Jerome Powell spoke at a conference last week in Washington, DC. The event was one week after the Fed increased the federal funds interest rate target by a...

Vietnam versus China They are both Communist-governed countries, but China more centrally controls its economy than does Vietnam. Beijing rationalizes its...

As noted before, it is the U.S. Census Bureau rather than USDA that keeps the official count of grain, soybean and soy product exports. USDA’s FGIS k...

Grain and soy markets slumbered through the overnight session with the October WASDE two days away. There was little movement in wheat and corn prices, and...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.645/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.15/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  N...

Brazilian Processors Squeezed by China’s Soybean Purchases Despite a record soybean crop in 2018, Brazil’s processors are not having the banner...

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco has confirmed that it will lift the 135 percent duty on soft wheat imports as of 1 November 201...

Inconvenient Truths In Beijing, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Washington has a "fundamental disagreement" with China on economic and trade...

Wheat, corn and soybean markets are behaving like the corn and soybean harvests, continuing to slog along as if stuck in the mud. Perhaps that is the way i...

In round one of Brazil’s presidential election yesterday, none of the 13 candidates garnered the necessary 50 percent of the vote. Now the top two vo...

The Sunday night session traded slightly higher until prices turned lower early this morning, led by wheat. Markets then opened the day session lower and t...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.665/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.14/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Soybeans Brazil Despite the Chinese holiday, which should have brought a very quiet week, there were some movements on nearby positions as well as on new c...

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. The weather in Russia improved for the spring wheat harvesting in Siberia but remain...

Ethanol stocks, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), are at their highest level since March, and they are also up 8.8 percent ver...

It was a quiet trading session overnight. Corn, soybeans and wheat were all slightly higher with closing gains of a penny, 2 cents and 2-3 cents, respectiv...

China Policy Set This week’s speech by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence outlined the comprehensive approach of the Trump administration toward China, w...

Oilseeds Major Feed Companies Hike Price to Offset Tariffs During the last week of September, several large feed manufacturers, including New Hope Group, C...

One of the big questions that has not yet been answered during this year’s corn and soybean harvest is how and where farmers will store these record...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.6825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.21/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. ...

MSP for Rabi Crops Announced The commitment to double farmers’ income by the Modi government ensured an increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs)...

Low volume, narrow trading ranges and slightly firmer prices characterized trade in the overnight session for grains and the soy complex. The heavy rains d...

Beef and Beans With a surfeit of cheap soybeans (thanks to Chinese tariffs) coinciding with record cattle on feed inventories and strong domestic/export be...

Recession Risks Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein wrote this week in the Wall Street Journal that the U.S. is facing a severe economic downturn...

These are particularly risky times for commodity traders. Raw material markets are being pushed and pulled by geopolitical forces as well as rapidly changi...

India Raises Minimum Price for Rapeseed Faced with farmers protesting low commodity prices, the government of India (GOI) yesterday boosted the minimum pri...

Wheat:  Net sales of 435,300 metric tons for 2018/2019 were down 34 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average  C...

Grain markets were higher amid a lack of farmer selling and forecasts of obnoxiously heavy Midwest rains. Corn and wheat were higher while soybeans found s...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.675/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...

Tuesday’s rumors had the Russian government taking steps to slow the frantic pace of wheat exports. Today it became clear that it did act but not in...

Empty Wheat Deal The new USMCA requires that both Canada and the U.S. give imported wheat no less favorable treatment than is accorded domestic production...

Russian Grain Markets: 24-28 September 2018 Prices moved in different directions during the week in review, but the average prices increased, especially in...

In contrast to yesterday’s enthusiasm, today’s markets were lower in quiet trade. There was little tradeable new information today, with the ma...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.6475/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&...

Corn and soybeans rallied Monday on news of the deal that brought Canada into what is now being called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), while whea...

Farm Bill Timeframe Technically, the U.S. Agricultural Act of 2014 expired at midnight this past Sunday. Some programs ( crop insurance and food aid under...

President Trump is scheduled to be in Council Bluffs, Iowa next week (9 October), and he has hinted that he’ll unveil the administration’s plan...

The Trump administration had set 30 September as the deadline for creation of a new trade agreement to replace the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.675/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.1925/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Higher Forecast for U.S. Soybean Crop INTL FCStone yesterday boosted its forecast for the U.S. soybean crop from 4.782 billion bushels (130.16 MMT) to 4.79...

CBOT trading was relatively subdued today with little new fundamental information coming forth, except the usual cadre of weather forecasts. Wheat futures...

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/ MIDDLE EAST COMMENTS The press in Russia reports that talks are underway with Libya regarding the purchase of 1 MMT of Russia...

Coming right under today’s deadline, last night Canada was added to the trade pact negotiated with Mexico. The update to NAFTA, renamed the U.S.-Mexi...

Defeating USMCA The ink is barely dry on the weekend’s agreement on a U.S., Mexico, Canada Agreement (USMCA) to succeed NAFTA, and opponents are stra...

World crop production has struggled in 2018 after five consecutive years of record output. The Northern Hemisphere growing season is basically now finished...

This was an interesting start to October and the new quarter. Markets were quiet overnight with little price movement. However, that changed significantly...

Soybeans Brazil The market was more active last week as trading houses were able to originate and sell soybeans in short time. China is desperately trying...

The options market correctly anticipated corn futures’ move higher in each of the past two weeks and is forecasting the same again this week. Despite...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.6575/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.095/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. ...

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firmer. If Russia’s export surplus is assumed to be 30 MMT for this year, the approximate 13 MMT it has already...

Enemy of my Enemy The Republic of China (aka Taiwan, formerly Formosa) has few friends. That is because the People’s Republic of China (aka Mainland...

There was much for the markets to deal with today. It was the last day of September and the last day of the quarter; the drama over the Supreme Court nomin...

Today’s USDA quarterly stocks numbers and Annual Small Grains Summary didn’t offer the markets many fresh insights to trade on. The 1 September...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.5625/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.09/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report yesterday after the market close, and it confirmed pre-report industry expectations of more hogs, pigs, fa...

Another Bailout Package for Sugar Sector The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a third package to bail out the sugar industry. Wort...

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Continues Downward Trend Feed sector demand remains strong even as the impact of African swine flu (ASF) has begun to dampen reg...

USDA’s Grain Stocks report was slightly bearish corn and soybeans while the stocks and small grains reports were supportive wheat. Currently, Decembe...

Political and Strategic Analysis Prime Minister Shinzō Abe successfully rebuffed President Donald Trump on bilateral trade negotiations for two years, but...

Grain and soy futures prices turned a bit lower overnight as traders prepared for USDA’s stocks, small grains and winter wheat acreage reports to be...

China, Japan and Canada Trade Developments – or Not During an interview at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event in New York this week, U.S. Trade Represe...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.6475/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

India’s Quest to Export More Soymeal Threatens Domestic Availability  India’s government and soybean processing industry are pressing Chin...

Corn and soybeans moved higher while wheat came under selling pressure as traders adjust positions ahead of tomorrow’s NASS Grain Stocks and winter w...

Once upon a time, grain and soy futures market spreads were major topics for discussion and analysis. However, it seems that interest in futures spreads ha...

Wheat:  Net sales of 657,100 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 40 percent from the previous week and 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. &n...

In advance of USDA’s winter wheat acreage report on Friday, WPI has prepared early forecasts of 2018/19 crop planted area for the U.S. Given current...

Overnight trade in grain and soy futures featured higher prices and modest volume. Soybeans were the leader with the November contract up about 7.5 cents...

Moral-Based Trade III French President Emmanuel Macron sought to add to his own political strength yesterday by saying, “Let’s stop signing tra...

Russian Grain Markets: 17-21 September 2018 Domestic grain prices generally increased during the week, but there were exceptions in a few regions (see belo...

Fund short covering produced another bounce higher in soybean futures while the corn market traded both sides of unchanged. Wheat futures saw selling press...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.63/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.175/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.&n...

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook f...

Editor’s Note: WPI’s weekly China In-Country analysis report will be delayed until later this week due to travel on the part of WPI analysts...

Overnight futures trade showed mixed results as the session recessed. Soybeans were higher by a few cents, but corn and wheat traded lower. The world oilse...

Walk the Trade Talk President Trump gave a buffoonish speech at the U.N. today, which makes it easier to mock his pronouncements. However, there is no shor...

Crude oil prices are at a four-year high and on a trend toward five straight quarters of increases – the longest bull market in more than 10 years. A...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.6375/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.2075/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.&...

USDA will release its annual end-of-September batch of reports on Friday, 28 September. Included will be U.S. quarterly stocks as of 1 September, final pro...

China Now Buying Soybeans from Argentina While China usually sources soybeans from Argentina during May-September and very few in other months, this year w...

Crude oil and an implosion in Argentina’s economy supported corn and soybean prices today while wheat markets ran into technical selling. Global vego...

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Al Dahra Holdings of Abu Dhabi has announced that it will invest $500 million in Romania with the goal...

USDA Should Mimic FDA As noted in Ag Perspectives on 10 August 2018 (see Attacking Fake Food Claims), former FDA official and now Stanford University profe...

Everyone has been so wrapped up in the U.S.-China trade issues plus weather problems in the Black Sea, EU and Australia that they have lost track of a few...

Corn, soybean, and wheat futures were all lower through most of the Sunday evening session. However, wheat futures turned slightly higher early this mornin...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.605/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.27/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. ...

Soybeans Markets After dropping for months under pressure from the U.S.-China trade war, U.S. basis levels reached bottom last week. Buyers from Europe and...

Consistent with last week’s options market signals, corn futures moved higher. The options market expects more of the same this week, with traders&rs...

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market seems to have reached its seasonal bottom. The market in Russia has been under pressure during the past month on fears t...

The cattle on feed (COF) inventory as of 1 September was a record for the month at 11.1 million head, which was also the fourth time in a row that the inve...

Efficient = Sustainable The U.S. soybean industry has been trying to convince the EU that its soydiesel should be considered sustainable under Europe&rsquo...

With only a few days left until FY 2018 concludes on 30 September, this is a good time to look back at the huge changes in fiscal policy over the past year...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.5725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.&...

USDA reports U.S. Cattle on Feed up 6 percent from year ago:  Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlot...

It was an interesting week for market news versus market action. There were actually numerous, somewhat bullish news stories that generated little in the w...

Wheat and soybean markets were lower overnight with corn trading fractionally higher. The big question today was whether yesterday’s strength in corn...

Drop in Vegetable Oil Imports  India’s vegetable oil imports have increased over the years. They rose from 14.42 MMT in 2014/15 (November-Octobe...

The overnight trade was quiet and uneventful with only small price changes. Soybeans traded up 2 cents, Chicago wheat was up about 3 cents, and corn hung a...

Perhaps there should be a rule that anyone whose business is analyzing any kind of market economics must be forced to take some time off and be totally rem...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.525/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. ...

WTO members are asking the U.S. to formally notify the organization of its $12 billion trade aid program to agriculture and explain its details. This is a...

EU Soybean Imports Up, Soymeal Down The EU Commission today reported soybean imports totaled 2.8 MMT as of 16 September and from the beginning of the curre...

Buying activity was huge today with soybeans and corn jumping higher to the surprise of many bears. Early end-user buying strength combined with positive g...

The Week after Florence The North Carolina Department of Agriculture released estimates of the damage from Hurricane Florence, indicating 5,500 hogs and pi...

Wheat:  Net sales of 468,400 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 21 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. &n...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4575/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. ...

The market impact of the latest round of U.S. tariffs on imports from China and the latter’s retaliation seems to have abated. It is now widely assum...

China Agrees on WTO Reform Chinese officials are now echoing some of the WTO reform concepts being pushed in Washington and Brussels. Former Chinese centra...

Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 September 2018 Feed barley prices grew significantly, but other grain prices either increased slightly or remained stable due...

The Closing Bell Wrap-Up is back after covering for WPI’s Bob Kohlmeyer last week. And what a week it was. The WASDE created a bearish selling party...

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Below 1 MMT Strong downstream demand from the feed industry as hog prices continue to surge pushed China’s nationwid...

The cattle and beef markets need clarity. The last Cattle on Feed report was fundamentally bearish, but prices have only gone higher since then. Packer mar...

Taj Mahal Chicken Coups California voters are once again set to roil agricultural producers elsewhere in the nation as they vote 6 November on Proposition...

It was a trade war-influenced day at the CBOT with China adding tariffs to another $60 billion of U.S. products in a retaliatory response to the latest Tru...

NOPA Members’ Record August Crush The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) yesterday released its August soybean crush report. As expected,...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.4325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.&n...

According to President Trump, his take-no-prisoners trade strategy has spurred promising trade talks with India. He said while on the stump in South Dakota...

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS Afghanistan has received the first lot of Pakistan’s 40,000 MT wheat donation. The shipment of jus...

Sino-American Trade War II U.S. President Donald Trump says he will impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of imports from China, perhaps this...

The initial (and minimum) revenue insurance price for the 2019 U.S. winter wheat crop has now been determined. It is based on the daily average of the July...

Corn and soybean prices were lower overnight with wheat prices slightly higher. That trend continued throughout today, but Chicago SRW and KC HRW wheat cou...

In the latest sequence of WPI’s weekly Smile! report, the biggest change is a massive increase in upside volatility for corn futures while soybean an...

Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s soybean market was active last week, especially at the beginning with Chinese buyers securing several vessels. Spot margins...

Yesterday was 16 September, which means that retailers can sell E15 again. Because of the evaporative volatility, it is not sold during the period of 1 Jun...

The EPA is busy with renewable fuel issues. It is reviewing comments on the proposed volume obligations for 2019, which will be finalized by 30 November, a...

Big Iron, one of the largest farm shows in the country, was held this week in Fargo, ND. There is always a large seminar held for farmers during this show,...

Markets traded mixed during the overnight session but closed with wheat up 6-7 cents and small gains for corn and soybeans. Today’s session traded mu...

Trade Policy Mixer China: President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the Treasury Department to move forward with punitive duties on an additional $200...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.5175/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.115/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. ...

Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent hig...

WPI’s recent research suggests December corn futures are likely to see additional selling pressure while a bottom may be approaching for November soy...

Formulaic Trade War Ahead of a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing today on U.S. agricultural trade, USDA released the formula it used to calculate compen...

Trading was double-sided and lackluster today following USDA’s bearish WASDE. Chart and technical conditions are bearish, and that is turning funds i...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.505/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $4.97/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Hurricane Florence and Hogs Hurricane Florence is headed to the Carolinas, and anticipation of its impact on North Carolina’s hog production and proc...

Wheat:  Net sales of 387,600 MT for 2018/2019 were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 16 percent from the prior 4-week average.  ...

Plentiful Soybean Supplies  USDA yesterday confirmed the U.S. will harvest a record soybean crop once again in 2018, forecasting the average national...

Down with the U.S. Dollar European Union President Jean-Claude Juncker is not the first, but he is the most significant world leader to propose shedding th...

The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and afte...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.525/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.0675/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&n...

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 September 2018 Domestic grain prices either grew or remained stable, but the offer is not increasing as producers are awaiting f...

Macro Trends Export Data Reflects Impact of New Tariffs U.S. agricultural exports to China i fell to 488,810.2 MT worth $480.6 million in July, the lowest...

The 2018/19 global oilseed outlook includes higher production, reduced trade, and increased stocks compared to last month.  Soybean oil prices ar...

USDA estimates that U.S. soybean crush is up 10 million bushels and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 845 million bushels, up 60 million fr...

USDA estimates that soybean production is projected at a record 4,693 million bushels, up 107 million on a record yield forecast of 52.8 bushels per acre.&...

USDA estimates that Corn exports for 2018/19 are raised for Ukraine, Serbia, and Paraguay, but lowered for Canada and South Africa.  Imports are...

USDA estimates that global wheat supplies for 2018/19 are raised 4.7 million tons on a 3.4-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks.&nbs...

Risk in the cattle and beef markets is stacked to the downside with large fed cattle supplies, growing cold storage stocks, and demand steady at best. The...

One of the most controversial EPA actions over the past year has been the granting of hardship waivers for small refiners. Biofuel groups have complained t...

Trade Policy Roundup NAFTA: U.S. and Canadian trade negotiators are working hard and earnestly to reach a bilateral agreement. The Teamsters (trucking) Uni...

Pre-WASDE positioning sent the grains complex lower today, while livestock futures were under pressure from profit taking and lackluster cash markets. Fund...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.6675/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.1875/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&...

Update on Argentine Export Tax Rates Following the report here a week ago on the changes to Argentina’s export taxes (click here), more details have...

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region importers of maize and wheat from Argentina will be facing highe...

The race is on to pass up to 12 appropriations bills before FY 2019 starts on 1 October. However, appropriations will probably instead be provided by a com...

Transatlantic Technical Barrier Mashup Brussels is reportedly and understandably cautious about trade negotiations with the Trump administration. Worse, th...

There are several things to watch for in USDA’s September production estimates and WASDE (supply/demand) revisions that will be released on 12 Septem...

Argentine Export Duties Last week the Argentine government announced an emergency plan to reduce the state deficit, which includes an export duty on agricu...

In the latest sequence of WPI’s weekly Smile! report, the biggest feature is a bullish expectation for December corn futures while traders are bracin...

Markets were quiet overnight in very light trading volume. Everything started the Sunday evening session slightly lower, but wheat moved to small gains ear...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.6725/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. ...

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has been under pressure during the past three weeks as Russian producers and exporters are trying to ship as much as pos...

The conference committee deliberations on the farm bill kicked off this week with the first meeting on Wednesday mostly dedicated to opening statements. Ea...

Tariffs on China President Trump threatened today to impose tariffs on $267 billion worth of imports from China. This is not new as it has been quite trans...

Markets were steady to lower overnight in very light volume. Weekly export sales, delayed a day because of last Monday’s holiday, came in about as ex...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.67/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.1125/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Demand for Quality Malt and Beer Increasing The number of microbreweries has grown from 20 to 120 in the past five years (2013-2018), up 500 percent. New i...

Wheat:  Net sales of 379,800 MT for 2018/2019 were down 8 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.   &nb...

In a story last week that largely went unnoticed, Farm Futures published the results of its survey regarding U.S. farmers’ planting intentions for 20...

Grain and soy futures trade continued to be light in volume and devoid of excitement overnight with limited price movement. This dull pattern carried over...

EU Step Toward U.S. Beef Access Quota This week the European Commission formally asked member states for a mandate to negotiate with the U.S. over guarante...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.6625/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.1375/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. ...

Weighing the Pain Ann Duignan of JP Morgan expresses concern on AgriTalk that the suffering in U.S. agriculture from retaliatory tariffs will put the secto...

Row crops struggled to find interest and/or support today while wheat futures continued their slide on lack of news from Russia. The fireworks this week ar...

As we have occasionally noted, the futures market has a fascination with grain and soybean exports, one that is fueled by the daily reports of large sales...

Brazilian Farmers Squeezed by Higher Truck Freight Rates Farmers in Brazil’s Cerrados region have long been burdened by the high cost of shipping the...

Early firming of prices in the overnight session had some traders hoping that Turnaround Tuesday had been postponed until Wednesday due to the holiday. How...

Recessions and Farm Bills Roughly 52 percent of respondents to WPI’s recent survey (see graph below) believe that a global recession is less likely i...

Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 August 2018 Grain prices were mainly on an upward trend as sellers limited offer.  Milling wheat export prices fell $3/MT...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.6525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close.&...

The CBOT struggled to find traction for a move higher, despite Tropical Storm Gordon’s heavy rains. Corn and soybean yield expectations are holding t...

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Continues Downward Trend With fall approaching and Brazil’s season winding down, crushers have again dialed back activity...

Following the long weekend, corn and soybean futures were quiet with little change overnight. However, wheat futures suffered double-digit losses on wire s...

Both the farm bill and FY 2018 spending authority for the federal government expire on 30 September. This means that in addition to the farm bill conferenc...

Planning for Hunger A study in the journal Science models out the impact of a warmer climate on plant pests and warns temperate northern climates that inse...

Argentina Makes Big Changes to Agricultural Export Taxes Argentine President Mauricio Macri yesterday announced major changes to agricultural export taxes...

Post-holiday trading was active at the CBOT with wheat falling amid the lack of export restrictions from Russia while soybeans traded a mixed day on yet-un...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.6825/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.315/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Iran reports that its local grain purchases now exceed 9.5 MMT, a new record level despite the early ex...

The Labor Day holiday marks the unofficial end of summer in the U.S. with schools reopening, the football season underway, Congress returning to Washington...

The U.S. will celebrate its Labor Day holiday on Monday, 3 September. The markets, and WPI’s office, will be closed that day. We wish you and your fa...

Why Moo and No Squawk? Trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. may not end for a while yet. President Trump does not believe he has yet to achieve m...

A snapshot of the fuel market shows what could be the classic “good news, bad news” scenario for ethanol demand. The good news is that it&rsquo...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.65/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.455/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close.  N...

Stats Canada released their production estimates today which were considered slightly bullish. All of the estimates came in well below the average trade gu...

The roller coaster wheat markets led the CBOT higher overnight. Wheat can’t decide from day to day whether to be bullish or bearish. It was bullish o...

Wheat Prices Rise, Despite Bumper Crop According to the 4th Advance Agricultural Production estimates released this week, India’s wheat production in...

Grain and soy prices posted modest gains during the overnight session. They were led again by wheat, which followed up on Wednesday’s big rally. The...

Next Punch at China The market is correctly reacting to the assumption that President Trump will impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports from China...

The trade mitigation package announced by USDA on 27 August includes direct payments to producers of hogs and milk in addition to those of crops. Below is...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.565/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.35/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  No...

Experienced trade negotiators (we were involved once as an official commercial observer) know that there is one thread common to virtually all internationa...

Crushers’ U.S. Soybean Opportunity Soybean processors in Europe, the Middle East and Asia stand to be very competitive with imported soymeal and soyo...

If yesterday's wheat trade was "Buy the Rumor", today was “Sell the Lack of News” with no additional information coming from Russia regarding t...

Wheat:  Net sales of 414,800 MT for 2018/2019 were up 73 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  ...

In recent years, the last week of August and/or the first week of September have been the best bets for the timing of seasonal lows for CME grain and soy f...

Half-NAFTA Not The Trump White House believes it has Canada cornered, but deft lobbying of the U.S. Congress by Ottawa makes it unlikely that a solely U.S...

Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 August 2018 Milling wheat prices once again continued to rise in the European part of Russia, although it was at a slower rate...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.565/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.4175/bushel, up $0.185 from yesterday's close. ...

Wheat lead the CBOT higher today on concerns that Russia might restrict exports in the near future. Corn and soybeans were reluctant followers with lingeri...

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Declines Slightly Stepped-up utilization rates created a buying opportunity for downstream feed manufacturers and livestock prod...

Trump’s NAFTA Problems  There is a lengthy list of problems and hurdles related to the Trump Administration’s trade agreement with Mexico...

Overnight trading was mixed in terms of price action and unenthusiastic in terms of mood. Word of an agreement between the U.S. and Mexico on ways to chang...

Like many things with Trump’s trade negotiating process, there are perhaps more questions than answers about the newly announced U.S.-Mexico trade ac...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.5625/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&...

Yesterday, USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue announced long awaited details of the aid package promised to U.S. farmers. The $12 billion aid package is to offset...

If you like volatility, the cattle markets are the place. The markets initially treated yesterday’s limit gains with contempt, heading lower in early...

Survey Says: U.S. Farmers Will Plant More Corn and Less Soybeans in 2019 Farmers intend to plant more corn than soybeans in 2019, according to a survey of...

Regional Updates: Mediterranean/Middle East Comments: The Turkish lira’s drop is forecasted to push up inflation in Turkey by as much as 20 percent i...

Opinions on how the president is handling the various trade issues are very wide-ranging across farm country. That isn’t unexpected as there’s...

Freezing Superiority Canadians are the last to admit that it is freezing – their egos are tied to their ability to endure the cold. Thus, Canadian Fo...

Markets were lower again in the Sunday night session as well as throughout today. Corn and soybeans were still suffering a hangover from the Pro Farmer tou...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.615/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.&nb...

In the latest sequence of WPI’s weekly Smile! report, the biggest feature is a bearish expectation for December corn futures while traders are protec...

Soybeans Brazil There was some interesting movement of old crop soybeans last week from Brazil to China. After several days of the weaker real, stronger CB...

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market corrected lower during the past two weeks as it probably rallied too fast and too high in the first 10 days of August, b...

The inventory of cattle on feed (COF) set a new record for the month of August at 11.093 million head (the monthly data goes back to 1996), 489,000 more th...

After a week of anticipation, yesterday USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue announced that the $12 billion trade mitigation package that was expected today will in...

USDA estimated United States Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent for August 2018: Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedl...

Partially Right, Partially Wrong Hiroshige Seko, Japan’s top political leader at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), correctly assert...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.6275/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.&n...

Corn and soybean markets traded a bit better overnight with wheat markets again lower. China’s “low-level” trade delegation went home wit...

GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers usi...

Farmers and the markets were hoping to learn more today about how USDA plans to allocate the $12 billion that the Trump administration has promised to pay...

As of this writing, there is no word from the two-day U.S./China trade meeting that should be about to wrap up. No one expects an agreement to suspend host...

Latest Trade War Outlook The U.S. and China exchanged the latest round of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, imposing 25 percent additional costs on reciproc...

The food marketing chain has been and continues to be one of the most heavily studied subjects related to U.S. and, ultimately, world agriculture. It is a...

Cattle on Feed Tomorrow (after the markets close) USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report. The industry’s pre-report estimates peg the to...

Big Soy Crop for the U.S. But Perhaps Not Brazil The Pro Farmer crop tour across the Midwest ends today. If participants’ findings are correct, the U...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.61/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.4175/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.&n...

The CBOT was slightly lower for most of the day until late-afternoon selling pushed the market to steeper losses. At one point, wheat futures were in the g...

Wheat:  Net sales of 239,800 MT for 2018/2019 were down 70 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average.   Co...

USDA’s aid package for farmers, whose income prospects have been impacted by the administration’s use of higher tariffs as trade policy, is rep...

To NAFTA or Not  Reports indicate that the Trump administration is prepared to announce tomorrow that it has reached agreement with the Mexican govern...

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 August 2018 Grain prices continued to grow in the European part of Russia but decreased in Ural and Siberia as new crop produc...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.6675/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&...

The CBOT continued its trend lower today with little news except more confirmations of large yields. Livestock futures were sharply lower on slow cash catt...

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Rebounds on Stepped-Up Crushing Activity As new shipments of imported soybeans from Brazil continue to arrive here in August, cr...

Quiet overnight trading saw weaker wheat prices, while corn and soybeans traded narrowly on either side of unchanged. Winter wheat futures fell below techn...

The comment period for the 2019 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volume obligations closed on 17 August. There were more than 290,000 comments filed. Some hig...

Capping Farm Subsidies The political left and right are lamenting their failure in this year’s U.S. farm bill debate to more successfully impose stri...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.7425/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close...

Mid-August until mid-September is often relatively quiet or even dull for grain and soy markets because there is not much to inspire trading or move prices...

The CBOT headed lower today primarily on unsurprising results from the Pro Farmer tours and a general lack of fresh news. The weather through the end of Au...

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Muslim religious holiday of Eid Al Adha is being celebrated across the Middle East/North Africa (ME...

Egypt’s Booming Soybean Imports Egypt’s soybean imports have significantly risen due to a combination of sharp increases in soymeal demand from...

Outlook for Negotiation Week China-U.S.: Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen meets with U.S. Treasury Under Secretary David Malpass in an effort...

July data shows that the ag trade situation has been a drag on inflationary pressure, mostly through dropped earnings from exports. Total export prices dec...

Wheat and corn were lower overnight, and the soy complex was firm. The weakness in wheat was caused by a bigger-than-expected fund long position coupled wi...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.765/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close.&...

Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian market had some movement at the beginning of last week, but it then calmed down by Friday due to the news that China and the...

In the latest sequence of WPI’s weekly Smile! report, the most notable features are decreasing expectations for volatility in crops and a huge bearis...

The August USDA WASDE and NASS production estimates raised the U.S. corn yield while increasing both the U.S. and world corn ending supplies slightly. Howe...

NAFTA Close and Far U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced he’s “hopeful that in the next several days we’ll have a breakt...

WOTUS is Back In February, the Trump administration promulgated a “suspension rule” that effectively delayed the implementation of the Waters o...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.7875/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.7975/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Markets were mixed overnight and again today. The night session ended with wheat up 9-11 cents, corn steady to a half-cent higher and soybeans down 5 cents...

It’s been another interesting week in the grain and soy markets, and following are some of the reasons why:  The Trump administration announced...

Dropping Rupee Impacts Imports and Economy The Indian rupee has continued to drop in value against the U.S. dollar. It is currently trading at 70.14 versus...

Yesterday was a macro “risk -off” day as fears that currency and debt issues for emerging economies might spread widely enough to jar world eco...

Trade War Phase II The EU and U.S. have a pathway for resolving trade differences, as wrought as it is with potential disappointment, and now the Chinese a...

Aussie Feeder Cattle Boom  The inventory of Australian cattle in feedlots is at a record high despite bullish grain prices Down Under. The drivers hav...

At this time of the year and, in fact, during the entire summer growing season, grain and soy markets are intently focused on supplies. What will be the le...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.7975/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Dec 18 Wheat closed at $5.62/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. ...

Soybean Futures Jump on News of China Delegation Coming to the U.S. CBOT soybean futures prices rose more than 27 cents/bushel today on a report that China...

China once again made headlines today with the announcement of “low level” trade talks between the Middle Kingdom and the White House. The news...

USDA data for week ending August 9, 2018: Wheat:  Net sales of 803,000 MT for 2018/2019--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the previous...

Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of fav...

Rise Above the WTO Channeling Donald Trump’s incendiary style, the normally thoughtful Kevin Hassett, chair of the White House Council of Economic Ad...

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 August 2018 Grain prices increased due to rising prices on international markets and weakening of the ruble. Milling wheat expo...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.76/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Sep 18 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Livestock futures were higher on modest support while grains futures gave back all of Turnaround Tuesday’s gains. Would that make today a Washout Wed...

Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade disput...

Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbe...

The 2018 Farm Bill is in the House-Senate conference committee. Three former USDA secretaries, Tom Vilsack (Obama), Ann Veneman (Bush 43) and Dan Glic...

Argentina Suspends Export Tax Reductions for Soyoil and Soymeal The government of Argentina today announced that reductions in the export tax rates for soy...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.765/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Sep 18 Wheat closed at $5.4175/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. ...

Receding the Trade War Sinking emerging-market currencies coupled with trade war impacts on economic growth are raising fears of a global recession. China&...

After two days of aggressive selling, the CBOT turned green as a Turnaround Tuesday got underway. Wheat and the soy complex (especially soymeal) lead the w...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Afghanistan is facing its lowest wheat crop sin...

The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned...

Things are bearish for ethanol producers despite a strong gasoline market. Ethanol margins are being squeezed to their lowest point in about six months, mo...

Rationalizing Pre-Existing Policy Chinese Vice Minister Han Jun boasted that in light of the trade war, his country can readily shift its sources for agric...

USDA surprised the markets last Friday by raising its corn and soybean yield estimates significantly from the June report. While increases weren’t un...

Markets were lower in the Sunday evening session as the hangover from last Friday’s bearish USDA corn and soybean numbers continued. The wheat number...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.705/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Sep 18 Wheat closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close.&...

Soybeans China’s soybean demand remains at a standstill for all positions. Last week’s market activity (or lack thereof) was the same as it has...

Over the past two weeks, WPI has started publishing a weekly article containing Implied Volatility “smile” charts for key agricultural commodit...

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was well supported last week. The bearish USDA WASDE report didn’t have a strong impact on the cash prices in Russ...

USDA’s August 2018 estimate is that soybean oil price is unchanged at 28.0 to 32.0 cents per pound. Lower soybean crush for China and rapeseed crush...

USDA’s August 2018 estimate is that crush is raised 10 million bushels to a record 2,040 million on strong soybean meal exports. The soybean meal pri...

USDA’s August 2018 estimate is U.S. soybean production at 4,586 million bushels, up 276 million on higher yields. The first survey-based soybean yiel...

Ethanol production nameplate capacity has exceeded 16 billion gallons, growing more than 700 million gallons or 5 percent from 2017 to 2018. The increase i...

USDA’s August 2018/19 estimate is for larger U.S. corn supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and larger ending stocks. Corn pro...

USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Foll...

USDA’s August 2018 estimate is that U.S. wheat production is lowered 4 million bushels to 1,877 million on a slight reduction in winter wheat and dur...

Attacking Fake Food Claims Proactive work by the U.S. FDA has greatly helped the food industry while its inactions have harmed it. The GMO labeling debacle...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.7175/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Sep 18 Wheat closed at $5.4675/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close.&...

At the end of the day, it was all about what USDA had to say. That turned out to be another bearish report on corn and, especially, soybeans. The wheat num...

Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to ma...

Overnight trade was quiet as expected with traders looking to reduce risk and position in preparation for tomorrow’s mid-session WASDE release. Wheat...

Make it Transparent There is no word at this hour as to the outcome of today’s bilateral trade talks between Japan and the U.S. The talks are proceed...

First Half 2018 Exports Up; Second Half TBD June export numbers show pork shipments down for the month but up for the first half of the year. There were ma...

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.8275/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Sep 18 Wheat closed at $5.645/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.&...

Commodity futures markets thrive on various forms of instant gratification that are capable of immediately moving market prices and providing trading oppor...

Grain and oilseeds did little ahead of tomorrow’s massively important WASDE while cattle futures closed lower on lack of cash market support. Hog fut...

USDA data for weekending August 2, 2018:  Wheat:  Net sales of 317,100 MT for 2018/2019 were down 17 percent from the previous week, but up 5 per...

Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight with little fresh direction, and prices were mostly a bit higher. Much of the selling seemed to be liquidati...

Interstate Pig Rivalry Farmers receive some state-level protections from NIMBYism (not in my backyard) in that someone cannot generally move next to a farm...

Russian Grain Markets: 30 July-3 August 2018 Expecting international market prices to grow further, Russian grain traders limited their offer. Milling whea...

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Grains and oilseed futures were largely flat ahead of Friday’s WASDE report with wheat and soybeans finding small gains near the close. Cattle future...

Macro Trends U.S. Ag Exports Through First Half Of 2018 Show Impact of Tariffs While the effects of China’s trade war with the U.S. have primarily fo...

Grain and soy futures traded higher overnight. Support came from lower weekly crop condition ratings for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat and higher prices...

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

Lucky Policymakers Former U.S. President Bill Clinton had his share of notoriety, but his political survival was based in part due to the fortune of a humm...

USDA will release its August WASDE at Noon EDT Friday, 10 August. The August WASDE is always highly anticipated since it includes NASS’ first estimat...

Grains and oilseeds traded a largely uneventful day while waiting for the USDA’s WASDE report on Friday. Livestock futures were lower with cattle fut...

Mediterranean/Middle East Comments Egypt reports that current wheat reserves will cover its needs for the next four months. Wheat import purchases are fore...

The ongoing conference in Indonesia organized by the U.S. Soybean Export Council and the U.S. Grains Council has featured major discussions about the outlo...

In the complex dynamics of the global economy, it is sometimes difficult to discern what is cause and what is effect. Not surprisingly, however, the Chines...

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

U.S. wheat futures have rallied and exceeded their most recent highs set in June 2017. Chicago December wheat is back pushing against the $6.00 level today...

Soybeans were lower overnight with wheat and corn slightly higher. That was also today’s pattern, except that wheat found good buying soon after toda...

China’s Burdens The U.S.-China trade war is causing causalities on both sides, and following are a sample of China’s.  Some Chinese are be...

Soybeans Last week was another boring one for soybean trading. Brazil’s market is at a standstill with almost no trades, despite some cargoes for Sep...

As noted last week, WPI is starting a new weekly report on the IV “smile” of nearby corn, soybeans, SRW wheat, and live cattle futures. Our goa...

Milling Wheat The Black Sea wheat market was extremely firm last week with domestic market prices in South Russia $9/MT higher while the FOB market rose $1...

On 29 June, the EPA’s Office of Research and Development issued the Second Triennial Report to Congress on Biofuels and the Environment. The report r...

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

Trade War Spin In addition to announcing that it will respond to U.S. tariffs with more duties on American goods, Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said...

It was an interesting week in the markets and it appears the coming weeks and months will also prove to be much more interesting than the last several year...

Markets traded mixed overnight with corn, wheat and soybeans all trading both sides of unchanged. Corn traded from three higher to one lower. Wheat traded...

Congress has a lot to do and a short time to do it. First, the timeline: the fiscal year ends on 30 September, and then about 60 days later, on 6 November,...

Vegetable Oil Imports via South Asian Countries India’s edible vegetable oil imports dropped about 2.23 percent during November 2017-June 2018 to 9.4...

President Trump has called for 25 percent tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese imports, possibly as early as late September, and this has thrown a we...

There are two analytical common threads dominating discussions of the world’s 2018/19 crop cycle thus far. One is the rather spectacular tightening o...

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

U.S.-Sino Tipping Point The Trump administration’s plan to increase the proposed Section 301 tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on $200 billion wo...

USDA Secretary Perdue sliced an American honey-baked ham in Buenos Aires on Tuesday to mark the new market access for U.S. pork in Argentina. He said, &ldq...

According to USDA: Wheat:  Net sales of 382,500 MT for 2018/2019 were down 1 percent from the previous week, but up 21 percent from the prior 4-week...

Higher Costs and Lower Profits for Brazilian Soybean Farmers in 2019 An analyst at Brazil’s investing banking firm Itaú BBA, Guilherme Bellott...

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

Yesterday’s big soybean rally was sponsored by a press report indicating the possibility that the U.S. and China might resume a formal discussion on...

Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 July 2018 Wheat and barley export prices grew as the offer was limited. (Quoted prices are for both the 2018 and previous seas...

The wheat market continued to work its way higher while corn and soybeans retreated lower after yesterday’s gains. Nobody seems to know where the whe...

On Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported May biodiesel production of 149 million gallons, 9 million gallon above April and up...

The Trump administration’s announcement last week of a $12 billion-aid package for struggling farmers impacted by Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S...

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Up Slightly but Relatively Stable With the summer maintenance period beginning to wind down, China’s estimated soymeal inv...

Grain and soy prices firmed overnight as the leading weather models indicated the return of above-normal temperatures and dry conditions to portions of the...

Last Friday the Department of Commerce released its initial gross domestic product (GDP) report for Q2 2018, which showed estimated growth of 4.1 percent...

Naha Tug-of-Trade U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi meet next week (9 August)...

We often say that uncertainty is the lifeblood of commodity futures markets. The greater its perceived level, the greater is the degree of price volatility...

Russia’s Growing Soybean Demand, Production and Imports For the past several years, Russia has been working aggressively to expand its domestic produ...

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...

You knew it had to happen again someday and that day was today. Soybean futures led the CBOT higher (higher!) after reports surfaced that the U.S. and Chin...

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Moroccan government says that crops for 2017/18 are “exceptional” with grain production...

November CBOT soybean futures are 21 cents (2.3 percent) higher as the market digests reports from Bloomberg (yet confirmed by WPI or other news sources) t...

Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve f...

China Rebuts U.S. China’s ambassador to the WTO, Zhang Xiangchen, had clever reactions to the U.S. criticism of his nation’s economic system, b...

Markets started this week on a very strong note. Last week’s rally was mostly the result of concerns about crop production in the EU and Black Sea re...

Despite the recent U.S. tariffs slowing two-way trade traffic, the otherwise booming economy has pushed diesel supplies down to their lowest level in 14 ye...

Markets were higher overnight. They were led again by wheat, which then exploded to gains of 15-20 cents at this morning’s openings. Corn and soybean...

Beyond acting as a price discovery and risk management tool, options on commodity futures have predictive power. The implied volatility (IV) of an option r...

Soybeans The world soybean markets are still dead, including Brazil’s. Chinse demand is covered for August and most of September, leaving potential d...

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is on fire. The reported harvest yields are confirming expectations that they would be 15-20 percent lower than last yea...

The Future Transatlantic Trade War Following the joint EU-U.S. statement solely asserting the “intention” to negotiate a future trade agreement...

In Iowa yesterday, President Trump said the administration is “very close” to granting a year-round waiver for E15 usage. This confirms what he...

Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere,...

Markets were mixed overnight and today. Volume was very light  for corn and soybeans but better than average for Chicago wheat. The markets actually t...

It’s been an interesting week with the following highlights: - USDA’s $12 billion farm rescue plan (income redistribution) didn’t find ma...

Glut Supply of Milk Prompts GOI to Offer Export Incentive When the state government of Maharashtra reduced the the cooperatives’ purchase price of mi...

News that the U.S. and the EU pulled back from a potentially escalating trade war gave financial markets a boost late yesterday, and the agreements between...

Beans and Gas The EU agreed to buy more soybeans and liquified natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. Nothing reflects the EU better playing Trump for a fool than...

Trade isn’t Cattlemen’s Only Beef  We’ve covered in detail the administration’s $12 billion plan to stabilize commodity market...

 Europe’s Promise to Import More U.S. Soybeans a Nothingburger When EU President Juncker met with President Trump yesterday to seek a way to avo...

"Volatility" was the word of the day at the CBOT with wheat futures initially pushing higher before crashing, corn and soybeans moving higher, and the live...

Changes in energy products’ recent price behavior point to potential trading opportunities. Similarly, the momentum indicators in grains show opportu...

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook f...

U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...

For countries that supply renewable agricultural commodities to world buyers, a more perfect world occurs during a year when global demand for a particular...

The agreement between EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and U.S. President Donald Trump may be like the earlier Kim Jong-un/Donald Trump agreemen...

The sharp jump in world wheat prices on the back of wheat production losses in Russia, the EU, Australia and elsewhere along with the government’s $1...

Juncker-Trump Tête-à-Tête U.S. President Donald Trump opened his meeting with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker today by sayin...

Russian Grain Markets: 16-20 July 2018 The domestic grain market was dominated by new crop production. Although harvesting in many regions was interrupted...

Recent price activity for ag, energy, and soft commodities is examined in tabular and graphical format. The most important price analysis is distilled for...