Reading Trump, Again The Trump administration’s announcement of a Section 232 investigation into automobile imports as a national security threat onl...
Articles
Market Commentary
The general grain and soy rally surged ahead overnight with soybeans and wheat reaching double-digit gains, while more timid corn futures managed to climb...
Cattle on Feed
USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 May to...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Export Taxes; China’s Soy Purchases…
Argentina May Freeze Soy Export Tax Rates Argentine Finance Minister Nicolas Dujovne has proposed freezing export tax rates for soybeans and soymeal/soyoil...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains and oilseeds started the morning sharply higher on weather worries and the improved trade outlook. As the day progressed, however, President Trump&r...
Ag Review - May 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook f...
Ag Trade Crossroads
It can be argued that the most immediate impact on prices for major U.S. agricultural crops and products that the government can cause comes from actions a...
Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Clobbering Europe; Technology Downfall
Clobbering Europe EU Trade Minister Cecilia Malmström correctly expressed doubts that the latest offer to the Trump administration for avoiding its st...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded both narrowly and slightly lower overnight in diminished volume. A flurry of sometimes contradictory statements from administr...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 May 2018 Domestic grain prices on the Russian market mainly increased for last season’s production in all regions except...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
It was a day of green at the CBOT/CME, with grains, oilseeds, and livestock contracts all rising. Trade resolutions (tentative though they may be) added to...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Again as Crushing Output Drops Because of declining downstream demand, domestic crushers cut utilization rates to below 50...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s active trade-driven session saw the huge unwinding of long soybean—short corn/wheat spreads, thanks to the agreement to suspend thr...
More Massive, Meaningful; NAFTA Reality; Farm Bill Deal
More Massive, Meaningful There are still problems interpreting the meaning of the China-U.S. trade truce announced this past weekend as well as questions o...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Oilseed Highlights: Global Soybean Demand Growth; South American and Ukrainian Crop Forecasts
Global Soybean Demand Continues to Outpace Demand for Other Major Crops USDA’s forecasts for global demand in 2018/19 indicate growth in that for soy...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Weather support and trade optimism boosted the grains markets today. The spread unwinding that hammered the wheat market yesterday was done, allowing the c...
Fed’s Next Move
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be meeting again in June, and the markets are expecting a federal fund rate hike to 2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Ramadan, the month of fasting, started last week in the region’s Muslim countries. It continues u...
Wheat’s Story
We often talk about the stories that are told to grain and soy futures markets (and those who trade in them) by the underlying crop that each represents. E...
Immodest Measurements; Debtor Impacts; Confess the Data
Immodest Measurements The China-U.S. truce and concentrated effort at achieving a trade agreement has brought optimism, but it should be a limited amount...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian soybean market fell steadily last week as the depreciating Brazilian real pressured prices. The currency reached 3.8 reals/US...
The Importance of Sorghum
China removed the import duties on U.S. sorghum last week, and that gave the corn market a real lift. It has been importing U.S. sorghum since the flap ove...
Market Commentary
Markets opened strong last night, and the soybean market extended that strength into big gains today. The story was the unexpectedly good news that the U.S...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Senate Farm Bill Outlook
Now that the farm bill failed in a vote on the House floor, all eyes are on the Senate as a chance to regain some momentum. Senate Agriculture Committee Ch...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The cash market in the Black Sea remained about unchanged despite the U.S. and EU futures markets’ sharp rally. Crop conditions in Russ...
CBOT Gains on “Massive” Trade News
Good morning! CBOT ag products are sharply higher after President Trump’s morning tweet that China pledged to buy “massive amounts” of U...
2018 Farm Bill Falls for the First Time
The House leadership tried to power through final consideration of the farm bill today, but it failed due to a left-right coalition of all Democratic membe...
Farm Bill Hurdle; China-U.S. Trade Solutions; Stick a Fork in It
Farm Bill Hurdle As predicted by WPI early this week (see here), the farm bill was voted down in the House today (198 213). Despite its failure, surprises...
Market Commentary
News overnight that China had dropped the import tariffs on U.S. sorghum ignited a nice rally in the corn market, which carried over to this morning and he...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Sugar Production Keeping Prices Low India’s sugar production could reach 31.5 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association (IS...
Weather Check!
The National Weather Service issues its updated long-term weather forecasts once each month. Obviously, the May and June updates are important because they...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were firmer overnight with wheat the leader. Winter and spring wheat futures traders seemed inspired by wheat’s ability to avoi...
EU Companies on Firing Line; GSP Leveraging Thailand
EU Companies on Firing Line EU members agreed yesterday to stand up to Donald Trump by invoking a 1996 statute that would prevent European companies from a...
Farm Bill Livestock Amendments; Unsettled Trade Deals Hit Broilers
Yesterday (16 May) the House passed the rule governing the floor debate on the farm bill by a vote of 229-185. Also covered under this rule are the Protect...
U.S. Soybeans and China
Everyone involved in the production, marketing, processing, exporting and consumption of soybean products around the world is waiting for news about the U...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Dry weather across Australia and Canada continues to support wheat prices while uncertainty about NAFTA/U.S.-China trade terms pulled corn and soybeans low...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales and Shipments; Argentine Soy Quality
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed those sales for the week ending 10 May were lower for soybeans and soyoil but muc...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Market Commentary
The lack of any news from the U.S./Chinese trade meeting was disconcerting. Mostly as a result of this, soybeans were unable to build on Tuesday’s la...
Bombs Beat Beans; The Trump Package; Organic Subterfuge
Bombs Beat Beans During the 1980s as the Cold War raged on, the Defense Department opined in the interagency process that U.S. agriculture’s attacks...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 May 2018 Rising minimal prices on the domestic market, driven in part by high demand from processors and growing prices for pro...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Trade uncertainties continued to weigh on corn and soybeans while weak cash prices pull cattle futures lower. The news today is the lack of news from the o...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Declines Following Month-Long Surge After four consecutive weeks of steady increases, the nationwide estimated soymeal inventory...
Market Commentary
It was an erratic and somewhat volatile day of trade for grain and soy futures. Financial markets also experienced an uptick in volatility, and this may ha...
Busy Week for Agriculture
This is a busy week for the agricultural policy world. The administration is engaged in trade negotiations with China as well as NAFTA partners Mexico and...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distill...
False: Equivalence; Economies; Hopes; Fears
False Equivalence In asserting its right to be treated like a market economy, China claimed in Geneva this week that its industrial subsidies are no differ...
Oilseed Highlights: Questions about USDA’s WASDE Report for Soy; NOPA Crush Report
Questions about USDA’s WASDE Forecasts for Soybean Sector in 2018/19 Several of USDA’s 2018/19 forecasts for the U.S. and global soybean sector...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grain markets are still searching for long-term direction while the livestock markets have found theirs: down. A combination of large supplies and seasonal...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Corn buyers in the Middle East/Africa (MEA) region are said to be benefiting from the low-cost U.S. sor...
Mixed Signals for Markets
Grain and soy markets trade on changing perceptions about inside (fundamental) and outside (macro) inputs, and seldom (if ever) do they all line up to push...
A Glimmer of Hope for Prices
Most analysts considered last week’s USDA reports to be at least somewhat positive for prices. Ending stocks of wheat, corn and soybeans are now proj...
U.S.-China Transaction; Industrial Policy; Farm Bill Calamity; Pollan on LSD
U.S.-China Transaction U.S. President Donald Trump is offering to resurrect Chinese smartphone maker ZTE in exchange for improved market access by American...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were lower overnight with soybeans and soymeal trading higher, and that pattern didn’t change today. Soybean futures were very...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Soybean prices here continue to fall, especially for nearby positions, as the Chinese are well covered for May/June/July shipments. The lac...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is slightly weaker than last week. The weather in Ukraine and southern Russia may not be as good as a year ago, but a la...
Farm Programs and Crop Insurance Are Amendment Targets
The House Rules Committee has scheduled a hearing on Tuesday to set the general parameters of debate regarding the lower chamber’s farm bill and anot...
Farm Bill on Docket for Next Week
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway (R-Texas) has floor time scheduled for the farm bill next week. A quick WPI canvass of Hill staff and...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Some Cautionary Comments on the May WASDE
USDA’s May WASDE (supply/demand) contained more positive news in terms of price potential for MY 2018/19 than there has been over the past several ye...
Closing Futures Prices
Note: Starting 14 May, the tables currently displayed in “Closing Futures Prices” will instead appear in Market Commentary. WPI provides a summ...
Market Commentary
Markets were all running for cover last night and today following what was considered a disappointing response to yesterday’s USDA reports. They actu...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India’s Vegetable Oil Demand and Imports Both Higher in 2017/18 India’s overall vegetable oil imports reached 15.573 MMT for 2017/18 (March-Apr...
Long War; FB (Mis)Calculations
Long War At this week’s general session of the WTO, Dennis Shea, USTR’s chief of mission in Geneva, expressed incredulity that China would spin...
Market Commentary
Trading during the overnight session was quiet with moderate volume ahead of this morning’s WASDE with its projections for 2018/19. Prices were gener...
First Ever CN; KL Opportunity
First Ever CN The Trump administration is showing that it plans to be aggressive on trade in unique ways. Previous administrations have imposed tariffs on...
Pork: The Exportable Meat
The current trade dispute with China has been the only trade topic big enough to overshadow the state of the NAFTA renegotiations, and both are nearing cri...
Export Sales
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
The May WASDE
Changes to U.S. 2017/18 supply/demand balances were small. The estimated U.S. wheat carryout was raised a net 6 million bushels. Exports were lowered 15 mi...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up WASDE Edition
The May WASDE brought the market its typical volatility with corn trading both green and red numbers while soybeans jumped higher only to be brought lower...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
WASDE Soyoil
Global vegetable oil consumption is projected at 198.6 million tons, up 7.1 million led by increases for China, India, and Indonesia. Soybean oil productio...
WASDE Soy Highlights; Soy Export Sales
May WASDE Soy Highlights Today USDA released its May WASDE report, which includes its first forecasts for MY 2018/19. While almost certain to vary fr...
WASDE Soymeal
The U.S. soybean crush for 2018/19 is projected at 1,995 million bushels, up slightly from the revised 2017/18 forecast with higher soybean meal disappeara...
WASDE Soybeans
The 2018/19 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks compared to 2017/18. The soybean crop is projected at...
WASDE Corn
Total U.S. corn use in 2018/19 is forecast to decline modestly from a year ago on reductions in domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI)...
WASDE Wheat
The 2018/19 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,821 million bushels, up 5 percent from the prior year. The year-over-year increase is due to greater harveste...
Closing Futures Prices
Note: Starting 14 May, the tables currently displayed in “Closing Futures Prices” will instead appear in Market Commentary. Today’s closi...
Naturally Unnecessary; Legally Novel; Iran Impact
Naturally Unnecessary Members of the U.S. Congress representing honey and maple syrup producers have added language to appropriations legislation that woul...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy traders are in a waiting game for news on Chinese trade and NAFTA as well as the 10 May release of USDA’s WASDE. The May report may not...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 April-4 May 2018 As the week in review was a holiday period, prices did not significantly change, especially against the last wee...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Futures Prices
Note: Starting 14 May, the tables currently displayed in “Closing Futures Prices” will instead appear in Market Commentary. Activity in the Chi...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Trading in Chicago was quiet ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE. The wheat markets, receiving favorable weather reports for the U.S. and Black Sea regions, we...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomic Trends Just a War of Words? USDA’s March figures for U.S. agricultural exports to China, detailed in its 6 May data release, reflect a...
Market Commentary
As most expected, President Trump announced the U.S. was withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear pact with Iran with the intention of resuming sanctions against...
No Pain, No Gain
U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member Benjamin Cardin (D-Maryland) had criticism yesterday for both former President Barack Obama and curr...
Three Key Senate Primaries; Senate Ag Committee Members’ Races
Today is primary Tuesday for the Republican Senate races in three key states: West Virginia, Ohio and Indiana. Each has a contested Republican primary and...
Oilseed Highlights: Chinese Soy Imports; Damaged Ship Berth; Argentine Rain
VAT Reduction Causes Chinese Soybean Imports to Decline in April Chinese soybean imports fell to only 6.9 MMT last month, down 13.7 percent from April 2017...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Futures Prices
Note: Starting 14 May, the tables currently displayed in “Closing Futures Prices” will instead appear in Market Commentary. Today’s closi...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
It was a day of cautiously trading the fundamentals ahead of the May WASDE. Corn and soybeans headed higher in modest volume while the wheat markets were m...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Ministry of Agriculture is making efforts to reduce the planting of major water-consuming...
An Interesting Week
This should be an especially interesting week for grain and soy markets. First and foremost is President Trump’s announcement regarding the status of...
Future of Interest Rates
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on 1-2 May and decided to leave interest rates unchanged. The June meeting, however, will likely be another st...
Asynchrony and Hypocrisy; Amara’s Law
Asynchrony and Hypocrisy The WTO held a full membership meeting today at which Director General Roberto Azevêdo urged members to tackle systemic issu...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
USDA will release the May WASDE on Thursday, which will include its first glimpse at the 2017/18 U.S. supply and demand estimates. It will presumably use t...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Market Commentary
Markets started lower Sunday night, and that weakness accelerated into widespread selling across the wheat and soybean markets today. Some of the same bear...
Closing Futures Prices
Note: Starting 14 May, the tables contained within the “Closing Futures Prices” article will be moved to Market Commentary. Activity in the Chi...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian market remained under pressure last week as U.S. negotiators traveled to China to resolve the escalating trade war. It was ru...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained stable for the old crop positions last week. However, it was firmer for the new crop despite the ruble’s...
International High Ground; GMO Non-Labeling; Cheez Whiz
International High Ground U.S. President Donald Trump has not been wrong in his premise that international trading rules are asynchronous nor in his effort...
More Meetings on RIN Price
The series of White House meetings on an administrative fix to the costs of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), which began in December 2017, will con...
U.S. and World Wheat Production Growing Smaller
We’ve been updating our ideas on U.S. wheat production over each of the past few months, and the primary reason for doing this so early in the season...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Thursday night session mixed and traded that way until news the U.S. trade delegation to China was headed home without any positive ann...
Closing Futures Prices
Note: Starting Monday (14 May), the tables contained within the “Closing Futures Prices” article will be moved to Market Commentary. WPI...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Subsidy for Sugarcane Growers Unable to pay for sugarcane deliveries because of high input costs and low sugar prices, the sugar industry approached the go...
Market Commentary
Grain and, especially, soy futures played a waiting game overnight and again during the day session, anticipating some news from the trade discussions betw...
Cultured Meat; Animal Rights
The Strange Culture that Led to Cultured Meat For 40 years or more, a debate has been waged about the impact that the animal rights movement has had on the...
Oil versus Corn; Payment Limits; GMO Travails; Rural-Urban Inverse
Oil versus Corn The White House will host a meeting with U.S. senators next week on biofuels policy. The debate is over two issues: 1) granting waivers to...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Plan; Soy Export Sales; China’s Soybean Purchases
China’s Emergency Program to Boost Soybean Plantings The Chinese government has implemented an “emergency” campaign to incentivize farmer...
Commodities Are Back in Style
There is an old saying that claims everything that goes around will come around. This is one way of describing a cycle, and the commodity business and mark...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Global weather continued to spur fund buying in corn and wheat while soybeans were pulled lower by uncertainty on the trade outlook. The U.S. and China are...
Export Sales
This week’s Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market’s likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export p...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were in a corrective mode overnight. Prices for soybeans, wheat and corn edged a few cents lower after Tuesday’s broad May Day...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Please note that because of the May holidays, there are no Russian market updates this week. Russia: Planting Update According to the Russian Minist...
Fake Name Marketing; Transatlantic Farm Policy Hurdles
Fake Name Marketing The U.S. meat industry has taken note of France’s new law banning the assignment of traditional meat names to new protein manufac...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Trading was quiet in the ag markets today with wheat mostly higher, soybeans lower, and corn unchanged ahead of the U.S.-China trade talks this week. Plant...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds China Looks to Russia for Alternative Soybean Supplies With a trade war looming between the U.S. and China, much of the commentary has focused on...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Inspections; Canadian Plantings; Tighter Global Soyoil Stocks
Higher USDA Soybean Inspections Last Week USDA reported on Monday that 679,379 MT of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export last week, up 44.3 percent fro...
Market Commentary
Much of the world has been enjoying the May Day holiday, which probably limited overnight trading volumes. Overnight futures prices found soybeans and whea...
419 Scam; Bucking the Ethanol Trend
419 Scam After meeting with Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari yesterday, President Donald Trump said with confidence that Africa’s most populace co...
Lawmakers Seeking Immediate E15 Waiver and Long-Term Reform
30 days from today, E15 will no longer be marketable for most automobiles and light-duty vehicles. Without an exemption from the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP)...
High Stakes Game in China
Agricultural production along the southeastern coast of North Carolina is far down the list of the area’s biggest and most prominent economic activit...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Dry weather across the world pulled wheat markets higher while corn followed on supply concerns of its own. Soybeans were reluctant followers of the wheat...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco is said to be the destination for the first grain shipment from Thunder Bay, Canada after the l...
Import, Not Just Export; Missing Consumers; Attack on Scale; Miscellaneous Policy Shorts
Import, Not Just Export The Indian government is developing a new national agricultural trade policy that is intended to boost the country’s export o...
Farm Bill Outlook in House and Senate
House Ag Committee Chairman Michael Conaway (R-Texas) would like to have the farm bill on the House floor during the week of 14 May. He is hoping that all...
2018 Crop Production May Not Be So Perfect
After noting in last Monday’s analysis (see Ag Perspectives, 23 April) that markets will be on cruise control for a month or so until crops get plant...
Market Commentary
Markets were stronger overnight, led by (of all things) wheat. There were several reasons for that strength last night and today, including the following:...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina The holiday in Argentina has made for a light news week so far. The center of Buenos Aires received strong rains over the weekend, putti...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The market is closely watching the weather development in southern Russia and Ukraine as the drought has been persisting for about three week...
House Farm Bill Creates Regulatory Structure For Emerging Industry
Tucked away in the House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is the cornerstone of a new regulatory scheme for crop inputs. The difference with the pote...
Trump’s Truth and Benefits
Most nations practice some form of industrial planning, but globalization is now revealing its downside implications. National subsidies have not only wrec...
Stats Canada Surprises!
Stats Canada released its initial planting estimates for Canada this morning, which included several significant surprises such as the following: Canola a...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally firm overnight. That “firmness” then blossomed into a full-fledged, general rally this morning, led by big gains in the...
Ag Review - April 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook f...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Wheat Procurement Could Be Problematic In the first three weeks of the wheat procurement drive, state and central agencies have acquired more than 2...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade found corn and wheat futures in a mild retreat from yesterday’s big gains, while soybeans were quietly higher. Trading volume was rat...
Terrible Trade Negotiators; Polticized Trade
Terrible Trade Negotiators Donald Trump’s accusation about the trade negotiators from past administrations was that they were terrible. However, the...
USDA’s PDI Report; First Quarter Protein Production; Global Pork
USDA’s 2017 PDI Report USDA released the 2017 annual Meat Animals Production, Disposition, and Income (PDI) report today. It showed cash receipts fro...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Media and Soybean Sales to China; Egypt Buys Vegoil
U.S. Soy Export Sales Exporters of U.S. soybeans and soy products must have been somewhat disappointed with today’s USDA export sales report, which i...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
The New York Times and GM Foods
Earlier this week, there was an interesting addition to the seemingly endless debate over genetic modification of foods and crops used in livestock and con...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Improved Southern Plains weather left the wheat market lower today while soy rallied on hopes of disarmament in the U.S.-China trade war. Corn was flat to...
Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Market Commentary
Follow-through from Tuesday’s rally sent grain and soybean prices higher overnight in moderate volume. Word late Tuesday that U.S. Treasury Secretary...
Goose versus Gander; Selective Precaution; Overused Residue
Goose versus Gander Left-leaning activist groups lacked trust in the EU’s food safety regulations, and now the European Food Safety Authority has ann...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16-20 April 2018 Prices continued to grow due to devaluation of the ruble, which began 6 April, and rising export prices. The price...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Global wheat worries and technical buying lifted the entire grains complex today. The drought in the Southern U.S. Plains, along with increasingly worrisom...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Surges as Prices Decline The steady buildup of imported soybean stocks, falling live pig prices and a decline in the prices for...
Market Commentary
Small-scale liquidation continued in overnight trade, although trading volume declined from recent overnight sessions. Price changes were minimal, but afte...
Outlook for Protein Prices
USDA released its monthly Cold Storage report today, which showed a steady supply of proteins. It indicated the following as of 31 March: Chicken w...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; China’s Soy Imports
More U.S. Soybeans Sold to Argentina This morning USDA announced that 130,000 MT of U.S. soybeans had been sold to Argentina, which included 60,000 MT for...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Fair Trade Impacts; Views on Trade Policy, Feed Grains
Fair Trade Impacts Harvard University researchers Raluca Dragusanu and Nathan Nunn analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 24260) the impact of fair trade coffee...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grains market rebounded from overnight pressure on continuing weather problems for the world wheat crop and USDA’s announcement that the U.S. sold 13...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Saudi Arabia is the new destination for one of the large sorghum vessels being rerouted from China due...
Dreaming Up Excitement
The U.S. spring planting has finally begun. There is an adage that crops always get planted, and we believe this to be true even if what gets planted is no...
Markets in Neutral
Market are shifting more into neutral now that weather across the Corn Belt and northern Plains is finally starting to turn spring-like and even summerish...
Fake Animal Welfare; Fake Meat
Fake Animal Welfare The Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST) today released a study on the status of animal welfare knowledge and practic...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s soybean market remains volatile, although it is perhaps less so than in early April. Traded volume has been huge with the vo...
Market Commentary
Markets surprised the trade a bit and opened with small gains Sunday night, led by KC wheat despite the rainfall across portions of the southern Plains har...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained firm last week as the challenging domestic logistics in Russia and slow farmer selling are supporting the old c...
Cattle On Feed
USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report last Friday. The total number of cattle in feedlots with a 1,000 plus capacity as of 1 April was 11.7...
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal...
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight, and that trend continued into the day session. One word that described today’s market action was weather, which is look...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle on Feed in U.S. feedlots of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on April 1, 2018. The inventory was 7 percent above April 1, 2017 – a...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However,...
Ag Implications of Legalizing Marijuana
Attorney General Jeff Sessions released a memo in January (see Ag Perspectives, 5 January) rescinding the so-called Cole memo, issued by Obama administrati...
Pig in an R&D Poke; Regenerative Economics; Language Squeeze
Pig in an R&D Poke Various coalitions of U.S. agricultural research universities are lamenting that the House Agriculture Committee-approved farm bill...
Market Commentary
In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much r...
Cattle on Feed; Farm Bill Update
Cattle on Feed Tomorrow USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report. The industry’s pre-report estimates peg the total number on feed a...
More Tales from Export Sales
Insofar as cash and futures markets for grain and the soy complex are concerned, the impacts of U.S. trade policy issues are ultimately measured by the vol...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Poor Yields in Rio Grande do Sul; Argentine Soy Crop
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated the week ending 12 April was well above average for U.S. soybeans. Net sales t...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Thursday trading was low and slow in the corn and soybean markets while wheat was higher on the back of continued dryness for the Plains. The Export Sales...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 April 2018 The key factor influencing the Russian grain markets was the U.S. introduction of new sanctions on 6 April, which ca...
UnSNAPped and Prop 2; CRP Crossover; Sorghum Numbers
UnSNAPped and Prop 2 The U.S. House Agriculture Committee today approved H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, but it passed along party lines...
Market Commentary
Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting t...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course With the brief holiday concluded, the increased cost of soybeans and reduced crush output pushed soymeal invento...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Wheat led the grains complex higher today on a drier weather forecast for the parched Southern Plains. Corn and soybeans traded both sides of unchanged in...
Safeguard and Security; Ugly Analysis; Trade Agreement Certainty
Safeguards and Security The Trump administration specifically asserted the “national security” rationale in applying duties to imported steel a...
Market Commentary
Trade issues with China continue. In an antidumping action, its government declared a study has shown that U.S. grain sorghum has been sold to Chinese user...
Signs of Life for Black Sea Wheat Futures
The production of wheat as a cultivated food crop began before recorded history. It was almost certainly the first crop of any kind to be traded between di...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush Report; Indian Monsoon; Braziian Soy Production
NOPA’s March Soybean Crush a Record Monthly High Yesterday the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its monthly crush report for M...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Farm Bill Markup Tomorrow
The House Ag Committee is scheduled to mark up the chairman’s draft of the farm bill tomorrow. The whole process is still encumbered by some partisan...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Grain trading was mixed and moderate volume today with little fundamental news to shape the market’s direction. The weather is cold and rainy across...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE/EASTMEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian government has set its purchase price for local wheat, and the highest quality is fixed at...
Abe-Trump Tête-à-Tête; Milk Shake
Abe-Trump Tête-à-Tête Donald Trump wants a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) with Japan, only rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership...
Ethanol Regulatory and Policy Options
Last week was a very volatile week for biofuels policy. The president said the administration is very close to approving a year-round waiver for E15 as wel...
Barley Supplies Will Be Smallest in Over 25 Years
Market commentaries rarely discuss any crops other than corn, wheat or soybeans. This is because they have futures markets, and that means speculators. Ano...
Market Commentary
Markets were again soft to start the Sunday night session and the week. Soybeans traded mostly back and forth overnight. Wheat markets were quite weak, tho...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans After the instability of two weeks ago, soybean trading around the world was steadier last week. Since the Chinese prime minister announced then t...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week as offers for Russian 12.5 pro were difficult to find below $215/MT FOB. The Russia-U.S. tensions h...
Cruel, Disastrous, Partisan Farm Bill
Traditionally, farm bills have been the paragon of congressional bipartisan comity. However, that has seemingly come to an end. The 2014 Farm Bill took two...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
U.S. Soybean Numbers Still Bearish
The U.S. soybean market has had a bearish fundamental outlook for well over a year. Record U.S. and Brazilian crops in 2017 pushed world supplies to record...
Market Commentary
Markets all started easier Thursday evening and finished the night session mixed with corn down less than a penny, soybeans up 1-2 cents, KC and Chicago wh...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
You Were Close
Respondents to WPI’s last online survey expressed the view that relations with North Korea reflected a troubled area that is slightly more likely to...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Starts; New Crop Quality Issues Unseasonal rains across the wheat belt (north India) in the last week have somewhat damaged the crop, whi...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the big mover during the overnight session. Its direction was downward as weather models indicated that after another seven days of dry condition...
Huge Day for Ag Policy
It was a huge day for agriculture policy in Washington today with three major developments: The House Agriculture Committee released the Chairman’s...
Trade War Aid for Farmers
U.S. farmers rightly see themselves as being extremely vulnerable to repercussions from President Trump’s nationalistic “cut the balance of tra...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Argentine Soybeans; Impact of Late U.S. Winter
Large Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report showed last week was again brisk for U.S. soybeans and products. Importantly, it di...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Today’s Export Sales report from USDA held vastly different information for commodities in the grains complex. The report was decidedly bearish wheat...
Strategies Needed for Trade and Development; RFS Fix; Organic Death
Strategy for Trade Business groups told the U.S. Congress this week that the government needs a strategy for approaching China. In truth, there are many ar...
Export Sales
Commodity Analytics shows the most recent data for grain export sales and shipments along with historic patterns. Current deviations from historic norms po...
Market Commentary
A war of words between the U.S. and Russia over a possible U.S. missile strike against the Syrian regime, intended as a response to its purported gas attac...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 April 2018 Domestic grain prices continued to rise in the European part of Russia because of high demand from foreign importers,...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
After yesterday’s relatively calm WASDE report, the markets traded a lackluster day as well. Corn and soybean futures traded both side of unchanged w...
Senator Chamberlain; Catharsis and Anecdote; Go India!
Senator Chamberlain The Trump administration proposes to compensate American farmers for any adverse fallout from its efforts to secure greater trading rig...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Rises Last week marked the annual Qingming Festival Holiday, also known as Tomb-Sweeping Day, which symbolizes the renewal...
Fake Analysis; Dubious Compensation; Schizophrenic Agriculture; MENAvoid
Fake Analysis There are various interpretations of the relative success or failure of President Trump’s provocative approach to trade policy. The ana...
Market Commentary
Market participants had plenty to think about today. In an anticipated speech, China’s President Xi said that he favored cutting tariffs on auto impo...
Commodity Markets Subject to Great Policy Risks
Markets could get difficult to trade moving forward. If the tariff and trade sanction threats weren’t enough, the promises of assistance for farmers...
USDA’s April WASDE
The April WASDE is sometimes viewed as a way station between the end-of-March planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports and the May WASDE, which inc...
Oilseed Highlights: Soybean Sales and Shipments; WASDE Report
Soybean Exporters Realigning Sales/Shipments Due to Possible Chinese Tariff China’s announcement that it will impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soyb...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
WASDE Soyoil
USDA projects U.S. soybean oil price at 30.5 to 32.5 cents per pound for 2017/18. USDA’s global oilseed forecasts include lower production, exports,...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
WASDE Soymeal
Higher U.S. soybean meal prices have supported crush margins and U.S. soybean crush is projected at a record 1,970 million bushels. USDA’s global oil...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA projects U.S. soybean data changes consisted of increased crush, lower seed and residual use, and lower ending stocks for 2017/18. U.S. soybean...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced Argentina corn production is due to lower harvested area and yield. Yield results seem to have been below expectations and dry condition...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that world wheat supplies in 2017/18 will be nearly 3.0 million tons larger as production is raised to a new record of 759.8 million - prima...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS North African buyers of French wheat are finding that their shipments are delayed because of railway str...
Budget Baseline and the Farm Bill
Today the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its 10-year (2019-2028) baseline projection of the federal budget. The document is usually issued in J...
U.S. HRW Production Slipping; HRS Acres Important
The previous early look at potential U.S. 2018 wheat production (see Ag Perspectives, 9 March), using the table below, was before last month’s releas...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight, led by the soy complex with wheat also strong and corn firm. Weekend news shows seemed to hint that there will be no trade w...
Unhidden Trade War
There is the proposition that because there is presently no actual exchange of retaliatory or counter-retaliatory tariffs between the U.S. and China, there...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans The markets were incredibly volatile last week, perhaps the most they’ve been in history. Theoretically, cash basis should be more stable th...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Pricing Tactics
The most painful event for most commodity traders is failing to enter a trade that was correctly anticipated. The second - and most destructive - is to be...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat There were no changes in the Black Sea market last week. The Russian domestic market was stable except for the approximate $4/MT increase in...
Assault on RINs
By early next week, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt is expected to present President Trump’ with a list of options regarding biofuels policy and ways...
Deep Water; Economic Truth; Double Squeeze; WTO Weaknesses
Deep Water USDA ignored the advice of the National Organic Standards Board (NAOB) and organic hardliners by allowing the continued use of carrageenan in or...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
China’s Soybean Stocks versus U.S. Exports
Can China use its large soybean stocks to punish the U.S. in a soybean trade war? Maybe, but it will be very difficult to do so. Recently, some analy...
Market Commentary
Last night’s trade appeared to be headed toward steady or perhaps slightly higher openings following yesterday’s rebound in corn and wheat futu...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected t...
Will the U.S. Ever Export a Soybean Again?
Those of us who might watch any of the various business news channels often wonder just how good their information is. This question becomes more important...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade saw grain and soy prices continue the recovery that began during Wednesday’s day session, which followed the major sell-off immediate...
China Proposing Tariffs on U.S. Beef; NAFTA Deal Coming?; Record Red Meat; Changes in Beef Imports
China Proposing Tariffs on U.S. Beef China’s tariffs for U.S. pork products (see Ag Perspectives, 2 April 2018), which are in addition to existing du...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Argentine Soy Quality; Census Export Data; Cargill
An Excellent Week for U.S. Soy Export Sales Today’s USDA export sales report showed last week was very good for U.S. soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. So...
Potential Consequences
China’s announcement of a planned retaliation against the 25 percent U.S. tariff on $50 billion worth of its exports was released during the Tuesday...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
World weather worries sent the entire grains complex higher in today’s trading, with corn and wheat futures advancing beyond Tuesday’s pre-Chin...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Trade War Adjustments; Imports Too!
Trade War Adjustments Back in 1973, the U.S. imposed a soybean export embargo and then export licensing requirements due to short supply concerns. The resu...
Export Sales
This week’s Export Sales report from USDA offers insight into the grain market’s likely price pattern going forward. Based on historic export p...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26-30 March 2018 Domestic feed grain prices continued growing due to stable demand from exporters. Milling wheat export prices were...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Market Commentary
Yesterday the Trump administration detailed a list of about 1,300 items imported from China that it intends to subject to a 25 percent tariff to offset $50...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The fireworks started at 3 AM in the grains market this morning, coinciding with China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ag products, inc...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Drip, Drip, Drop; Populist Modi
Drip, Drip, Drop USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue told his audience at Michigan State University this week that the Trump administration’s trade policy ap...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Continues to Fall as Utilization Rates Decrease With crushers reducing their operational output, China’s soymeal inventory...
Fear and Panic: Overreaction in the Soybean Pits
Early this morning, China announced U.S. soybean imports would be subjected to a 25 percent tariff. The move comes in response to proposed U.S. tariffs on...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s big trading volume and price declines were tempered overnight with soybeans and wheat turning a bit higher while corn mostly stayed withi...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Export Taxes;Ukrainian and Chinese Soy; Biodiesel Updates
Argentina Changes Basis for Export Tax Payments The Argentine government has modified its export tax system for soybeans and soy products as well as other...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Trump’s Curious Trade Policy; Alt “Meat”
Trump’s Curious Trade Policy Developments in U.S. trade policy are not consistent with the professed message of the Trump administration. For example...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Early gains in corn and soybeans gave way to selling pressure this afternoon while poor crop condition ratings for winter wheat boosted prices across the b...
Record Energy Exports
The geopolitics of trade has been in the news and on the negotiating table since the first year of the Trump administration, all casting the U.S. as coming...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
News Updates Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Oman Food Investment Holding Company (OFIC) is planning to invest $100 million in a fa...
A Wary Soybean Market
The fundamental soybean supply/demand outlook has fallen into a classic tug-of-war between competing bullish and bearish factors, which makes forecasting t...
Hogs and Pigs Report; Chinese Tariffs
USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report last Thursday and before the three-day market holiday. The total 1 March hog and pig inventory was 72.9 mi...
Corn’s the Game (Maybe)
WPI previously took an early peek at the potential 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook (see Ag Perspectives, 19 March) and estimated U.S. farmers would plant a total...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Market Commentary
Markets had strong buying in the Sunday night session following the three-day Easter weekend and USDA’s bullish corn/soybean acreage estimates of las...
The Worst is Coming
It is difficult for U.S. agriculture to see any positives in Trump trade policy, and following are a few examples why: The harsh rhetoric associated with...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Last week was again volatile for South American soybeans. Brazil’s basis continued rising until USDA shocked the markets on Thursday with sh...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Domestic prices in Russia were stable except for the $4/MT increase in the southern region, which is close to the Black Sea and Azov Sea port...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Understanding U.S. Trade Policy; Steel and Milk; WTO Tech Focus; Ag Spending and Hopeful
Understanding U.S. Trade Policy Most leaders of international organizations refrain from publicly criticizing any member of their group. However, World Tra...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets basically just marked time overnight and this morning until USDA released its quarterly stocks and prospective planting repor...
Stocks and Prospective Plantings
USDA’s 1 March quarterly stocks and initial planting intentions reports have a history of providing market-moving surprises, and today’s releas...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; U.S. Soy Stocks and Plantings; South American Soy Crops
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report for the week ending 22 March was a bit disappointing for soybeans but positive for soyme...
Pending Hogs and Pigs Report; Calf Crop Progress; Cell-Cultured Meat
Hogs and Pigs Report Coming USDA releases its quarterly hogs and pigs inventory report after trading closes today and ahead of the three-day holiday...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
“Where did those acres go?” That’s the question analysts around the world are asking in the wake of toady’s USDA reports. The repor...
Export Sales
Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...
Power of Phonies; Weakness of Sanctions; Meat with Crossbones
Power of Phonies According to Polish author Tomak Jankowski, the biologist Trofim Lysenko sought to make a name for himself in the early days of the Soviet...
Market Commentary
Low volume and mixed price movement for grains and the soy complex characterized both overnight trading and the day session. Most traders seem to be positi...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for gra...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19-23 March 2018 Domestic feed grain prices continued to rise, primarily due to higher demand from exporters. However, FOB prices st...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
The fireworks were in the livestock futures markets today as lean hog futures pulled an impressive reversal on big trading volumes. This support spilled ov...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Pig Prices Fall for 10th Straight Week Despite optimism from some market observers regarding the near and mid-term strength of China’s...
Trade Somersaults; Self-Inflicted Hurt
Trade Somersaults Analysts are now writing that U.S. trade policy is destabilizing the world economy, though Trump supporters would say that global trade p...
Market Commentary
In contrast to the heavy volume during the Sunday/Monday overnight session, trade was very light last night and in the early morning. Futures price action...
Biofuel and Bankruptcy
Yesterday was the deadline for the bankruptcy case filed by Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES). A settlement approved by a federal judge includes a contro...
A Key Week for the Market
The factors that affect the grain and soy markets’ price movements are obviously always changing. However, there are times when the potential for the...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Overnight trading was slow and mixed with little direction ahead of Thursday’s plantings report. The day session featured mixed trade that ended most...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Soy Crop; U.S. Soymeal Export Sales to Europe; Chinese Crush Subsidies and Soy Imports
Argentine Weekend Rainfall Disappoints The weekend rains predicted for the driest areas of Argentina largely did not occur. There were some in the far nort...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egyptian officials say that the government plans to buy at least 4 MMT of local wheat in 2018, an incre...
High Leverage, Limited Results; Pathogens and Probiotics
High Leverage, Limited Results President Donald Trump’s strategy of using the imposition of tariffs to extract trade concessions is working but not i...
30 March Planting Intentions
As has been noted, USDA will release its 2018 planting intentions estimates on 30 March at noon (EDT), which will be the first ones for the year that are b...
Market Commentary
Markets were higher overnight in very good trading volume for a night session. U.S. equity markets were expected to recover some of Friday’s big loss...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The South American markets keep rising as President Trump’s announcement last week that he would impose duties on Chinese st...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally,...
March Cattle on Feed
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report, released 23 March, showed the number of cattle in 1,000+ capacity feedlots at 11.7 million head as of 1 M...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was again little changed last week. Russia’s domestic prices as well as the ruble remained stable. Its new crop 12...
Cattle on Feed
United States Cattle on Feed up 9 Percent on March 1, 2018. Placements in feedlots during February 2018 were 7 percent above 2017. Marketings of fed cattle...
Trade Wars and Surrender; Compensating the Victims; African Opportunity
Trade Wars and Surrender With this week’s retaliation announcements by China and the EU, the trade war has begun. Then again, all trade and trade pol...
Ag Highlights of Budget Bill
The president signed the omnibus spending bill today after a brief veto threat over the lack of a legislative provision for the Deferred Action on Childhoo...
Market Commentary
Overnight volume was big with markets down significantly on the heels of the U.S. equity markets’ collapse after commodity trading closed yesterday...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the lat...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Will the trade dispute with China become the “Black Swan” event for 2018 markets? Market chatter today would suggest it will, but as John Baize...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Shows Deficit While the government of India (GOI) has forecast the 2017/18 soybean crop at 11.39 MMT, the trade and indus...
Export Sales
U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...
More Europe First; Taxing Ideas; Poor FTA Choice; “Unknown” and “May”
More Europe First The European Parliament will vote on a report from its agriculture committee that proposes subsidizing protein crops. Emphasized in the r...
Market Commentary
The weekly USDA/FASS export sales report has been delayed until tomorrow (Friday) morning because of the winter storm that forced the closure of government...
Sound and Fury Over Trade
Did the increasing globalization of world economies and politics lead to expanding world trade, or did expanding world trade lead to increasing globalizati...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Removes Biodiesel Duties; Reality for China on Soybeans
EU Removes Antidumping Duties on Argentine and Indonesian Biodiesel Imports The EU has removed antidumping duties on biodiesel imports from Argentina and I...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
Wheat – particularly KC HRW futures – rose today on continued drought/heat for the Southern Plains states while corn and soybean futures were l...
Ag Review - March 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook f...
Cattle on Feed Estimates; China’s Retaliation
Cattle on Feed USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on...
Market Commentary
To no one’s surprise, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its interest rate a quarter-percent to a still his...
Tough and Crazy; Ethanol Rescue; Functional Congress; Export only Agriculture
Tough and Crazy The EU issued its 10 pages of proposed retaliation products in response to President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, and now U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12-16 March, 2018 Domestic feed grain prices grew significantly, especially in the European part of Russia and particularly for corn...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
CBOT row crop futures traded a quiet day with little news to elicit excitement ahead of the Prospective Plantings report. CME livestock futures, on the oth...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Again as Pig Prices Fall Further China’s estimated nationwide soymeal inventory reached just under 800,000 MT as of...
China Differences; Might at WTO; Hiding Behind the Law
China Differences A hog slaughter plant was rejected in the U.S. farm state of Nebraska for not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) reasons, but scale production is vie...
Waiting on a Budget; Seeking a Tax Fix
Congress is completely consumed by the spending bill, which was to have been unveiled today. Indeed, it’s nearly halfway through FY 2018, and federal...
Market Commentary
During overnight trading, grain and soy markets tried to recover from the beating they took on Monday but with very limited success. Prices were firmer, al...
2018/19 U.S. Wheat Outlook By Class
U.S. wheat futures markets have been buffeted by a number of sometimes conflicting fundamental trends in the last nine months. Very low wheat prices in 201...
Summary of Futures
Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...
Closing Futures Prices
Today’s closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their change...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up
CBOT grain futures were largely beneficiaries of a dead cat bounce today – lead by soybean futures – while livestock futures continued their im...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt is adjusting its ration card system, raising the value from $1.17/month to $2.78/month due to inc...
Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Rain; Brazil’s Soy Yields; China’s Soybean and Corn Plantings
Weekend Rains Received in Some Areas of Argentina After months of essentially no rainfall, 1-2 inches (2.5–5 cm) were received in parts of Argentina...
WTO Makeover; Taxing Success; Ring-Fence Skepticism
WTO Makeover There is reasonable concern that the Trump administration is blocking the appointment of appellant judges at the WTO as part of a goal to impl...
The MY 2018/19 Sleeper Crop
WPI is not alone in pegging corn as the potential “sleeper” crop in MY 2018/19. World corn ending supplies have been edging lower in the past f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina It was a quiet week in the soybean market. There are still players with long positions who are offering their final cargoes of what is a...
Summary of Futures
Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...
Market Commentary
Markets started the Sunday evening session with across-the-board losses. KC wheat was the biggest loser, down more than a dime early. The rainfall map for...
Closing Futures Prices
Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changin...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was about unchanged last week. There were no significant moves in the Russian domestic market, and the ruble was slightl...
Trump’s Success M.O.; DBR vs. Pastoralism; Beating GMO Opposition; Farm Bill Fights
Trump’s Success M.O. Melissa Francis, co-host of After the Bell on Fox Business, wrote a piece in today’s Wall Street Journal chiding those who...
Larry Kudlow and Explaining the Coming Trade Deficit Expansion
The vacancy on the White House National Economic Council (NEC), which resulted from Gary Cohn’s resignation after the president enacted steel and alu...