though, there was...

U.S. Corn Ending Supplies Will Be Smaller

As said every year at this time when we take a very preliminary look at the corn outlook for the coming marketing year, it will be all about yield. The U.S...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  M...

Market Commentary

Markets had some follow-through overnight from yesterday’s good gains. Wheat and soybeans were up 3-4 cents with corn fractionally higher. None of th...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses an...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices were mildly firmer overnight, based mostly on forecasts that the adverse South American weather conditions would persist at least thro...

Missing Reports; Climate and Cattle; Happy Chicken Wing Day

Cattle on Feed Report is MIA USDA’s Cattle on Feed (COF) report is normally released on the third Friday of each month. The inventory data is for the...

South American Soybeans and Weather

In these days of the USDA blackout, the soybean market is left to focus on the prospects from U.S. China trade negotiations and South American weather. Of...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  M...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: CBOT Starts Slow, Scrambles to Exciting Finish

Morning price action at the CBOT was firm but mostly boring. That all changed around midday, however, as rumors of export sales, combined with headlines th...

Market Commentary

The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) w...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8-11 January 2019 All domestic grain prices (except for milling rye) rose in RUB expression, but the growth in USD expression was si...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.74/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Hogs Crash and Burn, Cattle Rally

CBOT prices were higher today after yesterday’s selloff. There was little fundamental reason for the move, except that traders must have sold what th...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Sharp Correction in Soymeal Inventory With China’s soybean imports down sharply last month versus December 2017, the nationwide estimated so...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets tried to generate a “Turnaround Tuesday” during the overnight session but struggled to hold on to minor gains. This diffi...

EPA Administrator Confirmation Hearing and Biofuel Outlook

The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW) will hold a confirmation hearing tomorrow for Andrew Wheeler, nominated last week by President Trum...

Brainstorming without USDA

It takes something like the current partial shutdown of the U.S. government to make those involved with agricultural markets realize how much we depend on...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.11/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Corn Breaks Important Technical Mark

Corn and soybeans plunged today on news from USTR Lighthizer that the U.S. and China made little progress on trade talks. The market had previously been en...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Bad weather in Egypt has closed four ports on the Red Sea and two on the Mediterranean. Very strong win...

Manipulated Eats; Manipulated Trade Debate

Manipulated Eats The year ahead will be packed with various campaigns trying to change the human food consumption pattern. They will be funded by environme...

House Ag Committee Changes Not Yet Settled

The new House Democratic majority is in the process of making committee assignments, and the new chairmen are outlining their panels’ agendas. Howeve...

Market Commentary

Wheat and soybean futures were lower overnight, and they stuck to that pattern through the day with soybeans opening with steeper losses. Meanwhile, corn w...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1425/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&n...

Bearish Soybean Outlook for MY 2019/20

.S. soybean supplies at the end of MY 2019/20 could exceed a record 1 billion bushels. However, the following factors could change that outlook: A steep r...

Smile! Options Market Reflects Bullish Corn Sentiment

Today’s trading in corn futures and options reflects the increasingly bullish sentiments held by traders. Similarly, despite wheat futures’ rec...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The soybean market remains slow. With China very quiet and Brazil currently cheaper than U.S. Gulf, basis continues to fall. The only movem...

What’s Working and What Isn’t at USDA

The federal government shutdown is now in day 21, matching the record set in 1995-1996 when the House in the 104th Congress was controlled by Republicans a...

Dark, Happy Winter Thoughts

The U.S. government is headed into a record-long shutdown with no end in sight. Americans are fractured politically. There is even talk of civil war on soc...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary

Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexp...

Lower U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks Again in 2019/20

One of the major USDA reports that were supposed to be issued today was the U.S. winter wheat planting estimate. WPI’s own estimate that was discusse...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pest-Damaged Crop and No Imports Driving Corn Prices After the spot market price of corn in India touched $255/MT in early December 2018, the end user indu...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the...

Animal Disease; Animal Welfare Preemption; Cell-Cultured Meat

Animal Disease It’s back! After the hog market was disrupted in 2014/15 by the spread of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv), a new case has been...

Bullish Markets Until ……?

Grain and soy futures markets were mostly mired in a pit of bearish mud for the last half of 2018. Years of big U.S. and world crops had resulted in a...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7625/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Lack of Chinese Details Pressures Markets

Sharp selling emerged at the CBOT today in response to weaker overnight prices. Cash prices for soybeans and corn have weakened in response to farmer selli...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-...

Agriculture’s Unique Pedestal; Globalization’s Future

Agriculture’s Unique Pedestal It comes with downsides, but U.S. agriculture continues to be highlighted in a manner that would have been unheard of a...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.82/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Shorts Reverse Course

Yesterday’s price pressure and commensurate rise in open interest suggested a fair number of new short positions were initiated. Today, however, posi...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Please note that today’s report is abbreviated because of the holidays.   Kazakhstan: 11.5 MMT of Grain Transported by Kazakhstan Temir Zholy in...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reaches 20-Week High With market data limited last week due to the New Year holiday, there was a lag in reporting. During the tw...

Market Commentary

For now, grain and soy markets are mainly about the ongoing trade talks with China, its purchases of soybeans and possibly grain, and South American weathe...

Sino-American Mirage; Eye for an Eye; Product Confusion

Sino-American Mirage (Shèn jĭng) The reports out of Beijing are that U.S. and Chinese negotiators have made great progress in their trade talks, eno...

Flying Blind

As the partial U.S. government shutdown has moved into its third week with no end in sight, the nation’s press is increasingly focused on the ripple...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: China Buying Rumors Don't Impress

The Closing Bell Wrap-Up is back after a few weeks’ hiatus working on a few special projects for WPI. Since this article was last written, the grain...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EASTMEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria reports that four vessels carrying 80,000 MT of Russian wheat have arrived at its Tartous and Lata...

USG Shutdown Forecast; Wall Signals USMCA; Whether the Weather

USG Shutdown Forecast Historical: The partial shutdown of U.S. government (USG) services that began 16 days ago must last until 13 January to beat the 21-d...

The Old-Fashioned Way

The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, and there appears to be no end in sight yet. This has affected nearly all of USDA’s reportin...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet again overnight, although soybean futures showed some life early this morning and closed the night session a nickel higher with corn ste...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8225/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1675/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview Last week the Chinese Federal Reserve (Sinograin) again bought several vessels of U.S. soybeans, reportedly 1.2-1.5 MMT. Most purc...

Smile! Options Market Neutral Soybeans Despite “Cheap” Calls

Despite futures’ range-bound trading through December and into January, corn options remain positioned bullishly with futures above technical resista...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. The holiday period in Russia and Ukraine will continue until the end of this week. R...

Confusion Reigns

USDA’s WASDE report will not be released on the regularly scheduled date of 11 January as the Office of the Chief Economist has indicated that it tak...

U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Steady

Most analysts were expecting U.S. winter wheat farmers to increase planted acres this past fall. Moisture conditions across the southern plains were very g...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.83/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.17/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. ...

Plurilaterals for NTBs; Leaky Law; Big State Power

Plurilateral for NTBs Australia has launched an effort to address the nontariff trade barriers (NTBs) its exporters face. The Aussie beef industry says NTB...

Market Commentary

The partial government shutdown continues with little or no progress in talks between Democrats and Republicans. The USDA said next Friday’s importan...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports   India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through...

Broilers Win from ASF; Chipotle Likes Fat

Chinese Pork Situation and Trade Outlook  After the initial finding of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China in August, the disease has been found in thr...

Trade War End or Beginning; Industry Makeover

Trade War End or Beginning Some analysts are saying that the downward pressure on both the U.S. and Chinese economies will force a close to the trade war...

Soybean End-User Hedging Strategies

The probability is increasing for soybean prices to establish a long-term low during early 2019. End-users are encouraged to utilize any such price decline...

Market Commentary

USDA officials indicate that unless the closed parts of the government reopen tomorrow, 4 January, the 11 January reports including the WASDE will almost c...

Spotty Rains Help Brazil; Only China Knows Its Soybean Purchases

A substantial portion of Brazil’s soybean-growing areas have been very dry in recent weeks, though some areas got a minor respite last week. Unfortun...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7975/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1375/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. ...

Making a Market

The results of a recent WPI poll which asked respondents how bullish or bearish they are for grain and soy prices for 2019 were striking. Of the respondent...

Market Commentary

Traders began the first trading day of 2019 figuratively wearing the blindfold resulting from the lack of USDA information due to the partial government sh...

Phoney Trade War; Stop the Phony War on Biotech; False Plan for Africa

Phoney Trade War In September 1939, Hitler’s army imposed the infamous blitzkrieg attack on Poland and, with the complicity of the Soviet Union, the...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7575/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.0675/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Trade War and Weather Made Brazil China’s Main 2018 Source Recently released data from China’s Customs Bureau show how much China came...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets:  Most Russian grain and oilseed markets are quiet with many traders on holiday from 1-7 January. Consequently, that section of...

Happy New Year from WPI

The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and Happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forw...

2019 Will Be Different

Just kidding.  Commodity prices are still going to go up and down. Donald Trump will still be sowing his unique brand of volatility. U.S. House Democr...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.75/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.0325/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close.&n...

2018 in the Rearview Mirror

Grain and oilseed markets in 2018 were disappointing for producers, which, of course, means they were good for consumers because prices trended lower, at l...

Market Commentary

Happy New Year! Corn and wheat were steady overnight with soybeans 5-6 cents higher. The overnight soy complex optimism was the result of weekend twee...

Policy Potpourri

Congress is in extended recess and most agencies of the executive branch are shut down, which means the only real “policymaking” in Washington...

MERCOSUR Regional In-Country Analysis

Due to the New Year's holiday, the weekly MERCOSUR soybean market commetary will be delayed until next week (7 January 2018).   Grains It was a s...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was mostly unchanged last week on limited activity was due to the holiday season in Europe. The Russian domestic wheat m...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.755/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.115/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

Government Shutdown’s Ripple Effect on Trade Issues

One potential market-related impact of the current government shutdown could be on ag trade going into the New Year. Some issues such as import-export insp...

Market Commentary

Markets closed slightly higher in the Thursday night session on very light volume. They then opened firmer this morning with soybeans quickly jumping to ga...

Reassuring Thoughts

Human nature veers toward concern over the future, but facts are irrefutable. As noted by Steven Pinker in Enlightenment Now, everything in the world is ge...

Brazil’s Soybean Production Falling

The world has been happily assuming that Brazil will crush last year’s soybean production estimate in 2019. More acres were sown, and they were plant...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rapeseed-Mustard Prices Crash as Hopes of Exporting to China Vanish As relations between the U.S. and China thawed and a 90-day truce was called, all hopes...

Market Commentary

Today’s CME closing grain market board was very unusual in the array of tiny price changes compared with that of yesterday. MGEX wheat had the bigges...

ASF and Chinese Hog Feed; GIPSA Rule; Red Meat Record

ASF Found in Chinese Hog Feed China’s General Administration on Customs has discovered African swine fever (ASF) virus in swine feed. It was found sp...

2018 – What a Year!

Near the end of every year, we are bombarded with a wide variety of summaries and analyses explaining what occurred that was important, why it was importan...

The Disruption Game

Trump administration officials meet with their Chinese counterparts the week of 7 January to begin trade negotiations. No one should expect a quick or easy...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.745/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...

Excess Soymeal Driving Chinese Soy Crushers’ Poor Margins

Excess Soymeal Driving Chinse Soy Crushers’ Poor Margins While the U.S.-China trade war has caused losses for the U.S. soybean sector (among others)...

Market Commentary

The government remains partially closed and apparently will continue to be into 2019. President Trump is dug in over his demand for funding of the proposed...

Dour Trade Prognosis; The Pro-Trade Data; Hope versus Expectation

Dour Trade Prognosis Respondents to WPI’s last survey favored a resolution to the U.S.-China trade war in 2019 (see Hope versus Expectation below), b...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 December 2018 Domestic prices for milling and feed wheat as well as corn continued to rise in RUB expression but decrease in U...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends U.S. Agricultural Exports to China Down Nearly 50 Percent in 2018 U.S. agricultural exports to China during January-October were a paltry 14.5...

Market Commentary

Markets finished the Sunday night session with corn and soybeans down 3 cents, while wheat markets were mostly steady. They opened almost exactly at those...

Government Shutdown Threatens USDA Reports

Market participation and trading volume are both usually light over the Christmas holiday, and that should also be the case though the New Year. Meaningful...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview Last week (the last full trading week of 2018) showed good movement of soybean vessels around the world. China’s state reser...

Bag of Coal for Christmas

U.S. stocks are nearing a bear market, and there is nothing ahead to give that much hope. The trade war between the U.S. and China will continue to weigh h...

GM Labeling Rule and Hemp Regulation Omissions

The adage that “the devil is in the details” has been borne out twice in the past week. These instances involved USDA’s new GM labeling r...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week. Russia’s domestic prices were $2-6/MT higher in different regions. Meanwhile, it has exporte...

Spending Bill and Biodiesel Tax Credit in Limbo

It’s been a tumultuous week on Capitol Hill. Congress faces a deadline of midnight tonight to fund the rest of the government and thereby prevent a p...

2018: Hot or Not; 2019 Senate Focus; China’s Curious Pain

2018: Hot or Not Where one spends precious time is important to both the individual and those wanting some of that person’s time. A review of the rea...

Market Commentary

Markets ended the Thursday evening session with wheat down 6 cents, corn up a penny and soybeans steady. Volume was light and continued that way in today&r...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.14/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...

U.S. Soybean Farmers Get a Christmas Present

In response to lost soybean export sales to China because of the trade dispute, President Trump and USDA announced in August that farmers would be paid abo...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India’s Corn Prices Too High; End Users Want Imports The Indian poultry, dairy, feed and starch sectors’s corn consumption has grown 1.1 MMT si...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures traded modestly higher overnight following yesterday’s weakness, although trading volume was in a holiday mode. The market was...

Article 1 versus 2; Whale of a Deal; European Breakaways

Article I versus 2 The Congress, as enumerated in Article 1 of the American Constitution, holds more powers than the Executive Branch as outlined in Articl...

Cattle on Feed; Hogs and Pigs

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed and quarterly Hogs and Pigs reports today after the markets closed, a day early given the coming holiday schedule...

Tight 2018/19 EU Grain Outlook

Grain market chatter has tended toward things like the big U.S. crops, prospects for large South American crops, tightening world wheat and corn stocks but...

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Growth in Soymeal Demand

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated a total 1,561,000 MT of soybeans were sold to China last week. USDA als...

Cattle on Feed

• Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million h...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7525/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.235/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. ...

Ag Review - December 2018

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. grain and soybean sectors, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for...

Export Sales

Wheat: Net sales of 313,600 metric tons for 2018/2019 were down 58 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Corn:...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices were mixed overnight, having traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. As the early morning trading recess approached, wheat pri...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 December 2018 Domestic grain prices grew except for the decreases in a few regions for corn. The average milling wheat export...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8175/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Has Minor Uptick Last week China’s soymeal inventories continued the same divergent and varied trends at the regional leve...

Market Commentary

The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fa...

Straws in the Wind

With the Christmas and New Year holidays looming, this is the last full week for trading of grain and soy futures markets in 2018. Following early closures...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.855/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.3275/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Ag Commodities Shrug while Crude Oil is Hammered

Corn and soybean futures were higher while wheat market dropped lower in unenthusiastic trade. Wheat has a bullish technical story, however, and could see...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco has reportedly reduced the import tariff on grains from Russia to zero, although it has not bee...

Insane Consumption Growth

World crop production slipped in 2018 from the record levels reached in the previous five years, which masked the fact that world consumption also set reco...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.84/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Market Commentary

Wheat, corn and soybean markets started higher Sunday night, and they held those small gains throughout the entire session. The relatively light volume the...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The soybeans market was surprised last week when the U.S. government announced that 1.4 MMT of soybeans had been sold to China. Th...

Smile! Soybeans Neutral After China’s Return

Corn options traders remain bullish even after two weeks of sideways trading. While the market is likely to need fulfillment of the 3 December chart gap be...

Democrats Organizing for the 116th Congress

Organizing of the Democratic caucuses in the Senate and House is taking shape for the 116th Congress as the slates of committee chairmen for the House and...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firmer as stocks are decreasing. Russia has already exported 21 MMT since the start of the campaign, and those stocks...

Paying the Bill for the Farm Bill

The final conference report farm bill, which is now on the president’s desk awaiting signature, totals $428 billion for its 2019-2023 authorization p...

Market Commentary

Corn was higher with soybeans up slightly and wheat mixed in the Thursday night session. Trading volume was fairly strong overnight. This morning USDA anno...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8475/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.3/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...

U.S. Export Prospects Improving

USDA trimmed the U.S. wheat export forecast by 25 million bushels (680,000 MT) in the December WASDE (supply & demand), but that wasn’t a surpris...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 1...

Market Commentary

Overnight futures trade featured stronger wheat prices, lower soybean prices and corn near unchanged with only average volume. The soybean market seemed to...

Unveiling Good and Bad; Trump’s Effect?; The Shutdown Wolf

Unveiling Good and Bad Members of the European Parliament voted 427–172 to obligate the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) to publish all relevant...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Soybeans Lower on Chinese Buying

Smaller-than-expected Chinese soybean purchases (real purchases, nonetheless!) sent the soybean market lower this morning which pressured hog futures as we...

China and Soybeans

The Chinese are back! After days of rumors, USDA/ FAS confirmed China’s return to the U.S. soybean market by reporting its purchase of 1.13 MMT for 2...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...

Export Sales

• Wheat:  Net sales of 754,100 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior 4-week average. &...

Market Commentary

It is hard to keep track of the rumors flying around concerning Chinese plans to buy U.S. soybeans. Their most common thread has China buying 5-8 MMT, alth...

Tale of the Tail; USMCA Strategy; Up in Smoke; Delhi Dirt

Tale of Trade Restrictions’ Tail China came into the U.S. market today for soybeans, but American farmers now realize they need to diversify their ma...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 December 2018 Active demand drove domestic grain prices higher except for corn, which had a slight decline in the South. The ave...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Surprise! Soybeans Ignore Chinese Buying

The biggest news today was a report that Chinese state-owned enterprises purchased nearly 2 MMT of soybeans from the U.S. Early reports said 12 cargos (0.5...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8525/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.265/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. ...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Contracts Again with Modest Decrease Fluctuating demand at the regional level due to the varying impacts of African swine fever...

Market Commentary

It has been more than 10 days since the Trump-Xi meeting in Buenos Aires wherein, according to President Trump and others in attendance, China agreed to pu...

2018 Farm Bill: Signed and Released

The farm bill conference report was signed by the conferees last night and the text released. It is being touted as a “bipartisan” bill despite...

WASDE Soyoil

USDA notes the following: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2018/19 is forecast at 135.5 million tons, up slightly due to an increase for cottonseed...

WASDE Soymeal

USDA notes the following: Global 2018/19 oilseed production is forecast up 0.9 million tons to 600.5 million, with greater soybean production for Brazil an...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA notes the following about soybeans: Soybean supply and use projections for 2018/19 are unchanged from last month. With soybean exports and crush uncha...

Oilseed Highlights: China and U.S. Soybean Imports; WASDE and the Soy Sector

China Apparently Deciding How Many U.S. Soybean to Import At their meeting in Buenos Aires, President Trump was able to get a commitment from President Xi...

WASDE Corn

USDA notes the following about Coarse Grains: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced imports, and larger...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Cattle Turning Bullish, WASDE Bearish Grains

The December WASDE was unsurprisingly unsurprising. USDA literally changed nothing in the U.S. 2018/19 soybean balance sheet and made only modest adjustmen...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8475/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.21/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&nb...

The December WASDE

In truth, there is not much to analyze in USDA’s December WASDE. It contained no changes in estimated U.S. yields or corn and soybean production leve...

WASDE Wheat

USDA notes the following about wheat: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Whe...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Middle East/North Africa (MENA) buyers of Ukraine’s wheat and corn are very concerned about the s...

Lighthizer Prevails; Innovation/Hope in 2019

Lighthizer Prevails U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer is one of four prominent names mentioned to become the next White House chief of sta...

Farm Bill and Ethanol in Congress’s Closing Stretch

The final draft of the 2018 Farm Bill conference agreement is likely to be released tomorrow, and a final vote could take place as soon as Wednesday (12 De...

Politics Will Trump the USDA Report

USDA will release its December WASDE (supply and demand) estimates tomorrow for both the U.S. and the world. That wouldn’t be evident if only reading...

Smile! More Bullish Corn and Soybean Options

Following last week’s jump higher in corn, soybean, and wheat futures prices, the corn and soybean options markets continue to look for bullish price...

Market Commentary

It was a quiet Sunday night opening with markets all slightly lower. Trading volume was also average or less both last night and today. The only difference...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.84/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2525/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview Last week was another that featured weaker Brazilian basis pushing levels lower with each passing day. The Chinese are waiting for...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was slightly firmer last week on slower farmer selling. Domestic prices in Russia were about $1-2MT higher, and the expo...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.855/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.3125/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Immoderate Nutrition; Global Integration; Climate Recalculation

Immoderate Nutrition In 2010 the Obama administration sought to make the school lunch program comport with the government’s own nutrition guidelines...

Market Commentary

The extremely wild gyrations in U.S. equity markets are a good indication that no one knows where the U.S./China trade dispute is headed as well as a sign...

Thoughts from the Annual Caribbean Millers Association Meeting

Cheap Turkish flour, which has plagued much of the world for the last decade, has found its way into the Caribbean. Haiti has been targeted, and the p...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India Oil Meal Exports Up  Oil meal exports of 2.043 MMT for April-November were almost 10 percent higher versus 1.855 MMT for the same period last ye...

Export Sales

• Wheat:  Net sales of 711,800 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 89 percent from the previous week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average.&...

Market Commentary

The arrest in Vancouver, Canada of Meng Wanzhou, a high-ranking executive of giant Chinese cellular technology company Huawei, and her pending extradition...

Seeing a Rising Sun; WOTUS Rewrite; Kiwi COOL Fallacy

Seeing a Rising Sun U.S. business groups have submitted to the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) their wish list for a bilateral trade agreement with Japan...

Meat Exports and the Global Situation; December Domestic Market

Global Situation Tomorrow USDA will release its updated monthly trade data through October. A running tally of the value to date tells the story of the glo...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&n...

Exaggeration as Trade Policy

Every country in the world has a trade policy pertaining to whatever it imports or exports. The policy may be explicitly touted by its government or develo...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Wheat Ignores Bullish Story

Ag markets and the U.S. energy/equity complex were all lower today with a fresh round of geopolitical concerns and no further clarification on the U.S.-Chi...

Market Commentary

The overnight grain and soy futures session was quiet. Prices for soybeans, wheat and corn were a bit weaker with wheat being the softest. Basically, trade...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Federation blocking Kerch Strait: Impacts on Foreign Trade, Political and Economic Outlook After 10 days of Russian blockage of the Kerch Strait in...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Bullish Hogs and Cattle

Trading was muted today with U.S. equity markets and the Federal government closed in remembrance of former President George H. W. Bush. The CME’s ag...

China In-Country Analysis

Policy Developments Trump Administration’s Premature Celebration Following a two-hour dinner with President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit in Argentin...

Market Commentary

The U.S. government will be closed 5 December to honor the late George H.W. Bush, the 41st president of the United States. Release of the government’...

Trump’s Chicken Contradiction; Carbon Bias; Nigeria Dissected

Trump’s Chicken Contradiction The U.S. Supreme Court asked the Trump administration for its position on a lawsuit by 12 states challenging California...

A Look at the U.S.-Chinese “Agreement”

In terms of publicity, the biggest news coming out of the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires late last week had nothing to do with that gathering. Instead, it con...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8475/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Inverted Yield Curve and Trade

The yield curve on Treasury bonds inverted during overnight trading, the first time this has occurred since 2007. The spread between three-year and five-ye...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Trade Deal Skepticism

Excitement over the weekend’s meetings between Trump and Xi cooled off in most markets today. Ag commodities survived better than others (see U.S. eq...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Grain importers in the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region are concerned that Russia’s actions...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The market was basically at a standstill last week as traders awaited the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting. No one expected big cha...

Farm Income and Expenses Reflect Market and Economy

Amid the news of an agreement to restart China-U.S. trade talks, China’s undefined promise to buy more U.S. commodities and the anticipation as well...

China-U.S. Nothingburger; Gambling Everything

China-U.S. Nothingburger If the written agreement between the EU’s Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Trump in July offered U.S. agriculture very little,...

Market Commentary

The markets expected an explosive Sunday night market following the great news about the Saturday meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi that has led to a...

Smile! Trade War Sends Options into Bullish Position

As would be expected, the options market reacted to the weekend’s trade war news by increasing its bullish outlook for corn, soybeans, and wheat. The...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.82/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.2125/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. ...

Dessert Was Just Fine

It turns out that the Saturday night dinner in Argentina between Presidents Trump and Xi met or exceeded most expectations, although to what degree depends...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. The conflict in the Azov Sea did not significantly impact prices despite the loading...

Eat, Be Eaten or Die

Business and politics are not too different in that change is constant and adaptation is essential to survival. When commodity prices increase, the sector...

What a Week It Was!

There were many impactful (and potentially impactful) policy developments that unfolded this week. Biofuel Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) - The EPA rel...

Market Commentary

Soybeans and corn were all slightly higher overnight, led by 5-6 cent gains in soybeans. Markets opened stronger than that this morning and stayed that way...

Summary of Future

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7775/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1575/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...

Play It Again, Sam

All market analysis should probably be put on hold until sometime Saturday night after the tweets start to flow from Argentina following the serving of des...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn Prices Continue to Rise; Imports Required In the past 15 days, prices in the key corn production/consumption hubs have risen 6.7-9.6 percent and are 2...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices were mostly lower overnight, although not greatly so considering the general strength across the board yesterday. The day session was...

Cash-Settled Wheat Futures

As trading of agricultural crop futures contracts evolved in the 19th century at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), there were futures markets for wheat, c...

Strong Holiday Season Start; Japan Trade

Holiday Season Starts Strong With a pipeline full of protein, seasonal holiday demand started strong with Thanksgiving. As of 31 October, cold storage stoc...

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7325/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. ...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Soybeans Ignore G20 Meeting, Hogs Don't

Funds appeared to have covered what they want to of their short positions in the grains complex, which left corn, soybeans and wheat to drift lower into th...

Ag Review - November 2018

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, the U.S. soybean crushing complex, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlo...

Export Sales

USDA reports: Wheat: Net sales of 377,100 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 14 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week a...

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Sees Modest Decline Since the first full week of November, China’s nationwide soymeal inventory is up 25,500 MT as demand...

Market Commentary

Soy and soy product futures prices were mostly firmer overnight as the market built on yesterday’s turnaround rally. Corn and wheat prices stayed nea...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Recent Developments in Ukraine Approximately 5 percent of the total grain exported from Ukraine is shipped from Mariupol and Berdiansk seaports in the Azov...

Summary of Futures

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.605/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.115/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Ja...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Trade-War Soybeans

The Closing Bell Wrap-Up may look slightly different today since it is coming to you from 30,000 feet while traveling to Reno, NV for the California Cattle...

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s tough-talking rhetoric from President Trump, in which he said he planned to go ahead with additional tariffs on Chinese imports, was appa...

Trade War Calculations; Farm Bill Calculations; Trade Potpourri

Trade War Calculations The market remains uncertain about the potential outcome from this coming weekend’s meeting between the leaders of China and t...

The More Complicated than Recognized Climate Debate

The news last Friday was dominated by the administration’s National Climate Assessment, a congressionally-mandated document and the fourth of its kin...

Soybean Fundamentals

It is G-20 week in Buenos Aires, and the highly-anticipated side meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi slated for 30 November is ce...

Summary of Futures

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.565/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. ...

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Wheat Ignores Russia, Summer Cattle Bullish

The Closing Bell Wrap-Up is back from vacation, though it was actually a two-week period of focusing on WPI’s product lines and looking to the future...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Iran’s SLAL did not buy any barley in its 200,000 MT tender last week. While some say that financ...

Issues to Watch

The Senate is back in session today, and the House returns tomorrow. Congress will deal with unfinished legislative matters, but the administration also ha...

U.S. Exports Bleak for Wheat and Soybeans but Awesome for Corn

The wheat market can’t break out of its narrow trading range of three months despite some positive world wheat fundamentals. The problem is that the...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The soybean market remains very slow and almost at a standstill. China has been quiet these past few weeks, possibly even slower l...

Summary of Futures

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.56/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.14/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. ...

Smile! Corn and Wheat Increasingly Bullish

January SRW wheat and March corn options are pointing to increasingly bullish times ahead while soybean options traders move their chips to the bearish sid...

Market Commentary

Markets opened Sunday evening with wheat 3-4 cents higher, corn up a penny and soybeans a penny lower. Overnight volume was much better than last week. Mar...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was slightly weaker last week. While Russia’s wheat stocks were reported to be 25 percent lower than on the same d...

Fake Solutions; Food Notes; Market versus Policy

Fake Solutions The EU’s 2017 report on intellectual property rights and customs enforcement finds that food products comprised nearly a quarter of th...

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 330,400 metric tons for 2018/2019 were down 25 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. ...

High Octane Legislative Proposal

A pair of Republican lawmakers in the House of Representatives used the day before Thanksgiving to release a new proposal for Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)...

Summary of Futures

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.59/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The Thanksgiving holiday week closed with a day of very light trading volume and little interest in the markets. Following are a few news items from this w...

Market Commentary

Trading volume in all markets was extremely light today, which is not surprising as it was a holiday-shortened session. This is also Black Friday, and ther...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sensitive Sugar Situation in India India has so far contracted to export approximately 1 MMT of sugar against the government’s fixed target of 5 MMT...

Happy Thanksgiving

There will be no Ag Perspectives report on Thursday (22 November) in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. WPI wishes all a wonderfu...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 November 2018 Prices on the domestic market moved in different directions. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price d...

Market Commentary

U.S. trading offices were likely only half-staffed today and possibly less than that. It is always tempting to expand a Thursday holiday into a Wednesday-S...

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